infocusmagazine · 2004-12-29 · national academy of sciences national academy of engineering institute of medicine national research council the national academies fall/winter 2004

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Fall/Winter 2004

infocusmagazine.org

INFOCUS

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Fighting AIDS and Malaria in the Third World

The Debate Over Access to Genetic Data

Responding to Attacks in U.S. Seaports

How to Determine the Worth of Ecosystems

The nation turns to the National Academies —National Academy of Sciences, National Academyof Engineering, Institute of Medicine, andNational Research Council — for independent,objective advice on issues that affect people’s livesworldwide. Additional information about the institution and its work can be found online at<national-academies.org>.

The National Academies In Focus features broadcoverage of the National Academies’ activities. We welcome your comments on the magazine; e-mail us at <[email protected]>.

In Focus (ISSN 1534-8334) is published three timesa year by the National Academies, 500 Fifth St.,N.W., Washington, DC 20001. Subscription (threeissues): $10; Canada and foreign, $12 (U.S. curren-cy only). Subscription address: In Focus, P.O. Box665, Holmes, PA 19043. Bulk-rate U.S. postage ispaid at Washington, D.C. Back issues and backvolumes can be ordered in microform fromProQuest Information and Learning, 300 NorthZeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106.

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Credits:Cover: (clockwise from upper left) AIDS patient in

Rubwe, Tanzania, ©Louise Gubb/Corbis;©Digital Art/Corbis; Prince William Sound inAlaska, ©Kevin G. Smith/Alaska Stock Images;Woodhouse Terminal, a public shipping facilityon the Houston Ship Channel, courtesy Port ofHouston Authority

Page 1: (col. 1) ©Tom Stewart/Corbis; (col. 2, from top)chips on nerve cells, courtesy LeicaMicrosystems; scenic wetlands of the AtchafalayaBasin in Louisiana, photo by Mike P. Murphree,U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Page 2: Speakers at NAS public symposium on post-ColdWar U.S. nuclear strategy, photo by William K.Geiger

Page 3: Photo by Richard NowitzPage 4: ©Jim Dandy/CorbisPage 6: Liberians awaiting medical treatment, ©Chris

Hondros/Getty ImagesPage 8: ©Leon Zernitsky/Images.comPage 10: ©PhotodiscPages 11&12: Photos courtesy Port of Houston AuthorityPage 13: Nanotechnology chip, courtesy DuPontPage 14: ©PhotodiscPage 15: Bayou Chevee, Ponchartrain, La., photo by Anne

Marino, U.S. Army Corps of EngineersPage 16: Photo courtesy Pacific Northwest National

LaboratoryPage 17: Photo courtesy Richard B. AlleyPages 19&20: Anderson Interns at the National Academies,

photos by Fateema BlackwellPages 21&22: Participants and speakers at NAS public

symposium on post-Cold War U.S. nuclearstrategy, Aug. 11, 2004, photos by William K.Geiger

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD (TRB) REPORTS — Approximately 100 titles issued annually. Freecatalog available on request from TRB, 500 Fifth St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20001 (tel. 202-334-

3213), or visit TRB’s bookstore on the Internet at <national-academies.org/trb/bookstore>.

HOT OFF THE PRESS

Mendel in the KitchenA Scientist’s View of Genetically Modified Foods

Nina Fedoroff and Nancy Marie Brown

Any farmer could tell you that we’vebeen manipulating the genetic makeupof food for millennia, carefully coaxingnature to do our bidding.The practicedates back to the 19th century, whenGregor Mendel — not a scientist, butan Augustinian monk — spent hourstoiling in his garden, testing and cultivat-ing more than 28,000 pea plants andselectively determining specific charac-teristics of the peas that were pro-duced. His work ultimately gave birth tothe idea of heredity and the now verycommon practice of modifying foods.

But as science takes the helm, steering field practices into the labo-ratory, the world is keenly aware of how adept we have become attinkering with nature, which in turn has led to many questions.Aregenetically modified foods really safe? Will the foods ultimately makeus sick, perhaps in ways we can’t even imagine? Isn’t it dangerous tochange the nature of nature itself?

In Mendel in the Kitchen, leading geneticist and molecular biologistNina Fedoroff answers these questions and more. Fedoroff — amember of the National Academy of Sciences who has contributedto the development of techniques used to study and modify plantstoday — and her co-author, science writer Nancy Brown, weave anarrative rich in history, technology, and science to dispel myths andmisunderstandings about genetically modified foods.

Joseph Henry PressISBN 0-309-09205-1$24.95352 pages

Science and Technology in Armenia:Toward a Knowledge-BasedEconomyOffice for Central Europe and Eurasia,Development, Security, andCooperation, Division on Policy andGlobal Affairs (2004, approx. 150 pp.;ISBN 0-309-09278-7; available fromNAP, $33.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Strategies to Leverage ResearchFunding: Guiding DOD’s PeerReviewed Medical ResearchProgramsMedical Follow-Up Agency andBoard on Health Sciences Policy,Institute of Medicine (2004, 192 pp.;ISBN 0-309-09277-9; available fromNAP, $34.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Strengthening Peer Review in FederalAgencies That Support EducationResearchCenter for Education, Division ofBehavioral and Social Sciences andEducation (2004, 106 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09099-7; available from NAP,$25.25 plus $4.50 shipping).

Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilitiesand Improving Responses — U.S.-Russian Workshop ProceedingsOffice for Central Europe andEurasia, Development, Security, andCooperation, Division on Policy andGlobal Affairs, in cooperation withthe Russian Academy of Sciences(2004, 254 pp.; ISBN 0-309-08971-9; available from NAP, $44.00 plus$4.50 shipping).

Understanding Racial and EthnicDifferences in Health in Late Life: AResearch AgendaCommittee on Population, Divisionof Behavioral and Social Sciences andEducation (2004, 184 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09247-7; available from NAP,$37.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

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HEALTH & SAFETY

4 The Battle of the BulgeNational campaign needed to curbchildhood obesity

6 The Fight Against AIDS andMalariaDealing a blow to Third World diseases

RESEARCH & SOCIAL ISSUES

8 Public or Private?The debate over open access to genetic data on pathogens

10 In the National InterestEnsuring the best S&T advice and leadership

ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY

11 Secure at SeaKey steps for rapid response to attacksin U.S. seaports

13 NanotechnologyConferenceEncouragesInterdisciplinaryCollaborationFutures Initiativeoffers venue to discussresearch opportunities across disciplines

ENVIRONMENT & RESOURCES

14 Putting a Price Tag on EcosystemsAn oft-overlooked value in environmentaldecision-making

16 Untapped PotentialFocus needed to fire up research on natural gas source

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIESVolume 4 Number 3

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES INFOCUS2

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

National Academy of SciencesBruce M.Alberts, PresidentJames Langer,Vice PresidentE.William Colglazier, Executive OfficerKenneth R. Fulton, Executive Director

National Academy of EngineeringGeorge M.C. Fisher, ChairWm.A.Wulf, PresidentSheila E.Widnall,Vice PresidentLance Davis, Executive Officer

Institute of MedicineHarvey V. Fineberg, PresidentSusanne Stoiber, Executive Officer

National Research CouncilBruce M.Alberts, ChairWm.A.Wulf,Vice ChairE.William Colglazier, Executive Officer

17 OpinionMaking Sense of a Big Screen Ice AgeBy Richard B. AlleyFrom the former chair of a ResearchCouncil committee that recently examined abrupt climate change

19 SpotlightAnderson Interns Bring a Fresh View to the National AcademiesBy Fateema BlackwellAn Anderson Intern writes about theexperience for her and for her fellowinterns

21 MeetingsA Nuclear Tipping Point? NAS hosts symposium on post-Cold WarU.S. nuclear strategy

23 New Projects & Publications

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In Focus is prepared by the Office of News and PublicInformation.

