2006-03 Compilation of thesis abstracts, March 2006 … Compilation of thesis abstracts, March 2006 . ... Email: [email protected] The Compilation of Theses Abstracts

Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive

Theses and Dissertations Compilations of Thesis Abstracts, from 2005

2006-03

Compilation of thesis abstracts, March 2006

http://hdl.handle.net/10945/27506

Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California 93943-5138

NPS-09-06-003

Compilation of

Theses Abstracts

March 2006

Office of the Associate Provost and Dean of Research Naval Postgraduate School

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PREFACE

This publication contains abstracts of unrestricted or unclassified theses submitted for the degrees doctor of philosophy, master of business administration, master of science, and master of arts for the March 2006 graduation. Classified and restricted distribution abstracts are listed on the NPS SIPRnet. This compilation of abstracts of theses is published in order that those interested in the fields represented may have an opportunity to become acquainted with the nature and substance of the student research that has been undertaken. Copies of theses are available for those wishing more detailed information. The procedure for obtaining copies is outlined on the last page of this volume. For additional information on programs, or for a catalog, from the Naval Postgraduate School, contact the director of admissions.

Director of Admissions Code 01B3

Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5100

Phone: (831) 656-3093 Fax: (831) 656-3093

The web edition of the school’s catalog is at: http://nps.navy.mil

For further information about student and faculty research at the school, contact the associate provost and dean of research.

Associate Provost and Dean of Research Code 09

Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5138

Phone: (831) 656-2099 Fax: (831) 656-2038

Email: [email protected]

The Compilation of Theses Abstracts (unrestricted) can be found online at http://www.nps.edu/Research/ and within the military domain at

http://www.nps.navy.mil/Research/thesisyr.html

The Compilation of Theses Abstracts (unrestricted) can be found online at http://www.nps.edu/Research/ and within the military domain, at






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INTRODUCTION

______________________________________________________

Mission The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) was established to serve the advanced educational needs of the Navy. The broad responsibility of the school is reflected in its stated mission:

Increase the combat effectiveness of U.S. and allied armed forces and enhance the security of the U.S.A. through advanced education and research programs focused on the technical, analytical, and managerial tools needed to confront defense-related challenges of the future.

To fulfill its mission, the Naval Postgraduate School strives to sustain excellence in the quality of its instructional programs, to be responsive to technological change and innovation in the Navy, and to prepare officers to introduce and utilize future technologies. The research program at NPS exists to support the primary mission of graduate education. Research at NPS: • maintains upper division course content and programs at cutting edge; • challenges students with creative problem solving experiences on DoD relevant issues; • advances DoN/DoD technology; • solves warfare problems; and • attracts and retains quality faculty. Academic Programs To meet its educational requirements, the Navy has developed a unique academic institution at the Naval Postgraduate School through the use of specially tailored academic programs, and a distinctive organization tying academic disciplines to naval and joint warfighting applications. The Naval Postgraduate School has aligned its education and supporting research programs to achieve three major goals: 1) academic programs that are nationally recognized and support the current and future operations of the Navy and Marine Corps, our sister services, and our allies; 2) institutes that focus on the integration of teaching and research in direct support of the four pillars of Joint Visions 2010 and 2020 and their enabling technologies; and, 3) executive and continuing education programs that support continuous intellectual innovation and growth throughout an officer’s career.

INTRODUCTION

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Programs of graduate studies at NPS are grouped as follows: Graduate School of Operational and Information Sciences • Computer Science • Computer Technology • Electronic Warfare Systems, International • Human Systems Integration • Information Sciences • Information Systems and Operations • Information Systems and Technology • Information Warfare • Joint C4I Systems

• Joint Information Operations • Modeling, Virtual Environments, and

Simulation • Operations Analysis • Operations Logistics • Software Engineering • Space Systems Operations • Space Systems Operations, International • Special Operations and Irregular Warfare

Graduate School of Engineering and Applied Sciences • Applied Mathematics • Combat Systems Science and Technology • Electrical Engineering • Electronic Systems Engineering • Engineering Acoustics • Mechanical and Astronautical Engineering • Meteorology • Meteorology and Oceanography • Oceanography

• Operational Oceanography • Space Systems Engineering • Systems Engineering • Systems Engineering and Analysis • Undersea Warfare • Systems Engineering Management, Product

Development • Undersea Warfare, International

Graduate School of Business and Public Policy • Acquisition and Contract Management • Defense Systems Analysis • Defense Systems Management, International • Executive Management • Financial Management • Information Systems Management • Leadership Education and Development • Logistics and Transportation Support

Management

• Manpower Systems Analysis • Program Management • Resource Planning and Management for

International Defense • Supply Chain Management • Systems Acquisition Management • Transportation Management

School of International Graduate Studies • Civil-Military Relations • Defense Decision Making and Planning • Homeland Security • Security Studies: Stabilization and

Reconstruction

National Security and Intelligence: • Europe/Russia/Central Asia • Far East/Southeast Asia/Pacific • Middle East/Africa/South Asia • Western Hemisphere

Students The student body consists of U.S. officers from all branches of the uniformed services, civilian employees of the federal government and military officers and government civilian employees of other countries. Resident degree/subspecialty student population for March 2006 is shown in Figure 1 on the following page.

INTRODUCTION

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Academic Degrees Although the curricula are tailored to address defense requirements, they are developed within the framework of classical academic degrees, meeting the highest academic standards. Each curriculum leads to a Master’s degree; however, additional study can lead to either an engineer’s degree or the doctor’s degree. Below is a listing of the degrees offered at NPS: Master of Arts Degrees National Security Affairs Security Studies Master of Business Administration Master of Science Degrees Applied Mathematics Applied Physics Applied Science Astronautical Engineering Combat Systems Technology Computer Science Contract Management Defense Analysis Electrical Engineering Engineering Acoustics Engineering Science Human Systems Integration Information Operations Information Systems and Operations Information Technology Management Leadership and Human Resource Development Management Mechanical Engineering Meteorology Meteorology and Physical Oceanography Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation Operations Research Physical Oceanography Physics Product Development

Program Management Software Engineering Space Systems Operations Systems Engineering Systems Engineering Management Systems Technology Engineer Degrees Astronautical Engineer Electrical Engineer Mechanical Engineer Doctor of Philosophy Applied Mathematics Applied Physics Astronautical Engineering Computer Science Electrical Engineering Engineering Acoustics Information Sciences Mechanical Engineering Meteorology Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation Operations Research Physical Oceanography Physics Software Engineering Doctor of Engineering Astronautical Engineering Engineering Acoustics Mechanical Engineering

Figure 1: Resident Degrees/Subspecialty Student Population for March 2006 (Total Enrollment: 1,723)

* U.S. Army National Guard, U.S. Army Reserve, U.S. Coast Guard, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

INTRODUCTION

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There were 160 degrees conferred in March 2006. Figure 2 indicates the distribution of degree type; Figure 3 indicates the degree conferred.

Figure 2. Distribution by Degree Type

(160 Degrees Conferred)

*Other: Contract Management, Engineering Acoustics, Human Systems Integration, Information Operations,

Information Systems and Operations, Software Engineering, Systems Engineering

Figure 3. Degrees Conferred in March 2006 (160 Degrees Conferred)

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Thesis The thesis is the capstone of the student’s academic endeavor at NPS. Thesis topics address issues from the current needs of the fleet and joint forces to the science and technology that is required to sustain long-term superiority of the Navy/DoD. With their faculty advisors, students provide an important capability within the DoD for addressing warfighting problems. This capability is especially important at the present time when technology in general, and information operations in particular, are changing rapidly. Our officers must be able to think innovatively and have the knowledge and skills that will let them apply technologies that are rapidly being developed in both the commercial and military sectors. Their unique knowledge of operations, when combined with a challenging thesis project that requires them to apply their focused graduate education, is one of the most effective methods for both solving fleet/joint-force problems and instilling the lifelong capability for applying basic principles to the creative solving of complex problems. NPS is unique situated to conduct classified research. Restricted theses are available on the NPS SIPRNET.

Figure 4. Classification of Theses

(160 Degrees Conferred)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Long-Term Military Contingency Operations; Identifying the Factors Affecting Budgeting in Annual or

Supplemental Appropriations ........................................................................................................................3 A Multivariate Analysis of Retirement Intentions of Enlisted Naval Reservists...............................................3 Analysis of Operational Manning Requirements and Deployment Procedures for Unmanned Surface

Vehicles Aboard U.S. Navy Ships.................................................................................................................3 An Exploratory Study: Female Surface Warfare Officers’ Decision to Leave Their Community ...................4 Accounting for Uncertainty in a Business Case Analysis for Implementing Advanced Technology

Ordnance Surveillance in a Munitions Management Environment.............................................................4 Performance Based Logistics (PBL) for the FA-18/S-3/P-3/C-2 Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) at

Honeywell: An Applied Analysis ..................................................................................................................5 Analysis of Perceived Financial Conditions of U.S. Navy Enlisted Personnel .................................................6 Determining Personnel Accession Requirements for Medical Service Corps Health Care

Administrators Using a Steady State Analysis .............................................................................................6 Vertical Integration and the Military – A Strategic Approach to the Outsourcing Decisions in the

Department of Defense...................................................................................................................................7 MASTER OF SCIENCE APPLIED PHYSICS Modeling and Simulation of the Free Electron Laser and Railgun on an Electric Naval Surface Platform ..11 Simulation of the Acoustic Pulse Expected from the Interaction of Ultra-High Energy Neutrinos

and Seawater .................................................................................................................................................11 COMPUTER SCIENCE A Software-Based Network Infrastructure for Mobile Ad Hoc Data Networking in Support of Small

Tactical Units Using the SINCGARS Radio ..............................................................................................13 Analysis and Design of a Cooperative Weapon Assignment Module for Advanced Battle Manager of a

Ballistic Missile Defense System ................................................................................................................13 Border Monitoring Based on a Novel Passive-Infrared Detection Model .......................................................14 Comparisons of Attacks on Honeypots with Those on Real Networks............................................................14 An Implementation of Remote Application Support in a Multilevel Environment.........................................14 The Design of a Stand-Alone Division Tactics Simulator Utilizing Non-Proprietary (Open Source)

Media and Iterative Development ...............................................................................................................15 A Survey and Analysis of Access Control Architectures for Extensible Markup Language (XML) Data....15 An Analysis of Linux RAM Forensics ...............................................................................................................16 CONTRACT MANAGEMENT Measuring the Effectiveness of the Communications Electronics Life Cycle Management Command

(CE-LCMC) Internship Pilot Training Program.........................................................................................17 DEFENSE ANALYSIS Islamic Revival in the Balkans ............................................................................................................................19 A Legacy of Excellence: The United States Air Force (USAF) Weapons School’s Challenge to

Maintain Standards .......................................................................................................................................19 Collaborative Network Evolution: The Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning Group..................................20 ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING Recognition of In-Ear Microphone Speech Data Using Multi-Layer Neural Networks .................................21 Simulation of Physical and Media Access Control (MAC) Layer for Scalable Wireless Sensor

Networks .......................................................................................................................................................21 RF Characteristics of MICA-Z Wireless Sensor Network Motes.....................................................................22 Isolated Word Recognition from In-Ear Microphone Data Using Hidden Markov Models (HMM).............22 Sensor Synchronization, Geolocation, and Wireless Communication in a Shipboard Opportunistic

Array..............................................................................................................................................................23

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Power Losses and Thermal Modeling of a Voltage Source Inverter ................................................................23 A Performance Analysis of Routing Protocols for Ad-Hoc Networks.............................................................24 A Galvanically Isolated Power Converter Module for DC Zonal Electric Distribution Systems...................24 ENGINEERING ACOUSTICS Communications Performance of an Undersea Acoustic Wide-Area Network ...............................................27 HUMAN SYSTEMS INTEGRATION An Innovative Approach for Assessing the Ergonomic Risks of Lifting Tasks Using a Video Motion

Capture System .............................................................................................................................................29 INFORMATION OPERATIONS American Grand Strategy in an Age of Terrorism.............................................................................................31 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT Valued Information at the Right Time (VIRT) and the Navy’s Cooperative Engagement

Capability (CEC) – A Win/Win Proposition ..............................................................................................33 Computer and Voice Network Management through Low Earth Orbiting Satellites......................................33 A CyberCIEGE Campaign Fulfilling Navy Information Assurance Training and Awareness

Requirements ................................................................................................................................................34 Border Monitoring Based on a Novel Passive-Infrared Detection Model .......................................................34 Business Process Re-Engineering (BPR) of the Navy’s Information Professional (IP) Community’s

Continuing Education Unit (CEU) Tracking Process ................................................................................35 Solutions Analysis of Universal Wireless Joint Point Technologies in Heterogeneous Tactical

Networks .......................................................................................................................................................35 Operation of Long-Haul Non-LOS Wireless Tactical Networks......................................................................36 MANAGEMENT The Effects of Work-Related Perceptions on Retention of Hispanics in the U.S. Marine Corps...................37 The Effects of End-of-Month Recruiting on Marine Corps Recruit Depot Attrition ......................................37 Effect of Increased Operational Tempo (Post 9/11) on the Retention of Navy Medical Corps Officers .......38 United States Marine Corps Personal Discount Rates: As Evidenced from Voluntary Separation

Payment Programs ........................................................................................................................................38 Forecasting Marine Corps Enlisted Manpower Inventory Levels with Univariate Time Series Models.......39 FedEx Premium Service Effects on Defense Distribution Inventories and Shipments ...................................39 Salary Auctions and Matching as Incentives for Recruiting to Positions that are Hard to Fill in the

Norwegian Armed Forces ............................................................................................................................40 An In-Depth Analysis of the Department of the Navy’s Targeted Separation Incentive Program as a

Force-Shaping Tool ......................................................................................................................................40 Republic of Korea (ROK) Army Manpower Force Structure: Validation of Organizational

(Officer, Non-Commissioned Officer (NCO), and Enlisted Personnel) Staffing of an Infantry Battalion ........................................................................................................................................................40

A Retention Analysis of U.S. Naval Academy Immediate Graduate Education Participants ........................41 An Analysis of Primary Military Occupational Specialties on Retention and Promotion of Mid-Grade

Officers in the U.S. Marine Corps ...............................................................................................................41 Frontline Strategies of the National Rifle Association ......................................................................................42 The Effects of the Global War on Terrorism on Retention of Marine Corps Aviators ...................................42 MECHANICAL ENGINEERING Design, Fabrication, and Testing of a Scalable Series Augmented Electromagnetic Railgun Research

Platform .........................................................................................................................................................43 Experimental Verification of the Flow Around Compressor Blades in Cascade at Stall with Initial

Numerical Simulations .................................................................................................................................43 Study of Micro-Sized Technology, Micro Air Vehicles, and Design of a Payload Carrying

Flapping Wing Micro Air Vehicle...............................................................................................................44 Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) Measurements in the Wake of a Cascade of Compressor Blades

at Stall ............................................................................................................................................................44

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METEOROLOGY Applying Ensemble Prediction Systems to Department of Defense Operations .............................................45 Analysis of Weather Forecast Impacts on United States Air Force Combat Operations ................................45 Accuracy of Tropical Cyclone Induced Winds Using Typhoon Determination (TYDET) at Kadena...........46 Operational Assessment of Target Acquisitions Weapons Software (TAWS) Prediction Performance

at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada ................................................................................................................46 Evaluation of Convective Wind Forecasting Methods During High Wind Events .........................................47 The Impacts of Climate Variations on Military Operations in the Horn of Africa..........................................47 Bulk Meteorological Parameters for Diagnosing Cloudiness in the Stochastic Cloud Forecast Model ........48 Development and Evolution of Cirrus in a Mesoscale Model ..........................................................................48 Evaluation of the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)

4-km Moving Nest Model Predictions for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones ............................49 Prototype Development of Machine-to-Machine Operational Nephanalysis ..................................................49 North Pacific-North American Circulation and Precipitation Anomalies Associated with the

Madden-Julian Oscillation ...........................................................................................................................50 Convective Indices for the Central and Western Tropical Pacific....................................................................50 The Impacts of Global Scale Climate Variations on Southwest Asia ..............................................................51 The Impact of Synoptic-Scale Flow on Sea Breeze Front Propagation and Intensity at Eglin Air

Force Base .....................................................................................................................................................51 METEOROLOGY AND PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY Mine Drop Experiment II with Operational Mineshapes (MIDEX II) .............................................................53 Impact of GFO Satellite and Ocean Nowcast/Forecast Systems on Naval Antisubmarine

Warfare (ASW).............................................................................................................................................53 Enhancement of the Daytime MODIS Based Aircraft Icing Potential Algorithm Using Mesoscale

Model Data....................................................................................................................................................54 Bomb Strike Experiment for Mine Clearance Operations.................................................................................54 MODELING, VIRTUAL ENVIRONMENTS, AND SIMULATION Development of Integrated 3D Terrain Maps for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Flight and

Mission Control Support System (FMCSS)................................................................................................55 SAVAGE Modeling Analysis Language (SMAL): Defining the Link between Simulation and

Three-Dimensional Visualization Using Extensible Markup Language...................................................55 OPERATIONS RESEARCH Optimized Recovery of Damaged Electrical Power Grids ................................................................................57 Using Integrated Mechanical Diagnostics Health and Usage Management System (IMD-HUMS)

Data to Predict UH-60L Electrical Generator Condition ...........................................................................57 PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY Typhoon Effects on the South China Sea Wave Characteristics During Winter Monsoon ............................59 Determination of Changes in the State of the Arctic Ice Pack Using the Naval Postgraduate School

Pan-Arctic Coupled Ice-Ocean Model ........................................................................................................59 Alaskan Stream Circulation and Exchanges Through the Aleutian Island Passes: 1979-2003 Model

Results ...........................................................................................................................................................60 SOFTWARE ENGINEERING Standards Interoperability: Application of Contemporary Software Assurance Standards to the

Evolution of Legacy Software .....................................................................................................................61 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING Isolated Word Recognition from In-Ear Microphone Data Using Hidden Markov Models (HMM).............63 Operation of Long-Haul Non-LOS Wireless Tactical Networks......................................................................64

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MASTER OF ARTS NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS Russia’s National Interests in the Transcaucasus and the U.S. Policy: Implications for Armenian

National Security ..........................................................................................................................................67 Islamic Revival in the Balkans ............................................................................................................................67 Military Force and Culture Change: Systems, Narratives, and the Social Transmission of Behavior in

Counter-Terrorism Strategy .........................................................................................................................68 The Mechanics of Russian Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia – Regional Hegemony

or Neo-Imperialism?.....................................................................................................................................68 Contemporary Radical Islam as a Consequence of Traditional Legacies and Globalization?

A Case Study of the Southern Philippines ..................................................................................................69 The Elephant in the Room: Religious Extremism in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict .....................................69 The Sky is Not Falling: Regional Reaction to a Nuclear-Armed Iran ..............................................................70 U.S. and Russian Strategic Perspectives of Iran: Different Views of Nuclear Proliferation ..........................70 The Growing Relationship Between South Korea and China: Consequences for North Korea .....................71 Implications of Societal Fragmentation for State Formation: Can Democracy Succeed in Afghanistan?.....71 Afghanistan’s Constitutions: A Comparative Study and Their Implications for Afghan Democratic

Development .................................................................................................................................................72 The Holy See and the Middle East: The Public Diplomacy of Pope John Paul II...........................................72 Coercion and Governance in China: Analyzing Civil-Military Relations in the Post-Deng Era Using

Multiah Alagappa’s Analytical Framework................................................................................................73 Free Trade Area of the Americas: A Three Level Analysis ..............................................................................73 Bigger Shield: Alliance, Politics, and Military Change in Japan......................................................................74 SECURITY STUDIES Towards a Homeland Security Strategy for the United States Virgin Islands: The Terrorism and

Natural Disasters Planning Group ...............................................................................................................75 Strengthening and Expanding the Citizen Corps ...............................................................................................75 State and Urban Area Homeland Security Strategy V3.0: Evolving Strategic Planning ................................76 Strategy for Local Law Enforcement Agencies to Improve Collection, Analysis, and Dissemination

of Terrorist Information................................................................................................................................76 21st Century Policing: The Institutionalization of Homeland Security in Local Law Enforcement

Organizations ................................................................................................................................................77 The National Response System: The Need to Leverage Networks and Knowledge .......................................77 The Federal Role in the Security of Religious Venues in America ..................................................................78 The Florida Air National Guard: A Model for Recruiting ................................................................................78 Enterprise Policing for the September 12 Era ....................................................................................................79 Republic of Moldova and the Transnistrian Conflict: The Impact of NATO and the European Union

Enlargements on the Dispute Resolution Process ......................................................................................79 The Intelligence Phenomenon in a New Democratic Milieu. Romania – A Case Study ................................80 State Tools to Update and Strengthen Statutes for Agriculture Emergencies..................................................80 Policing the Homeland: Choosing the Intelligent Option..................................................................................81 Interagency Collaboration Challenges Among Homeland Security Disciplines in Urban Areas...................81 In Support of Civil Authority: Is the Role of Military Support for National Security in Jeopardy? ..............82 Public-Private Defense Partnering in Critical Infrastructure Protection ..........................................................82 Enhancing Homeland Security Efforts by Building Strong Relationships Between the Muslim

Community and Local Law Enforcement ...................................................................................................83 Quo Vadis Nato? Collective Defense, Collective Security, and the Euro-Atlantic Realm in the

Second Decade of the 21st Century.............................................................................................................83 Public Health Specializations and Education Needs to Support Homeland Security......................................84 Using Surveillance Camera Systems to Monitor Public Domains: Can Abuse Be Prevented?......................84 Ringing the Bell; Sounding the Alarm: A Proposal for the Simultaneous Advancement of Security and

Privacy ...........................................................................................................................................................85 Essential Elements for Preparedness Planning...................................................................................................85 Modeling the U.S. Border Patrol Tucson Sector for the Deployment and Operations of Border

Security Forces..............................................................................................................................................86

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A Model Strategy and Policy for Screening Firefighter Candidates ................................................................86 Human Rights and Internal Security in Malaysia: Rhetoric and Reality..........................................................86 On Strategy: The War on Terrorism in Context.................................................................................................87 Protecting Our Waters Within: A Vulnerability Assessment of Maritime Infrastructure within

Coast Guard Sector Ohio Valley .................................................................................................................88 Assessment of Public Health Infrastructure to Determine Public Health Preparedness..................................88 Utilizing Biological Models to Determine the Recruitment of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) by

Modeling the Voting Behavior of Sinn Féin...............................................................................................89 “Dirty Bomb” Attack: Assessing New York City’s Level of Preparedness from a First Responder’s

Perspective ....................................................................................................................................................89 Deployment of State Traffic Law Enforcement Officers for Homeland Security ...........................................90 Radio Interoperability: Addressing the Real Reasons We Don’t Communicate Well During

Emergencies ..................................................................................................................................................90 Building a Better Mouse Trap: Increasing Law Enforcement Counter Terrorism Capabilities Through

Consolidation ................................................................................................................................................91 Implementing Maritime Domain Awareness .....................................................................................................91 Terrorism Awareness and Education as a Prevention Strategy for First Responders......................................92 STUDENT INDEX ..............................................................................................................................................93 ADVISOR INDEX...............................................................................................................................................95 INFORMATION ON OBTAINING AN NPS THESIS....................................................................................97

MASTER

OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

MASTER

OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

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LONG-TERM MILITARY CONTINGENCY OPERATIONS; IDENTIFYING THE FACTORS AFFECTING BUDGETING IN ANNUAL OR SUPPLEMENTAL APPROPRIATIONS

Amanda B. Evans-Captain, United States Air Force Master of Business Administration-March 2006

Advisors: Philip Candreva, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Jerry McCaffery, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

Generally in the past, after initial funding was provided by supplemental appropriations, the continuing costs of long-term military operations were built into the annual baseline budget. After four and a half years fighting the Global War on Terrorism, funding the U.S. military effort remains under emergency designation, funded with supplemental appropriations, despite clear congressional directive to build it in the annual baseline budget request. The factors affecting this decision are examined through a comparative analysis of the current conflict and other long-term military operations in the past 60 years. The results show that planning, timing, accountability, visibility, politics and policy, stakeholder influence, military objectives, and fear of change are the most important factors. These findings can help stakeholders shape funding strategy. KEYWORDS: Annual Budget Appropriations, Supplemental Appropriations, Baseline, Emergency, Global War on Terrorism, Long-Term Contingency Operation Funding, War Budget

A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF RETIREMENT INTENTIONS OF ENLISTED NAVAL RESERVISTS

JoAnn M. Fifield-Lieutenant, United States Naval Reserve Master of Business Administration-March 2006

Advisors: Kathryn M. Kocher, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Stephen L. Mehay, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

This study analyzes the responses of enlisted reserve personnel to the 2000-2001 Navy Reserve Career Decision Survey using multivariate logistic regression. Enlisted Naval Reservists’ retirement intentions are assessed with respect to the effect of demographic and military background characteristics, unit-type, and reserve experiences. Among the reserve experience variables, perceptions about the importance of training, accomplishment recognition, family impact, civilian job impact, education benefits, leadership, career development, personal meaning, and time spent working in a primary designator are all significant influences on career plans. Marital status, pay grade, time in the Selected Reserves, and prior duty status are also significant predictors. While unit type and rating variables are not individually significant, each group of variables is jointly significant. Marital status, pay grade, time in service, and reserve experience variables have the greatest effects on a respondent’s intent to stay to retirement and should be considered when evaluating and creating retention policies and/or programs for the Naval Reserve organization. It is recommended that follow-on studies be conducted to compare the 2005 responses with the 2000-2001 responses to the Reserve Career Decision Survey to provide a better understanding of enlisted reserve retirement intentions in the 9/11 military environment. KEYWORDS: Navy Reserve Retention, Reserve Retention, Military Retention, Navy Reserve Manpower, Attrition

ANALYSIS OF OPERATIONAL MANNING REQUIREMENTS AND DEPLOYMENT PROCEDURES FOR UNMANNED SURFACE VEHICLES ABOARD U.S. NAVY SHIPS

Wayne H. Gayle-Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration-March 2006

Advisor: William D. Hatch, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Second Reader: Cary Simon, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

This research is conducted per a Navy Warfare Development Center request that the Naval Postgraduate School update the Navy’s TACMEMO: Integration of UVs into Maritime Missions TM 3-22-5-W. Unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) are expected to becoming an integral part of the Navy’s maritime


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mission. To incorporate USVs into the fleet, manpower issues must be identified and resolved, i.e., manning requirements supporting USV operations; and analysis of the rate/rating, skill sets, training, and procedures required to operate and maintain USVs. The methodology includes Navy lessons learned, operation evaluation reports, and technical documentations from past and ongoing fleet employment of USVs to identify manning issues.

This research finds that current USV launch-and-recovery systems on host ships are personnel intensive compared to other available systems; knowledge, skills, and abilities required of USV support personnel are identified within the BM, EM, EN, ET (Surface), GM, IT, OS, STG (Surface) rating occupational standards, and it would be easier to train personnel from these ratings for USV support; and a formal training path should be established for USV operators. In consonance with Navy Human Capital direction, naval platforms must operate with reduced manning, however, operating and maintaining unmanned systems definitely requires trained and specialized personnel. KEYWORDS: Manpower, Manning, Personnel, Requirements, Unmanned Surface Vehicles, USV, Unmanned Surface Vehicle-Small, USV-S, Spartan Scout, Sea Fox, Remote Minehunting System, RMS, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities, KSA, Training

AN EXPLORATORY STUDY: FEMALE SURFACE WARFARE OFFICERS’ DECISION TO LEAVE THEIR COMMUNITY

Sharon L. Graham-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Master of Business Administration-March 2006

Advisors: Gail Fann Thomas, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Alice Crawford, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

The purpose of this exploratory study is to discover the reasons that female surface-warfare officers (SWOs) leave the surface-warfare officer community, and to identify paths that might encourage them to stay. Seven focus groups and nine interviews are used to gather qualitative data from three groups: 1) SWOs who had expressed intentions to leave the SWO community, 2) officers who had laterally transferred to another Navy community, and 3) individuals who had separated from the Navy. Altogether, 49 individuals participate in the study; 23 women and 26 men. Men are included to examine gender similarities and differences. Based on responses from all participants, six major themes emerge to explain why both male and female officers may leave the community: 1) inconsistent leadership, 2) negative aspects of the culture, 3) lack of passion, 4) inability to achieve work/life balance, 5) excessive work-hours, and 6) the mundane nature of some tasks. Only three themes emerge that are different for the women: 1) inflexibility of career for family planning, 2) lack of positive senior role models, and 3) a perception of discrimination, sexual harassment, and lack of respect for women. It appears that the Navy may need to attack the retention problem on a number of fronts if it wishes to improve the retention rate for women. Continuation pay, which is currently a primary lever for increasing retention, was not viewed favorably as a means for getting male or female officers to stay in the community. The thesis concludes with recommendations for further research. KEYWORDS: Navy, Officer Career, Retention, Female, Women, Surface Warfare, Leadership, Culture, Work-Life Balance, Human Resource Development Process, Separation

ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY IN A BUSINESS CASE ANALYSIS FOR IMPLEMENTING ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY ORDNANCE SURVEILLANCE

IN A MUNITIONS MANAGEMENT ENVIRONMENT Andrzej Kuklewski-Lieutenant, Polish Air Force Master of Business Administration-March 2006

Advisors: Daniel Nussbaum, Department of Operations Research William R. Gates, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

The purpose of this project is to support the Advanced Technology Ordnance Surveillance (ATOS) project office in conducting a return on investment (ROI) analysis.


5

The approach taken to support the ROI analysis is to build a model consistent with the need for a business-case analysis (BCA) for an ATOS Advanced Concept Technology Demonstration (ACTD), which allows generating the return on investment distribution, while also assuming a range of uncertain savings assumptions. Additionally, the model built requires testing with notional data in order to evaluate its functionality.

