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Steering through troubled waters Tonny Andersen, CFO October 7, 2008 2008 Merrill Lynch CEO Conference

2008 10 PS Merrill Lynch - danskebank.com

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C O N T R O L L E R F O R U M

Steering through troubled waters

Tonny Andersen, CFO

October 7, 2008

2008 Merrill Lynch CEO Conference

2

Danske Bank at a glance

� 5 million customers

� 2 million active online customers

� 821 branches in 9 countries*

� 23,849 full-time employees

� Differentiated markets with a higher growth than the eurozone average

� Long-term ratings (Moody�s/S&P) Aa1/AA- (stable outlook)

Sweden

* Excluding agricultural centres in Denmark.

3

Denmark:Branches: 380Market share: 27%Market rank: 1Loan growth (Y/Y): 7%

Sweden:Branches: 59Market share: 6%Market rank: 5Loan growth (Y/Y):22%

Norway:Branches: 55Market share: 6%Market rank: 4Loan growth (Y/Y): 31%

Northern Ireland:Branches: 92Market share: 18%Market rank: 1-2Loan growth (Y/Y): 4%

Ireland:Branches: 66Market share: 5%Market rank: 5Loan growth (Y/Y): 19%

Finland:Branches: 123Market share: 14%Market rank: 3Loan growth (Y/Y): 8%

Danske Bank�s market profile- Market leader and challenger positions

Note: Market share figaures are based on lending market shares.

Market Leader

Market Leader

Estonia:

Branches: 24

Market share: 11%

Market rank: 3

Loan growth (Y/Y): 29%*

Latvia:

Branches: 4

Market share: 1%

Market rank: 18

Loan growth (Y/Y): 29%*

Lithuania:

Branches: 18

Market share: 8%

Market rank: 4

Loan growth (Y/Y): 29%*

Market Challenger

Market Challenger

Market Challenger

Market ChallengerMarket Challenger

Market Challenger

Market Leader

* Loan growth for Baltic countries in total.

4

Something rotten in the state ofDenmark?

5

= lower than EU average = better than EU average

Low growth, but a healthy economy

GDP growth (%) Budget balance (% of GDP) Gross pub. debt (% of GDP) Unemp. rate (%)

0.5 4.1 21 1.7

2.6 4.7 33 6.3

1.0 2.4 37 6.1

3.1 12.0 26 2.6

1.3 -1.1 65 7.4

Source: Danske Research, October 2007

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6Fi

nlan

d

EK

Sw

eden

Spa

in

Irel

and

Bel

gium E

U

Ital

y

Fran

ce

Uni

ted

Kin

gdom

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Source: OECD.

General government budget balance (% of GDP, 2007)

Significant fiscal elbow room

7

35%

40%

>60%

Is disposable income a useful measure�

Welfare system or not�

�in analysing consumer leverage?

8

Gross saving (% GDP, 2006)

High level of national savings

14

1525

9

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Denmark

Netherlands

Switzerland

Canada

United Kingdom

Finland

Australia

Portugal

Spain

Norway

Japan

Austria

% of GDP

Source: OECD, Economic survey of Denmark.

Private pension assets reduce the need for real property equity

10

0

4

8

12

16

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

Unemployment is a lead indicator

Foreclosures, unemployment and 10-year yield #

Source: Danske Research

%

<=Unemployment

Foreclosures =>

<= 10-year yield

,

,

,

11

Source: Council of Mortgage Lenders and Danske Bank.

This quality gap is not new

Danske Bank�s Mortgage Finance division

>3-month arrears (%)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

12

Infrastructure and governance model are proven pillars of the Danish mortgage system

Mortgage market characteristics

Size (� bn) 258 111 10 app. 4,000 1,600

30-year fixed rate Yes No No No No

Maturity match 100% < 100% < 100% < 100% < 100%

Pricing risk No Yes Yes Yes Yes

LTV max Yes Yes Yes No No

Originate/Distribute No No No Yes Yes

Use of brokers No No No Yes Yes

13

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

01

/07

03

/07

05

/07

07

/07

09

/07

11

/07

01

/08

03

/08

05

/08

07

/08

09

/08

Spain

Denmark

Sweden

UK

The spreads are validating the same story �staying much narrower than peers

European covered bonds (5-yr bullets)Swap spreads (bp)

14

1,5

1,8

2,0

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2007 2008

Total lending margin%

Lending margins in Denmark are widening

15 bp

Total lending margin

15

☺☺

Spread management differs in different markets

☺What�s holding banks back from repricing?

Northern Ireland & Ireland

Norway

Sweden

Denmark

Finland

The Baltics

16

-100

0

100

200

300

1 w

eek

2 w

eeks

3 w

eeks

1 m

onth

2 m

onths

3 m

onths

4 m

onths

5 m

onths

6 m

onths

9 m

onths

12

months

DKr bn

12-month liquidity*Moody�s Financial Strength

End Q4 2007

End Q2 2008 28%

27%

22%

17%

2%4%

Funding structure

Deposits

Issued bonds &

subordinated debt

Danish mortgages

(match-funded)

Credit institutions, central banks

and repos

Unique and resilient funding position

Covered bonds (DKr 50bn)(New legislation)

Shareholders�equity

* Main assumptions: No access to capital markets; no refinancing of debt to credit institutions, issued bonds or subordinated capital; and moderate reduction of business activities.

