2003/04 Winter Energy Market Assessment

November 13, 2003Office of Market Oversight and Investigations

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

2

Progress is being made on issues identified by OMOI in earlier assessments.

Concerns in previous assessments

November 2003 status

Deteriorating financial conditions

$60 billion of market cap gained by major market participants in 2003

Credit deratings have slowed

Managing credit exposure More than $30 billion of stressed debt refinanced (only one company’s debt defaulted)

Continued credit clearing initiatives with mixed results, reducing capital requirements

Shaken confidence in price discovery

FERC Policy Statement (July 2003)

Revised trade press procedures

ICE-initiated price reporting

Continuing potential for manipulation

Isolated incidents

Strained natural gas supply

Improved conditions going into the heating season due to record refill of storage

3

After a decade of low prices, natural gas prices are now more volatile at a higher level.

Sources: Nymex, EIA and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data current through May 2003.

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$1

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$9P

rice

($/

MM

Btu

)

Monthly price (real 2003 dollars)

Monthly price (nominal dollars)Futures strip (from Nov. 5, 2003)

4

Long-term supply uncertainty keeps up prices—e.g., NPC study shows prices likely to remain high through 2025.

Annual Average Henry Hub Prices

Source: National Petroleum Council, “Balancing Natural Gas Policy: Fueling the Demands of a Growing Economy,” September 2003.

2005 2010 2015 2020 20252005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Reactive Path

Balanced Future

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ce (

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$200

2)

5

Natural gas storage rebound significantly improved the prospects for winter 2003/04.

• Stronger storage position than anticipated, mitigating prices• Storage position critical—relationship with price• Protection comes at a cost• Relative cost depends on weather• Use of storage over the last two years has pushed the upper and lower limits of capacity

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Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Vo

lum

e (

Bc

f)

5-year range (98/99-02/03)

2003-04

2002-03

Source: EIA, Form EIA-912, “Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report. Data through week ending October 31, 2003.

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ar a

ver

ag

e st

ora

ge

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Storage deviations from "same week" 5-year average (Bcf)

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nry

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b w

ee

kly

av

era

ge

sp

ot

pri

ce

s (

$/M

MB

tu)

Storage inventory has a strong relationship with price levels and volatility.

Source: OMOI analysis based on RDI and EIA.

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5-ye

ar a

ver

ag

e st

ora

ge

$0

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-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800

Storage deviations from "same week" 5-year average (Bcf)

He

nry

Hu

b w

ee

kly

av

era

ge

sp

ot

pri

ce

s (

$/M

MB

tu)

Storage inventory has a strong relationship with price levels and volatility.

Feb 2003

Source: OMOI analysis based on RDI and EIA.

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5-ye

ar a

ver

ag

e st

ora

ge

Storage inventory has a strong relationship with price levels and volatility.

Feb 2003Mar 2003

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-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800

Storage deviations from "same week" 5-year average (Bcf)

He

nry

Hu

b w

ee

kly

av

era

ge

sp

ot

pri

ce

s (

$/M

MB

tu)

Source: OMOI analysis based on RDI and EIA.

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5-ye

ar a

ver

ag

e st

ora

ge

$0

$2

$4

$6

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-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800

Storage deviations from "same week" 5-year average (Bcf)

He

nry

Hu

b w

ee

kly

av

era

ge

sp

ot

pri

ce

s (

$/M

MB

tu)

Storage inventory has a strong relationship with price levels and volatility.

Feb 2003Mar 2003

Apr-Oct 2003

Source: OMOI analysis based on RDI and EIA.

10

But forward prices indicate that resulting storage inventory costs may be high.

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ric

e (

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MB

tu)

Estimated cost of gas in storage = $5.25

Heating season strip (Nov. 5, 2003)

Next injection season strip (Nov. 5, 2003)

Difference between cost of gas in storage and futures strip (Nov. 5, 2003)

Source: Platts’ Gas Daily, Nymex, and EIA. Cost of gas in storage is estimated using the volume-weighted average Henry Hub weekly gas prices over the 2003 injection cycle and does not reflect holding costs.

11

Last winter, storage inventory costs were relatively low.

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2

Dec-0

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ce

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/MM

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)

Estimated cost ofgas in storage = $3.33

Heating season daily cash prices

Difference between cost of gas in storage and cash prices

Average cash price of gas during heating season = $5.49

Source: Platts’ Gas Daily and EIA. Cost of gas in storage is estimated using the volume-weighted average Henry Hub weekly gas prices over the 2003 injection cycle and does not reflect holding costs.

12

Weather for winter 2003/04 is the key short-term uncertainty regarding natural gas.

• In an extreme cold-weather scenario, prices are higher and volatile

– Storage drained with high consumption

– Heating oil prices remain high, discouraging fuel switching

– Resulting storage inventory costs lower than wholesale prices

• In an extreme warm-weather scenario, wholesale prices drop but retail prices remain relatively higher

– Late-winter storage withdrawals required for physical operations

– Storage competition with production forces down prices

– Resulting storage inventory costs raise average retail costs through winter

• Weather is unpredictable

– For example, Northeast weather intensity (cumulative HDDs) over the last decade varied by 40%.

