2010-10-26 City of Richmond CEDS Complete Report · John Bennett Robert Blue Robert Crum William Roberts Jr. About TIP Strategies TIP Strategies, Inc. (TIP) is a privately held Austin-based

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy

Prepared for the City of Richmond

October 2010


CONTENTS Acknowledgements......................................................................................................................................................................................................................2 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3 Executive Summary.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................4 Analysis of the Local Economy....................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Regional Labor Market ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................26 Infrastructure..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................33 Economic Opportunity Sectors ..................................................................................................................................................................................................36 Target Industry Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................................................39 Workforce Retention and Expansion.........................................................................................................................................................................................68 Project Development Opportunities and Prioritization...............................................................................................................................................................74 Economic Opportunity Site Strategy..........................................................................................................................................................................................82 Institutional Framework for Development..................................................................................................................................................................................87 Public Infrastructure Needs .......................................................................................................................................................................................................88 Short- and Long-Term Retention Strategies and Actions..........................................................................................................................................................91 Short-Term Attraction Strategies and Actions ...........................................................................................................................................................................96 Long-Term Programs, Tools, and Actions.................................................................................................................................................................................99 Implementation Matrix .............................................................................................................................................................................................................112 Program Performance Measures ............................................................................................................................................................................................122 Appendix A: Historical & Forecast Economic Indicators .........................................................................................................................................................127


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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS TIP Strategies and the Hill-Christian Consulting Group would like to thank the many individuals who participated in the development of this plan. We are particularly grateful to the business and public sector representatives who generously gave their time and input. Their knowledge and creativity contributed greatly to our understanding Richmond’s development opportunities and our recommendations.

We would also like to thank the CEDS advisory committee as well as the leadership and staff of the City of Richmond for their critical guidance, support, and feedback.

Richmond Mayor and City Council Dwight C. Jones, Mayor Kathy C. Graziano, Council President Ellen F. Robertson, Council Vice President Bruce W. Tyler Charles R. Samuels Chris A. Hilbert E. Martin Jewell Cynthia I. Newbille Reva M. Trammell Douglas G. Conner, Jr.

Richmond CEDS Advisory Committee Gina Burgin Charles Finley Margaret Freund James Harris Brian Jackson Ken Johnson Garth Larcen Jon Lugbill Scott Garnett Candice Streett Milton Vice Tinh Phan John Bennett Robert Blue Robert Crum William Roberts Jr.

About TIP Strategies

TIP Strategies, Inc. (TIP) is a privately held Austin-based business and economic development consulting firm committed to providing quality solutions for both public and private-sector clients. Established in 1995, the firm’s areas of practice include economic development consulting, strategic planning, site selection, economic impact analysis, regional economic development, target industry analysis, cluster analysis, technology audit, transit-oriented development, workforce analysis, feasibility studies, market analysis, and redevelopment analysis and planning.

106 E. 6th Street, Suite 550 Austin, Texas, 78701 512.343.9113 www.tipstrategies.com

About Hill-Christian Consulting Group

The Hill-Christian Consulting Group, LLC specializes in consulting related to the management, leadership, and strategic functions of complex state and local governments as well as private sector businesses. We offer complete solutions for business development, project and change management, strategic planning, regulatory compliance, effective and confidential senior management search processes, team building and the implementation of effective policies and procedures. 2711 Buford Rd., Suite 108 Richmond, VA 23235 804.305.1190 www.hillchristianconsulting.com

Richmond Project Team

Jon Roberts, Managing Director, TIP Strategies Alex Cooke, Project Director, TIP Strategies Alan Cox, Project Consultant, TIP Strategies Sheila Hill-Christian, President & CEO, Hill-Christian Consulting Group


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INTRODUCTION The City of Richmond engaged TIP Strategies (TIP) and Hill-Christian Consulting Group (HCCG) to prepare a comprehensive economic development strategy, or CEDS, for the community. The following recommendations are the result of a 12-month process incorporating input and ideas from key stakeholders throughout the community. The purpose of the plan is to identify, prioritize, and present Richmond’s key development opportunities, especially those projects eligible for Economic Development Administration (EDA) investment assistance.

The information for this planning effort was gathered primarily through stakeholder interviews and a public forum. The consulting team conducted Interviews and discussions with numerous individuals representing business, government, regional planning, education, neighborhood groups, and economic development at the local, regional, and state levels. The consulting team also led a public input forum to gather citizen input on the city’s key development opportunities. TIP and HCCG would like to thank the individuals who gave their valuable time to participate in this process. We would also like to thank Department of Economic and Community Development (DECD) staff for helping to schedule and organize meetings.

The plan itself is organized into four sections: analysis of the local economy, development opportunities analysis, development strategies and actions, and program evaluation measures.

The economic analysis section includes quantitative and qualitative assessments if Richmond’s socio-economic trends, industry composition, regional labor market, infrastructure, and economic opportunity sectors.

The development opportunities analysis looks at target industries, workforce retention and expansion, project development opportunities and prioritization, and economic opportunity site strategies.

The third section contains short- and long-term strategies and actions related to public infrastructure, business retention and attraction, marketing, and redevelopment.

Finally, the plan offers several measures to gauge the success of the plan’s implementation as well as the overall economic growth and vitality of Richmond.

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy – Executive Summary

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City of Richmond engaged TIP Strategies (TIP) and Hill-Christian Consulting Group (HCCG) to prepare a comprehensive economic development strategy, or CEDS, for the community. The following recommendations are the result of a 12-month process incorporating input and ideas from key stakeholders throughout the community. The purpose of the plan is to identify, prioritize, and present Richmond’s key development opportunities, especially those projects eligible for Economic Development Administration (EDA) investment assistance.

The information for this planning effort was gathered primarily through stakeholder interviews and a public forum. The consulting team conducted interviews and discussions with numerous individuals representing business, government, regional planning, education, neighborhood groups, and economic development at the local, regional, and state levels. The consulting team also led a public input forum to gather citizen input on the city’s key development opportunities.

The Challenge Richmond has a legitimate claim to being a world-class city. It will come as no surprise that this is both a blessing and a curse. It represents a unique occasion to claim new and emerging industries. At the same time, it places expectations and demands on the city – and regional – leadership that will be difficult to meet. That difficulty centers around two major issues: the preparedness of the workforce and the capacity to build and sustain innovative industries.

The Workforce The importance of a skilled workforce cannot be overstated. The chart below, showing national unemployment figures by educational attainment, tells a stark story. If you do not have a high school diploma, you are more than three times as likely to be unemployed as someone

with a college degree. And high school graduates are 40 percent more likely to have a job than those who didn’t graduate.

In other words, education matters. It follows that communities that lag in educational attainment will lag even further in future economic growth. This is true because the gap between unemployment and educational attainment is growing larger, and will continue to do so as employers require higher skill levels.

If Richmond does not place the utmost emphasis on education and workforce training, it will simply not be competitive in the international marketplace.

Innovation Capacity The importance of a strong and vibrant industry cluster – one that can capitalize on national growth trends and international investment – is essential to a city and a region. Whether that cluster is semiconductors

NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY EDUCATION, 25+ YRS.(seasonally adjusted)

14.0%

10.3%

4.6%

8.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Jan‐99 Jan‐00 Jan‐01 Jan‐02 Jan‐03 Jan‐04 Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10

Less than a high school diplomaHigh school graduates, no collegeCollege graduatesAll educational levels, 25+ years

Recession

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (employment); National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates)

Recession


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(Austin), software (Seattle), or aviation (Wichita), they all contribute enormously to the overall vibrancy of the region. Richmond has that opportunity with life sciences and biotechnology. It has the institutional framework, the educational infrastructure, and the vision to capitalize on that sector.

While many communities have made investments to develop the life sciences/biotechnology sector, few have realized substantial returns on their investment. In Richmond, however, the elements of a cluster have been steadily coming together. The Virginia Biotechnology Research Park is now acting as a magnet for companies seeking to relocate, as well as a breeding ground for new ideas and innovation.

The challenge, however, is to maintain that momentum. There is no certainty that the advantages of a Richmond biotech cluster will not be usurped by other cities. While the initial emphasis on biotech has waned during the recession, states as diverse as Texas, Wisconsin, and Oregon are seeding major new initiatives. Without a sustained commitment investment of resources, Richmond’s edge will be compromised.

While this plan is directed primarily towards federal initiatives, there is a strategic element that goes further. Specifically, the emphasis is on projects that advance workforce skills and provide greater capacity to building and sustain knowledge-based industries, such as the life sciences and biotechnology sector.

The Response TIP assessed and prioritized the city’s development and redevelopment opportunities with the current strategic economic development priorities at the national level in mind. Consideration of national investment priorities in this process matters. The Economic Development Administration requires a CEDS in order for a community or region to apply for investment assistance under EDA's Public Works or Economic Adjustment Assistance programs. Therefore, local projects that align with

national investment priorities will be more likely to receive federal investment assistance.

EDA has established a number of investment programs designed to assist regions and communities to become more competitive in the global economy. The agency allocates its investment assistance through a competitive grant process. To facilitate the evaluation of competing grants, EDA has established the following investment priorities:

• Collaborative Regional Innovation

• Public/Private Partnerships

• National Strategic Priorities

• Global Competitiveness

• Environmentally-Sustainable Development

• Economically Distressed and Underserved Communities

EDA also favors projects that demonstrate the ability to use funds quickly and effectively and are linked to specific and measureable outcomes. Additionally, EDA favors initiatives that support the national strategic priorities pursued by the federal government, which are intended to promote job creation and business expansion in the following areas:

• Clean energy

• Green technologies

• Sustainable manufacturing

• Information technology infrastructure

• Communities impacted by auto industry restructuring

• Natural disaster mitigation and resiliency

• Access to capital for small/medium & ethnically diverse enterprises


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• Innovations in science, healthcare, & alternative fuel technologies

In addition to federal priorities, TIP included in its analysis two other critical considerations: (1) does a project align with local economic and community development priorities and (2) will the private sector support it. The intersection of the national, local, and market considerations is the focal point for the consulting team’s evaluation of development and redevelopment opportunities in Richmond.

What EDA prefers

What the market supportsWhat the community wants

What EDA prefers


What EDA prefers


TIP evaluated 16 sites/areas that were identified by the City and the consulting team as “high priority” for new development or redevelopment opportunities. Many of the proposed sites/areas have significant development potential and offer real economic opportunity. However, not all are appropriate for EDA or City investment assistance. To prioritize development opportunities most suitable for EDA and City support, TIP utilized a project evaluation matrix for scoring each project according to the following six criteria:

• Focus (is the project well defined?)

• Impact (e.g., well-paying jobs, tax base, private investment)

• Does it meet EDA priorities?

• Does it support local considerations? (e.g., political & community support, links with community development priorities)

• Market viability (Will the private sector support it?)

• Schedule (Can it be achieved expeditiously & realistically?)

According to TIP’s analysis and scores, the two highest priority sites/projects for pursuing EDA investment assistance are the following:

• Bio Tech Park Expansion: The development of the Virginia Biotechnology Research Park has been a major achievement in establishing Richmond as a center of life sciences education, research and development, and commerce in the eastern US. TIP recommends the City of Richmond work with the state and local partners in the park to pursue an EDA investment grant to fund a portion or all of the costs of developing the proposed Virginia Life Sciences Commercialization Center (VLSCC) as part of the Biotech Ten expansion. The development of Biotech Ten has the potential to expand the park’s impact on the city and the region by attracting and retaining high value jobs and investment as well as inspiring new generations to pursue careers in one of the nation’s most important fields.

• Armstrong High School: The redevelopment of Armstrong High School into a modern skills development and education center represents a significant economic and community development opportunity for Richmond. However, for it to have the greatest impact on the citizens and businesses of Richmond, TIP recommends an ambitious redevelopment involving a new facility constructed with green building technologies and utilizing state-of-the-art facilities and equipment. Such an approach has greater


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probability of helping to revitalize the East End and prepare Richmond’s residents for the jobs of tomorrow.

Many of the other sites/areas represent high priority economic development investment needs for Richmond. However, TIP feels that the Bio Tech Park expansion and redevelopment of the Armstrong High School site represent the development opportunities with the highest potential for receiving EDA investment assistance. These projects also address the challenges Richmond faces in expanding its capacity to build and sustain innovative industries and preparing its workforce to fill the jobs of tomorrow.

In addition to the expanding the Biotech Park and redeveloping Armstrong High School, TIP recommends the City of Richmond commit to a long-term (20-year) strategy for redeveloping an area within the city for light industrial, commercial, information technology, and R&D activities. In 2001-2002, the City of Richmond engaged TIP to assist in developing a long-term economic development strategic plan. A central finding of that plan was the lack of suitable sites in Richmond to accommodate major new developments. To address this need, the consulting team recommended a “Richmond Redevelopment Initiative” involving the identification and assembly of up to 200 acres for a new tech/industrial park or corridor. Eight years later, Richmond still lacks the shovel-ready sites and buildings necessary to compete with the surrounding counties for new large- and medium-sized investment prospects.

Therefore, TIP once again recommends the City and its economic development partners pursue a long-term “Richmond Redevelopment Initiative” to position the city for attracting new employment opportunities and private investment. This initiative should become a primary focus for DECD. The primary zoning of the land will be for light industrial, R&D, information technology, and commercial uses. The land should form a contiguous park or corridor suitable for medium and large-size

companies to locate operations. As an element of this corridor, the City should ensure direct links to the Biotech Park and Advantech to meet the facility needs of expanding entrepreneurial companies.

The best opportunities for such a redevelopment initiative lie south of the James River, especially in the Manchester area and along Commerce Road. The area benefits from rail access; proximity to I-95, the Port of Richmond, and the airport; existing infrastructure; and land that could be made available for development.

DECD will be primarily responsible for coordinating the redevelopment initiative. However, due to its current organizational funding capacity, DECD will be hard pressed to oversee a major redevelopment initiative in Richmond. To be successful, the City of Richmond will have to commit additional resources and funding mechanisms to the initiative. This includes the hiring of dedicated full-time staff to manage the project’s feasibility, planning, fundraising, assembly, development, and marketing efforts. To assist DECD with this ambitious initiative, TIP recommends the City form a redevelopment advisory board. While not official, such an entity would provide essential private sector real estate market guidance to the initiative. Over time, as the scale of the initiative expands, the City should consider establishing a formal redevelopment commission to lead and administer the project.

Other priority recommendations and strategies include:

• Establish a Technology Zone that is linked to the Richmond Redevelopment Initiative.

• Continue diversifying Richmond’s economic base by pursuing a target industry strategy emphasizing knowledge-based industries.

• Strengthen the City of Richmond’s participation in Business First Richmond.


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• Pursue new investment opportunities from companies in the Richmond region and in Northern Virginia seeking to consolidate facilities.

• Ensure that the Greater Richmond Partnership is aggressively marketing and promoting existing sites in Richmond as part of its business recruitment efforts.

• Redesign the DECD section of the City’s website.

• Consider the use of other incentive tools such as Tax Increment Finance (TIF) districts, development fee rebates, energy efficiency retrofit grants, and a revolving loan fund (RLF) focused on life sciences enterprises.

• Bring the business, workforce training, and education communities closer together.

• Initiate a regional advertising and marketing program that targets the Greater Richmond Area and Northern Virginia.

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy – Analysis of Local Economy

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ANALYSIS OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY

Purpose and Scope The purpose of this analysis is to arrive at a common understanding of the Richmond area’s existing economic strengths and weaknesses. This analysis is expressed in the context of the metropolitan, regional, and national economies as a means understanding Richmond’s relative position in a national context and highlighting its latent and potential competitive advantages.

TIP has drawn upon our past experience working in the Richmond area, as well as our deeper knowledge working in areas throughout the United States. We have applied this knowledge and experience to both qualitative and quantitative analysis methods for developing a full understanding of the Richmond economy. We based our findings on the following elements:

• A review of relevant studies, plans, and other material provided by the City of Richmond.

• A review of economic and demographic data from various federal, state, and private sources, including the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the U.S. Department of Labor, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Moody’s Analytics.

• A review of published material from other public entities such as the Greater Richmond Partnership, the Greater Richmond Transit Company, and the Virginia Department of Transportation.

• Interviews with a number of key stakeholders.

• Field reconnaissance of the physical and economic geography of Richmond.

The team has met with representatives from the following organizations:

• The City of Richmond

• The Greater Richmond Partnership

• The Richmond Chamber of Commerce

• The Port of Richmond

• Virginia Commonwealth University

• Greater Richmond Transit Company

• Richmond Regional Planning District Commission

• Shockoe Bottom Association

• Virginia Biotechnology Research Park

• Venture Richmond

• City Lights (Jackson Ward)

• Virginia Economic Development Partnership

• Richmond Sports Backers

In addition, TIP conducted site visits of a key development/redevelopment opportunity sites in the city, including:

• Azalea Mall

• The Boulevard

• Richmond Technical Center

• Cloverleaf Mall

• Jefferson Davis Highway

• South and North Reynolds sites

• Nine Mile Road Gateway


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Demographic Indicators The following section describes key demographic indicators for both the city of Richmond and the Richmond-Petersburg Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). It includes historical trends as well as population projections to 2030. The population forecast was developed by Moody’s Analytics, a leading independent provider of economic analysis, data, forecasting, and credit risk services.

Population > Over the last three decades, population growth within the city of Richmond has failed to keep up with growth in the broader Richmond- MSA. According to Census estimates, the MSA gained over 481,000 residents between 1970 and 2008, while Richmond lost almost 48,000 residents over the same period. Most all of Richmond’s population loss occurred between 1970 and 1989. Then, between 1990 and 2008, the city’s total population remained stagnant.

According to projections developed by Moody’s Analytics, the city’s population should begin consistently growing again over the next two decades. Moody’s expects the city’s population to grow by 24 percent, roughly the same rate of growth as projected for the greater MSA.

Population Growth Rates

1970-2008 2009-2030

MSA 64.8% 25.9%

City -19.2% 23.6%

Richmond MSA1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

City of Richmond250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0

1970 2030

history projection

1970 2030

history projection

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

Figure 1: Annual Population Growth, 1970-2030

SOURCE: US Census Bureau (history); Moody's Analytics (projections)


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Figure 2 shows the annual net change in Richmond’s population. With a few exceptions, Richmond suffered net population losses each year between 1970 and 2004. The most severe losses occurred in the 1970s and in 1995, when the population contracted by 4,669 residents. Since then, Richmond experienced only modest annual losses or gains. In 2005, however, the City began an incremental four-year growth period, which Moody’s projects to continue well into the future. The projection shows the city adding between 2,000 and 2,500 residents each year until 2030.

If Moody’s projection is accurate, the population of Richmond will grow by about 48,000 residents and reach approximately 252,000 by 2030. While important, this would only get Richmond back to the population it enjoyed in 1970.

The MSA, in comparison, is projected to add over 320,000 residents over the same period, culminating in a total regional population of over 1.5 million. Moody’s projects net annual population growth in the MSA to stabilize at about 15,000 residents per year through 2030.

City of Richmond

+5,000

+2,500

+0

-2,500

-5,000

-7,500

-10,000

Richmond MSA

+25,000

+20,000

+15,000

+10,000

+5,000

+0

Net

Cha

nge

1970 2030

history projection

1970 2030

history projection

Net

Cha

nge

Figure 2: Annual Net Population Change, 1970-2030


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Components of Population Change > A look at the components of population change provides insight into the growth differentials between the city and the MSA. The U.S. Census Bureau tracks three components of population growth: natural increase, immigration, and domestic migration.

The first two components – natural increase (net difference in births and deaths) and immigration (international migration) – typically change gradually over time. Figure 3 reveals, however, that this has not always been the case in the city of Richmond since the Census Bureau began tracking these records in 1991. For example, international migration to Richmond was generally stable and positive during the 1990s. Then, in 2000 the city experienced a dramatic drop in international migration, resulting in a net loss of over 1,000 international residents. Since then, net immigration to the city has been much lower than in the previous decade. Additionally, Richmond has experienced periodic variations in natural population increase over the last two decades.

The third and most volatile component of growth is domestic migration. This component is made up of U.S. residents moving between Richmond and other parts of the nation. Domestic migration into the city has been mostly negative since the early 1990s. The most dramatic drop occurred in 1995, when the city lost almost 6,000 domestic residents. Of note, net domestic migration to Richmond began trending positive again in recent years, culminating with a net gain of 937 domestic residents in 2008. The city is actually bucking the regional trend in domestic migration.

Figure 3 shows domestic migration accounting for much of the population growth within the broader MSA. New U.S. residents to the metropolitan region peaked between 2004 and 2007, reaching a high of 13,292 in 2006. Also, as in Richmond, international migration to the MSA decreased substantially in the 2000s compared to the 1990s.

CITY OF RICHMOND

+5,000

+2,500

+0

-2,500

-5,000

-7,500

RICHMOND MSA

+25,000

+20,000

+10,000

+5,000

-5,000

+0

1991 2008

Domestic MigrationImmigrationNatural Increase (births minus deaths)

Net

Cha

nge

1991 2008

Domestic MigrationImmigrationNatural Increase (births minus deaths)

Net

Cha

nge

Figure 3: Components of Net Population Change

SOURCE: US Census Bureau (via Moody's Analytics)


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Migration > U.S. Census estimates of domestic migration represent a net change. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data, as shown below, allows one to assess the origin and destination of residents (as represented by the number of exemptions claimed). The IRS tracks the movement of income tax filers from year to year at the county level (and city level in Virginia). The figure below shows the top seven migration flow patterns for the city of Richmond between 1991 and 2008. It reveals the substantial annual outflows of residents from Richmond to nearby counties within the MSA, especially Chesterfield and Henrico Counties. However, net outmigration from Richmond to Hanover and Powhatan Counties has actually subsided in recent years to a near neutral level. Areas from which Richmond has attracted modest net inflows of

residents include Fairfax County, Virginia Beach, and Kings County, New York.

Chesterfield Henrico Hanover Fairfax Powhatan Kings VA BeachCounty County County County County County City

VA VA VA VA VA NY VA+500 +500

Net Inflow +250 +250 Net Inflow+0 +0

Net Outflow -250 -250 Net Outflow-500 -500-750 -750

-1,000 -1,000-1,250 -1,250-1,500 -1,500-1,750 -1,750-2,000 -2,000

1991 2008 1991 2008 1991 2008 1991 2008 1991 2008 1991 2008 1991 2008

Figure 4: Major Migration Flows into & out of the City of Richmond

SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics)


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Figure 5 shows the top seven migration flow patterns for the Richmond MSA between 1991 and 2008. The region attracts most of new domestic residents from Washington, New York, Hampton Roads, Charlottesville, and Philadelphia MSAs. The MSA experienced a surge of new migrants between 2004 and 2006, especially, from the Washington and New York regions. In fact, between 2002 and 2008 the Richmond MSA received an average annual net inflow 1,962 residents from the DC area and 1,470 residents from New York. The only metros on the list to enjoy a modest net gain of Richmond area residents are Raleigh and Charlotte.

Washington New York Hampton Rds Charlottesville Philadelphia Raleigh Charlotte+4,000 +4,000+3,500 +3,500+3,000 +3,000+2,500 +2,500+2,000 +2,000+1,500 +1,500+1,000 +1,000

Net Inflow +500 +500 Net Inflow+0 +0

Net Outflow -500 -500 Net Outflow-1,000 -1,000

1991 2008 1991 2008 1991 2008 1991 2008 1991 2008 1991 2008 1991 2008

Figure 5: MSAs with Major Migration Flows into & out of the Richmond MSA

SOURCE: U.S. Internal Revenue Service (accessed via Moody's Analytics)


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Age Distribution > Figure 6 shows the evolving age distribution of Richmond and the MSA projected over a 50-year time period, from 1980 to 2030. Seniors currently make up less than 15 percent of population for both the city and the MSA. Their share of the overall population, however, is projected to increase over the next two decades. By 2030, Moody’s projects seniors will account for 22 percent of the population in Richmond and 18 percent of the population in the MSA. This trend is not unique to the region, as similar demographic trends are occurring nationwide.

The figure illustrates the overall similarity in age distributions (current and projected) between the city and the MSA. While the MSA enjoys a slightly larger percentage of experienced working age residents, the city of Richmond has a slightly higher percentage of young adults. These distributions are not surprising given that young adults tend to prefer urban lifestyles, while older professionals – especially those with children – tend to prefer suburban settings. The city and the MSA are projected to maintain a stable (about 25 percent) base of youth over the next two decades.

Richmond MSA City of Richmond

100% 100%

90% 90%

80% 80%

70% 70%

60% 60%

50% 50%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

0% 0%

Youth (0-19)

Young Adult (20-34)

Experienced Working Age (35-

64)

Seniors (65+)

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

History Projection

Youth (0-19)

Young Adult (20-

34)

Experienced

Working Age (35-

64)

Seniors (65+)

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

History Projection

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al P

opul

atio

n

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al P

opul

atio

n

Figure 6: Age Distribution of the Population, 1980-2030

SOURCE: US Census Bureau (history); Moody's Analytics (projections)


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Economic Indicators The following section includes key economic indicators, including industry employment and unemployment rate forecasts. (See box below for description of the forecast methodology and data sources.)

Job Growth > Job growth in 2009 proved disastrous nationwide and the Richmond area was no exception. The city experienced a net loss of over 8,000 jobs and the MSA (excluding the city) shed over 22,000 jobs. The Richmond suburbs suffered a disproportionate share of job losses in construction and manufacturing.

A moderate recovery in job growth in 2010 should pull the suburbs back in line with their annual job gains before the downturn. The city of Richmond should bounce back with slightly more robust job growth than it has experienced in recent years. However, it will take years for the both the MSA and the city to recover from the shear scale of job losses suffered in 2009.

+15,000 +15,000+10,000 +10,000+5,000 +5,000

+0 +0-5,000 -5,000

-10,000 -10,000-15,000 -15,000-20,000 -20,000-25,000 -25,000-30,000 -30,000-35,000 -35,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

City of Richmond Richmond MSA (excluding city)Forecast

Forecast

Figure 7: Annual Net Change in Number of Jobs

SOURCE: TIP Strategies, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, EMSI, Moody's Analytics

The U.S. employment growth rates overall and by industry sector are taken from Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc.’s (EMSI) 2009 Q3 national forecast. These U.S. rates are applied to Quarterly Covered Employment and Wages (ES202) historical data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The forecast assumes that all geography levels (city, MSA, and commonwealth) will recover at rates in line with the nation as a whole. This is important because state and local forecasts themselves are rarely accurate in hindsight. Local economies always depend on the health and growth of the larger national economy. Regardless of local dynamics, all local economies ultimately depend on the speed and timing of the U.S. cyclical recovery and on macroeconomic national factors like interest rates, inflation, and the exchange value of the U.S. dollar.

To be a useful tool for the CEDS, economic forecasting must be more about benchmarking and scenario planning. By applying the broader U.S. forecast, we have a general idea of where the nation is headed over the coming years. This then forms a benchmark for the region. If we assume that local industries are poised to grow at about the same rate as U.S. industries overall (which is a logical assumption), then this exercise really helps to shed light on the local industry mix. In other words, if Richmond appears to be lagging, then we know the current industry mix is inadequate to keep up with a changing, modernizing U.S. economy. The real questions can then be posed: Is our local industry mix adequate to match or outpace the changing national economy? Is our workforce adequately prepared for this challenge?”


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Our forecast shows that the job recovery will be slow, especially if Richmond's job growth fails to exceed the national pace over the next few years. It is anticipated healthcare will be the city's biggest job gainer between 2009 and 2015. Additionally, sectors requiring commercial office space such as government, professional services, administrative services, and corporate headquarters should also see relatively strong recoveries. Manufacturing is the only sector anticipated to lose jobs in the near future.

NAICS Sector 2008 jobs + 2009 net chg + 2009-2015 net chg

State government (including public universities) 24,114 +124 +1,429Healthcare & social services 21,726 -504 +3,190Local government (including public schools) 11,141 +55 +660Corporate & regional headquarters 10,853 -502 +1,035Professional & technical services 10,795 -235 +1,273Accommodation & food services 9,138 -515 +945Manufacturing 9,138 -1,346 -161Administrative services 9,056 -1,057 +1,504Retail trade 9,054 -633 +497Miscellaneous industries* 7,721 -1,517 +791Finance & insurance 7,316 -249 +790Construction 6,886 -987 +700Federal government (civilian & military) 5,969 +31 +354Wholesale trade 5,008 -215 +309Transportation & warehousing 3,328 -257 +249Educational services (private) 2,975 +52 +466Information & media 2,895 -231 +170Real estate 1,951 -97 +474City of Richmond Total 159,063 -8,082 +14,676

2008 jobs

2009 net chg

2009-2015 net chg

Figure 8: City of Richmond Job Levels in 2008 with Anticipated 2009 Losses and 2009-2015 Net Changes



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Unemployment > The Great Recession caused a dramatic spike in unemployment in Richmond and around the country in 2009. For the city, unemployment rose to almost 11 percent in June 2009. While national job recovery should begin in 2010, the unemployment rate at the city, regional, and state levels are not expected to fall back to pre-recession levels within the next five years. In fact, rates may even climb again beginning around 2014.

