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鋼鐵工業政策環境影響評估研究計畫 專家諮詢會議 金屬工業研究發展中心 台灣綜合研究院 國立成功大學 國立台灣大學. 2009 年 10 月 8 日. 議程. 壹、前言 貳、政策背景及內容 參、 替代方案分析 肆、政策可能造成環境影響之評定. 簡報內容. 壹、前言. 一、緣起. 依據 92 年「環境影響評估法」第 26 條及「政府政策環境影響評估作業辦法」相關規定, 有影響環境之虞之政府政策,應實施環境影響評估 ,且政策研提機關於政策報請行政院核定時,應檢附評估說明書。 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
*2009 10 8
*
/14:0014:1014:1014:2514:2514:5014:5015:3015:3015:45Coffee Break15:4516:4516:4517:00
*
*
*92269541198
*()
(92.01.08)(95.04.07)95.04.110950022968 (96.01.15)
*95.04.110950022968 ()
1.()()972.3.()4.()()(10)()5.()6.7.8.9.
*()
()
()
()
()
()
*()
*()()
/1.2.3.()
*
*20076)WSA
*Steiner(1969)
1.2.
Up!
1.2.
* ()
*()
WT ST SO ST WTO SO WO SOSO SO WO WO WO ST
*()SWOT
*STWT
SOSOSOSTWOWO
SOWOSO
STWO(STEEL-Up Policy) Up!(Sustainable Technology, Environment, and Economy Lift-Up)2025
*
*2025WSA(crude steel)+(+) 7208-7308 +- *0.915+- 19892008N=20
()
*+ =0.9 CAGR = (/)^(1/N) 1()
*1454515()
(CAGR=3.09%)(CAGR=1.53%)(CAGR=0.41%)20254,1143,1752,6291,454515-31
Chart1
304.6600.11099.6198919891989
412562.71221.8199019901990
514.3582.91477.2199119911991
528.5542.11612.2199219921992
573.1624.41947.8199319931993
546.7612.21930.5199419941994
546.3614.21905199519951995
590.6644.41827.8199619961996
665.3894.42259.7199719971997
707.5981.12439.2199819981998
611926.72445.3199919991999
686.9997.12576.9200020002000
689.71031.62262.5200120012001
770.61052.42548.3200220022002
805.31077.92566.9200320032003
865.81093.82817.8200420042004
871.3985.32536.6200520052005
940.91068.22661.9200620062006
1001.11088.92562200720072007
979.51008.82452.62452.62452.62452.6
2009E2009e8701080252824902463
2010E2010e8701330260725282473
2011E2011e9801330268725672483
2012E2012e9801580277026062493
2013E2013e9801580285626462503
2014E2014e9801580294426872514
2015E2015e9801580303527282524
2016E2016e9801580312927692534
2017E2017e9801580322528122545
2018E2018e9801580332528552555
2019E2019e9801580342828982566
2020E2020e9801580353429432576
2021E2021e10801580364329882587
2022E2022e10801580375530342597
2023E2023e10801580387130802608
2024E2024e10801580399131272619
2025E2025e10801580411431752629
(3.19%)
(2.58%)
1.97
/GDP2008DDum(PGDPt)1989~2008AAGR=1.04%1989~2008CAGR
4.97%2,0082,4532,4532,4532,4532,4532,4532,4532,453
1989304660019047.02,25230310995.85.4679.5%2.210,819-1.61%1.61%50756192016110.020,156,5872009E1,9502,770-2,6032,6032,6032,4782,529
1990412056279747.02,46120512003.75.8879.5%2.212,2862.35%2.35%53647282186720.020,401,3052010E2,2002,8663.46%2,6882,6712,6542,5042,607
19915143582910972.03,8374614763.67.1674.0%2.614,259-3.42%3.42%57714922416060.020,605,8312011E2,3102,9673.52%2,7922,7612,7302,5302,657
19925285542110706.05,4433116118.17.7566.2%2.616,3931.70%1.70%62243522664190.020,802,6222012E2,5603,0733.57%2,9102,8572,8142,5562,707
19935726624411970.07,508319475.49.2861.4%2.918,619-4.40%4.40%66536762923100.020,995,4162013E2,5603,1632.95%3,0232,9432,8752,5832,758
19945467612711594.07,6801019264.19.1060.1%2.719,4430.93%0.93%714542431727924969.021,177,8742014E2,5603,2572.98%3,1363,0302,9352,6102,811
