(2009)Psychologist George Brander DTIO-TIO DSTL Targeted Individuals in Information Operations

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© Crown Copyright, Dstl23 November, 2009

Understanding & Influencingin Cyberspace

George Brander - TL InfluenceCyber & Influence S & T Centre

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Scope of Presentation

Influence and the importance of ‘people’ in military operations

One model of how influence works

Who do we want to influence?

Cyberspace as a domain

What do we need to understand – the requirement

Research framework

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Definitions

Influence Activities [1]

“…affect the character or behaviour of an individual, group or organisation: they realise cognitive effects.

Whilst activities in the physical domain will undoubtedly have such effects….the focus of Information Activities is in the information domain.”

[1] Joint Doctrine Note 1/07

“Fighting battles is not about territory, it is about people, attitudes and perceptions. The battleground is there.”

The importance of the human factor The importance of the human factor ……..

General Sir Michael Jackson(Feb 2000)

“In a counter-insurgency the terrain is the people, rather than

bridges and hills and forests. You have to understand tribes, leaders

& the economic forces at work.”

General Stanley McChrystal(Speigel – Jan 2010)

SYNCHRONISED

EFFECT

cognitive domain

BEHAVIOUR

can change

achieves a can constrain

causes a

can influencecreates a

Physical Effect

Psychological Effect

Perceptual Effect

can create

can create

How activities have an effect on behaviour

enablesnew

ACTIVITY

Technology itselfTECHNOLOGY

Physical Effect Perceptual EffectPsych Effect

PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECTShock & Surprise Fear and PanicStress and TraumaFeelings of HopelessnessFeelings of HelplessnessDetermination / ResolveAlienationHabituationDenialLoss of FaceSocial InteractionGroup Participation

PERCEPTIONRisk of action outweighs

benefitI’ve been spottedMy cover’s been blownConflict is escalatingThey mean businessI’m not in controlSelf-doubt / RealisationLoss of normalityDifficulties in achieving

goal (impediments) I’m not safeI’m being watchedI’m being punished I’m being victimisedSomething has / has not

happened

PHYSICAL EFFECTDestructionDenialDisruptionDelivered AidDropped LeafletsDominated Air Space

Some examples of effects

Who do we want to influence?

Personality

Culture

Group

WiderWiderAudienceAudience

IndividualIndividual

GroupGroup

TeamTeam

Key leaders & decision-makers with whom direct interaction is possible. Opinion formers whose activities may help or hinder us.

Hostile or potentially hostile groups with whom direct interaction may not be possible. Examples include insurgent teams, military units, etc.

Uncommitted groups (segments) within the population whose attitudes, opinions and behaviours impact on our future success.

in context: Information Environmentin context: Information Environment

Information availableInformation available

Trusted SourcesTrusted Sources

Social Social commscomms

TelecommsTelecomms

MediaMedia‘‘MassMass’’ or or ‘‘NewNew’’’’

Preferred ContentPreferred ContentInformation

EnvironmentInformation

Environment

PersonalityPersonality

Culture

Group

Wider Context

and within the wider situationand within the wider situation…………

Information availableInformation available

Trusted SourcesTrusted Sources

Social Social commscomms

TelecommsTelecomms

MediaMedia‘‘MassMass’’ or or ‘‘NewNew’’’’

Preferred ContentPreferred ContentInformationEnvironmentInformation

Environment

PersonalityPersonality

Culture

Group

GeopoliticsGeopolitics

NeighboursNeighbours / Allies/ Allies

Access to ResourcesAccess to Resources

Local power brokersLocal power brokers

World eventsWorld eventsimpacting perceptionsimpacting perceptions

andandHostile InfluencersHostile Influencers

Definitions & emerging requirements

Cyberspace, as part of the information dimension, [2] is as much a part of the contemporary operating environment as the land, sea or air. Moreover, as identified by the National Security Strategy (NSS), it is ‘the most important new domain in national security of recent years’. [3] Its existence is undeniable, and has been for a period of decades, yet it remains a poorly understood domain which is all-too-often seen as the preserve of computer specialists.

[2] JDP 0-01, British Defence Doctrine (3rd Edition), (UK: MoD, 2008), para.240.[3] National Security Strategy: Annual Update 2009, (UK: Cabinet Office), Jun 09, para.46.

Influence Activities [1]“…affect the character or behaviour of an individual, group or organisation: they realise cognitive effects.

Whilst activities in the physical domain will undoubtedly have such effects….the focus of Information Activities is in the information domain.”

[1] Joint Doctrine Note 1/07

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Need to understand different things

Less concern with - What, Where and WhenMore interest in - Who, Why and How

Increasing recognition of the need to understand cultureGrowing appreciation of the importance of perceptions

A recognition that the cyber domain is important

The focus here is on people & technology, rather than on statistics and the evolution of cyberspace and its associated technologies.

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Cyberspace:

people & technology ortechnology enabled applications?

Second Life Twitter

World ofWarcraft

YouTubeFacebook

APP store

Second Life Twitter

World ofWarcraft

YouTubeFacebook

APP store

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Technology is important to us!

you can take it with you….