So why does the unemployment rate start to tick up again in the later years of the forecast? This is because the TIP forecast assumes steady population growth in Richmond (and in the rest of Virginia) based on the most recent Moody's Analytics forecast. For TIP's employment forecast, however, we have assumed that job growth by industry sector will parallel U.S. growth rates. The figure shows what will happen if Richmond's industries grow at similar rates to the U.S. average. In order for Richmond's unemployment rate to fall lower than this forecast predicts, one of two things would need to occur: (1) faster job growth than the national pace or (2) slower population and labor force growth than Moody's Analytics anticipates for the region.

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Figure 9: Average Annual Unemployment Rate, 2004-2015

The unemployment rate forecast relies on Moody's population forecast by age cohort and assumes that the BLS national forecast of a relatively flat labor force participation rate. This flat rate is assumed to hold true across the city, MSA, and commonwealth levels. It is also important to note that the unemployment forecast is always based on a household series, which represents where people live, not where they work. In contrast, the employment forecast is based on place-of-employment data, (i.e., where the jobs are located.)


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Industry Composition

Residential construction, manufacturing plants, distribution centers, and shopping malls are land-intensive property uses that grow disproportionately fast in the suburbs. Because of the consumer-oriented nature of this recession, 2009 job losses tied in these sectors werre more severe in the suburbs than in the city of Richmond.

Moreover, our forecast shows that these sectors could take years to recover the job losses incurred.

Like most central cities, Richmond is better positioned to compete with the suburbs for less land-intensive sectors such as healthcare, corporate headquarters, and professional services.

Financial services can also be included in this cluster of industries that historically show solid job growth in central cities. Though the Richmond forecast for financial services is relatively weak, TIP expects some ongoing fallout and consolidation nationwide in banking and insurance, the specifics of which are impossible to predict. Consolidation, mergers, and acquisitions represent a double-edged sword that will benefit some communities while simultaneously hurting others.

Both the city and the MSA experienced strong employment growth in the healthcare sector in 2008, adding almost 10,000 new jobs. Contributing to this surge was the opening of the new $192 million Critical Care Hospital at the VCU Medical Center.

Construction Manufacturing Wholesale & Transp. Retail

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Figure 10: Annual Net Job Change in Selected Sectors

Sporadic, suppressed historical industry sector employment data at the city and MSA levels have been estimated by TIP Strategies in order to fill in missing gaps and to present a comprehensive employment history.


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Economic Linkages Regional Employment Share > Figure 11 highlights the city’s place within the region as an employment center. Overall, the city of Richmond is home to 26 percent jobs in the (MSA). In comparison, 30 percent of the region’s jobs are located in Henrico County, 20 percent are in Chesterfield County, and 8 percent are in Hanover County.

Not surprisingly, Richmond captures the largest share of regional employment in state government, corporate headquarters, and private educational services. Other sectors that account for over one-quarter of the region's employment include federal government, healthcare, professional services, and information & media.

This figure also shows the city has a disproportionately low share of the region's retail and food services employment. While these sectors may not necessarily provide high-paying jobs, they can generate high levels of pedestrian activity, create sales tax revenues, offer employment opportunities to younger and less well educated residents, and enhance a city's overall quality of life.

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TOTAL JOBS (all industries)Information & media

Professional & technical servicesHealthcare & social services

Federal government (civilian & military)Educational services (private)

Corporate & regional headquartersState government

City of Richmond Remainder of MSA


Figure 11: Balance of Jobs in the MSA between City and Suburbs (as of 2008)


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Location quotients (LQs) indicate strengths and weaknesses in the employment base relative to the U.S. overall. Theoretically, higher LQs imply specialization in a local economy and are often viewed by economists as export industries. In other words, the surplus goods and services produced by high LQ sectors are greater than the capacity for consumption at the local economy; therefore, they are assumed to be exported outside the region. All state capitals score high location quotients (LQs) for state government jobs, but Richmond's LQ for corporate headquarters is even higher. The city's success as a corporate command-and-control center is notable.

It is not unusual for the central city of a metropolitan area to have low LQs for land-intensive sectors such as manufacturing and distribution. Richmond's below-average scores for these sectors fall in line with expectations. However, consistent with the previous figure, the city the below-average LQs for both retail trade and food services. Except for cities heavily dependent on tourism, LQs in these consumer-oriented sectors should rarely deviate outside the average range of 0.75 to 1.25. In fact, a normal LQ for retail trade rarely strays much from a dead even score of 1.00. Richmond's below-average LQs for retail trade and food services imply that a large portion of the region's consumer activities have "leaked" to the suburbs. We see substantial capacity here for the city to capture a larger portion of the region's consumer traffic.

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Figure 12: Location Quotients by Industry Sector (as of 2008)


UNDERSTANDING LQs A location quotient (LQ) is calculated as a local industry’s share of total local employment divided by the same industry’s share of employment at the national level:

Local jobs in industry/ Total local jobs

LQ = ————————————— U.S. jobs in industry/

Total U.S. jobs

If the local industry and national industry are perfectly proportional, the LQ will be 1.00. If an industry is heavily concentrated at the local level (e.g., automotive industry in Detroit,), then the location quotient will be higher than 1.00. Conversely, if the industry is sparsely concentrated at the local level (e.g., farming in New York City), the LQ will be lower than 1.00.


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Retail > Retail employment data suggest the possibility of the city of Richmond being under-served. Reviewing Moody's Analytics estimates of retail sales by consumer format in the city provides a better understanding of the city's specific strengths and weaknesses in the retail sector. For central cities, TIP is less concerned about low sales levels for big box stores (electronics, furniture, building materials, etc.), which gravitate to suburban power centers. Instead, we look more toward the retail formats linked to quality of place – restaurants & bars, grocery & food stores, and miscellaneous shops. Richmond's share of regional sales for restaurants & bars and for miscellaneous shops is acceptable, though not exceptional. The share of regional sales for grocery and food stores, however, is lower than expected. Richmond accounts for just 17 percent of the $2.2 billion in regional food and beverage store sales. This share is roughly in line with the city's share of the MSA population, but it is far below the city’s 26 percent share of the region's jobs.

Retail Sales Category Retail Sales in MSA ($bil) City of Richmond % of MSA 10-Year MSA CAGR%Gasoline stations $2.9 18% +11.7%Motor vehicle & parts dealers $2.8 19% +1.5%General merchandise stores $2.5 24% +5.9%Food & beverage stores $2.2 17% +3.7%Food services and drinking places $1.7 26% +6.2%Building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers $1.2 23% +3.8%Health & personal care stores $1.0 12% +5.1%Clothing & clothing accessories stores $0.9 32% +4.6%Nonstore retailers $0.8 12% +3.5%Miscellaneous store retailers $0.4 23% +2.6%Sporting goods; hobby; book; & music stores $0.4 20% +4.3%Furniture & home furnishings stores $0.4 13% +2.8%Electronics & appliance stores $0.4 15% +4.0%Total $17.7 20% +4.8%

Figure 13: Retail Sales Patterns in the City and MSA, 1998-2008

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, EMSI, Moody's Analytics

Note that the retail sales charts below cover the 10-year period from 1998-2008. The beginning of this period was marked by unusually low oil prices and correspondingly strong SUV sales, but endeding with a spike in oil prices and a collapse of motor vehicle purchases. Because of the period analyzed, we caution readers that the levels and trends shown here for gasoline stations and motor vehicle sales may be slightly distorted.


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Commuting Patterns >To shed further light on Richmond’s economic ties to the surrounding region, TIP examined commuter linkages with Richmond's primary surrounding counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, and Hanover. Analysis of city-suburban commuting patterns typically reveals the same trend everywhere: more commuting across the board, with especially high inbound increases from outlying exurban areas.

An examination of the data for Richmond shows both outbound and inbound commuting rising overall, but outbound flows rising much faster than inbound. Moreover, inbound commuting from Chesterfield and Hanover Counties has leveled off in recent years, while inbound flows from Henrico have fallen steadily.

Additionally, in 1970 there were 1.6 jobs in the City of Richmond for every employed resident in the city. In the latest year available (2006), that ratio is exactly the same at 1.6; however, one key thing has changed. Richmond residents are not the ones staffing the city's jobs today as they were in 1970. Back in 1970, 52 percent of Richmond residents who held a job never left the city to get to work. Today, that ratio has been cut in half to 26 percent. In other words, nearly three-quarters of the city's employed residents leave the city to get to their jobs.

Figure 14: Commuting Patterns & Transportation Linkages in Richmond

INBOUND1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 Long term Since 2000

Total jobs in Richmond 148,426 196,291 174,454 157,003 159,426 ▼ ◄►Live & work in City of Richmond (i.e., no commute) 77,486 78,783 63,576 51,534 41,025 ▼ ▼Total inbound commuters 70,940 117,508 110,878 105,469 118,401 ▲ ▲

from Henrico 42,299 54,254 45,136 39,759 33,904 ▼ ▼from Chesterfield 14,245 33,753 37,824 34,899 35,346 ▲ ◄►from Hanover 7,015 10,474 8,977 9,432 9,973 ◄► ◄►from everywhere else 7,381 19,027 18,941 21,379 39,178 ▲ ▲

OUTBOUND1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 L/T Since 2000

Total employed residents of Richmond 93,261 98,017 93,922 88,898 100,148 ▲ ▲Live & work in City of Richmond 77,486 78,783 63,576 51,534 41,025 ▼ ▼Total outbound commuters 15,775 19,234 30,346 37,364 59,123 ▲ ▲

to Henrico 8,610 10,934 17,034 20,956 24,303 ▲ ▲to Chesterfield 5,663 4,690 8,696 9,449 11,685 ▲ ▲to Hanover 465 1,605 1,765 2,768 3,675 ▲ ▲to all other locations 1,037 2,005 2,851 4,191 19,460 ▲ ▲

NET COMMUTER FLOWS1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 L/T Since 2000

Total net commuter flows into Richmond +55,165 +98,274 +80,532 +68,105 +59,278 ▼ ▼net balance with Henrico +33,689 +43,320 +28,102 +18,803 +9,601 ▼ ▼net balance with Chesterfield +8,582 +29,063 +29,128 +25,450 +23,661 ◄► ▼net balance with Hanover +6,550 +8,869 +7,212 +6,664 +6,298 ◄► ◄►net balance with everywhere else +6,344 +17,022 +16,090 +17,188 +19,718 ▲ ▲

GENERAL TREND

GENERAL TREND

GENERAL TREND

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau (Journey-to-Work and Local Employment Dynamics Origin-Destination Database), Moody's Analytics


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International Linkages > TIP also reviewed the subsidiary structures of all the region's publicly traded companies. Based on recent public filings, we identified at least 11 companies with international operations.

We found that the international linkages of Richmond's companies offer both depth and geographic scope. Our review is summarized as follows:

• Europe – seven companies with a total of 41 subsidiaries across 16 different countries with the most subsidiaries (five) in the United Kingdom.

• Americas – 10 companies with a total of 37 subsidiaries across 19 different countries and territories with the most subsidiaries (five each) in Brazil and Canada.

• Asia Pacific – six companies with a total of 26 subsidiaries across 12 different countries with the most subsidiaries (four) in China.

• Africa – five companies with a total of 14 subsidiaries across 11 different countries with the most subsidiaries (three) in South Africa.

• Mideast – two companies with a total of six subsidiaries across five different countries with the most subsidiaries (two) in Turkey (which we have grouped with the Middle East even though some may consider Turkey a better fit with Europe).

The full table can be located in the appendix.

Figure 15: International Operations of Public Companies Headquartered in the Richmond MSA

Europe Americas Asia Pacific

Africa Middle East

Brink's 14 16 11 4 5 Canal (Chesapeake) 8 1 2 2 0

Carmax 0 1 0 0 0 Genworth 4 4 4 1 1 Financial" 4 3 4 1 0 Newmarket 3 1 3 0 0 Tredegar 7 7 2 6 0

City of Richmond

Universal 0 1 0 0 0 Markel 0 1 0 0 0 Meadwestvaco* 0 2 0 0 0 Owens & Minor 1 0 0 0 0 Suburbs Southpeak Interactive 41 37 26 14 6

SOURCE: Thomson Reuters; TIP Strategies, Inc. *NOTE: Meadwestvaco will relocate in late 2009 from temporary offices in Glen Allen to a permanent headquarters building under construction in downtown Richmond


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Market Capitalization > TIP Strategies was tasked with looking at broad geographic and industry linkages between the City of Richmond, its neighboring counties, and the world at large.

Looking at employment and demographic data is always helpful, but to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of regional industries it is sometimes best to look anecdotally at the dynamics of the region's individual companies. We used a ThomsonReuters database to assemble a dataset of every company in the Richmond metropolitan area that was publicly traded during the 10 years from 1998 to 2008. As of year-end 2008, the region had 30 companies with tradable stocks. A total of 54 companies in the region have been traded at some point in the past 10 years.

As of year-end 2008, companies that maintained a Richmond head office address made up 90 percent of the aggregate market value of the metropolitan region's 30 listed companies. The city's share of the region's market capitalization has ranged from 83 percent to 94 percent over the past 10 years. This is an extraordinarily high share of the overall market cap and it provides anecdotal evidence to support the city's high employment location quotient for corporate headquarters (see Figure 12). It should be noted that the vast majority of the region’s market capitalization is concentrated in two companies – Altria Group and Dominion Resources. In 2008, their combined market cap totaled $51.94 billion, representing over three-quarters of the MSA’s total market capitalization. Figure 16 below displays summary market capitalization data for the city and the MSA. The full table can be located in the appendix.

Figure 16: Market Capitalization of Public Companies Headquartered in Richmond and Surrounding Areas City 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Richmond $28.07 $29.49 $29.18 $30.79 $27.38 $36.30 $56.19 $63.35 $70.45 $57.72 $60.19 Suburbs $4.21 $1.97 $3.22 $4.00 $4.83 $5.91 $8.62 $7.74 $14.76 $14.87 $7.05 MSA $32.28 $31.46 $32.40 $34.79 $32.21 $42.22 $64.80 $71.09 $85.20 $72.59 $67.23 Richmond share of MSA 87% 94% 90% 88% 85% 86% 87% 89% 83% 80% 90% SOURCE: Thomson Reuters; TIP Strategies, Inc.


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Figure 17: Annual Growth Rate of the Working Age Population (age 20-64), 1970-2030

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau (history) Moody's Analytics (projections)

REGIONAL LABOR MARKET

Age Structure In recent decades, the growth rate of the working-age population in Richmond has lagged the MSA, the commonwealth, and the nation.

The aging and eventual retirement of Baby Boomers (i.e., those born between 1946 and 1964) over the next couple of decades will cause the working-age population of the U.S. to grow at a slower rate. This trend will play itself out across the country, including in Virginia and in the Richmond area.

More positively, the city of Richmond's demographic situation is expected to align much more closely with rest of the MSA. Moody's Analytics forecasts the city's working-age population to grow at a similar rate to the larger MSA in the years ahead. While the MSA overall may grow at a slower pace than it has in recent years, Richmond can expect to grow at a faster, steadier pace than it has experienced in some time.


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bachelor's degree or higherhigh school diploma or GED, but less than a 4-year degreeno high school diploma or GED

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Figure 18: Highest Educational Attainment for the Population Age 25 or Older

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey; Moody's Analytics

Educational Attainment Nearly one-third of all City of Richmond residents age 25 or older have a bachelor's degree or higher. This is notably higher than the U.S. average and is consistent with the MSA and commonwealth averages. Retaining graduates of VCU, the University of Richmond, and Virginia Union University and attracting new educated residents is critical to Richmond’s long term economic vitality.

The city of Richmond also has a disproportionately large share of residents who lack high school equivalency – 20 percent of Richmond residents versus 15 percent nationwide. Improving this troubling indicator is equally as important to the city’s economic future as sustaining its higher education base.


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Income Median household incomes in Virginia and in the Richmond MSA have historically run higher than the national level. Although the Richmond MSA has lost ground in the past few years, the region overall still enjoys a household income level that is at least 5 percent over the U.S. median.

Residents in the city of Richmond have historically earned less than their suburban neighbors. In the early 1980s, the city's households earned almost 90 percent of the U.S. median; however, over the past 25 years, this share has fallen to less than 70 percent of the national median.

Some of this widening disparity can be explained by demographics. A single-person household in the central city earning $75,000 a year would still have a lower household income, for example, than a two-paycheck family in the suburbs with each worker earning $50,000.

This can explain part of the income gap, but it doesn't explain everything. As we know from the previous set of charts on educational attainment (see Figure 18), the city has a relatively large share of residents who lack high school equivalency. And as our historical and forecast data show (see Appendix A), the city's unemployment rate tends to run a couple of points higher than the MSA overall.

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Figure 19: Median Household Income Relative to the US (US = 100%)

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS); Moody's Analytics


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Occupational Analysis TIP prepared an employment forecast by occupation for the 2009-2015 timeframe for Richmond and the MSA. The full tables for each region are located in Appendix A5 and A6. Figure 20 below shows the anticipated number of jobs (gained or lost) for each industry sector by training/education level for Richmond. The assumptions for the occupational forecast are the same as for the industry sector forecast (see Figure 8). TIP uses the 2009 occupational-industry matrix to translate industry sector employment first to occupational estimates and then to training/skill level estimates.

The forecast anticipates 14,677 net new jobs created in Richmond over the six-year period; over half of which (8,346) will require no formal training. Most of the jobs requiring low levels of training will be created in healthcare & social services, administrative services, and accommodation & food services. While these new jobs present needed

employment opportunities for many residents of Richmond, their low education/training requirements should cause concern with respect to lower income and wage levels.

Readers should note that the forecast for occupational change is biased toward lower-skilled jobs because it assumes that future job growth patterns in each industry sector will parallel present occupational structures. Logically, we know this is not true. The job market is constantly changing and productivity gains push employment toward higher skilled positions as industries mature. Readers should keep this bias in mind as they interpret the forecast.

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BY TRAINING/EDUCATIONAL LEVELLeast training Short-term on-the-job training +74 -37 +103 +350 +119 +30 +179 +183 +149 +161 +814 +113 +850 +745 +469 +284 +4,586 Least training

Moderate-term on-the-job training +264 -65 +125 +49 +79 +38 +186 +133 +233 +232 +359 +37 +456 +26 +521 +195 +2,868Long-term on-the-job training +232 -19 +6 +12 +8 +21 +33 +6 +19 +16 +31 +8 +15 +73 +348 +82 +893Work experience in a related field +68 -12 +24 +48 +17 +9 +53 +38 +42 +91 +71 +13 +75 +84 +216 +59 +896Postsecondary vocational award +11 -2 +10 +14 +9 +4 +2 +44 +67 +13 +53 +7 +595 +4 +122 +65 +1,018Associate's degree +1 -4 +5 +1 +1 +7 +11 +3 +116 +40 +37 +9 +615 +0 +119 +12 +974Bachelor's degree +31 -14 +19 +4 +9 +41 +250 +49 +425 +289 +87 +189 +194 +3 +384 +55 +2,016Degree plus work experience +16 -6 +17 +10 +4 +18 +69 +17 +121 +171 +45 +27 +92 +8 +130 +31 +769Master's degree +1 -0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +3 +1 +18 +10 +3 +35 +143 +1 +81 +6 +303Doctoral degree +1 -0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +13 +3 +1 +28 +13 +1 +10 +1 +73

Most training First professional degree +1 -0 +0 +6 +1 +1 +3 +1 +70 +10 +3 +1 +142 +1 +43 +1 +282 Most training

No formal training +570 -121 +234 +411 +207 +89 +398 +322 +401 +409 +1,204 +158 +1,321 +845 +1,338 +561 +8,346Vocational preparation or prior experience +80 -18 +38 +63 +27 +19 +67 +85 +225 +144 +161 +29 +1,285 +88 +457 +136 +2,887 SUMMARY4-year degree or higher +50 -21 +37 +23 +15 +62 +325 +68 +647 +482 +139 +280 +584 +12 +648 +94 +3,444TOTAL NET JOB CHANGE 2009-2015 +700 -161 +309 +497 +249 +170 +790 +474 +1,273 +1,035 +1,504 +466 +3,190 +945 +2,443 +791 +14,677

CITY OF RICHMOND

SUMMARY

Figure 20: Forecast Net Change in Employment by Training Level, 2009-2015

SOURCE: TIP Strategies; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau; EMSI; Moody's Analytics


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Figure 21 uses national data to illustrate the important link between education & training and earnings for Richmond. Earnings rise as the level of training or education increases. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics defines, categorizes, and collects data for more than 750 standardized occupations.

By plotting median earnings for the U.S. for each of these occupations against the minimal educational requirement for each, it is possible to show graphically just how strong this correlation is between education and earnings.

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 $65 $70

First professional degree

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Work experience in a related field

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All 753 occupations tracked by the BLS have been cross-referenced by median hourly U.S. earnings and minimal training/skill level

Figure 21: The Link between Skills, Earnings, & Educational Preparation (A)

TRENDLINE


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Figure 22: The Link between Skills, Earnings, & Educational Preparation (B)

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 $65 $70

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Career Path 1No college

Career Path 2Some college up to 4-year degree

Career Path 3College beyond a 4-year degree

Median hourly earnings by minimal training/skill level in the U.S.

Figure 22 streamlines the statistical "noise" of 753 occupations shown in the previous chart. Instead of showing the median pay for each individual occupation, this chart instead shows the median pay of all occupations at each training and educational level.


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Charting location quotients by occupational group reinforces trends that have previously been documented. The city of Richmond has high LQs for government oriented occupations (protective & social services) as well as high-skill and office-using occupations (legal, finance, sciences, & computers).

The three occupational groups with below average LQs for the city are production, food preparation & serving, and sales. Note that the LQ for sales occupations falls below the 0.75 outer limit of average scores. These scores mirror the industry LQs displayed in Figure 12 and reinforce the city’s relative weakness in retail, food services, and manufacturing.

All occupational LQs for the MSA fall within the average range of scores.

2.00 2.00

above1.75 1.75

above average

1.50 1.50average

1.25 1.25

avg 1.00 1.00 avg

0.75 0.75

below0.50 0.50

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0.25 0.25average

0.00 0.00

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Figure 23: Location Quotients by Occupational Group (as of 2008)



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INFRASTRUCTURE TIP was asked to provide a basic evaluation of Richmond’s physical capacity in relation to its current and future economic development needs. The section below reviews the physical economic development infrastructure assets of the city, including energy, water, transportation, public transit, and telecommunications.

Port The Port of Richmond, an inland deepwater terminal, provides the city with container and general cargo facility for intra-coastal and trans-Atlantic shipping. The port is located three miles south of downtown Richmond along the James River. It is situated on 121 acres adjacent to I-95 and is connected to the CSX main north-south line by an industrial spur line known as the “Deepwater Terminal Railroad.” The port is owned by the City of Richmond, managed by the Port of Richmond Commission, and operated by Federal Marine Terminals Inc., a private company.

Despite its strategic significance to the regional economy, the Port of Richmond faces significant challenges. In 2009, Independent Container Line, the port’s anchor tenant, began rerouting its marine cargo service from Richmond to Wilmington, NC. Before its departure, ICL had shipped its products through the Port of Richmond for 24 years and accounted for 75 percent of the port’s business. ICL shipped between 5,700 and 6,000 tons of cargo weekly through the port, including steel, rubber, specialty chemicals, household products, and some wines and spirits.

ICL cited the need to “increase the size of its footprint” as the primary reason for the move to Wilmington. Presently, the James River’s narrow 25-foot channel, with a maximum 22-foot ship’s draft, limits the port’s capacity handle larger ocean-going vessels. In addition, the 121-acre site is landlocked by the river to the east and I-95 to the west. Expanding the site will require the acquisition of surrounding properties.

Increasing the economic competitiveness of the Port of Richmond will require significant capital investment by the city, state, and federal government. For the port to handle larger vessels, the river must be deepened beyond its present 25 feet. There have been discussions with the Army Corp of Engineers and the U.S. Congress has approved the project, but as of yet no funding has been allocated. The port would also benefit from a rail loop that would extend the current spur to the water. To get oversized cargo into and out of the port by land, adjacent road improvements will need to be made. The acquisition of surrounding land would also create the potential for industrial development and the development of an intermodal facility.

It is estimated that the Port of Richmond needs approximately $20 million in new capital investment to become economically competitive. Given the overall decline of the manufacturing sector and the presence of other port alternatives in the region, it is uncertain if such investments would dramatically enhance the economic competitiveness of Richmond.

Transportation Highways > Richmond is intersected by three interstate highways (95, 85, and 64), providing the city access to major markets in the northeast, southeast, and midwest. Richmond maintains about 827 centerline miles of roadway (i.e., 1,850 lane miles). Compared to many U.S. metropolitan areas, Richmond enjoys a favorable 24 minute average commute time.

There are several recent, current, and planned major Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) road construction projects affecting Richmond. Recently completed projects include the Benjamin Harrison Bridge rehabilitation and replacement of the Route 5 Bridge. Ongoing projects include pavement resurfacing and repairs to I-295, improvements between I-95 interchange and Parham Road, and a new link between Route 895 and the Richmond International Airport.


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New road projects beginning in 2010 include the widening of Jefferson Davis Highway from Chesterman Avenue to Decatur Street. The project will widen the existing highway to provide standard 12-foot wide lanes and dedicate turning lanes. In addition, the reconstruction of the Huguenot Bridge will involve the complete replacement of the existing structure with a new bridge in approximately the same location. In 2010, VDOT will begin rehabilitating 11 bridges along the I-95 corridor in Richmond and Henrico County.

At the proposal stage, VDOT is planning to widen I-64 in the east end of Richmond to reduce congestion and provide better traffic flow. The total cost for this project would be at least $325 million, with the majority federally funded.

Rail > The Richmond area has a considerable amount of rail infrastructure, including a city-owned rail spur. CSX and Norfolk Southern provide rail access to Richmond. Together, they account for the majority of freight movement in the region. CSX facilities include the Acca Yard, the Fulton Yard, and the Collier Yard. CSX also owns rail spurs at the Richmond International Airport and the Port of Richmond. Norfolk Southern maintains the Washington Street Yard and the Wagner Yard.

However, the rail infrastructure does not connect well with the Port of Richmond, leaving the city with no intermodal cargo facility that incorporates rail, truck, and port traffic. As mentioned previously, the construction of a loop track running the rail to the water has been identified as a major need at the Port of Richmond.

The City of Richmond also is the southern terminus of the North East Corridor Amtrak line. In December 2003, the renovated Main Street Station began providing passenger rail service to New York, Boston, and other locales. The new Main Street Station provides downtown Richmond with a multimodal transportation node that incorporates

commuter rail, auto, and bus services. In addition, planning is underway to construct high-speed rail service between Richmond and Washington, DC.

Air Service > The city of Richmond and the surrounding region are well served by modern passenger and air cargo facilities. Richmond International Airport (RIC) is the region’s only provider of scheduled commercial airline service and major air cargo operations. Located seven miles from the Richmond central business district, RIC offers travelers convenient access to all areas of the city. RIC is presently served by nine air carriers offering approximately 200 daily nonstop flights 22 major domestic and international destinations. Annually, RIC serves more than 3.5 million travelers and handles approximately 115 million pounds of cargo. The airport’s cargo operations utilize more than 100,000 square feet of warehouse/office space and 1,000,000 square feet of ramp space.

In recent years, RIC has undergone significant capital improvements. A new terminal featuring separate arrival and departure levels and a design capacity of over six million enplaned passengers per year was dedicated in 2007. Additional capital improvement projects completed include the construction of a new two-level terminal curbside roadway, the addition of 10 new gates, the renovation of existing terminal facilities, a new FAA control tower, a new central utility plant, expanded security facilities, and new garage parking facilities. Airport Road has also been expanded to a four-lane divided roadway on airport property.

Public Transit > Greater Richmond Public Transit (GRTC) provides bus transportation, including express and regular routes, as well as van service for special populations. GRTC is a non-profit transit organization jointly owned by the City of Richmond and Chesterfield County. GRTC operates 172 transit vehicles (buses and vans) and supplies fixed route service to Richmond, Petersburg, and Henrico County. Additionally, GRTC operates five over-the-road coach buses for express commuter


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routes, including the Richmond-Fredericksburg Express. GRTC also partners with VCU to provide mobility services to students, staff, and faculty around the Richmond region.

The main economic development implications of public transit in Richmond involve getting residents to their place of work. According to GRTC, of the roughly 26,000 employers in the Richmond region, only 12,000 are accessible to public transportation. Many Richmond residents who lack automobiles find have difficulty in reaching hourly retail and service jobs in areas of the region not served by GRTC (e.g., Richmond International Airport).