13

Weather for winter 2003/04 is the key short-term uncertainty regarding natural gas.

Cold winter in the Northeast resulted in large storage draw-down.

Sources: HDD data for NYC LaGuardia from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (www.CME.com). Storage data for Eastern Consuming region from EIA/AGA.Notes: Cumulative HDDs measured from Nov-1 through Mar-31. Storage draw-down measured from Nov-1 through Mar-31.

(R2 coefficient = 0.929)

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Cumulative heating degree days (HDDs)

Sto

rag

e d

raw

-do

wn

(B

cf)

2001-2002

1994-19951999-2000

1997-19981998-1999

1996-19972000-2001

1995-1996

2002-2003

93% of variation in storage draw-downis explained by cumulative HDDs

14

In general, winter natural gas system flexibility has declined.

• Higher reliance on baseload gas-fired electric generation

– 56 GW of new combined cycle generation added since 2002

– Equivalent of ~4.7 Bcfd (about 5–6% of typical winter peak demand)

• Low levels of demand elasticity

– Feedstock fuel switching

• Estimates of fuel switching capability as low as 5–10% of total industrial gas demand

– Electric generation fuel switching

• Dual-fueled units available in few regions

• Fuel switching capability estimates as high as 30% of total gas-fired power generation, but actual capability may be limited by:

– Access to alternate fuels

– Warranty restrictions on using alternate fuels in newer vintage turbines

– Environmental restrictions

Source: New generation data from EIA. Equivalent gas demand estimate based on 50% capacity factor.

15

• During peak demand, or in cases of equipment failure, transmission congestion could occur.

– Basis differentials increase in the market area during cold weather.

– February Price Spike Study showed that pipeline and distribution flow restrictions can increase price levels and exacerbate volatility.

• Winter gas flexibility has improved in some areas in response to market forces.

– West: 1 Bcf of new capacity from Rocky Mountains into central California and southern Nevada (Kern River)

– Southeast: 1.5 Bcfd of new pipeline capacity into Florida (GulfStream and FGT)

– East: Increased delivery capacity since last winter (Cove Point and DistriGas LNG)

– Midwest: Additional gas deliverability into Wisconsin (Horizon and Guardian short-haul systems)

In general, winter natural gas system flexibility has declined. (cont’d)

16

Gas value-added for generation versus space heating appears greatest in New England and California for winter 2003/04.

Source: Burnham Securities, Inc., “Spark Spread Monitor,” Tables 5 and 6, November 10, 2003.

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Mid-

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NP-15

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gy

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ass

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ve

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e (

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/MW

h) First quarter 2003

First quarter 2004 (estimated)

17

Survey responses reveal mixed industry reaction to Policy Statement.

• Commission’s Policy Statement on price discovery highlighted current problems and provided standards to improve accuracy, reliability and transparency of indices

• Staff monitoring plan includes:

– Survey of industry

– Individual meetings with price index publishers

– Meetings with associations

– Liquidity workshop

• Slight decline in number of companies reporting transactions; gas lowest

• Slight decline in number of publishers to whom data is reported

• Some companies plan to resume reporting late 2003 or early 2004 (e.g., Constellation, El Paso Merchant, PG&E, Williams Power)

• Other companies are waiting for clarification of the Policy Statement or see no value in reporting their transactions

• Presentations at Nov. 4 workshop on liquidity reported more encouraging progress

18

Modest growth is evident in new electricity futures contract on NYMEX.

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mb

er

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ntr

ac

ts

Volume

Open interest

Source: Nymex statistical group and www.nymex.com. Data current through October 2003.

Volume Prices

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Heating season forward curve (Nov. 11, 2003)

Cooling season forward curve (Nov. 11, 2003)

PJM monthly electricity futures contract

19

Credit remains an ongoing concern related to the operations of all energy markets.

• Financial credit ratings and liquidity issues

– Successful refinancings and debt extension relieved short-term concerns (among those that did not file for bankruptcy)

– Long-term prospects and solvency still under pressure of low spark spreads and weak electricity capacity markets

• Transactional credit issues

– Studies like the Price Spike Study underscore the effects of credit on transaction costs (some market participants had difficulty finding creditworthy partners during February price spike)

– Progress made in credit clearing

• Nymex

– Gas: 11.7 quadrillion Btus cleared

– Electricity: 70 million MWh cleared

• ICE

– Gas: 20.6 quadrillion Btus cleared

• Competitors have had more limited traction

– Need to monitor margin levels for virtual bids and offers in some ISOs

20

Based on this and previous assessments, these are some of the factors OMOI will be monitoring this winter:

• Natural gas storage

– Storage status

– Quality of storage data

• Spread between spot gas prices and the cost of gas taken out of storage

• Interaction of electric generation and cold weather

– Price effects

– Reliability effects (e.g., pipeline constraints on fuel for power generation)

• Transaction reporting

– Price and volume reporting

– Cooperation with FERC’s Policy Statement

• Creditworthiness issues and implications