Executive Director:William Skane

In Focus Editor:Valerie Chase

Assistant Editor: Sara Frueh

Staff Writers: Bill Kearney, Maureen O’Leary,Patrice Pages, Christine Stencel,Vanee Vines

Design: Francesca Moghari

21

Science in Society for the 21st Century

Through the knowledge accumulated by centuries of investigation ofthe natural world, science has enabled people to gain a remarkabledegree of control over their lives. It is an immensely successful en-deavor that has led to an abundance of labor-saving devices, affordedthe security provided by modern medicine and public health, and pro-duced powerful communication and transportation technologies.Science and technology have also allowed humans to harness vast natural resources to meet their needs. But, as an indirect effect, theworld’s population has increased dramatically — heading for some 9 billion by 2050 — requiring ever more resources. As exemplified by the global climatechange induced by greenhouse gases, we are now altering the Earth in irreparable ways.

Science and technology must be more effectively harnessed to reverse these trends. In anincreasingly more crowded and dangerous world, we also need to discredit dogmatism andpromote the scientific spirit of tolerance, reason, and rationality. The good news is that, ina world full of conflicting cultural values and competing needs, scientists everywhere sharea powerful common culture that respects honesty, generosity, and good ideas, independentof their source. India’s Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru had it right when he emphasized,some 50 years ago, the importance of imparting a “scientific temper” to his nation.

Achieving a scientific temper for the world will require strong merit-based institutions ineach nation that are capable of harnessing science and technology to meet both national andglobal needs. It will also require an education system that imparts both scientific abilities andscientific values to all citizens — an “every child a scientist” education goal, in which studentseverywhere carry out activities that resemble science in their classrooms, starting at age 5.

I have just returned from the inaugural meeting of the Science and Technology inSociety Forum in Kyoto, Japan — designed as an annual event that mixes scientists withleaders from the political and business communities in order to help fill many urgentneeds in both industrialized and developing nations. The sense of this forum was perhapsbest summarized by Taizo Nishimuro, the chairman of Toshiba Corp., when he stated that“In the past, science has shaped society; in the future, society must also shape science.” It is clear that — as our enterprise becomes even more important to society — those of uswho are scientists must pay more attention to societal concerns: Simply put, we can nolonger pretend that we are doing our jobs if we exclusively pursue our own science, whilehiding out in our laboratories. Meeting such challenges will require new types of inter-faces between scientists and society.

BRUCE ALBERTSPresident, National Academy of Sciences


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The key to avoiding obesity is elementary:

consume no more calories than your

body needs to fuel itself. But if that simple

prescription was so easy to follow,

rates of obesity among U.S. children

and youth would not have tripled over

the past three decades, inciting

America’s public health leaders to dub

childhood obesity a national epidemic.

Debate rages over what factors are toblame for the increase in childhoodobesity, with fingers pointing to

everything from the abundance of fast foodand soft drink ads to the dwindling of physi-cal education in schools to the changinglifestyles and wavering willpower of kidsand parents. Several recommendations havebeen made for steps that would curb therise in obesity. But unhealthy eating andinactivity are too ingrained in today’s cul-ture to be solved by actions undertaken byone or a few segments of society, says arecent report from the Institute of Medicine.It will take a concerted, far-reaching cam-paign similar to national efforts to curbtobacco use to begin reversing the obesitytrend, the report says. Families, schools, the food and entertainment industries, com-munities, and governments all share the


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burdens of — and blame for — childhoodobesity, and so all have roles to play.

“We’ve drifted into the current situationover the past 30 years because of gradualchanges in society, but we’re not going tojust drift back out,” said Jeffrey Koplan,chair of the committee that wrote thereport, and vice president for academichealth affairs, Emory University, Atlanta.“We need to launch a multilevel assault onobesity in kids, and this report offers theblueprint for a comprehensive campaign.”

Several of the report’s recommendationschallenge entrenched aspects of Americanlife. But preventing childhood obesity willrequire tough choices and a significant shiftin many social norms, Kaplan noted.

The report calls for schools to applynutritional standards developed at thenational level to all foods and beveragesserved on school grounds, including vend-ing machine products. The standards mightentail setting upper limits on particularnutrients, such as fat and sugar. To counterdownward trends in activity levels, schoolsshould ensure that students engage in atleast 30 minutes of physical activity eachday and should expand opportunities forexercise beyond gym classes.

Because research suggests that exposureto food, beverage, and entertainmentadvertisements may adversely affect kids’eating habits and activity levels, theseindustries should develop and implementguidelines for advertising directed at kids.Congress should give the Federal TradeCommission the authority to monitorcompliance and take action against adsthat fail to comply. The restaurant indus-try should continue to expand offerings ofnutritious foods and beverages, and

restaurants should provide calorie contentand other nutrition information.

The report also outlines several specificmeasures that parents should take, includ-ing providing healthy foods in the home,actively discussing their children’s weightwith health care providers, and limitingtheir children’s TV, video game, and recre-ational computer time to less than twohours daily. It calls on community groupsand state and local governments to supportzoning ordinances and plans to enhancesidewalks, bike paths, playgrounds, andother recreational facilities.

While some might say that these andother aspects of the report’s ambitious planwill be too hard to execute, the committeepoints to other national public healthefforts that have proved successful overtime, such as the campaigns to reducetobacco use and to promote auto safety.People used to shun seat belts and evenlaugh at those who wore them, the commit-tee members noted. Now, the vast majorityof people buckle up automatically. — Christine Stencel

-Preventing Childhood Obesity: Health in theBalance. Committee on Prevention of Obesity inChildren and Youth, Food and Nutrition Board, Institute ofMedicine (2004, approx. 482 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09196-9;available from the National Academies Press, tel. 1-800-624-6242; $44.95 plus $4.50 shipping for single copies; alsoon the Internet at <books.nap.edu/catalog/11015.html>).

The committee was chaired by Jeffrey Koplan, vicepresident for academic health affairs, Emory University,Atlanta.The study was funded by the U.S. Department ofHealth and Human Services’ Office of Disease Preventionand Health Promotion; Centers for Disease Control andPrevention; National Institute of Diabetes and Digestiveand Kidney Diseases; National Institute of Child Healthand Human Development; National Heart, Lung, andBlood Institute; National Institutes of Health’s Division ofNutrition Research Coordination; and the Robert WoodJohnson Foundation.

A glance at the health ofdeveloping nationsreveals a grim picture.

Over the past 25 years, HIVand AIDS have swept throughthese countries like a microbial wildfireand now kill 5,000 people a day and infectan additional 5 million every year.Meanwhile, the age-old disease malaria isresurging with a vengeance because ofincreasing resistance to old-line drugs.

To curb malaria and AIDS in the devel-oping world, the United States and otherindustrialized nations will have to provideadequate financial aid and other resources,say two recent reports from the Institute ofMedicine. The reports offer bold plans fortackling these diseases in ways that mini-mize drug resistance and ensure the treat-ments reach those who need them.

Drug combinations con-taining artemisinins, a newtype of antimalarial com-pound derived from aChinese herbal remedy, could

deal malaria a powerful blow, says a reportthat focuses on the disease. The cost, how-ever, presents a formidable impediment tothe widespread use of artemisinin-basedcombination therapies (ACTs); at $1 to $2per course of treatment, few people in poornations can afford them.

If international organizations and worldleaders collectively began to contribute $300million to $500 million annually to create aglobal subsidy for ACTs, these drugs couldbe made available for as little as 10 centsper treatment course, the report says. Thatwould make them as affordable as chloro-quine, the inexpensive drug to which people


The Fight Against AIDS and MALARIA

Dealing a Blow to Third World

Diseases

most frequently turn, but that, unfortunate-ly, is being rendered useless by resistance.

The key to success is making sure thatACTs at subsidized prices reach people inthese nations, where individuals most oftenpurchase malaria drugs themselves fromcorner kiosks or other private sellers. Thereport recommends the creation of a cen-tralized procurement system to buy ACTsat competitive prices and then resell themat much lower prices to public and privatedistributors in these nations. Also, proc-esses for monitoring quality control shouldbe established, as should incentives forcountries to follow prudent malaria preven-tion and treatment policies.

