1_February Politics Update

8/9/2019 1_February Politics Update

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/1february-politics-update 1/126

February Politics Update



Iran Sanctions



Topshelf



1NC

Sanctions on Iran are coming. Obama is eeping!emocrats in line" but it#s on the brin.

$ong" 1%&' [Kristina, 1/29/15, political correspondent for the Hill, “IranSanctions Bill Passes Senate Panel,” http://thehillco!/polic"/defense/2#11#$%iran%sanctions%&ill%passes%senate%panel'(e!&ers of the Senate Ban)in* +o!!ittee on h-rsda" passed a &ill that.o-ld i!pose sanctions on Iran if a co!prehensie a*ree!ent to roll &ac) itsn-clear pro*ra! is not reached &" 0-ne #$ he &ill , co%a-thored &" Sens(ar) Kir) %Ill3 and o&ert (enende4 %603, passed in the co!!ittee &"an 17%8 ote ll 12 ep-&licans on the co!!ittee oted for the &ill, as didsi e!ocrats he e!ocrats that oted for the &ill incl-ded Sens(enende4, +h-c) Sch-!er %6;3, 0on ester %(ont3, (ar) <arner %=a3 Heidi Heit)a!p %63, and 0oe onnell" %Ind3 Sch-!er called the&ill >a *ood step for.ard> >If the" don?t co!e to a to-*h stron*

a*ree!entthere .ill &e f-rther sanctions and f-rther actions,> he saide!ocrats .ho oted a*ainst incl-ded Sens Sherrod Bro.n %@hio3, theco!!itteeAs ran)in* !e!&er, 0ac) eed %I3, 0e (er)le" %@re3, andCli4a&eth <arren %(ass3 he &ill, .hich is softer than one proposed last"ear &" Kir) and (enende4, .o-ld allo. the president to .aie sanctionsindeDnitel" for #$ da"s at a ti!e East "earAs &ill *arnered 1F e!ocratic co%sponsors, &-t e!ocratic s-pport for the c-rrent &ill .as not clear afterPresident @&a!a threatened d-rin* his State of the Gnion address to eto the&ill he ad!inistration ar*-es an" sanctions le*islation passed &efore 0-ne#$ .o-ld derail the tal)s &" e!po.erin* hardliners in Iran .ho oppose adeal, and &rea) the cohesion a!on* ne*otiators fro! the GS and its allies(enende4, ho.eer, )ept to*ether a coalition of 1$ e!ocrats .ho s-pport

the &ill , pro!isin* the <hite Ho-se not to s-pport a ote on the &ill &efore(arch 28, &" .hen ne*otiators a*reed to reach a fra!e.or) a*ree!ent SenBo& +or)er %enn3 said that pro!ise .o-ld eectiel" dela" a ote on theSenate oor of the ote -ntil then >ll of -s -nderstand it?s not *oin* to &eoted on &efore (arch 28,> he said Bro.n -r*ed la.!a)ers to .ait -ntil 0-ne#$ the ne*otiatorsA deadline for an a*ree!ent >+on*ress sho-ld hae thecollectie patience to .ait -ntil the end of 0-ne to see .hether o-rne*otiators can resole the n-clear iss-e .ith Iran thro-*h diplo!ac",>Bro.n said >@nce that is deter!ined, +on*ress and the president .ill-n-estiona&l" Join hands in appl"in* *reater press-re,> he added hepassa*e of the &ill in co!!ittee, ho.eer, is a si*n that e!ocrats arer-nnin* o-t of patience <ith 58 ep-&licans in the Senate, e!ocratic

s-pport of the &ill is necessar" to reach a eto%proof !aJorit" of F otes

((Insert )in *ere++

Sanctions lead to Iranian nues,ae-" 1%& [li, 1/27/15, International +risis Lro-pAs senior Iran anal"st,“<h" 6e. Iran Sanctions Bid Has Split <ashin*ton,”



http://a!ericaalJa4eeraco!/articles/2$15/1/27/.h"%ne.%iran%sanctions%&id%has%split%.ashin*tonht!l'6e. sanctions i!posed &" <ashin*ton at this sta*e .ill &e sei4ed -pon &" as-&stantial faction of the Iranian leadership that !istr-sts <estern intentionsand opposes an" concessions on the n-clear iss-e If s-ch !eas-res arepassed oer the o&Jections of the <hite Ho-se, the" .ill eacer&ate Iranian

do-&ts in @&a!aAs a&ilit" to delier on sanctions relief that .o-ld &e part of aDnal n-clear deal nd J-st as &ac)ers of ne. sanctions !eas-res sa" their*oal is to &oost GS leera*e in tal)s .ith Iran, !an" in ehran &eliee thatepandin* its n-clear .or) creates leera*e for Iran In a prospectieretaliator" !oe, 2$5 !e!&ers of IranAs parlia!ent are preparin* le*islationthat .o-ld a-thori4e the *oern!ent to dra!aticall" ratchet -p -rani-!%enrich!ent leels in the eent of ne. GS sanctions <hile so!e !e!&ers of +on*ress clearl" see) to sc-ttle diplo!ac" .ith Iran, others desire aco!pro!ise, &eliein* that the c-rrent tal)s are the &est M and !a"&e lastM chance to peacef-ll" resole a cr-cial national sec-rit" iss-e B-t the".o-ld li)e to see a *ood deal ltho-*h (enende4 has postponed hissanctions p-sh -ntil after the (arch 28 deadline, .hat the <hite Ho-se

considers a &ad idea in 0an-ar" .ill li)el" still &e a &ad idea in (arch Sensianne Neinstein, %+alif, and +hris (-rph", %+onn, hae proposed that+on*ress si*nal its intention .itho-t pre%e!ptiel" passin* ne. sanctions@thers s-**est .or)in* .ith the <hite Ho-se on le*islation that co-ld &eintrod-ced if tal)s fail to reach an a*ree!ent &" 0-l" 1 @ne lesson fro! theIran sanctions iss-e is ho. the ri*idit" of con*ressional sanctions hasenc-!&ered GS ne*otiators he"Are far easier to i!pose than lift, .hich canhinder diplo!ac" Lien the eectieness of Dnancial sanctions, so!e haear*-ed that +on*ress co-ld !a)e sanctions a s!arter and !ore responsie.eapon &" increasin*l" dele*atin* to the reas-r" epart!ent the a-thorit"to le", ease and M !ost i!portant M repeal sanctions B-t no s-ch chan*esare li)el" &e enacted in ti!e to ease the challen*es posed &" co!&inin*sanctions and diplo!ac" .ith Iran

Iran proliferation ensnares Israel/Iran into nuclear 0arthrough proies2obb 1& +harles, B fro! the Gniersit" of <isconsinO(adison, 0 at the Gniersit" of =ir*inia Ea.

School, +harles <ald, (aster of Political Science de*ree in international relations, ro" State Gniersit",Bipartisan Polic" +enter Board (e!&er “he Price of Inaction: nal"sis of Cner*" and Ccono!ic Cects of a6-clear Iran,” @cto&er 1$th, 2$12, http://&ipartisanpolic"or*/sites/defa-lt/Dles/PriceofInactionpdf 3

n-clear Iran .o-ldi!!ediatel"enco-nter another n-clear stateMeen if an -ndeclared oneMin the re*ion:

Israel +o!pared .ith the relatie sta&ilit" of the +old <ar, an initial stale!ate &et.een Israel and Iran .o-ld &e hi*hl" precario-s at &est

and .o-ld also threaten the entiret" of L-lf eports, altho-*h for a !ore li!ited d-ration <ere Iran to &eco!e n-clear, the

fre-enc" of crises and proy con3icts &et.een Iran and Israel .o-ld li)el" increase, as .o-ldthepro&a&ilit" of s-chconfrontations spiraling into a nuclear echange , .ith

horrendo-s h-!anitarian conse-ences here co-ld &e an Israeli%Iranian n-clear echan*e through miscalc -lation

and/or !isco!!-nication here co-ld also &e a calc-lated n-clear echan*e, as the Israeli and Iranian sides .o-ld each hae incenties tostri)e the other Drst ehran .o-ld li)el" hae the a&ilit" to prod-ce onl" a s!all handf-l of .eapons, .hereas Israel is alread" esti!ated topossess !ore than 1$$ deices, incl-din* ther!on-clear .arheads far &e"ond the destr-ctie po.er of an" Iranian Dssion .eapon Gnder

s-ch circ-!stances, IranAs -lnera&ilit" to a &olt%fro!%the%&l-eIsraeli n-clearstri)e.o-ldact-all"increase its incentie to la-nch its o.n n-clear attac) , lest its arsenal &e

o&literatedIsraelAs s!allterritorialsi4e red-ces the s-ria&ilit" of its second%stri)e capa&ilit" and,

http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/PriceofInaction.pdf

http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/PriceofInaction.pdf



!ore i!portantl", the s-ria&ilit" of the co-ntr" itself, despite its astl" lar*er and !ore adanced arsenal h-s, Israeli leaders!i*ht feel the need to act preentatiel" to eli!inate the Iranian arsenal &efore it can &e -sed a*ainst the!, J-st as

!erican !ilitar" planners conte!plated ta)in* o-t the ed*lin* Soiet arsenal earl" in the +old <ar, ecept that as a !-ch s!aller co-ntr"Israel has far less roo! for !ane-er i



&NC O,2epublicans 0ant sanctions on Iran" and a lot of ha0ish!emocrats are 0illing to bac them. Only Obama iseeping the more moderate !emocrats in line. The plan

pushes the fe0 4otes needed o4er the edge to create a4eto/proof ma5ority. Sanctions derail negotiations 0ithIran as hardliners in Tehran see them as an ecuse to notgi4e in. That leads to increased nuclear ambitions in Iran"0hich in turn creates Iranian proliferation. The impact isetinction.

Out0eighs and turns the case61/ Nuclear 0ar through Iranian proliferation is the mostliely scenario for nuclear con3ict. 2obb indicates that

nuclear ambitions from Iran pro4oe Israel into a series of proy con3icts that are the most liely scenario formiscalculation. 2obb also indicates that this P72C7I,7!threat by the Iranians 0ould aggra4ate Israel to the pointthat" due to their reduced second/strie capacity" they areforced to act pre/empti4ely.



&NC U8 $all

Obama has gained in3uence o4er his party o4er Iransanctions" but he is struggling to maintain control

$elsh 1%&' [eresa, 1/29/15, forei*n aairs reporter for GS 6e.s, “Senate Ban)in* +o!!itteedances Iran Sanctions Bill,” http://...-sne.sco!/ne.s/articles/2$15/$1/29/senate%&an)in*%co!!ittee%adances%iran%sanctions%&ill'

he Senate Ban)in* +o!!ittee adanced a &ill h-rsda" that .o-ld i!poseadditional sanctions on Iran if no n-clear a*ree!ent is reached &" the end of

0-ne, &-t its fate on the Senate oor is epected to depend on the pro*ress of on*oin* ne*otiations he ote .as 17%8 to send the &ill to the Senate oor,.ith e!ocrats representin* all fo-r in opposition he &ill, oered &"ep-&lican Sen (ar) Kir) of Illinois and e!ocratic Sen o&ert (enende4 of 6e. 0erse", has stron* &ipartisan s-pport in the co!!ittee , .here sie!ocrats Joined all 12 ep-&licans in approin* the !eas-re (enende4oted in faor of his o.n &ill &-t repeated his opposition to !oin* iti!!ediatel" to the Senate oor “I .ant to reiterate !" position alon* .ith

other e!ocrats that hae Joined .ith !e,” (enende4 said, “I hae nointention of !oin* for.ard and s-pportin* it on the oor if it is &ro-*ht&efore the (arch 28 deadline to -nderstand .hether an a*ree!ent ispossi&le and .hat that a*ree!ent .o-ld loo) li)e” (enende4 and nine othersenators .rote a letter to President Barac) @&a!a on -esda" statin* that ,.hile the" are concerned a&o-t the s-ccess of ne*otiations, the" .ill not oteon the &ill on the oor &efore the ne*otiatin* deadline P-ttin* the &ra)es onthe le*islation *ae a political ictor" to the President Barac) @&a!a, .hosee!ocratic Part" has not -nited &ehind hi! in s-pport of contin-ed tal)s

2epublicans don#t yet ha4e enough 4otes for a 4eto/proofma5ority" but they are close9engerle" 1%&' [Patricia, 1/29/15, +on*ressional +orrespondent fore-ters, “GS Senate panel adances Iran sanctions &ill,”http://...re-tersco!/article/2$15/$1/29/-s%iran%n-clear%con*ress%idGSKB6$E22$62$15$129'e-ters3 % he GS Senate Ban)in* +o!!ittee oted 17%8 on h-rsda" toadance a &ill that .o-ld to-*hen sanctions on Iran if internationalne*otiators fail to reach an a*ree!ent on ehran?s n-clear pro*ra! &" theend of 0-ne Ho.eer, the &ill is not epected to co!e -p for a ote in the f-llSenate -ntil at least (arch 28 en e!ocrats , incl-din* the !eas-re?s co%a-thor, Senator o&ert (enende4, anno-nced an a*ree!ent earlier this .ee)to hold o for t.o !onths to allo. ti!e to reach a diplo!atic sol-tion

ep-&licans .o-ld need those otes to pass the &ill, and een !ore otes tooerride a eto threatened &" e!ocratic President Barac) @&a!a, .ho hascalled the !eas-re a threat to the contin-in* n-clear tal)s .ith Iran



Sanctions Nues

Sanctions 0ill encourage Iran to restart its Nuclear:cti4ities.

2F7 &/;/1< adio Nree C-rope and adio Ei&ert"3NC/E Jo-rnalists report the ne.s in 21 co-ntries.here a free press is &anned &" the *oern!ent or not f-ll" esta&lished <e proide .hat !an" peoplecannot *et locall": -ncensored ne.s, responsi&le disc-ssion, and open de&ate, “Iran rafts Ea. oes-!e 6-clear ctiities In esponse o Sanctions” http://...rferlor*/content/iran%n-clear%-nited%states%draft%la.%sanctions/2727881ht!l3

Iran#s parliament 4oted on February ; to speed up discussions of amotion that ass the go4ernment to resume all its nuclear acti4itiesif fresh sanctions are passed by the United States. Out of &=<la0maers present" 1>; 4oted in fa4or of gi4ing the motion anemergency status" Iranian ne0s agencies reported. It .asnAt clear fro! the

reports .hen the disc-ssions .o-ld res-!e he draft &ill sa"s that in the eent of fresh GS sanctions,Iran is o&li*ed to i!!ediatel" res-!e all n-clear actiities that hae &een fro4en in echan*e of sanctionsrelief -nder the Lenea interi! n-clear deal ehran reached .ith .orld po.ers in 2$1# It sa"s that Iransho-ld actiate its -rani-! enrich!ent centers “.itho-t an" restrictions on the t"pe and n-!&er ofcentrif-*es and the a!o-nt of enriched -rani-!” -nder the reat" on the 6onproliferation of 6-clear

<eapons 6P3 It also sa"s that Iran .o-ld accelerate constr-ction and operation of its controersial ra)hea"%.ater reactor Iran and the Gnited States, Britain, +hina, Nrance, Ler!an", and -ssia arene*otiatin* for a lastin* a*ree!ent that .o-ld preent Iran fro! ac-irin* a n-clear .eapons capa&ilit"fter !issin* t.o self%i!posed deadlines last "ear, the si po.ers and Iran a*reed to see) a politicalfra!e.or) a*ree!ent &" (arch and a co!prehensie deal &" 0-ne #$ East .ee), the GS Senate Ban)in*+o!!ittee approed a draft &ill that .o-ld i!pose ne. sanctions on Iran if there is no deal &" the end of

0-ne he &ill is not epected to co!e for a ote in the f-ll Senate -ntil at least late net !onth, after a*ro-p of senators a*reed to hold o for t.o !onths to allo. ti!e for a diplo!atic sol-tion to &e reachedGS President Barac) @&a!a has .arned that he .o-ld eto an" &ill that .o-ld i!pose ne. sanctions onIran @&a!a and other ad!inistration oQcials hae .arned that ne. sanctions co-ld da!a*e the on*oin*

ne*otiations .ith Iran Iranian oQcials hae also .arned a*ainst ne. sanctions The chairman ofthe parliament?s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission":laeddin @orou5erdi" 0as Auoted as saying on February ; that Banyne0 decision by the U.S. Congress to impose sanctionsD 0hich 0ill

of course be a 4iolation of the Eene4a agreement 0ill face theIranian parliament?s serious reaction. Foreign Ginister Ha4ad 9arifsaid last 0ee that ne0 sanctions 0ould lead to a collapse of thetals.



Sanctions Fail

Sanctions are empirically unsuccessful,ae-" 1%& [li, 1/27/15, International +risis Lro-pAs senior Iran anal"st,

“<h" 6e. Iran Sanctions Bid Has Split <ashin*ton,”http://a!ericaalJa4eeraco!/articles/2$15/1/27/.h"%ne.%iran%sanctions%&id%has%split%.ashin*tonht!l'

he )e" -estion for !e!&ers of +on*ress is, <hat are ne. sanctionsdesi*ned to achieeR he standard ar*-!ent is that sanctions are theleera*e that forced Iran to the ne*otiatin* ta&le and escalatin* the!therefore &oosts <estern leera*e B-t there .ere no n-clear%relatedsanctions in force .hen the sa!e Iranian ne*otiators Drst ca!e to the ta&lefro! 2$$# to 2$$5 and oered the <est !ore attractie ter!s &ac) thenthan the" are doin* no. -nder sanctions press-re 6or is it clear ho.sanctions press-re alters Iranian &ehaior It is diQc-lt to sa" .ith an"certaint" .hether ehran .o-ld hae *one farther in adancin* its n-clear

pro*ra! in the a&sence of sanctions press-re, &-t thereAs no -estion thatthe period of escalatin* sanctions has coincided .ith stead" adances inIranAs n-clear pro*ra! he foc-s in +on*ress appears to &e on the econo!icpain inicted on Iran &" coercie diplo!ac", &-t the correlation &et.een thatpain and desired *ains is far fro! clearl" esta&lished nd those fa!iliar .iththe Isla!ic ep-&licAs political c-lt-re .arn that IranAs ne*otiators are li)el"to &e less inclined to sho. ei&ilit" .hen a !etaphorical *-n is held to theirheads, lest the" face the potentiall" fatal acc-sation &ac) ho!e ofco!pro!isin* -nder d-ress



)aundry )ist Impact

Iran sanctions cause a laundry list of impactsinternational la0" 0ar" econ Jthis card rulesK

:frasiabi" &%1 [Kaeh, 2/1/15, Ph in Political Science fro! BostonGniersit", “GS +on*ress Iran Sanctions Bill Nla.ed,”http://...presstir/etail/2$15/$2/$1/#95F$8/GS%+on*ress%Iran%sanctions%&ill%a.ed'B" all acco-nts, this &ill?s real intention is to torpedo the n-clear tal)s andth.art diplo!ac" -nder the *-ise of >&olsterin*> GS diplo!ac" at the ta&le Ithas &een -estioned &" ario-s GS editorials as a >&ad polic"> that sho-ld &eaoided %% for *ood reasons since if adopted and s-ries a <hite Ho-se eto,this &ill not onl" da!a*es the prospects for a ?.in%.in? resol-tion of the Irann-clear stando, it .ill also har! GS?s o.n interests Brie", there areseeral a.s in it that desere attention hese are: 1 he &ill iolates theter!s of the Lenea a*ree!ent: Gnder this a*ree!ent, &oth GS and C-rope

hae pled*ed to refrain fro! i!posin* ne. sanctions on Iran d-rin* theperiod of the a*ree!ent herefore, the (arch -lti!at-! *ien &" the &ill?ssponsors represents a clear ne*ation of GS?s pled*e 2 he &ill i!poses thear&itrar" de!and for the >dis!antlin*> of Iran?s -rani-! enrich!ent andhea" .ater prod-ction facilit" in ra) here is a&sol-tel" no le*al &asis forthis de!and and is contrar" to the ter!s of the Lenea a*ree!ent thatac)no.led*es Iran?s ri*ht to enrich -rani-!, al&eit -nder the a*reed%-ponscope of its >practical needs> <ith respect to the ra) reactor, &oth sideshae !ade s-&stantial pro*ress in ter!s of certain !odiDcations that .o-ldaddress the concerns a&o-t it, *ien the i!portance of the reactor for Iran?s!edical and other ciilian needs Iran has pled*ed not to set -p areprocessin* plant, .itho-t .hich it is i!possi&le to separate pl-toni-! for

.eapons p-rposes3 # he &ill as)s the president to certif" that Iran does notcond-ct an" !issile tests &e"ond the ran*e of 5$$ )ilo!eters his de!and,.ith respect to Iran?s conentional !ilitar" po.er and technolo*", is also.itho-t an" le*al fo-ndation and ar&itrar", ai!in* to dispossess Iran of ani!portant arsenal of its national defense 8 he &ill calls for to-*h penaltieson co-ntries that ref-se to s-&stantiall" red-ce their oil i!ports fro! Iran

his !eans that +hina, India, and other co-ntries that are Iran?s ener*"partners, .ill Dnd the!seles in the -n.anted sit-ation of a third part",na!el" the GS, dictatin* their ener*" policies <itho-t do-&t, this .o-ldca-se tensions &et.een GS and those co-ntries, .hich !i*ht retaliatea*ainst the GS if s-&Jected to s-ch a**ressie &-ll"in* &" their !ericantrade partners 5 he &ill sets -p ario-s scenarios for GS?s -nilateral

iolation of a Dnal a*ree!ent, incl-din* acts of terroris! a*ainst the GS &"Iran or Iran?s ?proies? s a res-lt, the &ar has &een set er" lo., e*, anattac) attri&-ted ri*htl" or .ron*l"3 to Ee&anonAs He4&ollah, .hich is closeto Iran, .o-ld s-Qce to lead the GS to declare the Dnal a*ree!ent n-ll andoid he &ill?s call for the re%i!position of Iran sanctions in the eent of a-nilateral decision &" the GS that Iran has iolated the lon* list of prohi&itedactiities !entioned in the &ill is also ar&itrar" and -n!indf-l of the li)el"proisions of the Dnal a*ree!ent, si!ilar to the interi! a*ree!ent, re*ardin*a ?Joint co!!ission? to deal .ith the iss-es of i!ple!entation In other



.ords, an" -nilateral GS decision per!itted -nder this &ill .o-ld p-t the GSat odds .ith the other nations in the >5 T1> *ro-p, ie, GS, Nrance, Britain,-ssia, +hina and Ler!an" Gnfort-natel", the ha.)ish GS politicians arela**in* &ehind the realit" and i*norant of the str-ct-ral li!its i!posed on GS-nilateralis! &" the !-ltilateral fra!e.or) F he &ill eplicitl" calls for a>GS s-pport> for Israel in case the Uionist entit" la-nches a stri)e a*ainst

Iran?s n-clear facilities his is hi*hl" irresponsi&le, and dan*ero-s, on thepart of GS la.!a)ers , .ho o-*ht to )no. &etter the i!portance of a&idin* &"international la. and G6 +harter, .hich epressl" for&ids -nproo)ed attac)sa*ainst another co-ntr" Cen if the n-clear tal)s fail, no co-ntr" has theri*ht to attac) Iran, .hich .ill &e dee!ed &" the international co!!-nit" asa conde!na&le trans*ression of international la. Cen the GS?s o.nintelli*ence co!!-nit" has conDr!ed that Iran?s n-clear pro*ra! ispeacef-l, not to !ention repeated s-ch conDr!ations &" the Internationalto!ic Cner*" *enc" IC3, as a res-lt of .hich an ille*al and -nproo)edattac) on Iran .o-ld, lo*icall" spea)in*, tri**er G6 Sec-rit" +o-ncilconde!nation -nder +hapter =II, pertainin* to international peace andsec-rit" In the eent that the GS .o-ld sc-ttle action at the Sec-rit"

+o-ncil, s-ch a !oe .o-ld onl" isolate the GS in the internationalco!!-nit" and proJect a ?ro*-e? i!a*e that .o-ld &e contrar" to GS?s o.nnational interests his is not to !ention Iran?s retaliation a*ainst an" s-chattac)s and the profo-nd -n.anted re*ional and *lo&al i!plications s-ch ason .orld econo!"3 tri**ered in a .ar scenario %% that has &een to"ed .ith inthe GS +on*ress thro-*h this proposed le*islation