The results of this project are that an ROI model is built, tested, and proven to work, and the model is ready to be filled with real data and to work to support the ATOS pilot project. KEYWORDS: Radio Frequency Identification, Advance Technology Ordnance Surveillance, Return on Investment, Monte Carlo Analysis PERFORMANCE BASED LOGISTICS (PBL) FOR THE FA-18/S-3/P-3/C-2 AUXILIARY POWER

UNIT (APU) AT HONEYWELL: AN APPLIED ANALYSIS Clifford J. Landreth-Major, United States Marine Corps

Master of Business Administration-March 2006 Richard H. Wilhelm, II-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

Master of Business Administration-December 2005 Laura L. Corporon-Major, United States Marine Corps

Master of Business Administration-March 2006 Advisors: Donald R. Eaton, RADM, USN (Ret.), Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

Keebom Kang, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Rene Rendon, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

The purpose of this MBA project is to evaluate and assess the metrics, incentives, and other terms and conditions of the performance-based logistics (PBL) contract between Naval Aviation Inventory Control Point (NAVICP) and Honeywell in support of FA-18/S-3/P-3/C-2 Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) in order to determine if the contractual terms and conditions established are effective in facilitating and encouraging the full potential of PBL savings and improved performance. PBL is an acquisition reform initiative intended to improve weapon system logistics with the goals of 1) compressing the supply chain, 2) eliminating non-value added steps, 3) reducing total ownership costs, 4) improving weapon system readiness and reliability, and 5) reducing logistics footprint. PBL entails buying measurable outcomes with metrics based on war-fighter stated performance requirements. The war-fighter requirements should be linked to metrics and metrics should be linked to contract incentives. An additional element of PBL is gain sharing, which ensures the contractor’s profit and the government’s increased performance at a reduced cost. Based on the elements of PBL, the objectives of this project include 1) comparing the actions/activities/accomplishments of the contract to the goals of PBL, 2) measuring and appraising the attainment of those goals 3) providing information about the major factors causing the observed effects on the above, and 4) identifying and analyzing the metrics and incentives for their effectiveness in achieving the desired outcomes.

In meeting the objectives of this report, the findings indicate that non-value added steps were eliminated, and there were potential reductions in the logistics footprint. On the other hand, the supply chain was not compressed; aircraft maintenance costs did not decrease; and more importantly, the APU reliability for the FA-18, S-3, and C-2 did not improve. For the P-3, reliability improved by 7% to 19%, but not 300% per the contract guarantee. This research also determined that the reliability metric was inappropriate for measuring and tracking APU reliability improvements. Additionally, disincentives were provided for not meeting contract requirements, with the only contract incentive being the award term contract arrangement. This thesis provides recommendations specific to the APU total-logistic-support contract and other recommendations for other PBL applications. These recommendations include alternative contract pricing and gain sharing methods and appropriate metrics and incentives that reflect the true definition of PBL. KEYWORDS: Acquisition Principles, Supply Chain Management, Performance-Based Logistics, PBL, Contracting, Incentives, Metrics


6

ANALYSIS OF PERCEIVED FINANCIAL CONDITIONS OF U.S. NAVY ENLISTED PERSONNEL

Steven M. Milinkovich-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Master of Business Administration-March 2006

Advisors: Kathryn M. Kocher, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Mark J. Eitelberg, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

This study evaluates demographic and attitudinal characteristics that explain variations in perceived financial condition (PFC) of Navy enlisted personnel using data from the 1999 Department of Defense (DoD) Survey of Active Duty Personnel (ADS). The ADS includes questions about background information, economic issues, family information, programs and services, military life, career information, and assignment information. Two ordinal logistic regression models are estimated and used to explain variations in the PFC levels of married and single marital status samples of 2,362 and 1,309 U.S. Navy enlisted personnel, respectively. Results provide evidence that PFC levels are significantly affected by dependents, job satisfaction, household residence type, race/ethnicity, time away from home port (married only), education (single only), pay grade, age, and pecuniary characteristics (gross income, savings, unsecured debt). Further study is recommended to incorporate PFCs into cost estimates addressing the full impact of financial problems. Additional study is also recommended to refine demographic profiles in targeting persons who may benefit most from financial counseling, military housing, and DoD college programs. KEYWORDS: Manpower, Productivity, Human Capital, Personal Finance

DETERMINING PERSONNEL ACCESSION REQUIREMENTS FOR MEDICAL SERVICE CORPS HEALTH CARE ADMINISTRATORS USING A STEADY STATE ANALYSIS

Vance T. Vogel-Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration-March 2006

Advisors: Anke Richter, Defense Resources Management Institute Kathryn M. Kocher, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

A Markov model is used to determine the optimal number of Medical Service Corps Health Care Administrator officers the Navy must access each year in order to maintain a desired end-strength. The Markov model identifies the flow of Ensigns through Lieutenant Commanders using sixteen-year data. Five scenarios are analyzed to determine the most qualified method in determining accession levels. Optimization is achieved by changing with distribution of accessions sources and recruiting ranks. The solver scenario provides the alternative with the least amount of underage and overage when comparing the force structure to the predicted values. A four-year historical review identifies that the current business practices will not allow for rank steady states to be reached. A few significant characteristics are determined to influence retention at seven and ten year periods. The characteristic of primary concern, commissioning source, is determined to be significant. A survival analysis identifies that the In-Service Procurement Program has a different survival function than other sources. Increased variations between the current force structure plan and the predicted Markov model outcomes suggest that greater efficiency could be obtained in future years. This Markov model can be used as a tool for accessioning to improving extended forecasts. KEYWORDS: Excel, Markov, Modeling, Vacancy, Replace, Manpower Planning, Personnel Flows, Spreadsheet Modeling, Manpower Forecasting, Stock, Survival Analysis, Solver, Transition Matrix


7

VERTICAL INTEGRATION AND THE MILITARY – A STRATEGIC APPROACH TO THE OUTSOURCING DECISIONS IN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Thomas H. Wild-Commander, German Navy Master of Business Administration-March 2006

Advisors: Peter J. Coughlan, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Rene Rendon, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

It is a common belief that government organizations are generally less effective and efficient than commercial entities. Among the prominent problems that need to be addressed in this context is the process leading to a decision regarding how to source activities. Consequently, current publications and laws require government activities to compete with commercial contractors. Also, a preference for outsourcing military activities is often expressed.

This MBA project investigates how applicable economic principles that govern sourcing decisions in the commercial world are to the military. It further reviews the laws that regulate the decision making process for the military. The project then evaluates how these different factors should impact the process and whether recent outsourcing decisions, especially for Operation Iraqi Freedom, reflect valid economic criteria.

The MBA project determines that valid economic principles are applicable to the military, but they are not always used correctly or to the advantage of the government. Additional socio-economic and military factors also have a significant influence and need to be weighed against the economic principles, stressing distinctions between the military and a commercial company. Those differences and their potential effects are not adequately addressed in the publications regulating the decision making process. KEYWORDS: Outsourcing in the Department of Defense, Business Strategy for Vertical Integration, Contractors on the Battlefield, Case Analysis

9

MASTER OF SCIENCE

Applied Physics Computer Science

Contract Management Defense Analysis

Electrical Engineering Engineering Acoustics

Human Systems Integration Information Operations

Information Technology Management Management

Mechanical Engineering Meteorology

Meteorology and Physical Oceanography Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation

Operations Research Physical Oceanography Software Engineering Systems Engineering

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN APPLIED PHYSICS

11

MODELING AND SIMULATION OF THE FREE ELECTRON LASER AND RAILGUN ON AN ELECTRIC NAVAL SURFACE PLATFORM

Oscar E. Bowlin-Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., Old Dominion University, 1998

Master of Science in Applied Physics-March 2006 Advisor: William B. Colson, Department of Physics

Second Reader: Robert L. Armstead, Department of Physics The free-electron laser (FEL) and rail gun are electric weapons that will require a significant amount of stored energy for operation. These types of weapons are ideal for use onboard an all-electric ship. An investigation is made of the effects these weapons will have on a proposed electrical system architecture using simulation modeling. Specifically, this thesis identifies possible design weaknesses and shows where further research and modeling is needed in order to ensure the proper integration of these electric weapons onboard an all-electric ship. The integration of these electric weapon systems with the power systems on electric ships will have an impact on naval operations. Several scenarios concerning specific naval missions are investigated using simulation software to understand the impact and limitations on the electric system using these new electric weapons. KEYWORDS: Free Electron Laser, FEL, Railgun, Simulink, Directed Energy, Flywheels, Capacitors, SMES, Batteries, Integrated Propulsion System, AMFRC

SIMULATION OF THE ACOUSTIC PULSE EXPECTED FROM THE INTERACTION OF ULTRA-HIGH ENERGY NEUTRINOS AND SEAWATER

Michael S. Gruell-Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., George Washington University, 1999

Master of Science in Applied Physics-March 2006 Advisor: Daphne Kapolka, Department of Physics

The purpose of this thesis is to design, build, and test a device capable of simulating the acoustic pulse expected from the interaction between an ultra-high energy (UHE) neutrino and seawater. When a neutrino interacts with seawater, the reaction creates a long, narrow shower of sub-atomic particles. The energy from this reaction causes nearly instantaneous heating of the seawater on an acoustic timescale. The acoustic pulse created by the resulting thermal expansion of the water is predicted to be bipolar in shape. This work is undertaken to support a Stanford experiment, the Study of Acoustic Ultra-High Energy Neutrino Detection (SAUND), which uses existing hydrophone arrays to detect UHE neutrinos from the acoustic pulse generated by their rare interactions with seawater.

The device fabricated for this thesis uses the discharge current from a 4� F capacitor charged to 2.5kV to heat the seawater between two copper plates. The anode and cathode plates of this “zapper” design are 6 cm in diameter and 20 cm apart. The acoustic pulse generated by the zapper is measured both in a small test tank at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) and at the acoustic test facility at the Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Keyport. Bipolar pulses observed at NPS on two separate test dates have average pulse lengths of 110s +/- 10s and 160 +/- 20s and average amplitudes at 1m of 1.9 +/- 0.3Pa and 4.7 +/- 0.6Pa. The average pulse length recorded at Keyport is 49 +/- 6s and the average amplitude is 6.4 +/- 0.9Pa. The pulse lengths recorded at NPS are reasonably consistent with theory, however the pressure amplitudes are 100 times lower than predicted. The cause of the amplitude discrepancy is not completely understood at this time. KEYWORDS: Neutrino Detection, Neutrino Acoustic Signature, Electric Discharge Through Seawater

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN COMPUTER SCIENCE

13

A SOFTWARE-BASED NETWORK INFRASTRUCTURE FOR MOBILE AD HOC DATA NETWORKING IN SUPPORT OF SMALL TACTICAL UNITS USING THE SINCGARS RADIO

Steven R. Brand-Captain, United States Marine Corps B.A., Ohio State University, 1998 B.S., Ohio State University, 1998

Master of Science in Computer Science-March 2006 Advisors: Geoffrey Xie, Department of Computer Science

John Gibson, Department of Computer Science Currently, there is no infrastructure in place to provide data networking capabilities to ground-based tactical units below the battalion level. Legacy voice-centric radios, organic to these units, possess no inherent packet switched networking capability. The infrastructure for such a network is presented in this thesis.

Specifically, with the SINCGARS providing the Physical Layer, a software-implemented Data Link Layer is presented. Both an Aloha-like and a Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) protocol are implemented for media access control. Additionally, a novel routing algorithm, Expected Relative Positioning, with Congestion Avoidance (ERP/CA), is presented as the Network Layer protocol. This protocol is optimized for military application, using policies regarding movement and positioning within formations to inform its routing selections.

Finally, a prototype application is presented to demonstrate the use of the proposed small tactical unit, mobile ad hoc network infrastructure. The application is used in the functional testing of the layer two and layer three protocols. Results of the functional testing are presented. KEYWORDS: Mobile Ad Hoc Networks, Tactical Networks, MANET, Routing Protocol, Expected Relative Positioning, SINCGARS, Data Link, Wireless, Media Access Control, ERP/CA

ANALYSIS AND DESIGN OF A COOPERATIVE WEAPON ASSIGNMENT MODULE FOR ADVANCED BATTLE MANAGER OF A BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM

Willie D. Brown-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., Florida A&M University, 1996

Master of Science in Computer Science-March 2006 Advisors: Man-Tak Shing, Department of Computer Science

James Bret Michael, Department of Computer Science The United States is in the midst of an ambitious effort to build and deploy a wide range of ballistic missile defense systems. These ballistic missile defense systems will be effective against a host of current and postulated threats from ballistic missiles. In this thesis study, researchers explore the process of enhancing the effectiveness of weapon assignment for a system of systems. First, analysis of information is drawn from the current proposed system of the Advanced Battle Manager (ABM) and its construction from the ground up. This research analyzes two Ballistic Missile Defense Systems (BMDS), Aegis and Patriot respectively, their attributes, and their current and future roles in a Global Ballistic Defense Missile System. In addition, this thesis presents a software architecture for the ABM weapon assignment component module, with object oriented design feasibility with integration as the key ingredient. This research contributes to highlighting some shortfalls in efforts to integrate capabilities and desired capabilities as the missile threat evolves. Recommendations are presented for follow-on research to improve ABM’s weapon assignment capabilities. KEYWORDS: Design, Analysis, Weapon Assignment, Aegis, Patriot, Layered Architecture

COMPUTER SCIENCE

14

BORDER MONITORING BASED ON A NOVEL PASSIVE-INFRARED DETECTION MODEL Iskender Dikmen-Lieutenant Junior Grade, Turkish Navy

B.S., Turkish Naval Academy, 2000 Master of Science in Computer Science-March 2006

Master of Science in Information Technology Management-March 2006 Advisor: Geoffrey Xie, Department of Computer Science

Second Reader: Alexander Bordetsky, Department of Information Sciences Improvements in technology have enabled the development of cost-effective, low-power, multifunctional wireless sensor nodes. Such nodes are used in various applications, including surveillance and intrusion detection. In this research, experiments are conducted in order to discover the detection probability of the Crossbow MSP410 mote sensor nodes. A new passive-infrared (PIR) detection model is developed, which has a high probability detection region and a low probability detection region, for MSP410 mote sensor nodes based on the observed probabilities. The PIR model is used in the proposed sensor placement strategy for MSP410 mote sensor nodes intended for a border-monitoring scenario. The detection probability of the low probability region of the new PIR detection model is increased by overlapping with the low probability region of the neighboring sensor nodes in the proposed sensor placement strategy. KEYWORDS: Wireless Sensor Networks, Sensor Placement Strategy, PIR Detection Model

COMPARISONS OF ATTACKS ON HONEYPOTS WITH THOSE ON REAL NETWORKS Binh T. Duong-Civilian, Federal Cyber Corps B.S., Cal State University-Long Beach, 2001

Master of Science in Computer Science-March 2006 Advisor: Neil C. Rowe, Department of Computer Science

Second Reader: J.D. Fulp, Department of Computer Science Honeypots are computer systems deliberately designed to be attack targets, mainly to learn about cyber-attacks and attacker behavior. When implemented as part of a security posture, honeypots also protect real networks by acting as a decoy, deliberately confusing potential attackers as to the real data. The objective of this research is to compare attack patterns against a honeypot to those against a real network, the network of the Naval Postgraduate School. Collection of suspicious-event data requires the implementation and setup of a honeypot, in addition to the installation and use of an intrusion-detection system. A statistical analysis is conducted across suspicious-event data recorded from a honeypot and from a real network. Metrics used in this study are applied to the alerts generated from Snort 2.4.3, an open-source intrusion detection system. Results show differences between the honeypot and the real network data, which need further experiments to understand. Both the honeypot and the real network data show much variability at the start of the experiment period and then a decrease in the number of alerts in the later period of the experiment. Researchers conclude that after the initial probing and reconnaissance is complete, the vulnerabilities of the network are learned and therefore fewer alerts occur; but more specific signatures are then aimed at exploiting the network. KEYWORDS: Honeypots, Intrusion Detection System, Deception, Cyber Attack Patterns

AN IMPLEMENTATION OF REMOTE APPLICATION SUPPORT IN A MULTILEVEL ENVIRONMENT

Melissa Egan-DoD Civilian B.A., Pomona College, 2003

Master of Science in Computer Science-March 2006 Advisors: Cynthia Irvine, Department of Computer Science

Thuy Nguyen, Department of Computer Science There is a growing need for high-assurance architectures that support mandatory confidentiality and integrity policies. One such architecture currently under development is the Monterey Security Architecture

COMPUTER SCIENCE

15

(MYSEA), a distributed multilevel secure (MLS) computing environment that integrates untrusted commercial off-the-shelf components with specialized high-assurance elements.

To ensure that information is purged from untrusted client PCs between sessions at different security levels, MYSEA clients are diskless. Therefore, it is desirable for thin MYSEA clients to be able to remotely execute server-resident applications, which may in turn request access to data residing elsewhere on the MLS Local Area Network (LAN). This functionality must be implemented in such a way that the access control policies of the multilevel environment are maintained. Working from a detailed design for remote application support, this thesis involves the implementation and testing of the remote application support functionality. Beyond the implementation of remote application support itself, this thesis involves the porting of a Trivial File Transfer Protocol (TFTP) client and the development of a simple web client as proof-of-concept remote applications, as well as the creation of a Common Gateway Interface (CGI) mechanism for invoking those remote applications from a client web browser. This research is relevant to the Department of Defense (DoD) Global Information Grid’s vision of assured information sharing. KEYWORDS: Multilevel Security, MLS, Information Assurance, IA, Monterey Security Architecture, MYSEA, Remote Application, Trusted Remote Session Management

THE DESIGN OF A STAND-ALONE DIVISION TACTICS SIMULATOR UTILIZING NON-PROPRIETARY (OPEN SOURCE) MEDIA AND ITERATIVE DEVELOPMENT

Ryan B. Ernst-Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A.S., Miami University, 1999

Master of Science in Computer Science-March 2006 Advisor: Rudy Darken, MOVES Institute (Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation)

Second Reader: Starr S. King, CAPT (Ret.), USN, Department of Operations Research Fleet maneuvers, or division tactics (DIVTACS), are achieved by a series of precision shipboard movements directed by an Officer in Tactical Control. Much like a precision drill team, DIVTACS training requires multiple ships underway in close proximity, often a rare commodity. Costs to conduct live training range from thousands (per evolution) to millions of dollars (to repair ships after a collision at-sea). Computer simulation opens the door to maximizing DIVTACS training, while mitigating risk.

The Navy spends in excess of $60 million per year on simulation-based training. Currently available simulators provide a DIVTACS capability by connecting several simulators together via a LAN. These simulators are cost prohibitive, ranging from $100,000 to millions of dollars per unit. They are manpower and maintenance intensive, requiring dedicated infrastructures, drastically limiting deploy-ability and reliability.

Open source applications are gaining considerable leverage in the commercial market and offer significant cost-reductions. This thesis explores the possibilities of open source development by providing a proof of concept division tactics simulator. Additional considerations are given to the extension of the simulator for use in surface tactics in general and areas of future research. KEYWORDS: Ship-Handling, Virtual Reality, Virtual Environment, Surface Warfare, Computer Simulation, Computer Graphics, Open Source, Division Tactics, DIVTACS, Fleet Maneuvers, Surface Tactics, Iterative Development

A SURVEY AND ANALYSIS OF ACCESS CONTROL ARCHITECTURES FOR EXTENSIBLE MARKUP LANGUAGE (XML) DATA

Mark J. Estlund-Major, United States Air Force B.A., University of Minnesota, 1995

Master of Science in Computer Science-March 2006 Advisors: Cynthia Irvine, Department of Computer Science

Timothy Levin, Department of Computer Science Extensible Markup Language (XML) has had a revolutionary effect on information technology. Both business and government have adopted XML as the format of choice for information sharing. Business uses XML to leverage the full potential of the Internet for e-commerce. The government wants to leverage the

COMPUTER SCIENCE

16

ability to share information across many platforms between divergent agencies. In particular, in August 2004, Executive Order (EO) 13356 called for improved sharing of terrorist information to protect Americans. XML provides a way to format information so that it is interoperable. The economic benefit of sharing data and resources is apparent. Sharing information between government agencies will assist in national security. However, there is still a requirement to control the flow and state of data. Therefore, access controls must be used to ensure data and information are protected. This thesis asks whether it is possible to provide a survey and analysis of how industry is enforcing access control on XML data, information, and documents that could serve as a foundation for XML security architectures for the government. KEYWORDS: XML, Access Control, XAMCL

AN ANALYSIS OF LINUX RAM FORENSICS Jorge M. Urrea-Civilian, Federal Cyber Corps

B.S., California Polytechnic State University, 2003 Master of Science in Computer Science-March 2006

Advisor: Chris Eagle, Department of Computer Science Second Reader: George Dinolt, Department of Computer Science

During a forensic investigation of a computer system, the ability to retrieve volatile information can be of critical importance. The contents of RAM could reveal malicious code running on the system that has been deleted from the hard drive or, better yet, that was never resident on the hard drive at all. RAM can also provide the programs most recently run and files most recently opened in the system. However, due to the nature of modern operating systems, these programs and files are not typically stored contiguously, which makes most retrieval efforts of files larger than one page size futile. To date, analysis of RAM images has been largely restricted to searching for ASCII string content, which typically only yields text information, such as document fragments, passwords, or scripts.

This thesis explores the memory management structures in a SUSE Linux system (kernel version 2.6.13-15) to make sense out of the chaos in RAM and facilitate the retrieval of files/programs larger than one page size. The analysis includes methods for incorporating swap space information for files that may not reside completely within physical memory.

The results of this thesis will become the basis of later research efforts in RAM forensics. This includes the creation of tools that will provide forensic analysts with a clear map of what is resident in the volatile memory of a system. KEYWORDS: Computer Forensics, Physical Memory Analysis, RAM Analysis, Volatile Memory

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN CONTRACT MANAGEMENT

17

MEASURING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE COMMUNICATIONS ELECTRONICS LIFE CYCLE MANAGEMENT COMMAND (CE-LCMC) INTERNSHIP PILOT TRAINING

PROGRAM Thomas Dick

Master of Science in Contract Management-March 2006 Jan Oberdick- DoD Civilian

Master of Science in Contract Management-March 2006 Jacqueline Hodge-DoD Civilian

Master of Science in Contract Management-March 2006 Advisors: Alice Crawford, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

Gail Fann Thomas, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy The objective of this research is twofold: one objective is to identify the challenges that face the Department of Defense (DoD) due to a younger, inexperienced workforce replacing a retiring experienced workforce. The second objective is to determine the effectiveness of the Pilot Training Program conducted at Communications Electronics Life Cycle Management Command (CE-LCMC) by conducting surveys among personnel involved in the program. Specifically, researchers review the approaches adopted by CE-LCMC Acquisition Center and provide an analysis of the perceived effectiveness of these programs. This research also provides recommendations for long-term improvement of the pilot intern training program conducted at CE-LCMC and at other acquisition centers. KEYWORDS: Interns, Training, Pilot Training, Acquisition

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS

19

ISLAMIC REVIVAL IN THE BALKANS Velko A. Attanassoff-Captain, Bulgarian Army

M.A., Bulgarian Military Academy “Vassil Levski,” 1998 Master of Science in Defense Analysis-March 2006

Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006 Advisors: Glenn Robinson, Department of Defense Analysis

Anne Marie Baylouny, Department of National Security Affairs The stance of the Balkans towards global Islamic extremism has been much discussed, but little subject to substantive comparative inquiry. In this thesis, social movement theory is utilized to analyze the relation between Islamic revivalism and the global Salafi jihad in the Balkans. Comparing Bosnia and Bulgaria, this research not only demonstrates the various manifestations of these phenomena, but also argues for a differentiated case-by-case approach when implementing the suggested analytical framework. The author effectively shows that the process of Islamic revivalism is mainly an imported phenomena maintained through financial and ideological support from the Middle East. The author also proves that there is no causal relationship between Islamic revivalism and global Salafi jihad. Yet, the findings of the case studies caution against the possibility of structural and ideological convergence of the two phenomena, which could effectively lead to the emergence of a permissive environment for the spread of global Salafi jihad. The author also argues that the current Islamic revival poses a security threat to the region due to its potential for developing into viable Islamic movements on the ground. The author concludes that to counter such security implications, the Balkan governments need to revisit their policies and adopt a proactive approach qualitatively different from the strategic framework of the U.S. Global War on Terrorism. KEYWORDS: Balkans, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Global Salafi Jihad, Global War on Terrorism, Islam, Islamic Radicalism, Islamic Revival, Islamic Transnational Advocacy Network, Islamism, Middle East, Muslim Minorities, Social Movement, Terrorism

A LEGACY OF EXCELLENCE: THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE (USAF) WEAPONS SCHOOL’S CHALLENGE TO MAINTAIN STANDARDS

James R. Rosales-Major, United States Air Force B.S., United States Air Force Academy, 1993

Master of Science in Defense Analysis-March 2006 Advisor: Anna Simons, Department of Defense Analysis

Second Reader: Brian Greenshields, Department of Defense Analysis This thesis investigates the effects of resource constraints on the United States Air Force Weapons School (USAFWS). Highly regarded as the Combat Air Force’s (CAF) Center of Excellence, the USAFWS is responsible for producing a weapons officer who is finely tuned in the skills of communication, integration of joint forces, large force mission planning, training plan development, and tactical leadership. The CAF demands a weapons officer who is highly skilled and possesses traits and values above the norm. The USAFWS has translated these objectives into an exemplary standard that pervades the institution and its graduates.

During this period of transformation and global war (circa 2005), the CAF is continually seeking ways to “do more with less.” This thesis provides a framework for assessing whether this is possible without adversely affecting the USAFWS’s training standard. The graduate can be seen as a product of objectives (ends) plus training concepts (ways) plus resources (means). All three components are rigorously examined. Everything under the USAFWS’s control has been optimized, leaving the shrinking pool of resources as a troubling and testing, but reversible, problem.

DEFENSE ANALYSIS

20

KEYWORDS: Weapons School, USAFWS, Nellis AFB, Syllabus, Air Force Training, Effects Based Operations, Strategy

COLLABORATIVE NETWORK EVOLUTION: THE LOS ANGELES TERRORISM EARLY WARNING GROUP

Sunchlar M. Rust-Major, United States Air Force B.S., United States Air Force Academy, 1992

Master of Science in Defense Analysis-March 2006 Advisor: Erik Jansen, Department of Information Sciences

Second Reader: Robert O’Connell, DoD Contractor This study bridges the narrow divide between collaboration theory and networking, and views organizations as a source of collaborative processes. Social network analysis is applied to determine how the Los Angeles Terrorism Early Warning (TEW) group evolved from a small group of actors to a diverse, countywide network bridging public-private, local-state-federal, and functional divides. The TEW demonstrates an example of organizational problem solving where a network facilitated collaboration in a wickedly complex and uncertain environment. The network’s consensus-based innovation, collaborative processes, and meta-leadership helped the network evolve. These factors strengthened the collaborative ethos of the network and set the stage for success as the network meets current and future challenges. The TEW’s bottom-up, consensus-based network expansion contrasts sharply with top-down collaborative approaches, such as the creation of the National Counterterrorism Center and the Department of Homeland Security. Lessons from the TEW’s well-paced evolution provide insight into how to facilitate collaborative action and build collaborative capacity for the future. KEYWORDS: Terrorism Early Warning Group, TEW, Collaboration, Information Sharing, Social Network Analysis

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING

21

RECOGNITION OF IN-EAR MICROPHONE SPEECH DATA USING MULTI-LAYER NEURAL NETWORKS

Gokhan Bulbuller-Lieutenant Junior Grade, Turkish Navy B.S., Turkish Naval Academy, 2000

Master of Science in Electrical Engineering-March 2006 Advisors: Monique P. Fargues, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Ravi Vaidyanathan, Department of Systems Engineering Speech collected through a microphone placed in front of the mouth has been the primary source of data collection for speech recognition. There are only a few speech recognition studies using speech collected from the human ear canal. In this study, a speech recognition system is presented, specifically, an isolated word recognizer that uses speech collected from the external auditory canals of the subjects via an in-ear microphone. Currently, the vocabulary is limited to seven words that can be used as control commands for a wide variety of applications. The speech segmentation task is achieved by using the short-time signal energy parameter and the short-time energy-entropy feature (EEF), and by incorporating some heuristic assumptions. Multi-layer feed-forward neural networks with two-layer and three-layer network configurations are selected for the word recognition task and use real cepstrum (RC) and Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs) extracted from each segmented utterance as characteristic features for the word recognizer. Results show that the neural network configurations investigated are viable choices for this specific recognition task as the average recognition rates obtained with the MFCCs as input features for the two-layer and three-layer networks are 94.731% and 94.61%, respectively, on the data investigated. Average recognition rates obtained using the RCs as features on the same network configurations are 86.252% and 86.7%, respectively. KEYWORDS: Speech Recognition, Isolated Word Recognition, In-Ear Microphone, External Auditory Canal, Multi-Layer Neural Networks, Real Cepstrum, Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients, End Point Detection, Short-Time Energy, Energy-Entropy Feature

SIMULATION OF PHYSICAL AND MEDIA ACCESS CONTROL (MAC) LAYER FOR SCALABLE WIRELESS SENSOR NETWORKS Daniel Kim Boon Chia-Singapore Ministry of Defense

B.Eng., National University of Singapore, 1996 M.Eng., National University of Singapore, 1996

Master of Science in Electrical Engineering-March 2006 Advisors: Tri. T. Ha, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Weilian Su , Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering In this thesis, the resilience of wireless sensor networks is investigated. A key concept is that scale-free network principles can be adapted to artificially create resilient wireless sensor networks. As scale-free networks are known to be resilient to errors but vulnerable to attack, a strategy using “cold-start” diversity is proposed to reduce the vulnerability to attacks. The IEEE 802.15.4 MAC and ZigBee protocols are investigated for their ability to form resilient clusters. This investigation reveals that deficiencies exist in these protocols, and the possibility of self-directed and attack-directed denial-of-service is significant. Through insights gained, techniques are recommended to augment the protocols, increasing their resilience without major changes to the standard itself. Since both topological and protocol resilience properties are investigated, results reveal important insights. Simulation of the physical and media access control layers using ns-2 is carried out to validate key concepts and approach.

ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING

22

KEYWORDS: Wireless Sensor Networks, Resilience, Scale-Free Networks, NS-2, IEEE 802.15.4, ZigBee, Denial-of-Service, Topology Resilience

RF CHARACTERISTICS OF MICA-Z WIRELESS SENSOR NETWORK MOTES Swee Jin Koh-Republic of Singapore Defense Science and Technology Agency

B.S., Nanyang Technological University, 1998 Master of Science in Electrical Engineering-March 2006

Advisors: Gurminder Singh, Department of Computer Science John C. McEachen, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Second Reader: Michael A. Morgan, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering This thesis studies the RF characteristics of Mica-Z wireless unattended sensor networks for military and commercial applications. Several experimental configurations are designed and carried out to observe and analyze the behavior of the Mica-Z sensor network. The Mica-Z mote’s propagation characteristics and network performance are measured under near free space, indoor, and outdoor environments to provide a comprehensive perspective of typical sensor network characteristics. Link break distance and re-association distance with their corresponding RF power measurements are recorded to determine the Mica-Z’s range characteristics under these different operating environments. Power loss exponents are also estimated to provide Mica-Z users a faster and more convenient way to estimate operating ranges in the different environments. A graphical numeric electromagnetic code (GNEC) simulation is also used to investigate some of the possible improvements that could be made to the existing Mica-Z antenna design to enhance the performance of the sensor network. This thesis substantiates the difficulties of operating such sensor networks in the most hostile environments. Although the measurements and analyses demonstrate that controlled deployment is possible to some extent, the effectiveness of deployment remains challenging, especially for the case of random ad-hoc deployment. KEYWORDS: Mica-Z, Friis Equation, Voltage Standing Wave Ratio, VSWR, Antenna Radiation Pattern, Graphical Numerical Electromagnetic Code, GNEC, Path Loss Exponent, Break and Re-associate Distance

ISOLATED WORD RECOGNITION FROM IN-EAR MICROPHONE DATA USING HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS (HMM)

Remzi Serdar Kurcan-Lieutenant Junior Grade, Turkish Navy B.S., Turkish Naval Academy, 1999

Master of Science in Electrical Engineering-March 2006 Master of Science in Systems Engineering-March 2006

Advisors: Monique P. Fargues, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering David C. Jenn, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Second Reader: Ravi Vaidyanathan, Department of Systems Engineering This thesis is part of an ongoing, larger-scale research study started in 2004 at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS). The aim of the study is to develop a speech-driven human-machine interface for the operation of semi-autonomous military robots in noisy operational environments. Earlier work included collecting a small database of isolated word utterances, seven words from 20 adult subjects, using an in-ear microphone. The research conducted here develops a speaker-independent, isolated word recognizer from these acoustic signals based on a discrete-observation Hidden Markov Model (HMM).

The study implements the HMM-based isolated word recognizer in three steps. The first step performs the endpoint detection and speech segmentation by using short-term temporal analysis. The second step includes speech feature extraction using static and dynamic Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) parameters and vector quantization of continuous-valued speech features. Finally, the last step involves the discrete-observation HMM-based classifier for isolated word recognition. Experimental results show the average classification performance to be around 92.77%. The most significant result of this study is that the acoustic signals originating from speech organs and collected within the external ear canal via the in-ear microphone can be used for isolated word recognition.

The second dataset, collected under low signal-to-noise ratio conditions with additive noise, results in 79% recognition accuracy in the HMM-based classifier. Researchers also compare the classification results


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of the data collected within the ear canal and outside the mouth via the same microphone. Average classification rates obtained for the data collected outside the mouth show significant performance degradation (down to 63%) over that observed with the data collected from within the ear canal (down to 86%). Recall that the ear canal dampens high frequencies. As a result, the HMM model derived for the data with dampened higher frequencies does not accurately fit the data collected outside the mouth, resulting in degraded recognition performances. KEYWORDS: In-Ear Microphone, Isolated Word Recognition, IWR, Short-Term Energy, STE, Zero-Crossing Rate, ZCR, Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients, MFCC, LPC-Derived Cepstral Coefficients, LPC-CC, Vector Quantization, VQ, K-Means Clustering Algorithm, Hidden Markov Models, HMM, Forward-Backward Algorithm, Baum-Welch Re-Estimation Algorithm, Viterbi Algorithm

SENSOR SYNCHRONIZATION, GEOLOCATION, AND WIRELESS COMMUNICATION IN A SHIPBOARD OPPORTUNISTIC ARRAY Yong Loke-Major, Republic of Singapore Navy

M.Eng., University of London, 1997 Master of Science in Electrical Engineering-March 2006

Advisor: David C. Jenn, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Second Reader: Michael A. Morgan, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

A wirelessly networked, opportunistic, digital-array radar (WNODAR) is an integrated ship-wide digital phased array, where the array elements are placed at available open areas over the entire surface of the platform. The array elements are self-standing digital transmit/receive (T/R) modules with no hardwire connections other than prime power. All control and digitized signals are passed wirelessly between the elements and a central signal processor.

This research investigates the problem of integrating the array elements through the design of a wireless synchronization and geolocation network. Phase synchronization of array elements is possible using a simple synchronization circuit. A technical survey of geolocation techniques is performed, and performance curves for the WNODAR operating under different sea-state conditions are obtained. Analysis and simulation results suggest that a position location scheme to correct for dynamic effects of hull deflection is not absolutely necessary for an array operating at a VHF or lower UHF frequency. Finally, a design of the demonstration T/R module is proposed. Based on projected communication requirements, the full-scale WNODAR demands a 3.7 Gb/s data transmission rate. The multi-input multi-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) approach has been identified as a promising solution to achieve gigabit transmission rates. KEYWORDS: Phased Array, Opportunistic Phased Array, Aperstructure, Radar, Transmitter, Receiver, Phase Synchronization, Sensor Geolocation, Wireless Communication, COTS

POWER LOSSES AND THERMAL MODELING OF A VOLTAGE SOURCE INVERTER Michael C. Oberdorf-Lieutenant, United States Navy

B.S., Penn State University, 1999 Master of Science in Electrical Engineering-March 2006

Advisor: Alexander Julian, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Second Reader: Robert Ashton, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

This thesis presents power loss and thermal models of a three phase insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT )voltage source inverter (VSI) used in the design of the 625KW Fuel Cell and Reformer demonstration, which is a top priority for the Office of Naval Research (ONR). The ability to generate thermal simulations of systems and to accurately predict a system’s response becomes essential in order to reduce the cost of design and production, increase reliability, quantify the accuracy of the estimated thermal impedance of an IGBT module, predict the maximum switching frequency without violating thermal limits, predict the time to shutdown on a Loss of Coolant Casualty (LOCC), and to quantify the characteristics of the heat-sink needed to dissipate the heat under worst case conditions. In order to accomplish this, a power loss and thermal model are created and simulated to represent a three-phase IGBT voltage source inverter in the lab.


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The simulated power loss and thermal model data are compared against the experimental data of a three-phase voltage source inverter set up in the Naval Postgraduate School Power Systems Laboratory. KEYWORDS: Thermal Modeling, IGBT, Power Losses Modeling, 625KW Fuel Cell and Reformer Demonstration for ONR

A PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF ROUTING PROTOCOLS FOR AD-HOC NETWORKS Ghee Lye Pore-Civilian, Republic of Singapore Defense Science and Technology Agency

B.Eng., Glasgow University-U.K., 1995 Master of Science in Electrical Engineering-March 2006

Advisor: John C. McEachen, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Second Reader: Weilian Su , Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

A mobile ad-hoc network (MANET) is an autonomous system of mobile nodes connected by wireless links. The performance of MANET is related to the efficiency of the routing protocols in adapting to frequently changing network topology and link status. This thesis addresses the issue by comparing the relative performance of three key ad-hoc routing protocols: Destination-Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV), Ad-Hoc On-Demand Distance Vector (AODV), and Optimized Link State Routing (OLSR). The protocols are tested based on two scenarios: tactical networks for ships and sensor-based network nodes. The objective is to validate the scalability and effectiveness of the protocols. Four performance metrics are measured by varying the maximum speed of mobile hosts, network size, and traffic load, to assess the routing capability and protocol efficiency. The simulation results indicate that AODV performs better than OSLR and DSDV in the first scenario. Although OLSR also performs relatively well, the associated high routing overhead is the dominant reason for not choosing it. On the other hand, OLSR emerges as the protocol of choice for sensor networks, where the high routing overhead is counteracted by consistently better performance in all other metrics. Due to the slow evolution of the sensor network topology, OLSR performs satisfactorily for best effort traffic but needs subtle adjustments to balance between latency and bandwidth to meet the requirements of delay-sensitive applications. Lastly, default parameters of OLSR are tweaked and recommendations are made with results that show promising ways to further improve the performance of OLSR in sensor networks, albeit not as significantly as in the tactical networks for the ship case. KEYWORDS: Ad-Hoc Networks, Wireless Networks, Mobile Networks, Routing Protocols, Network Simulation, Performance Evaluation

A GALVANICALLY ISOLATED POWER CONVERTER MODULE FOR DC ZONAL ELECTRIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

Stephen F. Sarar-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., University of Michigan, 1995

M.E.M., Old Dominion University, 2002 Master of Science in Electrical Engineering-March 2006

Advisors: Robert Ashton, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Andrew Parker, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

The United States Navy is currently in a state of transition from mechanical to electric propulsion. Future warships, such as the new destroyer class, will contain an Integrated Power System (IPS) that provides power to all propulsion and ship service loads. These warships will likely have a dramatic increase in the number of power electronic loads, both AC and DC. For ship service loads, a DC Zonal Electric Distribution System (DCZEDS) will likely be used. DCZEDS requires a device that provides galvanic isolation between the feeder buses and the zones to prevent fault propagation between zones. For DCZEDS to be practical, DC-DC converters that provide galvanic isolation with an efficiency and reliability approaching that of existing low frequency AC isolation transformers must be placed between the feeder buses and the zones. This thesis examines the construction and operation of a prototype galvanically isolated DC-DC converter using commercial-off-the-shelf parts. The converter uses a single-phase high-frequency transformer link to provide galvanic isolation. This work shows that this converter topology is


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reliable enough to be used in an IPS. A three-phase solution using this topology can provide sufficient power density at the megawatt level, necessary for an interface converter in DCZEDS. KEYWORDS: DC-DC Converter, Integrated Power System, Galvanic Isolation

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN ENGINEERING ACOUSTICS

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COMMUNICATIONS PERFORMANCE OF AN UNDERSEA ACOUSTIC WIDE-AREA NETWORK

Hannah A. Kriewaldt-Lieutenant, United States Naval Reserve B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1999

Master of Science in Engineering Acoustics-March 2006 Advisor: Joseph A. Rice, Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center

Second Reader: Frank E. Kragh, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering The U.S. Navy is developing through-water acoustic communications capability for networking undersea, distributed systems. These wireless communication links form a wide-area network of fixed nodes consistent with future autonomous sensors on the seafloor. Mobile nodes may operate in the domain of the grid using the fixed nodes as both navigation reference points and communication access points. This thesis evaluates the experimental performance of such networked communications between an undersea vehicle and a ship. Physical-layer considerations include refraction, wind-induced ambient noise, and vehicle aspect angle.

This thesis research is supported with a Student Fellowship awarded by Space and Naval Warfare (SPAWAR) Systems Center, San Diego. KEYWORDS: Underwater, Acoustic, Communications, Network Layer, Link Layer, Physical Layer, Telesonar, Seaweb, Multi-User, Underwater Acoustic Network, Throughput, Latency

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN HUMAN SYSTEMS INTEGRATION

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AN INNOVATIVE APPROACH FOR ASSESSING THE ERGONOMIC RISKS OF LIFTING TASKS USING A VIDEO MOTION CAPTURE SYSTEM

Rhoda M. Wilson-DoD Civilian B.S., Morgan State University, 2001

Master of Science in Human Systems Integration-March 2006 Advisor: Michael McCauley, Department of Operations Research

Second Reader: LCDR Laura Barton, USN, Department of Operations Research Low back pain (LBP) and work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) can lead to employee absenteeism, sick leave, and permanent disability. Over the years, much work has been done in examining physical exposure to ergonomic risks. The current research presents a new approach for assessing WMSD risk during lifting-related tasks that combines traditional observational methods with direct recording methods. One particular application area, the Future Combat System Medical Evacuation Vehicle (FCS MV-E) mockup, is chosen to illustrate the use of a two-dimensional motion capture system. It is hypothesized that combat medics (MOS 91W) who perform casualty evacuation under stressful battlefield conditions are at risk for musculoskeletal injuries, which would reduce their ability to perform their job. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the use of technology for posture analysis of team lifting and loading tasks. Results are presented that may help to determine whether combat medics are at risk for WMSD due to awkward postures involved in the evacuation of litter casualties. Based on lessons learned from the current study, recommendations are offered to guide further research in motion analysis of manual material handling tasks. KEYWORDS: Posture Analysis, Motion Capture, Ergonomics, Biomechanics, Lifting Tasks, Army Medical Vehicle

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN INFORMATION OPERATIONS

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AMERICAN GRAND STRATEGY IN AN AGE OF TERRORISM Paul T. Brooks-Major, United States Army

B.A., University of Notre Dame, 1990 Master of Science in Information Operations-March 2006 Advisor: John Arquilla, Department of Defense Analysis

Second Reader: David Tucker, Department of Defense Analysis More than four years after the September 11 attacks, it is time to reexamine the state of American grand strategy to identify possible refinements to improve synchronization, resource allocation, and policy execution at all levels. This research examines U.S. grand strategy to determine the nation’s plan for employing five instruments of national power: diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and law enforcement. Seven fundamental features of a grand strategy are developed, and thirteen national strategy documents are compared to these fundamentals to determine areas for future refinement. The study uses a brief analysis of national responses to the IRA, Sikh militants, and Hezbollah in Lebanon to illustrate these features in action. The study concludes by proposing a series of steps to refine America’s grand strategy as well as a framework to integrate instruments of national power in the struggle against transnational terrorism. KEYWORDS: Grand Strategy, Terrorism, Diplomacy, Information, Economic Power, Military, Law Enforcement, United States Grand Strategy, IRA, Sikh, Hezbollah, National Security Strategy

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT

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VALUED INFORMATION AT THE RIGHT TIME (VIRT) AND THE NAVY’S COOPERATIVE ENGAGEMENT CAPABILITY (CEC) – A WIN/WIN PROPOSITION

Rafael A. Acevedo-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1995

Master of Science in Information Technology Management-March 2006 Advisors: Rick Hayes-Roth, Department of Information Sciences

Curtis L. Blais, MOVES Institute In this thesis, the theory of “valued Information at the right time” (VIRT) and the benefits its implementation can provide to the Navy’s best example of accurate information-sharing, the Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC), is examined. The primary premise of VIRT is that only information which has some value to the user and could impact mission accomplishment should be allowed to flow from a source to the user. If information has little or no value to the individual it is destined for, it must simply be regarded as overhead and should not be sent/received. Using a simple simulation, the author shows that VIRT has the potential to provide benefits of orders of magnitude versus a non-VIRT implementation. The Navy’s CEC program represents a premier air track data sharing mechanism. It enables ships augmented with this capability and residing on the network to share fire control quality information on the individual parameters of air tracks, such as location, course, speed, and altitude. There is a place for VIRT implementation within CEC. Such an implementation can prove beneficial both to CEC as an internal user of information and also as a supplier to external entities of its valuable track information. Finally, the author provides a notional VIRT-enabled product-line architecture for a coalition information-sharing system. If both the concept of VIRT and CEC are to have a place in the future of information sharing, the issue of providing timely and valuable information to our coalition partners must be addressed. KEYWORDS: VIRT, Information Sharing, Cooperative Engagement Capability, CEC, Global Information Grid, GIG, Reduced Bandwidth, Minimize Resources, SIMKIT, VISKIT, Simulation, Modeling

COMPUTER AND VOICE NETWORK MANAGEMENT THROUGH LOW EARTH ORBITING SATELLITES

Richard W. Clement-Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., Georgia Institute of Technology, 1999

Master of Science in Information Technology Management-March 2006 Andre N. Rowe-Lieutenant, United States Navy

B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1997 Master of Science in Information Technology Management-March 2006

Advisor: Alexander Bordetsky, Department of Information Sciences Second Reader: Robert Broadston, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

This thesis provides a multi-faceted approach to preliminary feasibility studies for using satellite networks within the Center of Network Innovation and Experimentation’s (CENETIX) research programs, with particular emphasis on Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellite network solutions. This exploration of management techniques for remote sensor technologies employing low throughput-rate LEO satellite links reveals methods that connectivity can be tested when the connection is idle. Research into available amateur radio satellite assets leads to testing Automated Position Reporting System (APRS) satellites and terrestrial networks for common operational picture development in large geographical areas either too remote for common infrastructure or affected by disasters. The expansion of CENETIX’s research opportunities led researchers to explore DIRECWAY and iDirect technologies as methods for expanding

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT

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the Tactical Network Topology (TNT) network, and to test Nemesis’ new DIRECWAY functionality. Additionally, potential communications usage for future satellites in the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s TacSat program is explored. KEYWORDS: Low Earth Orbiting, LEO, Satellites, Iridium, TacSat, Amateur Radio, Automated Packet Reporting System, APRS, Packet Radio, iDirect, DIRECWAY, CENETIX, TNT, Nemesis

A CYBERCIEGE CAMPAIGN FULFILLING NAVY INFORMATION ASSURANCE TRAINING AND AWARENESS REQUIREMENTS

Benjamin D. Cone-Lieutenant, United States Naval Reserve B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1998

Master of Science in Information Technology Management-March 2006 Advisor: Cynthia Irvine, Department of Computer Science

Second Reader: Nelson Irvine, Department of Information Sciences The broad use of information systems within organizations has led to an increased appreciation of the need to ensure that all users be aware of basic concepts in Information Assurance (IA). The Department of Defense (DoD) addressed the idea of user awareness in DoD Directive 8750.1. This directive requires that all users of DoD information systems undergo an initial IA awareness orientation followed by annual refresher instruction.

This thesis created a CyberCIEGE campaign for the Naval Postgraduate School’s CyberCIEGE project that will fulfill Navy requirements to meet DoD Directive 8750.1. The first portion of this thesis is an analysis of four IA programs and products. Requirements for Navy IA awareness and training products are developed from this analysis. The second part of this thesis is a description of two CyberCIEGE scenarios that are created to fulfill these requirements. The first scenario focuses on basic IA awareness and emphasizes information that the Navy should reinforce. The scenario is intended for all users of Navy information systems. The second scenario is intended for technical users and addresses more advanced concepts and technical considerations. The technical user scenario emphasizes skill application and problem solving. KEYWORDS: CyberCIEGE, Information Assurance, Training, Awareness, DoD Directive 8750.1, Computer Security

BORDER MONITORING BASED ON A NOVEL PASSIVE-INFRARED DETECTION MODEL Iskender Dikmen-Lieutenant Junior Grade, Turkish Navy

B.S., Turkish Naval Academy, 2000 Master of Science in Computer Science-March 2006

Master of Science in Information Technology Management-March 2006 Advisor: Geoffrey Xie, Department of Computer Science

Second Reader: Alexander Bordetsky, Department of Information Sciences Improvements in technology have enabled the development of cost-effective, low-power, multifunctional wireless sensor nodes. Such nodes are used in various applications, including surveillance and intrusion detection. In this research, experiments are conducted in order to discover the detection probability of the Crossbow MSP410 mote sensor nodes. A new passive infrared (PIR) detection model is developed, which has a high probability detection region and a low probability detection region, for MSP410 mote sensor nodes based on the observed probabilities. The PIR model is used in the proposed sensor placement strategy for MSP410 mote sensor nodes intended for a border-monitoring scenario. The detection probability of the low probability region of the new PIR detection model is increased by overlapping with the low probability region of the neighboring sensor nodes in the proposed sensor placement strategy. KEYWORDS: Wireless Sensor Networks, Sensor Placement Strategy, PIR Detection Model


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BUSINESS PROCESS RE-ENGINEERING (BPR) OF THE NAVY’S INFORMATION PROFESSIONAL (IP) COMMUNITY’S CONTINUING EDUCATION UNIT (CEU)

TRACKING PROCESS Sylvia M. Layne-Lieutenant, United States Navy

B.A., Savannah State University, 1998 Master of Science in Information Technology Management-March 2006

Advisor: Dan Boger, Department of Information Sciences Second Reader: LCDR Reese Zomar, USN, Department of Information Sciences

This thesis analyzes how the United States Navy's Information Professional (IP) community is currently managing the Continuing Education Unit (CEU) Program, and proposes and develops a technical solution that could be implemented by Commander, Naval Network Warfare Command (NETWARCOM), to minimize the current management challenge. The IP Community has a fiscal year requirement to obtain a certain number of CEUs. The process of tracking these CEUs is currently performed manually using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. This thesis examines the feasibility and effectiveness of redesigning the CEU tracking process in light of modern Business Process Re-Engineering (BPR) methodologies that incorporate contemporary information technology. The "AS-IS" process is identified using the Knowledge-Value Added (KVA) methodology and modeled using Microsoft Visio software to identify pertinent redesign recommendations. A "TO-BE" process is also identified using KVA and modeled using Visio. A web-based prototype system, Reengineered Continuing Education Unit Tracking tool, is developed using basic tools such as Microsoft Access and Dream Weaver Active Server Pages (ASP), to demonstrate the viability, value, and efficiency added to implementing the necessary functionality. The benefits of replacing the current manual system with a web-based system are reduced manpower hours, increased accuracy, and consistency in the process. KEYWORDS: U.S. Navy, Naval Network Warfare Command, NETWARCOM, Information Professional Community, IP Community, Business Process Re-Engineering, BPR, Database, Web-Database Connectivity, Change Management, Continuing Education Units, Automated Tracking

SOLUTIONS ANALYSIS OF UNIVERSAL WIRELESS JOINT POINT TECHNOLOGIES IN HETEROGENEOUS TACTICAL NETWORKS

Donald F. Stewart-Lieutenant Colonel, United States Army B.S., University of Southern Mississippi, 1986

Master of Science in Information Technology Management-March 2006 Eric G. Turner-Lieutenant, United States Navy

B.S., Norfolk State University, 2000 Master of Science in Information Technology Management-March 2006

Advisors: Alexander Bordetsky, Department of Information Sciences Eugene Bourakov, Department of Information Sciences

Since its introduction in 1999, the IEEE 802.11 standard has become the de-facto standard for wireless computing, but with the desire for increased range and mobility the standard is aggressively being challenged by new and emerging technology. Research conducted through ongoing Tactical Network Topology (TNT) experiments has successfully tested different types of wireless network technologies, including ITT MeshNetworks Enabled Architecture (MEA), Redline 802.16, and Flarion 802.20 in a mobile field environment. In each case, only the respective wireless access point technology (i.e., WAP with compatible 802.11, 802.16, 802.20, and ITT wireless interface card) could be used to transmit data into and across the TNT network and back to the light reconnaissance vehicle, tactical operations center, and/or network operations center at a given time. With different wireless technologies having their own advantages and disadvantages, the need for them to transfer data back and forth between wireless networks of different (i.e., heterogeneous) technologies and into a wired network, utilizing a common access point, is becoming increasingly important to wireless mobile device users. Adding to this need is the desire to minimize equipment and personnel needed to support tactical, wireless network operations.

Sponsored by the Special Operations Command (SOCOM) and the Department of Defense (DoD), this thesis analyzes the feasibility of achieving interoperability between heterogeneous wireless networks via a joint (universal) wireless access point (UWAP/UAP). Problems associated with why wireless devices built


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on different wireless technologies are not interoperable with each other are studied. Requirements necessary to enable a single wireless access point to achieve universal interoperability with different wireless devices are detailed. Additionally, several commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) devices are evaluated for possible implementation of a universal wireless access point. The thesis concludes with recommendations on the application of universal joint point technology, including recommendations for implementation of such technology. KEYWORDS: AP/WAP, Interoperability, Heterogeneous Wireless Networks, UAP/UWAP

OPERATION OF LONG-HAUL NON-LOS WIRELESS TACTICAL NETWORKS Christoforos P. Zachariadis-Major, Hellenic Army

B.S., Hellenic Army Academy, 1986 Master of Science in Information Technology Management-March 2006

Master of Science in Systems Engineering-March 2006 Advisor: Alexander Bordetsky, Department of Information Sciences

Second Reader: Maj Carl Oros, USMC, Department of Information Sciences In this thesis, researchers examine the applicability of 802.16 Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) wireless technology to support a range of military operations that require mobility and a highly adaptive, ad-hoc organization. Three techniques are used to assess the operation of the 802.16 Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) test bed for its quality requirements: field experimentation scenarios, network performance management tools, and modeling tools. First, researchers explore the network performance patterns at layer two and layer three and their association with application performance in a holistic network behavior model. Second, researchers identify critical military applications and diagnose performance issues using OPNET Modeler ACE. Finally, this study shows how the combination of a well-planned network management and collaborative technology creates a desirable situational awareness for network operators. KEYWORDS: 802.16 OFDM, Network Performance, OPNET Modeler ACE, Solar Winds, NOC, Collaborative Tools, Situational Awareness

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN MANAGEMENT

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THE EFFECTS OF WORK-RELATED PERCEPTIONS ON RETENTION OF HISPANICS IN THE U.S. MARINE CORPS

Enrique A. Azenon-Captain, United States Marine Corps B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1996

Master of Science in Management-March 2006 Advisors: Kathryn M. Kocher, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

Mark J. Eitelberg, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy This thesis investigates whether perceptions of the working environment are related to a Marine Corps member’s intentions to remain on active duty. The study further examines whether perceptions about intra-organizational mobility, inequity in the workplace, and organizational support vary by racial/ethnic group. The analysis focuses on Hispanics, the largest growing ethnic minority in the United States, and draws upon data from the 2002 Status of the Armed Forces: Gender and Working Relations (WGR) Survey. Logistic regression models are developed for junior officers and enlisted personnel to determine the relationship between perceptions of the working environment in the Marine Corps and a Marine’s intention to stay on active duty or complete a 20-year military career. The results of the quantitative analysis show that negative views about professional development, current assignment, and equity in the workplace are significant in both officer and enlisted models. Results also indicate that, among racial/ethnic groups, Hispanics are most strongly influenced by the effects of negative perceptions in the working environment on their plans to remain in the Marine Corps. It is recommended that further research look at the Hispanic military population by focusing on the various sub-groups within the ethnic category itself. KEYWORDS: Manpower, Retention and Job Satisfaction, Personnel Turnover, Personnel Retention, Diversity Studies, Manpower Policy Issues/Special Studies

THE EFFECTS OF END-OF-MONTH RECRUITING ON MARINE CORPS RECRUIT DEPOT ATTRITION

Robert E. Baczkowski, Jr.-Captain, United States Marine Corps A.S., University of Cincinnati, 1991 B.S., Miami University-Ohio, 2000

Master of Science in Management-March 2006 Advisors: Stephen L. Mehay, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

William D. Hatch, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Recruiters, under pressure to meet end-of-month goals, often work feverishly to meet their monthly recruiting goals. This thesis uses regression models to examine the effects of day of month of enlistment on Marine Corps Recruit Depot attrition percentages to examine the hypothesis that recruiters lower their standards at the end of the month in a final effort to make their monthly recruiting mission.

The Total Force Data Warehouse provided data for over 50,000 recruits who enlisted and shipped to recruit training between October 2003 and May 2005. Of those, over 5,500 (10.62%) failed to complete the prescribed training. In the logit regression models, discharge is modeled against demographic variables, such as age, gender, race, education level, and Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) score, as well as variables representing the day of the month a recruit enlists (last day, last week, or last 10 days of the month). Prior research has found that Delayed Entry Program (DEP) attrition is higher for recruits who enter the Marine Corps at the end of the month. By contrast, the data analyzed in this study show that once a Marine Corps enlistee ships to a recruit-training depot, there is no statistical evidence of higher attrition rates in basic training based on the day the recruit enlisted.