Tackling malaria will be relatively inex-pensive compared with solving the globalHIV/AIDS crisis. In a report that offers anexpert assessment of existing and proposedinitiatives to scale up HIV treatment in theThird World, IOM provided a frameworkand key principles to guide the rollout andexpansion of these programs.

The best chances for success will requiredonor organizations to commit to provid-ing continuous funding for decades.UNAIDS estimates the total annual needfor HIV/AIDS funding to be $10.7 billionfor 2005 and $14.9 billion by 2007. Thetotal estimated funding provided in 2003was only $4.2 billion.

But even if there was enough moneyavailable now to treat every infected individ-ual, global expansion of HIV/AIDS carecould fail just because of the scarcity oftrained personnel and adequate infrastruc-tures to distribute safe and effective thera-pies in resource-poor nations. To address thework-force crisis, a variety of innovativeprograms should be created to bring an

“HIV/AIDS corps” of volunteer medical andother professionals into developing countriesto train their citizens in treatment and pre-vention and to provide technical assistance.Technology transfer and knowledge sharingamong academic institutions, industry, pub-lic health agencies, and nongovernmentorganizations in industrialized and develop-ing nations also should be boosted.

Tackling AIDS on a global scale will nec-essarily involve much learning by doing, thereport says, acknowledging that problemswith organization and patient adherence tocomplex therapy regimens could lead tofaster development of drug resistance, whichultimately might result in widespread treat-ment failure. Therefore, about 5 percent to10 percent of funding should be earmarkedupfront for monitoring and evaluation tohelp discern what is working and whatneeds improvement. — Christine Stencel

-Scaling Up Treatment for the Global AIDSPandemic: Challenges and Opportunities. Committeeon Examining the Probable Consequences of AlternativePatterns of Widespread Antiretroviral Drug Use inResource-Constrained Settings, Board on Global Health,Institute of Medicine (ISBN 0-309-09264-7; $43.00 plus$4.50 shipping for single copies).The committee waschaired by James Curran, dean and professor of epi-demiology, Rollins School of Public Health, EmoryUniversity,Atlanta.The study was funded by the FogartyInternational Center and the Office of AIDS Research atthe National Institutes of Health; and the Bill & MelindaGates Foundation.

-Saving Lives, Buying Time: Economics of MalariaDrugs in an Age of Resistance. Committee on theEconomics of Antimalarial Drugs, Board on Global Health,Institute of Medicine (ISBN 0-309-09218-3; $49.95 plus$4.50 shipping for single copies).The committee waschaired by Kenneth J.Arrow, professor emeritus,department of economics, Stanford University, Stanford,Calif.The study was funded by the U.S.Agency forInternational Development and the Bill & Melinda GatesFoundation.

Both reports are available from the NationalAcademies Press, tel. 1-800-624-6242; also on the Internetat <books.nap.edu>.


Roughly three years ago a team of sci-entists at St. Louis University insert-ed a particular mouse gene — one

that regulates the creature’s immunity —into a mousepox virus. The researchers theninjected the altered virus into mice, where it“jammed” the animals’ immune systems,flooding them with a natural chemical thatblunted their ability to fight off infection.The new virus resulted in an extraordinarilylethal form of the disease, affecting evenmice that had been vaccinated previously.

The experiment was conducted withbenign motives, as part of a larger effort to

explore countermeasures against engi-neered viruses. But it also illustrated amore sinister possibility: that sooner orlater, such genetic engineering might beundertaken by terrorists instead of legiti-mate researchers, with a disease like small-pox instead of mousepox, and withhumans rather than mice.

Policy-makers determined to avoid sucha scenario are debating about how to dealwith genome data on microbial pathogens.Currently the genome sequences for over100 pathogens — including those foranthrax, Ebola, and plague — are freely


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Public orPrivate?

available in public databases around the world. In fact, the U.S. governmentrequires that all genome sequences decodedusing federal funds be made public, withrare exceptions. But some are concernedthat data on pathogens could help terroristsdevelop an enhanced virus to use as aweapon. As federal agencies discusswhether this information should be restrict-ed, they asked the National ResearchCouncil to weigh in.

In terms of fighting bioterrorism,restricting access to this data would prob-ably be counterproductive, a ResearchCouncil study committee concluded. Whileit’s true that a malefactor could nowobtain data on pathogens, any restrictionstight enough to impede this would likelyhobble legitimate research as well —including work on vaccines against thevery diseases apt to be used in an attack.“Open access is essential if we are tomaintain the progress needed to stayahead of those who would attempt tocause harm,” said committee chair StanleyFalkow, a professor of microbiology andimmunology at Stanford University.

Given the interconnections between dif-ferent areas of the life sciences, the reportsays, it would be impossible to predictwhich scientists will need access to whichdata — and this means that someresearchers could find themselves barredfrom information they need. Deciding whatdata should be restricted would be no lessproblematic, because pathogen genomes arenot the only ones that could potentially aida terrorist. In the case of the altered mouse-pox virus, for example, genome data fromthe “host” animal was as crucial to the bio-engineering effort as that from the virus

itself. If data on all pathogens and all hostswere restricted, the report says, it wouldseverely damage the fabric of the global scientific enterprise.

Moreover, restrictions probably wouldn’tbe effective, the committee added. Digitaldata are notoriously difficult to control,and files that contain entire genomesequences are small and therefore easilystored and transferred. And without a uni-form international agreement, users whoare denied access because of U.S. policycould simply turn elsewhere. Instead oftrying to impose restrictions, policy-makersand researchers should focus on exploitinggenome information fully to improve ourdefenses against infectious disease andbioterrorist threats.

The report adds a caveat to its call forcontinued openness, however. While now itwould require a great deal of sophisticationto alter an existing pathogen in a targetedway to make it more dangerous, geneticmanipulation will someday become easierand more widespread. A panel should beformed to regularly review advances ingenome science, to see if future develop-ments warrant additional monitoring of orrestrictions on access to data. — Sara Frueh

-Seeking Security: Pathogens, Open Access, andGenome Databases. Committee on Genomics Databasesfor Bioterrorism Threat Agents, Board on Life Sciences,Division on Earth and Life Studies; and Division on Policyand Global Affairs (2004, 88 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09305-8;available from the National Academies Press, tel. 1-800-624-6242; $18.00 plus $4.50 shipping for single copies; alsoon the Internet at <books.nap.edu/catalog/11087.html>).

The committee was chaired by Stanley Falkow, pro-fessor of microbiology and immunology, StanfordUniversity, Stanford, Calif.The study was funded by theNational Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health,U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the CentralIntelligence Agency.


Many scientists, engineers, and healthprofessionals serve on nearly 1,000federal advisory committees that

offer guidance to U.S. policy-makers andthe nation on a host of issues, from how tobolster homeland security to what foodsAmericans should be encouraged to eat eachday. Scientists also are appointed by thepresident to lead agencies like NASA andthe National Science Foundation, wherethey help set priorities for the nation’sresearch enterprise, the largest in the world.

While there are ample ways for scienceto make its mark on policy, in practice thesystem is far from flawless. The processfor making science and technology (S&T)appointments is lengthy and rife with redtape, discouraging many well-qualifiedcandidates from serving in leadershippositions. Moreover, several groups andmembers of Congress have voiced con-cerns that appointments to federal adviso-ry committees are being increasinglypoliticized. In light of these developments,the National Academies have issued areport — the third on this subject since1992 — recommending ways to improvethe process of recruiting S&T experts.

Soon after an election, the report says, thepresident or president-elect should choose aconfidential science adviser who can helpquickly identify candidates for other keyS&T appointments in the crucial first daysof the administration. This adviser couldeventually serve as director of the WhiteHouse Office of Science and TechnologyPolicy. The president and Senate also shouldstreamline and accelerate the appointmentprocess. For example, they should work toeliminate duplication in background checks— currently one check is required by the

White House and another by the Senate —and to simplify the financial disclosure rules.The goal should be to complete each candi-date’s selection process within four months.Positions that are important to nationalsecurity should be filled even faster.