Iranian Nues 7tinction

Israeli stries escalate/ success irrele4antEoldberg L1= 0ere" Lold&er*, 6ational correspondent for the tlantic, “he Point of 6o et-rn,”

http://...theatlanticco!/!a*a4ine/archie/2$1$/$9/the%point%of%no%ret-rn/717/, Septe!&er 2$1$3

<hen the Israelis &e*in to &o!& the -rani-!%enrich!ent facilit" at 6atan4, the for!erl" secret enrich!ent site at Vo!, the n-clear%researchcenter at Csfahan, and possi&l" een the B-shehr reactor, alon* .ith the other !ain sites of the Iranian n-clear pro*ra!, a short .hile after

the" depart en !asse fro! their &ases across IsraelM regardless of 0hether they succeed in

destro"in* IranAs centrif-*es and .arhead and !issile plants, or .hether the" fail !isera&l" to een !a)e a dent in IranAs n-clear pro*ra!M

the"stand a *ood chance of chan*in* the (iddle Cast foreer of spar in* lethal reprisals , and een a

full/blo0n regional 0ar that co-ld lead to the deaths of tho-sands of Israelis and Iranians, and possi&l" ra&s

and !ericans as .ell of creating a crisis for Barac) @&a!a that .ill d0arf f*hanistanin

si*niDcance and co!pleit" of rupturing relations &et.een 0er-sale! and <ashin*ton, .hich is IsraelAs onl"

!eanin*f-l all" of inadertentl" solidif"in* the so!e.hat ten-o-s r-le of the !-llahs in ehran of causing the price

of oil to spie to catacl"s!ic hi*hs, la-nchin* the .orld econo!" into a period of t-r&-lence not eperienced since the

a-t-!n of 2$$7, or possi&l" since the oil shoc) of 19F# of placin* co!!-nities across the 0e.ish diaspora in !ortal dan*er, &" !a)in* the!tar*ets of Iranian%sponsored terror attac)s, as the" hae &een in the past, in a li!ited tho-*h alread" lethal .a" and of acceleratin* IsraelAsconersion fro! a once%ad!ired ref-*e for a persec-ted people into a leper a!on* nations

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/09/the-point-of-no-return/8186/

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/09/the-point-of-no-return/8186/



MM: :ns0ersMM



UniAueness O4er0helms the )in

!emocrats are united behind Obama against sanctions2euters" &%1 [2/1/15, ><h" ne. sanctions a*ainst Iran are loo)in* less

li)el"> http://&lo*sre-tersco!/*reat%de&ate/2$15/$2/$1/.h"%ne.%sanctions%a*ainst%iran%are%loo)in*%less%li)el"/' fe. .ee)s a*o, ne. sanctions on Iran .ere on the fast trac) in the ne.ep-&lican Senate he !eas-re .o-ld, at a !ini!-!, -nder!ine then-clear tal)s, at !ost ca-se their collapse @n paper, @&a!a .as heail"o-t*-nned Historicall", no piece of le*islation passes as easil" in +on*ressas an Iran sanctions &ill he ep-&lican%controlled +on*ress has no ti!e orpatience for either @&a!a or his chats .ith Iranian n-clear ne*otiators, sosa&ota*in* the tal)s and depriin* the president of a !-ch needed forei*npolic" s-ccess .as a no%&rainer nd !indf-l of Israeli press-re in faor ofsanctions, !an" e!ocratic la.!a)ers .o-ld li)el" a&andon the presidentand side .ith Israeli Pri!e (inister BenJa!in 6etan"ah- instead, it .as

predictedW B-t @&a!a stood Dr! ather than see) a co!pro!ise .ith theSenate, he threatened a eto and .arned the! a&o-t the conse-ences ofsa&ota*in* the tal)s “ he !erican people epect -s to onl" *o to .ar as a last resort, and I

intend to sta" tr-e to that .isdo!,” he saidW The threat 0ored. :s of today" onlyt0o !emocratic senators ha4e co/sponsored the ne0 sanctions bill.Unless sanctions supporters manage to get at least 1 !emocrats tocommit to the measure" they cannot o4erride Obama#s 4eto and 0illonly embarrass themsel4es trying. Perhaps more importantly"senators 0ho supported a similar measure last year and 0ho ha4ehistorically been 4ery close to the :merican Israel Public :airsCommittee#s position on Iran " such as Qirsten Eillibrand J!/NRK andCory @ooer J!/NHK" ha4e refrained from sponsoring the bill. The

president strongly belie4es it 0ould gra4ely harm negotiations" andtherefore" I am 0illing to gi4e him more time before supporting thisbill" Eillibrand told CNNW Cen !ore shoc)in*, perhaps, .as Hillar" +lintonAs f-ll &ac)in* of

@&a!a in this contest In the !idst of preparations for her pres-!ed 2$1 presidential r-n, Hillar" ca!eo-t a*ainst &oth IP+ and 6etan"ah- and called the sanctions &ill “a er" serio-s strate*ic error”WGndo-&tedl", the iss-e too) on an een *reater partisan di!ension .hen Ho-se Spea)er 0ohn Boehnersecretl" inited 6etan"ah- to address con*ress on this !atter, .hich in t-rn added press-re on +linton toclose ran)s .ith @&a!a B-t for +linton to co!e o-t and so stron*l" &ac) @&a!a O at a ti!e .hen she hasso-*ht to distance herself fro! his forei*n polic" O cannot &e eplained solel" &" partisan solidarit"Wather, @&a!a has s-cceeded in chan*in* the -nderl"in* politics of the !atter he de&ate oer Iransanctions is no lon*er a&o-t Iran, &-t a&o-t .ar .ith Iran iplo!ac" .ith Iran is the &est .a" of aoidin*&oth a n-clear Iran, and &o!&in* Iran n" !eas-re that -nder!ines diplo!ac", s-ch as ne. sanctions,a-to!aticall" enhances the ris) of .arW Passin* sanctions on Iran -sed to &e the safest political !oe in+on*ress B-t toda", i!posin* sanctions !eans s-pportin* .ar, .hich is a !oe that carries a tre!endo-spolitical cost So hi*h that Hillar" +linton chose to co!e o-t a*ainst IP+ and 6etan"ah- insteadW his is

not to s-**est that @&a!a has ta)en control oer the process of liftin* sanctions hat authorityremains in the hands of Congress. @ut 0hat the recent 0rangling in

Congress sho0s is that Obama can redene 0hat is politicallyfeasible and unfeasible. T0o years ago" anyone 0ho suggested thatCongress 0ould fail to impose ne0 sanctions on Iran 0ould be lucynot to be committed to a mental institution. Those ad4ocatingdiplomacy o4er sanctions 0ere in the political margins. Today"diplomacy is the policy" 0hile sanctions proponents are consideredetremists.



No chance of a 4eto proof ma5orityGenende- steppedbac" the EOP is di4ided" Obama#s popularity is up" anddems are rallying

Pianin and Ear4er 1%&' [1%29%2$15, Cric Pianin and o& Larer, <ashin*ton Cditor and+ B-rea- +hief Cric Pianin is a eteran Jo-rnalist .ho has coered the federal *oern!ent,con*ressional &-d*et and ta iss-es, and national politics He spent oer 25 "ears at he <ashin*ton Post,>@&a!aAs =eto Pen (i*htier han L@P S.ords>, Niscal i!es,http://...theDscalti!esco!/2$15/$1/29/@&a!as%=eto%Pen%(i*htier%L@P%S.ords'

There 0as a lot of bra4e tal among Senate !emocrats as 0ell as2epublicans of slapping ne0 economic sanctions on Iran een &efore the

@&a!a ad!inistration co!pleted its latest ro-nd of ne*otiations on restrainin* ehranAs n-clear pro*ra! B-t that0as before President Obama rene0ed his threat to 4eto thelegislation during his State of the Union address last .ee) “here are no *-arantees

ne*otiations .ill s-cceed, and I )eep all options on the ta&le to preent a n-clear Iran,” @&a!a said in the speech “B-tne. sanctions passed &" this +on*ress, at this !o!ent in ti!e, .ill all &-t *-arantee that diplo!ac" fails O alienatin*!erica fro! its allies and ens-rin* that Iran starts -p its n-clear pro*ra! a*ain” @n -esda", Sen o&ert

Genende- 603, the raning !emocrat on the Senate Foreign 2elations

Committee" and nine other in3uential !emocrats baced do0n O tellin*

@&a!a the" .o-ld hold o -ntil after a late%(arch deadline for the GS and Iran to co!plete .or) on the a*ree!ent+on*ressional leaders li)e Senate Norei*n elations +o!!ittee +hair Bo& +or)er of ennessee !a" eent-all" co!e &ac)

.ith to-*h sanctions le*islation if @&a!aAs ne*otiatin* tea! falls short B-t for no., Obama has scored atactical 4ictory that buys State !epartment negotiators time.Obama#s 4eto strategy has been paying other di4idends in shapingthe legislati4e agenda in the earl" *oin* of the 118th +on*ress, !-ch to the cha*rin of !an"

conseraties 7mboldened by his rising appro4al rating and di4isions0ithin the EOP" the president 0ho 4etoed only t0o minor bills upuntil no0 is threatening to 4eto at least 4e others. Ho-se ep-&licans

threatened to -se the ept of Ho!eland Sec-rit" ann-al spendin* &ill to &loc) i!ple!entation of @&a!aAs eec-tieorder protectin* nearl" De !illion ille*al i!!i*rants fro! deportation he" still !a" !oe ahead on that plan to placatean*r" conseraties and ea Part" !e!&ers B-t after @&a!aAs eto threat, Spea)er 0ohn Boehner %@H3 and other L@P!e!&ers are eplorin* another .a" to ta)e the president to co-rt a*ain to challen*e the constit-tionalit" of his eec-tie

action nd prospects for passa*e of le*islation to &"pass @&a!a and force the approal of the Ke"stone E PipelineproJect are fadin* fast: he Ho-se%passed le*islation has &een !ired in a t.o%.ee) de&ate on the Senate oor Senate(aJorit" Eeader (itch (c+onnell %K;3 !a" eent-all" prod-ce a &ill that co-ld oerco!e a presidential eto in theSenate, so!e o&serers sa" B-t the le*islation has &een loaded .ith so !an" a!end!ents to placate ep-&lican ande!ocratic senators that Boehner !a" hae tro-&le achiein* Dnal passa*e of the &ill on the Ho-se oor O !-ch lessa!assin* the 29$ otes heAd need to oerride a eto ides to ep-&lican la.!a)ers ta)e stron* eception to an"s-**estion @&a!a is hain* his .a" .ith his eto threat “<e are considerin* liti*ation in addition to le*islatie optionsli)e the HS &ill O not in place of the!,” said (ichael Steel, a spo)es!an for Boehner “I also donAt a*ree .ith "o-rassess!ent on the Ke"stone pipeline or Iran” on Ste.art, a (c+onnell spo)es!an, noted, “<e had the sa!e n-!&er ofs-pporters/co%sponsors on Ke"stone &efore the eto threat as after (enende4 has ipped on Iran nd the &attle lines on

i!!i*ration .ere dra.n lon* a*o” ;et others see L@P reaction to @&a!aAs eto threats -ite dierentl" “Thepresident is doing eactly 0hat you#d epect him to do,” said an Holler,

co!!-nications director for Herita*e ction, an in-ential conseratie lo&&"in* *ro-p associated .ith the Herita*eNo-ndation >HeAs .aitin* for ep-&licans to step -p and challen*e hi! on so!ethin* B-t if "o- loo) at the past fe."ears, "o- are hard pressed to Dnd a ti!e .hen the ep-&lican Part" !ade a hard challen*e to .hat the president is

doin*” Holler added, “There is a mystiAue around the presidency ... that if he

dra0s a line in the sand there is no 0ay of o4ercoming it. In !an" .a"s,

Congress has played into this notion that the eecuti4e branch is thesuperior branch" not a coe-al &ranch If Senate 2epublicans .ere to dra. a line in the sand

ri*ht no., the president .o-ld la-*h at the!, &eca-se the" ha4en#t sho0n a 0illingness todefend their turf ” (oreoer, .ith !an" insiders .arnin* of the dan*ers of the Ho-se L@P ta!perin* .ith

HSAs operatin* &-d*et a!id *lo&al terrorist threats, “:ll the signs point to them not being0illing to tae on this ght right no0"” Holler said 0ohn Uo*&", a pro!inent pollster and

political anal"st, said the president#s rising appro4al rating V approaching <=percent right no0 V has gi4en him added le4erage “I canAt sa" it an" &etter than a



!illennial pop sin*er na!ed (e*han rainor,” said Uo*&" “XItAs all a&o-t the &aseA The president#snumbers are the only ones going up and it#s because he is gettingincreased support from liberals 0ho see he is acting decisi4ely andliberated by not ha4ing to run again.” <illia! Lalston, a for!er polic" adiser to President Bill

+linton, said, “!emocrats" e4en dissenting !emocrats" are less eager toconfront the president of their o0n party than the 2epublicans are”

“Beca-se an" !eanin*f-l confrontation &et.een +on*ress and the president has to inole a eto oerride, if e!ocrats

.ho !a" &e dissentin* are -n.illin* to Join the opposition at this point, then the president can bloc !ost things he doesn#t 0ant from happening.



Sanctions Eood

Sanctions are ey to eecti4e negotiationsQeinon" 1%&W [Her&, 1/2/15, B in Political Science fro! the Gniersit" of

+olorado, Bo-lder, “6-clear eal <ill 6ot Be eached -e to Iran?sIntransi*ence, Senior iplo!atic @Qcial Sa"s,” http://...Jpostco!/(iddle%Cast/6-clear%deal%.ill%not%&e%reached%d-e%to%Irans%intransi*ence%senior%diplo!atic%oQcial%sa"s%#79$2F'It is -nli)el" the .orld po.ers and Iran .ill reach a n-clear a*ree!ent &eforethe end of (arch, a senior diplo!atic oQcial said (onda", addin* that at thispoint !-ch is dependent on the “diQc-lt decision” the Iranians .ill hae to!a)e ccordin* to the oQcial, si*niDcant dierences re!ain &et.een Iranand the P5T1, and it is diQc-lt to see ho. it .ill &e possi&le to oerco!e theIranian de!and for a re!oal of all the sanctions He said that no one cansa" .ith certaint" .hether an a*ree!ent .ill &e si*ned in the near f-t-re“ here has still not &een a deep Iranian chan*e re*ardin* the concessions

that can &rin* the! to an a*ree!ent,” the oQcial said “<e are not seein* astrate*ic decision re*ardin* concessions &" [S-pre!e Eeader "atollah li'Kha!enei,” the oQcial said he oQcial said that a crisis in the tal)s co-lddeDnitel" “sharpen the dile!!a for the Iranians and help *et to ana*ree!ent -nder &etter conditions” East .ee) (ossad head a!ir Pardo tolda *ro-p of isitin* senators led &" 0ohn (c+ain that ratchetin* -p sanctionson Iran .o-ld &e tanta!o-nt to “thro.in* a *renade” into a roo! in thesense that it co-ld create “a te!porar" crisis in the ne*otiations at the end of .hich tal)s .o-ld res-!e -nder i!proed conditions” ccordin* to thesenior diplo!atic oQcial, a co!&ination of diplo!atic press-re and econo!icleera*e increases the chances for &etter res-lts in the ne*otiations” He saidthat placin* press-re on Iran does not *-arantee that an a*ree!ent .ill &e

reached, &-t the lac) of press-re .ill ens-re that there .o-ld not &e ana*ree!ent

Sanctions are ey to good faith tals 0ith Iran:IP:C" 11%&< [he !erican Israel P-&lic airs +o!!ittee, 11/25/18, “Increase the Press-re to

Lie 6e*otiations a +hance,” http://iraninfoc-saipacor*/learn/increase%the%press-re%to%*ie%ne*otiations%a%chance/'

fter !ore than a "ear of intensie diplo!ac" and li!ited sanctions relief, theti!e has co!e to stren*then sanctions on Iran espite si*niDcantconcessions &" the P5T1 O .hich .o-ld hae allo.ed Iran to !aintain !ostof its n-clear infrastr-ct-re O ehran still ref-ses to ta)e the steps needed toreach a *ood deal Increased press-re oers the &est chance to pers-ade

ehran to a&andon its -est for a n-clear .eapons capa&ilit" he @&a!ad!inistration sho-ld to-*hen sanctions enforce!ent , and +on*ress sho-ld-ic)l" ta)e -p ne. &ipartisan sanctions le*islation (ore press-re is neededto increase the leera*e on Iran Iran ca!e to the ne*otiations in lar*e

!eas-re &eca-se GS%led sanctions .ere &e*innin* to cripple the Iranianecono!" co!&ination of sanctions relief and i!proed Iranian econo!ic!ana*e!ent red-ced the press-re on ehran to ne*otiate in *ood faith andaccept a *ood deal o-*her enforce!ent of eistin* sanctions ,



acco!panied &" prospectie ne. &ipartisan sanctions, .ill force Iran toconfront a decision &et.een co!pro!ise and econo!ic pain <itho-t ne.

press-re, Iran is -nli)el" to !odif" its co-rse It .ill contin-e its eorts tocirc-!ent sanctions, diide the international coalition and contin-eadancin* its n-clear pro*ra!



Sanctions Ine4itable

Sanctions 0ill pass no0broad bipartisan support@ennett 1/&' 0ohn , Senior +on*ressional eporter, efense i!es Defense

Times http://...defensene.sco!/stor"/defense/polic"%&-d*et/con*ress/2$15/$1/29/iran%sanctions%

n-clear%.eapons%o&a!a/225289$#/'

Senate co!!ittee on h-rsda" easily approed le*islation that .o-ldi!pose to-*her econo!ic sanctions on Iran if on*oin* tal)s a&o-t its n-clearar!s pro*ra! re!ain stalled he Ban)in* +o!!ittee, in a bipartisan 1/

4ote, approed a ne. Iran sanctions &ill crafted &" Senate Norei*n elations +o!!ittee an)in* (e!&er Sen Bo& (enende4, %60, and Sen (ar) Kir), %Ill

Senators fro! &oth panels spo)e in s-pport of the le*islation, ar*-in* the threat of ne. econo!ic penalties .ill ca-se Iranian oQcials to ta)e the on*oin* >P5T1 tal)s>!ore serio-sl" >Sanctions are .hat *ot Iran to the ta&le,> the Senate?s 6o # e!ocrat, Sen +h-c) Sch-!er of 6e. ;or), said >If the" don?t co!e to a stron* deal thatpreents a n-clear Iran, period, there .ill &e additional sanctions &" this &od"> (enende4 and other e!ocrats are p-shin* ep-&lican cha!&er leaders to p-t o a ote-ntil at least (arch 28, essentiall" *iin* Iranian ne*otiators t.o !onths to a*ree to concessions &ein* p-shed &" the Gnited States and other <estern co-ntries heSenate?s a*enda &e"ond a .ee)lon* recess that starts on Ne& 1 is -nclear Nor the latest national sec-rit" ne.s fro! +apitol Hill, *o to +on*ress<atch Senate (aJorit"Eeader Sen (itch (c+onnell, %K", has onl" said that the cha!&er .ill net ta)e -p a epart!ent of Ho!eland Sec-rit" f-ndin* !eas-re after it co!pletes .or) on aKe"stone E Pipeline &ill Senate Norei*n elations +o!!ittee +hair!an Sen Bo& +or)er, %enn, also a Ban)in* +o!!ittee !e!&er, called the !eas-re >a placeholder>

that (c+onnell co-ld call -p at an" ti!e Ha.)ish ep-&licans li)e ne. Sen o! +otton, %r), afor!er Ho-se !e!&er, sa" <ashin*ton needs to do so!ethin* as soon aspossi&le to p-t !ore press-re on ehran In fact, +otton !ade his Drst splash since !oin* across the +apitol co!ple,

sa"in*, >I .o-ld rather see these ne*otiations end> he Kir)%(enende4 &ill .o-ld >increase the c-rrent con*ressional oersi*ht of the ne*otiations and re-ire thead!inistration to for!all" s-&!it an" ne. n-clear a*ree!ent tet or etension to +on*ress .ithin De da"s> Sch-!er called that >a er" *ood chec)> on the <hiteHo-se?s deal, addin* >it !-st &e done caref-ll"> he !eas-re .o-ld *reen%li*ht ne. sanctions and reinstit-te ones .aied d-rin* the >P5T1> tal)s onl" if a 0-ne #$deadline for a deal .ith Iran passes .ith no s-ch pact he &ill, )no.n infor!all" on +apitol Hill as >Kir)%(enende4,> .o-ld install ne. sanctions on Iran, incl-din* ones to>close loopholes in eistin* petrole-! sanctions, enhance sanctions on Iran?s oil trade and Dnancial transactions, and i!pose f-rther sanctions on Iran?s senior *oern!entoQcials, fa!il" !e!&ers and other indiid-als,> accordin* to a s-!!ar" of the le*islation he panel approed, 17%8, an a!end!ent oered &" Sen Pat oo!e", %Pa,that .o-ld !a)e it the sense of the +on*ress that la.!a)ers sho-ld ote on an" potential deal the @&a!a ad!inistration stri)es .ith Iran he Kir)%(enende4 sanctions.o-ld &e i!ple!ented one &" one oer seeral !onths he co!!ittee )illed, 1$%12, an a!end!ent fro! +otton that .o-ld hae !ade the! all &indin* on 0-l" (enende4 .ants to .ait at least t.o !onths &efore the f-ll Senate otes onthe &ill B-t he stressed that if Iranian oQcials contin-e to stall, the cha!&ersho-ld ote on his &ill o hi!, if a ote is held at the ri*ht ti!e, >I &eliee it0ould ha4e broad bipartisan support.B



No !eal

Sanctions are irrele4ant another bill 0ill pass that hasthe same eect but 0on#t derail negotiations. :nd" these

trade o 0ith the original sanctions*udson" 1%&1 [0ohn, 1/12/15, senior diplo!ac" and national sec-rit" reporter for Norei*n Polic",

“+on*ressional InD*htin* +o-ld Boost <hite Ho-se in Iran al)s,”http://forei*npolic"co!/2$15/$1/21/con*ressional%inD*htin*%co-ld%&oost%.hite%ho-se%in%iran%tal)s/'

ha.)ish Iran sanctions &ill that President Barac) @&a!a threatened to etoin his State of the Gnion address no. faces an -nepected foe in +on*ress:co!petin* le*islation sponsored &" ep-&licans @n <ednesda", Senatorand Pa-l %Kent-c)"3 oered an alternatie proposal to a controersialpiece of le*islation sponsored &" Sen (ar) Kir) %Ill3 and e!ocratic Seno&ert (enende4 of 6e. 0erse" that .o-ld i!pose ne. sanctions on ehran if .orld po.ers fail to stri)e an a*ree!ent that .o-ld restrain the co-ntr"Asn-clear pro*ra! Pa-lAs proposal, .hich is still &ein* ha!!ered o-t .ith+alifornia e!ocrat Bar&ara Boer, .o-ld !andate otes in +on*ress toreinstate sanctions a*ainst Iran if it iolates an" aspects of a Dnal n-cleardeal Boer called the proposal a “!oderate” alternatie that .o-ld *iela.!a)ers the opport-nit" to re%i!pose “.aied or s-spended sanctionsa*ainst Iran if the president in cons-ltation .ith the intelli*ence co!!-nit",deter!ines that Iran has iolated an" eistin* n-clear a*ree!ent” She andher sta did not oer !ore details, sa"in* the t.o la.!a)ers .ere stillp-ttin* the “Dnishin* to-ches” on the le*islation Gnli)e the Kir)%(enende4&ill, the @&a!a ad!inistration re!ains open to the Pa-l%Boer proposal&eca-se it .o-ld not derail the sensitie ne*otiations pla"in* o-t in =ienna

hatAs a pro&le! for (enende4 and Kir), .ho .ant to -nite +on*ress &ehindtheir o.n 6-clear <eapons Nree Iran ct “I oppose the le*islation IAe seen

so far,” Boer said <ednesda" at a Norei*n elations +o!!ittee hearin* “Ia! .or)in* on le*islation .ith Senator Pa-l to send a clear, -ne-iocalsi*nal that Iran .ill &e held acco-nta&le for its actions and an" fail-re to f-lDllits co!!it!ents .ill &e !et &" s.ift action &" +on*ress” o &-ild a eto%proof !aJorit", the Kir)%(enende4 &ill needs the s-pport of at least 1#e!ocrats Lien the i!pressie &ipartisan s-pport for the sanctionsle*islation last "ear M it *arnered $%cosponsors M !an" &elieed aep-&lican%controlled +on*ress co-ld oerco!e the presidentAs etoHo.eer, a n-!&er of ha.)ish e!ocrats .ho preio-sl" s-pported s-chle*islation M incl-din* Sens Ben +ardin %(d3 and +h-c) Sch-!er %6;3M hae &e*-n to .aYe on the le*islation in recent da"s, “he ad!inistrationhas a point I thin) .e sho-ld listen to .hat the" hae to sa",” +ardin, a co%

sponsor of the (enende4%Kir) le*islation, told reporters on -esda"“Hopef-ll" .e can reach so!e a*ree!ent on .henAs the &est ti!in* for itsconsideration” prospectie &ill &" Pa-l and Boer co-ld peel o thee!ocratic otes that Kir) and (enende4 need M especiall" as for!erSecretar" of State Hillar" +linton, a prospectie 2$1 presidential candidate,called the sanctions le*islation a “er" serio-s strate*ic error” on <ednesda"