Telecommunications Richmond enjoys a robust telecommunications infrastructure. The city and surrounding area host an extensive fiber optic network with digital switching capability and a Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) self healing fiber optic rings. These fiber optic and digital switching assets insure uninterrupted service for regional customers. Special Access Services (DS1, DS3, OC-12, and OC-48) as well as ISDN are available in Richmond.

Utilities Electricity > Dominion Virginia Power, the state’s largest electric utility, is the primary electrical power provider to the Richmond metro region. Other electrical providers in the area include Southside Electric Cooperative and Rappahannock Electric. In 2008, Dominion Virginia Power had a reliability rate of 99.98 percent (excluding storms). As of Dec. 1, 2008, Dominion’s average industrial rate was 6.68 cents/kWh and average commercial rate was 8.17 cents/KwH. However, in 2008 Dominion filed a requested rate increase with the State Corporation Commission, the company’s first in 18 years. Dominion is seeking a rate increase totaling $250 million. The stated reason for the rate increase is to fund the construction of new power plants, substations, and power

lines to meet increasing demand for electricity. In fact, Dominion Virginia Power has committed to spending $4 billion over three years to generate additional power and improve service reliability.

Natural Gas > The Richmond Department of Public Utilities (DPU) provides natural gas to customers within Richmond, Henrico County, and northern Chesterfield County. DPU is the eighth largest (out of 94) municipally-owned natural gas utility in the United States. DPU maintains 1,700 miles of gas mains and six gate stations. It purchases gas from five major suppliers transported by three pipeline systems. After peaking in 2008 due to the worldwide spike in energy prices, the public utilities department lowered its rate by 17 percent in February 2009.

Water and Sewer > The Richmond Department of Public Utilities provides is the city’s water and sewer services to Richmond, Henrico, Chesterfield, and Hanover counties. Richmond’s water treatment plant can treat up to 132 million gallons per day from the James River, making the City one of the largest water producers in the state. DPU recently expanded the plant’s capacity through a $70 million plant improvement project. Excess water and wastewater capacity is available for new and expanding companies.

Figure 24: Richmond Commercial and Industrial Water and Wastewater Rates Monthly Service Charge Water Wastewater Volume Charge (Commercial) 1-100 Ccf $2.164 $3.315 101-2,000 Ccf $1.702 $3.315 Over 2,000 Ccf $1.604 $3.315 Volume Charge (Industrial) 1-100 Ccf $2.573 $3.393 101-2,000 Ccf $2.024 $3.393 Over 2,000 Ccf $1.906 $3.393 SOURCE: Richmond Department of Public Utilities


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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY SECTORS The section below addresses areas of Richmond that offer potential for further economic development. Particular emphasis will be given to opportunities and obstacles for development/redevelopment of industrial and commercial sites in the Jefferson Davis Highway Corridor. Additionally, the analysis will highlight redevelopment opportunities and revitalization initiatives in the Nine Mile Road Corridor.

Jefferson Davis Highway Corridor Located in the Southside of Richmond, the Jefferson Davis Highway Corridor is an aging industrial highway that is currently in a state of economic and social decline. Before the construction of Interstate 95, Jefferson Davis Highway was the principal connecter between Richmond and Petersburg. The corridor is geographically characterized as the area between Hull Street to the north, the city limits boundary to the south, Commerce Road and the rail line to the east, and the railroad right-of-way to the west.

Today, the corridor is populated with a mix of residential, commercial, and industrial properties, most suffering from some level of deterioration and/or vacancy. As illustrated in Figure 25, the area is populated with numerous vacant properties. Indeed, City of Richmond has identified 925 vacant properties within the corridor. Over 700 of the properties are vacant lots that have either never been developed or the original structure no longer exists. Additionally, 24 of the properties host vacant structures or buildings.

Figure 26 on the following page maps the vacant properties by land use. According to the City, 157 parcels are commercial and 181 are industrial in nature. Over 700 of the properties are less than one-quarter acre in size. There are 13 larger industrial that 5 acres or greater.

Many of these parcels are considered Brownfield redevelopment sites. Two of the larger industrial sites are the 18-acre Madison Arms property

Figure 25: Vacant Parcels in the Jefferson Davis Highway Corridor – by Type

This map produced as part of the Richmond Green Infrastructure Assessment by E² Inc. Project partners include the City of Richmond, Richmond Regional Planning District Commission, Virginia Department of Forestry, E² Inc. and the Green Infrastructure Center. The project sponsor is Altria.


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and the 15-acre Model Tobacco property. Due to their size, location, and current industrial zoning designation, both sites represent significant redevelopment opportunities. For industrial purposes, they benefit from proximity to rail lines Interstate 95, the Port of Richmond, and the Richmond International Airport; existing industrial zoning.

However, the substantial environmental remediation costs as well as the overall economic and physical deterioration of the surrounding area pose considerable barriers to private redevelopment of these and other sites in the corridor. Moreover, the availability of large greenfield sites well suited for industrial and commercial development in neighboring counties make the corridor less competitive.

Overcoming these obstacles will require public participation in any redevelopment efforts. The City has taken a first step by applying to the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for a Brownfields Area-Wide Planning Pilot Program. The purpose of the program is to develop a comprehensive revitalization strategy for the Jefferson Davis Highway Corridor. Such a strategy will involve analysis and recommendations regarding zoning, transportation, streetscapes, recreation space, housing, infrastructure, and public services.

Unfortunately, the City’s grant application was unsuccessful. Nevertheless, TIP recommends the City conduct a feasibility analysis for assembly of industrial and commercial properties in the corridor. The challenges to industrial and commercial revitalization of the area through piecemeal redevelopment projects are daunting. A strategy of assembling individual properties by a public or non-profit entity for the purpose of creating a single industrial, commercial, or mixed-use anchor development provides perhaps the most realistic opportunity for extensive economic revitalization of the corridor.

This map produced as part of the Richmond Green Infrastructure Assessment by E² Inc. Project partners include the City of Richmond, Richmond Regional Planning District Commission, Virginia Department of Forestry, E² Inc. and the Green Infrastructure Center. The project sponsor is Altria.

Figure 26: Vacant Parcels in the Jefferson Davis Highway Corridor – by Land Use


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Nine Mile Road Corridor One of the most important gateways into Richmond from Henrico County is the Nine Mile Road Corridor in the East End of Richmond. The primary road artery of the area is the historic Nine Mile Road. During the Civil War, Nine Mile Road served as a major artery during the Peninsula Campaign. The East End also hosted General Robert E. Lee’s headquarters during the Seven Days Battle of 1862. Today, the area is characterized by low income neighborhoods and public housing developments such as Creighton Court. Most of the corridor is zone for single-family and multi-family residential use, limiting the potential for large scale commercial development.

Within the East End, however, are two significant economic development assets. The first, Bon Secours Richmond Community Hospital, is located in Church Hill. Opened in 1907, Richmond Community Hospital has long served as a critical community asset for Richmond’s East End, providing healthcare and employment opportunities for generations of area residents.

The second asset is the Old Armstrong High School, a 150,000 square foot facility situated on approximately 20 acres. Presently vacant surplus property, the City is assessing possible reuses for the school with the objective of serving as a transformational catalyst for the surrounding area. A potential economic development use for the site is as a technical education/workforce training center. Other preliminary concepts include a data center, defense contractor complex, or mixed-use storage facility.

To guide the redevelopment of the East End and the Nine Mile Road Corridor, the City of Richmond partnered with Bon Secours Virginia and the Richmond Redevelopment and Housing Authority to engage the area in a public Charrette. The basis for the Charrette was a series of public engagement meetings conducted from June 2-7 at various locations in the East End. The meetings were designed to identify specific landscaping and streetscape designs, housing initiatives, and business

opportunities, as well as policy and management recommendations for the area’s revitalization.

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy – Development Opportunities Analysis

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TARGET INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Strategic Analysis The selection of target sectors is traditionally bound to an assessment of only a few determinant factors, such as access to an available workforce, sites, and incentives. Our target sector recommendations are not based solely on these factors, but also on conversations with business leaders to better understand potential opportunities and challenges that might not be identified from secondary data sources alone. TIP also applies its understanding and appreciation of broader socioeconomic trends such as consumption patterns, emerging markets and international trade, as well as demographic shifts to better understand long-term recruitment and development prospects within emerging economic sectors. Finally, TIP takes into consideration how the following targets fit within the overall framework of the CEDS and how they will affect Richmond’s economic development.

The adjacent figure presents an analysis of Richmond’s economic development strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats within the context of local, state/regional, national, and global influences. The relative size of the bubbles reflects its perceived level of importance.

WEAKNESSES STRENGTHS

THREATS OPPORTUNITIES

Limited greenfield sites

Proximity to DC

VCU technology transfer & commercialization

I-95 location between DC & Research

Triangle, NC

state/region

national

global

local

…Sharp differences in educational attainment, skills, & job

opportunities

Cost of brownfield

remediation

Sluggish US economy, very

slow job growth

Port will require substantial investment.

Skilled educated labor force in MSA, but....

Excellent target industry framework from Greater Richmond Partnership to build upon

Local universities are prized

stationary assets & economic engines

Higher education and life sciences institutions attracting bright entrepreneurial talent from abroad


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Initial list of potential target industries for investigationTo narrow the initial list of potential target industries, TIP began with the 10 sectors the Greater Richmond Partnership is pursuing for the broader region. The goal is identify which of the 10 are most appropriate for recruiting and locating in the city of Richmond. In addition, TIP proposes two other industries - retail and professional services - be considered in the analysis.

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Industries from the Greater Richmond Partnership's target list:

9 Logistics10 R&D Centers

TIP Strategies also suggests considering the following:

1 Advanced manufacturing2 Clean tech3 Corporate headquarters4 Creative & knowledge-based services5 Finance & insurance6 Food processing7 Information & communication technologies8 Life sciences

11 Retail, especially healthy food options in under-served neighborhoods

12 Professional services, especially small & medium-sized enterprises


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Review of target industry options - Advanced Manufacturing

Note: Total forecast job losses in the US manufacturing sector as it transitions to high-productivity, "advanced" processes

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Industry

Limited

DuPont (advanced fibers)

Honeywell (advanced fibers)

Alloy Polymers (plastics)

Flexicell (robotic packaging equipment)

Spec Ops Inc. (mobile emergency command centers)(Source: GRP)

The city's limited supply of greenfield sites may pose difficulties for many manufacturers which need plenty of space for new development and future expansion. Existing brownfield sites can be expensive to redevelop, especially if environmental remediation is required. The city may find it difficult to compete with Richmond's suburban areas for these types of firms. That said, there may be limited opportunities for appropriate firms whose spatial requirements are relatively small.

NAICS code

US job growth 2010-2020

Companies in the Richmond MSA

For manufacturing to prosper in the US, productivity must increase, meaning all manufacturing processes must become advanced, regardless of the product. "Advanced" manufacturing, therefore, is about process, not product. It does not fit neatly in a product-based NAICS coding system.

Advanced manufacturing technologies, including computer-aided engineering, computer-integrated manufacturing, robotics and automated materials handling, are applied across the manufacturing sector to improve efficiency and productivity. Specific target industries within the Advanced Manufacturing cluster include chemicals, packaging equipment and materials, defense and aerospace. (Source: GRP)

31-33

-779,054


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Review of target industry options - Clean Techst

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Industry Clean technologies span several industries. While there is not yet a single accepted definition for this rapidly growing field, a recent study by the Pew Charitable Trusts identifies the clean energy economy as cutting across the following five categories: clean energy, energy efficiency, environmentally friendly production, conservation and pollution mitigation, and training and support. (Source: GRP)

Osage Bio Energy (barley-based ethanol)

Ingenco, Inc. (methane gas from landfills)

Intrinergy (energy from waste products)

Alstom Power (turbines & generators)

Alfa Laval (heat exchangers)(Source: GRP)



Limited


+50,161

NAICS code 221 & 562

Again, the city's limited supply of greenfield sites may pose difficulties for some types of clean tech firms who need plenty of space for new development and future expansion. The city may find it difficult to compete with Richmond's suburban areas for these types of firms. That said, there may be limited opportunities for appropriate firms whose spatial requirements are relatively small.


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Review of target industry options - Corporate HQsst

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Industry Corporate and regional headquarters operations occur in all industry clusters and are a welcome addition to any local economy. For many years, Greater Richmond has proven to be an attractive headquarters location for both domestic and international firms. (Source: GRP)


+68,184

NAICS code 55


Likely

Altria GroupCarMax Inc.Dominion ResourcesGenworth FinancialMarkel Corp.

Massey EnergyMeadWestvaco Corp.Owens and Minor Inc.Southern States CooperativeThe Brink’s Company(Source: GRP)


Corporate headquarters have been a good fit for Richmond. The city's location and transportation infrastructure support this target. The regional (MSA) labor force provides a wide range of talent from which corporate employers can draw.


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Review of target industry options - Creative & Knowledge-based Servicesst

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Industry Firms in the creative and knowledge-based services sector draw on the skills and expertise of their employees. This cluster of firms includes legal, engineering and other professional services; custom computer software and multimedia; specialized design services; and advertising. (Source: GRP)


Timmons Group (engineering services)

Froehling & Robertson (engineering services)

Northrop Grumman (IT services)

AgilQuest (business hoteling software)

SyCom Technology (computer systems development)

Martin Agency (advertising)(Source: GRP)


+1,208,315

NAICS code 5413, 5414, 5415, & 5418

LikelyCreative and knowledge-based services have been a good fit for Richmond. The city's location and university infrastructure support this target. The regional (MSA) labor force provides a wide range of talent from which creative-oriented firms can draw.



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Review of target industry options - Finance & Insurancest

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Industry The finance and insurance cluster comprises establishments engaged in banking, brokerage, and investment banking, specialty finance and insurance. Greater Richmond is a proven and successful location for firms in all of these fields. It is a regional banking center and home to the Fifth District Federal Reserve. (Source: GRP)


Capital One (credit cards)

Genworth Financial (insurance)

Anthem (insurance)

Markel (insurance)

Anderson & Strudwick (brokerage & financial advisors)

Scott & Stringfellow (brokerage & financial advisors)

Davenport & Co. (brokerage & financial advisors)

Ewing Bemis (investment banking)

Matrix Capital Markets Group (investment banking)(Source: GRP)


+1,492,389

NAICS code 52The dramatic projected increase in US jobs reflects (1) national population growth (local bank branches, insurance agents, and investment advisors); and (2) a "bounce" in employment following an unusually harsh downturn in this sector.

PossiblyThe US financial services sector has suffered through a massive downturn. Widespread consolidation, mergers, and acquisitions could follow as the sector recovers. In the past Greater Richmond has attracted these types of firms and there may be opportunities again in the years ahead.



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Review of target industry options - Food Processing

LimitedAgain, the city's limited supply of greenfield sites may pose difficulties for some types of firms which need plenty of space for new development and future expansion. The city may find it difficult to compete with Richmond's suburban areas for these types of firms. That said, there may be limited opportunities for appropriate firms whose spatial requirements are relatively small.


+37,812



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Industry Food processing covers a large and growing range of products, processes and packaging options. Due to an increased demand for healthy food in recent years, organic foods are growing in popularity. Interest has also grown in international/ethnic foods and other specialty foods. Targets in this cluster include not only production facilities but also food industry supply chain vendors and suppliers. (Source: GRP)


Kraft (crackers and cookies)

Tyson Foods (poultry products)

Maruchan (noodle soups)

San J (soy sauce)

Fiorucci (Italian meat specialties)

Sauer’s (spices)

Sabra Dipping Company (hummus and dips)(Source: GRP)


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Review of target industry options - Information & Communication Technologies


LikelyInformation & communication technology is a broad target group. Urban areas often emerge with different ICT specializations such photo-optics (Rochester, NY) or semiconductor manufacturing equipment (Austin, TX). The Greater Richmond Partnership's definition is more service-oriented than manufacturing, and this makes sense for Richmond. The current political economy and Richmond's proximity to DC both imply that the city would be well served to focus specifically on security-related technologies.


+257,983

NAICS code 51

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Industry Information and communication technologies cluster are broad and diverse, encompassing the recording and motion picture industries, telecommunications, traditional and Internet publishing, as well as data processing and information services firms. Growth opportunities include cyber security and data centers, as well as customer care and service centers needed to support the virtual world. (Source: GRP)


Precision IR (webcasting & financial data)

Peak 10 (data center)

PLANIT Technology Group (IT consulting, security & disaster recovery)

Mondial Assistance (travel insurance support center)(Source: GRP)


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Review of target industry options - Life Sciences


LikelyRichmond's medical and university infrastructure provide a good framework for life sciences companies to grow. This is an emerging industry that will continue to grow and evolve in the years ahead.


+71,019


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Industry Life sciences encompass biotechnology, bioscience, pharmaceutical manufacturing and healthcare service industries. The Virginia Biotechnology Research Park, a 34-acre site located in downtown Richmond adjacent to the VCU Medical Center, is home to more than 55 companies, laboratories and research centers with 2,000 workers in 1.2 million square feet of space. (Source: GRP)


Wyeth (R&D & production of over-the-counter drugs)

Boehringer-Ingelheim Chemicals (pharmaceutical chemicals)

Wako Chemicals (clinical diagnostic reagents)

Commonwealth Biotechnologies (contract R&D)

PPD (drug development)(Source: GRP)


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Review of target industry options - Logistics

Very unlikelyAgain, the city's limited supply of greenfield sites may pose difficulties for logistics firms, which need plenty of space for new development and future expansion. The city may find it difficult to compete with Richmond's suburban areas for these types of firms.


+570,243

NAICS code 484, 488, 492 & 493


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Industry Logistics and supply chain establishments provide materials-handling and management, warehousing, packing, and transportation services. Greater Richmond resources include a Federal Express regional hub and a UPS district headquarters; rail services of CSX, Norfolk Southern and AMTRAK; and the U.S. Army Logistics University at Fort Lee as well as Defense Supply Center Richmond. (Source: GRP)


DSC LogisticsJacobson Companies Menlo Worldwide Logistics CEVA Logistics

Richmond Cold StorageCockrell Distribution SystemsRiverside LogisticsSchenker Logistics(Source: GRP)


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Review of target industry options - R&D

LikelyRichmond's medical, university, and state government infrastructure provide a good framework for R&D centers to grow. This sector will depend heavily on a talented regional workforce and may need to tap labor resources from throughout the MSA.


+163,210

NAICS code 5417


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Industry R&D centers can be internal corporate facilities, for-profit contract operations, or centers affiliated with a public or non-profit institution such as a university, hospital, civilian government agency, or military/defense agency.


Emerging Industries: Aderis Pharmaceuticals Clinical (pharmaceuticals)

Flexicell, Inc. (robotic packaging equipment)

Insmed (recombinant protein drug development)

Jewett Automation (custom automation equipment)

Magellan Systems International (synthetic fibers)

Traditional Industries:Afton Chemical Corp. (lubricants & fuel additives)

Alstom (gas & steam turbines, generators & components)

Altria Group (new technologies & products)

du Pont (chemicals)

Infilco Degremont (water & wastewater technology)


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Review of target industry options - Retail Food Storesst

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Industry

Possibly


+5,258

NAICS code


4451

Initial research by TIP strategies showed that the city's retail sector may be undersized relative to the suburbs. This may be in part because city residents shop at regional malls, shopping centers, or auto rows outside the city limits. Additionally, inner-city areas are often under-retailed on basic items like fresh produce. This may or may not be the case in Richmond, but encouraging full-service supermarkets to reach out to any under-served inner-city areas is a worthy goal.

Central cities are frequently underserved by some types of consumer services, including grocery stores (in general) and healthy food options (in particular).


Food LionEllwood Thompson'sMartin's Food MarketsKroger

West End SupermarketWawa Food MarketsShort Stop Food Stores


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Review of target industry options - Professional Services

LikelyThe professional services sector is slightly larger in scope than the fashionably-named "creative and knowledge-based services". Still, these categories cover roughly the same target firms, which tend to be small and medium-sized enterprises.


+3,402,957

NAICS code 54


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Industry Professional service firms can be large multinational operations (like PricewaterhouseCoopers, for example) but more often they are small and medium-sized (SME) operations that provide administrative or technical services to the broader local economy.

Professional offices in the Richmond MSA

accountantsengineersarchitectsgraphic designerscomputer programmersmanagement consultants

public relations & advertising agenciesmedia consultantssurvey & market researchersphotographerstranslatorstesting & inspection services


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Summary targeting potential for the city of Richmond

Logistics - Very unlikelyR&D Centers - LikelyRetail food stores - PossiblyProfessional services - Likely

Advanced manufacturing - LimitedClean tech - LimitedCorporate headquarters - LikelyCreative & knowledge-based services - Likely

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Finance & insurance - PossiblyFood processing - LimitedInformation & communication technologies - LikelyLife sciences - Likely


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Industry Outlook

Current size of the potential target industriesNumber of jobs in the City of Richmond as of 2010

SOURCES: EMSI Complete Employment - 2nd Quarter 2010

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■ Some potential targets may overlap. For example, creative & knowledge-based services are a subset of professional services.▪▪▪▪■ Based on TIP Strategies' definition, "advanced manufacturing" tracks total manufacturing employment since, in theory, all manufacturing firms will soon need to be "advanced" in their processes in order to survive.▪▪▪▪■ Emerging industries like clean tech, life sciences, and R&D centers are still quite small employers within the City of Richmond.

259

388

570

1,620

1,963

2,624

2,745

4,313

7,330

8,135

10,340

12,004

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

R&D centers

Life sciences

Clean tech

Retail food stores

Logistics

Information & communication technologies

Food processing

Creative & knowledge-based services

Advanced manufacturing

Finance & insurance

Corporate headquarters

Professional services


Page 55

Concentration ratios of the potential target industriesCity of Richmond, location quotient analysis, 2010US average for each industry = 1.00Regional strength > 1.25Regional weakness < 0.75


0.25

0.00

3.00

2.75

2.50

2.25

2.00

1.75

1.50

1.25 Average

0.75

0.50

1.25

1.00

2.00

3.00

2.75

2.50

2.25

Ave

rage

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■ Technologically advanced industries like R&D, logistics, clean tech, life sciences, and advanced manufacturing have a relatively small presence within the City of Richmond.▪▪▪▪■ We also confirmed that grocery stores are under-represented within the city based on relative employment patterns.▪▪▪▪■ The city's location quotient for corporate headquarters is 5.5, which in very strong. The US average is 1.0.

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.75

1.50

R&D center

sLogist

icsClea

n tech

Advance

d man

ufacturin

g

Retail f

ood stores

Life sc

ience

sInform

ation &

communica

tion te

chnologies

Finance

& in

suran

ce

Creativ

e & kn

owledge-b

ased

servi

ces

Profes

sional

servi

ces

Food proce

ssing

Corporat

e hea

dquarters

5.5


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US outlook for the potential target industriesNational job growth history (2003-2009) and forecast (2010-2020)

Advanced Clean Corp Creative Finance & Foodmfg tech HQs services insurance processing

6% 6%4% 4%2% 2%0% 0%

-2% -2%-4% -4%-6% -6%-8% -8%

-10% -10%

Information & Life R&D Retail ProfCommunication sciences Logistics centers food stores services

6% 6%4% 4%2% 2%0% 0%

-2% -2%-4% -4%-6% -6%-8% -8%

-10% -10%


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■ The national outlook for job growth for most of Richmond's potential targets is weak.▪▪▪▪■ Even in those sectors where a post-recession bounce in employment is forecast, the growth is expected to fade quickly.▪▪▪▪■ Manufacturing will take the longest of any of the potential targets to fully recovery.

2003

2020

forecast

2003

2020

2003

2020

2003

2020

2003

2020

2003

2020

2003

2020

2003

2020

2003

2020

2003

2020

2003

2020

2003

2020


Page 57

Growth scenarios for the potential targets, 2010 to 2020City of Richmond's growth under two different assumptions

US forecast conditions (national growth rates) City's growth assuming local patterns continue as in the recent past


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■ TIP ran two scenarios for Richmond's future job growth in the potential targets. One scenario applies national forecast growth rates to Richmond's current employment (blue bars). The other scenario uses EMSI's forecast for the city of Richmond (yellow bars). The forecasts diverge significantly for some sectors, including corporate HQs, logistics, food processing, and advanced manufacturing.▪▪▪▪■ The local industry mix in manufacturing, food processing (includes tobacco products), and logistics may explain why the local forecasts are worse than the national average.▪▪▪▪■ Many of the service sector targets are expected to grow under both scenarios.

-2,50

0-2,

000

-1,50

0-1,

000

-500 +0

+500

+1,00

0+1

,500

+2,000

+2,50

0+3

,000

+3,50

0+4,0

00


Retail food stores

Clean tech

Life sciences

Food processing

R&D centers

Information & communication technologies

Logistics

Corporate headquarters

Creative & knowledge-based services

Finance & insurance

Professional services


Page 58

Initial list of potential target industries for investigationBased on a review of national, regional, and local industry forecasts and conditions for the initial list of targets, TIP has prioritized each sector for either business recruitment or business retention.

▲▲

▲

Clean tech▼

Life sciencesR&D centersRetail food stores, especially fresh produce markets in underserved

i hb h d

Business retention as needed, but recruiting will be more competitive in suburbs

▲▲

▲▲

Food processingLogistics


Corporate headquartersProfessional services, especially SMEs

Priority target industries for the City of Richmond▲▲▲

▲▲

▲▲

▲▲

Creative & knowledge-based services, a key subset of professional servicesInformation & communication technologies, especially security technologiesFinance & insurance

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▼

▼

▼▼


Page 59

Proposed target industries - Corporate Headquarters

Employment multiplier(s)

1.6

Most major cities have concentrations of corporate headquarters; however, these are generally clustered by industry. In other words, not every city would have a cluster of corporate headquarters that would be a natural fit for Richmond. Los Angeles, for example, has a strong cluster of media-related companies, many of which would be unlikely to relocate to Richmond or even merge with or acquire a local firm. In considering the city's best fits, think in terms of the industries which already have a strong corporate or R&D presence. Geneally, these include financial services and power/energy/materials. The Boston-Washington corridor is rich with corporate offices for banking and insurance, especially New York, Philadelphia, Stamford, and Hartford. When considering energy, power, and raw materials, cities like Houston, Cleveland, Akron, and Pittsburgh, may have corporate bases that are good matches for Richmond.

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Location requirements & patterns

Why the City of Richmond?

Geographic concentrations

At a minimum, most corporate and regional offices will require a good selection of Class A office space at competitive prices. A proven pool of local management talent is also a good selling point. Also important is the presence of a major airport with multiple nonstop destinations. Hub airport cities often have an advantage in attracting corporate offices because they offer good air connections, but some hubs tend to be dominated by a single carrier and this can negatively impact local ticket prices. More airline competition at a given airport can mean more competitive prices for nonstop flights.

Richmond has a long history of supporting corporate headquarters. The city's location along the southern outskirts of the nation's most populous urban corridor (Boston to Washington) cannot be underestimated. With this location, Richmond offers fast access to the major east coast cities, but at a much smaller cost than, say, New York City, Boston, or Washington, DC.


Page 60

Proposed target industries - Professional services, especially SMEsin

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ok


Professional services firms spring up on their own to service local industries and the local population. Membership organizations and law offices often need to be located in or near the CBD to be close to courts and other government buildings. For all other types of professional services, there is less need to stay centrally located since employees and customers may be located in the suburbs. Attracting and keeping these professional service organizations in the CBD or other centrally located offices can often become a quality of life issue. Is the city a place they want to be? Is it a place that is as attractive for workers as it is for residents?


State capitals almost always have an advantage over other cities because of the "capital complex" effect on employment. It is good to have a critical mass of permanent activity like this in the city center that is attractive to professional services firms. Having universities and colleges nearby adds even more vibrancy.


Professional services firms are less likely to be recruited than to be retained and nurtured. The key geographic issue here is the city-or-suburb question. For those professional services firms that do not need to be in or near the CBD, what is it about the City of Richmond that will make them want to stay?


1.6


Page 61

Proposed target industries - Creative & knowledge-based services(a key subset of professional services)

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Some types of professional services, including multimedia, design, advertising, and some types of software, often employ workforces that are younger, more casual, and perform more highly creative tasks. These firms may be interested in creative workspaces (such as rehabbed buildings) and active street life. There may be more of a natural tendency for these businesses to want to be in an urban environment than a suburban one. A key issue for these firms will be the ability to attract and retain a skilled workforce with cutting-edge knowledge in a rapidly changing technological environment.


For the larger, successful firm that sells its services mostly outside the Richmond area (e.g., a gaming software firm) the quality and depth of the local market will be a decisive factor for expansion. Do Richmond's colleges and universities provide the scope and depth of fresh talent that these firms will need to grow (and stay) in the city of Richmond?


All cities have at least a few creative and knowledge-based firms that support local businesses, but a few cities have specific clusters of local firms who reach a much wider market. Most of the cities along the West Coast host strong in creative and knowledge-based service clusters, especially Los Angeles where a wide range of small multimedia firms support all aspects of film and television production. Along the East Coast, New York also has an unusually large base of creative firms that support its publishing, broadcasting, advertising, and fashion-marketing activities. University towns of all sizes also have an advantage, with students or professors sometimes taking a concept out of the lab or classroom to launch a new venture. Two of the most widely used statistical softwares, for example, SAS and Stata, are not based in Silicon Valley. They're in the college meccas of Raleigh/Durham, NC, and College Station, TX, respectively.