The independent guidance given by fed-eral advisory committees is critical, thereport says, and this system should not beco-opted by those hoping to promote aforegone conclusion or advance a politicalagenda. Scientists and health professionalsnominated mainly to provide S&T inputshould be selected for their knowledge, cre-dentials, and integrity; they shouldn’t beasked for irrelevant information, such asvoting records or political party affiliation.Agency heads should establish an appoint-ment process supported by explicit policiesand procedures, and staff must have a clearunderstanding of what questions are appro-priate or inappropriate to ask candidates.

In seeking nominees for both presiden-tial appointments and advisory committees,the government needs to cast a wider net,the report adds. It should better publicizeopportunities for service, get input fromrecognized S&T leaders, and strive to iden-tify women and minorities who couldserve. — Sara Frueh

-Science and Technology in the National Interest:Ensuring the Best Presidential and Federal AdvisoryCommittee Science and Technology Appointments.Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, theNational Academies (2004, 224 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09297-3;available from the National Academies Press, tel. 1-800-624-6242; $45.50 plus $4.50 shipping for single copies; alsoon the Internet at <books.nap.edu/catalog/11152.html>).

The committee was chaired by John Edward Porter,partner, Hogan & Hartson LLP,Washington, D.C.Thestudy was funded by the William and Flora HewlettFoundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, and theNational Academies.


In the National InterestENSURING THE BEST S&T ADVICE AND LEADERSHIP

A chemical tanker and a cruise shipcollide in the Houston ShipChannel after being hijacked by a

group of terrorists. This results in a mas-sive blaze, a hazardous materials spill,casualties, and the blockage of the channel,essentially shutting down the Port ofHouston to all shipping.

Fortunately, this incident is fictitious. Butif it did happen, it is not clear whether thenation could bring together the adequateresources quickly enough to handle the sit-uation and reopen the channel and portwith the least economic impact, says a newreport from the National Academies’Transportation Research Board. The equip-ment necessary to conduct such marine sal-vage operations has not been inventoriedrecently and evaluated in sufficient detail to

document its location and how it could bemobilized rapidly to respond to terroristincidents in major seaports, said the com-mittee that wrote the report.

“If such an incident occurred in a busyharbor or waterway, water channels could beblocked for days before the situation goesback to normal, and this could have a majorimpact on the U.S. economy,” said committeechair Malcolm MacKinnon III, managingmember of MSCL LLC, in Alexandria, Va.“Since marine casualties in U.S. waters are atan all-time low, quantities of marine salvageequipment such as standby tugs and vesselshave steadily declined for the past decade andare not available near most harbors, either,because they’re too expensive to maintain.”

To increase readiness for terrorist attacksat sea, the U.S. Navy’s Office of the


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Supervisor of Salvage and Diving — theagency in charge of DOD maritime salvageand underwater search operations —should continue to work with the U.S.Coast Guard — the agency in charge ofmaritime homeland security — and withmajor salvage companies to rapidly identifywhich equipment is available to respond tomaritime emergencies, the report says.

“The problem is that there is limitedamount of specialized heavy-salvage equip-ment available, and because there is a lim-ited amount, it is frequently in use,” said

Captain Jim Wilkins, the U.S. Navy’ssupervisor of salvage and diving and direc-tor of ocean engineering. “Availability ofthe equipment for immediate, emergencyresponse varies from day to day. Our bestmeans to keep up to date with actual avail-ability of commercial heavy-salvage equip-ment is through direct dialogue with ourcolleagues in that industry — a methodthat has proved itself over time.”

To evaluate readiness, experts from thegovernment, academia, and industryshould conduct exercises in which they dis-cuss terrorist scenarios and how equipment

could be mobilized to clear harbors andwater channels in the event of an attack,the committee said. Individual agencies —such as the FBI, U.S. Army Corps ofEngineers, Coast Guard, National SafetyTransportation Board, and local fire andpolice departments — should conduct exer-cises to test their own responses as well.

The report also recommends that thesecretary of homeland security’s NationalMaritime Security Advisory Committeeinclude a marine salvage expert and thatthe Coast Guard’s director of homelandsecurity create a liaison position with theNavy’s Office of the Supervisor of Salvageand Diving. Also, salvage expertise shouldbe part of the National IncidentManagement System, a national plan beingdeveloped by the Department of HomelandSecurity to integrate prevention, prepared-ness, response, and recovery activities.

“The attacks on the World Trade Centerand the Pentagon, as well as the attack onthe USS Cole, suggest that support fornational salvage capabilities should beincreased,” MacKinnon said. “We shouldn’twait for a major incident to happen to get a feel for the equipment required.” — Patrice Pages

-Marine Salvage Capabilities: Responding to TerroristAttacks in U.S. Ports — Actions to Improve Readiness.Marine Board,Transportation Research Board (2004, 38pp.; ISBN 0-309-09459-3; available from the NationalAcademies Press, tel. 1-800-624-6242; $29.00 plus $4.50shipping for single copies; also on the Internet at <national-academies.org/trb/bookstore>).

Malcolm MacKinnon III, managing member, MSCLLLC,Alexandria,Va., chaired the committee.The study wasfunded by the Maritime Administration, U.S. Coast Guard,U.S.Army Corps of Engineers, U.S. Navy Supervisor ofSalvage and Diving, Office of Naval Research, U.S.Department of Energy, National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration, and the National ScienceFoundation.


Operating on a scale 100,000 timessmaller than the width of a humanhair, the science of manipulating

tiny particles too small to see promises newmaterials and techniques that could over-come the limits of conventional medicine.Nanotechnology holds great potential formerging fields as disparate as cell biologyand robotics, presenting opportunities forcollaboration between researchers in verydifferent disciplines. That’s one reason 100scientists, engineers, and medical researchersgathered to attend a two-day, bicoastal con-ference on nanotechnology in September.Sponsored by the National Academies KeckFutures Initiative, the event offered a venuefor researchers to share information aboutadvances and challenges in their fields relat-ed to nanotechnology. The result: Theresearchers developed a common languageto discuss their work, and they recognizedthe need for interdisciplinary collaborationto further their efforts.

“Nanotechnology research has a wideintersection between science, engineering,and medicine,” said Cherry Murray, seniorvice president of physical sciences research,Bell Laboratories, Lucent Technologies, andchair of the conference planning and steer-ing committees. “We want these researchersto forge teams and explore new ideas tospark discovery.”

Conference topics ranged from biologicalmachines to tissue engineering. SpeakerPeter Singer, director of the Joint Centre forBioethics at the University of Toronto,began the conference with a session onethics and philosophical issues surroundingnanotechnology. He called the dividebetween the nanoscience and nanotechnol-ogy community and the technology-warypublic one of the biggest challenges facingthe field and urged the researchers toengage the public and talk about the ethicsof nanotechnology before its opponentsshape the debate, as happened with theissue of genetically modified organisms.

Perhaps one of the most intriguing ses-sions was on the future of medicine. JudithSwain, chair of the department of medicineat Stanford University School of Medicine,delivered a presentation on the emergingfield of pharmacogenomics, which uses thegenome to understand an individual’s dif-ferent responses to drugs. This field offersthe potential to prevent, diagnose, and treatdiseases by understanding genetic varia-tions. Swain also touched on promisingtreatments that incorporate the use of tech-nologies, such as regenerative medicine,stem cell replacement biology, and brain-machine interface in treatment therapies.

In November at the second annualFutures conference, participants continuedtheir discussions on nanotechnology,explored collaborations, and competed for$1 million in research seed grants. Thisyear’s grants are designed to encourageinterdisciplinary collaboration specificallyin the field of nanotechnology. Detailedsummaries of both conferences are avail-able at <national-academies.org/keck>.— Maureen O’Leary


Nanotechnology ConferenceEncourages InterdisciplinaryCollaboration

A ssigning a dollar figure to the com-mercial, recreational, or even aes-thetic value of a crystal clear river,

or to the value of preserving an endangeredspecies, is no easy task, but a new reportfrom the National Research Council saysthat such calculations are a must to accu-rately weigh the trade-offs among environ-mental policy options. Too often, thereport says, goods and services provided byan ecosystem are overlooked in the decision-making process because they are assigned a value of zero in the all-important cost-benefit analyses that form the basis formany environmental policies.