19955463614211605.07,4721919057.88.9260.8%2.520,2556.28%6.28%760902934187049560.021,357,4312015E2,5603,3563.01%3,2493,1172,9962,6372,864
19965906644412350.05,9421418277.78.4967.5%2.321,23116.16%16.16%808806837145479144.021,525,4332016E2,5603,4583.05%3,3633,2043,0572,6642,879
19976653894415597.07,0141522595.710.3969.0%2.622,141-2.01%2.01%8621225399035106725.021,742,8152017E2,5603,5643.08%3,4763,2903,1182,6922,893
19987075981116886.07,5292024395.411.1269.1%2.722,973-5.83%5.83%9013354424229131919.021,928,5912018E2,5603,6572.60%3,5893,3773,1792,7202,907
19996110926715377.09,1213724461.011.0762.7%2.623,466-4.07%4.07%9531425439171146861.022,092,3872019E2,5603,7532.63%3,7023,4643,2402,7482,922
20006869997116840.09,0269325773.711.5765.0%2.623,936-7.13%7.13%10081059453422161112.022,276,6722020E2,5603,8532.65%3,8153,5513,3012,7772,937
200168971031617213.05,4806722626.910.1075.8%2.323,5824.22%4.22%9862183442688150378.022,405,5682021E2,6603,9552.67%3,9283,6383,3622,8062,951
200277061052418230.07,3176425483.011.3271.3%2.524,140-5.27%5.27%10319445459598167288.022,520,7762022E2,6604,0622.69%4,0413,7243,4232,8352,966
200380761077918855.07,03820125691.811.3772.6%2.424,406-5.01%5.01%10680631467663175353.022,604,5502023E2,6604,1301.68%4,1543,8113,4832,8642,981
200486581093919597.08,7839828281.912.4668.9%2.525,149-11.08%11.08%11337829490168197858.022,689,1222024E2,6604,1991.68%4,2683,8983,5442,8942,996
20058713985418567.07,04224225367.211.1472.2%2.125,6601.15%1.15%11809552505671213361.022,770,3832025E2,6604,2701.69%4,3813,9853,6052,9243,011
200694101068320092.56,68915626625.411.6474.9%2.126,268-1.34%1.34%12386799524081231771.022,876,527
2007100191088420902.95,09436925628.611.1680.1%2.027,2396.28%6.28%13095646553507261197.022,958,360
200897951008819882.35,19755324526.410.6578.8%2.024526.424526.424526.426,7889.22%9.22%12365242539854247544.023,040,193
20091.04%26,03126,03126,03126,031516910224600.2
20104.09%26,87726,71026,53926,7102.61%2.61%3.25%537483245173.2
201127,91627,61127,29527,6113.37%3.37%3.87%564787272477.4
201229,10128,56528,13728,5653.46%3.46%4.24%593704301394.5
201330,23329,43328,74529,4333.04%3.04%3.89%620006327695.6
201431,36430,30129,35430,3012.95%2.95%3.74%646294353983.8
201532,49431,16929,96331,1692.86%2.86%3.60%672598380288.0
201633,62632,03730,57232,0372.78%2.78%3.48%698897406586.6
201734,75732,90431,18132,9042.71%2.71%3.36%725175432865.1
201835,88933,77231,79033,7722.64%2.64%3.26%751499459188.9
201937,02034,64032,39934,6402.57%2.57%3.15%777801485491.4
202038,15035,50833,00835,5082.50%2.51%3.05%804091511781.1
202139,28236,37633,61636,3762.44%2.44%2.97%830385538074.9
202240,41237,24434,22537,2442.39%2.39%2.88%856708564398.1
202341,54438,11234,83338,1122.33%2.33%2.80%883009590699.0
202442,67538,98135,44138,9812.28%2.28%2.72%909323617012.7
202543,80739,84836,05039,8482.22%2.22%2.65%935602643292.1
2.54%2.70%2.70%3.31%
0.37%0.37%0.47%
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
/GDP
GDP/
GDP
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
GDP/
(f=d/b) [%](g=c/e) [%](h=1-g) [%]
198910,99610,0613,3481,04312,36710.37%27.08%72.92%20.166132.445075619201611