1.7 computer systems design1.6 architecture & engineering1.5 specialized design1.4 customized computer programming


Page 62

Proposed target industries - Information & communication technologies(especially security technologies)

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Information & communication technology (ICT) covers a broad range of activities. Due to its proximity to Washington metro area, a primary opportunity niche within ICT for Richmond is security services. While much of the security-related ICT activity may occur in the private sector, much of the market demand in the post-9/11 world comes from the public sector (e.g., installing webcams in subways, securing computer networks, screening airline passengers, and creating physical back-up sites for electronic public records and files).


Much of the cutting edge activity in ICT security occurs in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington. Many of the fast-growing companies performing this work may find Northern Virginia expensive and may also need to tap other labor supplies without straying too far from the Defense Department, Homeland Security, or other government markets or contacts. Richmond provides a perfect site for these types of expansions or relocations.


Washington, DC, is clearly the dominant government market for IT security, but demand will also be generated to a lesser degree, by state and local governments. In the private sector, all industries will need some degree of computer or network security. Some industries, like department stores and casinos, employ extensive surveillance equipment to protect against theft and other crimes among patrons. For Richmond, TIP suggests the growing number of security-oriented firms in the DC area (especially the Northern Virginia suburbs) will offer the greatest opportunities for expanding the local ICT sector.


1.7 computer systems design1.6 architecture, engineering1.5 specialized design1.4 customized computer programming


Page 63

Proposed target industries - Finance & insurancein

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Large banking and insurance companies often consolidate and move back-office operations to less expensive, remote locations. New York-based JP Morgan Chase operates a great deal of back-office activity in Tampa. Similarly, Boston-based Fidelity operattes back office facilities in the suburbs of Dallas-Fort Worth. Northern Virginia-based Capital One locates most of its support activities in the Richmond area. The 2008 economic crisis and the recently passed financial reform legislation imply that the years ahead will be a period of industry restructuring, which could include consolidation, mergers, acquisitions, and relocations.


The Boston-Washington urban corridor provides the highest density of financial services activities in the nation. Richmond's location along the southern outskirts of this corridor gives it fast access to the urban Northeast at relatively low cost.


The Boston-Washington corridor is rich with corporate offices for banking and insurance, especially New York, Philadelphia, Stamford, and Hartford.


1.6


Page 64

Proposed target industries - Life sciencesin

dust

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ok


Begining in the 1990s, biotech became one of the most sought-after industry recruitment targets thoughout the developed world. However, after many years of frustration, many economic development agencies have found it nearly impossible to "recruit" biotech companies. There are two reasons for this. First, biotech companies typically have strong ties to the local knowledge infrastructure (universities, medical schools, clinical, or teaching hospitals). Second, by the time biotech companies normally reach expansion size, they are acquired by larger pharmaceutical firms. The big pharma companies like Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson grow by acquisition, picking up new products by acquiring small life science start-ups where much of the initial


Based on location patterns, cities that have the most success in life sciences industries are those that have the necessary infrastructure in place to spawn a continuious stream of new companies. While Richmond does not have the extensive medical and university infrastructure of San Francisco or Boston (few places do), it certainly has more of the necessary pieces available than many of its competitors.


Life science concentrations in the US are strongest in Boston, Washington, DC/Maryland suburbs, Philadelphia, San Diego/Southern California, and the San Francisco Bay Area. Smaller concentrations can also be found in St. Louis, Houston, and Seattle. Life sciences are also growing outside the US, especially in Europe, Israel, and Japan. In Europe, life sciences firms are particularly well developed in Switzerland, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, France, Sweden, and Iceland. The merger and acquisition market between US and European firms is active. Companies from Israel and Japan may also be seeking ways to enter or tap into the US market. Building relationships with major industry players in these countries may be a viable strategy.


2.3 in-vitro diagnostic substance mfg.2.1 biotechnology; lab equipment mfg. 2.0 botanical-based medicine development; dental equipment mfg.1.9 pharmaceuticals; surgical supplies


Page 65

Proposed target industries - R&D centersin

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ok


R&D centers can be internal corporate facilities, for-profit contract operations, or centers affiliated with a public or non-profit institution such as a university, hospital, civilian government agency, or military/defense agency. Their location requirements and patterns will vary significantly, but the common theme is that all will require an ample labor market with advanced scientific or technical degrees.


Richmond's location along the southern end of the Boston-Washington urban corridor gives it fast access to the urban Northeast at relatively low cost. This corridor is home to many of the nation's largest companies, its most prominent universities, and, of course, the entire complex of federal government administration and research.


R&D centers for various activities can be found throughout the country but they are naturally going to be drawn to urban areas with highly educated labor markets, especially areas with high concentrations of science and engineering activities like the San Francisco Bay Area, Washington, DC, and Boston. In recent years, US companies have become more comfortable locating R&D facilities abroad, including high-profile locations like Cambridge (UK), Shanghai (China), and Bangalore (India). Richmond may want to consider that countries with active private-sector science and engineering activities but with small labor markets (e.g., Israel, Iceland) or shrinking labor markets (Japan) may be among the more likely foreign investors to locate R&D facilities in the US going forward.


1.7


Page 66

Proposed target industries - Retail food stores(especially fresh produce markets in underserved neighborhoods)

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In theory, retail chains will locate their stores close to untapped populations with spending potential. By this measure, all areas of a city or urban center should be evenly served, but research in recent years has shown that inner city neighborhoods tend to be surprisingly under-retailed, especially when it comes to healthy food options. Attracting more food retailers into under-served areas would not only serve the community well, it could in fact generate a few more local jobs in areas of the city where unemployment rates are highest and job skills may be somewhat limited.


In our initial research for the City of Richmond, TIP Strategies noticed that employment data showed the city to be somewhat under-retailed compared with the surrounding suburbs. We have, thus, extended this analysis to focus on food/grocery stores and have found the city's national location quotient (0.66) to be surprisingly low.


Retail store activities are some of the most evenly spread of all economic activities in the US. Except in areas with high tourist traffic, location quotients for retail activity rarely deviate too much from 1.0, the national average. As we noted, the City of Richmond's location quotient 0.66 for retail grocers and supermarkets is alarmingly low.

(Please note our research stopped here. We did not investigate nor do we imply correlations or causal relationships for this trend as other studies have attempted to do. We merely note that the location quotient is highly unusual and that underserved areas could reap the double benefit of better access to healthy foods and local jobs if more grocery options were located in these areas.)


1.5


Page 67

Workforce Implications

Connecting target industries to available laborOccupational groups most likely to be in demand by the targetsTarget industries by row; occupational groups in columns

>40% of target industry's jobs

25-40% of target industry's jobs



<1% of target industry's jobs

Occupational groups ►

Target industries ▼ Corporate headquarters 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Professional services 0.2 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Creative & knowledge-based services 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Information & communication technologies 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0.2 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Finance & insurance 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Life sciences 0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

R&D centers 0.1 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0.1 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Retail food stores 0.2 0.4 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0.1 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


wor

kfor

ce im

plic

atio

ns

■ This matrix shows the anticipated staffing patterns of firms in the target industries (based on national hiring trends for each industry).▪▪▪▪■ Some occupational groups (e.g., officea & administrative support and computer and mathematical science) would clearly be more in demand than others. ▪▪▪▪■ As a group, these target industries would boost occupational employment across a wide range of skill levels.

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Page 68

WORKFORCE RETENTION AND EXPANSION The Department of Economic and Community Development (DECD) has elevated the issue of workforce development as a central objective of the city’s economic development efforts. Moreover, rather than approaching workforce development programming from a purely social services approach, DECD is committed to a more holistic model that applies an economic development perspective to solving the challenges of long-term unemployment and poverty.

A central strategy of this approach is increasing the City’s capacity to directly engage Richmond businesses. The goal is to work with regional workforce development partners to craft demand-driven programs based on input from private sector employers. The input will be gathered from a strengthened Workforce Development Unit (WDU) composed of DECD staff conducting one-on-one interviews with Richmond businesses. These interviews are carried out as part of Business First Greater Richmond, a regional business retention and expansion program supported by City of Richmond, the Greater Richmond Partnership, and the Counties of Henrico, Hanover, and Chersterfied.

This section provides a general overview of the region’s workforce development resources and a more specific review of the City’s process and tools for collecting input from businesses to in order to design more effective workforce development programs.

Workforce Resource Mapping TIP was asked to prepare an overview of the federal, state, and local resources for prospective and existing businesses in Richmond. Below is a summary of the numerous organizations that provide workforce assistance services to individuals and businesses in Richmond.

Federal United States Department of Labor (DOL) (www.dol.gov) The Department of Labor fosters and promotes the welfare of the job seekers, wage earners, and retirees of the United States by improving their working conditions, advancing their opportunities for profitable employment, protecting their retirement and health care benefits, helping employers find workers, strengthening free collective bargaining, and tracking changes in employment, prices, and other national economic measurements. In carrying out this mission, the Department administers a variety of Federal labor laws including those that guarantee workers’ rights to safe and healthful working conditions; a minimum hourly wage and overtime pay; freedom from employment discrimination; unemployment insurance; and other income support.

U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Safety & Health Administration (www.osha.gov) The Occupational Safety and Health Administration aims to ensure employee safety and health in the United States by working with employers and employees to create better working environments.

State Virginia Economic Development Partnership (VEDP) (www.yesvirginia.org) VEDP offers a variety of incentives to prospective and existing businesses, including tax credits and tax exemptions.

Business First Greater Richmond Launched in October 2006, Business First Greater Richmond is a public-private collaborative regional initiative supported by the Greater Richmond Partnership, Inc, the City of Richmond, the Counties of Chesterfield, Hanover and Henrico. It is also supported by more than 80 business volunteers and other agencies in the region committed to the growth and retention of area businesses.

wwwbusinessfirstrichmond.com


Page 69

Virginia Employment Commission (VEC) (www.vec.virginia.gov) VEC provides a wide variety of no-fee services to employers, including exposure of job vacancies, recruitment assistance, labor market information, and tax credit information.

Virginia Department of Business Assistance (VDBA) (www.dba.virginia.gov) VDBA’s Workforce Services division provides customized recruiting and training services to companies that are creating new jobs or experiencing technological change. The program reduces the human resource development costs of new and expanding companies. Workforce Services offers consulting services, organizational development support, electronic media services, and funding.

Virginia Department of Housing and Community Development (DHCD) (www.dhcd.virginia.gov) DHCD manages the Virginia Enterprise Zone program, which is a partnership between state and local government that stimulates job creation and private investment within designated areas throughout the state. The enterprise zone program offers job creation grants to qualified businesses located within one of the state’s 50 designated enterprise zones. There are three enterprise zones located in and around the city of Richmond.

Virginia's Electronic Labor Market Access (VELMA) (www.vwn.virginia.gov/localwia.cfm) VELMA offers employers recruitment, labor market, and education services. As part of the Virginia Employment Commission, VELMA is able to provide labor market analysis, determine competitive starting salaries, provide information on suitable training providers and programs, and place job orders and candidates. VELMA also offers labor market research, economic and demographic data and comparative information over time and between regions.

Virginia Department of Labor and Industry (DLI) (www.doli.virginia.gov) DLI has responsibility for regulating payroll and wages, minimum wage, equal pay, right-to-work, child labor, apprenticeship training.

Virginia Council on Human Rights (www.chr.virginia.gov) The Council is responsible for programs to aid persons with disabilities, minors and the elderly and to prevent unlawful discrimination.

Virginia Department of Minority Business Enterprise (VDMBE) (www.dmbe.state.va.us) VDMBE provides certification of those businesses wishing to participate in the Commonwealth's minority business programs. VDMBE provides direct assistance to disadvantaged business owners, state and federal agency procurement officials, the Commonwealth's Historical Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) and prime contractors. VDMBE's Service Division provides management and technical assistance.

Local Reemploy Virginia – Richmond (www.vaemploy.com) This office is part of a new program by the VEC designed to serve businesses, claimants, and job seekers. 'Reemploy Virginia' is a team approach to plan and deliver reemployment services in communities around the Commonwealth. The goal is to assist employers in filling job vacancies and in assisting individuals in returning to work. Assistance will be provided with the Virginia Workforce Connection, the site where employers may post job openings and job seekers can register and find suitable jobs. Employers with job opportunities will be identified and the 'Reemploy Virginia' team will provide assistance in matching job seekers with available jobs. VEC staff that provides unemployment insurance assistance to claimants will advise and refer claimants to those services that are available to them.


Page 70

Greater Richmond Partnership (www.grpva.com) The GRPVA is the economic development agency for Richmond, Chesterfield, Hanover and Henrico and can direct new and expanding companies to local employment and training resources.

Greater Richmond Chamber (www.grcc.com) The Greater Richmond Chamber's mission is to serve its members and enhance the community by building a pro-business environment and outstanding quality of life. The chamber is a catalyst for business development and the voice of business in Greater Richmond.

Greater Richmond Small Business Development Center (www.grsbdc.com) The Greater Richmond Small Business Development Center is a partnership program between the U.S. Small Business Administration and the Greater Richmond Chamber including, providing assistance and training to help small business owners and potential small business. The GRSBDC offers confidential, individual counseling as well as workshops, conferences and courses at various locations in its service area.

Capital Region Workforce Investment Board (http://www.cawib.org/) The purpose of the Capital Region Workforce Investment Board is to increase private sector employment opportunities and to ensure the integration of services to prepare individuals to meet the needs of business and industry in the Richmond region. The CRWIB also oversees the activities authorized under the federal Workforce Investment Act (WIA) of 1998. The City of Richmond and the Capital Area have merged to create the newly formed Capital Region Workforce Partnership.

Virginia's CTE Resource Center (www.cteresource.org)

The CTE center offers a variety of products and services to the Virginia Department of Education, other state agencies funded under the Perkins Act, and local school divisions throughout the Commonwealth. The address for the Richmond Center is located on Bremo Road.

Community College Workforce Alliance (CCWA) (http://ccwa.vccs.edu/) CCWA is a partnership dedicated to supporting economic development and providing world-class workforce training and services to both the public and private sectors. Our vision is to maximize the talents and resources of J. Sargeant Reynolds Community College and John Tyler Community College in an effort to provide the workforce of Richmond, the Tri-Cities and surrounding counties with the highest training that enhances individual lives and the economic vitality of the Central Virginia region.

Adult and Continuing Education (ACE) (www.richmond.k12.va.us/adulted/) Specialization: Adult Basic Education Classes, GED Preparatory Classes

Adult Career Development Center (www.richmond.k12.va.us/schools/acdc/) Specialization: Certified Nursing Assistants, Childcare, Culinary Arts

Capital Area Training Consortium (www.co.henrico.va.us/catc/) Specialization: Career Assessment, Career Counseling, Employment and Re-employment Assistance

Richmond Technical Center (www.richmond.k12.va.us/schools/rtc109/) Specialization: Agriculture/Horticulture Sciences, Architectural and Engineering Drafting and Design, Auto Body Technology (Paint), Auto Body Technology (Repair), Automotive Technology, Barbering, Basic Carpentry, Beauty Salon Assistant, Building Management, Cosmetology


Page 71

Workforce Development The section below offers an evaluation of the effectiveness of existing workforce development programs within the DECD, focusing primarily on the existing business survey instrument. As mentioned above, DECD has recently modified its approach to workforce development programs by emphasizing demand-driven programs requested by local private employers. Since 20006, this information has been gathered from business interviews conducted by city staff as part of Business First Greater Richmond. Regional business are encouraged to fill out an interview request form on the Business First website and direct it to an economic development professional representing the community in which they are located – either Richmond or one of the partnering counties. DECD staff also target for interviews businesses that are participating in the City’s Commercial Area Revitalization Effort (CARE) program or are in one of the target industry growth sectors.

During the 2009/2010 program year, Business First professionals conducted 533 face-to-face interviews in the region. Of these, city staff conducted 66 interviews – 34 short of the goal of 100. Members of the interview team DECD staff and local business volunteers. Senior City elected leadership and staff participate in interviews with Richmond’s largest private employers.

The focus of the interview is a 12-page survey administered by the interview team. The survey, designed by Executive Pulse, solicits very specific information from businesses on such issues as workforce, sales, e-commerce, capital expenditures, and business climate. The completed surveys are submitted to the Greater Richmond Partnership, which enters the data, tabulates the results, and drafts an annual report.

To assess the nature and quality of questions contained in the survey, TIP utilized a business retention survey evaluation tool developed by Blane, Canada Ltd., a Canadian-based economic development consulting firm specializing in business retention and expansion. Blane,

Canada’s evaluation process is designed to provide a frame of reference for tailoring the survey questions to get the most out of interactions with business executives. The table below summarizes the breakdown of the Business First survey instrument compared to national averages of survey instruments in the U.S. and Canada.

Findings and Recommendations • According to the numbering of questions, the Greater Richmond

Business First survey contains 129 questions. For our count, TIP consolidated similar or compound questions as one question and did not include visit information section questions. After these adjustments, TIP still counted 85 total questions in the survey

Business Retention Survey Benchmarks Business First Survey National Averages Question Type Number Pct Number Pct Confirmation (CQ) 42 49% 16 53% Assistance (AQ) 0 0% 3.5 11% Problem Identification (PIQ) 15 18% 8 25%

Predictive (PQ) 8 9% 1 4% Industry Intelligence (IIQ) 2 2% 0 1%

Company Intelligence (CIQ) 16 19% 1.5 5%

Buyer/Supplier Linkages (BSLQ) 2 2% 0 1%

Total Number of Questions 85 100% 30 100%

Maximum/Minimum Count 54/15

Estimate of Average Survey Time 185 minutes 40 minutes


Page 72

instrument. This includes 17 compound, multi-part, or open-ended questions.

• According to Blane, Canada’s evaluation methodology, it would take an average of 185 minutes to complete the 85 questions in the Greater Richmond Business First survey. This amount of time is almost 5 times the national average of 40 minutes for 30 questions. TIP, however, recognizes that the Business First interviews do not consume 185 minutes of time. DECD staff report business retention interviews take approximately 45 minutes.

• Still, the survey should be shortened. Approximately 50 percent of the survey is devoted to Confirmation Questions (CQ), which seek basic information about the parent company, products, employment, wages, and real estate. If not already done so, most or all of this information could be gathered before the interview through basic web research, reading annual reports, or interviewing other staff members, rather than spending valuable time with top-ranking executives.

Executives value their time, and the interviewer must be respectful of this. Strategically, the time should be used for questions that are more valuable to the business retention team.

• The balance of question types is very similar to the national averages overall. However, the survey would benefit from fewer questions seeking basic company information and additional questions seeking to identify problems the company may be experiencing, predict possible trends, gain industry intelligence, and learn more about potential buyer/supplier linkages.

• The Local Workforce section of the survey should include some additional questions. First, there should be a question asking if there are training and education programs lacking in the region that are critical the company needs. In addition, the survey should ask what actions, if any, could the City take that would help attract, develop, and retain the talent their industry needs?

• The survey may include a few Assistance Questions (AQ). Such questions involve offering help to solve problems generally controlled by local and state government (e.g., zoning issues, taxes, transportation). While assistance questions should be minimized in surveys administered by non-governmental economic development organizations such as chambers of commerce, the DECD’s business retention team could incorporate assistance offers in their surveys and interviews. To maintain credibility with local businesses, the team must provide timely follow-up on any matters they agree to investigate.

• Increasing the number of Problem Identification Questions (PIQ) from 17 percent to 25 percent to improve the survey’s balance and focus. Alternatively, retain the existing number of PIQs and decrease the number of CQs. PIQs are highly valuable for an economic development organization because they target the firm’s unique challenges in the community and point to specific steps the

BRESurvey Completion Time Calculation

40 minutes (national average survey time)

+ 110 minutes

(2 minutes X 55 questions longer than national avg.) +

34 minutes (2 minutes X 17 compound questions)

= 185 minutes

(assumes a casual, conversational interview style)

Source: Step=by-Step: Business Retention Survey Evaluation, Blane, Canada Ltd.


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City of Richmond and its economic development partners may be able to take to retain the firm.

• The survey has a strong balance of Predictive Questions (PQs). At nine percent, the Greater Richmond survey more than doubles the national average of four percent in this area of questioning. PQs should help the City’s business retention team anticipate changes (whether positive or negative) that could impact the company. Investment patterns, new products, growing or contracting markets, and emerging technology are all issues that can be addressed through PQs.

• Add at least one Industry Intelligence Question (IIQ). Blane, Canada recommends as least three IIQs are included in business retention surveys. Such questions help the team understand the competitive environment in the industry where the company competes. IIQs should be used to explore industry trends, international competition, and other salient issues.

• Company Intelligence Questions (CIQs) should be increased from 18 percent of the survey to 30 percent. These questions cover management practices, markets, new products, and technological changes and will be closely related with PIQs.

• The Buyer/Supplier Linkages Questions (BSLQs) meet the recommended number. These questions are important because they provide the business retention team with opportunities to follow up with industries or companies that may interested in relocating closer to a significant buyer. This is an excellent way to generate investment leads for the city.


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PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND PRIORITIZATION

Investment Priorities One of the central objectives of the Richmond CEDS is the identification and prioritization of primary development and redevelopment opportunities in the city. TIP performed this analysis mindful of the current strategic economic development priorities at the national level. Consideration of national investment priorities in this process matters. The Economic Development Administration (EDA) requires a CEDS in order for a community or region to apply for investment assistance under EDA's Public Works or Economic Adjustment Assistance programs. Therefore, local projects that align with national investment priorities will be more likely to receive federal investment assistance.

EDA has established a number of investment programs designed to assist regions and communities to become more competitive in the global economy. The agency allocates its investment assistance through a competitive grant process. To facilitate the evaluation of competing grants, EDA has established the following investment priorities:

• Collaborative Regional Innovation

• Public/Private Partnerships

• National Strategic Priorities

• Global Competitiveness

• Environmentally-Sustainable Development

• Economically Distressed and Underserved Communities

EDA also favors projects that demonstrate the ability to use funds quickly and effectively and are linked to specific and measureable outcomes. Additionally, EDA favors initiatives that support the national strategic

priorities pursued by the federal government, which are intended to promote job creation and business expansion in the following areas:

• Clean energy

• Green technologies

• Sustainable manufacturing

• Information technology infrastructure

• Communities impacted by auto industry restructuring

• Natural disaster mitigation and resiliency

• Access to capital for small/medium & ethnically diverse enterprises

• Innovations in science, healthcare, & alternative fuel technologies

In addition to federal priorities, TIP included in its analysis two other critical considerations: (1) does a project align with local economic and community development priorities and (2) will the private sector support it.

Locally, Mayor Jones and his administration have embraced economic development as a core, foundational service. As Richmond’s economic development agency, the DECD has drafted a set of overarching economic development goals that articulate the City’s priorities. These goals are to encourage:

• Long-term growth and development of Richmond’s job base and labor force, and

• A sustainable local economy that:

− Affords access to opportunity for Richmond residents;

− Fosters viable mixed-income residential neighborhoods;

− Develops and supports Richmond’s tax revenue base; and


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− Maximizes the city’s assets and advantages without compromising the health of local communities and residents.

To achieve these goals, the City is organizing DECD’s programming to focus on business development (including attraction/recruitment, retention, and technical assistance), neighborhood revitalization, and workforce development efforts (primarily targeting underemployed and unemployed residents). These goals and efforts align well with national and EDA investment priorities.

Finally, in its evaluation TIP considered the market feasibility of prospective development opportunities. Too many communities and regions make the mistake of promoting projects that may conform to local, state, or national concerns, yet cannot generate investment or participation from the private sector. For example, a community may make a substantial investment in developing a new industrial park, only to find that for various competitive reasons it is unable to attract any tenets. As a consequence, TIP analyzed such factors as Richmond’s competitive advantages and disadvantages, regional investment patterns, and industry trends.

The intersection of the national, local, and market considerations, as illustrated in the adjoining Venn diagram, is the focal point for TIP’s evaluation of development and redevelopment opportunities in Richmond.

What EDA prefers


What EDA prefers


What EDA prefers



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Project Descriptions Below are brief descriptions of sites identified by the City and the consulting team as “high priority” for new development or redevelopment opportunities. Additional development concepts the City has considered for the sites are also provided.

Old Armstrong High School The Old Armstrong High School site consists of approximately 21 acres (two parcels) near the intersection of Nine Mile Road and Interstate 64 in the city’s East End. Owned by the City of Richmond School Board, the property contains a 150,000 square foot building built in 1951 that was used as Armstrong High School, a public education facility. The existing building has been sitting mostly vacant since 2004 when Armstrong merged with nearby John F. Kennedy High School and relocated to 2300 Cool Lane. The property also has several recreational and playground facilities owned by the City of Richmond’s Department of Parks, Recreation and Community Facilities.

The East End Transformation Plan, recently prepared for the City, is integral to a larger vision for the area. Some of the recommendations of the East End plan, however, may vary from the CEDS approach outlined below. Putting an emphasis on economic opportunity distinguishes our approach.

The size of the Armstrong site can be catalytic to redevelopment efforts in the East End. One envisioned use is to raze the existing building and construct a new facility that would house a skills development and education center focusing on clean technologies, healthcare, and other emerging technology fields. The facility could accommodate education and training needs for adults as well as high school and middle school students. For example, the site could serve as a new home for the ageing Richmond Technology Center (see below). In addition, the East End’s largest employer and stakeholder, Bon Secours Richmond

Community Hospital, might locate some healthcare skills and education programs to the site.

25th Street/Nine Mile Road Gateway Nine Mile Road in the city’s East End serves as an important primary gateway as commuters travel from Interstate 64 and Henrico County into the City of Richmond. Nine Mile Road and 25th Street also serve as the commercial spine for the historic Church Hill neighborhood. The 25th Street/Nine Mile Road corridor is poised for reinvestment and revitalization. The Richmond Redevelopment and Housing Authority (RRHA) has acquired numerous properties, using federal CDBG and HOME funds provided by the City of Richmond, along 25th Street and Nine Mile Road under a Redevelopment and Conservation Plan. RRHA has demolished and cleared many blighted structures and vacant parcels and now has site control in the corridor. Revitalizing this spine of the community through targeted public investments will spur additional private investment and redevelopment efforts throughout the neighborhood.

Port of Richmond and Adjacent Properties The Port of Richmond sits on approximately 120 acres bound by I-95 and the James River in south Richmond. At present, the port is financially and operationally underdeveloped; however, there is tremendous opportunity for the site and its assets. The furthest inland port on the Atlantic seaboard via the James, the Port of Richmond has access to freight rail and interstate highway transit immediately adjacent the site. A fair amount of the site remains undeveloped, and the available warehouse and operating spaces could be expanded. There is also opportunity for further development in the immediate area, with approximately 80 acres of undeveloped property along Commerce Road (immediately west of I-95) owned by Philip Morris and DuPont (about 60/20 split), and 2.5 million square feet of warehouse space on about 107 acres at the Alleghany Warehouses just over a mile north on I-95.


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Jeff Davis Highway Jefferson Davis Highway suffers from under-investment. It is one of Richmond’s most distressed corridors. It lacks viable businesses to serve the adjacent residential communities, which largely consist of low income households. The surrounding housing stock consists mostly of small, single family homes and public housing units inhabited by low income residents and a growing Hispanic population. The corridor has a substantial amount of vacant industrial property and dilapidated motels. The corridor’s needs in regard to public infrastructure investment, especially flood and storm water control, have crippled business and residential development in the area.

The Boulevard The Boulevard corridor has seen significant investment in the past few years, following streetscape improvements made in 2006 and 2007. A new 17-screen movie theater, two restaurants, a transportation company, as well as others have located along the corridor. The adjacent Scott’s Addition neighborhood has seen substantial commercial and residential reinvestment as well. However, there is considerable opportunity for further development of approximately 60 acres of City-, VCU-, and RMA-owned properties bounded by Boulevard to the west, Hermitage Road to the east, I-64/I-95 to the north, and the railroad tracks to the south. This opportunity would be contingent on the relocation of several City operations on the site (primarily General Services), and consideration of the treatment of the Diamond, Arthur Ashe Center, and VCU stadium.

Richmond Technical Center The Richmond Technical Center is Richmond Public School’s major vehicle for career and technical education. Located on a 16-acre campus near Interstates 195, 95 and 64, the school is a regional center for instruction. The Richmond Technical Center offers courses for middle and high school students. The on-campus Adult and Career Education

Center provides adult classes. Currently the Center provides over 40 dual enrollment and honors courses and 54 credential programs to 1,421 students, in partnership with 123 business and community partners. Environmental technology and LEED construction are two new areas of focus, though opportunities abound for partnership training with members of the business community on a regional as well as local scale.