Some ecosystem commodities are moretangible than others. While the market sets

a price on fish sold in stores or on realestate located next to a Superfund site, forinstance, it is harder to put a price on fishcaught for fun or on the scenic worth of anundisturbed wilderness. A value for recre-ational fishing could be determined, how-ever, using a “travel-cost” model based onanglers’ responses to questions about howmany more days they would fish if thestock were bountiful and edible, and howmuch they might spend at local restau-rants, hotels, and tackle shops.

The report identifies several methods forapplying value to ecosystem goods andservices that are not easily quantifiable,often because there is no obvious marketfor them, but that affect other things with


ENVI

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Putting a Price Tag onECOSYSTEMS

definite market values. For example, the“production function” method looks atwhether a change in the health of anecosystem improves or diminishes the serv-ices it provides. Along the Florida andLouisiana coasts, this techniquehas been used to measure ifthe expansion of wetlandmarshes has increasedthe size of the crabpopulation andtherefore the valueof the fishery.“Hedonic” methodscan be employed todetect fluctuations inreal estate value due toarea pollution levels orthe ability of nearby dunesor river banks to control floods.

In other cases, surveys can deter-mine how willing people are to give upproperty rights for conservation purposesor how much they are willing to pay foran environmental improvement that maybe of no direct use to them. After theExxon Valdez disaster, surveys revealedthat Americans were willing to spend anaverage of $33 each on efforts to preventa similar tragedy in Prince William Sound,even though most of them would never seethe Alaska coastline.

Measuring so-called non-use values,including perceived aesthetic and intrinsicvalues, is important because they may bethe largest source of an ecosystem’s worthto society, the report says. It also recom-mends that the “total economic value”framework, which incorporates non-use val-ues, be applied in environmental cost-benefitanalyses. Appraising multiple ecosystem

services is more difficult, the report adds,but doing so provides a better picture of theimportance of the entire ecosystem.

The use of surveys to calculate the valueof ecosystem services has been criticized

because it relies on stated prefer-ences rather than observed

behavior. Techniques todetermine values not

founded on marketpricing also are sub-ject to uncertaintyand bias. Never-theless, the reportconcludes that based

on the scientific liter-ature, valuation meth-

ods are sufficientlymature to support environ-

mental decision-making.Additional funding is needed to foster

collaborations between ecologists and econ-omists on ways to better integrate the studyof ecosystems and their worth to society. — Bill Kearney

-Valuing Ecosystem Services:Toward BetterEnvironmental Decision-Making. Committee onAssessing and Valuing the Services of Aquatic and RelatedTerrestrial Ecosystems,Water Science and TechnologyBoard, Division on Earth and Life Studies (2004, approx.313 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09318-X; available from the NationalAcademies Press, tel. 1-800-624-6242; $45.00 plus $4.50shipping for single copies; also on the Internet at<books.nap.edu/catalog/11139.html>).

The committee was chaired by Geoffrey M. Heal,Paul Garrett Professor of Public Policy and BusinessResponsibility and professor of finance and economics,Graduate School of Business, and professor of interna-tional and public affairs, School of International and PublicAffairs, Columbia University, New York City.The study wasfunded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S.Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Department ofAgriculture.


Plentiful in Arcticregions and beneaththe ocean floor,

methane hydrate is a highlyconcentrated and potentsource of natural gas. Ifmethane could be efficiently plucked fromhydrate deposits, energy supplies from nat-ural gas could be extended for decades —perhaps centuries — to come.

Producing gas from hydrate can be arisky business, however. For starters, accu-rately identifying hydrate deposits remainsa challenge. And there are no hard num-bers on how much of the world’s vastreserves can actually be recovered. Also,methane is a greenhouse gas that has beenwidely cited as a factor in previousepisodes of global warming; releasingmethane from hydrate could affect globalclimate change.

But the potential of this natural resourceis so great that the United States, Canada,Japan, Korea, and India have establishedresearch programs to study it. Congressauthorized the U.S. Department of Energyto conduct or oversee America’s investiga-tions in this area. It also called for theNational Research Council to assess DOE’smethane hydrate R&D program.

On the whole, the program boosts theability of U.S. commercial interests and sci-entists to develop energy from gas hydrateand to understand potential geological con-straints on drilling through hydrate, says anew Research Council report. Still,improvements are needed.

About 60 percent of the program’s an-nual budget of roughly $9 million has goneto three industry-managed research projects.Because of their large size and price tags,

special checks and balancesshould be implemented toaid such efforts, the reportsays. For example, reviewsof how projects have pro-gressed ought to be based

on solid science. The results of these proj-ects also should be available in public data-bases because tax dollars supported the ini-tiatives and other scholars might find theinformation useful.

The program should fund postdoctoralfellowships to enhance training in the field,and it should closely examine any linksbetween methane hydrate and climatechange, the report adds. Program officialsalso should seek more opportunities toform partnerships with international groupsthat are conducting similar research.

Several specific research topics need tobe tackled systematically because they arenot well-understood, such as effective waysto identify hydrate deposits, design com-prehensive field experiments, and make themost of technology in gas-hydrate recoveryand production processes. Overall, greaterscientific oversight of DOE’s program isneeded to ensure that its key goals are met,the report says. — Vanee Vines

-Charting the Future of Methane Hydrate Researchin the United States. Committee to Review the ActivitiesAuthorized Under the Methane Hydrate Research andDevelopment Act of 2000, Ocean Studies Board and theBoard on Earth Sciences and Resources, Division onEarth and Life Studies (2004, 202 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09292-2, available from the National Academies Press, tel. 1-800-624-6242; $43.00 plus $4.50 shipping for single copies; alsoon the Internet at <books.nap.edu/catalog/11094.html>).

The committee was chaired by Earl H. Doyle, anindependent consultant who specializes in the integrationof marine geology, geophysics, and geotechnical engineer-ing, and a former employee of Shell Oil Co., where heworked for 30 years in senior engineering positions.Thestudy was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy.


FOCUS NEEDED TO FIRE UP RESEARCH ON NATURAL GAS SOURCE

Untapped Potential

Making Sense of a

Big Screen Ice Age

T he environment appears to be somewhat less stable in Hollywood than out here inthe real world. We barely had time to recover from an impossibly big earthquakeshaking our TV sets in the movie “10.5,” before we had to face an impossibly large

and rapid climate change freezing over our movie theaters and New York City last sum-mer in “The Day After Tomorrow.”

Fortunately, the prospect of a new ice age “the day after tomorrow” is fiction of thehumorously entertaining sort. But what is the average person to make of the science hid-ing behind movie fiction?

Much is clear. Climate has changed, and will change. There are many humans in theworld, more all the time, and we’re affecting a lot of things including the composition ofthe air. A car produces nearly 300 pounds of carbon dioxide a week, some of which isabsorbed by the oceans or plants, but a lot stays in the air. More atmospheric carbondioxide leads to a warmer planet, based on physical principles that have been well-understood for more than a century. Measurements show that carbon dioxide is rising inthe atmosphere, and that the planet is warming, whether you look at melting glaciers,satellite measurements, or thermometers in the air, on the ground, or under the oceans.

Ice cores, tree rings, and other “histories” of climate show that at certain times in thepast, large and rapid jumps occurred locally across much of the globe, more than 15degrees Fahrenheit in as little as a decade or less. The last of these really big abruptchanges was more than 8,000 years ago, and most were during the last ice age.Ecosystems were forced to move to other locations — had there been more civilizationsthen, people likely would have moved, too. Smaller, regional abrupt climate changes havepersisted into the current warm period, often as quick-starting and persistent droughtsthat may have contributed to the fall of civilizations such as the Mayan empire in theninth century.


