Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Potash OutlookKevin Stone
Natural Resources Canada
TFI Fertilizer Outlook and Technology ConferenceFort Lauderdale, FloridaNovember 16, 2016
2
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Outline
Historical Consumption and Supply
Outlook for Demand and Supply
Demand Fundamentals Major Consuming Countries Major Suppliers Summary
3
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Historical Potash Consumption and Supply
4
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Historical Consumption
22,095 22,855 23,398
26,148 27,654
25,967 26,674
28,793
24,358
22,535
27,294 28,837 29,262
30,495
32,294 32,325
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000
tonn
es K
2O
World Potash Consumption (000 t K2O)
Sources: IFA, NRCan
5
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Historical Production
25,874 25,859 26,468 27,967
31,167 32,794
29,426
33,531 32,498
19,126
31,767
34,372 32,048
33,610
38,628 38,908
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
000
tonn
es K
2O
World Potash Production (000 t K2O)
Sources: IFA, NRCan
6
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Supply Exceeded Consumption
3,779 3,004 3,071
1,818
3,513
6,826
2,752
4,738
8,140
‐3,408
4,473
5,535
2,786 3,195
6,334 6,583
‐4,000
‐2,000
‐
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000 tonn
es K2O
World Potash Supply/Use Balance (000 t K2O)
Sources: IFA, NRCan
7
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Outlook for Demand and Supply
8
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Demand Outlook
32,700 33,700 34,700 35,600 36,500
6,200 6,300 6,400 6,500
6,700
‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
000 t K
2O
Demand Forecast (000 t K2O)
Demand for Fertilizer Demand for Industrial UseSources: IFA, NRCan
9
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Supply Outlook
56,000 58,100
61,600 62,100 64,500
42,800 44,900
47,200 49,700 51,000
36,600 38,600
40,800 43,200 44,300
‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
000 t K
2O
Potential Supply (000 t K2O)
Capacity Supply Available for FertilizerSources: IFA, NRCan
10
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Forecast Oversupply
36,600 38,600
40,800 43,200 44,300
32,700 33,700 34,700 35,600
36,500
‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
000 tonn
es K2O
Demand/Supply Balance for Fertilizer Use (000 t K2O)
Supply for Fertilizer Demand for FertilizerSources: IFA, NRCan
11
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Actual Oversupply and Forecast
3,779 3,004 3,071
1,818
3,513
6,826
2,752
4,738
8,140
‐3,408
4,473
5,535
2,786 3,195
6,334 6,583
3,900
4,900
6,100
7,600 7,800
‐4,000
‐2,000
‐
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Oversupply Forecast (000 t K2O)
Sources: IFA, NRCan
Forecast
12
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Demand Fundamentals
13
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Population Growth
2.52.8
3.03.3
3.74.1
4.44.8
5.35.7
6.16.5
6.97.3
7.88.1
8.58.8
9.29.5
9.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Bill
ion
World Population Growth (billion)
Source: UN
Forecast
14
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
World Arable Land
1,220
1,240
1,260
1,280
1,300
1,320
1,340
1,360
1,380
1,400
1,420
1,440
196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013
Million he
ctares
World Arable Land (million hectares)
Source: FAO
15
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Arable Land Per Person
Source: World Bank
‐
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013
Hectares
Hectares of Arable Land Per Person
World Average Arable Land per Person China India Brazil USA
16
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Potash Use by Crop
Cereals: Wheat, Rice, Corn and Others
37%
Oilseeds: Soybean, Oil Palm and Others
20%
Fruits and Vegetables20%
Other Crops15%
Sugar Crops8%
Global Potash Use by Crops, 2010/11
Source: IFA
17
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Grain Production
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
mill
ion
tonn
es
World Grain Production (million tonnes)
Wheat and Coarse Grain Rice MilledSource: USDA
Forecast
18
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Fruit and Vegetables Production
‐
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013
million tonn
es
World Fruit and Vegetables Production (million tonnes)
Vegetables and Melons Fruit Excluding Melons Citrus FruitSource: FAO
19
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Oilseeds Production
261287 295
304 314325 332
338
384 394406
392 400
447461
447475
504
537519
534
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
mill
ion
tonn
es
World Oilseeds Production (million tonnes)
Source: USDA
Forecast
20
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Major Consuming Countries
21
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
China
Sources: FAO, IFA
‐
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
tonn
es K2O
Production, Imports and Consumption (000 t K2O)
Production Imports Consumption
22
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
China – Demand/Supply Outlook
Sources: FAO, IFA
‐
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
000 t K
2O
Forecast: Production, Imports and Demand (000 t K2O)
Production Imports Demand
Forecast
23
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
United States
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000 t K
2O
Production, Imports and Consumption (000 t K2O)
Production Imports ConsumptionSources: FAO, IFA
24
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Brazil
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000 t K
2O
Production, Imports and Consumption (000 t K2O)
Production Imports Consumption
Sources: FAO, IFA
25
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
India
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000 t K
2O
Imports and Consumption (000 t K2O)
Imports ConsumptionSources: FAO, IFA
26
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
http://www.potash4life.com/films/the‐power‐of‐potash/
27
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Malaysia and Indonesia
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000 t K
2O
Imports and Consumption (000 t K2O)
Imports ConsumptionSources: FAO, IFA
28
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Major Suppliers
29
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Canada
8,361
9,229
10,332 10,140
8,518
11,085 10,379
4,297
9,700
10,686
8,976
10,196 10,818
11,350
8,455 8,515
9,648 9,684
8,333
10,591 10,121
4,176
9,443
10,404
8,606
9,829 10,602
10,967
‐
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
000 t K
2O
Production and Exports (000 t K2O)
Production ExportsSources: NRCan
30
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Forecast Methodology:Potential production is
based on average of the actual operating rates in
the last five years.