Cloverleaf Mall While Cloverleaf/Greenbrier Mall itself is in Chesterfield County, there are approximately 120 acres of undeveloped, privately-owned real estate immediately west of the Chippenham Parkway which are in the City. The current zoning is residential. In the past there have been discussions about the potential for a collaborative project between the City and the County to develop a technology park, or other cost and revenue sharing development efforts.

Biotech Park Expansion The Virginia Biotechnology Research Park in downtown Richmond is a joint initiative of the Commonwealth of Virginia, the City of Richmond, and Virginia Commonwealth University. It is home to the Philip Morris Research Center, the headquarters of the United Network for Organ Sharing, and the offices of the State Medical Examiner. Overall, the park hosts over 63 bioscience companies, research institutes, non-profits and government laboratories in nine buildings. The facilities themselves encompass over 1.1 million square feet of space and represent a total capital investment exceeding $525 million. Biotech Ten is the next building to be constructed in the Park and will house two proposed new centers: the Virginia Biosciences Education and Visitors Center (VBEVC) and the Virginia Life Sciences Commercialization Center (VLSCC). As envisioned, the VBEVC would be a state-of-the-art center designed to accommodate visiting delegations. More importantly, the center would serve as a bioscience education laboratory offering experiential learning opportunities for the region’s middle and high school students. The


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VLSCC would include offices, wet and dry labs, and some light assembly space. It would be designed to accommodate growing life sciences and clean tech companies in the critical “middle ground” of space needs between 2,500-5,000 square feet.

The Coliseum, Blues Armory, & Festival Park The Richmond Coliseum sits on approximately seven acres of property bound on the north by East Leigh Street, on the west and on the east by 5th and 7th Streets respectively, and on the south by Festival Park and the 6th Street Marketplace/Blues Armory. The coliseum seats approximately 12,000 to 13,500 people, depending on its configuration. It is in need of substantial revitalization, including a new roof and painting, among other maintenance and repairs. The City is currently working with private sector partners, and has engaged a consultant to determine the highest and best use of the property on which the coliseum sits, as well as to consider whether the coliseum should be improved, removed, or replaced in its present or a different location. The Blues Armory on the corner of 6th and Marshall Streets are listed on the National Register of Historic Places, and were most recently used for City offices and dining. The 1910 light infantry armory and the attached enclosed market known as the 6th Street Marketplace were considered by a ULI TAP in 2008; the group suggested that the building be adapted into a boutique hotel or residential property. The TAP also concluded that the success of any project involving the Blues Armory/6th Street Marketplace would be contingent upon improvement or repositioning of the Coliseum.

Primary City Gateways Richmond is fortunate to have significant rail and automotive transportation assets, including two interstate highways, one of which (I-95) is one of the most heavily traveled in the country. In addition, Richmond’s position as the central urban core of a larger metropolitan region also means there are major arterial streets which connect the city to the neighboring counties. Both the interstates and these arterial

streets create a plethora of “gateways” through which substantial traffic enters the City. Unfortunately, it is widely recognized in the tourism and economic development communities that Richmond has not properly capitalized on these gateways to create a sense of arrival, or to ensure that these gateways are aesthetically pleasing. The primary gateways which warrant a revitalization strategy include:

• West Broad Street entering the city at Staples Mill

• Exits off I-64/I-95, including Boulevard/Hermitage, 3rd Street/5th Street, Chamberlayne/Belvidere, 15th Street/Franklin Street, 17th Street/Broad Street (near Cold Storage)

• 360 West entering the city at I-64

• Midlothian Turnpike, Hull Street, and Jefferson Davis Highway entering the city from Chesterfield, and entering downtown from southside

• Route 60 West entering the city at Montrose Heights, and Route 5 North entering the city at Rockett’s Landing

• Nine Mile Road, and Creighton/Fairfield entering the city at I-64

• Laburnum Road entering the city on Northside, and Chamberlayne at Azalea

Broad Street Corridor Broad Street is a major east-west traffic artery which runs through Richmond, and serves as a gateway to downtown, VCU, and many of the retail and entertainment venues in the City. However, Broad Street from 5th Street to Belvidere is characterized by blight, vacancy, and disinvestment. While much of Belvidere to Foushee Street has been revitalized, driven largely by the burgeoning art community and the growth of VCU over the past several years, there are still opportunities in this area. However, Foushee Street to 5th Street represents an even more distressed area. A complicating factor is that a significant number


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of opportunities have been assembled by a single development interest, and the developer currently lacks the capacity to revitalize all of the properties. The Broad Street corridor is a high priority revitalization target due to its arterial nature; its proximity to downtown, VCU, other key corridors in need of revitalization; and its significant public assets and major entertainments venues.

Manchester and Hull Street Manchester, located on the south side of the James River from Downtown, is characterized by its gridded cobblestone streets and late 19th century industrial warehouses. Hull Street serves as the major east-west thoroughfare for the south side of Richmond and was a thriving retail corridor until markets moved to more suburban locations in the 1960s through 1980s. In Manchester, the sale of vacant land to private developers has reinvigorated the neighborhood. Local developers are building single-family, two-family, multifamily residential, retail space and senior housing for rent and sale. Recently, the City completed a major expansion of the Manchester courthouse, and relocated court facilities and the Commonwealth Attorney’s Offices to this location. The “industrial” portion of Hull Street has also experienced significant reinvestment in recent years by way adaptive reuse of warehouse buildings. While Hull Street continues to be a significant commuter route, numerous storefronts that line the street remain vacant.

Shockoe Bottom (Study Area) The Shockoe Bottom study area is one of the most historically significant neighborhoods in the Richmond, due to its role in the slave trade during the 18th and 19th centuries, its later industrial and commercial growth and success during the heyday of the canal, and its key role in rail transportation. With easy access to I-95, I-64, Broad Street, Main Street, the Capital Trail, the Slave Trail, the Canal Walk, and Main Street Station, there is a high and increasing volume of pedestrian, bicycle, auto, and rail traffic. There are approximately 20 acres of undeveloped

and vacant property in addition to underinvested areas. Property owners include VCU, the City, and several private interests, most notably the Loving family. Federal, State and City resources have been heavily invested in the area, primarily to develop and improve transportation and storm-water management infrastructure. There are many key commercial, government, historic, cultural, and residential stakeholders who would be involved in any development effort in the area. Such development must incorporate the area’s African American heritage and history, the area’s industry, commerce and transportation history, and the current resident and business communities of Shockoe Bottom and adjacent neighborhoods.

GRTC’s Cary Street Property The GRTC site is a 6.8 acre site located at Robinson and Cary Street in the Fan District. For over 100 years, the property has housed the operations and maintenance facilities for the Greater Richmond Transit Authority (and predecessor entities). The property consists of seven buildings totaling approximately 118,000 square feet, all of which are historic in nature. The property’s location is strategic because it is in close proximity to the Downtown Expressway. It’s location on Cary Street is just due east of the Carytown shopping district and on the outskirts of the Fan District, one of the most desirable historic housing districts in the region. The size, location, zoning and nature of the property make it an ideal candidate for a mixed use development plan, a concept supported by the City’s Master Plan.

Fulton Gasworks Site & Proximity The Fulton Gasworks Site is located on Williamsburg Road adjoining the ongoing Rocketts Landing development. The Gasworks and nearby RRHA property along Williamsburg Road encompass about 18 acres. The site is bounded by Williamsburg Road to the north and northeast, Nicholson Street and private industrial parcels to the south and the CSX Railroad Trestle to the west. The two properties have known


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environmental contamination from the City’s gas works from 1850-1950. Additional city-owned parcels are located along East Main Street (on both sides) including the City Dock and the Lehigh Cement Plant under option to the City. The City’s Capital Trail is scheduled to follow the river along the redevelopment parcels. Additionally, this strategy will entail acquiring approximately 4.58 acres of CSX surplus property, which divides properties owned by the City and the Housing Authority. In total, approximately 35 acres are involved.

Revolving Loan Fund (RLF) As part of the EDA’s Economic Adjustment Assistance Program, EDA’s regional offices award competitive grants to units of local government, state governments, institutions of higher education, public or private non-profit organizations, EDA-approved economic development district organizations, and Indian Tribes to establish RLFs. EDA’s RLF recipient, in turn, disburses money from the fund to make loans at interest rates that are at or below market rate to small businesses or to businesses that cannot otherwise borrow capital. As the loans are repaid, the grantee uses a portion of interest earned to pay administrative expenses and adds remaining principal and interest repayments to the RLF’s capital base to make new loans. A well-managed RLF award actively makes loans to eligible businesses and entities, continues to revolve funds, and does not have a termination date. EDA-funded RLFs in Virginia include the Cities of Lynchburg, Newport News, Norfolk, as well as the Crater, Cumberland Plateau, Mount Rogers, and Southside Planning Commissions. The Virginia Small Business Financing Authority manages a statewide RLF. The City of Richmond has a Neighborhoods in Bloom RLF, which is underwritten by the Richmond Economic Development Corporation.

PROJECT EVALUATION MATRIX Many of the areas described above have significant development potential and offer real economic opportunity. However, not all are

appropriate for EDA or City investment assistance. To prioritize development opportunities most suitable for EDA and City support, TIP utilized a project evaluation matrix for scoring each project according to six criteria listed below.

• Focus (is the project well defined?)

• Impact (e.g., well-paying jobs, tax base, private investment)

• Does it meet EDA priorities?

• Does it support local considerations? (e.g., political & community support, links with community development priorities)

• Market viability (Will the private sector support it?)

• Schedule (Can it be achieved expeditiously & realistically?)

The project evaluation matrix on the following page lists each site in the first column and each of the six criteria along the top row. The sites were scored on a scale of one to five (low to high). The final column provides the total score for each site. According to TIP’s analysis and scores, the two highest priority sites/projects for pursuing EDA investment assistance are the following:

• Bio Tech Park Expansion

• Old Armstrong High School

Many of the other sites represent high priority economic development investment needs for Richmond. Indeed, TIP will propose an area development strategy for the Manchester area, which received the third highest score in the matrix. However, TIP feels that the Bio Tech Park expansion and redevelopment of the Armstrong High School site represent the development opportunities with the highest potential for receiving EDA investment assistance.


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PROJECT EVALUATION MATRIX

Projects are scored on a scale of 1 to 5 for each criterion.

Project Focus Impact EDA Local Market Schedule Total Score

Old Armstrong High School 4 3 4 5 4 3 23

25th Street Nine Mile Road (gateway) 2 3 2 5 2 2 16

Port of Richmond, Allegheny Property (mega site) Industrial Land Near Port

3 3 3 3 3 2 17

Jeff Davis Highway 1 2 3 5 2 1 14

The Boulevard 3 4 2 3 5 2 19

Richmond Technical Center 3 3 3 4 2 2 17

Clover Leaf Mall (gateway, regional cooperation) 1 2 2 3 2 2 12

Biotech Park Expansion 5 4 4 3 4 4 24

Coliseum, Blues Armory, & Festival Park 3 3 1 3 3 3 16

Primary City Gateways 2 4 2 4 3 2 17

Broad Street Corridor 2 3 2 4 4 3 18

Manchester Area and Hull Street 3 4 3 4 4 3 21

Shockoe Bottom (study area) 2 3 2 4 4 3 18

GRTC site along Carey 3 3 2 4 4 2 18

Fulton Gas site & proximity 3 3 3 3 3 2 17

Revolving Loan Fund (EDA –funded Loan Program) 4 3 4 3 3 3 20


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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY SITE STRATEGY Based on the project evaluation matrix scores, TIP recommends the City of Richmond pursue EDA investment assistance for the expansion of the Virginia Biotechnology Research Park and the redevelopment of the Armstrong High School site. Both projects represent real economic opportunity locally and regionally. In addition, both will require participation from other local public and private partners to succeed. The primary differences between the two opportunities are the level of City participation and the amount of planning that has already occurred for each. Below we present development strategies for both opportunities.

VIRGINIA LIFE SCIENCES AND COMMERCIALIZATION CENTER The next planned expansion of the Virginia Biotech Park is Biotech Ten. As envisioned, Biotech Ten will house a Virginia Life Sciences Commercialization Center (VLSCC) and a Virginia Biosciences Education and Visitors Center (VBEVC). In addition, the facility will accommodate administrative offices for the Park itself, expansion space for the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), and the planned National Center for Transplant Excellence.

The proposed building will have approximately 85,000-90,000 square feet of space. It will also include parking for about 190 cars and a visitor drop-off area to accommodate large vehicles bringing groups to the Park. According to the park’s master plan, Biotech Ten will be located across the street from Biotech Seven, on a park-owned parcel bounded by East Jackson, North 4th, and East Leigh Street. The estimated cost of BioTech Ten is between $24 and $27 million.


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A core component of Biotech Ten is the VLSCC. Among its existing nine buildings, the park features an incubator facility and two multi-tenant buildings. Since its opening, the incubator has successfully graduated 68 start-up life sciences firms. However, the incubator is only designed to accommodate enterprises requiring 1,200 square feet or less of space. Moreover, the park’s multi-tenant buildings are specialized for larger tenants needing 5,000+ square feet under longer lease terms. Consequently, second-stage companies requiring between 2,500 and 5,000 square feet of space have no options within the park. Indeed, many would prefer to remain in the park to take advantage of its concentration of talent, technology, support services, and networks. But because the Virginia Biotech Park is unique to the region, some graduating companies may choose to relocate to other metro areas with similar life science concentrations.

As planned, the VLSCC will occupy 20,000-25,000 square feet on two floors located over the surface parking at the south end of the structure. It would be designed to accommodate offices, wet and dry labs, and some light assembly. The facility is estimated to cost $6-$8 million of the total cost of Biotech Ten.

Under current plans, Biotech Ten will be developed in two phases. The phase I portion of the project includes construction of the VBEVC and expansion space for UNOS. This phase is planned for completion in the 3rd quarter of 2012. The VLCC facilities will be constructed as part of phase II of the development. The phasing of the project is tied to available funding and the need to meet the more urgent space needs of UNOS. While phasing allows the park to develop the facility as funding allows, it also drives up the total design and construction costs for the project. Constructing the facility as a whole is less expensive than building it out in stages.

Therefore, to expedite the development of the VLSCC, TIP recommends the City of Richmond work with the state and local partners in the park to

pursue an EDA investment grant to fund a portion or all of the costs of developing the center.

Our recommendation of Biotech Ten as a priority project for Richmond is based on the following:

• It is the most well-defined of the potential development opportunities. The Virginia Biotechnology Research Park has already completed a concept study for the facility.

• With sufficient funding, the construction of Biotech Ten could be completed in two years. Much of the funding will be raised from private sources, which meets the EDA aim of using public grants to leverage private capital.

• The purpose of the VLSCC is to provide flexible space to maturing firms in the life sciences field. Such enterprises enhance the global competitiveness of the US and help fuel innovations in science and healthcare.

• The commercialization center will also further the park’s mission of attracting new jobs and investment to an area of Richmond that suffered economically for years. For example, additional employment at the park could lead to new investment in housing and commercial activity in nearby Jackson Ward.

• The education and visitors center will directly expose the region’s middle and high school students to the life sciences field and will provide learning experiences to students and teachers. Interaction with scientists, researchers, and entrepreneurs may encourage and inspire Richmond’s children to pursue careers in life sciences research and business.

• The commercialization center increases the likelihood of retaining intellectual property and technology in life sciences. Research and development at VCU will be well positioned


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remain in Richmond once it is commercialized or transferred to the private sector.

Next Steps At present, the Virginia Biotechnology Research Park is proceeding with plans to develop Biotech Ten. The park is actively seeking to engage an architectural firm to design the site and building. Private fundraising efforts are underway as well as a feasibility study for naming rights to the visitors and education center.

In the near term, the City of Richmond should assist in the project’s development by working with the park on approving requested zoning changes to the parcel. This step should occur in the 4th quarter of 2010. Also in the 4th quarter, City leadership and DECD staff should begin meeting with representative of the Biotech Park and VCU regarding the joint pursuit of an EDA investment grant to fund all or a portion of the commercialization center.

As the owner of the property, the Biotech Park will have the primary role in overseeing the design, fundraising, financing, construction, and management of the building. However, the City of Richmond and VCU can play important roles. VCU should explore how its VCU Tech Transfer

program can participate in the VLSCC, including programmatically and physically. In addition to applying for an EDA investment grant, the City can support the project by assisting with zoning, permitting, and infrastructure. In addition, Richmond Public Schools can work with the park to establish formal visitation and experiential learning programs at the VBEVC.

Finally, to support business and job creation at the Biotech Park and throughout Richmond, the City and its partners should consider establishing a revolving loan fund (RLF) focused on small and medium-sized companies in the life sciences field. Access to capital is one of the greatest challenges fast-growing small businesses face, especially in the current economic environment. One option for seeding a Richmond life sciences RLF is to pursue an EDA grant in conjunction with an application for VLSCC investment assistance. Additionally, private sources of seed capital could be sought, particularly from the region’s large healthcare, life sciences, and advanced manufacturing employers.

Summary The development of the Virginia Biotechnology Research Park has been a major achievement in establishing Richmond as a center of life sciences education, research and development, and commerce in the eastern US. The development of Biotech Ten has the potential to expand the park’s impact on the city and the region by attracting and retaining high value jobs and investment as well as inspiring new generations to pursue careers in one of the nation’s most important fields.

VCU Tech Transfer

VCU Tech Transfer began in 1994 for the purpose of protecting and commercializing valuable VCU inventions and creations. VCU Tech Transfer is one office that is made up of 2 different legal entities: the Office of Technology Transfer (OTT) and the Intellectual Property Foundation (VCU-IPF). The Office of Technology Transfer resides within the Office of the Vice President for Research at VCU. The Intellectual Property Foundation is a not-for-profit foundation that is responsible for commercializing VCU discoveries.

http://www.research.vcu.edu/ott/index.htm


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OLD ARMSTRONG HIGH SCHOOL One of the City’s highest economic and community development priorities is the revitalization of the East End. To create a vision for the area’s revitalization, the City of Richmond joined Bon Secours Virginia Health System and the Richmond Redevelopment and Housing Authority to develop an East End Transformation Plan. The project involved the internationally respected planning firm, Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company, leading a week-long Charrette consisting of representatives from neighborhood residential associations, business owners, foundations and corporations, and students. The goal of the project was to identify projects that will lead to revitalized housing, educational, and economic opportunities.

One of the areas key assets discussed during the Charrette was Armstrong High School. Vacant since 2004, the high school encompasses 150,000 square feet and sits on 21 acres. Much of the discussion on Armstrong focused on possible reuses of the existing facilities. The consensus of the Charrette was to redevelop the property as a career and technical training center and transform the existing cafeteria into a commercial kitchen as a business incubator for neighborhood residents.

However, TIP recommends a more ambitious goal of demolishing the existing facilities and constructing a new state-of-the-art, LEED certified career and technical training center focusing on green technologies, healthcare, and other emerging technology fields. The facility could accommodate education and training needs for adults as well as high school and middle school students from around the region. The ageing Richmond Technology Center could be relocated to the site and serve as an anchor. Other potential partners in the project include J. Sargeant Reynolds Community College and Bon Secours Richmond Community Hospital. The City should approach both organizations about locating education and training programs at a new facility.

This concept represents another potential target for EDA investment assistance, as it incorporates many of the strategic investment priorities articulated by the Obama Administration and the EDA. It also addresses some critical needs of the immediate area and of the community.

TIP’s recommendation to redevelop the Armstrong site with a new facility is based on the following:

• While the idea is only conceptual, it does involve an existing site the City controls. There is no need for a lengthy process of property acquisition and assembly.

• A new state-of-the-art skills development and education center has a substantial potential impact on the city. It would offer existing residents the opportunity to learn about and receive specialized training in high-demand fields such as green technologies and information technology.

• EDA is more likely to award investment assistance to projects involving new construction versus rehabilitation.


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• A new facility could incorporate green building technologies and achieve Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certification, making it even more attractive for federal support.

• A state-of-the-art facility has the potential to serve as catalyst project for the East End and Nine Mile Road Corridor, as it would attract people from all over the region on a daily basis.

• Because the facility would benefit employers in the region, private participation and support may be feasible.

• Relocating the existing Richmond Technical Center to the site would obviate the need for costly remodeling and upgrades to the ageing structure.

• Bon Secours

Next Steps • A feasibility study should be conducted to refine the concept and

demonstrate the legal, physical, environmental, programmatic, and financial feasibility of the project.

• Work with Richmond Public Schools to determine the cost and programmatic impacts of relocating the Richmond Technical Center.

• As stated in the East End Transformation Plan, a new transportation connection from the Armstrong to Nine Mile Road should be evaluated.

• Approach Bon Secours, J. Sargeant Reynolds, and other entities about their potential interest in participating in the project.

Summary The redevelopment of Armstrong High School into a modern skills development and education center represents a significant economic and community development opportunity for Richmond. However, for it to have the greatest impact on the citizens and businesses of Richmond, TIP recommends an ambitious redevelopment involving a new facility constructed with green building technologies and utilizing state-of-the-art facilities and equipment. Such an approach has greater probability of helping to revitalize the East End and prepare Richmond’s residents for the jobs of tomorrow.

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy – Development Strategies & Actions

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INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR DEVELOPMENT The Richmond area is served by three primary economic development organizations, and a handful of organizations with narrower economic development missions. In addition to the Department of Economic and Community Development, both the Greater Richmond Partnership and the Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce contribute to the economic development activities of the city and surrounding counties. The Economic Development Authority (EDA) has the authority to issue tax-exempt industrial revenue bonds on behalf of the city. These bonds can be used to acquire, own, lease, and dispose of properties for the purpose of promoting industrial, R&D, and commercial developments in the city. Other economic development organizations in Richmond include Venture Richmond, the Richmond Economic Development Corporation, and the Convention and Visitors Bureau.

In addition to the economic development organizations profiled in the table, there are a number of regional organizations that play an important role in the economic growth of the city and region. The city’s post-secondary education instutions, including VCU, the University of Richmond, Virginia Union University, John Tyler Community College, and J. Sargeant Reynolds Community College are critical partners in talent development and attraction, entrepreneurship, and marketing. Advantech and the Virginia Biotechnology and Research Park promote new business formation and development, technology commercialization, and research and development. Finally, the Richmond Regional Planning District Commission and the Richmond Area Metropolitan Planning Organization play important roles in regional planning, resources development, and infrastructure development.

RICHMOND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ORGANIZATIONS

ORGANIZATION PURPOSE/FUNCTION City of Richmond, Department of Economic and Community Development

Markets the city to businesses and developers, promotes industrial facilities and commercial development, business retention, works with minority and disadvantaged businesses.

Greater Richmond Partnership Represents the City of Richmond and surrounding counties. Involved in business recruitment, marketing and site location assistance for businesses interested in locating in the Richmond region. Compiles data and research on Greater Richmond area.

Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce

Engages in business advocacy, networking, quality of life, small business support, and international businesses development activities.

Richmond Economic Development Corporation

Supports micro-enterprise initiatives in the city, with special emphasis on serving businesses located in the city’s three enterprise zones.

Richmond Economic Development Authority

Issues tax-exempt bonds on behalf of the City of Richmond, acquires, owns, leases, and disposes of industrial/commercial properties, runs the Advantech Incubator Program.

Metropolitan Business League Promotes minority entrepreneurship and small business development, serves as an advocate, information clearinghouse and resource for minority-owned businesses.

Venture Richmond Attracts businesses and visitors to the downtown. Historic Richmond Foundation Works toward the preservation of Richmond

historical sites, buys and sells property, undertakes restoration projects, carries out educational programs, and serves as an advocate for historic preservation in the city.

Richmond Convention & Visitors Bureau

Promotes the Richmond area as a destination for leisure, business and convention travel.

Greater Richmond Technology Council

Promotes technology-based economic development in the region.


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PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE NEEDS Richmond’s transportation infrastructure to support economic development is overall, an asset. The city is intersected by two interstate highways, providing both north-south and east-west access to major markets and transportation hubs. It is served by Richmond International Airport (RIC), a modern airport that hosts eight commercial carriers and is located 10 minutes from downtown. In 2007, RIC underwent a $280 million renovation and expansion. New facilities at the airport include an air traffic control tower, a two-level terminal, ticketing and baggage claim halls, terminal roadway, and restaurants. Richmond is home to two major freight rail carriers (CSX and Norfolk Southern). AMTRAK also provides passenger rail service, offering eight northbound and eight southbound trains every weekday. Located on the James River south of downtown, the Port of Richmond is a domestic and international multi-modal freight and distribution center serving waterborne, rail, and truck shippers in mid-Atlantic states.

Headquartered in Richmond, Dominion Virginia Power is the major provider of electrical power to the city and the region. Richmond’s Department of Public Utilities (DPU) operates natural gas, water, wastewater, storm water, and electric street lighting utilities. DPU serves more than 500,000 residential and commercial customers in Greater Richmond.

Despite these advantages, continued improvement and expansion of infrastructure is critical to the long-term economic growth of Richmond. Below are some of the more important infrastructure needs related to supporting industrial and commercial development in the city.

Public Transportation The GRTC Transit System is the public transportation authority for Richmond and the surrounding region. GRTC operates a fleet of 186 buses traveling over 40 separate routes within the City of Richmond and

Henrico County. A limitation of the GRTC bus system is the lack of bus routes to many significant employers and sites in the region, especially in the surrounding counties. While GRTC is a regional system, only a portion of Henrico County is served and Hanover and Chesterfield Counties have no bus service. As a consequence, workplace availability is a major challenge to Richmond residents without vehicle access. The situation is particularly difficult for hourly workers needing access to retail and service jobs outside the city.

To improve regional mobility, the GRTC has been partnering with the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation (DRPT), and Richmond Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (RAMPO) to devise an integrated strategy for investment in a regional transit infrastructure. The initial focus of this effort is Broad Street Rapid Transit Study. The Broad Street corridor is one of the most important commercial corridors in Richmond. The purpose of this study is to identify a package of improvements that will increase overall mobility and serve existing patterns of transit-oriented development and redevelopment in the corridor. Rapid transit improvements being reviewed include Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), which uses a combination of new routes, stations, and roadway improvements to provide a faster, more efficient transit service.

One of the major goals of the initiative is to support economic development along the corridor with the following objectives:

• Improve transit access to existing and future developments

• Create connections between transit and centers of employment, education, residence, shopping, culture, and entertainment

• Provide opportunities for joint development of transit stations and facilities

The study is scheduled to be completed in mid 2011. Once completed, the regional partners plan to submit an application to the US Department


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of Transportation for grant funding in order to begin construction. The target is to have the rapid transit improvements completed by 2015.

A successful rapid transit system along the Broad Street Corridor has real economic development potential for Richmond. In addition to providing opportunities for new commercial and retail development along Broad Street, it would offer increased mobility for the city’s workforce, especially those needing efficient access to major retail centers in Henrico County. Moreover, it would hopefully demonstrate the economic value of regional public transportation infrastructure to the surrounding counties.

For its part, the City of Richmond should continue providing technical and policy support to the study. It should also actively support efforts at securing federal funding for the infrastructure improvements and provide appropriate City resources and management during the construction phase.

More broadly, the City along with the GRTC and RAMPO should persist in encouraging the surrounding counties to embrace a regional approach to public transportation. In addition, City and regional planning officials should work to convince the Virginia General Assembly to provide legal authorization for the formation of a regional transportation authority with dedicated tax funding. Enhancing labor mobility through expanded public transportation will benefit both workers and employers throughout the region.

Capital Road Improvements The Capital Projects Division is the City department responsible for all new infrastructure projects in Richmond. The division manages all state and federally funded road projects within the city. According to its most recent schedule of upcoming road projects, CPM lists almost 50 planned

road construction and improvement projects in Richmond.1 Of these, three future projects will have a significant impact on commercial and industrial development in Richmond.

• Route 5 Relocation, Phase 1 – This project involves realigning and widening Route 5, from City Line at Henrico County to the proposed traffic round-about at Nicholson Street, including tie-ins. The Route 5 corridor has traditionally served as one of the most important transportation routes in East Richmond. In recent years, the corridor has transitioned from low-density residential, industrial, and rural land uses to mixed-use urban land uses. Route 5 is emerging as a primary link between downtown Richmond, the East End, and Henrico County. As a consequence, traffic delays and safety concerns are growing for all modes of travel on Route 5.

To address mobility and access issues for commuters using the Route 5 corridor to reach employment destinations within the central business district, the City of Richmond, Henrico County, Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT), and the Richmond Regional Planning District Commission (RRPDC) have begun the process of developing a transportation plan for the corridor. The study is scheduled to be completed and construction for Phase 1 initiated in summer 2011.

Improving the transportation infrastructure of Route 5 has important long-term economic development consequences. It will provide greater mobility for workers improve mobility and access downtown Richmond, which in turn will enhance the development potential of the central business district. It will also improve the redevelopment potential of the Fulton Gas Works

1 CPM Division, Schedule of Upcoming Road Construction Projects, Updated 12/18/2009.


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site and will promote new mixed-use developments in East Richmond.