Richard B.Alley is

the Evan Pugh

Professor of

Geosciences at

Pennsylvania State

University.Alley con-

ducts research on

the paleoclimatic

records, dynamics,

and sedimentary

deposits of large ice

sheets, as a means of

understanding the

climate system and

its history, and

projecting future

changes in climate

and sea level.

BY RICHARD B. ALLEY OPI

NIO

N

Abrupt changes occur when the Earth’s system is forced just enough to cross a thresh-old. Lean a little in a canoe and you’re still dry. Lean too far, and it flips over. Usually, theclimate has “leaned” slowly in response to changes in sunlight or orbits or carbon diox-ide. But occasionally, it has flipped to a new state and stayed there for centuries or longer.Without even knowing where all the flipping points are in the climate, we can’t control oreven skillfully navigate those changes.

Much attention has been focused on a possible change in the ocean circulation in theNorth Atlantic — a shutdown of the cycle in which cold Arctic water sinks and flowstoward the equator and then brings warmth gained there back to the poles. This shut-down, which has been implicated in past abrupt climate changes, would likely cause cold,dry, and windy conditions across much of the northern hemisphere. Although not impos-sible, a large change soon seems quite unlikely, and would not in any case trigger the nextice age or flash-freeze New York City. Smaller impacts of North Atlantic changes remainpossible, and the slight chance of a big change draws attention. Shifts in droughts orfloods, in such natural variability as El Niño — the warming of ocean currents that affectsrain patterns across much of the world — and in the stability of ice sheets are also ofinterest, and might impact humans and ecosystems in many ways.

Faster and less-expected changes are harder to deal with, potentially causing societaldisruption, economic hardship, and ecological stress. Emerging knowledge of abrupt cli-mate change may prove useful to reduce or avoid these dangers. In deciding what to doabout climate change, we weigh costs and benefits for us and future generations. Planningfor smooth global warming over centuries is in some sense highly optimistic; all historiesof climate show faster and less-predictable bumps and wiggles.

I chaired the National Research Council’s Committee on Abrupt Climate Change,which authored a 2002 report that recommends the study of possible abrupt climatechanges and impacts they might have. The report also recommends that we look for low-cost or no-cost ways — we called them “no-regrets” strategies — that could minimize thepossibility of abrupt changes, and maximize the ability of economies and ecosystems tobend rather than break, in case an abrupt change occurs.

Climate change and warming are highly likely to continue, but this knowledge providesonly a starting place for our ability to predict the future. Confident prediction of climatein your backyard decades from now is still a dream. Those of us who study the climatedon’t expect to rival movie heroes, but we hope to help.


“When I walked into the building, I felt a

scientific vibe, which probably derived

from the many science-related images on

the walls of the main lobby here at the

Academies’ new building,” said Dexter

Mackie upon entering the Keck Center on

his first day. “I didn’t necessarily feel like

Albert Einstein, but I was enthused by the

employees here, who seem to be deeply

interested in their specialties.”

On June 14, six recent graduatesfrom Benjamin Banneker AcademicHigh School in Washington, D.C.,

stepped through the doors of the NationalAcademies, excited to embark on a 10-weekjourney into the work world. My fellowinterns and I made our way to the MarianKoshland Science Museum after an employeeorientation. Newly graduated and now start-ing my first term as an Anderson Intern inthe Office of News and Public Information, I was amazed by the museum’s DNA exhibit,which explains various uses of forensic science — a subject I intend to major in atVirginia Commonwealth University.

Each intern is placed in a particular unitof the National Academies based on his orher interests and skills. Intern JohnnyHernandez said, “The way they placeinterns is strategic not only for them butalso for us, because even if we were notplaced according to our specific sciencecareer interests, we still learn a skill impor-tant to science and can apply it to ourupcoming college year.”

Our group, along with five returninginterns, all have a vested interest in science,though each steering us in a different direc-tion. Zainep Mahmoud, who interned in


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Anderson Interns Bring a Fresh View

to the National Academies

BY FATEEMA BLACKWELL

the Division on Policy and Global Affairs,wants to know and understand the connec-tions between science and law and apply itto her studies in economics at DartmouthCollege in the fall. Zainep desires to makea positive change in the restrictions placedon scientists by the law.

The Anderson Interns contributed tovarious projects this summer, includinghelping produce a four-page report brieffor high school students, and working onstudies about retaining and recruitingminorities in the sciences at the undergrad-uate level, environmental policies of phar-maceutical companies, and much more.

For some of the interns, working at theAcademies sparked new interests in areasof science. Rahel Menghestab, a second-year intern in the Division on Earth andLife Sciences, said that working at theAcademies last summer sealed her decisionto study environmental science.

The interns agree that working at theNational Academies is a learning experi-ence. They gained knowledge in differentareas through reading, editing, and produc-ing reports, attending meetings, and eventraveling. Danielle Green, a returning internin the Board on Radiation Effects Research,attended a meeting in Salt Lake City to hearthe testimony of concerned citizens whowere potentially exposed to radiation from

fallout of nuclear weapons testing duringthe 1950s and ’60s. Back then, they had noknowledge that radiation exposure couldcause health problems. She was saddenedyet impressed at how these individuals stillfight for their lives.

The interns’ mentors also enjoyed beinga part of the Anderson Intern program.They felt that the interns’ ideas and workbrought a fresh perspective to theNational Academies. Employee LaurenAlexander supports this program becauseit opens a door for minorities to enter thescience field.

It is important for the NationalAcademies to continue this programbecause of its effect on the participants. “Ithink the internship is a wonderful experi-ence that fosters interaction with talentedpeople and various aspects of science,”concluded third-year Anderson InternLaTeya Foxx.

Each year, Banneker faculty nominate and

select four graduating seniors for the Anderson

internships. These paid summer positions are

offered to students who want to pursue careers

in science, engineering, or medicine. The interns

begin work after graduation and may be invited

to return for up to three successive summers

during their college studies. The internships are

funded in part by a grant from the Rose-Marie

and Jack R. Anderson Foundation in Dallas.


More than a decade after the fall

of the Soviet Union, why do the

United States and Russia still keep

their ICBMs on hair-trigger alert?

What is the probability that terrorists

will obtain, transport, and detonate

a “suitcase” nuclear bomb in an

American city? And, despite

decades-long anti-proliferation

efforts, is the United States about to

watch helplessly as many more

nations choose the nuclear option

for defense or as a way to threaten

their neighbors?

These were among the sobering questionsraised at a daylong public symposium onpost-Cold War U.S. nuclear strategy, spon-sored by the National Academy of Sciences’Committee on International Security andArms Control in August. In his keynoteaddress, former Secretary of DefenseWilliam Perry warned that he believes thechance of a terrorist nuclear blast some-where in the United States by the end of thedecade now exceeds 50 percent. The worldtoday seems poised at a “nuclear tippingpoint,” Perry added. “If Iran and NorthKorea go nuclear, a new widespread armsrace will be virtually unstoppable, especial-ly in the Middle East,” he said.

What about the strategic U.S. nucleararsenal? Rep. David Hobson (R-Ohio), whochairs a key House appropriations subcom-mittee on nuclear weapons development,said he doubts the utility of a large nucleararsenal in an age of hit-and-run terrorism. Inaddition, he said, “we have too many unmetconventional defense needs in the presentday to afford spending over $6 billion


MEE

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A NuclearTIPPING POINT?

NAS Hosts Symposiumon Post-Cold War U.S.Nuclear Strategy

annually to support a largeand antiquated nuclear-weapons complex.”

However, AmbassadorLinton Brooks, administratorof DOE’s National NuclearSecurity Administration, sug-gested that the U.S. nucleararsenal remains a crucialdeterrent in the face of newthreats. Brooks stated,“Deterrence means we haveto hold at risk things which an adversaryvalues. More and more we see potentialopponents putting important militaryfacilities underground; our efforts todetermine the effectiveness of [an earth-penetrating weapon] reflect a continuedemphasis on deterrence.”