199012,00410,9842,5791,29412,26911.78%21.02%78.98%20.46012.295364728218672
199114,76413,5093,8531,30116,0619.63%23.99%76.01%20.617792.785771492241606
199216,11814,7484,5221,74917,52111.86%25.81%74.19%20.88422.816224352266419
199319,47517,8205,9982,35921,45913.24%27.95%72.05%211,0223.236653676292310
199419,26417,6274,2152,39619,44613.59%21.68%78.32%21.189182.727145424317279
199519,05817,4385,1672,45920,14614.10%25.65%74.35%21.369432.657609029341870
199618,27816,7244,0483,09417,67918.50%22.90%77.10%21.538212.198088068371454
199722,59620,6754,4044,23220,84720.47%21.12%78.88%21.749592.428621225399035
199824,39522,3212,8614,65020,53220.83%13.93%86.07%21.939362.289013354424229
199924,46122,3823,2005,87719,70526.26%16.24%83.76%22.098922.079531425439171
200025,77423,5833,2965,99520,88425.42%15.78%84.22%22.289372.0710081059453422
200122,62720,7042,4185,58517,53726.97%13.79%86.21%22.417831.789862183442688
200225,48323,3173,2516,32120,24727.11%16.06%83.94%22.528991.9610319445459598
200325,69223,5083,5126,74720,27328.70%17.32%82.68%22.68971.9010680631467663
200428,28225,8784,2986,53623,64025.26%18.18%81.82%22.691,0422.0911337829490168
200525,36723,2113,3996,40720,20227.60%16.82%83.18%22.778871.7111809552505671
200626,62524,3623,2567,59620,02231.18%16.26%83.74%22.888751.6212386799524081
200725,62923,4513,4657,91119,00433.74%18.23%81.77%22.968281.4513095646553507
200824,52622,4413,4696,80019,11030.30%18.15%81.85%23.048291.5512365242539854
2.16639290700
2.237528724700
2.558024164300
2.589523696600
2.927007266400
2.696003344200
2.504626017300
2.259834116100
2.620940527600
2.706583143200
2.566356237400
2.55664429700
2.294305429100
2.469420206200
2.405459752300
2.494475088700
2.148020517600
2.149498187500
1.957032589300
1.983497532800
/GDP
GDP/
GDP
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
19893056009051,100-
19904125639751,22211.11%
19915145831,0971,47720.90%
19925295421,0711,6129.14%
19935736241,1981,94820.82%
19945476121,1591,931-0.89%
19955466141,1611,905-1.32%
19965916441,2351,828-4.05%
19976658941,5602,26023.63%
19987089811,6892,4397.94%
19996119271,5382,4450.25%
20006879971,6842,5775.38%
20016901,0321,7212,263-12.20%
20027711,0521,8232,54812.63%
20038051,0781,8832,5670.73%
20048661,0941,9602,8189.77%
20058719851,8572,537-9.98%
20069411,0682,0092,6624.94%
20071,0011,0892,0902,562-3.75%
2008E979.51008.81,95010.3%8701080
2009E1,9508701080
2010E2,200-2,2008701330
2011E2,3109801330
2012E2,5609801580
2013E2,5609801580
2014E2,5609801580
2015E2,5609801580
2016E2,5609801580
2017E2,5609801580
2018E2,5609801580
2019E2,5609801580
2020E2,5609801580
2021E2,66010801580
2022E2,66010801580
2023E2,66010801580
2024E2,66010801580
2025E2,66010801580
00000111
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
(*0.915)*0.915/GDP12 Ds(PGDP)23 lnPDsGDPBUL334 PDsPGDP44
19891099.61006.11280.519891280.52.51,2770.24%1131.011.68%7.2-6.60%1,3710.611.21%1,137
19901221.81117.91290.619901290.62.41,371-6.21%1284.50.48%7.3-10.74%1,4460.7-2.85%1,327
19911477.21351.61676.119911676.12.91,5577.10%1490.911.05%7.45.49%1,5890.85.51%1,584