MANAGEMENT

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KEYWORDS: Delayed Entry Program, DEP, Attrition, Marine Corps Recruiting Depot, MCRD, Attrition, Attrition, Recruit Training

EFFECT OF INCREASED OPERATIONAL TEMPO (POST 9/11) ON THE RETENTION OF NAVY MEDICAL CORPS OFFICERS

Raymond Michael Bristol-Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., Old Dominion University, 1998

Master of Science in Management-March 2006 Advisors: Yu-Chu Shen, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

Kathryn M. Kocher, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy This thesis seeks to determine if increased operational tempo (OPTEMPO) has a significant effect on the retention behavior of Navy physicians. Demographic and military experience variables are used to construct logistic difference-in-difference (DID) regression models to evaluate the behavior of general medical officers (GMOs) and specialists making continuation decisions before and after Operation Iraqi Freedom. Although similar across time, the DID models illustrate the diverging impact of deployments on continuation after the OPTEMPO increased. The DID model indicates that GMOs affected by increased OPTEMPO are significantly less likely to continue. Continuation is also hindered by being black, Hispanic, and single with dependents. Factors promoting continuation include years of service, being a flight surgeon, an undersea-medicine physician, and a member of a race/ethnicity group other than white, black, or Hispanic. Similarly, the DID model indicates that specialists who deployed after the OPTEMPO increased have a substantially higher probability of separation. The probability for leaving is increased for specialists who are not in primary care. The probability of continuation is higher for individuals with more years of service, those single without dependents, those deployed before the OPTEMPO increased, and those assigned to Naval Medical Center, San Diego. KEYWORDS: Retention, Medical Corps, Operational Tempo, Difference-in-Difference

UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS’ PERSONAL-DISCOUNT RATES, AS EVIDENCED FROM VOLUNTARY-SEPARATION-PAYMENT PROGRAMS

Martin K. Deichert-Major, United States Marine Corps B.A., University of Texas at Austin, 1990

Master of Science in Management-March 2006 Advisors: Nayantara D. Hensel, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

Kathryn M. Kocher, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Personal-discount rates can be defined as the rate at which Marines trade current dollars for future dollars. This research attempts to fill in the gaps of previous discount rate studies where Marine Corps data were omitted, by determining the personal discount rates for each individual who separated from the Marine Corps under the SSB or VSI voluntary separation payment programs between 1992 and 1997. This study also determines those personal, professional, and economic traits that had a significant influence on Marines during their separation payment option decisions. The findings of this research are similar to previous studies, indicating that the methodology applied in this study is accurate. The implications of this research for the Marine Corps are that manpower planners can use the determined personal discount rates to create policies that can target Marines who possess certain personal or professional characteristics for reduction or retention, thereby assisting the efforts to create a balanced and capable Marine Corps in the future. Planners can also use this research to anticipate the effect of a certain policy on Marines with specific professional or personal traits. KEYWORDS: Marine Corps, Retention, Enlisted Retention, Officer Retention, Manpower Policy, Manpower, Personnel/Attrition, Personal Discount Rates

MANAGEMENT

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FORECASTING MARINE CORPS ENLISTED MANPOWER INVENTORY LEVELS WITH UNIVARIATE TIME SERIES MODELS

Douglas I. Feiring-Lieutenant Colonel, United States Marine Corps B.A., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1990

Master of Science in Management-March 2006 Advisors: Samuel E. Buttrey, Department of Operations Research William D. Hatch, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

Accurately forecasting future personnel inventory levels by rank and occupational specialty is a fundamental prerequisite for development of an effective and functional staffing plan. This thesis develops and evaluates univariate time series models to create six- and twelve-month forecasts of Marine Corps enlisted manpower levels. Models are developed for 44 representative population groups using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, multiplicative decomposition, and Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting methods. The forecasts are evaluated against actual, out-of-sample inventory levels using several goodness-of-fit indicators, including Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and sum of squared errors (SSE). Among the modeling techniques evaluated, the multiplicative decomposition performs the best overall and represents an improvement over the Marine Corps’ current forecasting method. This thesis recommends Marine Corps Systems Command, Total Force Information Technology Systems, develop and introduce a multiplicative decomposition forecasting model into the enlisted staffing goal model. This forecasting technique should be implemented in phases, starting with the E-1 through E-4 population groups. KEYWORDS: Univariate Forecasting Techniques, Time Series, ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing, Decomposition, ESGM, Enlisted Staffing Goal Model, Manpower/Supply, Modeling, Personnel Inventory, Forecasting

FEDEX PREMIUM SERVICE EFFECTS ON DEFENSE DISTRIBUTION INVENTORIES AND SHIPMENTS

Marichal L. Hill-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., Memphis State University, 1992

Master of Science in Management-March 2006 Bobby R. Pitts-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

B.S., Memphis State University, 1992 Master of Science in Management-March 2006

Advisor: Donald R. Eaton, RADM, USN (Ret.), Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Second Reader: Kevin R. Gue, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) and Federal Express (FedEx) have formed a partnership called DLA Premium Service, which is the only Department of Defense (DoD) warehousing operation that is located with and managed by a commercial express transportation carrier at a FedEx main transportation hub. The premium-service system allows users to position materials in the Memphis facility for expedited delivery to the required destinations worldwide. All items are guaranteed, under contract, to be delivered to their continental U.S. (CONUS) destination within 24 hours, and within 48 hours to outside CONUS (OCONUS) to the major airports serviced by FedEx. Items will be delivered to the OCONUS final destination 24 hours of release from the customs holding area at the airport. The service provides advance notification to streamline customs requirements for all OCONUS shipments. This research reviews some of the benefits and costs of this co-located DoD warehousing and shipping operation (managed by a commercial express transportation carrier). The research views the possible benefits gained through commercial inventory and transportation practices by partnering a third party logistics service with the defense transportation system. KEYWORDS: FedEx Premium Service, Defense Distribution System, Third Party Logistics Provider, DLA Depots, Defense Transportation System

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SALARY AUCTIONS AND MATCHING AS INCENTIVES FOR RECRUITING TO POSITIONS THAT ARE HARD TO FILL IN THE NORWEGIAN ARMED FORCES

Henning Hansen Homb-Major, Norwegian Air Force Master of Science in Management-March 2006

Advisors: William R. Gates, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Peter J. Coughlan, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

This thesis explores two different areas of research, auction theory and assignment market mechanisms, to help remedy filling job vacancies in the organization of the Norwegian Armed Forces and to improve the quality of military assignments. Both of these mechanisms fall short when used independently. Auction theory is problematic when both sides of the market have preferences over the outcome; assignment models are problematic when there are system level concerns about which jobs remain unfilled. This thesis introduces a hybrid solution, containing elements of both auction theory and assignment markets, which has the potential to improve the current matching process. This research improves knowledge and understanding about both of these research areas and their interactions. KEYWORDS: Auctions, Two-Sided Matching, Assignment Incentives

AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS OF THE DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY’S TARGETED SEPARATION INCENTIVE PROGRAM AS A FORCE-SHAPING TOOL

Daniel P. Hudson-Major, United States Marine Corps B.A., University of Georgia, 1991

Master of Science in Management-March 2006 Advisor: William R. Gates, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

Second Reader: Peter J. Coughlan, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

This research examines how the Targeted Separation Incentive Program, currently underway by the Navy, is being administered to bring about the voluntary separation of junior officers in order to meet the requirements of the Navy’s most recent force reduction. This study evaluates the effects of past separation-incentive programs as well as the current compensation package that the service-member may receive, which are outlined in the fiscal year 2006 National Defense Authorization Act. In addition, an analysis is conducted of the costs associated with retaining the service-member versus the personal costs of that individual leaving. The objective of this thesis is to evaluate the Department of the Navy’s (DoN) Targeted Separation Incentive Program in order to determine if this program can adequately meet the goals of the current force reduction and whether or not savings can be realized through alternative separation programs. KEYWORDS: Manpower, Incentives, Separations, Auctions

REPUBLIC OF KOREA (ROK) ARMY MANPOWER FORCE STRUCTURE: VALIDATION OF ORGANIZATIONAL (OFFICER, NON-COMMISSIONED OFFICER (NCO),

AND ENLISTED PERSONNEL) STAFFING OF AN INFANTRY BATTALION Ki Hwan Kim-Captain, Republic of Korea Army

B.A., Virginia Military Institute, 1997 Master of Science in Management-March 2006

Advisor: William D. Hatch, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Second Reader: Kwan Ho Cho, Korea Institute of Defense Analyses

This research recommends changes to force ratios of officers, non-commissioned officers (NCOs) and enlisted personnel in Republic of Korea (ROK) army infantry battalions. The methodology is a bottom-up approach that examines unit staffing and supports ROK Defense Reform Plan 2020 (the reform plan). The research finds that the ROK army possesses an excessively personnel-centric force structure not suited for the future battlefield. Secondly, the author recommends the revision of force manpower structures to support a capabilities-based ROK Army infantry battalion. The research models an infantry battalion with increased qualitative and quantitative NCO ratios, which support a more technologically advanced infantry battalion manpower structure. Significant findings of this research recommend increasing the number of

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ROK armed services volunteers at the E-5 and E-6 pay grades to improve leadership, training and development, and the ability to execute the technology required to implement the reform plan, which is transformational, and a fundamental prerequisite for the reform plan. The ROK Ministry of National Defense must start now to make the ROK military an employer of choice to eventually transition to a greater and more capable volunteer force. KEYWORDS: ROK Manpower, USMC Manpower, TO, TO&E, Force Structure, Capabilities, Transformation

A RETENTION ANALYSIS OF U.S. NAVAL ACADEMY IMMEDIATE GRADUATE EDUCATION PARTICIPANTS

Maria V. Navarro-Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., University of South Carolina, 1998


William Bowman, United States Naval Academy This thesis studies the retention of United States Naval Academy (USNA) Voluntary Graduate Education Program (VGEP) and scholarship participants in the graduating classes of 1983-1998. The comparison group of non-participants consists of USNA graduating classes 1983-1998 with an academic-quality point rating (AQPR) comparable to the early graduate education students. AQPR is used in order to make the academic backgrounds similar for the participants and non-participants. The retention behavior of program participants and non-participants is compared to determine if participation in early graduate education affects retention. The models analyze retention to each year of service between six and twelve years. In the retention models for unrestricted line officers, both VGEP and scholarship have a small positive effect on retention to seven years commissioned service (YCS). Although the adjusted differences in retention are not large in magnitude, the results dispel the notion that early graduate education programs are used as vehicles by junior officers to facilitate transition to the civilian labor market following expiration of their initial service obligation. No changes to the service obligations for these programs are recommended. KEYWORDS: VGEP, Scholarship, Retention, Manpower, Education, USNA AN ANALYSIS OF PRIMARY MILITARY OCCUPATIONAL SPECIALTIES ON RETENTION

AND PROMOTION OF MID-GRADE OFFICERS IN THE U.S. MARINE CORPS Tracy A. Perry-Captain, United States Marine Corps

B.S., University of Florida, 1998 Master of Science in Management-March 2006

Advisors: Samuel E. Buttrey, Department of Operations Research Kathryn M. Kocher, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy

The purpose of this thesis is to identify and evaluate factors that affect retention and promotion of mid-grade officers in the U.S. Marine Corps. The analysis includes evaluation of survival patterns to ten-years of commissioned service and promotion patterns to O-4 and O-5. The primary goal is to explain the effect of an officers’ primary military occupational specialty (PMOS) on retention and promotion.

The Marine Corps Commissioned Officer Accession Career (MCCOAC) data file contains cohort information from fiscal year 1980 through fiscal year 1999 and includes 27,659 observations. Using data from the MCCOAC data file, logistic regression, and Cox Proportional Hazard models are used to estimate the effects of an officer’s PMOS on survival and promotion patterns of Marine Corps officers.

The findings indicate that an officer’s PMOS is significantly associated with whether an officer stays until 10 YCS or is promoted to O-4 or O-5. Logistic regression results show that pilot PMOSs are positively correlated with surviving until 10 YCS, but are negatively correlated with promotion to O-4, when compared to Infantry. The results also find that the remaining PMOSs are negatively correlated with whether and officer survives until 10 YCS, when compared to Infantry. In addition, only three PMOSs (0402, 7202, and 7523) are positively correlated with whether an officer is promoted to O-4 or O-5. Finally,

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the Cox Proportional Hazard results show the effect of having a particular PMOS or occupational field on the hazards of separation and promotion. KEYWORDS: Marine Corps, Officer Career, Retention, Promotion, Human Resource Development Process, Primary Military Occupational Specialty, Occupational Field

FRONTLINE STRATEGIES OF THE NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION Jeffery A. Sierpien-Captain, United States Marine Corps

B.S., Wayne State University, 1994 Master of Science in Management-March 2006

Advisor: Nicolas Dew, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Second Reader: Andy Wicks, University of Virginia

This research analyzes the comprehensive organizational strategy of the National Rifle Association (NRA). The NRA was dramatically transformed from a gun enthusiasts group to one of the most powerful organizations in the U.S. starting in the late 1970s. The key focus of the study is on the NRA’s political influences and victories in the U.S. over the past 30 years. The research also focuses on NRA senior leadership, NRA members, media sources, and U.S. politics as they relate to the current and future strategies of the organization. The thesis includes an in-depth look at the NRA’s history, followed by a broad focus on how the NRA became, and remains, one of the most powerful lobbying organizations in the U.S. Due to the fluid nature of the NRA, interviews are conducted with senior NRA personnel at NRA Headquarters in Fairfax, Virginia, and at the Washington D.C. field office. Interviews are conducted with the Director of the Grassroots Division and the Director of Federal Affairs. The goal of these interviews is to give this research the most current information on future goals and trends in the NRA. KEYWORDS: National Rifle Association, NRA, Organizational Strategy, Social Movements

THE EFFECTS OF THE GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM ON RETENTION OF MARINE CORPS AVIATORS

Daniel B. Smith-Captain, United States Marine Corps B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1996


Kathryn M. Kocher, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy This thesis analyzes the retention of Marine Corps aviators before and after 9/11/2001. The retention analysis utilizes data from the Marine Corps’ Total Force Data Warehouse (TFDW), the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) PERSTEMPO file, and Aviation Information Resources (AIR), Inc. The retention analysis focuses on how the increased operational tempo resulting from the Global War on Terrorism has affected the retention behavior of Marine aviators. Results indicate that the deployments resulting from the increased operational tempo post-9/11 have a negative effect on the retention of Marine aviators, as compared to the period before 9/11. The post-9/11 analysis reveals that as the number of deployments increases, non-hostile or hostile, the likelihood of retention decreases. Whereas pre-9/11 aviators were not affected by deployments, the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) aviators have an increasingly negative response to deployments. This thesis provides several recommendations for reducing the effect of increased deployments on retention. KEYWORDS: Retention, Operational Tempo, Marine Corps, Aviator, Pilot, Officer, Turnover, Global War on Terrorism, Personnel Tempo

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN MECHANICAL ENGINEERING

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DESIGN, FABRICATION, AND TESTING OF A SCALABLE SERIES AUGMENTED ELECTROMAGNETIC RAILGUN RESEARCH PLATFORM

Brian C. Black-Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., Dickinson College, 1991

B.S., University of Pittsburgh, 1998 Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering-March 2006

Advisors: William Maier, Department of Physics Terry McNelley, Department of Mechanical and Astronautical Engineering

The design and material properties of rails and projectiles are critical to the success of the Navy railgun. This thesis addresses the design, fabrication, and testing of a scalable square bore electromagnetic railgun. This railgun is designed to permit series augmented operation, and incorporates disposable rail liners to facilitate investigating the suitability of various rail materials. A series of shots has demonstrated performance consistent with theoretical modeling, including significant performance enhancement as a result of both the slotted rail geometry and augmentation over solid rail configurations. A capacitor based stored energy supply input of 35 kJ resulted in a measured velocity of 294 m/s for an 11.4 gram projectile. Suggestions are provided for future power supply configurations, rail materials and surface treatments, and a variety of armature geometries. KEYWORDS: Railgun, Rail-Gun, Augmentation, Electromagnetic Launch, Armature, Pulsed Power, Hypervelocity Launch, Hypervelocity Projectile, Ion Beam Surface Treatment, IBEST, Laser Peening, Electromagnetic Launch

EXPERIMENTAL VERIFICATION OF THE FLOW AROUND COMPRESSOR BLADES IN CASCADE AT STALL WITH INITIAL NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS

Michael A. Glova-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1996

Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering-March 2006 Advisor: Garth V. Hobson, Department of Mechanical and Astronautical Engineering

Second Reader: Knox T. Millsaps, Department of Mechanical and Astronautical Engineering In this thesis, the flow around second-generation controlled diffusion blades in cascade at stall was examined experimentally through the use of a two-component laser-Doppler velocimeter (LDV). The experimental results were compared with computational fluid dynamics predictions in order to provide information that will allow for more exact design of advanced blades. Mid-span blade surface pressure data were also collected at various Reynolds numbers. Pressure distribution plots verified that the blades were in the stalled condition. The LDV measurement surveys were taken at one inlet station, at three stations on the suction side of the blade, and at three stations in the wake. KEYWORDS: Controlled-Diffusion, Compressor, Stator, Cascade, Laser Doppler Velocimetry, Computational Fluid Dynamics Lossless Data

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STUDY OF MICRO-SIZED TECHNOLOGY, MICRO AIR VEHICLES, AND DESIGN OF A PAYLOAD CARRYING FLAPPING WING MICRO AIR VEHICLE

Timothy J. Kinkaid-Ensign, United States Naval Reserve B.S., United States Naval Academy, 2004

Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering-March 2006 Advisor: Isaac Kaminer, Department of Mechanical and Astronautical Engineering

Second Reader: Kevin Jones, Department of Mechanical and Astronautical Engineering Recently, the military has expressed an interest in having platforms capable of operating close to a point of interest without being detected, while providing critical surveillance. By providing information that is not readily available, these platforms could provide a useful tool for small unit commanders in potentially life-threatening situations. Highly maneuverable, slow-flying, micro air vehicles could fly under canopies, through alleys, or indoors to provide such intelligence. This study consists of a survey of current micro-sized technologies and commercially available components. The findings are presented and used in the design process of a larger payload-carrying variant of the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) flapping wing micro air vehicle. The intent is to develop a readily deployable, backpackable, slow-flying micro air vehicle that can be used by smaller-size ground units in theatre for urban reconnaissance. KEYWORDS: Micro-Sized Technology, Micro Air Vehicle, Flapping Wing Propulsion

PARTICLE IMAGE VELOCIMETRY (PIV) MEASUREMENTS IN THE WAKE OF A CASCADE OF COMPRESSOR BLADES AT STALL Robert C. Quesenbury, Jr.-Lieutenant, United States Navy

B.S., New School University, 1998 Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering-March 2006

Advisor: Garth V. Hobson, Department of Mechanical and Astronautical Engineering Second Reader: Raymond P. Shreeve, Professor Emeritus

The flow around second-generation controlled-diffusion compressor blades in cascade at stall is examined through the use of a Particle Image Velocimeter (PIV). This examination is conducted from the trailing edge of the blade well into the wake region. Flow visualization techniques are used to observe and record the behavior of the region of flow separation. The PIV data shows that the separated regions continue to grow up to approximately 10% of blade chord length past the trailing edge. Past this point, these areas begin to show signs of becoming entrained in the free stream. The flow visualization highlights the extent of the backflow. The PIV measurements document the velocity profiles within the wake region. KEYWORDS: Controlled-Diffusion, Compressor, Stator, Cascade, Turbomachinery, Particle Image Velocimetry, Vortex Shedding

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN METEOROLOGY

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APPLYING ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS TO DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE OPERATIONS

Jeffrey G. Cunningham-First Lieutenant, United States Air Force B.S., United States Air Force Academy, 2002

Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006 Advisors: Carlyle H. Wash, Department of Meteorology

Patrick A. Harr, Department of Meteorology Based on recent advances, skilled objectively determined probabilistic forecasts of some weather phenomena may be provided to operational decision-makers. Objective probabilistic forecasts that are generated from ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are attractive as a forecast methodology for Department of Defense (DoD) applications for three reasons: first, atmospheric scientists understand that the atmosphere has a limit of predictability, which means that traditional deterministic forecasts lack important uncertainty information; second, it has been demonstrated that quantifying uncertainty may improve a weather forecast user’s ability to make a better decision based on their own utility function, which translates to better operational risk management (ORM) for the DoD; and finally, progress points towards a future with machine-to-machine warfare. These assertions are examined by applying probabilistic forecasts from an ensemble-based aircraft-scale turbulence forecast system to several cases and scenarios. Results clearly demonstrate the advantage of using ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts versus deterministic forecasts. Additionally, application of ensemble-based probabilistic forecast information to DoD operations is shown to be possible through its ORM programs. Specifically, air-refueling scenarios are identified that demonstrate the integration of probabilistic turbulence forecast guidance into the U.S. Air Force ORM process. KEYWORDS: Ensemble Prediction Systems, Weather Risk Management, Operational Risk Management, Air Refueling, Decision Theory, Department of Defense, Aircraft-scale Turbulence, Air Turbulence, Turbulence

ANALYSIS OF WEATHER FORECAST IMPACTS ON UNITED STATES AIR FORCE COMBAT OPERATIONS

Karen M. Darnell-Major, United States Air Force B.S., South Dakota State University, 1989 M.A., Central Michigan University, 1995

Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006 Advisors: Tom Murphree, Department of Meteorology

Col David Smarsh, USAF, Chief of Staff Accurate weather forecasts are vital to air combat operations. Quantitative assessments of forecasts and their operational impacts are essential to improving weather support for war fighters. Researchers adapted an existing U.S. Navy, web-based, near-real time system for collecting and analyzing data on the performance and operational impacts of military forecasts. In this research, the adapted system is used to collect and analyze data on Air Force Weather (AFW) forecasts, and the planning and execution of flying operations, at six Air Combat Command and Pacific Air Forces bases. Researchers analyze the data to develop quantitative metrics of forecast performance and operational impacts. Results indicate that planning weather forecasts (PWFs) have a higher potential for making positive contributions to air operations than do mission execution forecasts (MEFs). This is notable because AFW units spend significantly less time developing PWFs than MEFs. Surface visibility, cloud ceilings, and cloud layers cause most negative mission impacts, indicating these phenomena should be a focus of future research and

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training. Researchers find high levels of mission success even when forecasts are inaccurate, perhaps due to aircrew and mission flexibility. This analysis reveals a need for improved education of flying units on the nature and availability of AFW products. KEYWORDS: Meteorology, Forecast Verification, Forecast Performance, Operational Verification, Operational Impacts, Aircrews, Aviators, Mission Execution Forecast, Planning Weather Forecast, Air Combat, Combat Operations, Air Force Weather, Air Combat Command, Pacific Air Forces, Metrics

ACCURACY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INDUCED WINDS USING TYPHOON DETERMINATION (TYDET) AT KADENA

Joel W. Fenlason-Captain, United States Air Force B.S., University of Washington, 1996

Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006 Advisor: Patrick A. Harr, Department of Meteorology

Second Reader: Russell L. Elsberry, Department of Meteorology When a tropical cyclone (TC) is within 360 nautical miles of Kadena Air Base, the Air Force’s Typhoon Determination (TYDET) program is used to estimate TC-induced winds expected at the base. Best-track data and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecasts are used to evaluate systematic errors in TYDET. The largest contributors to errors in TYDET are a systematic error by which wind speeds are too large, and the lack of size and symmetry parameters. To examine these parameters, best-track and forecasts are used to classify TCs as small or large and symmetrical or asymmetrical. A linear regression technique is then used to adjust TYDET forecasts based on the best-track and forecast position, size, and symmetry categories. Using independent data, over 65 percent of the overall cross-wind forecasts are improved and more than 60 percent of the cross-wind forecasts are improved when verifying conditions noted a cross-wind of 20 knots or greater. The effectiveness of the corrections and implications for TYDET forecasts are examined in relation to errors in forecast data used to initialize TYDET. A similar approach as developed here for the TYDET model at Kadena AB is proposed for other bases within the Pacific theater. KEYWORDS: Tropical Cyclone, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, TYDET, Kadena AB, Western North Pacific Typhoons

OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT OF TARGET ACQUISITIONS WEAPONS SOFTWARE (TAWS) PREDICTION PERFORMANCE AT NELLIS AIR FORCE BASE, NEVADA

Jerome H. Hernandez-Captain, United States Air Force B.S., Texas A&M University, 1999

Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006 Advisors: Kenneth L. Davidson, Department of Meteorology

Andreas K. Goroch, Naval Research Laboratory Target Acquisition Weapons Software (TAWS) Version 3.4 is a joint Tactical Decision Aid (TDA) used to predict performance of electro-optic and electro-magnetic (EM/EO) munitions and navigation systems. TAWS is the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Navy’s mission-planning standard for laser-guided, infrared, and TV munitions and navigation systems TDAs. As TAWS continues to deploy through the mission planning community, there is a need to establish a systematic approach to assessing TAWS accuracy. This study is an operational assessment of TAWS Infrared (IR) model performance and consists of two parts: a comparison of model predictions to pilot observations of IR detection range of a static tank target, and an assessment of physical temperature predictions. Limiting factors of this project are similar to those encountered in real world utilization of TAWS mission planning TDAs. This evaluation finds TAWS-predicted detection ranges and target scene model output are representative forecasts of observed values. The TDA provides a good description of background thermal behavior and highlights the necessity of careful evaluation of the target scene because of component facet complexity and the geometry of facets exposed to the sensor view. The resulting component analysis illuminates the benefit of focusing new TAWS development on improving the target physical model.

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KEYWORDS: Target Acquisition Weapons Software, TAWS, Tactical Decision Aids, TDA, Weather Impacts, Physical Meteorology, Electro-Optical Tactical Decision Aids, EOTDA

EVALUATION OF CONVECTIVE WIND FORECASTING METHODS DURING HIGH WIND EVENTS

Christopher J. Kuhlman-Captain, United States Air Force B.S., Valparaiso University, 2001

Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006 Advisor: Wendell A. Nuss, Department of Meteorology

Second Reader: Carlyle H. Wash, Department of Meteorology This study investigates convective wind gust forecasting methods for reported gusts in the midwest, central, and northeast United States from June and July 2005. Three methods are examined using MM5 model data; the T1 and T2 methods and the WINDEX method. The model-derived wind gusts determined by each method are then compared to wind reports from the Storm Prediction Center’s severe storm reports archive and reports from observing stations. Model-derived wind gusts are then compared to the observed wind gusts for varying times of day and observed wind gust ranges. Wind gust frequency plots are examined for each wind method to determine accuracy and to characterize any patterns. The T1 method is the most accurate overall for this study, but is shown to be less sensitive to varying atmospheric conditions. The T2 method is the least accurate of the three methods during all situations. The WINDEX method performs well in most situations and is nearly as accurate as the T1 method, while WINDEX also proves to be the most sensitive of the three to varying mesoscale conditions. KEYWORDS: Convective Wind Forecasting Methods, Model-Derived Wind Gusts, T1 Method, T2 Method, WINDEX Method

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIATIONS ON MILITARY OPERATIONS IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

Mark R. LaJoie-Major, United States Air Force B.S., Creighton University, 1991

M.A., University of South Florida, 2004 Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006

Advisor: Tom Murphree, Department of Meteorology Second Reader: Lt Col Karl D. Pfeiffer, USAF, Department of Information Sciences

Department of Defense climatology products rely mainly on long-term means (LTMs) of climate system variables. In this project, researchers demonstrate that climatologies based on LTMs can be substantially improved using modern data and methods, especially by accounting for climate variations. Researchers analyze and identify mechanisms for enhanced (suppressed) autumn precipitation in the Horn of Africa (HOA) during El Niño (La Niña) events. El Niño (La Niña) precipitation anomalies are associated with anomalously warm (cool) western Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, and with anomalously onshore (offshore) moisture transports in the HOA. These transport anomalies support anomalously strong (weak) precipitation over the HOA. To improve climatological support for DoD operations, researchers develop and test a six-step smart climatology process and apply this process in the context of a notional, unclassified non-combatant evacuation operation (NEO) set in the HOA during autumn of an El Niño year. Using this process, researchers translate the scientific and operational findings into warfighter impacts. The smart climatology process developed is readily adaptable to other regions, seasons, climate variations, and military operations. A detailed description of the smart climatology process is provided to facilitate its use by DoD agencies. KEYWORDS: Horn of Africa, El Niño, La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Long Term Mean, Climatology, Climate Variation, Climate Anomaly, Precipitation, Moisture Transport, Smart Climatology, Climatological Support, Military Operation, Military Planning, Warfighter Impact

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BULK METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS FOR DIAGNOSING CLOUDINESS IN THE STOCHASTIC CLOUD FORECAST MODEL

Ryan N. Leach-Second Lieutenant, United States Air Force B.S., Washington State University, 2004

Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006 Advisor: Lt Col Karl D. Pfeiffer, USAF, Department of Meteorology

Second Reader: Carlyle H. Wash, Department of Meteorology The three dimensional distribution of clouds is of great interest to the Air Force, and to the aviation community in general. The Stochastic Cloud Forecast Model (SCFM) is a novel, global cloud model currently operated at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), which diagnoses cloud cover statistically using a minimal set of predictors from global numerical forecasts. Currently, the four predictors are pressure, temperature, vertical velocity, and relative humidity. In this thesis, 330 sets of predictors are compared in the SCFM-R, a research version of the model programmed for this thesis. There are some differences between the SCFM and the SCFM-R that yield important information. It is found that the SCFM is very sensitive to how cloud cover in the boundary layer is diagnosed. An analysis of the diagnosis method used to initialize the model reveals a bias for over-diagnosing cloud at lower levels and under-diagnosing cloud at upper levels. Also, it is recommended that AFWA consider exchanging temperature for another predictor more related to moisture, such as cloud water, and that relative humidity be included as relative humidity to the fourth power. Other recommendations include improving the method for diagnosing cloud cover in the boundary layer and improving the model initial condition. KEYWORDS: Clouds, Cloud Forecasting, Stochastic Cloud Model, Cloud Diagnosis, Stochastic Cloud Forecast Model

DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF CIRRUS IN A MESOSCALE MODEL Michael M. Lewis-Captain, United States Air Force

B.S., University of South Alabama, 1997 Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006

Advisor: Wendell A. Nuss, Department of Meteorology Second Reader: Phillip A. Durkee, Department of Meteorology

Cirrus cloud forecasting is of particular importance to various Department of Defense programs. This thesis takes a case study approach to study Air Force Weather Agency mesoscale model 5 (AFWA MM5) skill in forecasting cirrus clouds, which are not represented explicitly by the model (ice water mixing ratio is used as a surrogate.) Two cases are selected for study. For each case, an initial forecast time of interest is determined, which serves as the beginning point for the case study. Geostationary satellite data and three-hourly MM5 data are then obtained at three-hour intervals to coincide with model forecast time steps between the initial time through the 30-hour forecast. A standard analysis is performed on all data to determine general atmospheric structure for each case at each three-hourly point. Following this, the model’s relative humidity with respect to ice, explicit ice water content, vertical velocity, and other fields are considered to determine if the model possesses the proper dynamical factors for cirrus formation. Finally, model coverage of ice cloud is compared to the atmospheric boundary layer cloud mask results to determine how well the model’s ice cloud forecasts verify against each three-hourly observed ice water field taken from the GOES data.

