2002 Pit Felker Slides

8/13/2019 2002 Pit Felker Slides

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Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002

Global Trade of NPK CompoundsGlobal Trade of NPK Compounds

Current Situation and TrendsCurrent Situation and Trends

IFA Production and International Trade Committee ConferenceIFA Production and International Trade Committee Conference

October 2002October 2002

Qubec

presented by Joachim Felker

President of fertiva GmbH, Germany

Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002 /1

Development of the Complex Fertilizer Market in Western Europe

Complex Fertilizers - Production & Consumption around the World

China - the Future Complex Fertilizer Market

World Trade of NPKs

Summary

Agenda


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2Global Trade of NPK Compounds - Current Situation and Trends16-18 October 2002

Complex Fertilizers:

All nutrients in one grainAll nutrients in one grain

Topic of Interest


1965-1975

in Western Europe production capacityrises from 1.9 Mill. to 4.0 Mill. t of nitrogen

0

1

2

3

4

History of NPK fertilizers

1913

start of the industrial ammonia production based onthe Haber-Bosch-Synthesis at BASF Ludwigshafen

1926

start of the Nitrophoska production at

BASF Ludwigshafen

1936

in Western Europe different companiesstart building up NPK plants

1975

1965

Mill.tN


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

%N

Market Share Development of Complex Fertilizers

in Western Europe

Source: EFMA

including blends and mixed granules


Western Europe

N-Fertilizer Capacities of Important Producers

Mill. t N

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

Norsk

Hydro

fertiva*

Kemira

Fertiberia

GP

DSM

Terra

SKW

Piesteritz

Agrolinz

Melamin

Adubos

de

Portugal

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

UKF

BASF IC

I

APC

F

ert

im.

An

ic

Co

faz

CWH

En

fersa

Norsk

Hy

dro

Gesa

Linz

Carbo

ERT

Q

uimig

.

Ho

ec

hs

t

Cros

K

em

ira

F

isons

G

ard

in.

Supra

Esso

GP

NET

Nit.Fert.

S

uperf.

Se

fan

it.

SIR

Phos.

Fert

Hell.

Chem.

A&W

Nicas

W

indm

ill

2002

1980

* incl. marketing capacity Bayer


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NPK *

Development Capacity Indices in the EFMA Countries

Source: Annual Report 2002

* excluding mixed granules

in %in %

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

89/90

90/91

91/92

92/93

93/94

94/95

95/96

96/97

97/98

98/99

99/00

00/01

Total N NPK


! Increasing amount of different formulas

! Low content of P2O5

! Increasing demand for sulfate

! availability of special trace elements as Se

! High Tech Complex Fertilizers as for example

Changes in the Western European

Complex Fertilizer Market

InhibitorsInhibitors

Coated

Slow Release

Development Growth Maturity AgeYears

SalesNPK Cl

StraightsNPK/ S

Urease

Inhibitors


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World NPK installed CapacitiesActual Production and Consumption

North America

Latin America

Africa

Asia

WestEurope

Oceania

Former USSR

EastEurope

mill. t Nmill. t N

0.30.21.4

0.30.21.5

Capacities 9.3 9.9Production 5. 7 6.4

Consumption 7.7 8.8

2000/01 2005/06

2.7 2.62.1 2.12.0 1.80.7 0.70.4 0.40.3 0.3

1.1 1.10.6 0.60.2 0.2

0.2 0.20.2 0.20.3 0.3

0.3 0.30.2 0.20.3 0.3

3.9 4.6

3.14.1

2.13.0

0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

- Capacities = NPK- 2005/06 = estimated

- Consumption (mixed granules and blends arenot schown as NPK consumption, except for USA,

Japan, Turkey and West Europe).


World

Population Growth

in Bill.

Asia/OceaniaAfrica

Latin-America

North-America

Europe

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2025 2050


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Production and Consumption in Asian Countries

0

0,5

1

1,5 China

0

1

India0

0,5

1

1,5Southkorea

0

0,5

1

1,5 Japan

0

0,5

1

1,5Thailand

0

0,5

1

1,5 Turkey

0

0,5

1

1,5Philippines

0

0,5

1

1,5 Others

ConsumptionConsumption

1995/96 2,6 1,52000/01 3,1 2,1

2005/06 4,1 3,0

ProductionProduction Blends and mixedgranules are included

in the consumption

figures in Japan and

Turkey

mill. t N


World Major NPK Exporters

mill. t productmill. t product

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

FSU

Western

Europe

S.Korea

Jordan

Philip.

others

Year Total

1990 5.3

1995 7.4

2001 7.4

Source: Efma


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World NPK Trade Flowsof Major Exporting Countries in 2001 (estimated)

Chin

a

Mexico

Germ.0.3

WE

ChinaIra

n

Thaila

nd

N./S

.Korea

o.1 Japan

Polan

d0.1

Venezu

ela

Kenia

Russia

Thail

./Viet

n.

Jordan

mill. t product

0.1

0.1

1.60.5

0.1

0.10.3

0.1

0.2

S.Korea

0.2

0.2

Philippines

Source: Efma


World Major NPK Importers

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

WE

Asia

Central

Europe

Africa

N.America

Latin

America

FSU

Oceania

others

mill. t productmill. t product

Year Total

1990 5.3

1995 7.4

2001 7.4

Source: Efma


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Import Duties

! Africa: 0-5% exception: Algeria 15%

! Asia: 0-5% exception: Saudi-Arabia: 12%

China: 4% - for quantities exceeding

quota: 50%

! South America: 0-10%

! North America: 0%

! Eastern Europe/FSU: 0-11%

! Western Europe 6.5% no duties for GSP* countries

(some countries have preferential duties based on bilateral trade relations)

* GSP = general system of preferences


World

NPK Projects* from 1990 to 2004 and later

* New installations and extensions due to technical improvements

Source: EFMA

mill. t Nmill. t N

China 2.46

Thailand

0.15 Poland

0.14 USA

0.13India 0.12

Indonesia 0.11Malaysia 0.06

Turkey 0.06Russia 0.04

others 0.17

Total 3.43Total 3.43


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China

NPK Plants

1000 t product

+ Project:

Dec.2004

+ Project:

July 2003

+ Project:

July 2004

Plants

+ Project:July 2003

601-1.200401- 600

201- 400

1- 200

Project under study

IFA-Quebec13/-20.8.2002


China - Reasons for Higher Complex Fertilizer Use

China National Chemical Information Center: Consumption of chemicallyConsumption of chemically

(June 2001) produced NPKproduced NPK

will increasewill increase

annually of an amount of 20%annually of an amount of 20%

! due to high unexploited potential of

fertilizer use in the west of China

! due to the constant expansion of Cash

Crop areas

" due to higher income, farmers tend to

use more and high valuable fertilizers


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WTO Agreement - Liberalisation of Trade


Summary

The NPK- market is influenced by certain factors:

" agriculture situation (income of farmers, produced crops)

" subsidies of companies, raw material, energy

" import duties

" population development

" life cycle

! The European Market is looking for new challenges

! China is a developing NPK market. Imports are still high but are gaining less

importance because of own production

! FSU countries are exporters, selling product at low prices. As importers they are of no

importance. Consumption is very low.

! South American markets do mostly have import duties. Furthermore the economical

situation in some major markets prevents imports.

Documents

2002 Pit Felker Slides