The impact#s ine4itableno deal and it 0on#t sol4eany0ays@loomberg 1/&W err" tlas, 1%2%2$15, >Iran 6-clear eal ProspectsNade as Israel @pposes er!s>, Bloo!&er*,http://...&loo!&er*co!/ne.s/articles/2$15%$1%2/iran%n-clear%deal%

prospects%fade%as%israel%di*s%in%a*ainst%ter!s, ccessed: 1%29%2$153 0@The odds of reaching a deal to pre4ent Iran from de4eloping nuclear0eapons that could pass muster in Tehran" Herusalem and the U.S.Congress are gro0ing longer . U.S. oXcials ha4e ne4er said thechances of success 0ere better than <=/<=" and pri4ately some:merican negotiators are much more pessimistic than that as thenegotiations head to0ard a Garch & deadline to agree on a politicalframe0or. Israeli Pri!e (inister BenJa!in Netanyahu said (onda" that he “stronglyob5ects to the terms of the potential nuclear deal. That#s a messagehe#s liely to press 0hen he comes to $ashington in Garch" shortlybefore Israeli elections" to address a 5oint meeting of Congress andrally pro/Israel acti4ists to lobby la0maers too. “The agreement

no0 being formulated bet0een the ma5or po0ers and Iran isunacceptable to Israel" 6etan"ah- said in co!!ents d-rin* a isit to a defense co!pan" in

;eh-d, near el i “his a*ree!ent is dan*ero-s to Israel, to the re*ion and to the .orld” 6etan"ah-Asp-sh to )ill a deal .ill f-rther strain his relations .ith President Barac) @&a!a, .hoAs !ade *ettin* a

n-clear a*ree!ent one of his forei*n polic" priorities “6etan"ah- &eliees the pendingagreement 0ould destroy the 0hole sanctions frame0or and allo0Iran to continue its illicit nuclear program, and his strate*" is tr" to -se the

ep-&lican +on*ress as a co-nter.ei*ht to @&a!aAs deter!ination to seal a &ad deal .ith ehran,” said

Lerald Stein&er*, a political scientist at Bar%Ilan Gniersit" near el i “The only other optionfor him 0ould be military action" 0hich 0ould create e4en morefriction 0ith the U.S. The U.S." the 4e nations that are itsnegotiating partners and Iran are 0rangling o4er the terms of a dealthat 0ould limit Iran#s nuclear capabilities to pre4ent the Islamic

2epublic from de4eloping nuclear 0eapons. Iran says its nuclearprogram is solely for ci4ilian purposes. @&a!a said in his State of the Gnion address

this !onth that the &ipartisan !oe in +on*ress for f-rther sanctions le*islation “threatens to derail” the

tal)s He said heAd eto s-ch a !eas-re to “*ie diplo!ac" a chance to s-cceed” !emocraticSenator !ianne Feinstein of California on Gonday denouncedsanctions legislation" such as a bill oered by 2epublican SenatorGar Qir of Illinois and !emocratic Senator Senator @ob Genende-of Ne0 Hersey" as recless and dangerous. (enende4 a&r-ptl" shifted his

position on -esda" and said he no. s-pports dela"in* a Senate oor ote -ntil after the (arch 28deadline in the tal)s He .as Joined &" e!ocratic collea*-es incl-din* +h-c) Sch-!er of 6e. ;or), theSenateAs 6o # e!ocrat, in a letter to @&a!a A=ia&leA eal ep-&lican Senator ichard Shel&" ofla&a!a, the chair!an of the Ban)in* +o!!ittee, has sched-led a !eetin* of the panel on h-rsda" toact on the Kir)%(enende4 &ill He said the Senate sho-ld !oe ahead &eca-se !ore press-re on Iran isneeded to prod-ce a “ia&le” deal he !aJor pro%Israel *ro-p, the !erican Israel P-&lic airs

+o!!ittee, has told la.!a)ers that the i!position of f-rther sanctions is needed to *et a *ood deal fro!Iran he chair!an of the Senate Norei*n elations +o!!ittee, ep-&lican Bo& +or)er of ennessee, said

-esda" that “the last thin*” +on*ress sho-ld do is pass le*islation no. that lac)s eno-*h otes tooerco!e an @&a!a eto +or)er said last .ee) that heAs draftin* le*islation that .o-ld a re-ire acon*ressional reie. of an" a*ree!ent n accord .o-ldnAt &e a treat" re-irin* Senate ratiDcation,tho-*h onl" +on*ress co-ld lift GS sanctions on Iran per!anentl", as a deal .o-ld call for XSha!A6e*otiations Blo.in* -p the tal)s is a *oal for so!e GS la.!a)ers &ac)in* the i!position of !oresanctions, s-ch as ep-&lican Senator o! +otton of r)ansas, a !e!&er of the intelli*ence and ar!edserices co!!ittees, .ho adocates a GS polic" see)in* re*i!e chan*e in Iran he end of the “sha!”ne*otiations “isnAt an -nintended conse-ence of con*ressional action,” +otton said t.o .ee)s a*o at theHerita*e No-ndation, a <ashin*ton polic" *ro-p that reects ep-&lican and conseratie ie.s on !an"iss-es “It is er" !-ch an intended conse-ence %% a feat-re, not a &-*, so to spea)” Iran has its hard%



liners too <hile the" hae critici4ed Norei*n (inister (oha!!ad 0aad Uarif, the co-ntr"As top ne*otiator,the onl" opinion that !atters is that of S-pre!e Eeader "atollah li Kha!enei GS oQcials hae

-estioned .hether he .ill per!it Iranian concessions s-Qcient for a deal IsraelAs @&Jections Thenuclear capabilities that Iran 0ould be allo0ed to retain are the cruof Israeli ob5ections and are sure to be scrutini-ed by Iran#s otherregional foe" Saudi :rabia " 0hich has raised the prospect of

de4eloping its o0n nuclear 0eapons in response to Iranian actions.East .ee), the head of IsraelAs (ossad intelli*ence serice, a!ir Pardo, hi*hli*hted IsraelAs o&Jections to“the &ad deal” .hen he !et .ith a *ro-p of isitin* senators led &" ep-&lican 0ohn (c+ain of ri4ona

The Gossad chief pointed out eplicitly that the bad agreementtaing shape 0ith Iran is liely to lead to a regional arms race,”

accordin* to a state!ent fro! the a*enc" Iran .onAt !a)e necessar" concessions .itho-t !ore press-res-ch as increased sanctions, een if that a!o-nts to “thro.in* a *renade” to create a “te!porar" crisis”in the tal)s, accordin* to the state!ent So!e for!er GS oQcials, -sin* a !etaphor for &ar*ainin* in a&a4aar rather than a !ilitar" one, ar*-e that !erica and its allies !-st .al) o-t of the tal)s to .renchthe necessar" concessions o-t of the Iranians Cident isp-tes <hile GS oQcials sa" that nothin* isa*reed -pon -ntil eer"thin* is a*reed -pon, the iss-es in disp-te .ere eident in Senate testi!on" last.ee) &" ep-t" Secretar" of State nton" Blin)en +entral to the de&ate, Israel .ants !eas-res todis!antle parts of IranAs n-clear infrastr-ct-re so it .o-ld &e -na&le to deelop n-clear .eapons Blin)ensaid the deal ta)in* shape .o-ldnAt *o that far and, .ith intr-sie inspections, .o-ld ens-re that cheatin*&" Iran .o-ld set o a trip%.ire .arnin* “n" a*ree!ent !-st *ie -s conDdence that sho-ld Iran chooseto &rea) its co!!it!ents, it .o-ld ta)e at least one "ear to prod-ce eno-*h Dssile !aterial for a &o!&,”

he told the Senate Ban)in* +o!!ittee hat reects that the GS enisions allo.in* Iran to retain li!itedcapa&ilities to enrich -rani-! for n-clear po.er, .hich is also an essential step to prod-cin* n-clear.eapons Israel has said Iran has no need for that technolo*" ecept to !aintain a potential .eapons

capa&ilit" 6etan"ah-As @&Jections Netanyahu said Gonday that such terms lea4eIran the ability to produce the necessary material for a nuclearbomb 0ithin a fe0 months and after0ards to produce do-ens ofnuclear bombs. The U.S. and its negotiating partners // China"France" Eermany" 2ussia and the U.Q. // concluded months ago thatsticing to a -ero/enrichment demand 0ould ill any chance ofreaching an agreement because Iran 0ould ne4er accept it" @linensaid. “I thin) it &eca!e clear not onl" to -s, &-t also to all of o-r partners, that Iran .as not *oin* to

*ie -p, as a practical !atter, so!e er" li!ited for!s of enrich!ent,” he said he .orld po.ersconceded that Iran .o-ld retain so!e enrich!ent capa&ilit" .hen the" approed the c-rrent interi!

accord, .hich has fro4en or rolled &ac) so!e of IranAs actiities, Blin)en said In his Senate testi!on",Blin)en said the .orld po.ers can lie .ith that, and he reJected the idea that airstri)es, s-ch as thosethreatened &" Israel, .o-ld th.art IranAs n-clear actiities in the lon* ter!



@ottom of the !ocet

Not top of the docet/ 0on#t get 4oted on until afterGarch &

@loomberg 1%&> [1/2F/15, >(enende4 Gr*es ela" in His @.n IranSanctions Ee*islation> http://...&loo!&er*co!/politics/articles/2$15%$1%2F/!enende4%-r*es%dela"%in%his%o.n%iran%sanctions%le*islation'

he top e!ocrat on the Senate Norei*n elations +o!!ittee said he .illsee) to dela" action on le*islation heAs sponsorin* that .o-ld i!pose !oresanctions on Iran if ne*otiations oer its n-clear pro*ra! fail W t a SenateBan)in* +o!!ittee hearin* -esda", Senator Bo& (enende4 of 6e. 0erse"called for postponin* a Senate oor ote -ntil a (arch 28 deadline in tal)s&et.een Iran and .orld po.ers (enende4, a leadin* sanctions adocate,.as &ac)ed &" collea*-es incl-din* +h-c) Sch-!er of 6e. ;or), the SenateAs6o # e!ocrat, in a letter to President Barac) @&a!aW he !oe !a" stop,or at least slo., !o!ent-! in the ep-&lican%led Senate to.ard passa*e of

le*islation that @&a!a has said heAll eto . In his State of the Gnion address this !onth,@&a!a said f-rther sanctions le*islation “threatens to derail” the tal)s to c-r& IranAs n-clear

capa&ilitiesW “Gany of my !emocratic colleagues and I sent a letter tothe president telling him 0e 0ill not support passage of the Qir/Genende- bill on the Senate 3oor until after a Garch & deadline inthe negotiations" Genende- said" referring to legislation he has0ored on 0ith 2epublican Senator Gar Qir of Illinois W he GS, the Denations that are its ne*otiatin* partners and Iran are .ran*lin* oer ter!s of a deal that .o-ld li!it IranAsn-clear capa&ilities to preent the Isla!ic ep-&lic fro! deelopin* n-clear .eapons Iran sa"s its n-clear

pro*ra! is solel" for ciil ian p-rposesW 6o XCc-sesAW “:fter Garch &" 0e 0ill only 4otefor this legislation on the Senate 3oor if Iran fails to reachagreement on a political frame0or that addresses all parameters of a comprehensi4e agreement " the senators said in the letter to

Obama. Genende- told reporters in the GS +apitol -esda" after thehearin* that he sought the delay to gi4e the president the space thathe 0anted and to not ha4e any ecuses for an agreement not beingachie4ed.”W he <hite Ho-se .elco!ed the !oe &" (enende4 to &ac) o the sanctions &ill,

accordin* to an ad!inistration oQcial .ho &riefed reporters a&oard ir Norce @ne as @&a!a ret-rned tothe GS fro! Sa-di ra&iaW hat oQcial said the president and !e!&ers of his ad!inistration haecontin-ed to press the ar*-!ent that -nilaterall" i!posin* ne. sanctions ris)s derailin* the n-clear tal)sand splittin* the international coalition &ehind the sanctions re*i!e, .hich has &een eectie in forcin*Iran to &ar*ainW X=ia&leA ealW ep-&lican Senator ichard Shel&" of la&a!a, the chair!an of theBan)in* +o!!ittee, has sched-led a !eetin* of the panel on h-rsda" to act on the Kir)%(enende4 &illHe said the Senate sho-ld !oe ahead &eca-se !ore press-re on Iran is needed to prod-ce a “ia&le”dealW eJectin* @&a!aAs ar*-!ent that addin* !ore sanctions .o-ld sa&ota*e chances for diplo!ac".ith Iran, Shel&" said, “ItAs &een !" eperience that if a part" is ne*otiatin* in *ood faith and .ith anintent to reach an a*ree!ent, the" .ill see) co!!on *ro-nd and not an ec-se to .al) a.a"”W ep-t"Secretar" of State nton" Blin)en, testif"in* &efore the Senate co!!ittee, said he “appreciates er"

!-ch” (enende4As !oe for a dela"W he etension of the interi! a*ree!ent .ith Iran calls for reachin*a political fra!e.or) &" (arch 28 and then co!pletin* all the technical details &" the end of 0-ne Blin)ensaid itAs possi&le the ad!inistration !a" need !ore ti!e &e"ond (arch 28 for the political accord ifne*otiators are close to a deal at that dateW eadline etailsW @Qcials hae &een a*-e p-&licl" a&o-t.hat a fra!e.or) .o-ld re-ire, and Blin)en said last .ee) that it !a" or !a" not &e in a .ritten for!that .o-ld &e !ade p-&lic he idea is that it .o-ld set the ter!s of the accord in !-ltiple chapters, .hich.o-ld s-&se-entl" re-ire co!ple technical ele!ents to detail i!ple!entation and eriDcationW Senate(aJorit" Eeader (itch (c+onnell, a Kent-c)" ep-&lican, told reporters -esda" at the +apitol that adecision a&o-t the le*islationAs ti!in* .o-ld &e !ade after the &ill !oes o-t of co!!itteeW

L2epublican Senator @ob Corer of Tennessee emphasi-ed the needfor bipartisan action on Iran. *e said during the hearing that the



last thing Congress should do is pass legislation that 0on#t ha4et0o/thirds ma5ority 4ote needed to o4ercome a 4eto . :fter thehearing" Corer" 0ho leads the Senate Foreign 2elations Committee"said he doesn#t 0ant Iran to see a partisan split. *e said his guessis that the Qir/Genende- bill 0ill mae it to the Senate 3oor afterthe Garch deadline" as its !emocratic supporters are urging. One

thing I 0ant to do is mae sure 0e stay unied as much as possible"he told reporters in the GS +apitolW 6ine other Senate e!ocrats Joined (enende4 in the @&a!a letter,.hich pled*ed not to s-pport the !eas-re on the oor &efore the (arch deadline Senators .ho si*ned theletter incl-ded Sch-!er, 0oe onnell" of Indiana, ichard Bl-!enthal of +onnectic-t, Lar" Peters ande&&ie Sta&eno. of (ichi*an, Bo& +ase" of Penns"lania, Ben +ardin of (ar"land, +hris +oons ofela.are and 0oe (anchin of <est =ir*iniaW Israel and !an" of its s-pporters in the GS hae p-shed for!ore sanctions to aert .hat Pri!e (inister BenJa!in 6etan"ah- has called the “&ad deal” ta)in* shapein ne*otiations .ith Iran 6etan"ah- is sched-led to address a Joint session of +on*ress on (arch # at theinitation of Ho-se Spea)er 0ohn Boehner, an @hio ep-&lican

: nuclear agreement 0ill be reached before the sanctionsare 4oted onGorello" 1&%> [+arol 12/F/18, <ashin*ton correspondent for the <ashin*ton Post, “Kerr"

Predicts Iran 6-clear al)s <ill Be Settled Eon* Before 0-ne eadline,”http://....ashin*tonpostco!/.orld/national%sec-rit"/)err"%predicts%iran%n-clear%tal)s%.ill%&e%settled%lon*%&efore%J-ne%deadline/2$18/12/$F/F2d17dc%Fe57%11e8%9f#7%95a17Fe8c1fFZstor"ht!l'

Secretar" of State 0ohn N Kerr" predicted S-nda" that a deal to li!it IranAsn-clear capacit" co-ld &e reached in three or fo-r !onths, or een sooner ppearin* at the Sa&an Nor-!, .hich is aQliated .ith the Broo)in*sInstit-tion, Kerr" defended the decision t.o .ee)s a*o to etend n-clearne*otiations .ith Iran for -p to seen !onths he etension ca!e after theparties failed to a*ree on a co!prehensie pact in last%!in-te tal)s leadin*-p to a 6o 28 deadline B-t Kerr" said it .ill &eco!e apparent, lon* &eforethe ne. 0-ne #$ deadline, if an a*ree!ent is feasi&le “<eAre not loo)in* atseen !onths,” Kerr" said “I thin) the tar*et is three, fo-r !onths, and

hopef-ll" een sooner if that is possi&le”







Cybersecurity



Topshelf



1NC

Cybersecurity bill 0ill pass" but Obama#s political capitalis ey.

Sorcher" 1%1 [Sara, 1/18/15, sta .riter for the +hristian Science(onitor, “Son" hac) *ies @&a!a political capital to p-sh c"&ersec-rit"a*enda,” Christian Science Monitor ,http://...cs!onitorco!/<orld/Passcode/2$15/$118/Son"%hac)%*ies%@&a!a%political%capital%to%p-sh%c"&ersec-rit"%a*enda%ideo'In *ridloc)ed <ashin*ton, the aftereects of the c"&erattac on Sony Pict-res may -lti!atel"

forces 2epublicans and !emocrats to come together on an

information/sharing &ill Cd.ard Sno.den !a" hae doo!ed the prospects for c"&ersec-rit"

le*islation last +on*ress O &-t 6orth Korea !a" reie the! in this one fter the lea)s fro! the for!er6ational Sec-rit" *enc" contractor, priac" adocates sta-nchl" opposed c"&ersec-rit" &ills that shareinfor!ation .ith the *oern!ent, a!id fears the" .o-ld increase the sp" a*enc"As po.er to access andshare een !ore priate infor!ation fro! citi4ens he infor!ation%sharin* &ills stalled ;et President

Obama#s ne0 push this .ee) has so far been 0armly recei4ed on Capitol

*ill O and on both sides of the aisle @&a!aAs proposals, one .ee) &efore his State of the Gnionaddress, co!e after the destr-ctie hac) of Son" Pict-res Cntertain!ent, for .hich the *oern!ent hasp-&licl" &la!ed and sanctioned 6orth Korea ItAs also on the heels of a !aelstro! of other hi*h%proDle data&reaches last O incl-din* on Ho!e epot and 0P (or*an +hase +o O and this .ee)As &rief ta)eoer of the

GS !ilitar"As +entral +o!!and social !edia acco-nts &" apparent Isla!ic State s-pporters ll told, itmay be enough momentum to brea the log5am and gi4e members of Congress political co4er to come together this session to support a

contro4ersial part of Obama#s cybersecurity agenda : o *ie co!panies

i!!-nit" fro! la.s-its if the" share certain infor!ation a&o-t c"&er threats .ith the *oern!ent .ith the

epart!ent of Ho!eland Sec-rit" :n information/sharing bill has to pass thisCongress,” Senate Intelli*ence +o!!ittee +hair!an ichard B-rr, a 6orth +arolina ep-&lican, told

Passcode “It helps any time the president supports something ” Go4ing a

cybersecurity infor!ation%sharin* &ill “ has ne4er been easy ,” he ac)no.led*ed, “&-t

.eAre co!!itted to *o etre!el" -ic)l"”

((Insert )in *ere++

Obama#s legislation ey to pre4ent 0idespreadcyberattacs.Gartin" 1%1 [Lre*, 1/17/15, fo-nder and +@ of hreatStrea!, proiderof c"&er threat intelli*ence for enterprise and *oern!ent, “Here?s <hat heGS Has o o o Preent (assie +"&erattac)s,” Business Insider,http://...&-sinessinsiderco!/.hat%.e%hae%to%do%to%stop%c"&erattac)s%

2$15%1'Preentin* these attac)s isnAt eas", and thereAs no s-ch thin* as a “siler &-llet” B-t if a companyor go4ernment agency no0s ahead of time ho. it is li)el" to &e hac)ed, thatgi4es it a crucial ad4antage 0hen defending a*ainst a sophisticated hac)er nd

that#s &asicall" all that cyber information sharing proposes to do : tae

e4idence or cl-es fro! one attac) and use it to protect e4eryone else Nor ea!ple: if

oil reDner" notices so!eone is tr"in* to hac) it, the" can ascertain the IP addresses3 lin)ed to theattac)er, ro-tin* infor!ation, an" t"pe of !al.are &ein* -sed, soft.are &-*s eploited &" the hac)er, etc,and pass that infor!ation alon* to the epart!ent of Ho!eland Sec-rit", .hich .ill in t-rn pass it o-t to



other co!panies so that reDneries B, + and arenAt also hac)ed his infor!ation is sort of li)e the

Dn*erprint of the attac)er t the ris) of !iin* !etaphors, this is the cyber eAui4alent of4accinating a company a*ainst a speciDc threat he PresidentAs prioriti4ation of c"&er

infor!ation%sharin* isnAt a )nee%Jer) reaction to the !assie Son" hac), .hich has since &een attri&-ted to6orth Korea his has &een on the le*islatie a*enda for so!e ti!e, itAs J-st failed to *et eno-*h s-pportto pass @&a!a Drst proposed this refor! &ac) in 2$11, and +on*ress has since Dled &ills s-pportin*infor!ation%sharin* eer" "ear since 2$11 <hile ciil li&ert" *ro-ps are lar*el" opposed to c"&er

infor!ation sharin*, their concerns are !is*-ided The t"pe of infor!ation that .ill &e s.apped&et.een the priate sector and the *oern!ent 0ill be limited to technical data, s-ch as

IP addresses, ro-tin* infor!ation, date%ti!e sta!ps, etc M not .hat a person has &een &ro.sin* on the<e& e!e!&er, this t"pe of data collection is li!ited to cri!inal online actiit" M denial%of%sericeattac)s, net.or) intr-sions, spreadin* !al.are, phishin* and the li)e he President has e!phasi4ed thats-ch data collection .o-ld scr-& o-t personall" identiDa&le infor!ation if a person is not related to the

c"&er threat Cyber information sharing is so important for pre4enting the

t"pes of attac)s .eAe seen oer the last fe. "ears, that aspects of it hae alread" &een incorporated into!an" of the sec-rit" prod-cts on the !ar)et toda" % incl-din* antiir-s, anti%!al.are, intr-sion detections"ste!s and !ore here are also a fe. priate clo-d%&ased sharin* platfor!s that co!panies are no.-sin* dditionall", the &an)in* ind-str" recentl" la-nched its o.n nation.ide infor!ation sharin* pro*ra!