Speakers agreed on the pressing need tobring “loose nukes,” such as small 10-kiloton devices from the old Soviet arsenal,under tighter security controls. Othersemphasized the need to “de-alert” U.S. andRussian ICBMs to prevent an accidentallaunch primed by computer errors or

ambiguous signals following amajor terrorist attack. Butmany at the symposium,including Sidney Drell, emeri-tus deputy director at theStanford Linear AcceleratorCenter, pressed hard on thethreat of further nuclear prolif-eration. They emphasized theneed to change the way nationsthat already have nuclearweapons look upon nuclear

have-nots. The biggest problem in prolifera-tion, Drell said, is that the non-nuclearworld has tired of nuclear nations movingahead with enhancements to their arsenalswhile asking others to show restraint. “We have to stop the attitude that nuclearweapons are good for us, but bad for others,” he said. Rep. Hobson put it as fol-lows: “We cannot advocate for nuclear non-proliferation around the globe and pursuemore useable nuclear weapon options hereat home. That inconsistency is not lost onanyone in the international community.” — William Skane



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ProjectsThe following projects have beenrecently undertaken by units of theNational Academies. The latestinformation about all current com-mittee activities — including projectdescriptions, committee rosters, andmeeting information — is availablein “Current Projects” on theNational Academies’ Web site.

Analyzing the U.S. Content ofImports and Foreign Content ofExports. Center for Economic, Governance,and International Studies, Division ofBehavioral and Social Sciences andEducation. Project director: NevzerStacey. Chair: Edward E. Leamer,director, UCLA Anderson Forecast,and Chauncey J. Medberry Chair inManagement, Anderson School ofManagement, University ofCalifornia, Los Angeles. Sponsor:U.S. House of Representatives SmallBusiness Committee, through the U.S.Department of Commerce.

A Framework for UnderstandingElectronic Voting. Computer Science andTelecommunications Board, Divisionon Engineering and Physical Sciences.Project director: Herb Lin. Co-chairs:Richard Thornburgh, counsel,Kirkpatrick & Lockhart LLP,Washington, D.C.; and RichardCeleste, president, Colorado College,Colorado Springs. Sponsor: NationalScience Foundation.

Guidelines for Human EmbryonicStem Cell Research. Board on Life Sciences, Division onEarth and Life Studies; and Board onHealth Sciences Policy, Institute ofMedicine. Project director: FranSharples. Co-chairs: Richard O.Hynes, Daniel K. Ludwig Professor ofCancer Research, Center for CancerResearch and department of biology,Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology, Cambridge; andJonathan D. Moreno, professor ofbiomedical ethics and director, Center

for Biomedical Ethics, University ofVirginia, Charlottesville. Sponsors:Greenwall Foundation, EllisonMedical Foundation, and theNational Academies.

Improving Cybersecurity Research inthe United States. Computer Science andTelecommunications Board, Divisionon Engineering and Physical Sciences;and National Academy ofEngineering. Project director: CharlesBrownstein. Chair: Joel S. Birnbaum,senior technical adviser to the chiefexecutive officer, Hewlett-PackardCo., Palo Alto, Calif. Sponsors:National Institute of Standards andTechnology, Defense AdvancedResearch Project Agency, NationalScience Foundation, and NationalAcademy of Engineering.

Redesigning Insurance Benefits,Provider Payments, and PerformanceImprovement Programs to PromoteQuality of Health Care Delivery. Board on Health Care Services,Institute of Medicine. Project director:Janet M. Corrigan. Chair: Steven A.Schroeder, Distinguished Professor ofHealth and Health Care, University ofCalifornia, San Francisco. Sponsors:Centers for Medicare and MedicaidServices, and the National Academies.

Review of EPA’s Assessment of theHealth Implications of Exposure toDioxins. Board on Environmental Studies andToxicology and Board on Agricultureand Natural Resources, Division onEarth and Life Studies; and Food andNutrition Board, Institute of Medicine.Project director: Suzanne van Drunick.Chair: David Eaton, associate dean forresearch, School of Public Health andCommunity Medicine; director, Centerfor Ecogenetics and EnvironmentalHealth; and professor, department ofenvironmental and occupational healthsciences and the public health geneticsprogram, University of Washington,Seattle. Sponsors: U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency, U.S. Department ofAgriculture, and U.S. Department ofHealth and Human Services.

Science Learning, KindergartenThrough Eighth Grade. Board on Science Education, Centerfor Education, Division of Behavioraland Social Sciences and Education.Project co-directors: HeidiSchweingruber and Andrew Shouse.Chair: Richard Duschl, professor ofscience education, Rutgers University,New Brunswick, N.J. Sponsors:National Science Foundation,National Institute of Child Healthand Human Development, and MerckInstitute for Science Education.

PublicationsFor documents shown as availablefrom the National Academies Press(NAP), write to 500 Fifth St., N.W.,Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C.20055; tel. 202-334-3313 or 1-800-624-6242; or order on the Internetat <www.nap.edu>. Documentsfrom a specific unit of the NationalAcademies are available from thesource as noted. Prices and avail-ability of all documents are subjectto change. Charges listed are forsingle copies; discounts are availablefor bulk orders.

Accelerating Technology Transition:Bridging the Valley of Death forMaterials and Processes in DefenseSystemsNational Materials Advisory Boardand Board on Manufacturing andEngineering Design, Division onEngineering and Physical Sciences(2004, 68 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09317-1;available from NAP, $18.00 plus$4.50 shipping).

Accident Precursor Analysis andManagement: ReducingTechnological Risk ThroughDiligenceNational Academy of Engineering(2004, 220 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09216-7;available from NAP, $35.00 plus$4.50 shipping).

Advancing Scientific Research inEducationCenter for Education, Division ofBehavioral and Social Sciences andEducation (2004, 140 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09321-X; available from NAP,$32.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Army Science and Technology forHomeland Security, Report 2: C4ISRBoard on Army Science andTechnology, Division on Engineeringand Physical Sciences (2004, 170 pp.;ISBN 0-309-09164-0; available fromNAP, $36.50 plus $4.50 shipping).

California Agricultural ResearchPriorities: Pierce’s DiseaseBoard on Agriculture and NaturalResources, Division on Earth andLife Studies (2004, 178 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09289-2; available from NAP,$35.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Children’s Health, The Nation’sWealth: Assessing and ImprovingChild HealthBoard on Children, Youth, and Families,National Research Council and Instituteof Medicine (2004, 340 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09118-7; available from NAP,$47.95 plus $4.50 shipping).

Computer Science: Reflections on theField, Reflections From the FieldComputer Science andTelecommunications Board, Divisionon Engineering and Physical Sciences(2004, 208 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09301-5; available from NAP, $35.00 plus$4.50 shipping).

Confronting the Nation’s WaterProblems: The Role of ResearchWater Science and Technology Board,Division on Earth and Life Studies(2004, 324 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09258-2; available from NAP, $47.00 plus$4.50 shipping).

Critical Perspectives on Racial andEthnic Differences in Health in LateLifeCommittee on Population, Divisionof Behavioral and Social Sciences andEducation (2004, 752 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09211-6; available from NAP,$69.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Direct and Indirect HumanContributions to Terrestrial CarbonFluxes — A Workshop SummaryBoard on Agriculture and NaturalResources, Division on Earth andLife Studies (2004, 92 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09226-4; available from NAP,$18.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Gulf War and Health: UpdatedLiterature Review of SarinBoard on Health Promotion andDisease Prevention, Institute ofMedicine (2004, 132 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09294-9; available from NAP,$30.75 plus $4.50 shipping).