17

Banks17%

Personal customers

30%

Govts & public authorities

2%

Subsidied housing companies

5%

Health care1%

Commercial property

8%

IT1%

Other industrials3%

Materials2%

Tele-communication

0%

Tranportation and shipping

3%Consumer

9%Energy and utilities

2%

Construction & bldg mat.

2%

Div. financials11%Other financials

4%

Diversified loan book

Credit exposure, end Q2 2008(DKr 2,699bn)

18

Developers, commercial property and construction exposure

Construction & building materials

DKr bn Denmark Ireland GroupContractors 4.2 5.1 23.6Others 10.1 0.7 24.1Total 14.3 5.8 47.7

Commercial property

DKr bn Denmark Ireland GroupRental comm. 52.0 12.0 172.9Developers 1.6 6.5 15.7

Others 7.1 2.1 22.6

Total 60.7 20.6 211.2

19

Integration costs Amortisations Synergies, Sampo

Expenses: Net impact on integration costs and synergies: 2007 vs. 2009: -DKr 1.8bn

DKr m

Tailwind from �low-complexity� cost reductions coming through the P&L

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2007 2008 2009

20

Summary

� Slow growth, but a very healthy Danish economy

� Danish consumers not overleveraged

� Unique Danish mortgage model

� The financial storm will be managed through

� an active and proven widening of lending spreads

� cost reductions with low execution risk

� solid liquidity and capital management

� And a state guarantee�..

21

T/N - Cibor 3mdr spread

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

01

-07

-20

07

01

-08

-20

07

01

-09

-20

07

01

-10

-20

07

01

-11

-20

07

01

-12

-20

07

01

-01

-20

08

01

-02

-20

08

01

-03

-20

08

01

-04

-20

08

01

-05

-20

08

01

-06

-20

08

01

-07

-20

08

01

-08

-20

08

01

-09

-20

08

01

-10

-20

08

bps

Money market not functioning well - distrust among banks drives up funding costs

bps T/N �Cibor 3 month spread

87 bp

22

A quick overview

� Two-year state guarantee on liabilities in Denmark incl. deposits and unsecured claims

� Financial sector issues DKr 10bn loss guarantee and pays an annual commission of DKr 7.5bn

� Minimum payment DKr 15bn (2*annual commission)� Maximum payment DKr 35bn (paid commission +loss guarantee + potential additional

commission)

� No dividend payment and share buybacks

� For Danske Bank the guarantee is expected to � Contribute to better flow of liquidity and funding� Reduce funding costs� Reduce fee income by approx. DKr 2.5bn a year

� Update on preliminary earnings Q3 2008� Income from banking activities slightly lower than expected� Results in Danske Markets and Danica affected negatively by financial turmoil� Costs as expected� Loan losses approx. DKr 1.8bn including write-downs on Lehman Brothers

23

What

State guarantee- What is included in the guarantee?

Who

All financial institutions in Denmark with:

� A banking license

� And a membership of the Sector Fund*

� Deposits

� Due to credit institutions (interbank liabilities)

� Issued bonds (senior debt)

Banks with branches in

foreign countries covered by a local

state guarantee can choose

between the systems

Runs for two years but can be extended if deemed necessary to maintain financial stability

* Sector Fund = Det Private Beredskab. See slide number 10 for further information

24

State guarantee- What is not included in the guarantee?

What

� Liabilities in subsidiaries and foreign branches in countries without state guarantee

� Hybrid capital and subordinated debt

� Covered bonds

� Debt and deposits secured on government-bonds or covered bonds

25

The guarantee and the expenses for the Sector Fund

1. Sector Fund issues DKr 10bn first loss guarantee

2. Pays an annual commission of DKr 7.5bn equal to DKr 15bn over two years

� Payment in cash or shares

3. Potential extra DKr 10bn fee if total losses exceed DKr 25bn

� Minimum payment DKr 15bn (2*DKr 7.5bn)� Maximum payment DKr 35bn (DKr 10bn + DKr 2*7.5bn + DKr 10bn)

The state is liable for further losses

26

Implications for participants- during the two-year period

The participants are not allowed to

� Pay out dividend

� Initiate new share-buyback programs

� Establish new share option programmes

� Extend existing share option programmes

Danske Bank�s share of the Sector Fund

� Approx 1/3

� Based on capital requirement for Danish activities under the guarantee

27

Implications for Danske Bank

The guarantee is expected to

� Facilitate the Group�s access to funding and reduce funding costs

� Have a positive effect on net interest income

� Reduce net fee income by DKr 2.5bn p.a. for two years

� Approx. DKr 0.6bn for Q4 2008

� Effect from October 6, 2008

� Add additional expenses if payment under the guarantee falls due (maximum DKr 6.7bn)

28

Update on preliminary earnings Q3 2008

Preliminary results for Q3 2008 show

� Income from banking activities slightly lower than expected

� Financial results in Danske Markets and Danica are adversely affected by financial turmoil

� Expenses develop as expected

� Credit loss expenses for the third quarter of 2008 of approx. DKr1.8bn, including write-downs on Danske Bank�s facilities to Lehman Brothers

� Credit loss expenses for the full year are expected to exceed the average for a business cycle

Updated guidance for the full year will be given in the Q3 results published on October 28, 2008

29

www.danskebank.com/ir