to help !e!&er &an)s sta" ahead of hac)ers he pro&le!, ho.eer, is that right no0 this is apatch0or eort. The current threat intelligence .e hae isn#t enough totrac the ma5ority of threats o-t there nd !ost co!panies arenAt -sin* an" threat

intelli*ence at all $ithout a federal la0 that a-thori4es c"&er infor!ation sharin* andproides li!ited lia&ilit" protections so that co!panies donAt hae to .orr" a&o-t a class%action la.s-it J-st

&eca-se the" shared anon"!i4ed technical data c-lled fro! actie c"&er attac)s, this ne0

defense 0on#t 0or en !asse since it 0ill be limited to a smaller pool of

threat data Until it goes mainstream, co!panies and other institutions 0on#t &e

a&le to benet fro! a )e" adance!ent in ho. .e D*ht a*ainst hac)ers B" no., !ost people sho-ld

reali4e that cyber attacs aren#t a theoretical ris) M the"Are happenin* eer" da", and

the scale of these attacs is gro0ing 0orse each "ear he “.iper” !al.are attac) noted

at the &e*innin* of this article isnAt a !ade%-p scenario M this act-all" happened to !-ltiple So-th Korean&an)s in 2$1# his attac) .as si!ilar to one *lo&al ener*" *iant Sa-di ra!co eperienced a "ear &efore,.hen #$,$$$ of its co!p-ters .ere also rendered -n-sa&le &" .iper !al.are In 2$12 and 2$1#, !an"leadin* GS &an)s .ere )noc)ed oYine inter!ittentl" oer a period of seeral da"s &" the sa!e *ro-ps3-sin* distri&-ted denial%of%serice oS3 attac)s In 2$18, GS retailers .ere infected .ith ariations of the

sa!e t"pe of point%of%sale !al.are, )no.n as Blac)P@S East "ear, the ener*" ind-str" .as .idel"aected &" the sa!e strand of !al.are, )no.n as Blac)Cner*" Cybersecurity is li)el" to &e one

of the greatest security challenge s facing US go4ernment agencies

and businesses oer the net decade Using clues fro! one attac) to preent it fro!

spreadin* to other &-sinesses is crucial to stopping the rampage

Cyber attacs collapse command and control V the breado0n in decision/ maing causes nuclear 0ar.Cimbala" 11Stephen, Professor of Political Science at Penn State Gniersit", “6-clear +risis

(ana*e!ent and >+"&er.ar> Phishin* for ro-&leR” Strategic Studies Quarterly , Sprin*, 11F%1#1,pro-est3

his section disc-sses ho. cyber0ar !i*ht ad4ersely aect nuclear crisis

management eaders are adised, ho.eer, that histor" is indeter!inate It !i*ht t-rn o-t that, inso!e fort-ito-s cases, the Gnited States co-ld -se n-clear deterrence and c"&er.ar as Joint !-ltipliersto.ard a s-ccessf-l o-tco!e in crisis or .ar Nor ea!ple, in facin* do.n an opponent .ith aco!paratiel" s!all or no n-clear arsenal and inferior conentional stri)e capa&ilities, the Gnited States oranother po.er co-ld e!plo" infor!ation .arfare a**ressiel" >-p front> .hile for*oin* eplicit !ention ofits aaila&le n-clear capa&ilit" -ssia?s De%da" .ar a*ainst Leor*ia in -*-st 2$$7 inoled o&io-sc"&er attac)s as .ell as land and air operations, &-t no eplicit n-clear threats @n the other hand, hadLeor*ia alread" &een ta)en into !e!&ership &" 6@ prior to -*-st 2$$7 or had -sso%Leor*ian D*htin*spread into 6@ !e!&er%state territor", the isi&il it" of -ssia?s n-clear arsenal as a latent andpotentiall" eplicit threat .o-ld hae &een !-ch *reater 6ot.ithstandin* the precedin* disclai!ers,infor!ation .arfare has the potential to attac) or disr-pt s-ccessf-l crisis !ana*e!ent on each of fo-r



di!ensions Nirst, it can muddy the signals &ein* sent fro! one side to the other in a crisis his

can &e done deli&eratel" or inad4ertently. S-ppose one side plants a ir-s or .or! in the other?s

co!!-nications net.or)s19 he ir-s or .or! &eco!es actiated d-rin* the crisis and destro"s or altersinfor!ation he !issin* or altered infor!ation !a" !a)e it !ore diQc-lt for the c"&er icti! to arran*e a

!ilitar" attac) B-t destro"ed or altered information may mislead either side into

thin)in* that its si*nal has &een correctl" interpreted .hen it has not h-s, side !a" intend to si*nal>resole> instead of >"ield> to its opponent on a partic-lar iss-e Side B, !isperceiin* a >"ield> !essa*e,

!a" decide to contin-e its a**ression, !eetin* -nepected resistance and ca-sin* a !-ch !oredan*ero-s sit-ation to deelopW Info0ar can also destro" or disrupt co!!-nication

channels necessary for successful crisis management @ne .a" it can do thisis to disr-pt co!!-nication lin)s &et.een polic"!a)ers and !ilitar" co!!anders d-rin* a period of hi*hthreat and seere ti!e press-re .o )inds of -nanticipated pro&le!s, fro! the standpoint of ciil%!ilitar"relations, are possi&le -nder these conditions Nirst, political leaders !a" hae predele*ated li!iteda-thorit" for n-clear release or la-nch -nder restrictie conditions onl" .hen these fe. conditions o&tain,accordin* to the protocols of predele*ation, .o-ld !ilitar" co!!anders &e a-thori4ed to e!plo" n-clear

.eapons distri&-ted .ithin their co!!and +lo**ed, destro"ed, or disruptedcommunications co-ld pre4ent top leaders from no0ing that !ilitar"

commanders percei4ed a situation to be far !ore desperate, and th-s

permissi4e of nuclear initiati4e, than it reall" .as -rin* the +old <ar, for ea!ple,

disr-pted co!!-nications &et.een the GS 6ational +o!!and -thorit" and &allistic !issile s-&!arines,once the latter ca!e -nder attac), co-ld hae res-lted in a Joint decision &" s-&!arine oQcers to la-nch

in the a&sence of contrar" instr-ctionsW Second, infor!ation .arfare d-rin* a crisis .ill al!ost certainl"increase the ti!e press-re -nder .hich political leaders operate It !a" do this literall", or it !a" aectthe perceied ti!elines .ithin .hich the polic"!a)in* process can !a)e its decisions @nce either sidesees parts of its co!!and, control, and co!!-nications +#3 s"ste! &ein* s-&erted &" phon"infor!ation or etraneo-s c"&er noise, its sense of panic at the possi&le loss of !ilitar" options .ill &eenor!o-s In the case of GS +old <ar n-clear .ar plans, for ea!ple, disr-ption of een portions of thestrate*ic +# s"ste! co-ld hae preented co!petent eec-tion of parts of the SI@P the strate*ic n-clear.ar plan3 he SI@P depended -pon Dnel" orchestrated ti!e%on%tar*et esti!ates and precise da!a*eepectancies a*ainst ario-s classes of tar*ets Partiall" !isinfor!ed or disinfor!ed net.or)s andco!!-nications centers .o-ld hae led to red-ndant attac)s a*ainst the sa!e tar*et sets and, -itepossi&l", -nplanned attac)s on friendl" !ilitar" or ciilian installationsW third potentiall" disr-ptie eect

of info0ar on n-clear crisis !ana*e!ent is that it !a" reduce the search for aaila&le

alternati4es to the fe. and desperate Polic"!a)ers searchin* for escapes fro! crisis deno-e!ents

need ei&le options and creatie pro&le! solin* =icti!s of infor!ation .arfare !a" hae a di!inisheda&ilit" to sole pro&le!s ro-tinel", let alone creatiel", once infor!ation net.or)s are Dlled .ith otsa!and Jetsa! V-estions to operators .ill &e poorl" posed, and responses if aaila&le at all3 .ill &e drien

to.ard the least co!!on deno!inator of preio-sl" pro*ra!!ed standard operatin* proced-res

2etaliatory systems that depend on la-nch%on%.arnin* instead of s-rial after ridin* o-t an

attac) are especially 4ulnerable to red-ced ti!e c"cles and restricted alternaties: : .ell%

desi*ned 0arning system cannot sa4e commanders from mis5udging thesituation -nder the constraints of ti!e and infor!ation i!posed &" a post-re of la-nch on .arnin*

S-ch a post-re tr-ncates the decision process too earl" for iteratie esti!ates to coner*e on realit" apidreaction is inherentl" -nsta&le &eca-se it c-ts short the learnin* ti!e needed to !atch perception .ithrealit"2$W he propensit" to search for the Drst aaila&le alternatie that !eets !ini!-! satisfactor"conditions of *oal attain!ent is stron* eno-*h -nder nor!al conditions in non!ilitar" &-rea-cratic

or*ani4ations21 In ciil!ilitar" co!!and and control s"ste!s under the stress of nuclear

crisis decision maing" the rst aaila&le alternati4e may -ite literall" be thelast or so polic"!a)ers and their !ilitar" adisors !a" pers-ade the!seles ccordin*l", the &iasto.ard pro!pt and ade-ate sol-tions is stron* -rin* the +-&an !issile crisis, a n-!&er of !e!&ers of

the presidential adisor" *ro-p contin-ed to propo-nd an air stri)e and inasion of +-&a d-rin* the entire1# da"s of crisis deli&eration Had less ti!e &een aaila&le for de&ate and had President Kenned" notdeli&eratel" str-ct-red the disc-ssion in a .a" that forced alternaties to the s-rface, the air stri)e andinasion !i*ht .ell hae &een the chosen alternatie22W No-rth and Dnall" on the iss-e of crisis

!ana*e!ent, info0ar can cause 3a0ed images of each side?s intentions and

capabilities to &e cone"ed to the other, 0ith potentiall" disastrous results. nother

ea!ple fro! the +-&an crisis de!onstrates the possi&le side eects of si!ple !is-nderstandin* andnonco!!-nication on GS crisis !ana*e!ent t the !ost tense period of the crisis, a G%2 reconnaissanceaircraft *ot o co-rse and stra"ed into Soiet airspace GS and Soiet D*hters scra!&led, and a possi&lerctic confrontation of air forces loo!ed Khr-shche later told Kenned" that Soiet air defenses !i*ht



hae interpreted the G%2 i*ht as a prestri)e reconnaissance !ission or as a &o!&er, callin* for aco!pensator" response &" (osco.2# Nort-natel" (osco. chose to *ie the Gnited States the &eneDt ofthe do-&t in this instance and to per!it GS D*hters to escort the .a".ard G%2 &ac) to las)a <h" thissched-led G%2 !ission .as not scr-&&ed once the crisis &e*an has neer &een f-ll" reealed the ans.er!a" &e as si!ple as &-rea-cratic inertia co!po-nded &" nonco!!-nication do.n the chain of co!!and&" polic"!a)ers .ho failed to appreciate the ris) of >nor!al> reconnaissance -nder these etraordinar"conditions



&NC O,Obama is pushing for ne0 cybersecurity legislation thatmandates that companies share information aboutbreaches in security 0ith the federal go4ernment in order

to ensure that agencies lie the F@I ha4e a holisticunderstanding of the 4arious threats and are able torespond in an informed manner. *o0e4er" the planalienates ey members of congress and pre4ents the bill#spassage. This maes cyberattacs ine4itable.

This out0eighs and turns the case61/ Our Cimbala e4idence indicates that hacers 0ill go

for places lie command centers in order to destroycommunication. This is the most liely scenario for

miscalc because go4ernmental agencies areincapable of eecti4e communication

&/ Cimbala also maes a perceptions claim. In the 0orldof collapsed go4ernmental communication" 0e create3a0ed images of other countries# intentions andcapabilities" ensuring a hostile position thateacerbates the ris of 0ar.

I#ll do the impact calc here6

First is probability/ cyberattacs are daily

occurrence" and it is only a Auestion of scale.*o0e4er" hacers are gaining condence in the US#sinability to respond to threats" as is empiricallypro4en by the Sony hac by North Qorea. This shouldframe your ballot because it is not a Auestion of ifbut 0hen

Second is timeframe/ this really shouldn#t be a bigfactor in your decision calculus because 0hile 0edon#t no0 eactly 0hen 0e 0ill face the big hac" itcould happen at any time. The best method of ris

mitigation means that you should e4aluate thisthreat as happening at any moment" 0hich means 0eha4e a timeframe of functionally -ero.

Third is magnitude/ Cimbala is really good on thisAuestion. : ma5or cyberattac 0ill result inetinction in a number of 0ays inability to retaliate"



unduly hostile perceptions of other countries" andincreased inclination for nuclear measures.



&NC U8 $all

The Sony hac has gi4en Obama PC to pass Cyber SecuritylegislationSorcher 1/18 [Sara, 1/18/15, sta .riter for the +hristian Science (onitor, >Son" Hac) Lies @&a!a

Political +apital to P-sh +"&ersec-rit" *enda,>

http://...cs!onitorco!/<orld/Passcode/2$15/$118/Son"%hac)%*ies%@&a!a%political%capital%to%p-sh%

c"&ersec-rit"%a*enda%ideo3

Cd.ard Sno.den !a" hae doo!ed the prospects for c"&ersec-rit"le*islation last +on*ress O &-t 6orth Korea !a" reie the! in this one Wfter the lea)s fro! the for!er 6ational Sec-rit" *enc" contractor, priac"adocates sta-nchl" opposed c"&ersec-rit" &ills that share infor!ation .iththe *oern!ent, a!id fears the" .o-ld increase the sp" a*enc"As po.er toaccess and share een !ore priate infor!ation fro! citi4ens heinfor!ation%sharin* &ills stalledW ;et President @&a!aAs ne. p-sh this .ee)has so far &een .ar!l" receied on +apitol Hill V and on &oth sides of theaisleW Obama#s proposals" one 0ee before his State of the Union

address" come after the destructi4e hac of Sony Pictures7ntertainment" for 0hich the go4ernment has publicly blamed andsanctioned North Qorea. It#s also on the heels of a maelstrom ofother high/prole data breaches last V including on *ome !epot and HP Gorgan Chase Y Co. V and this 0ee#s brief taeo4er of the USmilitary#s Central Command social media accounts by apparentIslamic State supporters . :ll told" it may be enough momentum tobrea the log5am and gi4e members of Congress political co4er tocome together this session to support a contro4ersial part ofObama#s cybersecurity agenda 6 To gi4e companies immunity fromla0suits if they share certain information about cyber threats 0iththe go4ernment 0ith the !epartment of *omeland Security. :n

information/sharing bill has to pass this Congress" SenateIntelligence Committee Chairman 2ichard @urr" a 6orth +arolina ep-&lican, told

Passcode “It helps an" ti!e the president s-pports so!ethin*”W (oin* a c"&ersec-rit" infor!ation%

sharin* &ill “has neer &een eas",” he ac)no.led*ed, “&-t .eAre co!!itted to *o etre!el" -ic)l"”W Let

(onitor c"&ersec-rit" ne.s and anal"sis deliered strai*ht to "o-r in&oW he Son" hac) .as a .a)e%-p

call on +apitol Hill, seeral la.!a)ers said he attac)ers not onl" stole priate infor!ation, the"

destro"ed co!pan" data and co!p-ter hard.are, and the" also coerced Son" into alterin* its plans to

release >he Interie.,> the co!ed" a&o-t the assassination of the 6orth Korean leaders ll of this !a"

*o a lon* .a" to pers-ade la.!a)ers that !andatin* infor!ation sharin* a&o-t c"&ersec-rit" threats .ill

-lti!atel" help defend priate co!paniesW “IA! *lad [@&a!a' is p-shin* to address c"&er le*islation,”

said ep-&lican Sen Kell" "otte of 6e. Ha!pshire “<eAe stalled in the past, and if "o- loo) at .hat

happened .ith the Son" attac), I thin) .e canAt aord to stall an"!ore I thin) his ti!in* is ri*ht on

here\ I haenAt tal)ed to an"one in +on*ress .ho has said, Xhis sho-ldnAt &e a priorit" for -sA”W Sen

n*-s Kin*, an independent on the Intelli*ence +o!!ittee, a*reed “I thin) eer"&od" reali4es the-r*enc"”W (ar"land e!ocratic ep -tch -ppers&er*er, .ho alread" reintrod-ced his ersion of

infor!ation%sharin* le*islation this session, said in a state!ent that, “President @&a!a and I a*ree .e can

no lon*er aord to pla" political *a!es .hile ro*-e hac)ers, terrorists, or*ani4ed cri!inals and een state

actors sharpen their c"&er s)ills”W Ho.eer, J-st &eca-se “eer"&od"As on &oard .iththe idea of it” O as ep-&lican Sen 0ohn (c+ain p-ts it O doesnAt !ean it .ill&e eas" to !a)e pro*ress on this controersial and co!plicated iss-e “I hae&een to !ore !eetin*s on c"&er than an" other iss-e in !" ti!e in theSenate, and *otten the least a!o-nt of res-lt,” said Senator (c+ain, .ho



chairs the r!ed Serices +o!!itteeW There are already di4isionsemerging this time around. GcCain opposes the $hite *ouse#sproposal to route cyberthreat information through the !epartmentof *omeland Security He said the 6ational Sec-rit" *enc" sho-ld ta)ethat role “IA! *lad to see a proposal of theirs, for a chan*e, and .eAll &e *ladto .or) on it O J-st not r-&&er sta!p it,” said (c+ainW On the other side of

the spectrum" some pri4acy ad4ocates are unhappy that Obama#sproposal V 0hich essentially rehashes bills maligned by pri4acygroups since &=11 V 0ould enable !*S to share the data it recei4eson threats 0ith other rele4ant federal agencies. $e#re going to bepushing to ill the bill " probably" said Gar Hayco" a legislati4eanalyst for the 7lectronic Frontier Foundation, in part &eca-se it still does not

appear to oer a !andator" re-ire!ent co!panies re!oe personal infor!ation &efore sharin* it, and

&eca-se the data .ill -lti!atel" end -p in the hands of the 6SW “<hile its al.a"s *ood for the <hite

Ho-se to tal) a&o-t cons-!er priac" and -ser priac", the !ost i!portant priac" ite! is 6S refor!,”

(r 0a"co saidW hat said, !e!&ers appear to hae an e"e on co!pro!iseW @ne of the !ost diisie

iss-es has &een .hich a*enc" .ill collect the threat infor!ation O and Senate Ho!eland Sec-rit" and

Loern!ental airs +hair!an on 0ohnson sa"s he is inclined to s-pport -sin* HS as the !ain

repositor"W “Beca-se of the sensitiit" of the Cd.ard Sno.den p-&lic perception, and the concern a&o-t

ciil li&erties, the ciilian a*enc" of *oern!ent !i*ht &e the &est place to hae as a center point,”

Senator 0ohnson, a <isconsin ep-&lican, told PasscodeW B-rr, the Intel chair, also hinted at the possi&ilit"

of co!pro!ise “I thin) .eAll do this in a .a" that can ass-re passa*e O &eca-se the nation needs it”W

0ohnson sa"s the -r*enc" for c"&ersec-rit" le*islation after the Son" hac) !i*ht s.a" so!e of his

ep-&lican collea*-es to !oe a.a" fro! foc-sin* on the 6S O as .ell as people on the left, too W “ItAs

not J-st the federal *oern!ent that can threaten o-r ciil li&erties,> said 0ohnson If attac)s s-ch as the

Son" hac) contin-e, he said, >ta)e a loo) at ho. !-ch at ris) o-r freedo!s .ill &e at that point”W Son"

!a" help oerco!e the post%Sno.den “fear factor” a&o-t sharin* infor!ation .ith the *oern!ent, said

ep 0i! Ean*ein, co%chair of the +on*ressional +"&ersec-rit" +a-c-s, .hich has *ro.n &" 11 !e!&ers

J-st this sessionW +"&ersec-rit" le*islation stalled &eca-se Sno.den “created this &elief that there .as

this !assie *oern!ent oerreach on the capa&ilities of the infor!ation that .as &ein* collected at 6S,”

said epresentatie Ean*ein, a hode Island e!ocrat, in an interie. last .ee) “It didnAt hae reall"

an"thin* to do .ith .hat .eAre tal)in* a&o-t in ter!s of sharin* classiDed threat si*nat-res”W B-t no., he

said, “People are becoming attuned to the fact that a country or ahacer could really go after one of the nation#s ma5or corporationsas they did against Sony" and cost them potentially hundreds ofmillions of dollars in damage. :nd that" said )ange4in" B0as an eyeopener.

Cyber security bills are unpopular but right no0 there isenough pressure to force Congress# hand@ennett" 1%&' [+or", 1/29/15, c"&ersec-rit" correspondent for the Hill,“Ea.!a)ers @er Bipartisan ata Sec-rit" Bill,”http://thehillco!/polic"/c"&ersec-rit"/2#1112%ho-se%*ets%data%&reach%&ill'

.o Ho-se !e!&ers on <ednesda" reintrod-ced a &ill re-irin* co!paniesto !eet certain data sec-rit" standards .hen handlin* c-sto!ersA personalinfor!ation ItAs the latest eort in a "ears%lon* ca!pai*n to *et a federaldata &reach &ill passed he !eas-re, fro! eps 0oe Barton %eas3 andBo&&" -sh %Ill3, .o-ld dep-ti4e the Nederal rade +o!!ission N+3 to setnation.ide data sec-rit" standards for co!panies handlin* sensitie data,s-ch as f-ll na!es, Social Sec-rit" n-!&ers, I infor!ation and credit cardinfor!ation If this infor!ation .as eposed &" hac)ers, co!panies .o-ld



hae to notif" the c-sto!ers and the N+ he" also co-ld face ciil penaltiesof -p to ]5 !illion if the" hadnAt adhered to the co!!issionAs sec-rit"standards =ersions of the &ill M )no.n as ata cco-nta&ilit" and r-st ct3 M hae &een introd-ced in the Ho-se seeral ti!es , and a !eas-re.as approed in 2$$9 B-t no ersions of the &ill hae eer &eco!e la., andin 2$18, eorts to approe a data sec-rit" &ill .ent no.here Proponents are

!ore hopef-l this "ear after a strin* of hi*h%proDle c"&erattac)s on !aJorco!panies li)e ar*et, Ho!e epot, 0P(or*an and !ost recentl" Son"Pict-res hae raised a.areness of the iss-e, p-ttin* press-re on +on*ress toact @n -esda", he Ho-se Cner*" and +o!!erce S-&co!!ittee on+o!!erce, (an-fact-rin* and rade held 2$15As Drst hearin* on data&reaches here .as *eneral &ipartisan consens-s that +on*ress can !oeon a federal data &reach &ill this "ear

Obama is pushing for ne0 cyber security legislationQelly" 1%& [Crin, 1/27/15, reporter for GS oda", “Senate Panel Be*ins+raftin* +"&ersec-rit" Ee*islation,”

http://...-satoda"co!/stor"/tech/2$15/$1/27/c"&ersec-rit"%infor!ation%sharin*%senate%ho!eland%sec-rit"/228F2$#9/'<SHI6L@6 M )e" Senate panel too) the Drst step <ednesda" to.ardcraftin* le*islation to *ie &-sinesses *reater incenties to share infor!ationa&o-t c"&er threats .ith the federal *oern!ent he Senate Ho!elandSec-rit" and Loern!ental airs +o!!ittee as)ed corporate leaders andciil li&erties eperts ho. &est to .rite a &ill that .o-ld &oost infor!ation%sharin* .hile still protectin* cons-!ers? personal data >@ne of o-r !issionsfor this +on*ress is to address the c"&ersec-rit" threat,> said the co!!ittee?sne. chair!an, Sen on 0ohnson, %<is Ea.!a)ers appear to &e !oin*-ic)l" to ta)e -p a &ill in the ne. +on*ress as President @&a!a and acoalition of tech and &-siness *ro-ps p-sh for action in the .a)e of the hi*h%

proDle hac) of Son" Pict-res in 6oe!&er In addition to <ednesda"?s Senatehearin*, Ho-se co!!ittees held t.o hearin*s on c"&ersec-rit" iss-es