19921612.21475.21809.219921809.22.91,838-1.61%1714.25.25%7.50.83%1,7940.9-2.99%1,863
19931947.81782.22239.419932239.43.42,2141.15%1947.313.05%7.69.06%2,0531.03.61%2,159
19941930.51766.42004.019942004.02.81,9164.38%1897.35.32%7.56.19%1,8871.0-5.77%2,120
19951905.01743.12052.719952052.72.71,9803.54%1848.19.96%7.65.80%1,9401.0-1.33%2,080
19961827.81672.41768.219961768.22.21,918-8.47%1789.0-1.17%7.6-7.21%1,9060.9-14.61%2,027
19972259.72067.62078.019972078.02.41,9585.77%1733.816.56%7.66.99%1,9420.94.79%1,978
19982439.22231.91995.419981995.42.22,033-1.91%1683.415.63%7.6-0.26%2,0010.92.98%1,936
19992445.32237.41879.119991879.12.01,972-4.92%1653.512.01%7.6-4.38%1,9650.9-1.91%1,915
20002576.92357.91933.020001933.01.91,9101.20%1625.015.93%7.60.21%1,9290.91.96%1,895
20012262.52070.21568.120011568.11.61,688-7.62%1646.5-5.00%7.5-11.20%1,7660.9-23.39%1,935
20022548.32331.71805.920021805.91.71,7294.26%1612.710.70%7.50.23%1,8020.8-5.38%1,903
20032566.92348.71808.320031808.31.71,6797.14%1596.511.71%7.52.22%1,7690.8-4.58%1,891
20042817.82578.32146.720042146.71.91,80515.92%1551.527.72%7.514.87%1,8690.814.21%1,842
20052536.62321.01828.720051828.71.51,7832.51%1520.516.85%7.5-1.56%1,8580.81.08%1,809
20062661.92435.61789.120061789.11.41,843-3.00%1486.216.93%7.6-6.20%1,9070.80.93%1,773
20072562.02344.21693.11693.11693.11693.11693.120071693.11.31,839-8.64%1429.015.60%7.6-11.45%1,9120.7-0.82%1,707
2008E2,6012,379.61,9331,7291718.21595.22008E1,9331372.57.61,9870.71,645
2009E2,6402,415.62,0311,7651743.61503.02009E2,0311313.17.62,0640.71,574
2010E2,6802,452.02,1351,8021769.41416.22010E2,1351250.77.72,1440.61,499
2011E2,7202,489.12,2431,8391795.61334.32011E2,2431185.17.72,2280.61,420
2012E2,7612,526.72,3581,8761822.21257.22012E2,3581116.27.72,3150.61,335
2013E2,8032,564.82,4561,9151849.11184.52013E2,4561057.37.82,3890.51,263
2014E2,8452,603.52,5581,9531876.51116.12014E2,558995.97.82,4650.51,186
2015E2,88821.602,642.82,6641,9931904.31051.52015E2,664932.07.82,5430.51,106
2016E2,9322,682.82,7752,0331932.4990.82016E2,775865.57.92,6240.41,022
2017E2,9762,723.22,8912,0731961.0933.52017E2,891796.27.92,7080.4933
2018E3,0212,764.42,9912,1141990.1879.52018E2,991735.87.92,7800.4855
2019E3,0672,806.13,0962,1562019.5828.72019E3,096673.38.02,8540.3774
2020E3,1132,848.53,2042,1982049.4780.82020E3,204608.68.02,9310.3690
2021E3,1602,891.53,3152,2412079.7735.72021E3,315541.78.03,0090.3603
2022E3,2082,935.13,4312,2852110.5693.22022E3,431472.48.03,0890.2513
2023E3,2562,979.53,5172,3292141.8653.12023E3,517420.78.13,1490.2445
2024E3,3053,024.43,6062,3742173.5615.32024E3,606367.78.13,2100.2375
2025E3,355626.603,070.23,6972,4202205.6579.82025E3,697313.48.13,2720.1304
201
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
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000000
000000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
(*0.915)
*0.915
GDP
CAGR1.48%
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
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0000000
0000000
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00000
00000
(*0.915)
*0.915
1 lnDsGDPBUL
2 Ds(PGDP)
3 lnPDsGDPBUL
