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2nd AIACC Asia and the Pacific Regional Workshop
A Risk-Based Approach to Adaptation
(ADB Technical Assistance to the Pacific)
Presented by:Edy Brotoisworo
Asian Development Bank
• Climate Change Adaptation Program for the Pacific (CLIMAP)
IMPLEMENTATION: Asian Development Bank
IN COOPERATION WITH: Government of FSMGovernment of the Cook Islands
SOURCE OF FUNDING: Canadian Government under the Canadian Cooperation Fund for Climate Change – GHG abatement, carbon sequestration and adaptation
CONSULTANT: Maunsell Ltd, in association with: International Global Change Institute (IGCI)
Objectives: mainstreaming climate adaptation through integrated risk reduction (CCIRR) into development planning in selected PDMCs and ADB operations
Activities: a. ADB Operations
b. Pilot activities (Cook Islands & FSM)
CLIMATE SYSTEM Extreme Events Variability Change
TIME
Human Activities
Consequences(Characterize
&Evaluate)
Likelihood(Characterize
&Evaluate)
Reduce Riskthrough
Disaster Reductionand Adaptation
Raise Risk Thresholdthrough
Adaptation
Reduce Riskthrough
Greenhouse Gas
Mitigation
UnacceptableRisks
AcceptableRisks
Learn fromExperience
Responding to Climate Variability & Change
Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 140 years
0.6 + 0.2oC.
S e a L e ve l a t P o h n p e i (1 9 7 4 -2 0 0 3 )
0
2 0 0
4 0 0
6 0 0
8 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 9 7 4 - 2 0 0 3
Sea
Leve
l Rel
ativ
e to
Dat
am (c
m)
.Sea L evel at Pohnpei
(1974-2003)
How much warmer will it be?
Increase in mean temperature by 2100
3oF
By how much will sea level rise?
0.5 ft
lowest emissions
1.3 ft
typical emissions
2.8 ft
highest emissions
1978 2001
Hourly Sea Level, Pohnpei40 inches
mm
Past Future
Raro Sea Level 1977-2002
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1
23
8
47
5
71
2
94
9
118
6
14
23
16
60
18
97
21
34
23
71
26
08
28
45
30
82
33
19
35
56
37
93
40
30
42
67
45
04
47
41
49
78
52
15
54
52
56
89
59
26
61
63
64
00
66
37
68
74
711
1
73
48
75
85
78
22
80
59
82
96
85
33
87
70
90
07
92
44
1977 - 2002
Se
a L
ev
el
Sea Level – Rarotonga (1977 – 2002)PamDec1997
SallyJan 1987
ValDec 1991
GeneMar 1992
PeniFeb 1990
How much wetter will it be?
Pohnpei Precipitation 1960 - 2100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2040
2042
2044
2046
Dai
ly R
ainf
all (
mm
)
Past Future
Daily Rainfall 1960-2100
12 inches
Rarotonga Aero Rainfall
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan 1929 - Feb 2004
Ra
infa
ll (
mm
)
Daily Rainfall – Rarotonga (1929 – 2003)
Consequences for Human HealthDengue - Rarotonga 1991-2003
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan-
91
Jul-9
1
Jan-
92
Jul-9
2
Jan-
93
Jul-9
3
Jan-
94
Jul-9
4
Jan-
95
Jul-9
5
Jan-
96
Jul-9
6
Jan-
97
Jul-9
7
Jan-
98
Jul-9
8
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Nu
mb
er
of
Pe
op
le I
nfe
cte
d
FSM Case Studies
Reflecting Climate Risks in Infrastructure Design and Local
Level Decision MakingDemonstrated by
“Climate Proofing” infrastructure and otherDevelopment projects
Reflecting Climate Risks in Landuse Planning, Regulations and Permitting
Demonstrated by“Climate Proofing” such instruments as
the Building Code, EIA Regulations and Procedures, And Health Regulations
Reflecting Climate Risks in National Development Planning
Demonstrated by“Climate Proofing”
National Strategic Development Plans
Immediate, Project Level
Long Term, N
ational Level
“Cimate Proofed” Development
Enabling Environment
CCAIRR Promotes Integration……
…….Mainstreaming
“Climate Proofing” is shortand for
reducing, to acceptable levels, the risks due to climate
variability and change, including extreme events
Climate Proofing FSM’s National Strategic Development Plan
• “……… Infrastructure designed, located, built and maintained to avoid unacceptable risks to infrastructure associated with natural hazards, including weather and climate extremes, variability and change.”