-esda" he GS +ha!&er of +o!!erce, !erican Ban)ers ssociation, eleco!!-nications Ind-str" ssociation and a&o-t 2$ other &-siness *ro-pssent a letter to Senate leaders this .ee) callin* on the! to pass aninfor!ation%sharin* &ill as -ic)l" as possi&le >+"&erattac)s ai!ed at GS&-sinesses and *oern!ent entities are &ein* la-nched fro! ario-s so-rces,incl-din* sophisticated hac)ers, or*ani4ed cri!e, and state%sponsored*ro-ps,> the letter reads >hese attac)s are adancin* in scope andco!pleit" con*ressional action cannot co!e soon eno-*h>





*igh 2is

Cyber attac ris is high V best data.Carney" 1 [0ordan, 1//18, defense reporter at the 6ational 0o-rnal,

“efense Eeaders Sa" +"&er is op error hreat,”http://...nationalJo-rnalco!/defense/defense%leaders%sa"%c"&er%is%top%terror%threat%2$18$1$'!efense oXcials see cyberattacs as the greatest threat to U.S.national security, accordin* to a s-re" released (onda" Forty/4e percent of respondents

to the !efense Ne0s )eadership Poll named a cyberattac as the singlegreatest threatMnearl" 2$ percenta*e points a&oe terroris!, .hich ran)ed second he efense 6e.s

Eeadership Poll, -nder.ritten &" Gnited echnolo*ies, s-re"ed #52 efense 6e.s s-&scri&ers, &ased on Jo& seniorit",&et.een 6o 18 and 6o 27, 2$1# he poll tar*eted senior e!plo"ees .ithin the <hite Ho-se, Penta*on, +on*ress, and

the defense ind-str" >The magnitude of the cyber problem, co!&ined .ith declinin* &-d*ets,

0ill challenge the nation for "ears to co!e,> said =a*o (-radian, the editor of efense 6e.s It?s not

the Drst ti!e c"&er has ran)ed at or near the top of a list of sec-rit" concerns Seent" percent of !ericans called a

c"&erattac) fro! another co-ntr" a !aJor threat in a Pe. esearch +enter s-re" released last !onth !efense

!epartment oXcials, for their part, hae .arned a&o-t the increasin* threat NBI irector 0a!es +o!e",

and Beers, the then%actin* secretar" for the Ho!eland Sec-rit" epart!ent, and Len Keith leander, director of the

6ational Sec-rit" *enc", each 4oiced their concerns &efore +on*ress last "ear nd Ho-se Intelli*ence

+o!!ittee +hair!an (i)e 2ogers, %(ich, called it the Blargest national securitythreat to the face the U.S that .e are not een close to &ein* prepared to handle as a co-ntr">



)aundry )ist Impact

Cyber attacs cause a laundry list of impactsPaio0sy and @aram" 1%> [e*anit, 1/F/15, Ph in the epart!ent

of Political Science at el i Gniersit" Lil, Ph candidate at theepart!ent of Political Science at el i Gniersit", “Space <ars: <h" o-rspace s"ste!s need an -p*rade,” Foreign Aairs,http://...forei*naairsco!/articles/1829$/de*anit%pai)o.s)"%and%*il%&ara!/space%.ars'In Septe!&er 2$18, hacers fro! +hina broe into the GS 6ational @ceanic and t!ospheric

d!inistration NO::3 net.or) in an atte!pt to disrupt data related to disaster plannin*,

aiation, and !-ch !ore co!in* fro! GS satellites his &reach .as the latest in a series of

cyberattacs on space s"ste!s, eposin* the :chilles# heel of s-ch technolo*": the

-lnera&ilit" of its co!p-ters and the infor!ation it creates and trans!its Cyberattacs, .hich are

on the rise in eer" ind-str", pose partic-larl" signicant threats to space systems

as the" are -sed so -&i-ito-sl" in corporate and military operations, !a)in* the!

increasin*l" attractie tar*ets for hac)ers ltho-*h onl" a&o-t a do4en co-ntries hae the capa&ilit" to

la-nch a satellite into space, billions of people aro-nd the .orld rely on spacesystems for nearl" eer" aspect of !odern life Satellites are -sed to s-pport phones, the

Internet, and baning s"ste!s he" are also -sed to !onitor land, air, and !ariti!e traQc

facilitate *lo&al communications trans!it !ass !edia in real ti!e !onitor the earth for

climate change or seere .eather threats and natural disasters *ather

intelligence and send earl" 0arnings of inco!in* &allistic missiles. It is no .onder,

then, that the global economy depends on communication satellites ,

nai*ation s"ste!s, and earth%o&seration satellites he &ac)&one of all these serices consists of 1,2$$

operational satellites c-rrentl" or&itin* the earth, .hich ha4e the potential to cause

si*niDcant tangible damage &" attac)in* national or *lo&al space s"ste!s across co-ntries and

continents 74en a small glitch can 0rea ha4oc Nor ea!ple, in pril 2$18, the

Llonass S"ste!, the -ssian e-ialent of the !erican%desi*ned LPS, !alf-nctioned d-e to t.o s!all!athe!atical !ista)es in the soft.are Si*niDcantl", Din* the s"ste! too) !ore than 1# ho-rs, and thehalf%da" &rea)do.n led to seere disr-ption of Llonass receiers, .hich aected iPhone5 -sers <hile thedisr-ption .as not ca-sed &" a!&itio-s hac)ers, it is eas" to see .h" space s"ste!s are the &rass rin* of

c"&ercri!es: he" are lo. eort and hi*h ret-rn herefore, a relati4ely simple hac canin3ict considerable damage CS; PC; ltho-*h a space s"ste! is co!posed of three

connected se*!entsMsatellites and spacecraft that or&it the earth, *ro-nd stations, and the

co!!-nication s"ste!s that lin) the t.oMcybercriminals only need to nd the4ulnerabilities in one of these segment s Nor ea!ple, for a fe. h-ndred dollars, a hac)er

can &-" a s!all Ja!!in* deice on the Internet to interfere .ith satellite si*nals “<e hae to !a)e itsatellite nai*ation s"ste!s3 !ore ro&-st,” .arned +olonel Bradford Par)inson, .ho led the creation ofthe LPS “@-r cellphone to.ers are ti!ed .ith LPS If the" lose that ti!e, the" lose s"nc and prett" soonthe" donAt operate @-r po.er *rid is s"nchroni4ed .ith LPS [and' so is o-r &an)in* s"ste!” Spaces"ste!s hae &eco!e the tar*et of hac)in* In 0-l" of last "ear, the Gnited States identiDed a 27%"ear%oldBritish citi4en .ho hac)ed a n-!&er of *oern!ent net.or)s, incl-din* 6S He atte!pted to *ra& hi*hl"

sensitie data and clai!ed he .o-ld “do so!e hilario-s st- .ith it” No-r !onths later, in 6oe!&er2$1#, ir-ses infected the co!p-ters -sed &" the International Space Station 0apanAs space a*enc" alsodiscoered a co!p-ter ir-s inside a fe. of its co!p-ters in 0an-ar" 2$12 and Ler!an"As space centerrecentl" s-ered an espiona*e attac), .ith seeral of its co!p-ters *ettin* hit .ith sp".are Since 2$$9,the BB+ has co!plained of disr-ptions to its Persian%lan*-a*e radio and teleision pro*ra!s and hasacc-sed ehran of interferin* .ith international satell ite &roadcasts &ea!ed into Iran @nl" after the CG!ade a diplo!atic co!plaint to press-re Iran to cease and desist did the attac)s stop <hen 6orth Korea

Ja!!ed So-th KoreaAs LPS si*nals in (a" 2$12, it aected the nai*ation of oer 25$ i*hts he list *oeson @ne of the reasons space s"ste!s, especiall" co!!ercial ones, are s-ch eas" pre" is that the" oftenoperate .ith o-tdated soft.are eelopin* a space s"ste! is *enerall" a lon* process that, dependin* onthe co!pleit" of the s"ste!, ta)es seeral "ears to co!plete nd once the s"ste! is operational, it isepected to last for at least seeral "earsMso!eti!es een !ore than a decade his process !a)es it



diQc-lt to -pdate the s"ste!As sec-rit" soft.are (oreoer, in !an" cases, the infor!ation s"ste!s thatare &ein* -sed to !ana*e space s"ste!s are !ostl" &ased on co!!ercial “o%the%shelf” prod-cts, .ith)no.n -lnera&ilities and lo. leels of protection, especiall" co!pared to s-pposedl" &etter%protected!ilitar" s"ste!s In 2$18, a n-!&er of thin)%tan)s, fro! the +o-ncil on Norei*n elations to Eondon%&ased+hatha! Ho-se, as .ell as the infor!ation%sec-rit" Dr! I@ctie, so-nded the alar! on ho. -lnera&le

space systems are to cyberattacs. hese reports .arned of the ease .ith .hich

&ac)doors in soft.areMan -ndetected re!ote access to a co!p-terMcan &e eploited, and of theprealence of -nsec-red soft.are, non%protected protocols, and -nencr"pted channels @ne of the st-diesA

reco!!endations .as to i!!ediatel" re!oe soft.are -pdates fro! the p-&lic .e&sites of ario-sco!panies that proide satellite serices and e-ip!ent, in order to preent hac)ers fro! reerse%en*ineerin* the so-rce code Ho.eer, despite these .arnin*s, the space ind-str" is &arel" a.are of theseris)s and its responses are slo. Herein lies a challen*e: to prod-ce and p-t into practice standards andre*-lations re*ardin* !-ltinational and co!!ercial actiities in space technolo*" and eploration



MM: :ns0ersMM



NS: Turn

The bill either 0on#t pass or faileecti4e cybersecurityreform reAuires curbing the NS:#s sur4eillance capacity

Ea.!a)ers? enth-sias! for passin* a c"&ersec-rit" &ill .ill face a !aJorh-rdle this s-!!er M 6ational Sec-rit" *enc" 6S3 refor! B" 0-ne 1,+on*ress !-st rea-thori4e the sections of the Patriot ct that are the &asisfor the 6SAs !ost controersial s-reillance pro*ra!s S-reillance concernshae ta)en a &ac) seat to c"&ersec-rit" follo.in* the dra!atic hac) on Son"and a s-&se-ent <hite Ho-se c"&er p-sh B-t !an" &eliee 6S refor!sare cr-cial &efore the centerpiece of the <hite Ho-seAs c"&ersec-rit"proposal M c"&er infor!ation sharin* &et.een the p-&lic and priate sectorM can pass +on*ress “I thin) .heneer "o- tal) a&o-t c"&er infor!ationsharin*, "o-Are *oin* to hae to address the 6S iss-e, or, !ore properl", thepriac" iss-e,” said le (annin*, .ho .as sta director of the Ho-seHo!eland Sec-rit" s-&co!!ittee on c"&ersec-rit" last +on*ress he <hite

Ho-se proposal .o-ld p-t the epart!ent of Ho!eland Sec-rit" HS3 at thecenter of a pro*ra! allo.in* the priate sector to share infor!ation a&o-tc"&er threats .ith *oern!ent a*encies, in echan*e for le*al lia&ilit"protection Ind-str" *ro-ps and intelli*ence a*encies ar*-e infor!ationechan*e is essential to &olsterin* the nationAs c"&er defenses head!inistration As HS%centered plan see)s to respond to priac" concernsa&o-t the 6S that derailed past c"&er info sharin* proposals -rin* the2$18 la!e%d-c) session, la.!a)ersA fail-re to c-r& the 6SAs s-reillancepro*ra!s .as seen as the death )nell for a c"&er info%sharin* &ill

7ecti4e NS: sur4eillance ey to pre4ent terrorist attacs Roo" 1; [0ohn ;oo, 7/1/1#, for!er GS ttorne" Leneral @Qce of Ee*al

+o-nsel ep-t" assistant, 6ational eie., “Cndin* 6S S-reillance Is 6otthe ns.er”, http://...nationalreie.co!/corner/#5$2F/endin*%nsa%s-reillance%not%ans.er%John%"oo'

$e should be careful not to put the NS: in an impossible position. @f co-rse, .e sho-ld &e i*ilant a*ainst the ad!inistratie state in all of itstan*led tendrils, especiall" its collection of taes the IS scandal3 andenforce!ent of the la.s @&a!aAs ref-sal to enforce @&a!acare andi!!i*ration la.3 The problem here" ho0e4er" is that 0e are placingthese inds of domestic la0/enforcement standards on a foreignintelligence function. <ith do!estic la. enforce!ent, .e .ant the 0-sticeepart!ent to !onitor one identiDed tar*et identiDed &eca-se other

eidence *ies pro&a&le ca-se that he or she has alread" co!!itted a cri!e3and to caref-ll" !ini!i4e an" s-reillance so as not to intr-de on priac"interestsOnce 0e impose those standards on the military and intelligenceagencies" ho0e4er" 0e are either guaranteeing failure or 0e mustaccept a certain le4el of error. If the military and intelligenceagencies had to follo0 la0/enforcement standards" their mission0ould fail because they 0ould not gi4e us any impro4ement o4er0hat the F@I could achie4e any0ay. If the intelligence community is



to detect future terrorist attacs through analy-ing electroniccommunications" 0e are asing them to search through a 4ast sea of e/mails and phone/call patterns to nd those fe0 0hich" on thesurface" loo innocent but are actually co4ert terrorist messages . If.e *ie the! &roader a-thorit", .e .o-ld hae to accept a leel of error thatis inherent in an" h-!an actiit" No intelligence agency could perform

its mission of protecting the nation#s security 0ithout maing a fe0of these inds of mistaes. he -estion is .hether there are too !an",not .hether there .ill &e an" at allo!estic la. enforce!ent !a)es these errors too Police see) .arrants forthe .ron* *-", eec-te a search in the .ron* ho-se, arrest the .ron*s-spect, and een shoot -nar!ed s-spects <e accept these !ista)es&eca-se .e -nderstand that no la.%enforce!ent s"ste! can s-ccessf-ll"protect o-r co!!-nities fro! cri!e .ith perfection he -estion is the errorrate, ho. !-ch it .o-ld cost to red-ce it, the i!pact on the eectieness ofthe pro*ra!, and the re!edies .e hae for !ista)es +onsider those-estions in the contet of the 6S s-reillance pro*ra! The moreimportant Auestion is not the top of the fraction but the bottom

not 5ust ho0 many mistaes occurred" but ho0 many records 0eresearched o4erall. If there 0ere &"=== or so mistaes" as the$ashington Post suggests" but in4ol4ing billions of communications"the error rate is 0ell less than 1 percent. <itho-t loo)in* at the latestD*-res, I s-spect that is a far lo.er error rate than those t-rned in &"do!estic police on searches and arrestsTo end the NS:#s eorts to intercept terrorist communications 0ouldbe to 0illfully blind oursel4es to the most 4aluable intelligencesources on al/8aeda no. that the president .onAt allo. the capt-re andinterro*ation of al%Vaeda leaders3 he !ore -sef-l -estion is .hether thereis a cost%eectie .a" to red-ce the error rate .itho-t detractin* fro! theeectieness of the pro*ra!, .hich, &" Leneral Keith leanderAsacco-ntin*, has &een hi*h Increasin* J-dicial oersi*ht !i*ht red-ce errorsM tho-*h I a! d-&io-s M &-t in a .a" that .o-ld serio-sl" slo. do.n thespeed of the pro*ra!, .hich is all%i!portant if the !ission is to stopterrorists nd perhaps +on*ress sho-ld thin) a&o-t .a"s to re!ed" an"priac" iolations in the f-t-re @ut to end the program because it doesnot ha4e an error rate of -ero is to impose a demand on the NS: thatno other go4ernment program" foreign or domestic" military orci4ilian" could sur4i4e.

Terrorist retaliation causes nuclear 0ar V dra0s in 2ussia

and China:yson" 1= [o&ert, Professor of Strate*ic St-dies and irector of the+entre for Strate*ic St-dies: 6e. Uealand at the =ictoria Gniersit" of<ellin*ton, 0-l", “fter a errorist 6-clear ttac): Cnisa*in* +atal"ticCects,” St-dies in +onict erroris!, =ol-!e ##, Iss-e F, aila&le @nlineto S-&scri&in* Instit-tions ia Infor!a<orld'

: terrorist nuclear attac , and een the -se of n-clear .eapons inresponse &" the co-ntr" attac)ed in the Drst place, .o-ld not necessaril"



represent the .orst of the n-clear .orlds i!a*ina&le Indeed, there arereasons to .onder .hether n-clear terroris! sho-ld eer &e re*arded as&elon*in* in the cate*or" of tr-l" eistential threats contrast can &e dra.nhere .ith the *lo&al catastrophe that .o-ld co!e fro! a !assie n-clearechan*e &et.een t.o or !ore of the soerei*n states that possess these.eapons in si*niDcant n-!&ers Cen the .orst terroris! that the t.ent"%

Drst cent-r" !i*ht &rin* .o-ld fade into insi*niDcance alon*sideconsiderations of .hat a *eneral n-clear .ar .o-ld hae .ro-*ht in the +old<ar period nd it !-st &e ad!itted that as lon* as the ma5or nuclear0eapons states ha4e hundreds and e4en thousands of nuclear0eapons at their disposal, there is al.a"s the possi&ilit" of a tr-l" a.f-ln-clear echan*e ta)in* place precipitated entirel" &" state possessorsthe!seles B-t these t.o n-clear .orldsMa non%state actor n-clear attac)and a catastrophic interstate n-clear echan*eMare not necessaril"separa&le It is J-st possi&le that so!e sort of terrorist attac), and especiall"an act of nuclear terrorism" could precipitate a chain of e4entsleading to a massi4e echange of nuclear 0eapons bet0een t0o ormore of the states that possess them. In this contet, toda"As and

to!orro.As terrorist *ro-ps !i*ht ass-!e the place allotted d-rin* the earl"+old <ar "ears to ne. state possessors of s!all n-clear arsenals .ho .ereseen as raisin* the ris)s of a catal"tic n-clear .ar &et.een the s-perpo.ersstarted &" third parties hese ris)s .ere considered in the late 195$s andearl" 19$s as concerns *re. a&o-t n-clear proliferation, the so%called nT1pro&le! t !a" re-ire a considera&le a!o-nt of i!a*ination to depict anespeciall" pla-si&le sit-ation .here an act of n-clear terroris! co-ld lead tos-ch a !assie inter%state n-clear .ar Nor ea!ple, in the eent of aterrorist n-clear attac) on the Gnited States, it !i*ht .ell &e .ondered J-stho. -ssia and/or +hina co-ld pla-si&l" &e &ro-*ht into the pict-re, not least&eca-se the" see! -nli)el" to &e Dn*ered as the !ost o&io-s statesponsors or enco-ra*ers of terrorist *ro-ps he" .o-ld see! far tooresponsi&le to &e inoled in s-pportin* that sort of terrorist &ehaior thatco-ld J-st as easil" threaten the! as .ell So!e possi&ilities, ho.eerre!ote, do s-**est the!seles Nor ea!ple, ho. !i*ht the Gnited Statesreact if it .as tho-*ht or discoered that the Dssile !aterial -sed in the act of n-clear terroris! had co!e fro! -ssian stoc)s,8$ and if for so!e reason(osco. denied an" responsi&ilit" for n-clear lait"R he correct attri&-tion of that n-clear !aterial to a partic-lar co-ntr" !i*ht not &e a case of scienceDction *ien the o&seration &" (ichael (a" et al that .hile the de&risres-ltin* fro! a n-clear eplosion .o-ld &e “spread oer a .ide area in tin"fra*!ents, its radioactiit" !a)es it detecta&le, identiDa&le and collecta&le,and a .ealth of infor!ation can &e o&tained fro! its anal"sis: the eQcienc"of the eplosion, the !aterials -sed and, !ost i!portant \ so!e indicationof .here the n-clear !aterial ca!e fro!”81 lternatiel", if the act ofn-clear terroris! came as a co!plete surprise, and :merican oQcialsref-sed to &eliee that a terrorist *ro-p .as f-ll" responsi&le or responsi&leat all3 suspicion 0ould shift immediately to state possessors -lin*o-t <estern all" co-ntries li)e the Gnited Kin*do! and Nrance, and pro&a&l"Israel and India as .ell, a-thorities in <ashin*ton .o-ld &e left .ith a er"short list consisting of North Qorea" perhaps Iran if its pro*ra! contin-es,and possi&l" Paistan B-t at .hat sta*e .o-ld 2ussia and China &e



deDnitel" r-led o-t in this hi*h sta)es *a!e of n-clear +l-edoR In partic-lar,if the act of n-clear terroris! occ-rred a*ainst a &ac)drop of eistin* tensionin <ashin*tonAs relations .ith -ssia and/or +hina, and at a ti!e .henthreats had alread" &een traded &et.een these !aJor po.ers, .o-ld oQcialsand political leaders not &e te!pted to ass-!e the .orstR @f co-rse, thechances of this occ-rrin* .o-ld onl" see! to increase if the Gnited States

.as alread" inoled in so!e sort of li!ited ar!ed conict .ith -ssia and/or+hina, or if the" .ere confrontin* each other fro! a distance in a pro" .ar,as -nli)el" as these deelop!ents !a" see! at the present ti!e There4erse might 0ell apply too: should a nuclear terrorist attac occurin 2ussia or China d-rin* a period of hei*htened tension or een li!itedconict .ith the Gnited States, co-ld (osco. and BeiJin* resist the press-resthat !i*ht rise do!esticall" to consider the Gnited States as a possi&leperpetrator or enco-ra*er of the attac)R $ashington#s earl" response to aterrorist n-clear attac) on its o.n soil !i*ht also raise the possibility of an-n.anted and nuclear aided3 confrontation 0ith 2ussia and%or China. Nor ea!ple, in the noise and confusion during the immediateaftermath of the terrorist nuclear attac , the GS president !i*ht &e

epected to place the co-ntr"As ar!ed forces, incl-din* its n-clear arsenal,on a hi*her sta*e of alert In s-ch a tense eniron!ent, .hen caref-lplannin* r-ns -p a*ainst the friction of realit", it is J-st possi&le that (osco.and/or +hina !i*ht !ista)enl" read this as a si*n of GS intentions to -seforce and possi&l" n-clear force3 a*ainst the! In that sit-ation, thete!ptations to pree!pt s-ch actions !i*ht *ro., altho-*h it !-st &ead!itted that an" pree!ption .o-ld pro&a&l" still !eet .ith a deastatin*response



@ill Fails

The bill failsIt#s merely reacti4e and doesn#t actually doanything to stop the cyberattacs against businesses in

the rst place2isen" &%; [o!, 2/#/15, technolo*" and &-siness reporter for GS 6e.s, “@&a!a?s B-d*et +an?t Ni

+orporate +"&ersec-rit",” http://...-sne.sco!/ne.s/articles/2$15/$2/$#/o&a!as%&-d*et%cant%D%corporate%c"&ersec-rit"'

President Barac) @&a!aAs Dscal 2$1 &-d*et proposal calls for ]18 &illion inspendin* on federal eorts to &olster c"&ersec-rit" and enco-ra*esle*islation to ease data sharin* &et.een the *oern!ent and the priatesector in order to -ic)l" detect and respond to online attac)s B-t that .on?t&e eno-*h to address the )e" .ea)ness of GS c"&ersec-rit" O co!paniesare not doin* eno-*h to protect their o.n net.or)s B -sinesses still need tota)e steps to preent hac)s in the Drst place, sa"s on" +ole, ice presidentand *lo&al *oern!ent chief technolo*" oQcer .ith sec-rit" Dr! NireC"e >federal data%&reach notiDcation standard .o-ld raise a.areness a&o-t theiss-e at co!panies &" !a)in* it a &i**er part of co!pan" polic", and a &illeasin* threat data sharin* co-ld &e eectie if the infor!ation .as sharedfast eno-*h in real%ti!e to preent hac)s,> +ole sa"s >he federal*oern!ent spendin* co-ld &e .ell spent if it incentii4ed co!panies to ta)eadanta*e of &etter c"&ersec-rit" serices oered &" the epart!ent ofHo!eland Sec-rit" , .hich proides net.or) sec-rit" !onitorin* thro-*hInternet serices proiders li)e =eri4on>

The bill fails to produce real change for businesses and4iolates pri4acy rights)eClaire" 1%&1 [0ennifer, 1/21/15, national sec-rit" correspondent, “<hat @&a!a (issed &o-t