4 PDsPGDP
(3.19%)(2.58%)1.97(*0.915)*0.915(CAGR=2.69%)(CAGR=1.95%)CAGR=1.52
19893056001099.6--19891,0061,237--
19904125631221.811.11%111221.811.11%19901,0981,227-0.79%11290.61676.12239.4
19915145831477.220.90%111477.220.90%19911,3511,60630.91%20.79%1809.22004.0
19925295421612.29.14%111612.29.14%19921,4751,7529.09%21768.22052.7
19935736241947.820.82%3319931,7822,14622.47%31879.12078.0
19945476121930.5-0.89%319941,7631,945-9.38%31568.11995.4
19955466141905.0-1.32%3319951,7442,0153.60%31805.91933.0
19965916441827.8-4.05%3319961,6721,768-12.25%21808.32146.7
19976658942259.723.63%3319972,0682,08517.92%31828.7-0.60%
19987089812439.27.94%2319982,2322,053-1.51%31789.1
19996119272445.30.25%2219992,2381,970-4.03%21693.1
20006879972576.95.38%2220002,3582,0885.99%30.10%
20016901,0322262.5-12.20%3220012,0701,754-16.03%2
20027711,0522548.312.63%2320022,3322,02515.45%2
20038051,0782566.90.73%2220032,3512,0270.13%2
20048661,0942817.89.77%2220042,5882,36416.61%3
20058719852536.6-9.98%2220052,3212,020-14.54%2
20069411,0682661.94.94%2220062,4362,002-0.90%2
20071,0011,0892562.0-3.75%2220072,3451,900-5.08%2
2008979.51008.82452.6-4.27%2,4532,4532,453220082,2441,9113.20%1,9111,9111,911
2009e8701,0802,5282,4902,4632009e2,2781,9621,9481,940
2010e8701,3302,6072,5282,4732010e2,3132,0151,9861,970
2011e9801,3302,6872,5672,4832011e2,3492,0692,0251,999
2012e9801,5802,7702,6062,4932012e2,3842,1252,0642,030
2013e9801,5802,8562,6462,5032013e2,4212,1822,1052,061
2014e9801,5802,9442,6872,5142014e2,4592,2412,1462,092
2015e9801,5803,0352,7282,5242015e2,4962,3012,1882,124
2016e9801,5803,1292,7692,5342016e2,5342,3632,2302,156
2017e9801,5803,2252,8122,5452017e2,5732,4272,2742,189
2018e9801,5803,3252,8552,5552018e2,6122,4922,3182,222
2019e9801,5803,4282,8982,5662019e2,6522,5592,3632,256
2020e9801,5803,5342,9432,5762020e2,6932,6282,4092,290
2021e1,0801,5803,6432,9882,5872021e2,7342,6982,4562,325
2022e1,0801,5803,7553,0342,5972022e2,7762,7712,5042,360
2023e1,0801,5803,8713,0802,6082023e2,8182,8462,5532,396
2024e1,0801,5803,9913,1272,6192024e2,8612,9222,6032,433
2025e1,0801,5804,1143,1752,6292025e2,9053,0012,6542,470
1989600.1
1990562.7
1991582.9
1992542.1
1993624.4
1994612.2
1995614.2
1996644.4
1997894.4
1998981.1
1999926.7
2000997.1
20011031.6
20021052.4
20031077.9
20041093.8
2005985.3
20061068.2
20071088.9
2008E1008.8
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
2021E
2022E
2023E
2024E
2025E
(3.19%)
(2.58%)
1.97
1989198919891989
1990199019901990
1991199119911991
1992199219921992
1993199319931993
1994199419941994
1995199519951995
1996199619961996
1997199719971997
1998199819981998
1999199919991999
2000200020002000
2001200120012001
2002200220022002
2003200320032003
2004200420042004
2005200520052005
2006200620062006
2007200720072007
2008E2008E2008E2008E
2009E2009E2009E2009E
2010E2010E2010E2010E
2011E2011E2011E2011E
2012E2012E2012E2012E
2013E2013E2013E2013E
2014E2014E2014E2014E
2015E2015E2015E2015E
2016E2016E2016E2016E
2017E2017E2017E2017E
2018E2018E2018E2018E
2019E2019E2019E2019E
2020E2020E2020E2020E
2021E2021E2021E2021E
2022E2022E2022E2022E
2023E2023E2023E2023E