Paper technology has become part of the things that the Chinese diaspora burns during funeral practices. Along with more traditional things like paper money to ensure a good life in the next world, some people now also burn paper cell phones so that their ancestors can talk to each other.

from People and Practices Research Group at INTEL Genevieve Bell, Anthropologist

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“The kitten killer of Hangzhou”Chinese human-flesh search engines

On-line vigilante justice on Chinese internet forums where netizens collectively hunt down and punish those who have angered them.

Does collective action in this form resonate with Chinese culture? Is this a culturally specific phenomenon? Why is it surprising to us?Could we forecast where other types of collective activity might emerge?

Richard Bartle meets David McClellandMUDs and Motivational Needs

Achieversregard points-gathering and rising in levels as their main goal, and

all is ultimately subserviant to this

Explorersdelight in having the game expose its internal machinations to them

Socialisers interested in people, and what they have to say. Game merely backdrop, common ground

where things happen to players

Killersget their kicks from imposing

themselves on others

Achievementseeks attainment of goals and

advancement. Need for feed-back, accomplishment & progress

Scientists / Nerds???

Affiliationneed for friendships, interaction and

to be liked

Power authority motivated, needs to influence & make an impact. Need to lead & increase status and prestige

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and is addressed by Nick Yee

Nick Yee (Palo Alto) in 2006: extends Bartle’s taxonomy of players and empirically introduces other categories such as those who socialise in order to engage in teamwork.

Cyber Psychology and Behaviour, Volume 9, No 6. 2006Achievement Social Immersion Advancement Socialising Discovery Mechanics Relationship Role-playing Competition Teamwork Customisation Escapism

NEWMEDIA

Cyber activityCyber activityCyberspace enables new forms of social activity

Cyber activity may lead tonew forms of social activity

Human & Social Behaviour(that we wish to understand, and influence its behaviour)

Social activitySocial activityOLD

MEDIA

FOCUS AREAS INDIVIDUAL TEAM / GROUP WIDER AUDIENCE

• What is the relationship between online and off-line human and social behaviour?

UNDERPINNING HUMAN & SOCIAL

SCIENCE

• How do we observe and analyse online human and social behaviour?

INFORMATION GATHERING & ANALYSIS

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• How do we engage with, shape or influence human and social behaviour in cyberspace?

ENGAGEMENT, PERSUASION,

INFLUENCE

The framework: what is needed (wide range)




SCIENCE



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INFLUENCE

The framework: what is needed (social science)

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SCIENCE

• Are online personae real or

‘authentic’? In what way? • How much does the online self

reveal about the personality of the ‘real self’?

• Do group & social norms evolve

‘on-line’ in the same way as in the real world?

• Can the loose ties of connected individuals online transition into tightly bonded groups?

• How does social identity and social

influence operate online? • Are protest or ‘neighbourhood watch’

groups different on-line? Will people ‘participate’ more online and why?



• How can we verify the identity

& credibility of individuals that have only virtual presence?

• Do linguistic analysis techniques apply on-line, i.e. in Texts, on Twitter?

• How to study online groups? Can

we use existing social media / games or will we need to develop our own?

• Is online group activity sufficient or does it necessarily lead to off-line activity?

• How can we use new media to better

assess public opinion and attitudes? • What defines ‘key voices’ or opinion

formers on-line? What analyses might support this identification?



INFLUENCE

• How does communications

synchronicity impact on the development of online interpersonal relationships?

• How is trust created / lost?

• What causes online groups to lose

coherence, change goals, fragment?

• How does a ‘newcomer’ establish credibility / rapport with a virtual group?

• How can social marketing go wrong?

Can we learn from others’ mistakes? • How can we use immersive games as

a channel for our messages?

The framework: what is needed (examples)

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For the proposals…..

I discouragePurely technical research on establishing identityBuilding new virtual worlds for experimentationToo much concentration on trainingDevelopment of new O/S mining & analysis enginesToo much focus on CSCWToo much focus on Web Science

I encourageTheory based approaches drawing on social scienceExperimental and multi-disciplinary researchUnderpinning science that addresses ‘so what?’ questionMethods and approaches that have demonstrable utilityNovel ideas and concepts that will be ‘game changing’.

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Some random ideas & thought experiments

Will thin-slicing work in cyberspace?What would an on-line polygraph look like?Will people learn to better maintain distinct identities?Can individual & group motivations & attitudes be assessed in Can individual & group motivations & attitudes be assessed in cyberspace?cyberspace?How can we better understand the How can we better understand the ‘‘cultureculture’’ of cyberspace as it of cyberspace as it continues to evolve?continues to evolve?Will cyberspace demand new forms of information collection & Will cyberspace demand new forms of information collection & analysis?analysis?

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The Call

What we are looking for…

• Proposals by CDE process• Likely duration of 12 months• Full or partial MOD funding• Larger number of lower value (£20-£50K) proposals• Call has phase 1 funding for circa £500K in FY2010/11

When are we doing it…

• 22nd April – CDE Seminar• 7th June – Call Closes• 21st June – Decision Conference• 5th July – Target for Contract Placement

Documents

(2009)Psychologist George Brander DTIO-TIO DSTL Targeted Individuals in Information Operations