+"&ersec-rit",” http://...toptechne.sco!/article/indephpRstor"Zid^$1$$$$+N#687'President Barac) @&a!a too) a !o!ent to address c"&ersec-rit" in his Stateof the Gnion address on -esda" ni*ht B-t so!e sec-rit" anal"sts didnAteactl" li)e .hat the" heard @&a!a ac)no.led*ed the headline%!a)in*hac)s a*ainst corporations li)e Son" and indiid-als, as .ell .ice he!entioned protectin* children fro! c"&erthreats >6o forei*n nation, nohac)er, sho-ld &e a&le to sh-t do.n o-r net.or)s, steal o-r trade secrets, orinade the priac" of !erican fa!ilies, especiall" o-r )ids,> he said >I -r*ethis +on*ress to Dnall" pass the le*islation .e need to &etter !eet theeolin* threat of c"&erattac)s, co!&at identit" theft, and protect eleantProd-cts/Serices o-r children?s infor!ation” (issed @pport-nit"R <eca-*ht -p .ith Ken <estin, a sec-rit" anal"st at adanced threat detection

Dr! rip.ire, to *et his tho-*hts on @&a!a?s approach to c"&ersec-rit" Hetold -s @&a!a !issed an opport-nit" to address concerns of oerreach &"o-r o.n *oern!ent and corporations .hen it co!es to protectin* citi4ens?ri*hts to priac" >He speciDcall" stated in his address that ?no forei*n nation,no hac)er, sho-ld &e a&le to sh-t do.n o-r net.or)s, steal o-r trade secrets,or inade the priac" of !erican fa!ilies? He failed to !ention ho. +ISPthe +"&er Intelli*ence Sharin* and Protection ct3 .ill protect citi4ens? datafro! a&-se &" o-r o.n *oern!ent and corporations,” <estin said >@&a!a?s-r*in* of +on*ress to pass +ISP !a" &e pre!at-re, as the" are as)in*



!ericans and priate ind-str" to share !ore data .itho-t esta&lishin**-idelines as to .hat the *oern!ent can collect in the Drst place,” <estinadded =a*-e eDnitions .a"ne (elancon, chief technolo*" oQcer at

rip.ire, told -s he has a prod-ctie idea: If the GS *oern!ent .ere to doone thin* in 2$15 that .o-ld !a)e a si*niDcant dierence in o-rc"&ersec-rit" preparedness it .o-ld &e to create a standard of d-e care that

.o-ld allo. co!panies to o&Jectiel" eal-ate their c-rrent c"&ersec-rit"inest!ents and !a)e strate*ic decisions a&o-t ho. to i!proe the! >hepro&le! is that the epectations of .hat is ?eno-*h? c"&ersec-rit" protectionare er" a*-el" deDned,> he said >In other .ords, there is no .a" for an"or*ani4ation to deter!ine if their inest!ents in c"&ersec-rit" .ill &edee!ed ?s-Qcient? to protect sensitie &-siness and c-sto!er data> In hiseperience, !an" or*ani4ational leaders thro. their hands -p in fr-stration&eca-se the" donAt )no. .here to start, and the" donAt hae c"&ersec-rit"epertise of their o.n @r*ani4ations hae an oer.hel!in* arra" of choicesaaila&le to i!proe their c"&ersec-rit" pro*ra!s, &-t the" need the criteriato ena&le the! to !a)e these inest!ent decisions, he said Proceed <ith+a-tion >6one of the epectations a&o-t c"&ersec-rit" protection are clearl"

artic-lated, and fe. co!e fro! an a-thoritatie so-rce,> (elancon said >his!eans that it?s diQc-lt for co!panies to le*all" defend the!seles in theeent of a si*niDcant &reach, and it also !a)es it diQc-lt for co!panies thathaen?t &een &reached to acc-ratel" assess &-siness ris)s> i! Crlin,director of I sec-rit" and ris) strate*" at rip.ire, oered -s these tho-*hts:“hetoric is J-st that, and the c"&ersec-rit" ind-str" as a .hole sho-ld &eca-tio-s a&o-t @&a!a?s proposals Gntil the" !a)e their .a" thro-*h the!-c) and !ire of +on*ress, the" re!ain !erel" ideas aspirin* to &eco!erealit"”



Immigration Thumper

!: fails to sol4e/ Increasing green cards is ey tocombating cyber 0ar

Gc)arty" ' [ho!as N III, President O (cEart" ssociates and Nor!er <hiteHo-se +hief of Sta and as) Norce +o%+hair, “GS I!!i*ration Polic": eportof a +N%Sponsored Independent as) Norce”, http://...cfror*/p-&lication/19F59/-sZi!!i*rationZpolic"ht!l'<e hae seen, 0hen you loo at the ta&le of the top &= rms that are *1/@4isa reAuestors" at least 1< of those are IT rms nd as .e?re seein* across

ind-str", !-ch of the hard.are and soft.are that?s -sed in this co-ntr" is not onl" !an-fact-red no.

oerseas, &-t it?s de4eloped o4erseas &" scientists and en*ineers .ho .ere ed-cated here in

the Gnited StatesW $e?re seeing a lot more acti4ity around cyber/security"certainly note.orth" attac s here 4ery recently It?s &eco!in* an increasin*l" do!inantset of re-ire!ents across not onl" to the epart!ent of efense, &-t the epart!ent of Ho!eland

Sec-rit" and the critical infrastr-ct-re that?s held in priate hands $as there any discussion

or an" interest fro! @ or HS as "o- -ndertoo) this reie. on the sec-rit" things about 0hat

can be done to tr" to generate a more eecti4e group of IT epertshere in the United States, many of 0hich are coming to the U.S.institutions, acade!ic instit-tions from o4erseas and often returning bacZThis potentiall" puts us at a competiti4e disad4antage *oin* for.ardW (+E;:

;es nd I thin) "o-r -estion lar*el" is the ans.er as .ell I !ean, clearly 0e ha4e lesstalented students here studying %% or p-t another .a", !ore talented students

st-d"in* in other co-ntries that are *ifted, talented, reall" ha4e a tremendous ability tode4elop these ind of technology and scientic ad4ances , .e?re *oin* to &e

p-t at an increasin*l" disadanta*e <here if the" co!e here %% and I )ind of lie r Eand?s approach of

the green card being handed to them or caref-ll" p-t in their &illfold or p-rse as the"

*rad-ate %% then, o&io-sl", that?s going to strengthen, I thin), o-r s"ste!, oursecurity needs







N:S:



Topshelf



1NC

Obama is pushing for a big budget increase for N:S: tosend astronauts to Gars" but Congress is pushing bac

:mos" &%; [0onathan, 2/#/15, Science +orrespondent for BB+, “@&a!aSee)s to aise 6asa N-ndin*,” http://...&&cco!/ne.s/science%eniron!ent%#111#21'GS President Barac) @&a!a has re-ested ]175&n _12#&n3 to r-n theco-ntr"?s ciil space a*enc", 6asa, in the Niscal ;ear 2$1 hat .o-ldrepresent a ]519! increase on that enacted for N;2$15 he president callsonce a*ain for a &i* J-!p in f-ndin* for the co!!ercial pro*ra!!e that ai!sto *et !erica la-nchin* its o.n astrona-ts a*ain B-t the re-est .o-ldalso end Dnancial s-pport for the enera&le (ars roer @pport-nit" s eer,the proposals are not Ded -ntil a*reed .ith +on*ress , and the politicians on+apitol Hill al.a"s insist on so!e chan*es, increasin* so!e &-d*et lines.hilst red-cin* others his has certainl" &een the case in recent "ears .ith

the co!!ercial cre. pro*ra!!e, for .hich +on*ress has repeatedl" deniedthe re-ested f-ndin* 6asa has contracted the Boein* and Spaceco!panies to deelop caps-le s"ste!s to ferr" astrona-ts to and fro! thespace station, .ith 2$1F &ein* their li)el" entr" into serice o )eep thissched-le on trac), the <hite Ho-se sa"s 6asa .ill need ]128&n in N;2$1, a!ore than 5$` increase on the ]7$5! it receied in 2$15 he lon*er thepro*ra!!e is dela"ed &" a f-nds shorta*e, the lon*er !erica .ill hae topa" the !ore epensie seat prices &ein* char*ed &" -ssia c-rrentl" to taiall nationsA astrona-ts in its So"-4 roc)ets and caps-les Carth record hefriction .ith +on*ress on this !atter -s-all" inoles the a!o-nt of !one"allocated for 6asaAs o.n deep%space roc)et and caps-le, )no.n as the SpaceEa-nch S"ste! and @rion , respectiel" hese co!ponents are .hat the

a*enc" .o-ld -se to send astrona-ts to destinations s-ch as asteroids and(ars n -n!anned test la-nch of the pair is no. seen to occ-r no earlierthan late 2$17 he N;2$1 re-est is for ]28&n, a&o-t ]#85! do.n on.hat it is c-rrentl" &ein* spent he leadin* s-pporters in +on*ress of theset.o initiaties are alread" !a)in* their dissatisfaction )no.n !on* otherhi*hli*hts, the ne. &-d*et re-est calls for an “i!!ediate initiation” of ane. Eandsat spacecraft

((Insert )in *ere++

)ac of N:S: funding causes ha4oc in critical spacemissions and our eorts at space coloni-ation.*ar4ey 1& alph P, associate professor of Carth, Cniron!ental andPlanetar" Sciences, +ase <estern esere Gniersit", $81812, “Spaceeploration &-d*et c-ts .o-ld doo! f-t-re !issions: alph P Hare",“http://...cleelandco!/opinion/indessf/2$12/$8/spaceZeplorationZ&-d*etZc-tsht!l, ccessed $F$183//EIn *eneral, o-r *oern!ent *ets this <e all )no. space eploration can?t &e cheap, &-tstead", !odest s-pport %% in *ood econo!ic ti!es and &ad %% has broughtenormous positi4e returns Continuing support for planetar" sciences has



maintained our epertise and technological leadership It has also allo.ed -s to send

roers to (ars to discoer incredi&le eidence of that planet?s past ha&ita&ilit" to capt-re co!etar" d-st and &rin* it &ac) to Carth to .itness.ater *e"sers er-ptin* on Sat-rn?s !oon Cncelad-s and do do4ens of other a&sol-tel" incredi&le thin*s, all challen*in* and inspirin*, that no

other nation has done l!ost as a!a4in* is that these incredi&le discoeries, so deDnin* of o-r co-ntr"?s technolo*ical

epertise, are s-pported &" a tin" fraction of the federal &-d*et %% a&o-t fo-r h-ndredths of one

percentW Gnfort-natel", this may all change if .e don?t ta)e action he ad!inistration?s proposed &-d*et for the 2$1#

Dscal "ear %% no. in front of Congress // includes a deastatin* 2$ percent cut to planetary

funding. c-t of that scale 0ill eliminate se4eral Gars missions " brea

international agreements that Jointl" s-pport other !issions" eli!inate an" lar*e%scale

>a*ship> !issions for the foreseea&le f-t-re and force us to abandon

any plans to eplore the potential habitability of the B0ater moonsB

C-ropa and Cncelad-s" circlin* 0-piter and Sat-rnW <h" is it so i!portant to D thisR +an?t planetar" eploration handle

a little of the econo!ic hardship the rest of -s are dealin* .ithR ns.erin* this re-ires appreciation of t.o factsW Nirst is that the proposedc-t is h-*el" disproportionate <hile other a*encies are &ein* as)ed to sta" the co-rse or slo. their *ro.th, planetar" eploration is hain* its

*-ts c-t o-t, .ith see!in*l" little re*ard for its etraordinar" lon*%ter! al-eW Second, for planetar" !issions li)e !an"

thin*s in life3, timing is e4erything. @pport-nities to econo!icall" la-nchspacecraft to (ars, a relatiel" close planet, co!e &" eer" t.o "ears Opportunities tolaunch to0ard outer planets, .here spacecraft !a" need a little *raitational assist fro! other planets to *et

there, come along on decadal or een century time scales Si!ilarl", "o- can?t s.itch a (ars roer &ac)

on once "o-?e t-rned it o and allo.ed it to *o coldW In a n-tshell, turning o funding no., e4en if you

mean to replace it in the net budget" is liely to ill rather than dela" any

t"pical planetary pro5ect . It is the e-ialent of ain* a far!er?s &-d*et in plantin* season een if "o- restore that

f-ndin* !id%s-!!er, the harest J-st isn?t *oin* to &e there

Space coloni-ation is ey to human sur4i4al.Schul-e/Gauch and !a4ies L1= ir) Ph, School of Carth andCniron!ental Sciences at <ashin*ton State Gniersit" Pa-l, Ph, Be"ond+enter at ri4ona State Gniersit", >o Boldl" Lo: @ne%<a" H-!an (issionto (ars>, @ct/6o, http://Jo-rnalofcos!olo*"co!/(ars1$7ht!l, +(3

here are seeral reasons that !otiate the esta&lish!ent of a per!anent (ars colon" $e are a4ulnerable species liin* in a part of the *ala" 0here cosmic e4entssuch as ma5or asteroid and co!et impacts and superno4a eplosionspose a signicant threat to life on 7arth, especiall" to h-!an life here arealso !ore i!!ediate threats to o-r c-lt-re, if not o-r s-rial as a species heseincl-de *lo&al pande!ics, n-clear or &iolo*ical .arfare, r-na.a" *lo&al .ar!in*,

s-dden ecolo*ical collapse and s-perolcanoes ees 2$$83 h-s, the

coloni-ation of other 0orlds is a must if the human species is to

sur4i4e for the long term he Drst potential coloni4ation tar*ets .o-ld &e asteroids, the

(oon and (ars he (oon is the closest o&Ject and does proide so!e shelter e*, laa t-&e caes3, &-tin all other respects falls short co!pared to the ariet" of reso-rces aaila&le on (ars he latter is tr-e for

asteroids as .ell Gars is &" far the most promising for sustainedcoloni-ation and de4elopment" because it is similar in many respectsto 7arth and , cr-ciall", possesses a moderate surface gra4ity" anatmosphere" abundant 0ater and carbon dioide" together 0ith arange of essential minerals (ars is o-r second closest planetar" nei*h&or after =en-s3 and

a trip to (ars at the !ost faora&le la-nch option ta)es a&o-t si !onths .ith c-rrent che!ical roc)ettechnolo*"



&NC O,Obama is pushing to increase the budget for N:S:. Thebudget line specically is for getting people to Gars"0hich is the crucial rst step to a 4iable method of

coloni-ation" 0hich 0ill rst be to Gars" then to 7uropaand further. )oss of funding increase destroys eecti4ecoloni-ation

That out0eighs and turns the case61/ There#s no 0ay the a can guarantee security from

all earthly etinction threats. $hether it#s terrorismor asteroids" there 0ill al0ays be threats. Onlyspace coloni-ation can ensure the pre4ention ofetinction

&/ Failure to ha4e space colonies maes e4ery aimpact 0orse/ nuclear 0inter maes things lie foodscarcity ine4itable. Only contingency plans sol4e



&NC U8 $all

Obama is proposing a funding bill for N:S: that is criticalto Gartian eploration" but Congress 0ants to slash the

budget furtherQremer" &% [Ken, 2/8/15, spea)er, research scientist, freelance science Jo-rnalist, and

photo*rapher for the +hristian Science (onitor, “@&a!a .ants ]175 &illion for 6S <hat .o-ld that&-"R” http://...cs!onitorco!/Science/2$15/$2$8/@&a!a%.ants%175%&illion%for%6S%<hat%.o-ld%that%&-"'

he @&a!a d!inistration toda" Ne& 23 proposed a 6S &-d*et allocationof ]175 Billion for the ne. Niscal ;ear 2$1, .hich a!o-nts to a half%&illiondollar increase oer the enacted &-d*et for N; 2$15, and )eeps the )e"!anned caps-le and hea" lift roc)et pro*ra!s on trac) to la-nch h-!ans todeep space in the net decade and si*niDcantl" s-pple!ents the co!!ercialcre. initiatie to send o-r astrona-ts to lo. Carth or&it and the space stationlater this decade 6S d!inistrator +harles Bolden for!all" anno-nced therollo-t of 6SAs N; 2$1 &-d*et re-est toda" d-rin* a “state of the

a*enc"” address at the Kenned" Space +enter KS+3, &ac) dropped &" thethree ehicles at the core of the a*enc"As h-!an spacei*ht eplorationstrate*" @rion, the Boein* +S%1$$ and the Space ra*on “o f-rtheradance these plans and )eep on !oin* for.ard on o-r Jo-rne" to (ars,President @&a!a toda" is proposin* a n N; 2$1 &-d*et of ]175 &illion for6S, &-ildin* on the si*niDcant inest!ents the ad!inistration has !ade in!ericaAs space pro*ra! oer the past si "ears,” d!inistrator Bolden saidto 6S .or)ers and the !edia *athered at the KS+ facilit" .here @rion is&ein* !an-fact-red “hese ehicles are not thin*s J-st on paper an"!oreb

his is tan*i&le eidence of .hat "o- [6S' hae &een doin* these past fe."ears” Bolden said the ]175 Billion &-d*et re-est .ill ena&le thecontin-ation of core ele!ents of 6SAs !ain pro*ra!s incl-d in* Drst la-nch

of the ne. co!!ercial cre. ehicles to or&it in 2$1F, !aintainin* the @rioncaps-le and the Space Ea-nch S"ste! SES3 roc)et to f-rther 6SAsinitiatie to send XH-!ans to (arsA in the 2$#$s , etendin* the InternationalSpace Station ISS3 into the net decade, and la-nchin* the 0a!es <e&&Space elescope in 2$17 0<S is the lon* a.aited s-ccessor to 6SAsH-&&le Space elescope “6S is Dr!l" on a Jo-rne" to (ars (a)e no!ista)e, this Jo-rne" .ill help *-ide and deDne o-r *eneration” N-ndin* isalso proided to ena&le the !anned steroid edirect (ission (3 &"aro-nd 2$25, to contin-e deelop!ent of the net (ars roer, and tocontin-e for!-lation st-dies of a ro&otic !ission to 0-piterAs ic" !oonC-ropa “hatAs a half &illion%dollar increase oer last "earAs enacted &-d*et,and it is a clear ote of conDdence in "o- O the e!plo"ees of 6S O and thea!&itio-s eploration pro*ra! "o- are eec-tin*,” said Bolden @erall theadditional ]5$$ !illion for N; 2$1 translates to a 2F` increase oer N;2$15 hat co!pares to a&o-t a 8` proposed &oost for the oerall GSNederal B-d*et a!o-ntin* to ]8 rillion he Boein* +S%1$$ and the Spacera*on =2 .ill restore the GS capa&ilit" to ferr" astrona-ts to and fro! theInternational Space Station ISS3 In Septe!&er 2$18, Bolden anno-nced theselections of Boein* and Space to contin-e deelop!ent and certiDcation of their proposed spaceships -nder 6SAs +o!!ercial +re. Pro*ra! ++P3



and Ea-nch !erica initiatie started &ac) in 2$1$ Since the retire!ent ofthe Space Sh-ttle pro*ra! in 2$11, all 6S astrona-ts hae &een totall"dependent on -ssia and their So"-4 caps-le as the sole so-rce proider forseats to the ISS “he co!!ercial cre. ehicles are a&sol-tel" critical to o-r

Jo-rne" to (ars , a&sol-tel" critical Space and Boein* hae set -poperations here on the Space +oast, &rin*in* Jo&s, ener*" and ecite!ent

a&o-t the f-t-re .ith the! he" .ill increase cre. safet" and drie do.ncosts” ++P *ets a heft" and needed increase fro! ]7$5 (illion in N; 2$15 to]1288 Billion in N; 2$1 o date the +on*ress has not f-ll" f-nded thed!inistrationAs ++P f-ndin* re-ests, since its inception in 2$1$ hesi*niDcant &-d*et slashes a!o-ntin* to 5$` or !ore &" +on*ress, haeforced 6S to dela" the Drst co!!ercial cre. i*hts of the priate XspacetaisA fro! 2$15 to 2$1F s a res-lt, 6S has also &een forced to contin-epa"in* the -ssians for cre. i*hts a&oard the So"-4 that no. cost oer ]F$!illion each -nder the latest contract si*ned .ith oscos!os, the -ssianNederal Space *enc" Bolden has repeatedl" stated that 6SAs oerridin**oal is to send astrona-ts to (ars in the 2$#$s o acco!plish the X0o-rne" to(arsA 6S is deelopin* the @rion deep space cre. caps-le and !a!!oth

SES roc)et Ho.eer, &oth pro*ra!s had their &-d*ets c-t in the N; 2$1proposal co!pared to N; 2$15 he 2$15 co!&ined total of ]#285 Billion isred-ced in 2$1 to ]27# Billion, or oer 1$` he Drst test i*ht of an-n!anned @rion atop the SES is no. slated for lifto on 6o 2$17, follo.in*6SAs anno-nce!ent of a la-nch dela" fro! the prior tar*et of ece!&er2$1F Since the 0o-rne" to (ars *oal is alread" -nderf-nded, si*niDcant c-ts.ill hinder pro*ress



PC Qey

Obama#s push is ey to get the bill passed in an eecti4eform

InAuisitr &% [2/8/15, “s @&a!a and +on*ress Ni*ht @er etails, 6S isLoin* to C-ropa,” http://...in-isitrco!/171#19F/as%o&a!a%and%con*ress%D*ht%oer%details%nasa%is%*oin*%to%e-ropa/'President @&a!a As ad!inistration has proposed a total of ]175 &illion inf-ndin* for 6S, for the Niscal ;ear 2$1 O .hich constit-tes an increase of]519 !illion in f-ndin* fro! the Niscal ;ear 2$15 <hile the speciDc details ofthe .a" that f-ndin* .ill &rea) do.n hae "et to &e a*reed -pon &"+on*ress O a process .hich -s-all" res-lts in chan*es for indiid-al !issionsand proJects O the oerall increase indicates a rene.ed p-sh for spaceeploration and science, as h-!anit" contin-es to p-sh f-rther into the solars"ste! he ann-al &-d*et proposals for 6S hae historicall" feat-redhard%fo-*ht ne*otiations &et.een the <hite Ho-se and +on*ress O each

see!in* to hae dierent priorities he BB+ reports that preio-s "ears haeseen +on*ress repeatedl" den" f-ndin* re-ests for the co!!ercial cre.pro*ra!, .ith the space a*enc" left to contract o-t the deelop!ent of acaps-le s-ita&le for the transportation of astrona-ts to the InternationalSpace Station to Boein* and Space +-rrentl", the GS pa"s for itsastrona-ts to &e ferried there and &ac) &" the -ssian So"-4 roc)et andcaps-les Ho.eer, +on*ress re*-larl" places *reater e!phasis on planetar"science O tho-*h the c-rrent proposals &" the @&a!a ad!inistration .o-ldred-ce that f-ndin* &" an esti!ated ]F !illion in co!parison to the leel-lti!atel" a*reed to &" +on*ress in 2$15 s reported &" he Eos n*eles

i!es, ep da! B Schi %B-r&an)3 is hopef-l that an a*ree!ent can &ereached “I thin) the ad!inistrationAs !oin* in the ri*ht direction, &-t still

has a lon* .a" to *o ItAs a &etter &-d*et in !an" respects than .hat thead!inistration proposed in the past, altho-*h itAs still not at the leel that+on*ress approed een last "ear”



Impact6 2esource $ars

Space access sol4es ine4itable global resource 0arsCollins and :utino" = [r Patric) +ollins, an eceptionall" .ell )no.n

and respected a-thorit" on space econo!ics, space to-ris!, re-sa&le la-nchehicles, and space solar po.er, professor of econo!ics at 4a&- Gniersit"in 0apan, 6 driano -tino, President of Space enaissance International,><hat the Lro.th of a Space o-ris! Ind-str" +o-ld +ontri&-te toC!plo"!ent, Ccono!ic Lro.th, Cniron!ental Protection, Cd-cation, +-lt-reand <orld Peace>, @ri*inall" presented at Plenar" Session of the Internationalcade!" of strona-tics? 1st S"!posi-! on Priate H-!an ccess to Space,rcachon, Nrance, 25%27 (a" 2$$7,http://...spacef-t-reco!/archie/.hatZtheZ*ro.thZofZaZspaceZto-ris!Zind-str"Zco-ldZcontri&-teZtoZe!plo"!entZecono!icZ*ro.thZeniron!entalZprotectionZed-cationZc-lt-reZandZ.orldZpeacesht!l, Can'F <orld peace and preseration of h-!an ciilisation The ma5or source of social

friction" including international friction" has surely al0ays beenuneAual access to resources . People ght to control the 4aluable

resources on and under the land" and in and under the sea The

natural resources of 7arth are limited in Auantity" and economicallyaccessible resources e4en more so. :s the population gro0s, and de!and