2024E2024E2024E2024E
2025E2025E2025E2025E
(*0.915)
*0.915
(CAGR=2.69%)
(CAGR=1.95%)
CAGR=1.52
0.90.9
19891,100-
19901,22211.11%1,1000.00%
19911,47720.90%1,1121.11%1,1000.00%
19921,6129.14%1,1483.29%1,1010.11%11
19931,94820.82%1,1954.04%1,1060.43%11
19941,931-0.89%1,2706.30%1,1140.81%110.41%
19951,905-1.32%1,3365.20%1,1301.40%13
19961,828-4.05%1,3934.26%1,1511.82%13
19972,26023.63%1,4363.12%1,1752.11%13
19982,4397.94%1,5195.73%1,2012.23%131.25%1.53%
19992,4450.25%1,6116.06%1,2332.65%32
20002,5775.38%1,6945.18%1,2713.07%32
20012,263-12.20%1,7835.21%1,3133.33%32
20022,54812.63%1,8312.69%1,3603.58%32
20032,5670.73%1,9023.92%1,4073.46%322.68%
20042,8189.77%1,9693.49%1,4573.52%22
20052,537-9.98%2,0544.31%1,5083.52%22
20062,6624.94%2,1022.35%1,5623.62%22
20072,562-3.75%2,1582.66%1,6163.45%22
20082,453-4.27%2,1981.87%1,6703.35%222.78%3.09%
4.09%10.20%3.71%1.49%2.35%1.19%
0.90.20.50.9
(e=b+c-d) []
19891,237
19901,227-0.79%1,2370.00%
19911,60630.91%1,236-0.08%111,2370.00%1,2370.00%1,2370.00%
19921,7529.09%1,2733.00%121,236-0.06%111236.181955-0.04%111236.572151-0.01%11
19932,14622.47%1,3213.77%122.24%1,2652.39%121254.4584071.48%121240.18842180.29%11
19941,945-9.38%1,4036.25%331,3103.50%121.95%1287.566070052.64%121248.236952930.65%13
19952,0153.60%1,4573.86%321,3845.72%331345.380229924.49%132.14%1263.7326966161.24%13
19961,768-12.25%1,5133.82%321,4434.21%321401.35663536554.16%231283.09273103551.53%12
19972,08517.92%1,5391.68%311,4993.90%321457.21045104773.99%231306.08988460491.79%12
19982,053-1.51%1,5933.55%322.57%1,5312.11%321497.87693555232.79%221329.33523815011.78%121.04%
19991,970-4.03%1,6392.89%221,5813.27%322.69%1545.51668180183.18%221355.71735714021.98%32
20002,0885.99%1,6722.02%211,6272.96%221592.34049352393.03%222.59%1384.06205195082.09%32
20011,754-16.03%1,7142.49%221,6632.20%221632.31819412272.51%321412.88543622792.08%32
20022,02515.45%1,7180.23%211,7042.43%221673.1139396862.50%321442.987861132.13%32
20032,0270.13%1,7491.79%211,7150.66%211695.50266320521.34%321470.47821368951.91%321.64%
20042,36416.61%1,7761.59%211,7421.56%211722.03742062861.57%321498.28761012571.89%22
20052,020-14.54%1,8353.31%221,7701.59%211749.23952543771.58%321526.10301213781.86%22
20062,002-0.90%1,8541.01%211,8222.97%221792.21702632992.46%321557.01216364632.03%22
20071,900-5.08%1,8690.80%211,8471.39%211822.95851541491.72%321586.68094773161.91%22
20081,9110.56%1,8720.17%211.26%1,8640.92%211.52%1845.75232473241.25%321.55%1614.86746636341.78%221.42%
2.20%12.91%2.21%1.64%2.31%1.43%2.25%1.18%1.49%0.65%
1989~2008AAGR=1.04%CAGR
-3.19%-2.58%-1.97%-3.06%-1.53%-0.41%
2009E1,9502,7702,5312,5162,5012,5282,4902,4632,4782,529
2010E2,2002,8662,6122,5812,5502,6072,5282,4732,5042,607
2011E2,3102,9672,6952,6472,6002,6872,5672,4832,5302,657
2012E2,5603,0732,7812,7162,6522,7702,6062,4932,5562,707
2013E2,5603,1632,8702,7862,7042,8562,6462,5032,5832,758
2014E2,5603,2572,9612,8582,7572,9442,6872,5142,6102,811
2015E2,5603,3563,0562,9312,8123,0352,7282,5242,6372,864
2016E2,5603,4583,1533,0072,8673,1292,7692,5342,6642,879
2017E2,5603,5643,2543,0852,9233,2252,8122,5452,6922,893