Results indicate that the MM5 underforecasts cirrus coverage, and that the 90% relative humidity field with respect to ice may be a better approximation of observed cirrus coverage than the ice water field. KEYWORDS: Cirrus, MM5, Mesoscale Model, Laser, ABL, Satellite, GOES

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EVALUATION OF THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY (AFWA) WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING (WRF) 4-KM MOVING NEST MODEL PREDICTIONS FOR WESTERN

NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES William R. Ryerson-Captain, United States Air Force

B.S., Pennsylvania State University, 2001 Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006

Advisor: Russell L. Elsberry, Department of Meteorology Second Reader: Lt Col Karl D. Pfeiffer, USAF, Department of Meteorology

The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) version of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model with a moving 4-km nested grid is examined for 10 track and intensity predictions of six western North Pacific tropical cyclones during 2005. In three of the 10 integrations, the ARW vortex tracker algorithm based on the 500-mb height minimum fails to appropriately move the nest and thus loses track of the storm vortex. For the other seven cases, the ARW track forecasts are more skillful than the AFWA MM5 forecasts and (except at 12 h) the CLIPER-type forecasts. The ARW intensity forecasts are less skillful than the MM5 and CLIPER-type forecasts at all forecast intervals, and are severely degraded by a large negative bias at the initial time. The deficiency in these intensity forecasts is shown to be related to model spin-up (lasting 12-54 h) problems caused by the lack of a bogus vortex and a cold start initialization from the interpolation of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis to the 12-km and 4-km grids. Thus, a more appropriate initial vortex representation will be required to improve intensity forecasts. KEYWORDS: Numerical Weather Prediction, Tropical Meteorology, Weather Research and Forecasting Model, Tropical Cyclone Track, Tropical Cyclone Intensity, Tropical Cyclone Prediction

PROTOTYPE DEVELOPMENT OF MACHINE-TO-MACHINE OPERATIONAL NEPHANALYSIS

Jon M. Schiefelbein-Captain, United States Air Force B.G.S., University of Nebraska at Omaha, 2000 Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006

Advisor: Lt Col Karl D. Pfeiffer, USAF, Department of Meteorology Second Reader: Carlyle H. Wash, Department of Meteorology

Weather is essentially geo-spatial data that can be integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In this research, a small prototype is designed and developed in order to demonstrate the basic capabilities of GIS-enabled operational meteorology. As the Air Force moves to net-centric operations, enabling weather information across an enterprise GIS is essential. Providing images is a fast and efficient means of enabling weather in a GIS. Providing the information in raw format is a better way to distribute GIS enabled weather. Since operators and users may still require an image format, both information and images should be provided. In order to provide the best possible support, Air Force Weather needs to rethink how it provides weather information, especially in a net-centric force. Weather has been slow to adopt this approach for various reasons, such as a lack of bandwidth. The lack of resolution and accuracy of the numerical models is also a key consideration. While the models are still imperfect, their spatial resolution is now good enough to be used realistically in a GIS environment. The prototype developed for this research shows real-time delivery of weather information in GIS is possible and practical. KEYWORDS: GIS, Weather Real-Time Nephanalysis, WMS, WFS

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NORTH PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICAN CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION

Adam J. Stepanek-Captain, United States Air Force B.S., Valparaiso University, 2001

Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006 Advisors: Tom Murphree, Department of Meteorology

Carlyle H. Wash, Department of Meteorology The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been associated with extreme precipitation events in western North America. However, the mechanisms for and predictability of these associations are not clear. Researchers examine the influence of the MJO on North Pacific - North America (NPNA) circulation and precipitation anomalies. Researchers construct composites of MJO events determined from the Wheeler RMM1/RMM2 index of MJO activity. Analyses are based on NCEP reanalysis data. Investigations focus on the impacts on NPNA circulation and precipitation of 1) the location and amplitude of the MJO, 2) the season of MJO occurrence, and 3) concurrent El Niño (EN) or La Niña (LN) events.

Researchers find that the NPNA response to MJO activity is sensitive to the location of both the convective and subsidence components of the MJO, the season of MJO occurrence, and the existence of concurrent EN or LN events. EN or LN events affect the extra-tropical response to the MJO by altering the equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave response to the MJO. This affects the anomalous extra-tropical wave trains initiated by the MJO, and alters the resulting NPNA precipitation anomalies. Results provide a foundation for improving extended range forecasts of NPNA circulation and precipitation. KEYWORDS: Madden-Julian Oscillation, Teleconnections, El Niño, La Niña, Climatology, Precipitation Anomalies

CONVECTIVE INDICES FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC Matthew B. Stratton-Captain, United States Air Force

B.S., North Carolina State University, 1997 Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006

Advisor: Patrick A. Harr, Department of Meteorology Second Reader: Russell L. Elsberry, Department of Meteorology

Within the Pacific Air Force’s (PACAF) area of responsibility, tropical deep convection that is not associated with tropical cyclones can cause significant impacts to operations. In this study, convective indices calculated from five sites in the central and western tropical North Pacific are examined with respect to their ability to predict the onset and intensity of deep convection. Two predictands are utilized: measures of convection derived from surface weather observations and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) blended rain-rate estimates, which are derived from infrared and microwave satellite observations and interpolated to the five sites. Eighteen indices derived from rawinsondes are ranked by predictive skill for specific locations and seasons. Indices that exhibit significant skill are used in a discriminant analysis to define a multivariate, experimental, tropical convective index, which is then evaluated for each region and season. The multivariate index is not able to discriminate between convective and non-convective environments over the central North Pacific. Although the multivariate index exhibits skill for sites in the tropical western North Pacific during summer, it does not perform better than the highest-ranked single indices. For many of the locations and seasons evaluated, the Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT) Index exhibits the most skill. KEYWORDS: Convective Indices, Mesoscale Convection, Tropical Convection, Convective Initiation, Forecasting Convection, Operational Weather Squadron Forecasts, Point Forecasts, Area Forecasts, Naval Research Laboratory Blended Rain Rate

METEOROLOGY

51

THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL SCALE CLIMATE VARIATIONS ON SOUTHWEST ASIA Damon C. Vorhees-Captain, United States Air Force

B.S., Pennsylvania State University, 2000 Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006

Advisor: Tom Murphree, Department of Meteorology Second Reader: Lt Col Karl D. Pfeiffer, USAF, Department of Meteorology

Researchers examine the impacts of global scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variations on Southwest Asia (SWA). The variations of primary interest are El Niño-La Niña (ENLN), the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The impacts of primary interest are on fall-winter precipitation and temperature in SWA and associated lower and upper level circulation anomalies in the eastern hemisphere. Primary data sets are National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis fields and indices of ENLN, IOZM, MJO, and NAO activity.

Researchers identify several upper and lower level circulation anomaly patterns that are directly linked to both the primary climate variations and to anomalous precipitation in SWA. The circulation anomalies associated with positive and negative precipitation anomalies are similar for ENLN, IOZM, MJO, and NAO periods. The mechanisms for these circulation anomalies involve equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave dynamics and related alterations of the southwesterly and northeasterly monsoon flows, tropical easterly jet and subtropical jet in northeast Africa and SWA, and the tropical Africa-Indian Ocean-western tropical Pacific region. Much of the impact on precipitation occurs through anomalous moisture advection over the tropical northwest Indian Ocean, and tropical and subtropical North Africa; and anomalous moisture convergence over SWA.

ENLN, IOZM, MJO, and NAO occur at intra-seasonal to inter-annual scales, and are relatively predictable once initiated. Thus, there appears to be significant potential for improving intra-seasonal, inter-annual forecasts for SWA. The Department of Defense (DoD) still relies on long-term means of quantities, such as winds, cloud cover, and precipitation, to provide planning products to the field. Researchers feel that by incorporating the anomalies associated with the climate variations discussed here, the DoD could add significant value to their climatology products. KEYWORDS: El Niño, La Niña, Indian Ocean Dipole, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode, Madden-Julian Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Long Term Mean, Climate, Climate Variations, Southwest Asia, Teleconnections, Smart Climatology, Climatological Support, Moisture Advection

THE IMPACT OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW ON SEA BREEZE FRONT PROPAGATION AND INTENSITY AT EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE James C. Weaver-Captain, United States Air Force

B.S., North Carolina State University, 1996 Master of Science in Meteorology-March 2006

Advisor: Wendell A. Nuss, Department of Meteorology Second Reader: Haflidi H. Jonsson, Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies

This study investigates the impact of the synoptic-scale flow on the propagation and intensity of the sea breeze front at Eglin Air Force Base. The period of study is May through September from 2001 to 2005. The 925 mb wind direction and speed from the 12 UTC Tallahassee sounding is used to categorize 509 days as having an offshore, onshore, or coast parallel synoptic-scale flow regime. Days with similar synoptic-scale flows are then composited together to create hourly surface analyses for each regime. Sea breeze front genesis, location, and intensity are analyzed using hourly plots of temperature, winds, and frontogenesis.

Results indicate that the most intense sea breeze fronts formed under 3-5 1

ms!

offshore, 7-9 1

ms!

coast parallel easterly, and 3-5 1

ms!

coast parallel westerly synoptic-scale flow, while the weakest fronts

formed under 0-3 1

ms!

onshore and coast parallel westerly flow. The inland penetration of the sea breeze front is restricted under offshore synoptic-scale flow, but propagated through the entire Eglin Range Complex under onshore flow.

METEOROLOGY

52

The intensity of the sea breeze front is found to be a balance between convergence (frontogenetic) and turbulent mixing (frontolytic). Under onshore flow, the sea breeze front forms late in the afternoon when convergence at the front is maximized and turbulent mixing decreases. Under offshore flow, the strongest sea breeze fronts forms early in the afternoon due to strong convergence between offshore and onshore winds and weak turbulent mixing. KEYWORDS: Sea Breeze, Sea Breeze Front, Synoptic-Scale Flow, Coastline Curvature, Eglin Air Force Base

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN METEOROLOGY AND PHYSICAL

OCEANOGRAPHY

53

MINE DROP EXPERIMENT II WITH OPERATIONAL MINESHAPES (MIDEX II) Charles R. Allen-Lieutenant, United States Navy

B.S., Ohio State University, 1999 Master of Science in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography-March 2006

Advisor: Peter C. Chu, Department of Oceanography Second Reader: Peter Fleischer, Naval Oceanographic Office

The Navy’s Impact Burial Model (IMPACT35) predicts the cylindrical mine trajectory in air and water columns, and burial depth and orientation in sediment. Impact burial calculations are derived primarily from the sediment characteristics and from the mine’s three-dimensional air and water phase trajectories. Accurate burial prediction requires that the model’s water phase trajectory reasonably mimics the object’s true trajectory. In order to determine what effect varying the shape to more closely match real-world mines has on the shape’s water phase trajectory, Mine Drop Experiment II is conducted. The experiment consists of dropping four separate types of scaled shapes (Sphere, Gumdrop, Manta, and Rockan) into a water column. The resultant falls are filmed from two nearly orthogonal angles. Initial drop position, initial velocities, and the drop angle are controlled parameters. The Sphere and Gumdrop shapes tend to have smooth arcing drop paths. The Manta shape drops much more slowly than the Sphere or Gumdrop shapes. The Manta has a tendency to either fall in a spiral with its bottom parallel to the bottom or on its side in a twisting motion. The Rockan tends to either flip or swoop as it enters the water, but then settles in a slow spin with its primary length parallel to the bottom. The dispersion of all four shapes at the selected depth of 2.5 m is wide and variable. The data collected from the experiment can be used to develop and validate the mine Impact Burial Prediction Model with operational, non-cylindrical mine shapes. KEYWORDS: Mine Impact Burial, Hydrodynamics, IMPACT35, Bottom Mine, Mine Countermeasures, Mine Trajectory

IMPACT OF GFO SATELLITE AND OCEAN NOWCAST/FORECAST SYSTEMS ON NAVAL ANTISUBMARINE WARFARE (ASW)

Guillermo R. Amezaga, Jr.-Lieutenant, United States Naval Reserve B.A., University of Colorado-Boulder, 2001

Master of Science in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography-March 2006 Advisor: Peter C. Chu, Department of Oceanography

Second Reader: Eric L. Gottshall, Office of Naval Research, London The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the value-added of the Navy’s nowcast/forecast and GeoSat Follow-On satellite to naval antisubmarine warfare (ASW) and anti-surface warfare. For the former, the nowcast/forecast versus observational fields are used by the Weapon Acoustic Preset Program (WAPP) to determine the suggested presets for Mk-48 variant torpedo. The metric used to compare the two sets of outputs is the relative difference in acoustic coverage area generated by WAPP. Output presets are created for five different scenarios, two anti-surface warfare scenarios and three ASW scenarios, in each of two regions: the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Analysis of the output reveals that Princeton Ocean Model (POM) outperforms the Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) in all tactic scenarios. For the latter, the MODAS (T, S) profiles are used by the WAPP to determine suggested presets for the Mk-48 variant torpedo. The only difference in the MODAS fields is the altimeter used to initialize the respective MODAS fields. The same metrics used in the nowcast/forecast case are used to generate and compare the acoustic coverages. Analysis of the output reveals that, in most situations, WAPP output is not very sensitive to the difference in altimeter orbit.

METEOROLOGY AND PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY

54

KEYWORDS: Satellite Altimetry, MODAS, Anti-Submarine Warfare, ASW, MK-48 Torpedo, WAPP, POM, GFO, Topex

ENHANCEMENT OF THE DAYTIME MODIS BASED AIRCRAFT ICING POTENTIAL ALGORITHM USING MESOSCALE MODEL DATA Michael James Cooper-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1996 Master of Science in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography-March 2006

Advisor: Phillip A. Durkee, Department of Meteorology Second Reader: Carlyle H. Wash, Department of Meteorology

In this thesis, MM5 mesoscale model data are examined to determine its utility in enhancing satellite-based aircraft icing analysis. The algorithm by Alexander (2005) is used to process MODIS imagery on four separate storms in January 2006, and his algorithm is validated using 133 positive and negative pilot reports (PIREPs). MM5 mesoscale model soundings are then analyzed to determine the temperature (T) and dewpoint temperature (Td) at the altitude and location of each PIREP. Relative humidity (RH) is calculated, and fuzzy logic is used to determine the aircraft icing potential associated with the T and RH model-based parameters through the use of operational Current Icing Potential (CIP) T and RH interest maps, and the T interest map used in Alexander’s algorithm. Model icing potential is calculated using 16 different methods, and it is found that weighting RH more in the calculation added the most value to the MODIS based algorithm. It is also found that the Alexander’s T interest map added value to the MODIS based algorithm in every case, while the CIP based T interest map only added value when RH is weighted higher. KEYWORDS: MODIS, Aircraft Icing, Multispectral Satellite Analysis, MM5 Model, Pilot Report Validation

BOMB STRIKE EXPERIMENT FOR MINE-CLEARANCE OPERATIONS Gregory P. Ray-Lieutenant, United States Naval Reserve

B.S., Texas A&M University, 2000 Master of Science in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography-March 2006

Advisor: Peter C. Chu, Department of Oceanography Second Reader: Peter Fleischer, Naval Oceanographic Office, Mississippi

The Bomb Strike Experiment for Mine Countermeasure Operations, currently sponsored through the Office of Naval Research Mine Impact Burial Prediction Project, is part of a multi-year, comprehensive effort aimed at enhancing the Navy’s fleet naval mine clearance capability and success. The investigation discussed in this paper examines the experimental and theoretical characteristics of a rigid body falling through the air, water, and sediment column at high speed. Several experiments are conducted to launch bomb-like rigid bodies with a density ratio similar to operational munitions, namely the MK-84 general-purpose bomb, into a hydrodynamic test tank. Careful observations of the bomb-like rigid body’s position and orientation are collected and analyzed to produce a series of three-dimensional coordinate time-space data tables and plots. The resulting data set reveals a strong correlation between shape type and trajectory and dispersion patterns for rigid bodies moving through the water column at high velocity. This data will be used for numerical verification of the initial three-dimensional model (STRIKE35) aimed at predicting the overall trajectory, maneuvering, burial depth, and orientation of a falling high-velocity rigid body in the air-water-sediment column. The long-term goal of this project is to improve warhead lethality for use in quick, precise, and accurate strikes on known enemy naval minefields in the littoral combat environment. KEYWORDS: Hydrodynamics, STRIKE35, Mine Countermeasures, Bomb Trajectory, Mine Clearance, Hydroballistics

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN MODELING, VIRTUAL ENVIRONMENTS, AND

SIMULATION

55

DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED 3D TERRAIN MAPS FOR UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE (UAV) FLIGHT AND MISSION CONTROL SUPPORT SYSTEM (FMCSS)

Jasur S. Khakimbaev-Captain, Uzbekistan Army Higher Education, Tashkent Automobile and Road Construction Institute, 1994

M.B.A, University of World Economy and Diplomacy-Uzbekistan, Tashkent, 1996 Master of Science in Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation-March 2006

Advisors: Wolfgang Baer, Department of Information Sciences Curtis L. Blais, MOVES Institute

The purpose of this thesis is to conduct the research necessary to develop integrated 3D terrain maps capable of supporting an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Flight Mission Control Support Systems (FMCSS). In this work, the author explores the feasibility of exploiting digital topographic maps and further understanding the digital terrain support available to UAV FMCSS developers.

This thesis explores numerous digital terrain data representations and tools available to create digital environments. This work examines and provides a methodology for how to find, process, and operate with these environments. To accomplish this, the author explores the more general problem of where to find the data, what tools are available, and how to put the pieces together to create a registered digital environment on a state-of-the-art computer.

This work provides a logical construct and design methodology for an analyst to create high fidelity terrain data sets. It functions as a “How To” manual to help analysts understand which information and tools are available to use for different types of simulation projects. KEYWORDS: Terrain Data Representation, Terrain Data Format, Perspective View Nascent Technologies

SAVAGE MODELING ANALYSIS LANGUAGE (SMAL): DEFINING THE LINK BETWEEN SIMULATION AND THREE-DIMENSIONAL VISUALIZATION USING

EXTENSIBLE MARKUP LANGUAGE Travis M. Rauch-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

B.A., Lafayette College, 1994 Master of Science in Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation-March 2006

Advisor: Don Brutzman, MOVES Institute Second Reader: Jeffrey D. Weekley, MOVES Institute

Visualizing operations environments in three-dimensions is in keeping with the military’s drive to increase the speed and accuracy with which warfighters make decisions in the command center and in the field. Three-dimensional (3D) environments support speed in decision-making by presenting complex systems in an integrated, naturalistic display format. Constructing these environments is a time-consuming task requiring specific expertise not typically available in the command center. The future use of 3D visualization in military operations depends on the ability to create virtual environments quickly and accurately, utilizing personnel with minimal graphics experience leveraging data available in the command center. It depends on auto-generation.

Assembling and making sense of data necessary to auto-generate a 3D environment requires context and good documentation, best accomplished using metadata. Metadata supports data-centric component-based design - key philosophies in promoting interoperability of networked applications.

MODELING, VIRTUAL ENVIRONMENTS, AND SIMULATION

56

This thesis proposes an XML metadata standard to collect and organize the information necessary to create and populate a 3D virtual environment. The logical extension of a well-designed standard is the ability to cross the boundaries of usage, allowing simulators to share data with command and control suites and mission planning tools based on the construction of a virtual scene. KEYWORDS: 3D, Battlespace Visualization, Auto-generation, Extensible Markup Language, XML, X3D

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH

57

OPTIMIZED RECOVERY OF DAMAGED ELECTRICAL POWER GRIDS Chee Chien Ang-Republic of Singapore DSO National Laboratories

B.Eng., National University of Singapore Master of Science in Operations Research-March 2006

Advisors: Javier Salmeron, Department of Operations Research R. Kevin Wood, Department of Operations Research

Second Reader: Steven M. Rinaldi, Sandia National Laboratories This thesis formulates and solves a mixed-integer program to plan the recovery of an electrical power transmission grid that has been damaged by a natural disaster or terrorist attack. The damage can be extensive and recovery can take weeks or months. An efficient recovery plan that maximizes the utilization of repair resources can help ensure swift restoration of services.

The network recovery-planning model is implemented in General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) and uses Cplex as the solver. An electrical grid based on IEEE’s 300-bus transmission network is used for testing. To simulate varying degrees of damage to the network, researchers choose up to 20% of the grid’s lines, buses, and transformers to be placed out of service. Based on the availability of repair resources, the repair-time horizon, and penalties for unserved demand, the model produces a repair schedule that minimizes the cost of power shed.

Researchers demonstrate that for a network with up to 8% of its components damaged, the model can produce an optimal recovery plan within 20 minutes on a two GHz personal computer. For the largest test-case, with 20% of network components damaged, the recovery plan is within 7% of optimal after one hour of solver time. KEYWORDS: Electrical Power Grid, Network Recovery, Mixed Integer Programming, GAMS

USING INTEGRATED MECHANICAL DIAGNOSTICS HEALTH AND USAGE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (IMD-HUMS) DATA TO PREDICT UH-60L ELECTRICAL

GENERATOR CONDITION Lee B. Willard-Lieutenant Colonel, United States Marine Corps

B.S., University of Texas, 1986 Master of Science in Operations Research-March 2006

Gregory A. Klesch-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., Old Dominion University, 1992

Master of Science in Operations Research-March 2006 Advisor: Lyn R. Whitaker, Department of Operations Research

Second Reader: Samuel E. Buttrey, Department of Operations Research Military aircraft maintenance methods are moving from practices based on hard-time inspection and replacement intervals to one of condition-based maintenance (CBM). The latter practice allows the ability to forego scheduled maintenance on components or systems that have reached their high times but are not in need of maintenance or replacement. Benefits of CBM are the minimization of maintenance efforts and component replacement, along with an increase in readiness and safety.

Goodrich Corporation has developed the integrated mechanical diagnostics health and usage management system (IMD-HUMS) for the practice of CBM in helicopters. Great benefits have already been realized by using the UH-60L helicopter military unit with the IMD-HUMS system in regards to several maintenance practices, readiness, and safety.

However, the total potential of the system, in regards to these benefits for the multiple components observed by the IMD-HUMS, is not yet achieved. The IMD-HUMS gathers a great deal of pertinent,

OPERATIONS RESEARCH

58

important data on the condition of multiple components and systems, but the meaning and full potential of all this data is not yet fully realized.

The purpose of this research is to conduct and document the statistical analysis of IMD-HUMS produced data. Statistical applications of logistic regression and random forest of classification trees are explored. The approaches used in the exploration of the IMD-HUMS acquisition data sets are based on six electrical generators that displayed degradation or failure—and hence required maintenance actions—compared with sixty others that did not. This thesis focuses on using the combination of resulting vibratory patterns and maintenance records from one type of component, the electrical generator of the UH-60L helicopter, to forecast the need for maintenance. Data acquired from the IMD-HUMS is used in an attempt to understand and predict health predictions of the UH-60L electrical generator, and in hopes of gaining insights in developing component health predictions from IMD-HUMS data for other components.

This thesis discusses how the resulting predicted health classifications compare to how each of the generators are currently classified. In this process, some surprising cases of generator health classification are uncovered. One generator, which was wrongly presumed to be bad, and another generator, which was wrongly assumed to be good, are predicted correctly by this study's classification scheme. The thesis demonstrates that two different models—logistic regression and random forest of classification trees—can be fit using IMD-HUMS data collected with known cases of failed generators and properly operating generators. These models can predict the overall state of a UH-60L electrical generator. KEYWORDS: Data Mining, Variable Selection, Regression, Trending, IMD-HUMS, Aggregated Classification Trees, Conditional Based Maintenance

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY

59

TYPHOON EFFECTS ON THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WAVE CHARACTERISTICS DURING WINTER MONSOON

Kuo-Feng Cheng-Lieutenant, Taiwan Navy B.S., National Cheng Kung University, 1999

Master of Science in Physical Oceanography-March 2006 Advisor: Peter C. Chu, Department of Oceanography

Second Reader: Timour Radko, Department of Oceanography Ocean wave characteristics in the western Atlantic Ocean (Hurricane Region) to tropical cyclones have been well identified, but not the regional seas in the western Pacific, e.g., the South China Sea (Typhoon Region). This is due to the lack of observational and modeling studies in the regional seas of the western Pacific. To fill this gap, Wavewatch-III (WW3) is used to study the response of the South China Sea (SCS) to Typhoon Muifa (2004). The major goals are to find the similarity and dissimilarity of wave characteristics between the two regions, and to evaluate the WW3 capability to typhoon forcing. The WW3 model is integrated from the Joint North Sea Wave Observation Project (JONSWAP) wave spectra with a tropical cyclone wind profile model, simulating Typhoon Muifa, from 16 to 25 November 2004. This study shows strong similarities in the responses between Hurricane and Typhoon Regions, including strong asymmetry in the significant wave height (Hs) along the typhoon translation track with the maximum Hs in the right-front quadrant of the typhoon center, and asymmetry in the directional wave spectra at different locations (frontward, backward, rightward, and leftward) around the typhoon center. The unique features of the SCS wave characteristics to Muifa are also discussed. KEYWORDS: South China Sea, Sea Surface Wave, Numerical Simulation, WAVEWATCH-III, Typhoon Muifa (2004), Winter Monsoon, Tropical Cyclone Wind Profile Model

DETERMINATION OF CHANGES IN THE STATE OF THE ARCTIC ICE PACK USING THE NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL PAN-ARCTIC COUPLED ICE-OCEAN MODEL

Terry P. McNamara-Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., Cornell University, 1999

Master of Science in Physical Oceanography-March 2006 Advisor: Wieslaw Maslowski, Department of Oceanography

Second Reader: H. Jay Zwally, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center

This thesis provides an analysis of the diminishing sea ice trend in the Arctic Ocean by examining the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) 1/12-degree pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean model. While many previous studies have analyzed changes in ice extent and concentration, this research focuses on ice thickness as it gives a better indication of ice volume variability. The skill of the model is examined by comparing its output to sea ice thickness data gathered during the last two decades. The first dataset used is the collection of draft measurements conducted by U.S. Navy submarines between 1986 and 1999. The second is electromagnetic (EM) induction ice thickness measurements gathered using a helicopter by the Alfred Wegener Institute in April 2003. Last, model output is compared with data collected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) ICESat program using a laser altimeter mounted on a satellite of the same name.

The NPS model indicates an accelerated thinning trend in Arctic sea ice during the last decade. The validation of model output with submarine, EM and ICESat data supports this result. This lends credence to the postulation that the Arctic not only might be, but is likely to be, ice-free during the summer in the near future.

PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY

60

KEYWORDS: Polar Oceanography, Arctic Ice Pack, Ice Thickness Distribution, Arctic Ocean Modeling, Submarine Upward-Looking Sonar, ULS, Helicopter Electro-Magnetic Ice Thickness Survey, EM, ICESat, Climate Change

ALASKAN STREAM CIRCULATION AND EXCHANGES THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND PASSES: 1979-2003 MODEL RESULTS

Ricardo Roman-Lieutenant, United States Naval Reserve B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1999

Master of Science in Physical Oceanography-March 2006 Advisor: Wieslaw Maslowski, Department of Oceanography

Second Reader: Stephen Okkonen, Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska The objective of this research is to examine the long-term variability in the flow of the Alaskan Stream, as well as the northward transport through three selected Aleutian Island passes. Taking into consideration that upper ocean water properties, and in part circulation, in the Bering Sea are derived from northward flow through the Aleutians, it is important to understand how different anomalies in the movement of the Alaskan Stream might alter this communication with the Bering Sea. In the past, observational data has frequently underestimated the strength of the Alaskan Stream, basing measurements of geostrophic velocity on levels of no motion at either 1000m or 1500m. Using a 25-year (1979-2003) ice-ocean model, the results presented in this study indicate that the Alaskan Stream transport is not only significantly larger than previously reported, but that westward flow extends to depths >4000 m. Research is also conducted on the magnitude and frequency of eddy-induced changes to the path and strength of the Alaskan Stream. These changes can significantly impact northward flow through the Aleutian passes. This region is also of particular interest to the U.S. military. As recent observational and model studies have predicted future reductions of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean, foreign military traffic might increase through the North Pacific Ocean, specifically the Aleutian Island passes, as countries begin to explore and conduct exercises within the Arctic region. This would increase the importance of understanding acoustic properties within the Aleutian Island region, which is of relevance to undersea warfare. KEYWORDS: Oceanography, Modeling, Alaskan Stream, Aleutian Passes

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

61

STANDARDS INTEROPERABILITY: APPLICATION OF CONTEMPORARY SOFTWARE ASSURANCE STANDARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF LEGACY SOFTWARE

Desmond J. Meacham-Flight Lieutenant, Royal Australian Air Force B.Eng., University of Newcastle, 2000

Master of Science in Software Engineering-March 2006 Advisor: James Bret Michael, Department of Computer Science

Second Reader: Jeffrey M. Voas, SAIC, Inc. This thesis addresses software evolution from the perspective of standards interoperability. Researchers address the issue of how to apply contemporary software safety assurance standards to legacy safety-critical systems, with the aim of re-certifying the legacy systems to the contemporary standards. The application of RTCA DO-178B “Software Considerations in Airborne Systems and Equipment Certification” to modified legacy software is the primary focus of this thesis. A model is presented to capture the relationships between pre- and post-modification software and standards. The proposed formal model is then applied to the requirements for RTCA DO-178B and MIL-STD-498 as representative examples of contemporary and legacy software standards. The results provide guidance on how to achieve airworthiness certification for modified legacy software, while maximizing the use of software products from the previous development. KEYWORDS: Airworthiness, Legacy Software, MIL-STD-498, RTCA DO-178B, Software Assurance, Software Certification, Software Evolution, Standards Interoperability, Software Reuse, Abstract Algebra

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING

63

ISOLATED WORD RECOGNITION FROM IN-EAR MICROPHONE DATA USING HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS (HMM)

Remzi Serdar Kurcan-Lieutenant Junior Grade, Turkish Navy B.S., Turkish Naval Academy, 1999

Master of Science in Electrical Engineering-March 2006 Master of Science in Systems Engineering-March 2006

Advisors: Monique P. Fargues, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering David C. Jenn, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Second Reader: Ravi Vaidyanathan, Department of Systems Engineering This thesis is part of an ongoing larger-scale research study started in 2004 at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS). The aim of the study is to develop a speech-driven human-machine interface for the operation of semi-autonomous military robots in noisy operational environments. Earlier work included collecting a small database of isolated word utterances, seven words from 20 adult subjects, using an in-ear microphone. The research conducted here develops a speaker-independent isolated word recognizer from these acoustic signals based on a discrete-observation Hidden Markov Model (HMM).