• Mayo Bridge Structural Analysis and Feasibility Study – The City is conducting a structural analysis and feasibility study on both the Mayo Bridge structures and the Manchester Canal Bridge structure to determine if the structures will be rehabilitated or replaced. The historic Mayo Bridge links downtown Richmond with the Manchester area south of the river. The current structure was built in 1913 is Richmond's oldest highway bridge across the James River. Rising just 30 feet above the water line, the Mayo Bridge is currently Richmond's only bridge subject to flooding. Large floodgates in Richmond's Flood wall protect the surrounding areas on each side during James River Flooding.

In addition to handling auto traffic, the study is analyzing what infrastructure improvements must be made to accommodate pedestrian and bike traffic. A rehabilitated bridge that provides access to autos, bikes, and pedestrians would enhance redevelopment opportunities in the Manchester area, which holds significant potential to attract new business investment in such sectors as professional services, creative and media services, and light industrial. Downtown residents would have improved pedestrian and biking access to employment destinations in Manchester and retail businesses on Hull Street.

• Downtown Traffic Direction Conversion – As part of its Downtown Master Plan, the City identified converting its one-way streets to two-way. It is hiring a consultant to analyze how the conversion can and should be implemented. One-way streets deter retail and commercial development by making destinations difficult to access. Making it easier to navigate through the central business district will help to unlock the commercial and retail potential of Downtown Richmond. In its FY2010-FY2014

Capital Improvement plan, the City has allocated $2.9 million for the first phase of the project.

Recreation and Tourism Investment in recreation and tourism infrastructure yields important economic development benefits. Such amenities attract both visitors and new residents to the city. Tourism is one of Richmond’s most important sectors and injects millions of new dollars into the city. Recreation infrastructure also makes Richmond more competitive for new talent, especially the coveted demographic of educated young professionals.

Richmond enjoys one of the best urban trails systems in the nation. The Richmond Riverfront Phase of the Virginia Capital Trail will be the crown jewel in the city’s trail system. Once completed, the Canal Walk in Richmond will be the end point for the 54-mile trail, connecting Richmond, Williamsburg, and Jamestown. The Richmond Riverfront phase will link the trail with the canal and the retail and residential areas located in historic Shockoe Bottom along the James River. The Bell Island Trail System is another project the City has identified for improvements. The City should continue supporting and seeking support for these projects as well as others that will contribute to Richmond’s quality of place.

Sources of Funding To fund these and other infrastructure projects, the CPM Division actively seeks funding from the state and federal government, as well as recommend expenditures of City resources. Annually, the capital improvement program provides the City of Richmond with transportation improvement projects funded through the following sources:

• Urban Federal Funds

• Urban State Funds

• RSTP - Regional Surface Transportation Program


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• CMAQ - Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality

• Hazard Elimination Program (Safety)

• Enhancement Grants

• Governor's Opportunity Fund

• FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants

• VDOT Revenue Sharing

• City of Richmond Capital Improvement Program

• Private Funds

SHORT- AND LONG-TERM RETENTION STRATEGIES AND ACTIONS Business retention and expansion (BRE) should be the heart of any economic development program. A solid BRE program will help the City of Richmond protect and even grow its existing base of employers. The recent high-profile losses of Wachovia Securities and Reynolds/Alcoa highlight the vulnerability Richmond faces in the current economic environment. The City may not have been able to change the outcome in either case, but situations will emerge where an active BRE program will preserve and even expand tax base and jobs in Richmond.

Existing businesses form the backbone of a thriving economy, but they are often overlooked in a community's enthusiasm to recruit new, headline-generating businesses. In the context of the private sector, a business retention program is like the adage that says you must attend to your existing customers first. If you don’t, you jeopardize your base. This is especially true in light of current economic conditions, which mean fewer recruitment prospects and more existing businesses in distress.

At its simplest, a BRE program helps the economic development organization arrive at a clear understanding of the businesses already in the community and helps keep tabs on changes and challenges area businesses face. The primary functions of a BRE program are threefold:

1. to ensure that at-risk businesses receive support, especially when that risk is the result of labor issues or other factors the community can influence in some way;

2. to expand and support growing businesses; and

3. to advocate for local businesses generally, by identifying their issues and needs.


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The Department of Economic and Community Development (DECD) address business retention and expansion through its participation in the Greater Richmond Business First program, the various incentive programs the City offers to existing businesses, and through the Office of Minority Business Development. DECD has recently committed to expanding its BRE resources and activities in an effort to stem the flight of employment and investment out of the city and to help revitalize distressed neighborhoods.

Strategies 1.1 Strengthen the City of Richmond’s participation in Business

First Richmond. The Business First program is a regional business visitation and survey initiative supporting existing businesses located in Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, and Hanover. During the 2009-2010 program year, Business First Greater Richmond reported the following activities and findings:

• interviewed 533 companies representing 21,242 existing jobs

• identified 132 companies planning to add a projected total of 1,388 new jobs

• identified 101 expanding businesses representing $136 million in new investment potential

The program also reported a total impact of 258 new jobs, 497 retained jobs, and $137 million in new private investment.

In the city of Richmond, 65 companies were interviewed representing 2,612 jobs. These interviews were conducted by a team consisting of professional staff and trained volunteers. As a result of the team’s efforts, $1.7 million in new investment potential was generated. DECD intends to bolster these figures by involving

top city officials in visits with large primary employers and by making a greater effort to market the program to local businesses.

Actions

• Highlight the Business First program on the DECD webpage. Currently, there is neither a reference nor a link to the Business First website.

• Work with the Greater Richmond Partnership, the Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce, and the surrounding counties to raise the profile of the program within the regional business community. Highlight specific cases of assistance local businesses have received as a result of participating in the visitation program.

• Work with the program partners to decrease the length of the survey instrument. (See specific recommendations in the Development Opportunities Analysis report, pages 34-36.)

• Continue plans to implement a tiered approach to business visitation, including the use of top city officials (i.e., the mayor, chief administrative officer, and deputy chief administrative officer) in visits with large primary employers in the city and having DECD staff develop industry expertise to focus on certain target sectors.

• Meet the City’s goal of visiting with 100 companies per program year.

• Quickly respond to requests for businesses assistance services. If the issue is not something city staff can assist with, direct referrals should be made to other organizations and resources in the area.

• Follow-up with participating businesses to gather performance measurement data for the program.


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• Maintain and expand the database of existing businesses in Richmond. As a component of the Business First program, the City is currently using Executive Pulse client relationship management (CRM) tool. Any data and information collected during interviews or during follow-up efforts must be entered into the database. The City and its Business First partners should also seek to expand the program database. Additional sources of publicly available business records include DBA filings, tax records, utility hookups, and ownership transfers.

1.2 Engage in additional activities to support existing businesses in Richmond. Beyond its participation in the Business First program, the DECD should pursue other basic business retention and expansion activities.

Actions

• Promote Existing Small Business Programs and Services. Work with the Richmond District Office of the SBA, the Metropolitan Business League, and other relevant organizations in the community to ensure that existing small business and entrepreneur services are promoted to local businesses.

• Improve capital availability. Access to capital is a critical factor in small business and entrepreneurial development. Indeed, Greater Richmond Business First participants reported a shortage of capital for moderate to high risk companies as a major challenge to doing business. DECD has existing incentive programs designed to provide financials loans to companies unable to obtain traditional bank financing, including the Neighborhoods in Bloom Revolving Loan Fund. Nevertheless, working with Richmond’s financial community and other economic development groups to continually improve access to capital should be a top priority of DECD. Examples could include the formation of an angel capital network, as well as encouraging new lending models in

conjunction with banks to meet the technology needs of businesses. As part of this work, contacts should be established with the angel and venture capital community regionally and nationally, as well as with existing small business finance organizations such as the Richmond Economic Development Corporation.

• Provide additional opportunities for local businesses to meet regularly with DECD and other city staff. This could be accomplished by holding quarterly business forums or industry roundtables. Forums could be organized around a specific topic of interest (such as planning code issues or transportation infrastructure) or could be used as a moderated discussion about general concerns. These meetings do not need to be elaborate. Local restaurants will often donate meeting space in return for the lunch or dinner traffic. The goal is simply to keep an open line of communication between employers and public officials.

Local and National Capital Network Organizations Dominion Resources GreenTech Incubator www.domgreentech.com

New Dominion Angels www.newdominionangels.com

Richmond Venture Forum http://ventureclub.com

Angel Capital Association www.angelcapitalassociation.org

Angelsoft www.angelsoft.net

Venture Capital Association www.cville-venture.org


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• Support business networking opportunities. In addition to the forums described above, networking opportunities can be a valuable part of a BRE program. Hosting a monthly luncheon or “after hours” event has been a mainstay of chambers and economic development organizations. Unlike the forums, these events should be solely designed to facilitate business-to-business contact. Rather than organizing new events, DECD should focus on supporting existing events organized by the GRCC and the GRP.

• DECD should provide ongoing evaluation and reporting by preparing an annual report to the community on progress. This effort could be tied to the Business First annual report and could be expanded to additional business retention and expansion efforts undertaken by the City of Richmond.

1.3 Continually improve the City’s building review and permitting process. The Bureau of Permits and Inspections is the City department responsible for reviewing and applications and construction documents for the construction, alterations, and improvements to all new and existing structures in Richmond. Other departments involved in reviewing building and construction permits include Zoning, Planning and Preservation, Land Use Administration, Architectural Review, Public Works, Public Utilities, Water Resources, and Code Enforcement.

These departments are working to make the City’s review and permitting process as fast and efficient as possible. Indeed, efforts such as fast-track permitting for small businesses and coordinated inspections has resulted in 67 percent of all permits issued within five days. Such efforts should be continued and expanded where possible

Actions

• Review Existing Regulations. DECD and other city staff should regularly review development regulations, ordinances, and approval processes to ensure that the City of Richmond is being responsive to the small business community. Small business owners and representatives of relevant groups, such as the Metropolitan Business League and the GRCC, should be part of this review.

• Expand the small business fast-track permitting process to include larger enterprises. Currently, businesses with no more than 15 employees or with projects involving less than $10,000 qualify for a fast-track permitting process that is designed to have projects reviewed and approved within 24 hours. Responsible departments are exploring the feasibility of expanding this process to include businesses with no more than 30 employees. City staff should continue these efforts and even look at ways to fast track larger projects.

• Explore the establishment of a “One-Stop Shop.” Many cities have benefited from a single location for development review, permitting, and licensing (from the fire marshal to the public works director). Instead of having various departments at various locations within a city, a single stop helps expedite development and reduces bureaucracy, creating a more business friendly environment. Within the City of Richmond, elements of permitting, zoning, and public works are located within one office location. The City should look at bringing representative of additional review agencies to the same location, including public utilities.

1.4 Have an intervention strategy. Develop a “rapid response” strategy for dealing with potential layoffs or plant closures. Under the Federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (WARN) of 1989, companies with 100 or more employees must


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notify local governments and state workforce organizations about facility closings or mass layoffs at least 60 days in advance of the event. However, at this point, it is frequently too late to do anything. Identify “at-risk” companies early-on and develop an aggressive intervention strategy. As part of this effort, the community should identify the tools available to help avert such actions or ameliorate their impact.

Actions

• Partner with the Virginia Dislocated Worker Unit and the Capital Region Workforce Center rapid response teams to provide assistance to workers facing dislocation.

• Cultivate relationships with site selectors, developers, and real estate brokers to ensure prompt reuse of a closed facility by a new tenant.


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SHORT-TERM ATTRACTION STRATEGIES AND ACTIONS The Great Recession of 2007-2009 marked the grimmest economic downturn the US has faced since the 1930s. Moreover, the national economic recovery has been slow and painful. Many sectors, especially manufacturing and construction, continue to struggle as demand remains low. Unemployment remains at the highest rate in 30 years. Even healthier industries such as knowledge-based sectors and professional services are putting off new hiring and capital investments. In the Richmond area, there are fewer opportunities to attract new employers and many existing employers continue facing hardships.

As a consequence, in the short term (0-15 months) DECD must focus its economic development efforts to the realities of current conditions, while positioning the community to capitalize on new opportunities. In addition to basic business retention and expansion efforts outlined above, DECD should explore opportunities to attract new investment and jobs from companies already operating locally or in the broader region. It must also carry out some basic activities to position the city for attracting new investment in the near term. These include closely coordinating marketing efforts with GRP, interacting with the regional commercial real estate community, and redesigning the DECD section of the City’s website.

Strategies 2.1 Pursue new investment from companies in the Richmond

region and in Northern Virginia seeking to consolidate facilities. One of the consequences of the Great Recession and its aftermath is the effort by private employers to preserve cash and profits by cutting costs – meaning fewer workers and fewer facilities. Consequently, many companies are moving to consolidate operations into fewer sites, either existing or new.

Richmond should look for business expansion opportunities among current employers seeking to merge operations into an existing facility. The city’s location relative to Northern Virginia should also be leveraged in order to attract new investment. Companies based or operating in the Washington DC metro area, especially those seeking new sites to house operations of multiple facilities, are ideal targets.

Actions

• Visit with existing businesses in Richmond that operate facilities outside of the city and determine whether consolidation is a possibility and offer to assist in relocating outside operations to Richmond. This activity should be an ongoing function of the Business First visitation program.

• Monitor Richmond and Washington DC area news outlets for reports of consolidation.

• Conduct economic and business research to determine which companies are expanding and contracting in terms of employment and facilities, where satellite facilities are, and how their supply chains are structured.

• Build awareness among the corporate base regionally and in Northern Virginia.

− Identify key regional publications regionally and in Northern Virginia and send press releases on recent business successes in Richmond.

− Call on executives of Washington DC-based companies to present the benefits of Richmond as a location for future expansion or for consolidation of facilities/operations.


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− Send targeted mailings touting Richmond as a destination for consolidated operations.

− Engage new partners for lead referral. Specific candidates include local and regional construction firms, real estate brokers, banks and service firms (legal and accounting), regional industry associations, and area colleges and universities.

2.2 Interact and network with regional commercial real estate and site selection community. Richmond’s commercial office market is vital to the city’s economic well being. Consequently, an important function of DECD’s economic development program will be persistent communication and networking with the commercial real estate community in the Richmond region. Brokers, leasing agents, site location consultants, and developers are a primary source for new business leads and prospects. They also offer critical intelligence on trends within the region as well as feedback on Richmond’s competitive position in the marketplace.

Actions

• At least one designated staff person should regularly attend commercial real estate functions in the region.

• Build and maintain a database of developers, brokers, and site consultants in the region.

• Maintain and update information typically of interest to commercial and industrial developers on the DECD website.

• Call on individual brokers, agents, consultants, and developers to establish/maintain relationships and develop leads.

• Host tours and events featuring specific assets, such as available land and buildings or new projects.

• Offer assistance to aggressively market developers’ and land owners’ properties and buildings to future tenants.

• Develop and distribute a quarterly e-newsletter to local businesses, regional public officials, site selectors, real estate developers, investment prospects, and other key stakeholders. In addition to communicating achievements and successes in Richmond, each issue should highlight a different opportunity in the city.

2.3 Ensure that the Greater Richmond Partnership is aggressively marketing and promoting existing sites in Richmond as part of its business recruitment efforts. GRP is the lead economic development marketing organization for the Greater Richmond region. To a large extent, the City of Richmond relies on GRP to actively market and promote the city as a location for new business investment and employment. Richmond is at a competitive disadvantage relative to the surrounding counties in terms of availability and costs of Greenfield sites. Nevertheless, DECD must work with GRP to ensure that available development sites in Richmond are being aggressively marketed by GRP.

Actions

• City officials should meet with GRP leadership and staff to communicate the City’s concerns and interests regarding new business investment in Richmond.

• DECD should closely coordinate with GRP staff on business recruitment and marketing activities. DECD should also continually monitor GRP’s online property database to ensure all available city properties are included and current.

2.4 Redesign the DECD section of the City’s website. One of the most vital marketing tools an economic development organization should feature is a professionally designed website. The current


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DECD website lacks many of the functions and tools considered standard for basic site selection requirements, including a downloadable community profile and a GIS-linked database of available properties. The site also lacks the style and design elements that project Richmond or DECD in a top quality manner. A redesigned DECD website should include the following basic components:

− A consolidated community profile in a printable format. The DECD site currently provides separate pages offering information on topics such as education, history, neighborhoods, shopping, and transportation. These sections should be combined into a single document so that site consultants do not have to navigate through several pages to print basic information.

In addition, the profile should contain information on area demographics (population, households, age profile, race/ethnicity profile, socio-economics, educational attainment). Services such as DemographicsNow, Claritas, and ESRI are reputable data sources. These companies provide community profiles that are updated each year and include 5-year projections. The demographic profile should be made available with an option to export to a spreadsheet program.

− Business climate. A section of the profile should contain information on Richmond’s workforce, major employers, target industry profiles, tax rates, utility providers and rates (if available), transportation access, and available incentives.

− Available sites. A section of the site should feature properties that are available in the city. It should be current and searchable by type of space, price, and square footage.

Ideally, the property database would be linked to the City’s GIS capabilities.

Actions

• DECD should organize an internal team to oversee the development of a new department website and coordinate with the City’s information technology department.

• Determine if the site should be designed and built internally by city staff or by an outside design consultant. If a web design firm is engaged, upfront design and programming costs would range from $15,000 to $25,000, depending on the number of tools incorporated. At a minimum, an outside design professional with economic development experience should be consulted regarding specific design, lay-out, and tools.


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LONG-TERM PROGRAMS, TOOLS, AND ACTIONS The U.S. manufacturing industry continues a transformation that has profound effects on the practice of economic development. It is forcing economic developers to rethink the meaning of a primary job, how to measure economic impact, and how to design incentives. This is, in large part, because manufacturing employment continues to decline. Most American communities have come to accept that it is no longer feasible to build a successful economic strategy based solely on manufacturing jobs. In the Richmond region, this shift in strategy is painfully reinforced by the closures of manufacturing facilities by Reynolds/Alcoa, Pfizer Manufacturing, and Qimonda.

For this reason, the recommended strategies for long-term positioning consider the full complement of economic activities — ranging from

professional services to creative services to life sciences — as well as the physical space (business parks, office space, etc.) and financial incentive tools to support those activities. Understanding the role of innovation, the potential of entrepreneurship, and the importance of professional services are also important components of a progressive economic development plan.

Strategies 3.1 Continue diversifying the city’s economic base by pursuing a

target industry strategy emphasizing knowledge-based industries. The primary purpose of traditional economic development marketing is to generate interest from companies with expansion or relocation plans. The Greater Richmond Partnership is the region’s principal economic development marketing organization. DECD supports GRP’s marketing and recruitment efforts by contributing an annual funding allocation to the partnership and by jointly participating in specific activities. The city is generally well served GRP’s marketing program and should continue its support. However, DECD should also take a more active role in marketing its development opportunities and generating new investment leads. This includes pursuing the target industries described in the Target Industry section of the CEDS and listed in the box on the following page.

Manufacturing as a Percent of Total Jobs

Source: Moody’s Analytics

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

History Forecast


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Actions

• Establish a prospect management system. Once a prospective company expresses interest in Richmond, it should be entered into a formal prospect management system. DECD is currently implementing Executive Pulse as its prospect management system. Use of such a system will help set the prospect’s expectations and allow the economic development staff to track the status of future deals quickly and easily. The following work steps address this task:

− Process. The first step is formalizing the process by which prospects can indicate interest, receive information packets, visit Richmond, and apply for relocation assistance. This documentation should cover the prospect lifecycle – from lead generation through prospect evaluation to awarding of relocation assistance.

− Intake questionnaire. Post an electronic form on the DECD web page that prospects can use to request an information packet, set up a visit and tour, and indicate interest in locating in Richmond. This questionnaire can also collect information on the prospect that the organization can use to tailor its response.

− Response. Create a standard information packet that is provided to prospects. Adapt pieces such as suitable sites and maps as well as workforce availability to respond specifically to the needs of the prospect. Arrange a visit for the prospect to tour Richmond and view its primary assets.

Recommended Target Industries To support DECD’s economic development recruitment efforts, TIP identified target business and industry sectors. To narrow the initial list of potential target industries, TIP began with the 10 sectors the Greater Richmond Partnership is pursuing for the broader region. The goal is identify which of the 10 are most appropriate for recruiting and locating in the city of Richmond. In addition, TIP proposes two other industries - retail and professional services - be considered in the analysis.

We chose potential targets using a combination of quantitative, qualitative, and strategic approaches. The recommended industries capitalize on existing and emerging assets in the city, the metro area, and the corridor between Richmond and Washington DC. These industries were also chosen in light of the current economic environment and the investment priorities of the federal government. Below are the recommended target industries for the city, listed in priority order.

Priority target industries for the City of Richmond • Corporate headquarters

• Professional services, especially small and medium sized enterprises

• Creative & knowledge-based services, a key subset of professional services

• Information & communication technologies, especially security technologies

• Finance & insurance

• Life sciences

• R&D centers

• Retail food stores, especially fresh produce markets in underserved neighborhoods

Business retention as needed, but recruiting will be more competitive in suburbs • Advanced manufacturing

• Clean tech

• Food processing

• Logistics


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• Build awareness among decision-makers in target industries.

− Develop and maintain a database of companies in each target industry. DECD should determine if GRP’s target industry database is sufficient or if other proprietary databases should be purchased to supplement.

− Compile and maintain resource information for each target industry sector. This would include identifying associations for each industry sector as well as following industry trends by monitoring trade publications or purchasing industry data and reports from private sources.

− Join and become active in trade or industry associations for the priority target sectors. Economic development staff should research appropriate organizations and become active participants in events and meetings, including sponsorships and advertising. Regional and statewide organizations should be pursued first to minimize costs.

− Organize and train DECD business development staff to become an effective “sales force” for Richmond. This may include assigning specific target industries or geographic markets to staff members. Staff development should also include internal or external training sales and business development skills, including such topics as consultative sales, client relationship management, prospecting, lead management, and proposal development.

− DECD should conduct eight call trips/marketing missions per year (two each quarter) to regions where target industry concentration is highest. These trips can be conducted separately or in conjunction with the trade shows or other events organized by GRP.

− As resources allow, implement a direct mail and postcard campaign to target sector companies. The campaign should highlight Richmond’s competitive advantages and a highly visible Web address that directs prospects to a redesigned DECD website.

− Include Richmond businesses in business development efforts. This could include prospect visits, marketing missions, and prospect hosting activities. The most effective advocates for doing business in Richmond are the city’s existing businesses.

− DECD should track the success of the target industry campaign using its prospect management system.

3.2 Support the development of the Virginia Life Sciences and Commercialization Center (VLSCC). The next planned expansion of the Virginia Biotech Park is Biotech Ten. As envisioned, Biotech Ten will house a Virginia Life Sciences Commercialization Center (VLSCC) and a Virginia Biosciences Education and Visitors Center (VBEVC). Of the development opportunities assessed for the potential of receiving EDA investment assistance, TIP recommends the development of the VLSCC within Biotech Ten be given the highest short-term priority for the following reasons:

• It is the most well-defined of the potential development opportunities.

• With sufficient funding, the construction of Biotech Ten could be completed in two years.

• Providing flexible space to maturing firms in the life sciences field matches with EDA investment priorities and national strategic priorities.


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• The commercialization center will further the park’s mission of attracting new jobs and investment to Richmond.

• The commercialization center increases the likelihood of retaining life sciences intellectual property and technology in Richmond.

At present, the Virginia Biotechnology Research Park is proceeding with plans to develop Biotech Ten. The park is actively seeking to engage an architectural firm to design the site and building. Private fundraising efforts are underway as well as a feasibility study for naming rights to the visitors and education center.

Actions

• The City of Richmond should assist in the project’s development by working with the park on approving requested zoning changes to the parcel. This step should occur in the 4th quarter of 2010.

• City leadership and DECD staff should begin meeting with representative of the Biotech Park and VCU regarding the joint pursuit of an EDA investment grant to fund all or a portion of the commercialization center. This should also occur in the 4th quarter of 2010.

• The City should work with the Biotech Park in applying for an EDA investment grant to fund all or part of the VLSCC. The application should be made as early as the 4th quarter of 2010.

• The City should support the project by assisting with zoning, permitting, and infrastructure.

• Richmond Public Schools should work with the park to establish formal visitation and experiential learning programs at the Virginia Biotechnology Education and Visitors Center.

• To support business and job creation at the Biotech Park and throughout Richmond, the City and its partners should consider establishing a revolving loan fund (RLF) focused on small and medium-sized companies in the life sciences field. One option for seeding a Richmond life sciences RLF is to pursue an EDA grant in conjunction with an application for VLSCC investment assistance. Additionally, private sources of seed capital could be sought, particularly from the region’s large healthcare, life sciences, and advanced manufacturing employers.

3.3 Redevelop the Armstrong High School site into a new state-of-the-art skills development and education center. TIP proposes the concept of replacing the existing facilities with a new state-of-the-art, LEED certified facility to house a skills development and education center focusing on green technologies, healthcare, and other emerging technology fields. Such a project would also merit applying for seeking EDA investment assistance for the following reasons:

• While the idea is only conceptual, it does involve an existing site the City controls. There is no need for a lengthy process of property acquisition and assembly.

• A new state-of-the-art skills development and education center would have a substantial potential impact on the city.

• EDA is more likely to award investment assistance to projects involving new construction versus rehabilitation.

• A new facility could incorporate green building technologies and achieve Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certification, making it even more attractive for federal support.


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• A state-of-the-art facility has the potential to serve as catalyst project for the East End and Nine Mile Road Corridor.

• Because the facility would benefit employers in the region, private participation and support may be feasible.

• Relocating the existing Richmond Technical Center to the site would obviate the need for costly remodeling and upgrades to the ageing structure.

Actions

• A feasibility study should be conducted to refine the concept and demonstrate the legal, physical, environmental, programmatic, and financial feasibility of the project.

• Work with Richmond Public Schools to determine the cost and programmatic impacts of relocating the Richmond Technical Center.

• As stated in the East End Transformation Plan, a new transportation connection from the Armstrong to Nine Mile Road should be evaluated.

• Approach Bon Secours, J. Sargeant Reynolds, and other entities about their potential interest in participating in the project.

• Explore other sources of federal and state funding. Since the projects would involve workforce development and education, the US Department of Labor and the US Department of Education are potential sources of planning or program funds. Likewise, EDA brownfield grants could be sought if the site requires environmental remediation.

• Because any Armstrong redevelopment will require some front-end work to refine the concept, conduct the necessary feasibility analysis, and win support from regional partners, the City should consider pursuing EDA investment assistance in 2-3 years.

3.4 Commit to a long-term (20-year) strategy for redeveloping an area within the city for light industrial, commercial, information technology, and R&D activities. In 2001-2002, the City of Richmond engaged TIP to assist in developing a long-term economic development strategic plan. A central finding of that plan was the lack of suitable sites in Richmond to accommodate major new developments. To address this need, the consulting team recommended a “Richmond Redevelopment Initiative” involving the identification and assembly of up to 200 acres for a new tech/industrial park or corridor. Eight years later, Richmond still lacks the shovel-ready sites and buildings necessary to compete with the surrounding counties for new large- and medium-sized investment prospects.

Therefore, TIP once again recommends the City and its economic development partners pursue a long-term “Richmond Redevelopment Initiative” to position the city for attracting new employment opportunities and private investment. This initiative should become a primary focus for DECD. The primary zoning of the land will be for light industrial, R&D, information technology, and commercial uses. The land should form a contiguous park or corridor suitable for medium and large-size companies to locate operations. As an element of this corridor, the City should ensure direct links to the Biotech Park and Advantech to meet the facility needs of expanding entrepreneurial companies.

The best opportunities for such a redevelopment initiative lie south of the James River, especially in the Manchester area and along Commerce Road. The area benefits from rail access; proximity to


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I-95, the Port of Richmond, and the airport; existing infrastructure; and land that could be made available for development. When this concept was first conceived, it was suggested that up to 200 acres could feasibly be assembled for a new tech/industrial park or corridor.

DECD will be primarily responsible for coordinating the redevelopment initiative. However, due to its current organizational funding capacity, DECD will be hard pressed to oversee a major redevelopment initiative in Richmond. To be successful, the City of Richmond will have to commit additional resources and funding mechanisms to the initiative. This includes the hiring of dedicated full-time staff to manage the project’s feasibility, planning, fundraising, assembly, development, and marketing efforts. To assist DECD with this ambitious initiative, TIP recommends the City form a redevelopment advisory board. While not official, such an entity would provide essential private sector real estate market guidance to the initiative. Over time, as the scale of the initiative expands, the City should consider establishing a formal redevelopment commission to lead and administer the project.

Beyond commercial and industrial development, the redevelopment project may encompass residential, retail, and open space development. These elements should occur in later stages, as the initial focus should be on creating opportunities for investment and job creation in Richmond by knowledge-based industries.