*ro.s for a hi*her !aterial standard of liin*, industrial acti4ity gro0s eponentially.The threat of resources becoming scarce has led to the concept of B2esource $arsB Hain* &e*-n lon* a*o .ith .ars to control the *old and dia!onds of frica and

So-th !erica, and oil in the (iddle Cast, the c-rrent phase is at centre sta*e of .orld eents toda" [#F'

partic-lar dan*er of >reso-rce .ars> is that" if the general public can be

persuaded to support them" they may become impossible to stop as

resources become increasingly scarce (an" co!!entators hae noted the si!ilarit"

of the lan*-a*e of GS and GK *oern!ent adocates of >.ar on terror> to the lan*-a*e of the noel

>1978> .hich descri&es a dystopian future of endless" fraudulent 0ar in

0hich citi-ens are reduced to sla4es F1 7pansion into near/7arth

space is the only alternati4e to endless Bresource 0arsB s an

alternati4e to the Bresource 0arsB already de4astating manycountries today" opening access to the unlimited resources of near/

7arth space could clearly facilitate 0orld peace and security he GS

6ational Sec-rit" Space @Qce, at the start of its report on the potential of space%&ased solar po.er SSP3

p-&lished in earl" 2$$F, stated: >7panding human populations and decliningnatural resources are potential sources of local and strategic con3ictin the &1st Century" and many see energy as the foremost threat to

national security> [#7' he report ended &" enco-ra*in* -r*ent research on the feasi&ilit" of

SSP: >Considering the timescales that are in4ol4ed, and the eponential *ro.th of

pop-lation and reso-rce press-res .ithin that sa!e strate*ic period, it is imperati4e that this0or for Bdrilling upB 4s. drilling do0n for energy security beginsimmediately> [#7' :lthough the use of etra/terrestrial resources on asubstantial scale may still be some decades a0ay" it is important to

recognise that simply acno0ledging its feasibility using no0n

technology is the surest 0ay of ending the threat of resource 0ars



hat is, if it is assumed that the resources a4ailable for human use arelimited to those on 7arth" then it can be argued that resource 0arsare inescapable [22,#F' If , &" contrast, it is assumed that the resources of space are economically accessible" this not only eliminates the needfor resource 0ars " it can also preser4e the benets of ci4ilisation0hich are being eroded today by Bresource 0ar/mongersB" !ost nota&l"

the *oern!ents of the >n*lo%Saon> co-ntries and their >neo%con> adisers It is also .orth notin* thatthe ]1 trillion that these hae alread" co!!itted to .ars in the (iddle%Cast in the 21st cent-r" is orders of !a*nit-de !ore than the p-&lic inest!ent needed to aid co!panies s-Qcientl" to start the co!!ercial

-se of space reso-rces Industrial and nancial groups 0hich prot frommonopolistic control of terrestrial supplies of 4arious naturalresources, li)e those .hich proDt fro! .ars, ha4e an economic interest inprotecting their protable situation. *o0e4er" these groups?continuing prots are 5ustied neither by capitalism nor bydemocracy6 they could be preser4ed only by maintaining thepretence that use of space resources is not feasible" and bypre4enting the de4elopment of lo0/cost space tra4el Once thefeasibility of lo0/cost space tra4el is understood" Bresource 0arsB

are clearly foolish as 0ell as tragic isitin* etra%terrestrial .o-ld &e pit"in*l"a!-sed at the foolish antics of ho!o sapiens -sin* lon*ran*e roc)ets to D*ht each other oer d.indlin*terrestrial reso-rcesMrather than -sin* the sa!e roc)ets to trael in space and hae the -se of all thereso-rces the" needb



Coloni-ation Possible

Its feasible V 0e can do it 0ith current tech and buildsustainable li4ing

Schul-e/Gauch and !a4ies 1= % Ph at School of Carth andCniron!ental Sciences, <ashin*ton State Gniersit" and Ph at ri4onaState Gniersit" ir), and Pa-l, “o Boldl" Lo: @ne%<a" H-!an (ission to

(ars” http://Jo-rnalofcos!olo*"co!/(ars1$7ht!l3

: human mission to Gars is undoubtedly technologically feasible, but

unliely to lift o in the 4ery near future" because of the enormous

nancial and political commitments associated 0ith it. s re!ar)ed,

ho.eer, much of the costs and payload of the mission are associated

0ith bringing the astronauts bac to 7arth N-rther!ore, the returning

astronauts 0ould ha4e to go through an intense rehabilitation

program after being eposed for at least one year to -ero gra4ity and

an etended period to red-ced *rait" on the s-rface of (ars 7liminating the need forreturning early colonists 0ould cut the costs se4eral fold and at the

same time ensure a continuous commitment to the eploration of

Gars and space in general. he Drst colonists to Gars 0ouldn#t go in

Bcold.B o&otic probes sent on ahead 0ould establish necessities such as an

ener*" so-rce s-ch as a s!all n-clear reactor a-*!ented &" solar panels3, enough food for

t0o years, the &asics for creatin* ho!e%*ro.n a*ric-lt-re, one or !ore roer ehicles and a tool%)it

for carr"in* o-t essential en*ineerin* and !aintenance .or) In addition, the scientiDc e-ip!ent needed

for the colonists to do i!portant research .or) sho-ld &e part of the precedin* -n!anned [-nstaed'

!ission :ll this eAuipment could easily be put into place using current

technology before the astronauts set out. The rst human

contingent 0ould rely hea4ily on resources that can be producedfrom Gars such as 0ater" nutrients" and shelter s-ch as in for! of laa t-&e

caes3 he" also .o-ld &e contin-o-sl" res-pplied fro! Carth .ith necessities that co-ld not &e prod-ced

fro! the reso-rces aaila&le on (ars his se!i%a-tono!o-s phase !i*ht last for decades, perhaps een

cent-ries &efore the si4e and sophistication of the (ars colon" ena&led it to &e self%s-stainin* he Drst

h-!an contin*ent .o-ld consist of a cre. of fo-r, ideall" and if the &-d*et per!its3 distri&-ted &et.een

t.o t.o%!an space craft to allo. for so!e !ission red-ndanc" s-ch as in the =i)in* !ission or for the

(ars Cploration oers lso, if an" technical !alf-nction occ-rs on one space craft, the other craft co-ld

co!e to the resc-e N-rther, an" critical part of e-ip!ent after landin* .o-ld &e aaila&le in d-plicate in

case of an e!er*enc" : one/0ay human mission to Gars 0ould not be a

one/time commitment as 0as the case 0ith the :pollo program.

Gore than = years after the last :pollo mission" no human has set

foot on a planetary body beyond 7arth. Such a hiatus cannot be

aorded if humanity is to commit to a grander 4ision of spaceeploration aies and Sch-l4e%(a)-ch 2$$7 Sch-l4e%(a)-ch and Ir.in 2$$73 No base on

the Goon is needed to launch a one/0ay human mission to Gars.

Ei4en the broad 4ariety of resources a4ailable on Gars" the long/

term sur4i4al of the rst colonists is much more feasible than it

0ould be on the Goon.



Gars coloni-ation is possible the resources are there andthe en4ironment is suitable*ender 1= O Gniersit" of delaide, School of (echanical Cn*ineerin*

(atthe. “+oloni4ation: a per!anent ha&itat for the coloni4ation of (ars”

http://di*italli&rar"adelaideed-a-/dspace/handle/288$/1#15

It has been demonstrated" through numerous measurements"obser4ations and in4estigations" that Gars contains all of theessential elements for the maintenance of life and sustenance of anestablished habitat =irt-all" e4ery region of Gars has been proposedas being suitable for locating a habitat, fro! the poles to the e-ator, a&oe or &elo.

*ro-nd, each 0ith its o0n ad4antages and disad4antages, and each &ein* ia&le

for ario-s proposed desi*ns e*ional characteristics, s-ch as te!perat-re, .ind speed, dist stor!s and*ro-nd conditions !-st all &e considered in an" desi*n Partic-larl", a rene.a&le s-ppl" of .ater isessential N-rther, the !ethod, and !aterials, or fa&rication !-st &e considered -tili4in* local !aterials,or i!ported constr-cted or inated, also considerin* thin*s s-ch as radiation protection, safet", liin*

space, ins-lation, ease and speed of ins-lation and red-ndanc" Facilities reAuired in thehabitat include those necessary foe li4ing" recreation and 0oring.

)i4ing facilities include life support systems" sleeping en4ironments"meal preparation and ablution facilities and other such areas.

ecreational facilities incl-de lo-n*e and readin* areas, entertain!ent facilities and other s-ch facilities toallo. relaation and diersional actiities <or)in* facilities .ill incl-de la&oratories, oQce space,

ind-strial areas po.er *eneration, etc3 .or)shops, food and other prod-ction areas Po0er supplyoptions on Gars are many ependin* -pon the po.er de!and of facilities, .hich aries .ith

the pop-lation and ind-strial re-ire!ents Nuclear is considered to be the mist4iable" due to the reliability and the po0er generation capability,

ho.eer, this .ill re-ire res-ppl" of n-clear f-el, la-nched fro! Carth, and has eniron!ental and safet"

considerations associated Solar s-rface or or&ital3, 0ind and possible geothermalenergy sources appear to be reliable and 4iable systems of po0ersupply" although each has its dra0bacs. @ptions for po.er stora*e !-st also &e

considered, incl-din* f-el cells or nat-ral *as s-ch stora*e of po.er is thro-*h the !an-fact-re of thef-el, h"dro*en or !ethane, respectiel"3 C!er*enc" po.er *eneration, thro-*h !echanical h-!an%

po.ered3 or other !eans, !-st also &e proided :ll signicant materials reAuired tosupport life and industry are belie4ed to eist on Gars. Processes formining" etraction or concentration" as may be reAuired must bede4eloped and pro4en" ho0e4er" this is considered feasible.2ene0able 0ater and atmosphere constituent sources areconsidered critical" as are nutrients necessary for the production offood.



Space Col Eood

The alternati4e to space coloni-ation is etinction.Gultiple scenarios 0ould destroy humanind unless 0e

epand into space.Eangale" > [ho!as, aerospace en*ineer and a for!er ir Norce oQcerHe is c-rrentl" the eec-tie director at @PS%las)a, a thin) tan) &ased inPetal-!a “ Pro*ressie =ision of H-!an Space Cploration%%I!portant to+alifornia, a Eeader in erospace and Hi*h ech,” 12/$8,http://...californiapro*ressreportco!/site/node/#822/'+iili4ations hae risen, fallen, and in ti!e others hae risen in their place, &-t this ti!e the sta)es are

*reater If , for so!e reason, our technological ci4ili-ation should collapse"either because of nuclear 0ar" pandemic" climate change" cosmicimpact" or resource depletion" 0e can ne4er pass this 0ay again 6o

preio-s c-lt-re has &een the !assie cons-!er of non%rene.a&le reso-rces that o-rs is Cach decadethat passes, .e !-st di* deeper and drill farther to etract the !aterials that f-el the Lreat (achine headance of technolo*" contin-all" etends o-r reach for these reso-rces, &-t these adanced !ethods

.o-ld &e far &e"ond the *rasp of a post%apocal"ptic a*rarian c-lt-re tr"in* to !a)e another *o of it <hat.e thin) of as non%rene.a&le reso-rces act-all" are rene.a&le, of co-rse on a *eolo*ic ti!e scale Eeft toitself, the Carth .o-ld a*ain for! s-&terranean pools of petrole-! nother Ind-strial eol-tion !i*ht &epossi&le on this planet, &-t onl" for a species as far re!oed fro! -s in the f-t-re as the trilo&ites are in

o-r past Our ci4ili-ation has the one and only chance the human race0ill e4er ha4e to reach beyond this planet and establish itself

else0here in the uni4erse . If 0e miss this opportunity" our species

0ill be bound to the 7arth until 0e become etinct. If" on the other

hand" 0e sur4i4e the 4arious threats to the progress of technologicalci4ili-ation" 0e 0ill see a branching of the human timeline. *umans0ill go to li4e and 0or indenitely on orbiting space platforms" inlunar settlements" on Gars" and then out to the planet/si-ed moons

of the gas giants he process of inha&itin* and thriin* in eer !ore etre!e eniron!ents isthe nat-ral etension of the cold.ard co-rse of pro*ress, the process &" .hich h-!ans left their tropical

ho!e%of%ori*in and ent-red into the te!perate and polar 4ones The eperience the solarsystem eplorers" pioneers" and settlers 0ill gain 0ill pa4e the 0ayto the stars and beyond s isionar" scientist +arl Sa*an 19953 pointed o-t, this *ets the

h-!an e**s o-t of the sin*le &as)et in ter!s of an" sort of catastrophic !ass etinction eent It also *etso-r e**s o-t of the &as)et in ter!s of the nat-ral processes of passie etinction, .here .e lose so !-ch*enetic i*or that .e can no lon*er cope .ith o-r constantl" chan*in* sin*le planetar" eniron!entBeca-se of the distances inoled alone, not to !ention the eects of .holl" ne. planetar" eniron!ents,in Jo-rne"in* o-t.ard .e set in !otion ne. speciation and dierentiation of the Ho!o sapiens line Nor o-r

species to s-rie, .e !-st di-se into the cos!os $e must engage the granden4ironment" and 0ho can say for ho0 long our 0indo0 of opportunity 0ill remain openR

Space coloni-ation ey to pre4ent tech stagnation"tyranny" 0ar" and genocide V need access to moreresources to pre4ent con3ict9ubrin 11 o&ert, aerospace en*ineer, 0-ne 2$11, “he +ase for (ars:

he Plan to Settle the ed Planet and <h" <e (-st”, Gpdated and eisedCdition, ccessed $F$F183//E he tendenc" to.ard cultural homogeni-ation on 7arth can only W accelerate inthe t0enty/rst century N-rther!ore, because of rapid W communication and



transportation technologies shorting out inter/W cultural barriers" it0ill become increasingly impossible to obtain the W degree ofseparation reAuired to de4elop ne0 and dierent cultures onW Carth If theGartian frontier is opened, ho.eer, this sa!e process ofW technolo*ical adance 0ill also enable us toestablish a ne0" distinct"W and dynamic branch of human culture on (ars

and eent-all" !oreW on .orlds &e"ond he precio-s diersit" of h-!anit" can th-s &e pre%W sered on a &roader Deld, &-t onl" on a &roader

Deld One 0orld 0ill W be 5ust too small a domain to allo0 thepreser4ation and continued generation of the di4ersity needed not J-st to

)eep life interestin*, &-t to W assure the sur4i4al of the human race W <itho-t the openin* of a ne.

frontier on (ars, continued $estern ci4ili-ation also faces the ris oftechnological stagnation o so!eW this !a" appear to &e an odd state!ent, as the present a*e is fre-entl"W cited

as one of technolo*ical .onders In fact, ho.eer, the rate of W progress 0ithin our society hasbeen decreasing and at an alarming rate W o see this, it is onl" necessar" to step &ac) and

co!pare the chan*esW that hae occ-rred in the past thirt"%De "ears .ith those that occ-rredW in the precedin* thirt"%De "ears and thethirt"%De "ears &efore thatW Bet.een 19$5 and 198$ the .orld .as reol-tioni4ed: +ities .ereW electriDed .ashin* !achines andrefri*erators appeared telephonesW and &roadcast radio &eca!e co!!on ho!e stereos .ere &orn tal)%W in* !otion pict-res &losso!ed intoa *rand ne. art for! a-to!o&iles &eca!e practical and aiation pro*ressed fro! the <ri*ht Nl"erW to the +%# and Ha.)er H-rricaneBet.een 198$ and 19F5 the .orldW chan*ed a*ain, .ith the introd-ction of co!p-ters, teleision, anti&iotics, n-clear po.er, Boein* F2Fs, S%F1s, tlas, itan, and Sat-rn roc)ets, co!!-nication satellites, interplanetar" spacecraft, and pilotedW o"a*es to the (oon

Compared to these changes" the technologicalW inno4ations from1'>< to the present seem insignicant. ImmenseW changes should

ha4e occurred d-rin* this period, but did not. HadW .e &een follo.in* the preio-s seent" "ears technolo*ical

traJector",W .e toda" .o-ld hae "in* cars, !a*le !a*netic leitation3 trains,W ro&ots, f-sion reactors, h"personic intercontinental trael,relia&le andW inepensie transportation to Carth or&it, -ndersea cities, open%seaW !aric-lt-re, and h-!an settle!ents on the (oon and (ars

Instead,W today 0e see important technological de4elopments" such asnuclearW po0er and biotechnology" being bloced or enmeshed incontro4ersy W 0e are slo0ing do0n W 6o., consider a nascent Gartianci4ili-ation: Its f-t-re 0ill depend W critically upon the progress of scienceand technology 0-st as the inentions prod-ced &" the necessities of frontier !erica .ere a po.erf-lW driin* force on

.orld.ide h-!an pro*ress in the nineteenth cent-r", so the >Gartian ingenuityB born in a culturethat puts the utmostW premium on intelligence" practical education"and the determinationW reAuired to mae real contributions 0ill maemuch more than its fairW share of the scientic and technologicalbreathroughs, .hich .ill dra!aticall" adance the h-!an condition in the t.ent"%Drst cent-r"W : prime

eample of the (artian frontier driin* ne. technolo*"W .ill -ndo-&tedl" &e fo-nd in the arena of energyproduction s onW Carth, an a!ple s-ppl" of ener*" .ill &e cr-cial to the s-ccess of (arsW settle!ents he ed Planet does hae

one !aJor ener*" reso-rce thatW .e c-rrentl" )no. a&o-t: deuterium, .hich can be used as the fuel W innearly 0aste/free thermonuclear fusion reactors Carth has lar*eW a!o-nts of de-teri-!

too, &-t .ith all of the eistin* inest!ents inW other, !ore poll-tin* for!s of ener*" prod-ction, the research thatW .o-ld !a)e possi&le

practical f-sion po.er reactors has &een allo.edW to sta*nate The Gartian colonists are certain tobe much more determined to get fusion online , and in doin* so .ill !assiel" &eneDt theW

!other planet as .ellW he parallel &et.een the (artian frontier and that of nineteenth%W cent-r" !erica as technolo*" driers is, ifan"thin*, astl" -nder%W stated !erica droe technolo*ical pro*ress in the last cent-r" &eca-seW are increasin*l" &ein* !ade &" a plethoraof re*-lator" a*encies .hoseW oQcials do not een pretend to hae &een elected &" an"oneW e!ocrac" in !erica and else.here in<estern ciili4ation needsW a shot in the ar! hat &oost can onl" co!e fro! the ea!ple of aW frontier people .hose ciili4ation incorporatesthe ethos that &reathedW the spirit into de!ocrac" in !erica in the Drst place s !ericansW sho.ed C-rope in the last cent-r", so in the

net the (artians can sho.W -s the path a.a" fro! oli*arch" and sta*nationW There are greater threats thata humanist society faces in a closedW .orld than the ret-rn of oli*arch", and if the frontier

remains closed,W .e are certain to face the! in the t.ent"%Drst cent-r" hese threats areW

the spread of4arious sorts of anti/human ideologies and the de4elopment ofpolitical institutions that incorporate the notions that springW fromthem as a basis of operation t the top of the list of s-ch destr-ctie ideas that tend to spread nat-rall" in a

closed societ" is the Gallhus W theory" .hich holds that since the 0orld?sresources are !ore or lessW f ied" population gro0th and li4ing standardsmust be restricted or all W of us 0ill descend into bottomless misery W

(alth-sianis! is scientiDcall" &an)r-ptMall predictions !adeW -pon it hae &een .ron*, &eca-se h-!an &ein*s are not !ere cons-!ers ofreso-rces ather, .e create reso-rces &" the deelop!ent ofW ne. technolo*ies that Dnd -se for the! he !ore people, the fasterW the rateof innoation his is .h" contrar" to =lalth-s3 as the .orldsW pop-lation has increased, the standard of liin* has increased, and at anW



acceleratin* rate 6eertheless, in a closed society Galthusianism has W theappearance of self/e4ident truth" and herein lies the danger It is notW eno-*h

to ar*-e a*ainst (alth-sianis! in the a&stractMs-ch de&atesW are not settled in acade!ic Jo-rnals Unless people cansee broad 4istasW of unused resources in front of them" the belief inlimited resources W tends to follo0 as a matter of course nd if the ideais accepted thatW the .orlds reso-rces are Ded, then each person is ultimately the W enemy

of e4ery other person" and each race or nation is the enemy ofW

e4ery other race or nation. The etreme result is tyranny 0ar" and

e4en genocide @nl" in a -nierse of -nli!ited reso-rces can all !en &e &rothers



:T Space Gilitari-ation

Space po0er pre4ents rogue militari-ationPfalt-gra L=> O Boston +o-ncil on Norei*n elations o&ert E, 0-ne 17,

><eapons in Space>, http://...ifpaor*/pdf/B+NZ$17$Fpdf3 his then represents a *ood transition to the Dnal part of !" presentation)arge numbers of countries are acAuiring missiles that could beeAuipped 0ith nuclear" biological" or chemical 0arheads. Theseinclude states such as Iran and North Qorea as 0ell as non/stateactors 0ho could ha4e such 0eapons in the years ahead He4&ollah.as a&le to la-nch tho-sands of Kat-ch"a roc)ets a*ainst Israel last s-!!erThe ability of the United States to counter missile proliferation andto defend itself and its allies depends on continued utili-ation of space ar*ets identiDed fro! space &" the Gnited States or &" ene!ies of the Gnited States co-ld &e attac)ed .ith !issiles or co!!ando stri)es or, inthe case of attac)s a*ainst the Gnited States, &" terrorist *ro-ps -sin*

satellite i!a*in* easil" do.nloada&le fro! the Internet, as I hae alread"sho.n Ninall", 0e are entering a period in 0hich additional countriesare liely to acAuire nuclear forces as 0ell as their o0n spacecapabilities <e spend a *reat deal of ti!e thin)in* a&o-t North Qoreaand Iran. If 0e cannot halt these programs " as appears to be thecase" 0e 0ill need to be able to counter them V to deter them fromusing such 0eapons or to defend oursel4es if they are tempted touse them. Space aords the arena in 0hich a missile defense couldbe deployed " adding a more robust layer to our capabilities It alsoproides essential reconnaissance, s-reillance, co!!-nications, and otheressential capa&ilities Space 0ill also be increasingly important as 0eupdate security assurances to countries that may feel threatened by

North Qorea especiall" 0apan3 or by Iran Israel and 6@ C-rope3 s .ehae seen, space militari-ation and 0eaponi-ation is already part of the t0enty/rst/century security landscape. The importance of spacecan only gro0 in the years ahead

Space militari-ation is ine4itable.Oberg &==1 [0i!, 6B+ 6e.s ?Space +ons-ltant?, preio-s space en*ineerfor 6S, Space Po.er heor" (a.ell NB, E: GSN ir Gniersit"'It is almost certain that sometime early in the &1st Century" theelding of space/based 0eapons 0ill occur under the auspices of defense" in much the same manner as the nuclear 0eapon buildupthat occurred 0ithin the latter half of the &=th nd, li)e n-clear .eapons,

once elded" there 0ill be no re4ersing course. This too is an historicallesson of 0arfare. :s the 0orld no0 grapples 0ith the proliferationof nuclear 0eapons that 0ere once the pro4ince of superpo0ers" sotoo 0ill it see the initial 0eaponi-ation of space be follo0ed byincreasingly sophisticated armaments as proliferation occurs thereas 0ell so&erin* tho-*ht is the prospect that as la-nch costs *o do.n per -nit of !ass, the

opport-nit" for other actors to p-t .eapons into or&it a&o-t the Carth .ill *o -p