The study implements the HMM-based isolated word recognizer in three steps. The first step performs the endpoint detection and speech segmentation by using short-term temporal analysis. The second step includes speech feature extraction using static and dynamic Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) parameters and vector quantization of continuous-valued speech features. Finally, the last step involves the discrete-observation HMM-based classifier for isolated word recognition. Experimental results show the average classification performance to be around 92.77%. The most significant result of this study is that the acoustic signals originating from speech organs and collected within the external ear canal via the in-ear microphone can be used for isolated word recognition.

The second dataset, collected under low signal-to-noise ratio conditions with additive noise, results in 79% recognition accuracy in the HMM-based classifier. Researchers also compare the classification results of the data collected within the ear canal and outside the mouth via the same microphone. Average classification rates obtained for the data collected outside the mouth show significant performance degradation (down to 63%) over that observed with the data collected from within the ear canal (down to 86%). Recall that the ear canal dampens high frequencies. As a result, the HMM model derived for the data with dampened higher frequencies does not accurately fit the data collected outside the mouth, resulting in degraded recognition performances. KEYWORDS: In-Ear Microphone, Isolated Word Recognition, IWR, Short-Term Energy, STE, Zero-Crossing Rate, ZCR, Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients, MFCC, LPC-Derived Cepstral Coefficients, LPC-CC, Vector Quantization, VQ, K-Means Clustering Algorithm, Hidden Markov Models, HMM, Forward-Backward Algorithm, Baum-Welch Re-Estimation Algorithm, Viterbi Algorithm

SYSTEMS ENGINEERING

64

OPERATION OF LONG-HAUL NON-LOS WIRELESS TACTICAL NETWORKS Christoforos P. Zachariadis-Major, Hellenic Army

B.S., Hellenic Army Academy, 1986 Master of Science in Information Technology Management-March 2006

Master of Science in Systems Engineering-March 2006 Advisor: Alexander Bordetsky, Department of Information Sciences

Second Reader: Maj Carl Oros, USMC, Department of Information Sciences In this thesis, researchers examine the applicability of 802.16 Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) wireless technology to support a range of military operations that require mobility and a highly adaptive, ad-hoc organization. Three techniques are used to assess the operation of the 802.16 Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) test bed for its quality requirements: field experimentation scenarios, network performance management tools, and modeling tools. First, researchers explore the network performance patterns at layer two and layer three and their association with application performance in a holistic network behavior model. Second, researchers identify critical military applications and diagnose performance issues using OPNET Modeler ACE. Finally, this study shows how the combination of a well-planned network management and collaborative technology creates a desirable situational awareness for network operators. KEYWORDS: 802.16 OFDM, Network Performance, OPNET Modeler ACE, Solar Winds, NOC, Collaborative Tools, Situational Awareness

65

MASTER OF ARTS

National Security Affairs Security Studies

Homeland Security Affairs National Security Affairs

Security Studies

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MASTER OF ARTS

IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS

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RUSSIA’S NATIONAL INTERESTS IN THE TRANSCAUCASUS AND THE U.S. POLICY: IMPLICATIONS FOR ARMENIAN NATIONAL SECURITY

Armen V. Abelyan-Civilian, Armenian Ministry of Defense Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006

Advisors: Anne L. Clunan, Department of National Security Affairs Mikhail Tsypkin, Department of National Security Affairs

The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate Armenian foreign policy toward the two major regional players—the United States and Russia. What are the United States’ and Russia’s security, economic, political, and human rights interests in the South Caucasus? What are the regional security interdependencies and how are they influenced by these powers? What are the major determinants of Armenia’s foreign policy? In its pursuit of national interests, what should be Armenia’s foreign policy toward these powers? Answering these questions requires knowing Armenia’s geopolitical environment, security concerns, and historical experience.

This thesis finds that Armenia, despite its limited natural resource base and geopolitical complexities, has managed its foreign relations and has addressed its national security concerns quite well. It has maintained good relations with both Russia and the United States, helping to reduce regional polarization and its own security dependence on either of the powers. The flexibility of its policy has allowed Armenia to adjust easily to global geopolitical and regional trends. Increasing U.S. involvement in the South Caucasus and the U.S.–Russian strategic partnership have opened up new avenues for Armenia to strengthen its security. KEYWORDS: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, South Caucasus, Russia, United States, Turkey, Complementarity, Nagorno-Karabakh, Caspian Sea

ISLAMIC REVIVAL IN THE BALKANS Velko A. Attanassoff-Captain, Bulgarian Army

M.A., Bulgarian Military Academy “Vassil Levski,” 1998 Master of Science in Defense Analysis-March 2006

Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006 Advisors: Glenn Robinson, Department of Defense Analysis

Anne Marie Baylouny, Department of National Security Affairs The stance of the Balkans towards global Islamic extremism has been much discussed, but little subject to substantive comparative inquiry. In this thesis, social movement theory is utilized to analyze the relation between Islamic revivalism and the global Salafi jihad in the Balkans. Comparing Bosnia and Bulgaria, this research not only demonstrates the various manifestations of these phenomena, but also argues for a differentiated case-by-case approach when implementing the suggested analytical framework. The author effectively shows that the process of Islamic revivalism is mainly an imported phenomena maintained through financial and ideological support from the Middle East. The author also proves that there is no causal relationship between Islamic revivalism and global Salafi jihad. Yet, the findings of the case studies caution against the possibility of structural and ideological convergence of the two phenomena, which could effectively lead to the emergence of a permissive environment for the spread of global Salafi jihad. The author also argues that the current Islamic revival poses a security threat to the region due to its potential for developing into viable Islamic movements on the ground. The author concludes that to counter such security implications, the Balkan governments need to revisit their policies and adopt a proactive approach qualitatively different from the strategic framework of the U.S. Global War on Terrorism.

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KEYWORDS: Balkans, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Global Salafi Jihad, Global War on Terrorism, Islam, Islamic Radicalism, Islamic Revival, Islamic Transnational Advocacy Network, Islamism, Middle East, Muslim Minorities, Social Movement, Terrorism MILITARY FORCE AND CULTURE CHANGE: SYSTEMS, NARRATIVES, AND THE SOCIAL

TRANSMISSION OF BEHAVIOR IN COUNTER-TERRORISM STRATEGY William D. Casebeer-Major, United States Air Force

B.S., United States Air Force Academy, 1991 M.A., University of Arizona, 1996

Ph.D., University of California at San Diego, 2001 Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006

Advisor: James A. Russell, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Thomas H. Johnson, Department of National Security Affairs

U.S. national security strategy calls for the use of military force to shape cultures beyond U.S. borders. However, the relationship between the use of force and changes in cultural processes is poorly understood. Operationalizing culture as socially transmitted behavior, and treating culture systematically using open systems theory, best allows us to understand the perils and prospects of acting upon culture with force. In particular, this thesis explores the narrative and storytelling dimensions of culture, offering a theory of story that can be used to drive innovative counter-terrorism strategies and structure general principles for prevailing in the “story war.” Using case studies from the British Iraqi Mandate on the failure to treat culture systemically and from Hizballah on the generation of surrogate consciousness and alternate identity, this analysis derives general guidance for strategists and policymakers concerned about the force and culture equation. It can be used to generate new research programs in counter-terrorism (such as exploring the neural mechanisms undergirding radicalization), fill in gaps in intelligence collection and analysis, and pave the way for modeling and simulation of the force/culture interaction for the purposes of planning good effects-based operations. KEYWORDS: Force, Culture, Terrorism, Modeling, Simulation, Insurgency, Systems Theory, Narrative, Story, Freytag Triangle, Hizballah, Iraq, British Mandate, Cultural Intelligence, Surrogate Consciousness, Hearts and Minds, Identity, Cognitive Science, Radicalization, Social Movement Theory, Framing

THE MECHANICS OF RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN THE CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA – REGIONAL HEGEMONY OR NEO-IMPERIALISM?

Andrea L. Hlosek-Major, United States Air Force B.A., Arizona State University, 1991

Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006 Advisors: Anne L. Clunan, Department of National Security Affairs

Mikhail Tsypkin, Department of National Security Affairs Under President Putin, Russia’s foreign policy adopted the characteristics of Great Power Normalization, a pragmatic, economically-focused model described by Andrei Tsygankov. Its tenets include cooperative economic and security relationships with the West, including tolerance of a Western military presence in the Former Soviet Union (FSU); a refocused foreign policy toward the FSU designed to secure regional hegemony; and a de-emphasis of large-scale integration efforts, such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), in lieu of bilateral and regionally-focused multilateral efforts that elevate geo-economic goals over military presence. Russian foreign policy during President Putin’s second term of office, however, appears to have become more assertive, characterized by increasing conflict with CIS member Georgia, renewed military presence in Central Asia and the Caspian Basin at the expense of a Western presence, an aggressive energy agenda that has secured Russia large stakes in the FSU’s energy infrastructure, and a monopoly on regional oil and gas pipelines that export raw materials to outside markets. This thesis analyzes Russian influence in diplomatic, cultural, economic, and military efforts across two regions, the Caucasus and Central Asia, to determine whether Russia is merely pursuing regional hegemony or establishing neo-imperialistic ties in its backyard.


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KEYWORDS: Russia, Caucasus, Georgia, Central Asia, Uzbekistan, Russian Foreign Policy, Former Soviet Union, FSU, Diplomacy, Information, Economics, Military, DIME, Great Power Normalization, Neo-Imperialism

CONTEMPORARY RADICAL ISLAM AS A CONSEQUENCE OF TRADITIONAL LEGACIES AND GLOBALIZATION? A CASE STUDY OF THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES

Tonya M. Klempp-Captain, United States Air Force M.B.A., Troy State University, 2000

Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006 Advisor: Aurel S. Croissant, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Tuong Vu, Department of National Security Affairs

The most recent wave of Islamic revivalism began in the second half of the twentieth century as a nonviolent movement of expressing ideological differences and discontent with the political, economic, and social condition among Muslims. This revivalism inspired a reformation of the Muslim identity. Today, contemporary radical Islam, with militancy and terrorist tactics as its cornerstone, has all but overshadowed the call for a nonviolent struggle and has permeated several internal conflicts across the globe.

The Muslim separatist movement in the southern Philippines is one such conflict. Following decades of discontent and sporadic violence, conflict in the southern Philippines broke out in late 1972 when the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) launched coordinated attacks against the government. Following a failed peace agreement in 1976, divisions began to form within the MNLF and in 1984 the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) was formed. The MILF, as the name indicates, placed more emphasis on Islam. In 1991, the radical group Abu Sayyaf (Bearer of the Sword) broke off from the MNLF, once again claiming disagreement with the peace process. The Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) stated its main purpose as being the establishment of an Islamic state, based on Islamic law (shariah).

By the mid-1990s, what had originated as a nationalistic struggle advocating the concept of the “Moro” identity, had evolved and produced two increasingly radical groups. After conducting a diachronic comparative analysis, this thesis concludes contemporary radical Islam in the southern Philippines is a fusion of both traditionalism and globalization. Furthermore, the causal factors evolved with respect to each group’s ideology, objectives, and tactics. Whereas the MILF was more representative of the legacy of traditional Islam, the ASG was much more a product of globalization. KEYWORDS: Philippines, Moro, Radical Islam, Filipino Muslims, Traditional Islam, Globalization, MNLF, MILF, ASG, Mindanao, Terrorism, Conflict, Transnational Terrorism, History of the Philippines, U.S. Involvement in the Philippines

THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM IN THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT

Christian J. Lingenfelder-Captain, United States Air Force B.A., Northwestern College, 1994

Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006 Advisor: Daniel J. Moran, Department of National Security Affairs

Second Reader: Barak A. Salmoni, Marine Corps Training and Education Command Successive U.S. administrations have mired themselves in fruitless attempts to arrive at a peaceful conclusion to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Jewish and Islamic extremist groups have both been complicit in the delay, complication, and derailment of peace efforts undertaken by regional moderates and the international community. Whatever the ancillary secular motivations of these factions have been, both sides also lay claim to profound religious reasons for their opposition to peace.

Israeli religious Zionist extremists acting on a divine mandate have pressed to incorporate all of biblical Israel into their modern state, pursuing settlement activity and violence against Arabs and fellow Israelis to achieve this objective. Palestinian Islamic extremists claim justification from their scriptures for their war against the Jewish state and their ultimate goal of seeing it annihilated. These scriptural dogmas have been reified by religious leaders of both faiths, and have been utilized as ideological grounds for violence by their respective religious extremist groups.


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This work is an effort to expose the significant religious motivations propelling Zionist and Islamic extremist opponents of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process; seeking thereby to raise awareness of the origins of this complex and central dimension of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict among U.S. policymakers and intelligence analysts. KEYWORDS: Religious Extremism, Jihad, Zionist, Zionism, Islam, Islamic, Fundamentalism, God, Allah, Bible, Biblical, Torah, Tanakh, Qur’an, Qur’anic, Hadith, Ahadith, Israel, Palestine, Occupied Territories, Judea, Samaria, Gaza, Gush Emunim, Kach, Kahane Chai, Kahane, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Popular Resistance Committees, al-Quds, PIJ, PRC, Kook, al-Banna, Muslim Brotherhood, Peace, Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Al-Aqsa, Temple, Temple Mount

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING: REGIONAL REACTION TO A NUCLEAR-ARMED IRAN Peter N. Madson-Lieutenant, United States Navy

B.S., Northern Illinois University, 1994 Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006

Advisor: Peter Lavoy, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: James A. Russell, Department of National Security Affairs

Recent case studies suggest that states highly motivated to obtain nuclear weapons will eventually succeed. If Iran manages to go nuclear, as Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea have done, what will the Arabian Gulf region look like after Tehran acquires these weapons?

This thesis investigates the likely responses of Israel, the Arab Gulf States, and Pakistan to an Iran armed with nuclear weapons. A detailed examination of regional statements and media analysis shows that the region will likely not be further unbalanced. Instead, these states will pursue rational responses to diminish any Iranian threats.

This thesis argues that Israel will develop a mutually deterring relationship with Tehran. The Arab Gulf States will not yield to the temptation to develop domestic nuclear programs; instead they will continue to outsource state security needs. Pakistan, focused on India and lacking serious issues with Iran, will create an understanding to avoid conflict.

Iranian nuclear weapon acquisition will be universally unwelcome, but the United States can mitigate the negative impact by extending security guarantees to states requiring protection against a potentially more aggressive nuclear Iran. KEYWORDS: Iran, Nuclear, Proliferation, Pakistan, NATO, U.S., Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates

U.S. AND RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES OF IRAN: DIFFERENT VIEWS OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

Edward A. O’Connor-Major, United States Air Force B.A., University of Missouri-Rolla, 1990

Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006 Advisors: Anne L. Clunan, Department of National Security Affairs

Mikhail Tsypkin, Department of National Security Affairs Do Russia and the United States share the same views of nuclear proliferation? This thesis seeks to answer this question by considering the case of Iran. Both nations are concerned about the spread of nuclear weapons, yet have taken opposing stances on Iran’s nuclear program. The United States contends that Iran is using its civilian nuclear program to build an atomic weapon. Russia, on the other hand, does not publicly acknowledge such a view. The conclusions of this thesis are that threat perceptions have shaped U.S. and Russian views of nuclear proliferation. Both countries have supported Iran’s nuclear program, but their timing coincided with major shifts in Iran’s diplomatic orientation. When the Cold War ended, they were left with contrasting threat perceptions of Iran; Russia viewed Iran as a geo-strategic trading partner, while the United States viewed it as a sponsor of international terrorism. More importantly, this thesis highlights how vital it is for members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to remain united in their effort to curb the spread of nuclear weapons. If IAEA members cannot agree on the risks of


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proliferation, then the very foundation upon which the nonproliferation regime rests is in danger of obsolescence. KEYWORDS: U.S.-Iran Relations, Russia-Iran Relations, Soviet-Iran Relations, Nuclear Nonproliferation, Threat Perceptions, U.S. Views of Proliferation, Soviet and Russian Views of Proliferation

THE GROWING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOUTH KOREA AND CHINA: CONSEQUENCES FOR NORTH KOREA

Laura Renner-Captain, United States Air Force B.S., United States Air Force Academy, 2001

Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006 Advisors: Edward A. Olsen, Department of National Security Affairs

Christopher P. Twomey, Department of National Security Affairs After approximately forty years as enemies, South Korea and China normalized relations in 1992. This change has accelerated the growth of both of their already booming economies. Beyond that, it has helped propel Beijing into a pivotal role of influence since it now maintains friendly relations with both Koreas, currently the only country to do so. Nearly fifteen years after this normalization, South Korea and China still enjoy a strong relationship that generally continues to improve. Surprisingly, North Korea does not seem to oppose its staunch ally befriending its primary rival. This improving relationship and the effect it has on both states’ approaches to the North Korean crises hold vast implications for the changing power structure in the region and for the United States’ role in Asia. This thesis assesses which traditional international relations paradigm, Realism or Liberalism, provides the best insights into why South Korea and China desire a strong relationship with each other, find stronger support for Liberalism in South Korea, and for an adapted version of Realism in China. Furthermore, it examines North Korea’s position toward this growing relationship and its implications for Pyongyang. Finally, this thesis analyzes the implications for Japan and the United States and offers recommendations for U.S. policy makers. KEYWORDS: Six Party Talks, Korean Peninsula, Two Koreas, China, ROK’s Relations with PRC, DPRK and U.S., PRC’s Relations with ROK, DPRK and U.S., DPRK’s Relations with ROK, PRC and U.S., Realism, Liberalism

IMPLICATIONS OF SOCIETAL FRAGMENTATION FOR STATE FORMATION: CAN DEMOCRACY SUCCEED IN AFGHANISTAN?

Jeffrey D. Rhinefield-Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., Jacksonville University, 1998

Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006 Advisor: Thomas H. Johnson, Department of National Security Affairs

Second Reader: Timothy J. Doorey, Department of National Security Affairs Afghanistan is facing the daunting challenge of creating a stable, all-inclusive, and democratically based government that will be viewed as legitimate among all ethnic, social, and religious groups. This will be a great trial for Afghans, who for decades have faced the realities of ethnic fragmentation and its impact on politics, culture, and society of Afghanistan. The focus of this thesis is on ethnic fragmentation, nationalism, and social structure as they relate to state formation and democratic development. This thesis assumes these concepts are critical for democratic development in societies with multiple ethnic enclaves and multiple ethnic identities. Four former Afghan regimes are examined and used as case studies in this effort. Specifically, these regimes are analyzed in order to determine how each attempted to overcome cleavages within society during the process of state formation. The case study findings are then used prognostically to assess the current attempt to build a democratic Afghanistan. The thesis concludes with an assessment for success of the current Afghan government and presents recommendations for increasing the overall probability for Afghan democratic development and national cohesion.


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KEYWORDS: Afghanistan, Afghan, Amanullah Khan, Amir Habibullah Khan, China, Democracy, Democratic Development, Ethnic, Ethnic Conflict, Ethnic Fragmentation, Ethnic Identity, Hamid Karzai, Hazara, Iran, Islam, Jihad, Kabul, Loya Jirga, Muhammad Zahir Shah, Muhammad Daoud Khan, Nation, Nation-State, Nationalism, Pakistan, Pashtun, Pashtunwali, Religion, Russia, Tajik, Taliban, Tribal, Tribe, State, State Formation, Ulema, United State, Uzbek

AFGHANISTAN’S CONSTITUTIONS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR AFGHAN DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT

Zoe B. Sherman-Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., San Diego State University, 2000

Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006 Advisor: Thomas H. Johnson, Department of National Security Affairs

Second Reader: Karen Guttieri, Department of National Security Affairs Afghan constitutions have had a tendency to marginalize Afghan society. As a result, the continued ethnic fragmentation of Afghanistan has minimized the capacity of constitutions of the past to achieve societal stability. Instead, past Afghan constitutions have explicitly supported regimes, rather than address the problems of the fragmentation of Afghanistan into small ethnic, linguistic, familial, and in some cases, religious, elements. While Afghanistan’s current constitution accommodates the multi-ethnic pattern of Afghan society, it provides only a partial solution to the challenges of state building created by multi-ethnic societies. The central purpose of this thesis, therefore, is to determine the sustainability of Afghanistan’s current constitution by analyzing the legacy and impact of past constitutions on the current document and its relationship with Afghan society and polity. Each of Afghanistan’s constitutions of the past is missing important elements that prevented its impact on even the nearest reach of the rural tribal society. The realities of the 2003 Constitutional Loyal Jirga, the manner in which it represented the population, and the language that it codified in Afghanistan’s 2004 constitution will therefore have a lasting impact on Afghanistan’s future, as well as reveal critical policy implications regarding state building. KEYWORDS: Afghanistan, Constitutions, Ethnicity, Islam, Sovereignty, Democracy, State-Building

THE HOLY SEE AND THE MIDDLE EAST: THE PUBLIC DIPLOMACY OF POPE JOHN PAUL II

Ronald Patrick Stake-Lieutenant Commander, United Stated Naval Reserve B.A., DePaul University, 1970 M.A., DePaul University, 1973 J.D., DePaul University, 1976

L.L.M., University of Cambridge, 1979 S.T.B., University of Saint Mary of the Lake, 1983 M.Div., University of Saint Mary of the Lake, 1985

Diploma, Naval War College, 2002 Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006

Advisors: Anne Marie Baylouny, Department of National Security Affairs Rev. Msgr. Werner Freistetter, Visiting Professor

This thesis considers changes in the diplomacy of the Holy See with respect to the Middle East in the period between 1990 and 2003. Policies pursued by these changes were decisions of Pope John Paul II and involved 1) establishing full diplomatic relations between the Holy See and the State of Israel; 2) convening the Special Assembly of the Synod of Bishops for Lebanon, ending in the papal visit to Lebanon in May 1997; and 3) opposing the 1991 and 2003 U.S.-led wars against Iraq. Asking whether ideas or interests explain these policies, the thesis argues that new circumstances occasioned a rethinking of the Holy See’s interests in light of the development of modern Catholic social teaching. In other words, ideas constituted interests. Principled belief in the dignity of the human person and the principle of solidarity shaped the Holy See’s perception of its interests and the substance of the Pope’s diplomacy. In making the argument, the thesis considers the Holy See’s role in international relations; the development of modern


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Catholic social teaching since Pope Leo XIII’s 1891 encyclical, Rerum Novarum; and case studies of John Paul II’s diplomacy with respect to Israel, Lebanon, and the wars with Iraq. KEYWORDS: Arab Christians, Catholic Social Teaching, Dignity of the Human Person, Diplomacy, Gulf War, Holy See, International Relations, Ideas, Iraq, Islam, Israel, Judaism, Just War Theory, Lebanon, Middle East, Pope John Paul II, Roman Catholic Church, Second Vatican Council, Solidarity

COERCION AND GOVERNANCE IN CHINA: ANALYZING CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS IN THE POST-DENG ERA USING MULTIAH ALAGAPPA’S ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

Andrew H. Tam-Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., Vanderbilt University, 2000

Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006 Advisor: H. Lyman Miller, Department of National Security Affairs

Second Reader: Brian Swanland, Department of National Security Affairs This thesis applies Multiah Alagappa’s framework for analyzing civil-military relations in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the post-Deng era, when several key developments have fundamentally altered the relationship between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). These developments include the absence of a powerful paramount leader, the generational shifts in the civilian and military leaderships, the increasing professionalization of the PLA, the decline of communism as a legitimating ideology, the sustained progress of economic development, the emergence of a robust civil society, and the increasing legitimacy of China’s political system. Moreover, this thesis undertakes an extensive review of the various explanations and theories advanced in the literature of civil-military relations, asserting that Alagappa’s analytical framework offers the most comprehensive tool for analyzing civil-military relations to date. Using Alagappa’s analytical framework, this thesis argues that the current trend in civil-military relations in China has brought increasing civilian supremacy, as the political power and influence of the PLA have diminished over time due to the decreasing significance of coercion in governance, the strengthening of non-coercive state institutions, China’s sustained high level of economic development, and the increasing legitimacy of China’s political system. KEYWORDS: People’s Republic of China, PRC, Civil-Military Relations, Post-Deng Era, Multiah Alagappa, Coercion, Governance, Economic Development, Political Legitimacy, Civil Society, International Actors, Chinese Communist Party, CCP, People’s Liberation Army, PLA, PRC State, State Institutions

FREE TRADE AREA OF THE AMERICAS: A THREE LEVEL ANALYSIS Clay G. Williams-Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy

B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1993 Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006

Advisor: Harold Trinkunas, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Robert E. Looney, Department of National Security Affairs

The Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) is a proposed treaty that would encompass the Western Hemisphere—800 million people and a 13 trillion dollar economy. It is a regional agreement that cannot be understood without the interrelated issues at both the international and domestic level. The single most important issue that resides at the nexus of all three of these levels is domestic subsidies on agriculture. FTAA cannot move forward at the regional level without a reduction in U.S. domestic subsidies. The United States is not willing to reduce its domestic protection without reciprocal reductions from the European Union, specifically, France. Even if international agreement is reached, the domestic-level interest group politics must be factored in. Furthermore, the clock is ticking at the domestic level with both the President’s Trade Promotion Authority and the Farm Bill set to expire in 2007. The final analysis indicates that international negotiations will not yield enough genuine concessions soon enough to break the regional level loggerheads and that domestic interest group politics will not allow unreciprocated unilateral reductions to break that stalemate either. Free trade in the Western Hemisphere is, therefore, likely to continue to progress as a series of subregional and bilateral agreements.


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KEYWORDS: Free Trade, FTAA, Economics, Subsidies, Agricultural Subsidies, WTO

BIGGER SHIELD: ALLIANCE, POLITICS, AND MILITARY CHANGE IN JAPAN Lynn H. Winward-Major, United States Air Force M.S., Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 2002

B.S., United States Air Force Academy, 1992 Master of Arts in National Security Affairs-March 2006

Advisors: Christopher P. Twomey, Department of National Security Affairs Edward A. Olsen, Department of National Security Affairs

Military change has been a persistent characteristic of Japan’s re-emergence from World War II. However, most studies focus on Tokyo’s “evolutionary-like” and “incremental” efforts, rooting them in a host of structural impediments to change. Nonetheless, Japan continues to strengthen its reliance on the U.S. “sword” while building a broader more effective “shield.” Through three case studies (U.S alignment in the 1950s/1960s, the 1981 expansion to a 1,000nm defense perimeter, and post-Cold War ballistic missile defense (BMD) cooperation with the United States) this thesis shows that despite pervasive pacifism, deeply riven domestic politics, and apparent inflexibility on military security policy, Japan has nonetheless been capable of initiating significant military change.

While international systemic factors and U.S. pressure have played a role, Japan’s security policies have formed under the political, institutional, legal, and societal norms infused in the post-war environment. This has required political elites to subordinate national security interests to the influence of Japan’s evolving domestic political environment. Ultimately, these barriers have diminished as Japan’s domestic political environment has consolidated, resulting in an ability to quicker react to external events. This thesis suggests that U.S. policy toward Japan, while important, overlooks the core issue of Japan’s domestic politics in shaping its security policy. KEYWORDS: Japan, Japanese Self-Defense Force, Innovation, Military Change, Northeast Asia, Military Security, Interoperability, U.S.-Japan Alliance, 1,000nm Defense Perimeter, Ballistic Missile Defense

MASTER OF ARTS

IN SECURITY STUDIES

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TOWARDS A HOMELAND SECURITY STRATEGY FOR THE UNITED STATES VIRGIN ISLANDS: THE TERRORISM AND NATURAL DISASTERS PLANNING GROUP

Martin J. Alperen-Civilian, Virgin Islands Department of Justice B.A., Connecticut College, 1980

J.D., Suffolk University Law School, 1985 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Robert Bach, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Ted G. Lewis, Department of Computer Science

The Virgin Islands (VI) is under-prepared for major natural disasters and terrorism. Many emergency plans are incomplete, based on inaccurate information, wrongly optimistic, and assume an infrastructure that does not exist. The VI is at risk to a direct terrorist attack and also subject to whatever secondary consequences result from a stateside attack, because virtually one hundred percent of food, fuel, medicine, oil used to make electricity and potable water, and tourists (the economy’s lifeblood), are imported. Also, 1) geographically, help is not readily available from any neighboring city or state; 2) the VI’s first responders are likely to be affected by the same disaster they are responding to and unable to assist; 3) the VI must assume more of the emergency preparedness functions that would typically be shared between neighboring communities; 4) the VI must have more funding than similar communities on the mainland; and 5) preparedness planning must include the importing of mainland resources.