Technology-related business parks represent a new interpretation of the old industrial park concept. Like industrial parks, technology-related parks vary tremendously in size, tenant mix, style, and legal/organizational structure. Although technology parks are often treated as a uniform category, a distinction should be made between research parks, which focus on new products or

processes, and technology parks that target a specific set of existing industries. This recommendation involves the latter classification. While a research park south of the river is a longer-term possibility, it would require a tremendous amount of investment and significant collaboration with university or government research centers. In the initial phase, this approach would be too ambitious.

Actions

• Phase I: assessment and planning. At this stage, DECD must map out a plan for how it will administer the initiative, where it will be focused, and what tools it will have at its disposal. It must also set out a specific set of goals it intends to achieve.

1. Define the target area – This is the first step to be undertaken by DECD. The area should be defined as broadly as reasonable, but in general should be identified as the area within the city that is suitable for significant redevelopment. An initial target area for industrial and commercial development should be designated.

2. Develop a master plan – Once the target area(s) have been defined, a master plan should be created that addresses the overall build-out strategy. Beyond industrial and commercial development, the plan should address retail, residential, open space, parks, and transportation development in the area.

3. Establish specific goals for the redevelopment initiative – DECD should establish a set of measurable economic development goals for the initiative with target dates for completion. These goals should include:


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− Expansion of tax base – the number of properties have been brought back onto the city tax rolls.

− Employment – the number of jobs have been created that pay above the median wage in the city.

− Investment – the dollar amount of new public and private investment in the target area.

− Diversification – the proportion of employment that has been gained in non-public and/or low-wage retail industries.

− Exports – The increase in the dollar amount of goods being produced or enhanced in Richmond and then exported out of the region.

− Minority–Owned business targets.

4. Land and building inventory – The preliminary inventory should consist of vacant property, empty buildings, or otherwise underutilized buildings and properties.

5. Conditions survey – An inventory of the physical infrastructure must be performed. The survey should include water, sewer, gas, electric, flood plain, fire and safety codes, and telecommunications capacity.

6. Suitability assessment – An analysis of the inventoried properties to decide the best use of each.

7. Planning and zoning review – An analysis of the current zoning codes and restrictions in the targeted area.

8. Enterprise zone and other special designations – Review of the overlays and designations that affect the target area.

These special districts or zones may provide benefits or advantages to certain types of development.

9. Approval of rights of way, appropriate eminent domain, and condemnation review – This goal sets out a strategy for property acquisition. This approach helps bring the properties into conformity with the development plan, and includes the methods for acquisition and the process for public input.

10. Inventory of financial tools – A non-exhaustive list would include such tools as EDA assistance and other federal grants, bonding authority, private donations (including foundations), tax increment financing, development agreements (with private developers), city allocations, and city infrastructure investment.

• Phase II: development. Once the parameters of the redevelopment initiative and an inventory of the properties and tools have been established, the actual development portion of the strategy can begin.

1. The City should acquire a showcase building(s) in the target area. The building (or buildings) can serve as an accelerator for knowledge-based development in the target area. The property should ideally include such amenities as:

− Flexible interior space;

− IT infrastructure (both for external broadband capacity and internal “smart building” features);

− Easy transportation access; and

− Amenities for workers.


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2. Marketing plan – DECD should design a marketing plan to promote the showcase building(s) and other vacant properties in the target area to companies in the target industries. The marketing plan should utilize DECD, the GRP, Venture Richmond, and other partner organizations in the city. It should emphasize specific recruitment of target industries.

Industries and businesses targeted for location in the corridor/park should be knowledge-based industries that utilize technology and information in core production, assembly, processing, research, and design activities.

• Phase III: This phase includes steps that should be taken to address development beyond the showcase properties and laying the foundation for long-term development of Richmond’s south side.

1. Review of land acquisition approach – The City should review its land acquisition strategy to assess the best method for future property development. As it begins assessing additional properties, the City must decide on a long-term approach for developing properties. Two commonly used approaches include:

− Master developer strategy – The City leases or sells land to the private developer and allows that party to develop the land according to pre-approved guidelines. In return, the developer is allowed to realize the long-term revenue streams.

− Cooperative City-developer acquisition – A developer agrees to make an investment in a property in return for improvements to the existing physical infrastructure by the City.

3.5 Establish a Technology Zone that is linked to the Richmond Redevelopment Initiative. The City of Richmond does not currently offer a wide variety of incentives to new businesses locating in the city, especially companies in knowledge-based industries. Currently, the only significant business incentive program in the city is tied to the Enterprise Zone Incentive Loan Program. New incentives must be developed that attract knowledge-based industries to the city. Moreover, such incentives must be linked to the redevelopment project.

The Commonwealth of Virginia authorizes cities, counties, and towns, to establish one or more technology zones to attract targeted industries. Qualified businesses locating in Virginia Technology Zones may receive local permit and user fee waivers, local tax incentives, special zoning treatment, or exemption from ordinances. Once established, these zones are administered by the governing locality. Currently, there are 24 Technology Zones in Virginia, but none are located in Richmond.

The City of Richmond should capitalize on this opportunity and establish a Richmond Technology Zone. In order to take advantage of all the permitting, zoning, and ordinance incentives, the City of Richmond should administer the program through the DECD and in direct conjunction with the proposed Richmond Redevelopment Commission.

Actions

• DECD director should designate a staff member to serve as point person on this initiative. The designee should contact Commonwealth regarding guidelines and requirements for establishing a zone. The designee should also contact administrators of other zones in Virginia to gather more background information.


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• The designee should brief the CAO and City Council on the technology zone law and requirements.

• Include technology zone in comprehensive plan for Richmond Redevelopment Zone.

• City legal staff should draft an ordinance to establish a Richmond Technology Zone in conjunction with the redevelopment plan.

• The City Council should adopt the ordinance.

• The CAO designates an administrator of the zone.

3.6 Consider the use of other incentive tools. The City should consider using other development related tools to encourage investment in new or existing buildings/sites in targeted redevelopment areas.

• Tax Increment Finance (TIF) districts: TIF districts allow taxing entities to repay the costs of improvements to a designated reinvestment zone with the future tax revenues generated by increasing property values. The tax increment is derived from the difference in appraised value between the year in which the reinvestment zone is established (base year) and each year the reinvestment zone is in existence.

• Development fee rebates: Richmond may consider rebating a portion or the entire amount of all city fees charged in the regulation of land development.

• Energy efficiency retrofit grants: An emerging tool for promoting new investment and reinvestment in commercial and industrial properties is public assistance for energy efficiency retrofits. Such measures are increasingly welcomed by the private sector as they help to reduce energy costs, improve the property market values, and

support individual company efforts to become “greener” and more environmentally conscious. A new financing tool allowing local governments to assist with private energy efficiency retrofits is a Preferred Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) bond. As described in the text box below, PACE bonds allows property owners to borrow money from municipalities to make energy improvements and the loans are repaid over a number of years via special tax assessments on the property. As an additional incentive to promote energy efficiency and conservation, the City could give special consideration to all LEED certified projects for various tax and infrastructure cost participation incentives.

• To support business and job creation at the Biotech Park and throughout Richmond, the City and its partners should consider establishing a revolving loan fund (RLF) focused on

Property Assessed Clean Energy “PACE” Bonds The proceeds of a Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) bond are provided to commercial and residential property owners in the form of a loan to finance energy retrofits (efficiency measures and small renewable energy systems). The loans are then repaid by the property owner over 20 years via an annual assessment on their property tax bill.

PACE bonds can be issued by municipal financing districts or finance companies and the proceeds can be typically used to retrofit both commercial and residential properties.

Virginia is one of several states that have passed legislation enabling communities to create PACE Energy Districts. Nationally, local PACE programs have been established in Texas, California, Illinois, Colorado, Maryland, New York, and others.

pacenow.org

rael.berkeley.edu/financing


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small and medium-sized companies in the life sciences field. Access to capital is one of the greatest challenges fast-growing small businesses face, especially in the current economic environment. One option for seeding a Richmond life sciences RLF is to pursue an EDA grant in conjunction with an application for VLSCC investment assistance. Additionally, private sources of seed capital could be sought, particularly from the region’s large healthcare, life sciences, and advanced manufacturing employers.

3.7 Promote entrepreneurship and small business development. DECD and its regional partners should continue to emphasize the fostering small business development and growth-oriented entrepreneurship. Fostering entrepreneurship is important for multiple reasons. In general, small businesses are responsible for a significant portion of jobs created. Local businesses that have matured in a community often have much stronger ties to the region and require less effort to retain. Entrepreneurial enterprises add to those elements: they contribute to economic vitality through their creativity and innovation. In other words, they create a center of gravity for talent and capital. The unique quality of entrepreneurial ventures rests on the following understanding:

• Export Oriented: unlike many small businesses, entrepreneurial companies seek markets beyond the immediate region.

• Capital Intensive: since these companies are on a growth trajectory, they require substantial operating and expansion investment.

• Technology Driven: even non-technology companies require a technology infrastructure (broadband, e-commerce transaction capability, highly skilled workforce).

• Professional Service Dependent: since most entrepreneurs have some form of intellectual property (including patents, specialized equipment or processes), they need easy access to legal, financial, and marketing services.

While small business development centers are beneficial to the typical locally-oriented start-up, they are not designed to assist the specialized needs of entrepreneurs. The facilities, networks, and support they need fall into a different category. As a consequence, this recommendation speaks to the assistance DECD and its partners should provide in growing an entrepreneurial cluster in Richmond.

Actions

• Assess the existing entrepreneurial programs and services available in the Richmond region. Work with representatives of the Richmond District Small Business Administration, Advantech, the Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce, J. Sargeant Reynolds Community College, the VCU School of Business, the Biotech Park, and other organizations to formally assess the needs of area entrepreneurs and identify gaps in services and support that are not being provided.

• Work with partners to enhance services for entrepreneurs to augment the city’s entrepreneurial assets.

− Support the establishment of additional angel investor networks such as the New Dominion Angels to aid entrepreneurs in raising seed capital by providing opportunities for entrepreneurs to present business plans and financing needs to an audience of local investors.

− Encourage Richmond District SBA or another organization to offer entrepreneurship training courses such as


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FastTrac or NxLeveL that provide intensive training for potential entrepreneurs.

− Support the creation of youth entrepreneurship education programs in Richmond Public Schools.

− Encourage the efforts of the Richmond Venture Forum and other mentor networks to provide “green” entrepreneurs with advice and counseling from experienced entrepreneurs.

• Celebrate and support entrepreneurship in the region. DECD and its partners should engage in a public relations campaign profiling area entrepreneurs (“success stories”) – current and past – and informing residents of entrepreneurial activity and initiatives. This will help foster an entrepreneurial spirit and a community that values entrepreneurship.

3.8 Bring the business, workforce training, and education communities closer together. Many people interviewed as part of this process suggested there is an opportunity for closer communication and interaction between Richmond businesses, workforce training providers, and educators. Facilitating greater communication and coordination between the private sector and the education sector will help Richmond develop, attract, and retain its talent base.

Actions

• Establish a Richmond Business and Education Task Force. The primary purpose of the task force should be to initiate an ongoing mechanism for business, education, and workforce training leaders to discuss mutual challenges and generate ideas and solutions. More specifically, the task force should engage the private sector in local educational issues, identify new

opportunities for business/school partnerships, provide a forum to match training needs with programs, and provide resources for improving student performance and educational attainment.

− The task force should be composed of representatives of regional educational institutions (K-12 and post-secondary), businesses (small, medium, and large), economic development, and workforce development.

− A well-known and respected business or education leader should be identified by the core team to chair the task force.

− The chair should take the lead in recruiting and assembling the members of the task force.

− The task force may consider forming subcommittees to study and report on specific issues.

• Align economic development and area education programs – K-12, vocational, adult, and post-secondary. DECD and GRP should work with regional higher education institutions and

Best Practice: HIRE The HIRE (Higher Income Requires Education) Education Forum is a regional educational alliance consisting of 22 post-secondary educational institutions in the greater Louisville, KY region. HIRE is guided by a 20-member advisory council, which consists of employer representatives focused on higher education in the community. HIRE’s mission is to provide a forum for regional higher education institutions to collectively align post-secondary activities and programs with regional economic development challenges. As a consequence, HIRE strives to form the foundation of a regionally responsive education and workforce development system.

www.greaterlouisville.com/HIRE


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Richmond Public Schools to align vocational education and professional certification programs with DECD and GRP target industry recruitment efforts.

− Expand internship/apprenticeship programs to aid in the transfer of vocational students to entry-level positions among existing industrial employers and/or targeted industries.

− Enhance and expand partnerships between regional school districts and local higher education institutions in developing career and technical training programs in targeted industries.

• Engage educators more directly in economic development. Access to higher education opportunities is one of Richmond’s key competitive strengths in attracting new investment and talent. To fully leverage this asset, DECD and GRP should explore ways to increase the direct involvement of educational institutions in economic development activities.

− Engage in cooperative marketing with area post-secondary institutions. DECD, GRP, and area higher education institutions should establish a coordinated marketing message highlighting the area’s post-secondary education assets.

− DECD and GRP should incorporate information regarding specific academic and training programs at VCU, Richmond College, Virginia Union, J. Sargeant Reynolds Community College, and John Tyler Community College in their economic development marketing materials. Training and academic programs that support regional economic development goals should be highlighted.

− Post-secondary institutions should provide updated community information, data, and events on their websites and in their student recruitment materials.

− Encourage joint participation. The City of Richmond and education leaders should promote cross-representation on relevant boards and commissions. DECD staff should engage with local higher education faculty and staff on a regular basis.

3.9 Initiate a regional advertising and marketing program that targets the Greater Richmond Area and Northern Virginia. One of the most important targets of any marketing effort should be the people and businesses already in the region. They are the ones who have already made an investment in the area and on a daily basis represent Richmond nationally and internationally. Making sure that existing residents and local business leaders have a positive image of their community is critical to the success of any external campaign, as these are the people who can best tell the Richmond story to the outside world.

Actions

• Develop and implement a regional marketing effort. This is designed to promote a positive image of the city of Richmond among residents and build awareness regarding current economic and community development initiatives. This effort should promote a positive image of the city not only to local residents, but those living throughout the wider Richmond-Washington DC corridor.

− The program may utilize media relations, the Internet, social media, newspapers, billboard, radio, and magazine advertising in the Richmond area and in Northern Virginia.


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− DECD and its partners should work with the local media, including both print and broadcast media, to promote positive stories about the city. Something as simple as highlighting local business achievements or including human interest stories can help create a positive image of the community for local residents.

− Develop a “speakers bureau” of professionals that are available to speak at community meetings and promote local initiatives.

− The regional campaign should emphasize Richmond’s transportation assets, housing stock, urban quality of life, and historical charm.

• Influence the image of Richmond portrayed on the web.

− Assume ownership of Richmond’s entry on Wikipedia. Regularly update the information and data with references. Wikipedia is fast becoming the first resource individuals consult for information on communities and regions.

− Establish a new Facebook page for DECD. Join other Richmond-related Facebook groups to influence content.

− Create a Twitter account to update and inform regional residents and businesses of new announcements, upcoming events, and salient issues.

− Create a blog section on a redesigned DECD website to provide content and connect to other sites.

− Coordinate social media strategies with other organizations in the city such as the Venture Richmond and the CVB.


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IMPLEMENTATION MATRIX The following guide combines all the goals, strategies, and actions in a single table. It also includes potential partners and allies as well as a recommended time horizon for implementation. The purpose of the implementation matrix is to provide a graphic representation when the actions should realistically be implemented and the most appropriate organizations to carry them out.

STRATEGY / ACTION ITEMS TIMELINE

Description Implementing Organization(s)

Other Potential Funding Sources

1-6 Months

7-24 Months

Year 3

Years 4 & 5 On-going

DECD – Department of Economic & Community Development; GRP – Greater Richmond Partnership; GRCC – Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce; SBA – Small Business Administration (Richmond Office); MBL – Metropolitan Business League; VDWU – Virginia Dislocated Worker Unit; CRWC – Capital Region Workforce Center; VBRP – Virginia Biotechnology Research Park; RRC – Richmond Redevelopment Commission (recommended organization); VR – Venture Richmond; VCU – Virginia Commonwealth University; JSRCC – J., Sargeant Reynolds Community College; VUU – Virginia Union University; UR – University of Richmond

SHORT- AND LONG-TERM RETENTION STRATEGIES AND ACTIONS

1.1 Strengthen the City of Richmond’s participation in Business First Richmond.

Highlight the Business First program on the DECD webpage. DECD Raise the profile of Business First within the regional business community.

DECD, GRP, GRCC

Decrease the length of the survey instrument. DECD & Business First partners

Continue plans to implement a tiered approach to business visitation. DECD & City administration

Meet the goal of visiting with 100 companies per program year. DECD & City administration

Quickly respond to requests for businesses assistance services. DECD

Maintain and expand the database of existing businesses in Richmond. DECD & Business First partners


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1-6 Months

7-24 Months

Year 3



1.2 Engage in additional activities to support existing businesses in Richmond.

Promote Existing Small Business Programs and Services. SBA, MBL

Improve capital availability. DECD, investor networks, lending institutions

Private capital

Provide additional opportunities for local businesses to meet regularly with DECD and other city staff. DECD

Support business networking opportunities. DECD, other business orgs

Provide ongoing evaluation and reporting by preparing an annual report to the community on progress. DECD

1.3 Continually improve the City’s building review and permitting process.

Review Existing Regulations. city staff, other business orgs

Expand the small business fast-track permitting process to include larger enterprises. city staff

Explore the establishment of a “One-Stop Shop.” city staff

1.4 Have an intervention strategy.

Provide assistance to workers facing dislocation. VDWU, CRWC Cultivate relationships with site selectors, developers, and real estate brokers to ensure prompt reuse of a closed facility by a new tenant. DECD


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1-6 Months

7-24 Months

Year 3



SHORT-TERM ATTRACTION STRATEGIES AND ACTIONS

2.1 Pursue new investment from companies in the Richmond region and in Northern Virginia seeking to consolidate facilities.

Visit with existing businesses in Richmond that operate facilities outside of the city and determine whether consolidation is a possibility and offer to assist in relocating outside operations to Richmond.

DECD

Monitor Richmond and Washington DC area news outlets for reports of consolidation. DECD

Conduct economic and business research to determine which companies are expanding and contracting in terms of employment and facilities, where satellite facilities are, and how their supply chains are structured.

DECD

Identify key regional publications regionally and in Northern Virginia and send press releases on recent business successes in Richmond. DECD

Call on executives of Washington DC-based companies to present the benefits of Richmond as a location for future expansion or for consolidation of facilities/operations.

DECD

Send targeted mailings touting Richmond as a destination for consolidated operations. DECD

Engage new partners for lead referral. DECD

2.2 Interact and network with regional commercial real estate and site selection community.

At least one designated staff person should regularly attend commercial real estate functions in the region. DECD

Build and maintain a database of developers, brokers, and site consultants in the region. DECD


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1-6 Months

7-24 Months

Year 3


DECD – Department of Economic & Community Development; GRP – Greater Richmond Partnership; GRCC – Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce; SBA – Small Business Administration (Richmond Office); MBL – Metropolitan Business League; VDWU – Virginia Dislocated Worker Unit; CRWC – Capital Region Workforce Center; VBRP – Virginia Biotechnology Research Park; RRC – Richmond Redevelopment Commission (recommended organization); VR – Venture Richmond; VCU – Virginia Commonwealth University; JSRCC – J., Sargeant Reynolds Community College; VUU – Virginia Union University; UR – University of Richmond Maintain and update information typically of interest to commercial and industrial developers on the DECD website. DECD

Call on individual brokers, agents, consultants, and developers to establish/maintain relationships and develop leads. DECD

Host tours and events featuring specific assets, such as available land and buildings or new projects. DECD Property owners

Offer assistance to aggressively market developers’ and land owners’ properties and buildings to future tenants. DECD

Develop and distribute a quarterly e-newsletter. DECD

2.3 Ensure that the Greater Richmond Partnership is aggressively marketing and promoting existing sites in Richmond as part of its business recruitment efforts.

Meet with GRP leadership and staff to communicate the City’s concerns and interests regarding new business investment in Richmond. City officials

DECD should closely coordinate with GRP staff on business recruitment and marketing activities. DECD, GRP

2.4 Redesign the DECD section of the City’s website.

Organize an internal team to oversee the development of a new department website and coordinate with the City’s information technology department.

DECD

Determine if the site should be designed and built internally by city staff or by an outside design consultant. DECD


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1-6 Months

7-24 Months

Year 3



LONG-TERM PROGRAMS, TOOLS, AND ACTIONS

3.1 Continue diversifying the city’s economic base by pursuing a target industry strategy emphasizing knowledge-based industries.

Establish a prospect management system. DECD Develop and maintain a database of companies in each target industry. DECD Compile and maintain resource information for each target industry sector. DECD

Join and become active in trade or industry associations for the priority target sectors. DECD

Organize and train DECD business development staff to become an effective “sales force” for Richmond. DECD

Conduct eight call trips/marketing missions per year (two each quarter) to regions where target industry concentration is highest. DECD, GRP

Implement a direct mail and postcard campaign to target sector companies. DECD

Include Richmond businesses in business development efforts. DECD Track the success of the target industry campaign using its prospect management system. DECD

3.2 Support the development of the Virginia Life Sciences and Commercialization Center (VLSCC).

Assist in the project’s development by working with the park on approving requested zoning changes to the parcel. City departments

Begin meeting with representative of the Biotech Park and VCU regarding the joint pursuit of an EDA investment grant to fund all or a portion of the

DECD & City Administration


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1-6 Months

7-24 Months

Year 3


DECD – Department of Economic & Community Development; GRP – Greater Richmond Partnership; GRCC – Greater Richmond Chamber of Commerce; SBA – Small Business Administration (Richmond Office); MBL – Metropolitan Business League; VDWU – Virginia Dislocated Worker Unit; CRWC – Capital Region Workforce Center; VBRP – Virginia Biotechnology Research Park; RRC – Richmond Redevelopment Commission (recommended organization); VR – Venture Richmond; VCU – Virginia Commonwealth University; JSRCC – J., Sargeant Reynolds Community College; VUU – Virginia Union University; UR – University of Richmond commercialization center. Work with the Biotech Park in applying for an EDA investment grant to fund all or part of the VLSCC. DECD

Support the project by assisting with zoning, permitting, and infrastructure. City departments Work with the park to establish formal visitation and experiential learning programs at the Virginia Biotechnology Education and Visitors Center.

Richmond Public Schools

Consider establishing a revolving loan fund (RLF) focused on small and medium-sized companies in the life sciences field. DECD, VBRP

3.3 Redevelop the Armstrong High School site into a new state-of-the-art skills development and education center.

A feasibility study should be conducted to refine the concept and demonstrate the legal, physical, environmental, programmatic, and financial feasibility of the project.

City departments

Determine the cost and programmatic impacts of relocating the Richmond Technical Center. City, RPS

Evaluate a new transportation connection from the Armstrong to Nine Mile Road. City departments

Approach Bon Secours, J. Sargeant Reynolds, and other entities about their potential interest in participating in the project.

City administration

Explore other sources of federal and state funding. DECD US Dept. of Labor, US Dept. of Education, EDA

Consider pursuing EDA investment assistance. City administration


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1-6 Months

7-24 Months

Year 3



3.4 Commit to a long-term (20-year) strategy for redeveloping an area within the city for light industrial, commercial, information technology, and R&D activities.

Define the target area. RRC, DECD, City administration

Develop a master plan. RRC, DECD, City departments

Establish specific goals for the redevelopment initiative. RRC Land and building inventory RRC, DECD

Conditions survey RRC, DECD, City departments

Suitability assessment RRC, DECD, City departments

Planning and zoning review RRC, City departments

Enterprise zone and other special designations RRC, City departments

Approval of rights of way, appropriate eminent domain, and condemnation review

RRC, City departments

Inventory of financial tools RRC, DECD, City departments

Acquire a showcase building(s) in the target area. RRC ►

Marketing plan RRC, DECD, GRP, VR

Review of land acquisition approach RRC


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1-6 Months

7-24 Months

Year 3



3.5 Establish a Technology Zone that is linked to the Richmond Redevelopment Initiative.

Contact Commonwealth regarding guidelines and requirements for establishing a zone. DECD

Brief the CAO and City Council on the technology zone law and requirements. DECD

Include technology zone in comprehensive plan for Richmond Redevelopment Zone. RRC

Draft an ordinance to establish a Richmond Technology Zone in conjunction with the redevelopment plan. City legal staff

Adopt the ordinance. City Council

Designate an administrator of the zone. City administration

3.6 Consider the use of other incentive tools.

Tax Increment Finance (TIF) districts City administration

Development fee rebates City administration

Energy efficiency retrofit grants City administration

Consider establishing a revolving loan fund (RLF) focused on small and medium-sized companies in the life sciences field.

DECD, City administration

3.7 Promote entrepreneurship and small business development.


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1-6 Months

7-24 Months

Year 3



Assess the existing entrepreneurial programs and services available in the Richmond region.

DECD, SBA, GRCC, VCU, Advantech, JSRCC, VBRP

Support the establishment of additional angel investor networks. DECD, SBA, GRCC, Advantech

Private capital

Offer entrepreneurship training courses such as FastTrac or NxLeveL that provide intensive training for potential entrepreneurs. SBA

Support the creation of youth entrepreneurship education programs in Richmond Public Schools.

RPS, DECD, SBA, GRCC, VCU, Advantech, JSRCC, VBRP

Encourage the efforts of the Richmond Venture Forum and other mentor networks to provide “green” entrepreneurs with advice and counseling from experienced entrepreneurs.

DECD, SBA, GRCC, VCU, Advantech, JSRCC, VBRP

Celebrate and support entrepreneurship in the region. DECD, SBA, GRCC, VCU, Advantech, JSRCC, VBRP

3.8 Bring the business, workforce training, and education communities closer together.

Establish a Richmond Business and Education Task Force. City administration, RPS, GRCC, VCU, JSRCC,


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1-6 Months

7-24 Months

Year 3



VUU, UR, CRWC

Engage educators more directly in economic development. DECD, City administration, RPS, VCU, JSRCC, VUU, UR

3.9 Initiate a regional advertising and marketing program that targets the Greater Richmond Area and Northern Virginia.

Develop and implement a regional marketing effort utilizing media relations, the Internet, social media, newspapers, billboard, radio, and magazine advertising in the Richmond area and in Northern Virginia.

DECD, GRP, GRCC, MBL, VR

Work with the local media, including both print and broadcast media, to promote positive stories about the city.


Develop a “speakers bureau” of professionals that are available to speak at community meetings and promote local initiatives.


Assume ownership of Richmond’s entry on Wikipedia. DECD Establish a new Facebook page for DECD. DECD Create a Twitter account to update and inform regional residents and businesses of new announcements, upcoming events, and salient issues. DECD

Create a blog section on a redesigned DECD website to provide content and connect to other sites. DECD

Coordinate social media strategies with other organizations in the city such as the Venture Richmond and the CVB. DECD

RICHMOND, VIRGINIA Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy – Program Evaluation Measures

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PROGRAM PERFORMANCE MEASURES An important piece of any strategic plan is developing the metrics by which the success of the plan’s implementation will be measured and tracked. The types of performance measures normally established and used by organizations include:

• Input measures, which identify the amount of resources needed to provide a particular product or service, including labor, materials, equipment, and supplies;

• Output measures, which represent the amount of products or services provided, and focus on the level of activity involved in providing a service or making a product (workload measures are one of the most common type or output measures);

• Efficiency measures, also known as productivity measures, which reflect the cost of providing products or services, either in terms of dollars or time;

• Quality measures, which reflect the effectiveness in meeting the expectations of customers and stakeholders in providing a service or product, and can include reliability, accuracy, courtesy, competence, responsiveness, and completeness associated with the product or service provided; and

• Outcome measures, which reflect the actual results achieved with a service or a product.

The City of Richmond has established economic development performance measures for DECD (see table). These measures include metrics such as “Number of Businesses Retained,” “Number of Jobs Created,” and “Amount of New Business Investment.” Such measures are the national standard for economic development performance. Indeed, in its CEDS requirements, EDA requires that the program performance measure must include, but are not limited to the following:

DECD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PERFORMANCE MEASURES

Agency Programs Program Measures Actual

FY2008 Target FY2009

Target FY2010

Number of Businesses Retained 112 100 100

Number of Businesses Expanded 32 10 15

Number of Businesses Attracted 5 10 15

Number of Prospects 52 80 120

Number of New Jobs Created 448 200 500

Business & Project

Development

Amount of New Business Investment $16 million $12 million $15 million

Number of RFPs (redevelopment & infrastructure) 2 3 4

Commercial Corridor Infrastructure and Redevelopment Investments

$60 million $65 million $70 million

Special Projects Division

Return on Investment 1-10 1-15 1-20

Number of Annual Visitors 25,500 27,500 29,500

Number of New Vendors 10 12 15 17th Street Farmers Market

Number of Retained Vendors 50 53 55

Number of Jobs Created (EZIL & CARE) 394 360 400

Technical Assistance 1,005 285 325

Number of CARE Loans & Rebates 112 12 12

Number of NIBRLF 3 5 5

Neighborhood Development

Number of EZ Incentives 72 75 75

Source: Adopted Fiscal Plan FY2010 & FY2011


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• Number of jobs created after implementation of the CEDS;

• Number and types of investments undertaken in the region;

• Number of jobs retained in the region;

• Amount of private sector investment in the region after implementation of the CEDS; and

• Changes in the economic environment of the region.