Hearing Loss: Determining Eligibilityfor Social Security BenefitsBoard on Behavioral, Cognitive, andSensory Sciences, Division ofBehavioral and Social Sciences andEducation (2004, approx. 320 pp.;ISBN 0-309-09296-5; available fromNAP, $49.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Improving the Use of the ‘BestScientific Information Available’Standard in Fisheries ManagementOcean Studies Board, Division onEarth and Life Studies (2004, 118 pp.;ISBN 0-309-09263-9; available fromNAP, $18.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Keeping Score for All: The Effects ofInclusion and AccommodationPolicies on Large-Scale EducationalAssessmentsBoard on Testing and Assessment,Center for Education, Division ofBehavioral and Social Sciences andEducation (2004, 150 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09253-1; available from NAP,$36.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Naval Forces’ Defense CapabilitiesAgainst Chemical and BiologicalWarfare ThreatsNaval Studies Board, Division onEngineering and Physical Sciences(2004, 212 pp.; ISBN 0-309-08872-0; available from NAP, $28.00 plus$4.50 shipping).

Open Access and the Public Domainin Digital Data and Information forScience — Proceedings of anInternational Symposium

Board on International ScientificOrganizations, Division on Policyand Global Affairs (2004, 196 pp.;ISBN 0-309-09145-4; available fromNAP, $40.50 plus $4.50 shipping).

Proposed Criteria for Selecting theWIC Food Packages — APreliminary Report of the Committeeto Review the WIC Food PackagesFood and Nutrition Board, Instituteof Medicine (2004, 132 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09298-1; available from NAP,$30.25 plus $4.50 shipping).

Retooling Manufacturing: BridgingDesign, Materials, and ProductionBoard on Manufacturing andEngineering Design and NationalMaterials Advisory Board, Divisionon Engineering and Physical Sciences(2004, 123 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09266-3; available from NAP, $28.50 plus$4.50 shipping).

Review of the U.S. Army Corps ofEngineers Restructured UpperMississippi River-Illinois WaterwayFeasibility Study — Second ReportWater Science and Technology Board,Division on Earth and Life Studies;and Transportation Research Board(2004, 80 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09436-4;available from NAP, $18.00 plus$4.50 shipping).

Safety of Genetically EngineeredFoods: Approaches to AssessingUnintended Health EffectsBoard on Life Sciences and Board onAgriculture and Natural Resources,Division on Earth and Life Studies;and Food and Nutrition Board,Institute of Medicine (2004, 256 pp.;ISBN 0-309-09209-4; available fromNAP, $35.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Saving Women’s Lives: Strategies forImproving Breast Cancer Detectionand DiagnosisNational Cancer Policy Board,Institute of Medicine and Division onEarth and Life Studies; and Board onScience, Technology, and EconomicPolicy, Division on Policy and GlobalAffairs (2004, approx. 280 pp.; ISBN0-309-09213-2; available from NAP,$44.95 plus $4.50 shipping).


The nation turns to the National Academies —National Academy of Sciences, National Academyof Engineering, Institute of Medicine, andNational Research Council — for independent,objective advice on issues that affect people’s livesworldwide. Additional information about the institution and its work can be found online at<national-academies.org>.

The National Academies In Focus features broadcoverage of the National Academies’ activities. We welcome your comments on the magazine; e-mail us at <[email protected]>.

In Focus (ISSN 1534-8334) is published three timesa year by the National Academies, 500 Fifth St.,N.W., Washington, DC 20001. Subscription (threeissues): $10; Canada and foreign, $12 (U.S. curren-cy only). Subscription address: In Focus, P.O. Box665, Holmes, PA 19043. Bulk-rate U.S. postage ispaid at Washington, D.C. Back issues and backvolumes can be ordered in microform fromProQuest Information and Learning, 300 NorthZeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106.

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Credits:Cover: (clockwise from upper left) AIDS patient in

Rubwe, Tanzania, ©Louise Gubb/Corbis;©Digital Art/Corbis; Prince William Sound inAlaska, ©Kevin G. Smith/Alaska Stock Images;Woodhouse Terminal, a public shipping facilityon the Houston Ship Channel, courtesy Port ofHouston Authority

Page 1: (col. 1) ©Tom Stewart/Corbis; (col. 2, from top)chips on nerve cells, courtesy LeicaMicrosystems; scenic wetlands of the AtchafalayaBasin in Louisiana, photo by Mike P. Murphree,U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Page 2: Speakers at NAS public symposium on post-ColdWar U.S. nuclear strategy, photo by William K.Geiger

Page 3: Photo by Richard NowitzPage 4: ©Jim Dandy/CorbisPage 6: Liberians awaiting medical treatment, ©Chris

Hondros/Getty ImagesPage 8: ©Leon Zernitsky/Images.comPage 10: ©PhotodiscPages 11&12: Photos courtesy Port of Houston AuthorityPage 13: Nanotechnology chip, courtesy DuPontPage 14: ©PhotodiscPage 15: Bayou Chevee, Ponchartrain, La., photo by Anne

Marino, U.S. Army Corps of EngineersPage 16: Photo courtesy Pacific Northwest National

LaboratoryPage 17: Photo courtesy Richard B. AlleyPages 19&20: Anderson Interns at the National Academies,

photos by Fateema BlackwellPages 21&22: Participants and speakers at NAS public

symposium on post-Cold War U.S. nuclearstrategy, Aug. 11, 2004, photos by William K.Geiger

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3213), or visit TRB’s bookstore on the Internet at <national-academies.org/trb/bookstore>.

HOT OFF THE PRESS

Mendel in the KitchenA Scientist’s View of Genetically Modified Foods

Nina Fedoroff and Nancy Marie Brown

Any farmer could tell you that we’vebeen manipulating the genetic makeupof food for millennia, carefully coaxingnature to do our bidding.The practicedates back to the 19th century, whenGregor Mendel — not a scientist, butan Augustinian monk — spent hourstoiling in his garden, testing and cultivat-ing more than 28,000 pea plants andselectively determining specific charac-teristics of the peas that were pro-duced. His work ultimately gave birth tothe idea of heredity and the now verycommon practice of modifying foods.

But as science takes the helm, steering field practices into the labo-ratory, the world is keenly aware of how adept we have become attinkering with nature, which in turn has led to many questions.Aregenetically modified foods really safe? Will the foods ultimately makeus sick, perhaps in ways we can’t even imagine? Isn’t it dangerous tochange the nature of nature itself?

In Mendel in the Kitchen, leading geneticist and molecular biologistNina Fedoroff answers these questions and more. Fedoroff — amember of the National Academy of Sciences who has contributedto the development of techniques used to study and modify plantstoday — and her co-author, science writer Nancy Brown, weave anarrative rich in history, technology, and science to dispel myths andmisunderstandings about genetically modified foods.

Joseph Henry PressISBN 0-309-09205-1$24.95352 pages

Science and Technology in Armenia:Toward a Knowledge-BasedEconomyOffice for Central Europe and Eurasia,Development, Security, andCooperation, Division on Policy andGlobal Affairs (2004, approx. 150 pp.;ISBN 0-309-09278-7; available fromNAP, $33.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Strategies to Leverage ResearchFunding: Guiding DOD’s PeerReviewed Medical ResearchProgramsMedical Follow-Up Agency andBoard on Health Sciences Policy,Institute of Medicine (2004, 192 pp.;ISBN 0-309-09277-9; available fromNAP, $34.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

Strengthening Peer Review in FederalAgencies That Support EducationResearchCenter for Education, Division ofBehavioral and Social Sciences andEducation (2004, 106 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09099-7; available from NAP,$25.25 plus $4.50 shipping).

Terrorism: Reducing Vulnerabilitiesand Improving Responses — U.S.-Russian Workshop ProceedingsOffice for Central Europe andEurasia, Development, Security, andCooperation, Division on Policy andGlobal Affairs, in cooperation withthe Russian Academy of Sciences(2004, 254 pp.; ISBN 0-309-08971-9; available from NAP, $44.00 plus$4.50 shipping).

Understanding Racial and EthnicDifferences in Health in Late Life: AResearch AgendaCommittee on Population, Divisionof Behavioral and Social Sciences andEducation (2004, 184 pp.; ISBN 0-309-09247-7; available from NAP,$37.00 plus $4.50 shipping).

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Fighting AIDS and Malaria in the Third World

The Debate Over Access to Genetic Data

Responding to Attacks in U.S. Seaports

How to Determine the Worth of Ecosystems