2018E2,5603,6573,3573,1642,9813,3252,8552,5552,7202,907
2019E2,5603,7533,4653,2463,0403,4282,8982,5662,7482,922
2020E2,5603,8533,5753,3303,1003,5342,9432,5762,7772,937
2021E2,6603,9553,6893,4153,1613,6432,9882,5872,8062,951
2022E2,6604,0623,8073,5043,2233,7553,0342,5972,8352,966
2023E2,6604,1303,9283,5943,2863,8713,0802,6082,8642,981
2024E2,6604,1994,0543,6873,3513,9913,1272,6192,8942,996
2025E2,6604,2704,1833,7823,4174,1143,1752,6292,9243,011
-1,6101,5231,1227571,454515-31264351
*: Isoquant Curve
()
X1
X2
X3
I1
I2
I3
Q
A
B
C
+
*(CAGR=1.53%)2025515()
:=70:30
99.41%78.32%66.97%
*
STEEL-Up Policy 40 := 70:3040
*
*(Life Cycle Thinking)FAHP FAHPLCA()
*
* () (WSA) Dimensions
*()
WSAHertin(2003)WSASTEEL-UP
*()
/kg-eq NOx(air)NOx/VOCs / COkg-eq PM2.5air PM10/ SOx,SS, TDS, COD,:( kg-2-4-Dsoil) VOCsPAHsH+()SOxNOxNH3HClHF -- (kg-eq Bezeneair )-- (kg-eq Tolueneair ) Disability Adjust Life Years,DALYsVOCsPAHs
*()()
/// CO2CH4N2O
*()()
lost-time injury frequency rate
*() IS: ; LCE: ; CF: ; Q : ; EF: ; RF : ; WF : i : ; j : ; y : ; m : ; st : ; r : ; w :
*
()
NIS >1.25- - 1.05~1.25- 0.95~1.05O 0.75~0.95+
*()20072008()()(Cause-Effect Chain)
*()
Baseline BAT BAT BAT BAT BAT
*()SOxPM10NOx202510%20%()20255()
(NOx)(PM2.5)()( PO420152025201520252015202520152025201520253.593.961.691.9221.924.60.220.285756333.533.821.621.7121.423.30.210.265646213.453.691.581.6420.822.40.200.245506003.383.331.551.4920.319.90.190.18536536
*() SOxNOx() ()
( ~2~4~Dsoil)(~eq SO2)(~eq Bezene )eq Toluene 201520252015202520152025201520253.384.284.895.340.800.9591710903.314.064.785.030.750.8188110013.113.754.704.900.720.778479392.922.844.624.520.690.65813791
*
() 20256() () () ()
()()(CO2)2015202520152025201520252015202511412014.414.943.445.928.936.810911413.814.342.244.228.936.810811213.714.141.743.426.933.910710613.613.541.140.925.125.1
*()()()95%
202581,06360977,138 57967,978 511
Sheet1
2.573.193.382.582.93
3.713.633.753.583.67
3.432.502.382.582.72
*()2025()99.4%78.3%67.0%()20252,5981,463202521,73312,263
()()(%)2007--78.8202521,7332,59899.418,8932,25978.312,2361,46367.0
*()*1*2()(FAHP) ()(FAHP) FAHP(SAW)AHP FAHP -(FAHP)*1:*2:
*()FAHP()1. 2. 3. 4. 14 54
*()FAHP
NGO10814462721458171373071175
1.()2.()3.()4.()5.()6.()7.()1.()2.()3.()4.()5.()6.()
*()FAHP
Sheet1
0.090.080.070.090.09
0.090.080.080.080.08
0.090.080.070.080.08
0.080.080.070.080.08
0.090.080.070.080.08
0.080.080.070.080.08
0.170.320.280.240.26
0.040.030.040.040.04
0.040.030.030.030.03
0.050.030.040.040.04
0.040.020.040.030.04
0.040.030.050.050.04
0.040.030.040.040.04
0.040.030.040.040.04
0.070.130.160.190.14
0.090.130.170.180.14
0.090.150.210.200.16
0.420.320.220.230.30
0.320.270.250.200.26
0.280.280.270.400.31
0.220.220.230.350.26
0.250.250.240.130.22
0.250.250.260.120.22
*()FAHP()()()
Chart1
0.8330127820.87377611391
0.93636961340.93087149930.8412571907
1.00451388890.9230453850.7800234506
Sheet1
()
1.kg-eq NOx(air)2.kg-eq PM2.5air( kg-2-4-Dsoil)( kg-2,4-Dwater)kg-eq SO2(kg-eq Bezeneair )(kg-eq Tolueneair )
20072.53E+071.23E+071.38E+064.27E+093.76E+079.58E+043.62E+0711.02E+094.56E+118187009054.045271276206011.087.89E+101911.747.44E+095.56E-021.50E+086.43E+04148311.38E+061.38E+06181.77%