• “……… Conduct risk assessments at state level and develop national- and state-level guidelines to ensure risks to infrastructure development projects are identified and addressed in a cost effective manner at the design stage.”
National Strategic
Development Plan
How will Climate Change Reduce Project Sustainability?
Pohnpei Precipitation 1960 - 2100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2040
2042
2044
2046
Dai
ly R
ainf
all (
mm
)
Past Future
Daily Precipitation for Kosrae
1960-2050
300 mm
Roading Project: Kosrae (FSM)Design Life: 50 yr
Design Rainfall: Hourly rainfall with return period of 25 yr
Used: 177 mm2000: 190 mm2050: 254 mm
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ho
url
y R
ain
fall
(in
che
s)
2000: 190 mm (7.5 in)
2050: 254 mm (10 in)
Climate Change will Increase Road Maintenance Costs
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Years from Construction
Ac
cu
mu
late
d M
ain
ten
an
ce
Co
sts
(U
S$
10
00
)
No Climate Change
With Climate Change
How can Project Sustainability be Maintained Despite Climate
Change?
“Climate Proofing” is shortand for
reducing, to acceptable levels, the risks due to climate
variability and change, including extreme events
Costs (2004 $US)
• Current Design
Road Surface $1,254,414
Drainage Works $ 640,233
Total $1,894,647
• Climate Proofed Design
Road Surface $1,254,414
Drainage Works $1,151,397
Total $2,405,811
Construction Costs:RS4 (6.6 km section to be built)
IncrementalCost
$511,164
Cost-Benefit Analysis:RS4 Section Yet To Be Built
Net Present Values:Current Design• No climate change $4,475,200• With climate change $7,803,064Climate Proofed Design• With climate change $4,986,364
Internal Rate of Return 11%
Costs (2004 US$)
• To be built section (6.6 km)
• US$ 77,449 per km
• Built section (3.2 km)
• US$ 242,558 per km
Incremental Costof Climate Proofing the Road
Higher costs if climate
proofing is retroactive
Will Addressing Climate Change: Increase project costs?
Reduce project viability?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 10 20 30 40 50
Years from Construction
$US
mil
lio
n
Accumulated Costs – RS4 (to be built)
Climate Proofed
CurrentDesign
Climate Change will ReduceCommunity Sustainability
SokehsFederated States of Micronesia
Costs and Benefits of ReducingFlooding in Sapwohn Village
Adaptation Cost Reduction in damage costs No climate change 110,588 533,475 With climate change 390,155 2,161,531 Increment 279,567 1,628,056
Costs and Benefits of Adaptation
Total damage costs for period No Adaptation With Adaptation Without climate change 5,543,729 5,010,254 With climate change 12,679,321 10,517,790
Damage Costs
What are the Implications for Government and ADB
Operations?
Climate Proofing the Strategic
Development Plan
The Adaptation Mainstreaming Guidelines
MainstreamingPrinciples
Enhancingthe
Enabling Environment
Harmonizingwith
SustainableDevopment
Some Key Points……….• Despite international efforts to reduce greeenhouse gas
emissions, the need to adapt to climate change is inevitable
• Climate change will manifest largely as changes in the frequency and consequences of extreme events, rather than as long-term trends in average conditions
• Adaptation should be based on effective and efficient risk reduction strategies
• Adaptation costs (including incremental costs) and benefits can be quantified. Typically adaptation is a cost effective intervention, especially when implemented at the design stage of a project. Retrospective adaptation incurs far greater costs
Some Key Points……….
• Requires integration (“mainstreaming”) of adaptation, across time scales and three levels:– National policy: National Strategic Development Plan– Sector policy: Landuse planning, regulation &
enforcement– Project planning and implementation
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
