2004 Technical Summit Overview

January 26-27, 2004

Tempe, AZ

Technical Summit Objectives

Review status of each Forum’s planned 2004 technical work (scope, purpose, deliverables, & schedule)

Develop a master schedule for technical deliverables

Discuss technical data and analyses needed for §308/§309(g) Reasonable Progress demonstration

Provide an update on the Attribution of Haze project

Alaska

Somewhat unique problems

Inventory

Meteorology

Modeling

International transport

Annual Mean Natural Background Aerosol Estimates1

Particle Component East (μg/m3) West (μg/m3) Error Factor

PM2.5     

Sulfate (NH4HSO4) 0.2 0.1 2

Organics 1.5 0.5 2

Elemental Carbon 0.02 0.02 2 – 3

Ammonium Nitrate 0.1 0.1 2

Soil Dust 0.5 0.5 1.5 – 2

Water 1.0 0.25 2

PM10 3.0 3.0 1.5 - 2

1. From John Trijonis, NAPAP State of Science #24, Appendix A, 1991

Implications of IMPROVEAmbient Monitoring Data - Dust

Implications of IMPROVEAmbient Monitoring Data - Dust

Fine soil and coarse particles are responsible for about 6 to 26% of the annual average reconstructed aerosol light extinction.Fine soil can account for about 10 to 30% of the fine particulate mass.The contribution of fine soil to the aerosol extinction on the haziest days in the West is almost always below 10%, but can be as high as 40%.Coarse material generally contributes less than 20%, but is frequently higher, reaching as high as 90% of the aerosol extinction.

Estimate uniform ROPneeded to reach natural

conditions in 2064

Determine emission reductionsattributable to BART

States / tribes provide2002 EI to WRAP

States / tribes request2018 modeling runs

Complete modeling andcauses-of-haze analysis

Complete assessment ofstrategies (including appor-tionment and econ analysis)

WPAP endorsement ofstrategies and reason-able progress goals

Technical sup-port document

Determine which Class I areaseach SIP/TIP will address

Complete initial (1996)technical assessment (source

apportionment, impact ofexisting controls, etc.)

Phase I Phase II

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Initial Technical Assessmentand Strategy Development

Final Technical Assessmentand Strategy Selection

Definitions

As they apply to emissions sources for WRAP technical analysis projects:

Apportionment – to divide and share out according to a plan, to make a porportionate division or distribution

Attribution – to explain by indicating a cause

Data and Analyses Needed forTOC Attribution of Haze Project

Review results of existing source attribution studies – April 30Framework for addressing technical Reasonable Progress and Natural Conditions guidance requirements – June 30Modeling Results

Initial Source Apportionment Results - June 30Natural versus Anthropogenic results – September 30

Initial Causes of Haze Assessment results – June 30Emissions Inventories

Descriptions of EIs used in initial SA modeling – June 30Descriptions of EIs used in NvsA modeling – September 30

Additional emissions and monitoring data expert review studies (address uncertainty, completeness, et cetera) – July to October

Class I areas Analyzed for §309 Strategies

§309 Modeling Grid(36km grid cells)

Unified RPO Modeling Grid for §308 (red, 36km grid cells)WRAP Modeling Grid for §308/§309(g) (blue, 12km grid cells)

Emissions Data for use inInitial Source Apportionment Modeling (April-June 2004)

Area – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs (excludes wb dust)Biogenics – by RMC (add sea salt)Dust – by RMC - windblown module v1, using 2002 metRoad dust – interpolated 2003 emissions from 1996/2018 ENVIRON dataFire – Air Sciences (Wildland, Rx & Ag Fire) – 2002 interim EIOn-road Mobile - 2003 emissions from ENVIRONOff-road Mobile - 2003 emissions from ENVIRON (NONROAD 2000)Stationary – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs + 2002 EPA utility sector data (growth & control assumptions same as used for §309 2018 base case)Canada – 2000 point/area/mobile – fire?Mexico – first comprehensive EI (ERG 1999 EI for 6 northern states)Off-shore – by RMC (Caribbean, oil/gas production, et cetera)Modeling Domain Boundary Conditions?

Emissions Data for use in Natural versus Anthropogenic Source Apportionment Modeling (August – October 2004)

Area – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs (excludes wb dust)Biogenics – by RMC (add sea salt)Dust – by RMC - windblown module v2, using 2002 metRoad dust – interpolated 2003 emissions from 1996/2018 ENVIRON dataFire – contractor TBD (Wildland, Rx & Ag Fire) – 2002 final EI, NvsA split On-road Mobile - 2003 emissions from ENVIRONOff-road Mobile - 2003 emissions from ENVIRON (NONROAD 2000)Stationary – by Pechan, 2002 projected from 1999/96 EIs + 2002 EPA utility sector data (growth & control assumptions same as used for §309 2018 base case)Canada – 2000 point/area/mobile – fire?Mexico – first comprehensive EI (ERG 1999 EI for 6 northern states)Off-shore – by RMC (Caribbean, oil/gas production, et cetera)Modeling Domain Boundary Conditions?

Emissions Inventories for §308/§309(g)

2002 Interim EIs (done as of April 2004)Support initial source apportionment modeling;

From these modeling results, provide a starting point for states and tribes to identify sources contributing to haze; and

Provide the Causes of Haze Assessment project a database for source/receptor analyses.

2002 Natural/Anthropogenic fire EI splits (initial analysis as of August 2004)

Support modeling analyses of NvsA haze contributions

Emissions Inventories for §308/§309(g)

2002 Final EIs (done as of December 2004)

Support 2005 and later source apportionment modeling;From these modeling results, provide a starting point for states and tribes to identify sources contributing to haze; andProvide the Causes of Haze Assessment project a database for source/receptor analyses.