The purpose of this thesis is to illustrate how the VI is different from the mainland U.S. This thesis documents vulnerabilities and shows how the government’s existing infrastructure is inadequate. Included is a discussion of how the police, social issues, and existing VI government leadership affect the vulnerabilities. Existing preparedness plans are examined. The thesis includes a discussion on how management can harm homeland security. A Terrorism and Natural Disasters Planning Group is proposed, and an Action Plan listing things that can be done immediately is provided. KEYWORDS: United States Virgin Islands, Vulnerabilities, Preparedness, Government Corruption, Mismanagement, Crumbling Infrastructure, Social Issues, Police Department, Leadership, Terrorism and Natural Disasters Planning Group, Action Plan

STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING THE CITIZEN CORPS Pamela G. Biladeau-Metropolitan State University and Roseville Fire Department

B.A., Metropolitan State University, 1998 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Robert Bach, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Michael Breci, Metropolitan State University

The Civilian Corps (CC) is the primary Department of Homeland Security vehicle for achieving civilian preparedness. The CC volunteers are included in the National Preparedness System (NPS) through various sponsoring agencies who determine the roles and functions of the volunteers within their organization. However, by not defining the CC as an independent support function within the NPS, it makes it difficult to isolate data elements for the purpose of creating Target Capabilities Lists, measuring performance, and including volunteers in operations plans. This thesis posits that to achieve adequate civilian preparedness, the CC roles and functions need to be restructured to align with the certification systems of the professional emergency response disciplines. The CC certifications will also bridge gaps in the response continuum.

The CC reorganization will modularize and isolate roles and functions for the purpose of strategic planning, measuring performance levels, serving as a pre-deployment civilian response, typing, credentialing, and pre-registering as an independent resource capability, which will be essential in planning

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for a pandemic and surge capacity needs. For planning purposes and to add visual clarity of the CC roles and functions, the CC should be placed as an independent Emergency Response Function within the National Response Plan. KEYWORDS: Citizen Corps, National Preparedness System, Emergency Support Functions, Civilians, Target Capabilities Lists, National Scenarios, National Planning Scenarios, Universal Task Lists, Predeployment, Strategic Planning

STATE AND URBAN AREA HOMELAND SECURITY STRATEGY V3.0: EVOLVING STRATEGIC PLANNING

Darren Chen-Department of Homeland Security, Office of Grants and Training B.A., University of Virginia, 1997

M.S., George Washington University, 2001 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Robert Bach, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Christopher Bellavita, DoD Contractor

This thesis proposes to overhaul the state and urban area homeland security strategy program by improving the strategic planning process, guidance and assistance, and strategy review in collaboration with state and local stakeholders. Federal, state, and local reviewers regard the current state and urban homeland security strategies as generally inadequate and indicative of limited strategic planning processes. Comprehensive, enterprise-wide homeland security strategies are essential in coordinating preparedness efforts and limited resources. A collaborative effort between the federal government and state and local stakeholders would promote a value innovation in strategic planning that will transform state and urban area homeland security strategies. KEYWORDS: Strategy, Strategic Planning, Homeland Security, Preparedness, Collaboration

STRATEGY FOR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES TO IMPROVE COLLECTION, ANALYSIS, AND DISSEMINATION OF TERRORIST INFORMATION

Christopher J. Cleary-Deputy Inspector, Nassau County Police Department B.S., New York Institute of Technology, 2000

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Robert L. Simeral, CAPT (Ret.), USN, Department of National Security Affairs

Second Reader: Christopher Bellavita, DoD Contractor Local law enforcement agencies play a significant role in domestic counter-terrorism and homeland security. The intelligence function of law enforcement agencies enhances their ability to detect criminal activity related to terror groups, as well as the ability to prevent or respond to a terrorist attack.

This research project identifies policies and procedures that could be implemented by local law enforcement agencies to enhance cooperation and collaboration with other public sector agencies, private sector security providers, and the general public. The policies and procedures are based on intelligence-led policing and public-private partnerships, and will generate the ability to increase the flow of information disseminated from, and collected by, law enforcement intelligence entities. The resulting intelligence developed by law enforcement intelligence can be pushed up to the state and national level to improve the nation’s ability to detect potential terrorist activity, protect citizens, and safeguard critical infrastructure. KEYWORDS: Intelligence Sharing, Information Sharing, Local Law Enforcement

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21ST CENTURY POLICING: THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF HOMELAND SECURITY IN LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ORGANIZATIONS

Fred Collie-Deputy Chief of Police, Arlington, Texas B.S., University of Texas at Tyler, 1989

M.P.A., University of Texas at Arlington, 1993 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Glen Woodbury, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Alejandro del Carmen, University of Texas at Arlington

Twenty-first-century law enforcement organizations face a new and significant challenge—homeland security. On September 11, 2001, local law enforcement agencies throughout the United States were thrust into the “War on Terrorism.” The current law enforcement business-as-usual attitude and incremental programmatic responses do not ensure long-term success. Any act of terrorism will initially be a local issue that requires immediate response by various local agencies, such as medical, fire, and police—the communities “first responders.” Thus, local law enforcement organizations must recognize and embrace the critical and essential role they play in homeland security and the War on Terrorism.

In today’s security environment, community policing is one of the most successful strategies employed by law enforcement organizations. Community policing focuses on crime and social disorder through the delivery of police services that include aspects of traditional law enforcement, preventive measures, problem solving, community engagement, and partnerships. At some point in the future, the line between homeland security and everyday policing will become indistinguishable. At that point, homeland security institutionalization at the local level will have been fully achieved.

This thesis attempts to identify the need for homeland security institutionalization in local law enforcement organizations. The thesis argues that community-based policing principles combined with other progressive law enforcement practices, such as intelligence-led policing, are crucial aids in that effort. KEYWORDS: Law Enforcement, Homeland Security, Institutionalization, Community Policing, Intelligence-Led Policing

THE NATIONAL RESPONSE SYSTEM: THE NEED TO LEVERAGE NETWORKS AND KNOWLEDGE

Barry A. Compagnoni-Commander, United States Coast Guard B.S., United States Coast Guard Academy, 1986

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Dan Boger, Department of Information Sciences

Second Reader: Ted G. Lewis, Department of Computer Science Hurricane Katrina highlighted serious deficiencies in America’s national approach to emergency management of incidents of national significance (IoNS). Although Homeland Security Presidential Directive Five identifies a broad unified effort to respond to domestic incidents, barriers to the achievement of this goal exist in our culture, policies, and processes. When viewing our national response from the perspective of network theory and knowledge management, specific gaps are identified in doctrine, organizational composition, and technological capability. An agenda for change to the National Response Plan and National Incident Management System should integrate the strengths of the network design and address the critical role that knowledge plays in shaping response efforts at all levels. A comprehensive strategy to change the culture and approach of our response community includes streamlining organizational roles of the Unified Command and local Emergency Operations Centers, expanding the Unified Command to include the private sector and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) as equal partners, implementing a Knowledge Management Annex to the National Response Plan, and deploying a mesh network communications system as part of the proactive federal response. KEYWORDS: Hurricane Katrina, Emergency Management, Network Theory, National Response Plan, NIMS, Unified Command

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THE FEDERAL ROLE IN THE SECURITY OF RELIGIOUS VENUES IN AMERICA Michael L. Crockett-Commander, United States Navy

B.S.W., University of Mississippi, 1988 M.A., University of Rhode Island, 1995

M.A., Naval War College, 2001 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: David Brannan, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Christopher Bellavita, DoD Contractor

Increasing Islamic, extremist terrorist attacks against primarily Christian worship sites in the Middle East and Southeast Asia pose disturbing questions: Could terrorists attack places of worship or a religious icon in America? What security policies are currently in effect? What would be the impact on the American people?

This paper explores the potential consequences of neglecting the security of religious venues in America and how such neglect could have strategic ramifications if ignored. Could a successful and highly visible terrorist attack on an American worship site have such an effect on the American public that it could drastically alter the War on Terrorism, re-draw battle lines by faith, and launch a modern day Crusades? What role does the federal government currently have in defending America’s religious venues against the threat of an Islamic extremist terrorist attack? Are current security efforts adequate, and if not, what policies or new approach should be taken? The author ultimately proposes a federally-led, layered, security engagement strategy model for religious venues. This model utilizes an incentive-based, federal-resourcing approach to facilitate achieving optimal security while still preserving America’s core social tenet of protecting and ensuring the religious freedoms of its citizenry from religiously-motivated Islamist terrorism. KEYWORDS: Homeland Security, Religion, Separation of Church and State, Constitutional Rights, Private Security, DHS, NCATF, Training, Incentivized, Law Enforcement

THE FLORIDA AIR NATIONAL GUARD: A MODEL FOR RECRUITING Rev. James F. Delaney-Homeland Security, Palm Coast, Florida

B.S., New York Institute, 1977 M.S., Mental Health Counseling, 1984

Ordination, 1984 Master of Arts in Security Studies-March 2006

Advisor: Brian Swanland, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Brig Gen Joseph Balskus, Commander Florida Air National Guard

Effective recruitment strategies are essential to the maintenance of an all-volunteer military. Shortfalls in recruiting, such as those that have been experienced by the Air National Guard, U.S. Army, Army National Guard, and Army Reserve, threaten the viability of national military strategies that call for the U.S. military to be capable of simultaneously fighting two major wars and dealing with catastrophic man-made or natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina.

The Florida Air National Guard has been well ahead of its goals. Through successful recruitment policies, the Florida Air National Guard is, and will continue to be, “Ready, Relevant, and Reliable.” The goal of this research is to identify the best practices used by the Florida Air National Guard to recruit professional personnel, and to examine how these practices could be applied to other Air National Guard organizations and other branches of the service.

An empowered Recruiting and Retention Superintendent, along with an innovative team approach, have been successfully implemented and used by the Florida Air National Guard since June 2000. Many of the recruitment issues that the military faces today can be resolved by adopting the Florida Air National Guard’s very successful model of leadership, communication, empowerment, and a team approach.

The information presented in this thesis draws on a variety of sources to show that the effective utilization of the Florida Air National Guard Recruiting and Retention Superintendent has had a dramatic and successful impact on the Florida Air National Guard’s recruitment efforts.

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Based on secondary research, interviews, statistical analysis, and an evaluation of present and past practices, this thesis provides a path for recruiting that is focused and has a streamlined chain of command, along with the entire state’s recruiters working as a team to meet the needs of the entire state’s recruiting goals. KEYWORDS: Recruiting, Air National Guard, Recruiting and Retention Superintendent, End Strength, Manning, Stop Loss, Florida

ENTERPRISE POLICING FOR THE SEPTEMBER 12 ERA David E. Dial-Chief of Police, Naperville, Illinois, Police Department

M.P.A., University of Colorado, 1980 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Christopher Bellavita, DoD Contractor Second Reader: William Tafoya, University of New Haven

The community policing strategies that were in place in September 2001 were not effective in meeting the threat of terrorism. American police agencies are at the threshold of a new era in policing, which has not yet been fully identified. This thesis explores the limitations of community policing. A new model, identified as Enterprise Policing, is proposed to meet homeland security challenges.

Enterprise Policing is a term developed to identify a policing style that embodies community policing as an organizational philosophy rather than a program. It includes interacting or networking in unprecedented ways with other law enforcement and government agencies, as well as community members, for the purpose of informal communication and mutual support. Under this policing style, neighborhood policing teams will resemble regional networks created for mutual assistance to exchange information and ensure public safety.

Enterprise Policing is flexible and resilient. It is focused on prevention and preparedness as well as response and recovery. Unlike community policing, Enterprise Policing involves the use of technology and training for information sharing and the development of actionable intelligence. It is intended to address national and transnational policing issues as well as local concerns that impact community safety. KEYWORDS: September 11, 2001, Terrorist Threats, State and Local Police, American Police, Homeland Security, Community Policing, Reform, Intelligence-Led Policing, Enterprise Policing

REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA AND THE TRANSNISTRIAN CONFLICT: THE IMPACT OF NATO AND THE EUROPEAN UNION ENLARGEMENTS

ON THE DISPUTE RESOLUTION PROCESS Ivan Ene-Major, Republic of Moldova National Army

B.S., Joint Arms Military Academy-Novosibirsk, Russian Federation, 1995 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Civil-Military Relations)-March 2006

Advisor: Donald Abenheim, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Thomas Bruneau, Department of National Security Affairs

With Romania’s acceptance into NATO, the Republic of Moldova found itself at the frontier of the North-Atlantic Alliance. This thesis evaluates the impact of NATO enlargements and the European Union on the resolution of the Transnistrian conflict in the eastern part of the Republic of Moldova. Recent changes in the geo-political environment in Europe, theoretically, can bring a new impetus to the process of political settlement of the Transnistrian conflict. In the wake of these changes, Moldovan leadership is looking for new supporters who could back Moldova in the stand-off against Russia on the Transnistrian issue. In this respect, NATO and the European Union (EU) seemed to be appropriate candidates. Either one of these two organizations taken separately possesses enough potential to create an asymmetry against Russia. Would these two institutions get more involved in the fate of this intra-state conflict? Possible courses of action of actors involved are analyzed through the prisms of the Realism and Liberal Institutionalism theories of international relations. Rationale for further enlargement is assessed against “soft power” resources, such as

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values, norms, and knowledge, accumulated over the years and shared by member-states within both alliances. KEYWORDS: Moldova, Transnistria, NATO, European Union, Enlargement, South-Eastern Europe

THE INTELLIGENCE PHENOMENON IN A NEW DEMOCRATIC MILIEU. ROMANIA – A CASE STUDY

Valentin F. Filip-Romanian Ministry of National Defense B.A., University of Bucharest, 2000 M.A., University of Bucharest, 2002

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Civil-Military Relations)-March 2006 Advisors: Thomas Bruneau, Department of National Security Affairs

Kenneth Dombroski, Department of National Security Affairs In the post-Cold War era, two major trends illustrate the evolution of the international security environment: the spread of democracies and the emergence of asymmetric threats. The former focuses on freedom, the latter on security. New democracies must pay close attention to fundamental values and norms that stand at their core, such as respect for human rights and civil liberties, rule of law, and civilian and democratic control. At the same time, they need effective and efficient intelligence to fight the new threats. Regulating intelligence activities is one of the greatest challenges of a democratic regime because there is a fundamental clash between the democratic culture, based on individual freedom, openness, transparency, and accountability, and the secrecy- and security-oriented intelligence culture. A fundamental question is raised: How to democratize intelligence and maintain its efficiency and effectiveness at the same time? The conundrum of intelligence reforms requires a trade-off between the need for good intelligence and the respect and promotion of democratic values. This thesis analyzes the impact of democratization on intelligence in four major areas: mandate, structure, control, and professionalization. It studies the major academic debates on the matter and then applies the theoretical framework to the Romanian case. KEYWORDS: National Security, Intelligence, Security Sector Reform, Democratization

STATE TOOLS TO UPDATE AND STRENGTHEN STATUTES FOR AGRICULTURAL EMERGENCIES

Ann Peters Garvey-Civilian, Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management B.S., Loras College, 1998

D.V.M., Iowa State University College of Veterinary Medicine, 2002 M.P.H., University of Iowa, 2003

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Ellen Gordon, DoD Contractor

Co-Advisor: Radford Davis, Iowa State University, College of Veterinary Medicine Second Reader: Dr. Sebastian E. Heath, Senior Staff Veterinarian, United States Department of

Agriculture Many existing state statutes for animal health emergencies fail to comprehensively address authorities needed during animal health emergency response. Therefore, it is vitally important that states review and revise their authorities to develop clear and comprehensive powers to respond. This thesis was developed to assist states with the process of revision by providing a model outline of topic areas that should be addressed in state statutes for animal health emergencies. The model outline of topic areas is intended to provide states with a suggested framework for revising their existing state statutes.

Because there are significant variations in the organizational structure of state animal-health regulatory officials within each state, there is no statutory model that can be applied universally to all fifty states. That is why this thesis attempts to provide the outline of topic areas that each state needs to address individually, rather than presenting universal language. If states intend to respond quickly and efficiently to animal health emergencies, authorities must be clearly delineated and comprehensively written. It is the author’s hope that this thesis will help states update and add to their statutes, ultimately improving their response to

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animal health emergencies. In addition, revision of the statutes will eliminate inefficiencies that may lead to delayed response effort, and will preserve local, state, and federal government resources and funding. KEYWORDS: Agriculture, State Statutes, Model Statute, Agricultural Authorities

POLICING THE HOMELAND: CHOOSING THE INTELLIGENT OPTION Raymond Anthony Guidetti-Civilian, Sergeant First Class, New Jersey State Police

B.A., Seton Hall University, 1998 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: David Brannan, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Gerard LaSalle, Rutgers University

Shortly after September 11, 2001, the nation’s law enforcement community found itself ill prepared to handle the range of responsibilities required in a nation under the threat of terrorism. Police organizations hastily assigned resources to help mitigate areas hit hard by the attack while dispersing investigative capital to prevent future strikes. A stark realization would follow, exposing the demands of coping with counter-terrorism while balancing finite resources aimed at traditional crime fighting. These added challenges underscored the notion that American policing had entered a new era –– homeland security.

This thesis evaluates the options state police organizations have for adopting an appropriate style of policing for homeland security. A case study of the New Jersey State Police (NJSP) response to this challenge further examines how such organizations can transform their structures and processes to bolster their intelligence apparatus. The NJSP objective was to confront the challenges of homeland security while better equipping the organization to respond to its traditional investigative responsibilities. Using the example of the NJSP, the study provides a realistic set of solutions for other state police organizations to implement when setting their own course in the homeland security era. KEYWORDS: Homeland Security Era, Counter Terrorism, Policing, Prevention, Intelligence-Led Policing, State Police, New Jersey State Police, 3i Model

INTERAGENCY COLLABORATION CHALLENGES AMONG HOMELAND SECURITY DISCIPLINES IN URBAN AREAS

Jerome D. Hagen-Captain, Seattle Fire Department B.A., University of Montana, 2002

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Jeff Knopf, Department of National Security Affairs

Second Reader: Glen Woodbury, DoD Contractor First responders have struggled to incorporate strategic direction provided by the federal government into their existing plans. An urgent call for teamwork and cooperation has changed the landscape for America’s first responders. They have been required to shoulder new responsibilities and become more networked and interactive with their peer disciplines to achieve higher levels of performance and response capability. This thesis examines interactions among four key homeland security disciplines in the Seattle, Washington, urban area. It evaluates how fire service, law enforcement, emergency management, and public health organizations have used federal government guidance and programs to prepare for catastrophic terrorism response.

Specifically, it describes how the homeland security roles, organizational cultures, and collaboration challenges currently facing local public safety agencies have impacted the urban area environment. Based on findings from local and national inquiries, this research explains how the National Incident Management System (NIMS) and the National Planning Scenarios (NPS) have impacted interagency collaboration. This study provides a detailed description of the homeland security environment from the inside by identifying challenges facing first responders and the strengths and gaps in their relationships. Finally, it offers positive policy recommendations to Seattle area public safety executives for increasing interagency cooperation in the urban area.

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KEYWORDS: National Incident Management System, Incident Command System, National Planning Scenarios, Interagency Collaboration Challenges, Emergency Response Providers

IN SUPPORT OF CIVIL AUTHORITY: IS THE ROLE OF MILITARY SUPPORT FOR NATIONAL SECURITY IN JEOPARDY?

Robert R. Henderson-Captain, Contra Costa Office of the Sheriff (Retired) B.S., University of California-Berkeley, 1974

M.P.A., Golden Gate University, 1979 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Christopher Bellavita, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Paul Stockton, Department of National Security Affairs

Dependence upon the National Guard for civil support during major domestic incidents is an integral part of homeland security planning. This dependence is well-founded in a review of the Guard’s historic roles in homeland security, but national and world conditions are quite different today from what they were when the Guard first took on this role. These differences may be creating a drain on its capabilities that is untenable on a long-term basis. Continuing use of the National Guard for homeland defense—at least at its present level—may seriously endanger homeland security. From the perspective of civil authorities, continuing dependence upon a questionable resource may prove devastating. This report considers the mutual impact of homeland defense and security roles on the National Guard, and how these conflicting responsibilities may be decreasing its ability to support civil authorities. It provides a view of one very possible future that will present significant problems for emergency planners. KEYWORDS: National Guard, Homeland Security, Critical Incidents, Disaster Management

PUBLIC-PRIVATE DEFENSE PARTNERING IN CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION

Gregory M. Jaksec-Lieutenant Colonel, United States Army B.S., Robert Morris College, 1989 M.A., Webster University, 2002

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Ted G. Lewis, Department of Computer Science

Second Reader: Rudy Darken, MOVES Institute (Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation) The problem confronting the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the Department of Defense (DoD), and America’s private sector is how to collectively protect the nation’s critical infrastructure. The challenge for the DHS is in motivating partnerships across the public, private, and DoD domains, each with different organizational and cultural objectives governed under a federalist system. The relevance of this problem lies in the vulnerability of America’s economic and military foundations to terrorist attacks or a catastrophic natural disaster. Research conducted of the regulated energy and water industries indicates that federal standards can be effectively established across the public-private domains. The establishment of federal tax and insurance incentives, limiting corporate liability, and developing industry standards may motivate increased security and circumvent excessive federal mandates.

The conduct of partnering is scrutinized via personal interviews to determine if the recommendation to build security partnerships with federal guidance is sufficient to secure critical infrastructure. The implementation of a dual-purpose strategy is recommended to further enhance the efficiency of security partnerships. This thesis suggests that the DHS must develop an innovative Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) policy and utilize the National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) as the vehicle to integrate and synchronize the actions of all security partners. KEYWORDS: Critical Infrastructure Protection, Cross Domain Partnership, Defense, Industrial Base, Department of Defense, DoD, Department of Homeland Security, Dual Purpose Strategy, Federal Mandate, Homeland Security Presidential Directive-7, HSPD-7, Incentives, Tax, Insurance, Interdependency, Public-

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Private Partnership, National Infrastructure Protection Plan, NIPP, Regionalization, Security, Partnership, Security, Standards ENHANCING HOMELAND SECURITY EFFORTS BY BUILDING STRONG RELATIONSHIPS

BETWEEN THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT Dennis L. Jensen-Assistant Chief of Police Saint Paul, Minnesota, Police Department

B.A., Concordia University, 2003 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Christopher Bellavita, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Dennis Conroy, St. Paul Minnesota Police Department

Following the events of September 11, 2001, law enforcement agencies were struggling to gather the investigative information necessary from the Muslim community to assist in efforts to prevent future attacks. Building a strong relationship between the local police and the Muslim community is essential in defending America against acts of terrorism. Key to this relationship is trust between the groups and bridging the gap of cultural differences.

This study seeks to determine what factors associated with building relationships with established communities can be applied to the immigrant Muslim community to further public safety and homeland security needs. Specifically, the study examines the best practices used in an outreach effort in the African-American community in the city of Saint Paul and looks at how the application of those practices could produce results in the Muslim community.

The research demonstrates that community policing is the cornerstone of community outreach, that individual relationships built by law enforcement representatives form the platform for outreach, and that the complexity of culture in immigrant communities requires law enforcement to go beyond the traditional community policing efforts to attain cultural competency.

Finally, the study finds that the true best practice to prevent terrorism is to build trust with the community being served. KEYWORDS: Terrorism, Community Policing, Muslim Community Relationship Building, Prevention

QUO VADIS NATO? COLLECTIVE DEFENSE, COLLECTIVE SECURITY, AND THE EURO-ATLANTIC REALM IN THE SECOND DECADE OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Vahap Kavaker-First Lieutenant, Turkish Army B.S., Turkish Army Academy, 2000

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Defense Decision-Making and Planning)-March 2006 Advisor: Donald Abenheim, Department of National Security Affairs

Second Reader: Rafael Biermann, Visiting Professor After September 11, the emergence of global terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and dramatic changes in the security environment led once again to debate about the future of NATO. The U.S.-led Iraq War deepened the debate and created one of the gravest crises in the history of the Alliance. Although the Alliance experienced a difficult period, it managed to carry out its ongoing transformation efforts to meet the new challenges. At the Istanbul Summit of 2004, the first NATO meeting since the onset of the Iraq crisis, leaders of the Alliance acknowledged their commitment to meeting these new challenges. This thesis argues that the Iraq crisis was mainly a product of leadership failures and that a strategic divorce for the Alliance in the near future seems very unlikely. Within this context, the thesis also analyzes the nature of the Iraq crisis and the ties that bind NATO members on both sides of the Atlantic. Given the steps taken by NATO in its transformation, the changing security environment, and the United States’ and Europe’s unique strategic cultures, the thesis concludes that, while maintaining its original collective defense commitment, NATO will now also perform a collective security function throughout a broader region, especially in the Middle East and Northern Africa.

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KEYWORDS: NATO, Transatlantic Alliance, Transatlantic Relations, Cold War, 9/11, Iraq Crisis, EU Security Strategy, U.S. National Security Strategy, Security Environment, Terrorism, Transformation, Collective Defense, Collective Security

PUBLIC HEALTH SPECIALIZATIONS AND EDUCATION NEEDS TO SUPPORT HOMELAND SECURITY

David C. Landguth-Civilian, Center for Homeland Security and Counterproliferation, University of Tennessee

M.P.H., University of Tennessee, 1990 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Anke Richter, Defense Resources Management Institute Second Reader: Fabian Mihelic, University of Tennessee Graduate School of Medicine

Understanding and identifying critical public health human capital needs and their appropriate knowledge base for homeland security is necessary to help the nation prepare for and respond to acts of terrorism and natural disasters. Understanding what deficiencies exist by specializations and identifying an appropriate knowledge base for these individuals is necessary to meet the future force requirements to support homeland security.

Personal interviews are conducted with 24 individuals throughout Tennessee and various components of the federal government. This is done to discern what these professionals believe are the specialties needed to respond to homeland security mandates, and the education these specialists need to discharge their duties. For this study, public health is defined as any individuals responsible for safeguarding and enhancing the health of the community in relation to homeland security. This is consistent with Dennis Raphael’s definition, which defined public health as “the science and art of preventing disease, prolonging life, and promoting the health of the population through organized efforts of society.” The results of this study may help aid policymakers to attract, train, retrain, and retain the appropriate cadre of professionals necessary to support the public health mission relating to homeland security. KEYWORDS: Public Health, Education, Terrorism, Prevention, Healthcare, Homeland Security

USING SURVEILLANCE CAMERA SYSTEMS TO MONITOR PUBLIC DOMAINS: CAN ABUSE BE PREVENTED?

Thomas J. Nestel, III-Staff Inspector, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Police Department B.S., Chestnut Hill College, 2001

M.S., St. Joseph’s University, 2004 Master of Arts in Security Studies-March 2006

Advisor: David Brannan, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Jerry Ratcliffe, Temple University

This thesis examines the management of closed circuit television (CCTV) systems used by municipal police departments and analyzes the policies created to control the technology and prevent abuse. Using U.S. Census Bureau data, the police departments responsible for protecting the 50 largest cities are contacted and surveyed. The initial step determines what jurisdictions utilize surveillance cameras to monitor public domains. The follow-up steps gather and analyze information about the systems being used, management decisions regarding where to place the cameras, training for operators, supervision standards, and written policies regulating the department’s program. Finally, step-by-step recommendations for implementing CCTV surveillance systems for homeland security use are presented. KEYWORDS: CCTV, Monitoring Public Domains, Surveillance Cameras

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RINGING THE BELL; SOUNDING THE ALARM: A PROPOSAL FOR THE SIMULTANEOUS ADVANCEMENT OF SECURITY AND PRIVACY Kneilan K. Novak-Captain, United States Air Force

B.S., Campbell University, 1991 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Robert Bach, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Robert L. Simeral),, CAPT (Ret.), USN, Department of National Security Affairs

The need for domestic intelligence and information sharing to detect indications and warnings of terrorist acts and prevent such acts has raised privacy and civil liberties concerns. The relationship between national security, privacy, and civil liberties is often modeled as a scale with security on one end and privacy and civil liberties on the other. Success is said to be achieved when security and privacy are balanced. This model forces these values to be traded in a zero-sum game.

A new model that decreases the “cost” to privacy and increases the “value” to security is needed. Technological, policy, and organizational innovation hold promise in designing new intelligence and information-sharing architectures capable of detecting indications and warnings of terrorism and protecting the privacy and civil liberties of Americans.