31
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Canada - Supply Outlook
17,633 19,000
22,003 22,558 22,558 22,558 22,558
10,818 11,350
5,155
12,688 13,847
17,074 17,505 17,505 17,505 17,505
11,638 12,540
14,522 14,888 14,888 14,888 14,888
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
000 t K
2O
Capacity and Production Potential (000 t K2O)
Capacity Actual Production Capability Production Potential
65%
Sources: NRCan
32
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Russia
4,432 4,653
5,599
6,266 5,724
6,373 5,935
3,691
6,128 6,526
5,460 6,000
7,260 6,840
3,227 3,732
4,570
5,325 4,989
5,403 5,159
2,643
5,021 5,460
4,382 4,815
6,221
5,493
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000 t K
2O
Production and Exports (000 t K2O)
Production Exports
Sources: IFA, NRCan
33
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Russia - Supply Outlook
7,470
6,125 6,665
9,810 9,810 9,510 9,510
7,260
6,125 6,000
8,829 8,829 8,559 8,559
‐
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
000 t K
2O
Capacity and Production Potential (000 t K2O)
Capacity Actual Production Production Potential
90%
Sources: NRCan
34
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Belarus
37814 229
4 6124 928
4 6054 972 4 968
2 485
5 223 5 306
4 774
4 179
6 202 6 297
32833 735
4 143 4 121 3 9634 391
3 936
1 788
4 137
4 719
3 6083 418
5 685 5 513
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000 t K
2O
Production and Exports (000 t K2O)
Production ExportsSources: IFA, NRCan
35
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Belarus - Supply Outlook
7,600 7,620 7,680 7,740 7,800
8,800 8,800
6,202 6,297 6,374 6,424 6,474
7,304 7,304
‐
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
000 t K
2O
Capacity and Production Potential (000 t K2O)
Capacity Actual Production Production Potential
83%
Sources: NRCan
36
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
ICL
1,918 1,958 2,138 2,224 2,123 2,146 2,134
2,466 2,551 2,556
2,962 3,094 3,086
2,517
1,752 1,872 1,897 1,844
1,346
2,052 1,821
1,537
3,160
2,812 2,734
2,313
2,643
2,248
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000 t K
2O
Production and Exports (000 t K2O)
Production ExportsSources: IFA, NRCan
37
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
ICL - Supply Outlook
3,829 3,840 3,851 3,862 3,884 3,884 3,884
3,086
2,518
2,850 2,858 2,874 2,874 2,874
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
000 t K
2O
Capacity and Production Potential (000 t K2O)
Capacity Actual Production Production Potential
74%
Sources: NRCan
38
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Germany
3,626 3,565 3,626 3,665 3,616 3,619
3,285
1,789
2,962 3,106 3,056 2,968 3,053 3,055
2,868 2,981 3,025 2,980 3,015 3,033
2,523
1,585
2,443 2,502 2,730 2,784 2,642 2,715
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000 t K
2O
Production and Exports (000 t K2O)
Production K2O ExportsSources: IFA, NRCan
39
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Germany - Supply Outlook
4,250 4,250
3,650 3,650 3,650 3,650 3,650
3,053 3,055
2,628 2,628 2,628 2,628 2,628
‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
000 t K
2O
Capacity and Production Potential (000 t K2O)
Capacity Actual Production Production Potential
72%
Sources: NRCan
40
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Summary
Demand is projected to grow at a slow pace of 2.3% per year between 2016 and 2020
Supply growth is projected to increase at 2.5% per year for the same period
Capacity is projected to grow at 4.5% per year between 2016 and 2020
Global operating rate is forecast to be lower than 80% per year between 2016 and 2020 (86% in 2010-15)
Oversupply is projected to follow the historical trend
Bottom line is both demand and supply will grow, but just at slower pace
41
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016
Contact
Kevin StoneSenior AdvisorMineral and Metal SectorNatural Resources CanadaTelephone: +1 343-292-8732Email: [email protected]