It is the final bullet (changes in the economic environment of the region) that TIP is proposing DECD measure and track a new set of outcome measures. Outcome measures are the true indicators of a program’s effectiveness. They are broadly defined by various authoritative publications on the subject as “benefits or changes for participants occurring during or after their involvement with a program.” Successful outcomes concentrate on changes in the lives of clients. Of course, since the efforts of DECD are aimed at the entire community and at a variety of constituencies, those benefits or changes could be aimed at large numbers of people, at businesses, and at entire communities. If the department wishes to measure the impact of its efforts in economic development, various economic indicators should be tracked to measure the overall economic development of Richmond.

While it is difficult to directly connect the success of the economic development plan to certain economic statistics at the local level (e.g., median household income), tracking such indicators does provide a general understanding of the relative economic vitality of Richmond.

In addition to the business and project development measures DECD already tracks (business retained, expanded, and attracted; number of prospects; number of new jobs created), TIP is proposing the department measure and track the following economic indicators as a measure of overall economic vitality in Richmond.2

2 Some of these indicators the City already reports, including population, median age, and unemployment rate.

• Number of private establishments

• Private non-farm employment

• Private professional & business services employment

• Annual unemployment rate

• Average annual pay

• Median household income

• Poverty rate

• Annual population estimates

• Median age

• Population over age 25 with a bachelor’s degree or higher

• Population over age 25 with a high school degree or higher

• Total taxable assessed value of property

• Sales (1%) tax revenue

TIP has developed a graphical dashboard to assist in the tracking and illustration of these indicators (presented on the following pages). The value of the dashboard is that it provides a visual presentation of Richmond’s economic progress and vitality. For each metric, the dashboard contains the historical trendline, the figure for the most recent year, and the most recent year performance compared to the low and high figures. The dashboard is designed so that DECD can easily locate the original secondary data source and annually update the figures. In addition, DECD may choose to modify the dashboard by adding or substituting other indicators.


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Trendline (2001-2009)

Metric2009

Most Recent Year Performance Compared to Low and High Figures (2001-2009)

(Note: Indicators with asterisk are 2008 figures)

Number of Private Establishments

7,035

Private Non-Farm Employment

109,415

Private Professional & Business Services Employment

28,363

Annual Unemployment Rate

9.5%

Average Annual Pay

$51,565

6,6006,8007,0007,2007,400

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

26,00028,00030,00032,00034,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

0%2%4%6%8%

10%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


Page 125


Metric2009



Median Household Income*

$36,968

Poverty Rate*

25.1%

Annual Population Estimates

204,451

Median Age*

35.4

Population over 25 with a Bachelor's degree or Higher*

32.4%

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

190,000195,000200,000205,000210,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

34.035.036.037.038.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

31%31%32%32%33%33%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


Page 126


Metric2009



Population over 25 with a High School Degree or Higher*

79.9%

Total Taxable Assessed Value of Property (in billions)

$23.1

Sales Tax Revenue 1% Local (in millions)

$30.9

79%80%80%80%80%80%81%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

$0.0$5.0

$10.0$15.0$20.0$25.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

$0.0$10.0$20.0$30.0$40.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014


Page 127

APPENDIX A: HISTORICAL & FORECAST ECONOMIC INDICATORS The following section includes key economic indicators including employment by industry sector, 2004-2015

Key Forecast Assumptions

• The population forecast for all geography levels is provided by Moody's Analytics.

• The U.S. employment growth rates overall and by industry sector are taken from EMSI's 2009 Q3 national forecast. These U.S. rates are applied to QCEW (ES202) historical data from the BLS. The forecast assumes that all geography levels (city, MSA, and commonwealth) will recover at rates in line with the U.S.

• The unemployment rate forecast relies on Moody's population forecast by age cohort and assumes that the BLS national forecast of a relatively flat labor force participation rate. This flat rate is assumed to hold true across the city, MSA, and commonwealth levels.

• Sporadic, suppressed historical industry sector employment data at the city and MSA levels have been estimated by TIP Strategies in order to fill in missing gaps and to present a comprehensive employment history.

• Finally, it is important to note that the employment forecast is based on place-of-employment data, i.e., where the jobs are located. In contrast, the unemployment forecast is always based on a household series which represents where people live, not where they work.


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Figure A.1: Historical & Forecast Economic Indicators for the City of Richmond, including Employment by Industry Sector, 2004-2015

Net Chg Variable 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2009-2015

Population 197,194 197,586 198,480 199,991 202,002 204,031 206,084 208,257 210,440 212,636 214,840 217,050 +13,019

Unemployment rate (%) 5.6% 5.3% 4.5% 4.3% 5.9% 11.0% 9.8% 9.0% 8.3% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% —

Total employment 158,370 160,483 161,709 158,597 159,063 150,980 154,531 157,555 160,211 162,595 164,261 165,657 +14,676

Construction 6,875 7,176 7,348 7,483 6,886 5,899 6,098 6,262 6,401 6,521 6,592 6,599 +700

Manufacturing 11,091 10,682 10,096 9,341 9,138 7,792 7,698 7,644 7,616 7,609 7,655 7,631 -161

Wholesale trade 5,320 5,229 5,286 5,198 5,008 4,794 4,872 4,938 4,995 5,045 5,079 5,103 +309

Retail trade 9,202 9,331 9,314 9,313 9,054 8,421 8,540 8,643 8,734 8,818 8,880 8,918 +497

Transportation & warehousing 3,546 3,167 3,239 3,205 3,328 3,072 3,135 3,188 3,234 3,274 3,302 3,321 +249

Information & media 3,003 3,017 3,390 3,455 2,895 2,664 2,690 2,718 2,748 2,778 2,812 2,834 +170

Finance & insurance 6,782 6,747 7,162 7,383 7,316 7,067 7,269 7,438 7,583 7,712 7,796 7,857 +790

Real estate 2,280 2,234 2,073 1,965 1,951 1,853 1,975 2,076 2,161 2,236 2,282 2,327 +474

Professional & technical services 9,630 9,822 10,112 10,458 10,795 10,560 10,860 11,116 11,339 11,540 11,679 11,834 +1,273

Corporate & regional headquarters 9,964 11,424 11,694 10,764 10,853 10,351 10,594 10,801 10,982 11,144 11,255 11,386 +1,035

Administrative services 9,484 9,547 8,612 8,507 9,056 7,999 8,368 8,684 8,962 9,213 9,391 9,503 +1,504

Educational services (private) 2,854 2,943 2,825 2,890 2,975 3,027 3,143 3,239 3,321 3,392 3,436 3,493 +466

Healthcare & social services 14,487 15,306 16,510 15,182 21,726 21,222 21,954 22,579 23,128 23,623 23,971 24,413 +3,190

Accommodation & food services 8,345 8,539 8,889 9,401 9,138 8,623 8,858 9,055 9,224 9,373 9,470 9,567 +945

Federal government (civilian & military) 6,593 6,411 6,398 6,072 5,969 5,999 6,094 6,172 6,237 6,293 6,326 6,353 +354

State government 28,526 29,363 29,565 29,323 24,114 24,238 24,621 24,934 25,198 25,426 25,558 25,667 +1,429

Local government (incl. public education) 11,283 11,223 11,242 11,073 11,141 11,196 11,373 11,518 11,640 11,745 11,806 11,856 +660

Miscellaneous industries* 9,106 8,321 7,956 7,584 7,721 6,205 6,388 6,554 6,707 6,852 6,971 6,996 +791

SOURCES: TIP Strategies, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, EMSI, Moody's Analytics.

*NOTE: Miscellaneous & unclassified industries include ag/forestry/fishing/hunting, oil/gas/mining, utilities, arts/entertainment/recreation, personal & other services, unclassified industries.


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Figure A.2: Historical & Forecast Economic Indicators for the Richmond MSA, including Employment by Industry Sector, 2004-2015

Net Chg Variable 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2009-2015

Population 1,154,113 1,173,091 1,193,875 1,211,101 1,225,626 1,240,419 1,255,384 1,270,254 1,285,214 1,300,272 1,315,396 1,330,587 +90,168


Total employment 577,325 589,349 598,531 607,042 605,585 574,910 588,429 599,945 610,059 619,137 625,481 630,796 +55,885

Construction 40,028 42,446 43,463 44,259 40,727 34,914 36,094 37,062 37,883 38,593 39,015 39,057 +4,143

Manufacturing 46,180 45,155 43,846 42,247 40,745 36,068 35,635 35,383 35,256 35,222 35,435 35,322 -746

Wholesale trade 23,454 23,527 24,649 25,651 25,355 24,098 24,491 24,822 25,108 25,363 25,531 25,652 +1,554

Retail trade 67,472 65,370 68,930 66,963 68,400 65,497 66,423 67,224 67,938 68,588 69,068 69,364 +3,867

Transportation & warehousing 16,492 16,865 16,866 17,470 17,062 16,139 16,470 16,748 16,990 17,204 17,347 17,448 +1,309

Information & media 11,112 11,037 11,087 11,254 10,274 9,853 9,949 10,054 10,164 10,278 10,404 10,482 +629

Finance & insurance 37,622 37,301 37,823 36,558 34,526 33,354 34,306 35,103 35,791 36,399 36,795 37,084 +3,730

Real estate 8,336 8,465 8,190 8,127 7,804 7,413 7,901 8,303 8,647 8,946 9,131 9,311 +1,897




Educational services (private) 6,446 6,836 6,709 6,869 7,085 7,208 7,485 7,713 7,908 8,077 8,181 8,317 +1,109


Accommodation & food services 39,461 40,517 42,044 43,231 43,199 42,410 43,568 44,535 45,368 46,103 46,577 47,057 +4,647

Federal government (civilian & military) 15,161 14,953 14,938 14,986 15,083 15,161 15,400 15,596 15,761 15,904 15,986 16,055 +894


Local government (incl. public education) 53,230 54,121 55,160 56,052 57,103 57,395 58,302 59,044 59,669 60,209 60,521 60,779 +3,384

Miscellaneous industries* 33,606 34,007 31,992 36,864 33,982 25,386 26,317 27,112 27,812 28,440 28,883 29,362 +3,977




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Figure A.3: Historical & Forecast Economic Indicators for the Commonwealth of Virginia, including Employment by Industry Sector, 2004-2015

Net Chg Variable 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2009-2015

Population 7,454,688 7,546,725 7,628,347 7,698,775 7,769,089 7,867,309 7,966,670 8,065,481 8,164,946 8,265,083 8,365,711 8,466,827 +599,518


Total employment 3,495,767 3,578,558 3,635,790 3,672,958 3,665,654 3,559,534 3,643,232 3,714,531 3,777,152 3,833,358 3,872,639 3,905,544 +346,011

Construction 231,353 243,964 249,237 240,247 223,475 193,512 200,054 205,422 209,968 213,908 216,244 216,476 +22,964

Manufacturing 298,807 295,712 288,266 278,749 264,948 246,660 243,702 241,974 241,107 240,878 242,329 241,561 -5,100

Wholesale trade 115,112 117,446 119,517 121,452 119,838 115,390 117,273 118,855 120,228 121,445 122,254 122,830 +7,439

Retail trade 413,385 419,209 424,055 427,556 421,044 397,053 402,665 407,522 411,851 415,790 418,699 420,495 +23,442

Transportation & warehousing 101,543 105,028 102,543 102,695 101,577 96,309 98,282 99,944 101,386 102,666 103,520 104,121 +7,812

Information & media 100,234 93,292 91,820 90,882 87,626 83,749 84,564 85,450 86,386 87,358 88,426 89,095 +5,346

Finance & insurance 129,637 132,199 134,093 131,926 127,101 123,639 127,169 130,123 132,675 134,928 136,395 137,467 +13,828

Real estate 57,356 58,923 58,341 58,464 56,857 53,523 57,040 59,947 62,427 64,591 65,921 67,221 +13,698




Educational services (private) 47,018 49,839 51,825 54,907 56,708 57,274 59,471 61,285 62,832 64,180 65,005 66,087 +8,813


Accommodation & food services 276,627 285,277 293,021 298,777 301,785 286,532 294,354 300,887 306,518 311,482 314,685 317,925 +31,393

Federal government (civilian & military) 151,721 151,945 153,743 156,517 159,882 160,349 162,885 164,957 166,704 168,211 169,085 169,805 +9,455


Local government (incl. public education) 347,893 355,375 361,363 367,083 373,789 374,881 380,810 385,653 389,738 393,261 395,304 396,987 +22,105

Miscellaneous industries* 204,956 207,392 209,382 213,025 213,299 236,270 244,944 252,185 258,424 263,921 267,464 271,026 +34,756




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Figure A.4: Historical & Forecast Economic Indicators for the United States, Including Employment by Industry Sector, 2004-2015

Net Chg Variable 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2009-2015

Population 292,892,125 295,560,563 298,362,969 301,290,344 304,059,719 307,041,932 310,060,998 313,058,518 316,090,330 319,153,437 322,244,347 325,359,445 +18,317,514


Total employment 129,278,176 131,571,623 133,257,616 135,366,106 134,805,659 128,863,174 131,893,246 134,474,433 136,741,452 138,776,248 140,198,283 141,389,541 +12,526,366

Construction 6,916,398 7,269,317 7,573,479 7,562,732 7,124,886 5,989,049 6,191,513 6,357,651 6,498,361 6,620,276 6,692,600 6,699,778 +710,728

Manufacturing 14,257,380 14,190,394 14,098,434 13,833,022 13,382,697 12,208,036 12,061,621 11,976,080 11,933,202 11,921,849 11,993,665 11,955,639 -252,397

Wholesale trade 5,642,537 5,752,802 5,871,216 5,987,206 5,954,915 5,668,656 5,761,131 5,838,875 5,906,308 5,966,120 6,005,822 6,034,123 +365,467

Retail trade 15,060,686 15,256,340 15,298,858 15,509,017 15,307,933 14,495,667 14,700,526 14,877,850 15,035,900 15,179,702 15,285,913 15,351,493 +855,826

Transportation & warehousing 4,009,165 4,098,553 4,179,262 4,292,445 4,271,969 4,060,694 4,143,917 4,213,954 4,274,763 4,328,751 4,364,740 4,390,068 +329,374

Information & media 3,099,633 3,056,431 3,033,297 3,029,789 2,989,161 2,868,556 2,896,484 2,926,829 2,958,866 2,992,154 3,028,742 3,051,652 +183,096

Finance & insurance 5,813,299 5,912,592 5,999,510 5,992,373 5,857,197 5,684,141 5,846,426 5,982,245 6,099,537 6,203,135 6,270,601 6,319,860 +635,719

Real estate 2,077,487 2,125,259 2,148,013 2,153,608 2,111,179 1,978,038 2,108,037 2,215,473 2,307,115 2,387,082 2,436,246 2,484,270 +506,232

Professional & technical services 6,768,868 7,055,427 7,367,541 7,635,062 7,816,999 7,669,618 7,887,535 8,072,860 8,235,374 8,381,025 8,482,183 8,594,331 +924,713

Corporate & regional headquarters 1,696,537 1,743,214 1,782,404 1,839,616 1,895,417 1,846,812 1,890,291 1,927,186 1,959,471 1,988,348 2,008,234 2,031,547 +184,736

Administrative services 7,829,371 8,071,211 8,247,822 8,385,118 7,992,864 7,055,998 7,381,350 7,659,725 7,905,217 8,126,405 8,283,462 8,382,453 +1,326,455

Educational services (private) 2,079,232 2,144,340 2,194,123 2,284,556 2,366,800 2,402,754 2,494,933 2,571,049 2,635,919 2,692,479 2,727,107 2,772,484 +369,731

Healthcare & social services 14,005,731 14,335,141 14,665,700 15,148,606 15,587,303 15,726,268 16,268,480 16,731,370 17,138,733 17,505,055 17,763,082 18,090,354 +2,364,086

Accommodation & food services 10,614,677 10,871,471 11,069,256 11,373,660 11,417,016 10,842,896 11,138,898 11,386,121 11,599,196 11,787,033 11,908,273 12,030,859 +1,187,962

Federal government (civilian & military) 2,739,596 2,733,675 2,727,019 2,726,300 2,762,055 2,773,241 2,817,095 2,852,927 2,883,142 2,909,206 2,924,317 2,936,768 +163,528

State government 4,484,997 4,527,514 4,553,918 4,611,395 4,642,650 4,658,738 4,732,409 4,792,602 4,843,360 4,887,145 4,912,529 4,933,446 +274,709

Local government (incl. public education) 13,563,517 13,699,418 13,646,358 14,016,190 14,212,311 14,275,579 14,501,326 14,685,773 14,841,310 14,975,478 15,053,263 15,117,358 +841,778

Miscellaneous industries* 8,619,067 8,728,523 8,801,405 8,985,412 9,112,308 8,658,434 9,071,273 9,405,863 9,685,679 9,925,005 10,057,502 10,213,057 +1,554,623




Page 132

Figure A.5: Forecast Net Change in Employment by Occupational Group & Training Level, 2009-2015

SOURCE: TIP Strategies; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau; EMSI; Moody's Analytics *NOTE: Miscellaneous & unclassified industries include ag/forestry/fishing/hunting, oil/gas/mining, utilities, arts/entertainment/recreation, personal & other services, unclassified industries

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BY OCCUPATIONAL GROUPManagement +35 -8 +18 +11 +7 +12 +63 +45 +91 +181 +45 +20 +108 +24 +131 +34 +815Business & financial operations +20 -5 +12 +5 +5 +9 +177 +23 +156 +187 +56 +9 +44 +3 +253 +29 +982Computer & mathematical science +0 -3 +9 +2 +1 +24 +42 +3 +183 +105 +28 +7 +17 +0 +57 +8 +483Architecture & engineering +8 -9 +3 +0 +1 +4 +0 +1 +155 +27 +15 +1 +1 +0 +72 +21 +300Life, physical, & social science +0 -2 +2 +0 +0 +2 +4 +1 +62 +17 +6 +6 +17 +0 +73 +9 +197Community & social services +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +1 +8 +2 +10 +183 +0 +123 +4 +333Legal +0 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +7 +2 +101 +12 +4 +0 +1 +0 +61 +1 +189Education, training, & library +0 -0 +0 +0 +0 +1 +0 +0 +3 +3 +6 +276 +103 +0 +56 +6 +455Arts, design, & entertainment +0 -1 +3 +4 +0 +27 +3 +3 +55 +18 +9 +8 +6 +1 +15 +19 +170Healthcare (practitioners & technical) +0 -0 +1 +14 +0 +0 +4 +2 +26 +13 +36 +9 +1,058 +0 +108 +2 +1,273Healthcare (support) +0 -0 +0 +2 +0 +0 +0 +1 +12 +4 +19 +1 +639 +1 +37 +2 +717Protective services +0 -0 +0 +2 +1 +0 +2 +7 +2 +5 +130 +4 +13 +6 +464 +10 +645Food preparation & serving +0 -0 +0 +16 +0 +2 +0 +5 +1 +7 +0 +17 +102 +754 +28 +30 +963Property maintenance +4 -1 +1 +4 +2 +1 +2 +35 +6 +6 +309 +20 +88 +50 +64 +23 +613Personal care & service +0 -0 +0 +3 +7 +3 +0 +5 +5 +5 +11 +8 +205 +12 +74 +77 +415Sales & related +13 -5 +83 +271 +4 +23 +100 +118 +58 +53 +95 +1 +11 +27 +16 +28 +896Office & administrative support +68 -15 +73 +85 +72 +37 +384 +107 +305 +304 +335 +50 +524 +35 +445 +94 +2,902Farming, fishing, & forestry +0 -0 +3 +1 +0 +0 +0 +0 +1 +1 +0 +0 +0 +0 +7 +112 +124Construction & extraction +462 -3 +1 +2 +1 +0 +0 +7 +11 +5 +54 +2 +3 +0 +117 +77 +739Installation, maintenance, & repair +53 -8 +20 +25 +14 +17 +2 +74 +12 +24 +37 +5 +25 +8 +97 +89 +494Production +10 -84 +17 +14 +3 +4 +0 +3 +19 +17 +135 +1 +21 +6 +42 +54 +260Transportation & material moving +25 -15 +64 +37 +129 +4 +0 +32 +9 +33 +171 +10 +22 +17 +105 +64 +707BY TRAINING/EDUCATIONAL LEVEL

Least training Short-term on-the-job training +74 -37 +103 +350 +119 +30 +179 +183 +149 +161 +814 +113 +850 +745 +469 +284 +4,586 Least trainingModerate-term on-the-job training +264 -65 +125 +49 +79 +38 +186 +133 +233 +232 +359 +37 +456 +26 +521 +195 +2,868Long-term on-the-job training +232 -19 +6 +12 +8 +21 +33 +6 +19 +16 +31 +8 +15 +73 +348 +82 +893Work experience in a related field +68 -12 +24 +48 +17 +9 +53 +38 +42 +91 +71 +13 +75 +84 +216 +59 +896Postsecondary vocational award +11 -2 +10 +14 +9 +4 +2 +44 +67 +13 +53 +7 +595 +4 +122 +65 +1,018Associate's degree +1 -4 +5 +1 +1 +7 +11 +3 +116 +40 +37 +9 +615 +0 +119 +12 +974Bachelor's degree +31 -14 +19 +4 +9 +41 +250 +49 +425 +289 +87 +189 +194 +3 +384 +55 +2,016Degree plus work experience +16 -6 +17 +10 +4 +18 +69 +17 +121 +171 +45 +27 +92 +8 +130 +31 +769Master's degree +1 -0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +3 +1 +18 +10 +3 +35 +143 +1 +81 +6 +303Doctoral degree +1 -0 +0 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +13 +3 +1 +28 +13 +1 +10 +1 +73


No formal training +570 -121 +234 +411 +207 +89 +398 +322 +401 +409 +1,204 +158 +1,321 +845 +1,338 +561 +8,346Vocational preparation or prior experience +80 -18 +38 +63 +27 +19 +67 +85 +225 +144 +161 +29 +1,285 +88 +457 +136 +2,887 SUMMARY4-year degree or higher +50 -21 +37 +23 +15 +62 +325 +68 +647 +482 +139 +280 +584 +12 +648 +94 +3,444TOTAL NET JOB CHANGE 2009-2015 +700 -161 +309 +497 +249 +170 +790 +474 +1,273 +1,035 +1,504 +466 +3,190 +945 +2,443 +791 +14,677

CITY OF RICHMOND

SUMMARY


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Figure A.6: (CONTINUED) Forecast Net Change in Employment by Occupational Group & Training Level, 2009-2015

SOURCE: TIP Strategies; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Census Bureau; EMSI; Moody's Analytics *NOTE: Miscellaneous & unclassified industries include ag/forestry/fishing/hunting, oil/gas/mining, utilities, arts/entertainment/recreation, personal & other services, unclassified industries

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BY OCCUPATIONAL GROUPManagement +210 -37 +89 +86 +38 +43 +295 +180 +296 +421 +179 +47 +358 +117 +352 +169 +2,842Business & financial operations +121 -23 +60 +38 +25 +34 +836 +91 +511 +434 +223 +20 +145 +16 +680 +144 +3,353Computer & mathematical science +1 -15 +45 +15 +6 +88 +197 +12 +596 +243 +109 +16 +57 +1 +154 +42 +1,569Architecture & engineering +48 -43 +17 +1 +7 +13 +2 +4 +506 +63 +59 +2 +3 +0 +193 +107 +982Life, physical, & social science +0 -9 +8 +1 +1 +6 +18 +6 +201 +41 +28 +15 +56 +0 +197 +45 +614Community & social services +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +2 +2 +3 +19 +13 +24 +609 +0 +330 +21 +1,024Legal +1 -0 +1 +0 +0 +1 +35 +6 +330 +27 +20 +0 +3 +0 +163 +6 +595Education, training, & library +0 -0 +0 +1 +0 +3 +1 +0 +10 +7 +30 +657 +343 +0 +151 +28 +1,232Arts, design, & entertainment +0 -5 +14 +28 +1 +101 +13 +13 +179 +41 +39 +19 +21 +6 +40 +97 +608Healthcare (practitioners & technical) +2 -1 +4 +113 +1 +0 +19 +6 +85 +31 +141 +22 +3,508 +2 +290 +10 +4,233Healthcare (support) +0 -0 +0 +14 +0 +0 +1 +4 +38 +9 +76 +3 +2,119 +3 +99 +9 +2,376Protective services +3 -1 +1 +17 +5 +1 +8 +28 +6 +11 +522 +10 +43 +27 +1,248 +48 +1,977Food preparation & serving +0 -2 +1 +121 +2 +9 +1 +20 +3 +17 +0 +41 +339 +3,707 +76 +151 +4,485Property maintenance +25 -5 +7 +31 +9 +3 +9 +141 +21 +14 +1,239 +47 +292 +244 +171 +114 +2,363Personal care & service +1 -0 +0 +22 +38 +12 +1 +21 +17 +11 +49 +19 +679 +58 +199 +385 +1,512Sales & related +80 -22 +416 +2,109 +22 +84 +470 +473 +188 +123 +382 +3 +36 +133 +44 +139 +4,681Office & administrative support +402 -72 +368 +662 +380 +137 +1,810 +429 +995 +704 +1,347 +119 +1,738 +173 +1,197 +471 +10,860Farming, fishing, & forestry +0 -2 +13 +5 +1 +0 +0 +1 +3 +2 +0 +0 +1 +0 +18 +566 +607Construction & extraction +2,730 -13 +6 +14 +7 +1 +1 +28 +34 +12 +221 +4 +11 +2 +315 +387 +3,758Installation, maintenance, & repair +310 -37 +101 +195 +72 +63 +8 +295 +41 +56 +151 +13 +81 +40 +262 +449 +2,099Production +62 -391 +83 +106 +18 +15 +2 +10 +62 +39 +539 +2 +69 +31 +112 +270 +1,028Transportation & material moving +147 -67 +320 +287 +676 +13 +2 +128 +31 +77 +685 +25 +72 +85 +283 +321 +3,084

BY TRAINING/EDUCATIONAL LEVELLeast training Short-term on-the-job training +441 -173 +516 +2,724 +626 +110 +843 +732 +483 +369 +3,280 +267 +2,817 +3,662 +1,261 +1,426 +19,384 Least training

Moderate-term on-the-job training +1,554 -303 +624 +380 +419 +142 +878 +530 +759 +535 +1,446 +87 +1,512 +130 +1,402 +977 +11,072Long-term on-the-job training +1,370 -87 +32 +94 +45 +78 +157 +24 +64 +38 +123 +19 +50 +362 +935 +412 +3,717Work experience in a related field +407 -57 +119 +375 +92 +32 +250 +152 +139 +212 +284 +31 +251 +413 +582 +296 +3,579Postsecondary vocational award +66 -11 +52 +110 +48 +13 +12 +174 +219 +31 +213 +16 +1,973 +22 +327 +323 +3,588Associate's degree +10 -17 +23 +13 +5 +26 +54 +13 +379 +94 +149 +21 +2,039 +1 +325 +60 +3,195Bachelor's degree +186 -66 +98 +37 +48 +154 +1,178 +197 +1,381 +664 +348 +450 +645 +17 +1,033 +281 +6,651Degree plus work experience +96 -30 +84 +84 +23 +67 +326 +67 +397 +394 +180 +66 +305 +38 +349 +158 +2,604Master's degree +4 -0 +3 +2 +1 +4 +15 +3 +61 +27 +14 +83 +477 +1 +220 +33 +948Doctoral degree +4 -2 +1 +1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +44 +11 +3 +65 +44 +0 +22 +2 +201


No formal training +3,365 -563 +1,172 +3,198 +1,090 +331 +1,878 +1,286 +1,306 +942 +4,849 +373 +4,379 +4,154 +3,598 +2,815 +34,173SUMMARY Vocational preparation or prior experience +483 -85 +194 +498 +145 +71 +316 +339 +737 +337 +646 +68 +4,263 +436 +1,234 +679 +10,362 SUMMARY

4-year degree or higher +295 -98 +188 +171 +74 +227 +1,536 +272 +2,113 +1,124 +557 +668 +1,941 +57 +1,741 +483 +11,350TOTAL NET JOB CHANGE, 2009-2015 +4,143 -746 +1,554 +3,867 +1,309 +629 +3,730 +1,897 +4,156 +2,403 +6,052 +1,109 +10,583 +4,647 +6,573 +3,977 +55,885

Documents

2010-10-26 City of Richmond CEDS Complete Report · John Bennett Robert Blue Robert Crum William Roberts Jr. About TIP Strategies TIP Strategies, Inc. (TIP) is a privately held Austin-based