2015
20253.65E+071.68E+071.74E+066.28E+095.35E+071.33E+055.05E+0711.62E+097.24E+1112191477074.08131487150884.708151.16E+112191.741.06E+108.55E-022.39E+088.11E+040.756.09E+023.2211.74E+061.74E+060.7599.7%
2015
20253.54E+071.63E+071.66E+066.08E+094.93E+071.23E+054.93E+0711.46E+096.54E+1112015171824.84771487150884.708151.14E+112191.749.79E+098.05E-022.16E+087.71E+040.95.79E+023.7211.66E+061.66E+060.989.98%
2015
20253.28E+071.52E+071.46E+065.62E+093.96E+071.01E+054.66E+0711.10E+094.92E+1111603792909.96911487150884.708151.10E+112191.747.86E+096.89E-021.62E+086.80E+041.15.11E+022.5611.46E+061.46E+061.167.19%
Max3.65E+071.68E+071.74E+066.28E+095.35E+071.33E+055.05E+071.00E+001.62E+097.24E+111.22E+101.49E+091.16E+112.19E+031.06E+108.55E-022.39E+088.11E+041.10E+006.09E+023.72E+001.00E+001.74E+061.74E+061.10E+009.97E-01
Min3.28E+071.52E+071.46E+065.62E+093.96E+071.01E+054.66E+071.00E+001.10E+094.92E+111.16E+101.49E+091.10E+112.19E+037.86E+096.89E-021.62E+086.80E+047.50E-015.11E+022.56E+001.00E+001.46E+061.46E+067.50E-016.72E-01
2007
2015
20250.900.900.840.890.740.760.921.000.680.680.951.000.941.000.740.810.681.001.000.840.871.001.001.001.001.00
2015
20250.930.930.880.920.800.820.941.000.750.750.971.000.961.000.800.860.750.950.830.881.001.000.950.950.830.90
2015
20251.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.001.000.840.681.000.691.000.840.840.680.67
*2007
2015
20251.441.371.261.471.421.391.401.591.591.491.171.471.151.431.541.591.260.751.260.001.001.261.260.751.22
2015
20251.401.331.201.431.311.281.361.441.441.471.171.451.151.321.451.441.200.901.200.001.001.201.200.901.10
2015
20251.301.241.061.321.051.051.291.081.081.421.171.391.151.061.241.081.061.101.060.001.001.061.061.100.82
0.110.110.100.080.080.080.19711676410.030.030.030.030.040.030.030.200.200.220.200.180.340.280.200.19
AHP
2015
20250.09827049020.0901626810.09349151420.0618199330.07102703260.08344545940.13397265310.03208963560.03160766530.03170596920.03060270370.02696631640.02638182850.02146890.19523424010.19843480140.18787658150.1770139130.17781007750.33503937010.28162729660.19843346250.1894137597
2015
20250.10125804310.09475086930.09656090910.06703144590.07448065220.08344545940.14821647890.03256050450.03160766530.03223829940.03060270370.0292533810.02800874970.02376095230.18578027430.16536233450.19743722380.20448158910.17781007750.31881552160.26798985880.16536121880.1708787858
2015
20250.1089901420.10751730220.10457162270.08344545940.08460442410.08344545940.19711676410.0337148430.03160766530.03355275240.03060270370.03647073720.03271639660.03164372790.1637210210.13529645550.22403929190.14039034480.17781007750.28095987530.23616917050.13529554260.1275988622
2015
20250.8330127820.93636961341.0045138889
2015
20250.87377611390.93087149930.923045385
2015
202510.84125719070.7800234506
Sheet1
000
000
000
CR
*
*
*
GDP95%90%C to C (Cradle to Cradle)
*
*
*
*()/() ()
*1.++ 2.(20092025)1.230~3%3.(2025)(X)100X500100~500>1000
*4.5020
5. 7030 7030 ()
**********************************************