Using government documents that articulate attributes for a terrorism early warning system and widely accepted privacy principles as design requirements, the thesis examines technologies that could meet the challenges of both security and privacy. Designing and building a system that supports both security and privacy will benefit both. This thesis argues that this system will enable the nation to fight terrorism while upholding the liberties that form the core values of the American people. KEYWORDS: Intelligence, Information Sharing, Terrorism, Counterterrorism, Homeland Security, Homeland Defense, Privacy, Civil Liberties

ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS FOR PREPAREDNESS PLANNING John E. O’Brien-United States Department of Energy

B.S., New Mexico State University, 1981 M.S., Johns Hopkins University, 1984

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Robert L. Simeral),, CAPT (Ret.), USN, Department of National Security Affairs

Second Reader: Ted G. Lewis, Department of Computer Science The unique nature of the modern threat environment removes all justifiable options for the providers and users of threat information to operate at arm’s length from one another. If the two communities are not integrated to the point that collaboration can proceed unhindered, the flow of information between them will likely be sluggish, unidirectional, and largely irrelevant. Collaboration involves more than just the flow of new information, however. It requires exchanging ideas and challenging assumptions and biases, and leads to the formation of a networked environment that is needed to defeat networked adversaries. An organization that fails to accomplish this level of integration and collaboration runs the risk of finding itself preparing for yesterday’s attack, and failing to prevent, prepare for, or adequately respond to tomorrow’s threat. The 9/11 Commission’s synthesized protocol for scenario development and intelligence tasking is presented as a means of fixing this problem. KEYWORDS: Intelligence, Vulnerability Assessment, Critical Infrastructure Protection, Collaboration, Nuclear Security, September 11, 9/11, Terrorism, Terrorists, Homeland Security, Counterterrorism

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MODELING THE U.S. BORDER PATROL TUCSON SECTOR FOR THE DEPLOYMENT AND OPERATIONS OF BORDER SECURITY FORCES

Karina Janine Ordóñez-Assistant Director for Strategic Policy, Arizona Office of Homeland Security, Phoenix, Arizona

B.A., Arizona State University, 2002 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisors: Robert Bach, DoD Contractor Moshe Kress, Department of Operations Research

This thesis has three objectives. First, it describes and identifies the fundamental dimensions of U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) operations in the busiest and most vulnerable section of the border. Second, it integrates prominent border security factors into a mathematical predictive model, the Arizona-Sonora Border (ASB) Model, which provides an illustration of possible border security operational strategies and the outcome apprehension probability of migrants given the implementation of various operational strategies. Last, this thesis seeks to provide a comprehensive picture of the complex dynamics along the USBP Tucson Sector. This picture highlights the primary challenges facing policymakers in developing innovative policies that will minimize illegal cross-border activity and secure the homeland. KEYWORDS: U.S. Border Patrol, Arizona, U.S.-Mexico Border, Border, Border Security, Border Model, Model, Tucson Sector, Arizona Border Control Initiative, Operation Gatekeeper, Operation Stonegarden, Operation Hold the Line

A MODEL STRATEGY AND POLICY FOR SCREENING FIREFIGHTER CANDIDATES Christopher M. Pope-Chief, Concord, New Hampshire, Fire Department B.S., University System of New Hampshire-Granite State College, 2004

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Lauren F. Wollman, DoD Contractor

Second Reader: Howard W. Timm, Department of Defense, Personnel Security Research Center Critical to the homeland security mission success of the fire service in the United States is a sound workforce mentally and physically prepared to manage the new challenges they will confront and motivated by the desire to serve their community and country. Reasons for and evidence of the need for a new firefighter candidate screening strategy to support this new mission are addressed in this thesis. Scientific evidence on the validity of certain screening elements is evaluated, smart practices are identified and reviewed, and a new model firefighter candidate screening policy supported and driven by a formal strategic plan is proposed. KEYWORDS: Firefighter Screening, Firefighter Background Checks, Fire Service Personnel, Personnel Screening, Pre-Employment Screening, Pre-Employment Background Checks, Hiring Firefighters, Firefighter Employment Process

HUMAN RIGHTS AND INTERNAL SECURITY IN MALAYSIA: RHETORIC AND REALITY Noor Hishmuddian Rahim-Major, Malaysian Army

L.L.B., Mara University of Technology, 1999 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Civil-Military Relations)-March 2006

Advisors: Aurel S. Croissant, Department of National Security Affairs Michael Malley, Department of National Security Affairs

Since 1957, Malaysia has faced external and internal security threats. Over time, Malaysia has succeeded in solving the external threats, but the internal threats remain. The internal threats have come in many forms, including ethnic conflict, religious extremism and deviationism, and terrorism. Since the safety of the public lies in the hands of the government, measures have been taken to ensure the nation’s stability and security, including restriction on civil and political liberties. This thesis examines human rights in Malaysia with a special focus on civil and political rights, particularly during the government of Prime Minister

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Mahathir. This thesis also examines the different rationalities used by the government in order to legitimize the restriction of human rights. The rationales that have been used by the government were the anti-communist, racial harmony, the “Asian values” and developmentalism, and terrorism. This thesis analyzes the reasons behind changes in the rationales and the consequences for internal security. In addition, this thesis addresses the question of the potential impact on internal security if human rights were to be improved. A summary of findings is provided, including an outlook on the development of human rights in Malaysia. KEYWORDS: Human Rights, Internal Security, Malaysia, Rhetoric, Reality, Asian Values, Racial Harmony, Terrorism, Pluralism, Consociationalism, Semi-Democracy, New Economy Policy, New Development Policy and National Vision Policy

ON STRATEGY: THE WAR ON TERRORISM IN CONTEXT Donald J. Reed-DoD Civilian B.A., Indiana University, 1979

M.A., Webster University, 1986 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Christopher Bellavita, DoD Contractor Second Reader: David Brannan, DoD Contractor

This is a critical analysis of United States strategy in the War on Terrorism using established principles of war, as applied to past wars in the industrial age, particularly the Vietnam War, and adapted to emerging concepts of warfare in the information age, to address the questions: Is the United States repeating the strategic mistakes in the War on Terrorism that caused it to lose the Vietnam War? What factors are shaping the nature of the environment and the nature of the engagement? What strategic factors will drive the United States to transform its efforts in the War on Terrorism to the information age? How can United States success in the War on Terrorism be measured? What must the United States do to look beyond the War on Terrorism and prepare for the new strategic paradigm that confronts it?

The results of this analysis are of primary importance to the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security if they are to avoid great expenditure of materiel and loss of life in a losing effort, as occurred in Vietnam, and which available evidence suggests is a possible outcome of the War on Terror. Such a result would have extreme, strategic, and long-range negative implications for the United States by weakening its global posture and inviting future challenges from its adversaries. This analysis is also of considerable importance to the American public. As the events of 9/11 demonstrated, the United States can be attacked on its home territory by its adversaries in the War on Terrorism. A successful national strategy, as well as transformation of that strategy to emerging forms of warfare in the information age, is necessary if future attempts to attack the United States or its interests, at home or abroad, are to be defeated or prevented.

This thesis is a qualitative approach using a four part methodology. First, a review is conducted of the problematic strategic issues that define current United States efforts in prosecuting the War on Terrorism. Second, a comparative case study of American experience in both the Vietnam War and the War on Terrorism is made, to place them in context and determine if the United States is repeating past strategic mistakes. Third, environmental factors are discussed, including both the historical evolution of modern war as well as emerging concepts of war, which will drive transformation of the United States effort in the War on Terrorism from its current adversary-focused industrial age approach to a capabilities-focused information age approach. Fourth, a conceptual approach for conducting the War on Terrorism in the information age is recommended. The research is accomplished by reviewing both existing and emerging bodies of literature and evidence. From this analysis, it should be possible to develop a proposal for transforming the United States effort to achieve victory in the War on Terrorism while simultaneously preparing for the emergence of more advanced forms of future warfare that will follow it. KEYWORDS: War, Strategy, Terror, War on Terrorism

SECURITY STUDIES

88

PROTECTING OUR WATERS WITHIN: A VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MARITIME INFRASTRUCTURE WITHIN COAST GUARD SECTOR OHIO VALLEY

Hassan O. Rosell-Lieutenant, United States Coast Guard B.A., University of the District of Columbia, 1991 J.D., University of the District of Columbia, 1998

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisors: Ted G. Lewis, Department of Computer Science

Rudy Darken, MOVES Institute (Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation) A major focus of this thesis is to examine how the Model-Based Vulnerability Analysis (MBVA) can help reveal network vulnerabilities and resource allocation costs to harden and repair damage to critical infrastructure within Coast Guard Sector Ohio Valley. MBVA is a relevant form of risk-based decision making (RBDM) for Coast Guard Sector Ohio Valley. From a network standpoint, Coast Guard Sector Ohio Valley is a component of the Western Rivers Sector, which is part of the Maritime Transportation Sector, and a subset of the Transportation Sector. Together, the various levels of the Transportation Sector form a network with interdependent vulnerabilities and resource allocation issues.

A comparison summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Port Security Risk Assessment Tool (PSRAT) and MBVA RBDM processes reveal that there is no “one stop shop” RBDM system. While evaluating the strengths and weakness of these RBDM systems, their capabilities are analyzed based on their ability to provide allocation strategy, estimate vulnerability and risk, identify critical assets, differentiate types of risk, identify vulnerabilities of a port, and identify vulnerabilities of a system of ports and their performance measurement methods. The comparison reveals that the MBVA process offers the only systematic resource allocation strategy. However, each system contains robust vulnerability and risk processes. KEYWORDS: Vulnerability Assessments, Critical Infrastructures and Key Assets, Risk-Based Decision Making, Maritime Domain Awareness, Inland Rivers, Western Rivers, Sector, Network Analysis Maritime Transportation Sector

ASSESSMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH INFRASTRUCTURE TO DETERMINE PUBLIC HEALTH PREPAREDNESS

Denise L. Santiago-Health Officer, County of Union, New Jersey B.S., Jersey City University, 1989 M.S., Jersey City University, 1991

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Anke Richter, Defense Resources Management Institute

Second Reader: Paul Stockton, Department of National Security Affairs Since September 2001, health threats associated with acts of terrorism have become an area of increasing concern. The Strategy for Homeland Security stresses the need for a robust public health component to quickly respond to and recover from attacks and other emergencies. The assumption that public health is an optimal system that simply needs to be aimed in new directions is fundamentally flawed. Public health baseline requirements for responding to threats are not as well understood as they might be. The purpose of this research is to help establish a common and accurate measure for assessing the public health infrastructure. Using the case study of Union County, New Jersey, this thesis surveys the activities public health agencies are expected to perform, compares performance to target objectives, and employs a manpower matrix as a model for determining staffing requirements for local public health. This study argues that that the goal of sustainable funding for public health begins with an accurate measure of the capacities of the system in relation to the demands placed upon it. Without such a measure, public health will continue to fail in its primary functions and lack the capacity to meet homeland security goals. KEYWORDS: Public Health Infrastructure, Public Health, Public Health Workforce, Public Health Preparedness, Bioterrorism, Manpower Matrix, Public Health Manpower, Homeland Security

SECURITY STUDIES

89

UTILIZING BIOLOGICAL MODELS TO DETERMINE THE RECRUITMENT OF THE IRISH REPUBLICAN ARMY (IRA) BY MODELING THE VOTING BEHAVIOR OF SINN FÉIN

Erika A. Schaub-First Lieutenant, Setauket Fire Department, Setauket, New York B.S., Loyola College, 1996

M.E.Sc., Yale University, 2000 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Chris Darken, Department of Computer Science Second Reader: Paul Stockton, Department of National Security Affairs

Sociological models have been extensively used to predict the behavior of terrorist groups and to understand their use of terrorism. Much remains to be understood, however, concerning the factors that govern the growth or decline of these groups. Sociological models are inadequate for understanding terrorist behavior because these models typically do not account for the behavior of individuals who ignore social mores. This thesis explores the use of biological population models as a means to incorporate predator-prey behavior factors into terrorist models. This thesis also demonstrates that this method is more appropriate for examining the growth and decline of terrorist organizations through the interaction of law enforcement and terrorist recruitment efforts. After analyzing the respective strengths and weaknesses of sociological and biological models, the thesis applies a biological model, the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model, to a highly suggestive case study, that of the Irish Republican Army. This case study illuminates how a biological model can be utilized to understand the actions of a terrorist organization, and offer predictive value that sociological models lack. KEYWORDS: Terrorist Organization, Behavior, Sociological, Biological, Model, Irish Republican Army, Sinn Féin, Lotka-Volterra Predator Prey Model, Recruitment, British Army

“DIRTY BOMB” ATTACK: ASSESSING NEW YORK CITY’S LEVEL OF PREPAREDNESS FROM A FIRST RESPONDER’S PERSPECTIVE

John Sudnik-Deputy Chief, Fire Department, City of New York B.B.A., Baruch College-City University of New York, 1985

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Christopher Bellavita, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Ellen Gordon, DoD Contractor

Past history and recent intelligence have shown that New York City (NYC), a critical node of the U.S. economy, is clearly in the terrorist’s crosshairs. In order to reduce the probability, lessen the risk, and minimize the consequences of a Radiological Dispersion Device (RDD), or “dirty bomb,” attack, NYC’s first responders must be adequately prepared for its seemingly inevitable occurrence. This particular type of attack on NYC has the potential to create immense panic and confusion on behalf of the general public. Adding to the complexity of the problem is the notion that, since 9/11, the expected actions taken by employees in NYC high-rise office buildings in response to shelter-in-place instructions can be extremely difficult to predict. Therefore, a proposed public awareness campaign and a shelter-in-place plan are two cost-effective and easily implemented terrorism preparedness programs that would build the confidence and increase the capability of the citizenry. Since an RDD incident would likely result in a major inter-agency emergency operation, the unification of command, control, and coordination among NYC’s first responder community is an essential element to its overall success. Hence, an informed and collaborative response by both public and private sector entities could potentially reduce casualties and save lives. KEYWORDS: FDNY, Dirty Bomb, RDD, Shelter-in-Place, Preparedness, Unified Command

SECURITY STUDIES

90

DEPLOYMENT OF STATE TRAFFIC LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS FOR HOMELAND SECURITY

Mark D. Thomas-Captain, Washington State Patrol B.S., Central Washington University, 1994

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: David Brannan, DoD Contractor

Second Reader: A. Donald Sorenson, Washington State Patrol The terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, marked a turning point for agencies at all levels of government to consider their role in homeland security. Significant federal studies provided federal agencies with direction on needed changes; for state law enforcement there remains much to study. Deployment of traffic law enforcement officers in many agencies has not changed since 9/11, and remains a substantial resource that could be used for prevention of terrorist attacks.

Changing deployment priorities of traffic law enforcement officers is complicated by the impact it could have on traffic safety and the over 40,000 people that are killed on America’s highways every year. It becomes more complex with issues such as civil liberties concerns, political acceptability, citizen expectations, and regulatory compliance.

This thesis evaluates options for the deployment of traffic law enforcement officers to enhance homeland security efforts. It examines the value of traffic officers to overall deterrence plans and calls for the increased use of targeted and concentrated traffic patrols rather than random patrols. It recommends a strategy of intelligence-based deployments as part of a layered security system that can maximize the total impact to the traffic safety and homeland security missions of state law enforcement agencies. KEYWORDS: Terrorism, Traffic Enforcement, Law Enforcement, Prevention, Deterrence, Biased Policing

RADIO INTEROPERABILITY: ADDRESSING THE REAL REASONS WE DON’T COMMUNICATE WELL DURING EMERGENCIES

Ronald P. Timmons-Director, City of Plano, Texas, Public Safety Communications B.S., State University of New York, 1984

M.P.A., State University of New York, 1987 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006

Advisor: Susan G. Hutchins, Department of Information Sciences Second Reader: LCDR Laura Barton, USN, Department of Operations Research

Concerns about inadequate radio communications at the scene of disasters predate 9/11, and have been a focal point of homeland security funding since 2001. Under the umbrella term “interoperability,” grant funding is facilitating the recent deployment of equipment to allow field personnel to patch radio systems together, with the expectation of immediate improvement of emergency scene communications dysfunction.

This thesis argues that there are numerous causal factors for inadequate disaster communications. Communications impediments include insufficient radio infrastructure, behavioral reactions by people in stressful situations, intergovernmental relations, inadequate procedures and training, and general lethargy over the need to institute special operating policies differing from routine practices.

The sole reliance upon technological solutions, without proportionate training and practice greatly reduces the effectiveness of radio patching equipment. Quite opposite from the intended effect, patching equipment, in the hands of those only minimally acclimated to radio system architecture, is likely to trigger unintended consequences of chaotic system overload (by combining two or more busy channels) and sector vulnerability (by combining unsecured general public systems with previously isolated public safety systems).

The goal of this research is to provide a thought-provoking examination of the entire realm of emergency scene communications issues. Practical recommendations beyond superficial technological solutions are provided.

SECURITY STUDIES

91

KEYWORDS: Interoperability, Radio Systems, Emergency Communications, First Responder Communications, Intergovernmental Relations, Procedures and Training

BUILDING A BETTER MOUSE TRAP: INCREASING LAW ENFORCEMENT COUNTERTERRORISM CAPABILITIES THROUGH CONSOLIDATION

Christopher O. Vicino-Commander, Pasadena Police Department B.A., Claremont Men’s College, 1984

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Christopher Bellavita, DoD Contractor

Second Reader: William V. Pelfrey, DoD Contractor The current American police model is outdated and does not provide local law enforcement the proper framework to effectively prevent, mitigate, and respond to terrorism. With nearly 18,000 separate police departments in the United States, the current system of policing is individualized, fragmented, and disconnected. With the proliferation of so many police organizations, contiguous agencies have overlapping jurisdictional responsibilities and job functions, leading to the waste of precious personnel resources. Exacerbating this issue, radio systems and computerized databases among these law enforcement agencies are dissimilar or not linked, prohibiting local cops from easily communicating. Such technological gaps are the outcomes of a decentralized policing structure that hinder effective counter terrorism capabilities. In the aftermath of September 11, 2001, local police must be configured in a manner to maximize the country’s counterterrorism efforts. KEYWORDS: Consolidated Police Department, Police Service Merger, Police Structure, American Police Model, Resource Sharing, Regionalism

IMPLEMENTING MARITIME DOMAIN AWARENESS Robert B. Watts-Commander, United States Coast Guard

B.S., United States Coast Guard Academy, 1985 Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Jeffrey Kline, CAPT, USN (Ret.), Department of Operations Research

Second Reader: Charles Martoglio, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations As an attempt to gain understanding of everything in the global maritime environment that can impact the security of the United States, the Maritime Domain Awareness initiative is one of the most ambitious projects ever undertaken by the U.S. government. Information that falls under the prevue of MDA is tremendously diverse and complex, having application in the regulatory, law enforcement, and military arenas. As such, MDA is a multi-agency effort that encompasses 16 respective departments, agencies, and organizations working toward one common goal of shared information. Given that each of these organizations operates under policies and procedures that are radically different, effective MDA requires the design of a construct that fuses multi-agency information in such a way that it can be effectively shared among all agencies. This thesis argues that current infrastructure in the Coast Guard and Navy can be used to obtain MDA through a formal linking process that fuses multi-agency information on the tactical, regional, and strategic levels for sharing and dissemination to appropriate forces for action. KEYWORDS: Maritime Domain Awareness, Homeland Security, Homeland Defense, JHOC, MIFC, NMIC

SECURITY STUDIES

92

TERRORISM AWARENESS AND EDUCATION AS A PREVENTION STRATEGY FOR FIRST RESPONDERS

Alicia L. Welch-Fire Captain, Los Angeles Fire Department B.A., California State University-Long Beach, 1990

Master of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)-March 2006 Advisor: Lauren F. Wollman, DoD Contractor

Second Reader: Roxanne V. Bercik, Los Angeles Fire Department Fire service personnel are ideally suited to contribute to the concerted national effort of homeland security. If they intend to be an effective component of this effort, then a revamping of existing preparedness activities must occur. This thesis analyzes the effectiveness of the Los Angeles Fire Department’s (LAFD) counter-terrorism efforts to date. The central argument is that much more needs to be accomplished in the area of prevention strategies. The way ahead will require an analysis of the impediments to change, which continue to obstruct the department’s progress toward preventative measures. Barriers discussed herein are leadership, firefighting culture, lack of training and educational opportunities, and ineffective use of community involvement. The citizens of the United States have benefited from awareness and prevention programs in the past. Three models are considered to determine which attributes could be extracted and used to construct the foundation for a terrorism prevention model. Frameworks used in some nationally recognized agendas are studied in order to draw information for the development of a terrorism awareness program for first responders. Relative to each of these issues, a recommended course of action specific to the LAFD is outlined in considerable detail. KEYWORDS: Fire Service, LAFD, Terrorism Prevention, Awareness Training

STUDENT INDEX

93

A Abelyan, Armen V., 67 Acevedo, Rafael A., 33 Allen, Charles R., 53 Alperen, Martin J., 75 Amezaga, Guillermo R., Jr., 53 Ang, Chee Chien, 57 Attanassoff, Velko A., 19, 67 Azenon, Enrique A., 37 B Baczkowski, Robert E. , Jr., 37 Biladeau, Pamela G., 75 Black, Brian C., 43 Bowlin, Oscar E., 11 Brand, Steven R., 13 Bristol, Raymond Michael, 38 Brooks, Paul T., 31 Brown, Willie D., 13 Bulbuller, Gokhan, 21 C Casebeer, William D., 68 Chen, Darren, 76 Cheng, Kuo-Feng, 59 Chia, Daniel Kim Boon, 21 Cleary, Christopher J., 76 Clement, Richard W., 33 Collie, Fred, 77 Compagnoni, Barry A., 77 Cone, Benjamin D., 34 Cooper, Michael James, 54 Corporon, Laura L., 5 Crockett, Michael L., 78 Cunningham, Jeffrey G., 45 D Darnell, Karen M., 45 Deichert, Martin K., 38 Delaney, James F., 78 Dial, David E., 79 Dickson, Thomas, 17 Dikmen, Iskender, 14, 34 Duong, Binh T., 14 E Egan, Melissa, 14 Ene, Ivan, 79 Ernst, Ryan B., 15 Estlund, Mark J., 15 Evans, Amanda B., 3 F Feiring, Douglas I., 39 Fenlason, Joel W., 46 Fifield, JoAnn M., 3

Filip, Valentin F., 80 G Garvey, Ann Peters, 80 Gayle, Wayne H., 3 Glova, Michael A., 43 Graham, Sharon L., 4 Gruell, Michael S., 11 Guidetti, Raymond Anthony, 81 H Hagen, Jerome D., 81 Henderson, Robert R., 82 Hernandez, Jerome H., 46 Hill, Marichal L., 39 Hlosek, Andrea L., 68 Hodge, Jacqueline, 17 Homb, Henning Hansen, 40 Hudson, Daniel P., 40 J Jaksec, Gregory M., 82 Jensen, Dennis L., 83 K Kavaker, Vahap, 83 Khakimbaev, Jasur S., 55 Kim, Ki Hwan, 40 Kinkaid, Timothy J., 44 Klempp, Tonya M., 69 Klesch, Gregory A., 57 Koh, Swee Jin, 22 Kriewaldt, Hannah A., 27 Kuhlman, Christopher J., 47 Kuklewski, Andrzej, 4 Kurcan, Remzi Serdar, 22, 63 L LaJoie, Mark R., 47 Landguth, David C., 84 Landreth, Clifford J., 5 Layne, Sylvia M., 35 Leach, Ryan N., 48 Lewis, Michael M., 48 Lingenfelder, Christian J., 69 Loke, Yong, 23 M Madson, Peter N., 70 McNamara, Terry P., 59 Meacham, Desmond J., 61 Milinkovich, Steven M., 6 N Navarro, Maria V., 41 Nestel, Thomas J., III, 84

STUDENT INDEX

94

Novak, Kneilan K., 85 O O’Brien, John E., 85 O’Connor, Edward A., 70 Oberdick, Jan, 17 Oberdorf, Michael C., 23 Ordóñez, Karina Janine, 86 P Perry, Tracy A., 41 Pitts, Bobby R., 39 Pope, Christopher M., 86 Pore, Ghee Lye, 24 Q Quesenbury, Robert C. , Jr., 44 R Rahim, Noor Hishmuddian, 86 Rauch, Travis M., 55 Ray, Gregory P., 54 Reed, Donald J., 87 Renner, Laura, 71 Rhinefield, Jeffrey D., 71 Roman, Ricardo, 60 Rosales, James R., 19 Rosell, Hassan O., 88 Rowe, Andre N., 33 Rust, Sunchlar M., 20 Ryerson, William R., 49 S Santiago, Denise L., 88 Sarar, Stephen F., 24 Schaub, Erika A., 89 Schiefelbein, Jon M., 49 Sherman, Zoe B., 72 Sierpien, Jeffery A., 42 Smith, Daniel B., 42 Stake, Ronald Patrick, 72 Stepanek, Adam J., 50 Stewart, Donald F., 35 Stratton, Matthew B., 50 Sudnik, John, 89 T Tam, Andrew H., 73 Thomas, Mark D., 90 Timmons, Ronald P., 90 Turner, Eric G., 35 U Urrea, Jorge M., 16

V Vicino, Christopher O., 91 Vogel, Vance T., 6 Vorhees, Damon C., 51 W Watts, Robert B., 91 Weaver, James C., 51 Welch, Alicia L., 92 Wild, Thomas H., 7 Wilhelm, Richard H. , II, 5 Willard, Lee B., 57 Williams, Clay G., 73 Wilson, Rhoda M., 29 Winward, Lynn H., 74 Z Zachariadis, Christoforos P., 36, 64

ADVISOR INDEX

95

A Abenheim, Donald, 79, 83 Armstead, Robert L., 11 Arquilla, John, 31 Ashton, Robert, 23, 24 B Bach, Robert, 75, 76, 85, 86 Baer, Wolfgang, 55 Balskus, Joseph, Brig Gen, 78 Barton, Laura, LCDR, USN, 29, 90 Baylouny, Anne Marie, 19, 67, 72 Bellavita, Christopher, 76, 78, 79, 82,

83, 87, 89, 91 Bercik, Roxanne V., 92 Biermann, Rafael, 83 Blais, Curtis L., 33, 55 Boger, Dan, 35, 77 Bordetsky, Alexander, 14, 33, 34, 35, 36, 64 Bourakov, Eugene, 35 Bowman, William, 41 Brannan, David, 78, 81, 84, 87, 90 Breci, Michael, 75 Broadston, Robert, 33 Bruneau, Thomas, 79, 80 Brutzman, Don, 55 Buttrey, Samuel E., 39, 41, 57 C Candreva, Philip, 3 Cho, Kwan Ho, 40 Chu, Peter C., 53, 54, 59 Clunan, Anne L., 67, 68, 70 Colson, William B., 11 Conroy, Dennis, 83 Coughlan, Peter J., 7, 40 Crawford, Alice, 4, 17 Croissant, Aurel S., 69, 86 D Darken, Chris, 89 Darken, Rudy, 15, 82, 88 Davidson, Kenneth L., 46 Davis, Radford, 80 del Carmen, Alejandro, 77 Dew, Nicolas, 42 Dinolt, George, 16 Dombroski, Kenneth, 80 Doorey, Timothy J., 71 Durkee, Phillip A., 48, 54 E Eagle, Chris, 16 Eaton, Donald R., RADM, USN (Ret.), 5, 39 Eitelberg, Mark J., 6, 37 Elsberry, Russell L., 46, 49, 50

F Fargues, Monique P., 21, 22, 63 Fleischer, Peter, 53, 54 Freistetter, Werner, 72 Fulp, J.D., 14 G Gates, William R., 4, 40 Gibson, John, 13 Gordon, Ellen, 80, 89 Goroch, Andreas K., 46 Gottshall, Eric L., 53 Greenshields, Brian, 19 Gue, Kevin R., 39 Guttieri, Karen, 72 H Ha, Tri. T., 21 Harr, Patrick A., 45, 46, 50 Hatch, William D., 3, 37, 39, 40 Hayes-Roth, Rick, 33 Hensel, Nayantara D., 38 Hobson, Garth V., 43, 44 Hutchins, Susan G., 90 I Irvine, Cynthia, 14, 15, 34 Irvine, Nelson, 34 J Jansen, Erik, 20 Jenn, David C., 22, 23, 63 Johnson, Thomas H., 68, 71, 72 Jones, Kevin, 44 Jonsson, Haflidi H., 51 Julian, Alexander, 23 K Kaminer, Isaac, 44 Kang, Keebom, 5 Kapolka, Daphne, 11 King, Starr S., 15 Kline, Jeffrey, CAPT, USN (Ret.), 91 Knopf, Jeff, 81 Kocher, Kathryn M., 3, 6, 37, 38, 41, 42 Kragh, Frank E., 27 Kress, Moshe, 86 L LaSalle, Gerard, 81 Lavoy, Peter, 70 Levin, Timothy, 15 Lewis, Ted G., 75, 77, 82, 85, 88 Looney, Robert E., 73

ADVISOR INDEX

96

M Maier, William, 43 Malley, Michael, 86 Martoglio, Charles, 91 Maslowski, Wieslaw, 59, 60 McCaffery, Jerry, 3 McCauley, Michael, 29 McEachen, John C., 22, 24 McNelley, Terry, 43 Mehay, Stephen L., 3, 37, 41, 42 Michael, James Bret, 13, 61 Mihelic, Fabian, 84 Miller, H. Lyman, 73 Millsaps, Knox T., 43 Moran, Daniel J., 69 Morgan, Michael A., 22, 23 Murphree, Tom, 45, 47, 50, 51 N Nguyen, Thuy, 14 Nuss, Wendell A., 47, 48, 51 Nussbaum, Daniel, 4 O O’Connell, Robert, 20 Okkonen, Stephen, 60 Olsen, Edward A., 71, 74 Oros, Maj Carl, USMC, 36, 64 P Parker, Andrew, 24 Pelfrey, William V., 91 Pfeiffer, Karl D., Lt Col, USAF, 47, 48, 49, 51 R Radko, Timour, 59 Ratcliffe, Jerry, 84 Rendon, Rene, 5, 7 Rice, Joseph A., 27 Richter, Anke, 6, 84, 88 Rinaldi, Steven M., 57 Robinson, Glenn, 19, 67 Rowe, Neil C., 14 Russell, James A., 68, 70 S Salmeron, Javier, 57 Salmoni, Barak A., 69 Shen, Yu-Chu, 38 Shing, Man-Tak, 13 Shreeve, Raymond P., 44 Simeral, Robert L., CAPT, USN (Ret.), 76, 85 Simon, Cary, 3 Simons, Anna, 19 Singh, Gurminder, 22 Smarsh, David, Col, USAF, 45

Sorenson, A. Donald, 90 Stockton, Paul, 82, 88, 89 Su, Weilian, 21, 24 Swanland, Brian, 73, 78 T Tafoya, William, 79 Thomas, Gail Fann, 4, 17 Timm, Howard W., 86 Trinkunas, Harold, 73 Tsypkin, Mikhail, 67, 68, 70 Tucker, David, 31 Twomey, Christopher P., 71, 74 V Vaidyanathan, Ravi, 21, 22, 63 Voas, Jeffrey M., 61 Vu, Tuong, 69 W Wash, Carlyle H., 45, 47, 48, 49, 50, 54 Weekley, Jeffrey D., 55 Whitaker, Lyn R., 57 Wicks, Andy, 42 Wollman, Lauren F., 86, 92 Wood, R. Kevin, 57 Woodbury, Glen, 77, 81 X Xie, Geoffrey, 13, 14, 34 Z Zomar, Reese, LCDR, USN, 35 Zwally, H. Jay, 59

97

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