Orbital physics pre4ents space 0ar.Golt-" > [0a!es +la", ssociated irector and esearch Professor at the+enter for 6onproliferation St-dies, epart!ent of 6ational Sec-rit" airs,6aal Post*rad-ate School 6oe!&er 2$$F XSpace Polic"A =ol-!e 2#, Iss-e 8,6oe!&er 2$$F, Pa*es 199%2$5'Gnli)e other eniron!ents of international actiit",

space competition is aected inuniAue 0ays by orbital physics +o!pared to the collectie “*ood” of safe access to

or&ital space, .e can consider space radiation and de&ris as collectie “&ads”9 his does not )eep states

fro! periodicall" atte!ptin* to oerco!e these li!itations, as seen in +hina?s 2$$F test B-t it doescreate signicant operational obstacles to continuing such harmfulbeha4ior" as 0ell as stimulating 0idespread international pressure topre4ent it. These constraints are increasing o4er time" notdecreasing" as space becomes more cro0ded h-s, critics of space ar!s control

!iss the point .hen the" disco-nt the possi&ilit" of -ni-e !ilitar" restraint in space as a “fallac"”1$

Instead, it is a far .orse fallacy to belie4e that states can o4ercome thela0s of orbital physics. Put simply" orbital 0arfare on any scalecannot occur 0ithout ruining critical regions of space Jsuch as lo0/7arth orbitK for other purposes. :s fe0 as a do-en eplosions

capable of releasing some &="=== fragments of dangerous spacedebriscould eecti4ely shut do0n this region for decades. Thus" to

epect that countries 0ill act against their o0n interests by using

space in this 0ay is counterintuiti4e o date, .e hae seen a po.erf-l lo*ic of

“eniron!ental sec-rit"” at .or) in space <hen co-ntries hae crossed the line in ter!s of da!a*e tospace, the" hae retreated or &een p-shed3 &ac).ards &" the ris) of a loss of access



MM: :ns0ersMM



@ill Qills Gars Col

Obama#s bill deacti4ates the budget line for the Garsro4er and the )unar Orbiter" 0hich are ey to eecti4e

coloni-ation:mos" &%; [0onathan, 2/#/15, Science +orrespondent for BB+, “@&a!aSee)s to aise 6asa N-ndin*,” http://...&&cco!/ne.s/science%eniron!ent%#111#21'B-t t.o cas-alties of the &-d*et re-est co-ld &e the (ars Cploration oer@pport-nit" and the E-nar econnaissance @r&iter, .hich is !appin* the(oon In the presidentAs re-est, the &-d*et lines for these t.o pro*ra!!esare red-ced to 4ero in N;2$1 It is not a certaint" that the" .ill &e cancelled,.ith 6asa stressin* it is open to contin-ed operations if the science cases arestron* and the relatiel" s!all s-!s of !one" can &e fo-nd @pport-nit", forea!ple, onl" costs a&o-t ]18! a "ear to r-n he &i**er threat to its f-t-re!a" &e !echanical and/or electronic fail-re he ro&ot has lost the -se of

so!e of its instr-!ents, no lon*er has f-ll !oe!ent of its ar! and ro-tinel"dries &ac).ards &eca-se of the .ear on its !otors It is also str-**lin* .ithsi*niDcant ash !e!or" pro&le!s B-t .hether its loss is enforced &"circ-!stance or Dnancial reasonin*, the passin* .o-ld &e a &lo. to@pport-nit"?s !an" fans he roer has traelled !ore than 8$)! across thes-rface of (ars in its 1$%pl-s "ears on the planet



Cuts !on#t Qill N:S:

Cuts don#t get ill programs V N:S: 0ill nd a 0ay to funde4erything

@od-ash 11 ennis, .riter Space 6e.s Ca!iner,http://...ea!inerco!/space%ne.s%in%national/last%ditch%eort%to%aoid%*oern!ent%sh-tdo.n%inoles%nasa%c-ts3 0PLCer since the space race ended .ith pollo 11, N:S: has found itself on thechopping bloc as only science, not national pride, has been at stae Since

6S?s &-d*et as a part of the total federal &-d*et3 pea)ed in the !id 19$s, N:S: has beenoperating under less and less money relatie to the *oern!ent as a .hole Ho.eer,

e4en as its relati4e budget has shran" N:S: has al0ays found 0aysto probe the mysteries of the cosmos . 6o do-&t, regardless of 0hat thenet go4ernment spending bill oers" N:S: 0ill continue on itsAuest.

N:S: 0ill nd other means to achie4e their goals 0ithinbudget constraints!reier 1; +ase", irector of docac" at PS, “op 6S ScientistsLrapple .ith B-d*et +-ts”, ece!&er 1$, he Planetar" Societ",http://...planetar"or*/&lo*s/case"%dreier/2$1#/2$1#121$%top%nasa%scientists%*rapple%.ith%&-d*et%c-tsht!l3//EL

op N:S: scientists tried to focus on the bright side (onda", highlight ingthe unprecedented producti4ity of current space science missions ,

despite a continued future of diminishing budgets .W r Cllen Stofan,

N:S:?s Chief Scientist, and r 0ohn Erunsfeld, the head of N:S:?s ScienceGission !irectorate and H-&&le%repair astrona-t, &oth emphasi-ed the breadth of

science returns at the 2$1# !erican Leoph"sical Gnion !eetin* in San NranciscoW >he positie

thin* a&o-t !eetin*s li)e this is that "o- see o-r res-lts *ettin* an enor!o-s a!o-nt of press and anenor!o-s a!o-nt of s-pport and interest fro! the !erican people,> said r Stofan >nd the !ore .e

hae that, the !ore .eAre doin* o-r Jo&”W The rst fe0 Auestions from the press0ere about the unusually harsh cuts to 6S?s Planetar" Science iision in recent

"ears, incl-din* !ore than ]2$$ !illion in c-ts proposed in 2$18 In response, Erunsfeldlisted a n-!&er of missions currently operating in space, )eepin* the foc-s o the

-pco!in* !ission *ap in the second half of this decade *e also highlighted the t0oplanetary missions currently in de4elopmentW “$e ha4e plans to go4isit the asteroidD @ennu 0ith OSI2IS/27 to bring bac a prettysubstantial sample. $e are bac in4ol4ed 0ith 7oGars 2$1 and 2$17

$e ha4e InSight" a geophysical monitoring station on Gars" and an

:O for &=&= Gars on the street,” Lr-nsfeld saidW @SIIS%C is a !edi-!%class planetar"!ission that is sched-led to la-nch in 2$1 InSi*ht, a s!all iscoer"%class !ission, is also slated for2$1 6S is contri&-tin* a non%scientiDc co!!-nications pac)a*e to the C-ropean race%Las @r&iter in2$1 and the (ars @r*anic (olec-le nal"4er (@(3 instr-!ent on the Co(ars lander in 2$17W

“Ei4en the tough scal climate" I actually feel 4ery proud of ho00e#4e been able to try and address almost all of the high/priorityitems in the !ecadal Sur4eys,> Lr-nsfeld said >he one .e hae the !ost pro&le! .ith is

the cadence of !issions <e are constrained in !issions”W (ission cadence refers to ho. often 6S can" a ne. spacecraft Keepin* a re*-lar cadence is cr-cial for a health" scientiDc co!!-nit" and a relia&leind-strial &ase for en*ineerin* desi*n and constr-ctionW he 6ational esearch +o-ncil?s ecadal S-re",.hich is the oQcial consens-s of the scientiDc co!!-nit", reco!!ends "in* s!all !issions iscoer"%



class3 eer" t.o "ears, !edi-! !issions 6e. Nrontiers%class3, eer" De "ears, and a a*ship once eer"decadeW <hen as)ed a&o-t the net opport-nities for scientists to propose s!all% and !edi-!%class!issions, 0i! Lreen, the irector of 6SAs Planetar" Science iision said that 6S is plannin* torelease a draft iscoer" !ission anno-nce!ent in 2$18 Preparin* a draft no., he said, .ill allo. 6S toreact -ic)l" if +on*ress adds !ore !one" to the Planetar" Science iision &efore the "ear endsW Lreensaid that the net 6e. Nrontiers%class !ission .ill &e selected after the pea) f-ndin* re-ire!ents for@SIIS%C are !et, .hich is li)el" to &e after 2$15W hese releases are J-st the >nno-nce!ents of @pport-nit",> .hich &e*in a !-lti%"ear process of !ission selection Lien that no selection .ill &e !ade

&efore 2$1 or 2$1F, itAs li)el" that the soonest a ne. !ission .o-ld &e read" to " .o-ld &e 2$21 or2$22 he +lipper C-ropa !ission concept, c-rrentl" esti!ated at ]21 &illion, re!ains o the ta&le W B-t

N:S: is trying to nd creati4e 0ays to 0or 0ithin their constraints

Said Lr-nsfeld: >I#4e challenged our program managersD to loo at otheroptions: .hat a&o-t iscoer" and a halfR @r 6e. Nrontiers and halfR 6ot a a*ship, &-t so!ethin*

that .o-ld allo. -s to do one of these challen*in* !issions he spirit is: let#s use technologyand use some of our capabilities to see if 0e can do >=[ of thescience ob5ecti4es of " say" a 7uropa mission" at half the cost. Thatmight be 0orth the trade.



Space Col Impossible

Space Col nearly impossible / too many barriers" Gars Onepro4es

Qeller 1; Harr", chair of the 6ortheastern Section of the !erican+he!ical Societ" and as a reie.er for nal"tical +he!istr", assistantprofessor of che!istr" at 6ortheastern Gniersit", Ph in anal"tical che!istr"

fro! +ol-!&ia , “(ars @ne: Ccitin* dent-re or HoaR”, pril 7, C+ 0o-rnal

[ed-cational technolo*" chan*e', http://etcJo-rnalco!/2$1#/$8/$7/!ars%

one%ecitin*%adent-re%or%hoa/3//EL

Problem number one is radiation . Interplanetar" space is Dlled .ith solar and cos!ic

radiation he for!er ori*inates fro! the S-n and -ct-ates on an eleen%"ear c"cle he latter ori*inates

o-tside of o-r solar s"ste! fro! catacl"s!ic star eents and &lac) holes Both are potentially

deadlyW 6S has esti!ated that a three/year round/trip and 4isit to Gars

by astronauts 0ould epose them to about one Siemen of radiation"

the recommended lifetime dosage nn-al epos-re on Carth at sea leel is in the

!illiSie!ens ran*e he eects of radiation epos-re include cataracts, increased li)elihood

of cancer" and sterility <itho-t radiation shieldin* on (ars, colonists 0ill be

doomed to 4ery shortened lifespans and 0ould be unliely to

reproduce Children " if born" 0ould ha4e e4en more problems

because rapidly de4eloping cells are e4en more sensiti4e to

radiation eects .W he reasons that radiation is s-ch a pro&le! on (ars &-t not on Carth arise

fro! the t0o things that shield us Carthlin*s fro! radiation: our atmosphere

and the 7arth#s magnetic eld he (artian at!osphere is a&o-t 1/1$$ that of the Carth

Cssentiall" all radiation arries on the s-rface (ars has no !a*netic Deld Scientists post-late that it is

solid to the core and so has no li-id interior to *enerate a !a*netic Deld he CarthAs !a*netic Deld

deects arriin* ionic cos!ic ra"s and solar radiation, altho-*h *a!!a ra"s are -naected his deection

to o-r polar radiation is the reason that .e see the a-rora &orealis near o-r north pole &-t not near thee-ator hose li*ht displa"s are ca-sed &" ener*etic ions i!pactin* the at!osphereW he proposed (ars

@ne ha&itats hae no eident radiation shieldin*, and radiation is not !entioned on their .e&site he &est

shieldin* .o-ld &e a thic) la"er of li-id h"dro*en, &-t .ater can also f-nction reasona&l" .ell @ddl" "

metal shielding, -nless er" thic), maes cosmic radiation 0orse because

the rays hit metal atom nuclei and create a sho0er of ne0 radiationfro! .hat .as a sin*le ra"W he colonists co-ld *o -nder*ro-nd to aoid radiation, &-t (ars @ne has no

s-ch plans he" do hope to &-ild etensions to the shelters fro! the (artian soil <e donAt )no. ho.feasi&le this plan is or .hether the thic)ness of the soil .alls .ill &e s-Qcient to aoid si*niDcant radiation

da!a*eW (oin* on past the radiation iss-es, .hich !a" neer &e ade-atel" resoled, "o- .illenco-nter a n-!&er of !ore !-ndane iss-es hese fall into t.o areas: ph"sical and ps"cholo*ical W

Ph"sical Pro&le!sW he physical problems ha4e to do 0ith life support and

epansion Eife re-ires air, .ater, food, and shelter <ith one percent of CarthAs at!osphere, (ars

has an at!osphere that .e cannot &reathe ItAs !ostl" car&on dioide 95`3 an".a" .ith o"*en onl" as atrace co!ponent Cen if "o- co!pressed it, "o- still co-ld not &reathe it he colonists must

li4e in a pressuri-ed en4ironment and must scrub the carbon dioide

JCO&K from the air to pre4ent stress and e4entual death from

hypercapnia. Oygen must constantly be generated fro! so!e so-rce to

!a)e -p for o"*en cons-!ed &" the colonistsW Plants *ro.n for food can perfor! the f-nctions of car&on

dioide re!oal and o"*en *eneration, &-t earl" plans for (ars @ne s-**est that the space allotted for

plants !a" not &e s-Qcient for these p-rposes and !-st &e s-pplanted &" !echanical and che!ical

processes, .hich .ill re-ire po.erW Substantial s-pplies of 0ater 0ill be reAuired to



s-pport een fo-r colonists .ho .ill &e liin* in a .ater%poor eniron!ent he interior of the ha&itat !a"act-all" &e !oist &eca-se it .ill not ta)e !-ch .ater to sat-rate the s!all at!osphere contained there

(ost edi&le plants transpire, and a !oist at!osphere .ill red-ce their .ater re-ire!ents <ater .ill co!efro! three so-rces: .ater carried on the !ission, .ater rec"cled fro! colonists, and .ater “!ined” fro!

the (artian soilW his last so-rce !a" &e a pro&le! &eca-se the best location for 0ater is

near the Gartian poles, but the best place for solar energy is near

the Gartian eAuator $e do not yet no0 if reasonable amounts of

0ater eist belo0 the Gartian surface at the eAuator $ater is also

the most liely source of oygen Clectrol"sis of .ater prod-ces h"dro*en and o"*en

*ases herefore, .ater is necessar" for &oth its o.n al-e and for replenishin* air Beca-se colonists !-st

ent-re o-tside and so step thro-*h an airloc), losin* air in the process, and &eca-se the ha&itat .ill

certainl" hae at least !inor lea)s, air must be constantly replacedW he initial si

ha&itat !od-les hae &een allocated in pairs @ne pair has &een resered for food prod-ction he eact

nat-re of the plants to &e -sed has not &een descri&ed &" (ars @ne Gnless colonists hae a decent

radiation shield, the plants .ill neither *ro. nor reprod-ce .ell ss-!in* s-ch a shield is aaila&le, the

plants !-st conert s-nshine to edi&le plant !atter he solar intensit" is a&o-t 8#` of that on Carth,

.hich .ill necessitate the -se of eQcient plants that can *ro. .ell in eternall" clo-d" Carth cli!es (ost

food plants !-st hae stron* s-nli*ht H"&rids !a" &e deeloped to co!pensateW Cen so, it#s

unclear 0hether the amount of space allocated for food production

0ill suXce to feed the entire colony Cen if the space is ade-ate,

the diet 0illbe monotonous he ineQcienc" of ani!als for food so-rces !eans that the entire diet !-st &e

e*an ;east or si!ilar or*anis!s !-st &e *ro.n as .ell to proide B12, .hich cannot &e o&tained fro!

strictl" plant so-rces +olonists .ill neer a*ain see a stea) or Dlet of Dsh he" .ill hae e**s or !il)

prod-cts he" .onAt een hae the prod-ce of trees O n-ts, apples, citr-s, etc here .ill &e no pepper,

cinna!on, or anillaW @nl" the !ost eQcient plants can &e -tili4ed for food on (ars he ariet" .ill

certainl" &e li!ited <e cannot "et tell if colonists can *ro. so!e *in*er or &asil to help alleiate the

!onoton" of dietW Shelter 0ill remain a serious problem for the foreseea&le f-t-re

No-r people .ill inha&it si s!all !od-les of .hich fo-r are resered for !echanical and food p-rposes

The shelter must remain airtight and insulating at all ti!es e!perat-res on the

(artian s-rface drop to far &elo. free4in* at ni*ht ltho-*h the at!osphere is etre!el" thin, er" stron*

.inds create sandstorms that can erode anything eposed outside, incl-din* the

shelters he materials fro! .hich shelters are &-ilt must be strong enough to

0ithstand the 0inds but light enough to ship to Gars " a realengineering challengeW 6S?s +-riosit" oerW 6SAs +-riosit" oerW *eat 0ill be

lost through the 0alls of the ha&itat een .ith the &est ins-lation his heat !-st &e replaced

he (ars colonists 0ill nd a&sol-tel" no coal, no oil, and no natural gas to -se as

an ener*" so-rce Only solar and 0ind ener*" 0ill be a4ailable -nless the" &rin* alon*

a n-clear po.er *enerator S!all ones, s-ch as is &ein* -sed &" 6SAs +-riosit" roer, can proide so!e

po.er &-t not eno-*h for this p-rpose Heat .ill &e a serio-s iss-e for (ars @ne heir plans call for lar*e

ei&le solar panels to &e rolled o-t onto the (artian s-rface to capt-re the .an s-nli*ht he plans

do not sho0 calculations for epected energy capture during the lon*

(artian 0inters <ith a “"ear” t.ice as lon* as o-rs, .inters are also t0ice as longW In

addition, batteries must store this captured solar energy Eots of &atteries .ill &e

needed to hold eno-*h ener*" for heatin* and other p-rposes s-ch as o"*en *eneration thro-*ho-t the

(artian ni*hts he (ars @ne infor!ation does not incl-de &atter" speciDcations 74en the mosteXcient batteries are hea4y and 0ill ha4e to be lifted from 7arth to

Gars at \1="=== per poundW he colonists !-st .or) o-tside of their ha&itat in the harsh

(artian eniron!ent and so !-st hae Gars suits that are the e-ialent of space s-its (aintainin*

these 0ill be crucial to etendin* the colon" $ithout petrochemical sources"

it#s unclear 0hat materials 0ill be used to replace the plastic

components of these suits .W If the colon" is to be self/sustaining" it must

be able to epand using local !aterials $ater is too precious to -se for



!a)in* concrete or een ado&e if the &asic !aterials co-ld &e o&tained 6ote that cement

reAuires lots of heat to !a)e To mae iron, iron ore and enormous amounts

of energy are needed +onertin* iron to steel re-ires !ore ener*" and lots of car&on, &-t

(ars has no fossil f-els as so-rces of car&on Si!ilarl", copper, 4inc, and tin all re-ire !assie a!o-nts of

ener*" O far more than the solar arrays 0ill pro4ide .W +olonists .ill hae to epand

their solar arra"s as the" epand the colon" O if s-ch epansion can &e done at all he high/

technology reAuired for manufacturing these arrays 0ill be far beyond

the capabilities of the Gartian colony <ith nothin* to eport, the colonists 0ill

ha4e to depend on 7arth to send them the needed materials and .ill &eco!e

interplanetar" &e**ars If the" hae children, the"All hae to epand their food tan)s @f .hat .ill the"

constr-ct the!R Indeed, .hat &-ildin* !aterials .ill the colonists hae for an" p-rpose, een for !a)in*

coo)in* pots or childrenAs to"sRW Gedical issues ha4e not een been consider ed he

colonists 0ould not ha4e any access to modern medicine he" .o-ld hae

to &e caref-ll" screened for *enetic factors that predispose to disease (edical pro&le!s that .e can

handle readil" here .o-ld res-lt in death on (arsW Ps"cholo*ical Press-resW Cen if po.er, air, .ater,

food, shelter, and &-ildin* !aterials can &e resoled, a er" -nli)el" res-lt, the colonists must

face etreme psychological pressures . : single s!all error &" one colonist

can ill them all his co-ld happen on an" da"W @nl" di*ital !aterial co-ld &e i!ported fro!

Carth on a re*-lar &asis <ith s-Qcient po.er, the colonists co-ld .atch ideos and listen to !-sicHo.eer, conersation .ith Carth%&o-nd fa!ilies and friends .o-ld not &e possi&le he ro-nd%trip dela"for radio trans!ission is &et.een and 8$ !in-tes Sa", “Hello,” and "o- hear a response 2$ !in-tes

later on aera*e ll co!!-nication .ith Carth .o-ld &e as"nchrono-sW $hat 0ould it tae to

mae life on Gars bearableZ Ho. co-ld "o- oerco!e the !onoton" of food, of ie., of

co!pan", of s!ells, of cra!ped liin* spacesR ;o- .o-ld neer s!ell a pine forest a*ain or see the ocean

here are no “a!&er .aes of *rain” or een cit"scapes ;o-All hae no &l-e s)ies or clo-ds and no hope of

eer eperiencin* the! a*ain in person Rou#ll be sub5ect to etreme cabin fe4er.W It

loo)s li)e (ars colonists 0ill be in a constant state of stress from a long

list of sources Ho. can "o- stand this sort of stressR he ans.er t"picall" lies in hope for the

f-t-re, in the &elief that "o-Are &-ildin* so!ethin* for "o-r children and f-t-re *enerations Gnless the

pro&le!s of radiation, po.er, .ater, &-ildin* !aterials, repairin* and replacin* (ars s-its, and the rest are

soled, "o-Ae J-st sentenced "o-rself to a life in prison, and that prison is the closest thin* to hell that an"

liin* person can eperience oer protracted periods <itho-t hope, (ars @ne is doo!ed toda"



Taes Too )ong

Coloni-ation is useless/ can#t get of 7arth fast enough6i)os Prant-os, n-clear astroph"sicist in the Instit-t d?stroph"si-e de

Paris, Nrance @-r +os!ic N-t-re, &=== p 786ot onl" science Dction readers, &-t also -ite a fe. scientists are dreaming of .a"s to &rin*

life to other planets in the Solar S"ste!, and in partic-lar to (ars Their moti4ation iscertainly not a solution to o4erpopulation problems on 7arth Cen

tho-*h (ars has an area e-al to all the land area on Carth, it 0ould be impossible totransport any signicant fraction of the population. In order to senda hundred million people .hich constit-tes a negligible fraction of thepresent populationK , in let -s sa" one century" three thousanddepartures 0ould ha4e to be organised each day herefore, the fascination for

terrafor!in* (ars is !ore closel" related to the ne. frontier it represents +on-est of s-ch a frontier.o-ld help o-r ciilisation to release its creatie potential and Dnd ne. italit" So!e hae co!pared thesit-ation .ith the !erican frontier, seeral cent-ries a*o

Taes too long/ Space coloni-ation 0ould tae hundreds of thousands of years.6i)os Prant-os, n-clear astroph"sicist in the Instit-t d?stroph"si-e de

Paris, Nrance @-r +os!ic N-t-re, &=== p 152%#nother i!portant -estion is raised &" the disc-ssion in the last section, for reasons .hich .ill &eco!e

clear in the rest of this chapter If the human species e4er masters the art of

interstellar tra4el, either slo. or rapid, ho0 long 0ill it tae to epand across the

.hole Lala" and settle in een the !ost distant re*ionsR It is clearl" diQc-lt to *ie a reasona&le

ans.er to this -estion lo.er li!it is i!posed &" the si4e of the Ealay" 0hich measures

almost a hundred thousand light/years in diameter see Ni* 443 74en

using relati4istic 4ehicles" cruising at nearly the speed of light"hundreds of thousands of years 0ould be needed 5ust to cross the

Gily $ay In slo.%!oin* .orld ships, .ith speeds of a fe. tho-sandths the speed of li*ht, the ti!e

re-ired to cross the Lala" &eco!es h-ndreds of ti!es *reater a*ain, of the order of ten !illion "ears

he ti!e re-ired to colonise .o-ld clearl" &e *reater still



Turn6 Space Gilitari-ation

Space eploration leads to militari-ation.!u4all Y *a4ercroft ?W O Professor of Political Science Gni of

(innesota and ssociate irector of the Interdisciplinar" +enter for the St-d"of Llo&al +han*e 6 ssistant Professor in the Political Scienceepart!ent at the Gniersit" of @)laho!a a"!ond and 0ohnathan, (arch2$$, >a)in* Soerei*nt" @-t of his <orld: Space <eaponi4ation and theProd-ction of Eate%(odern Political S-&Jects,> C&sco, L3The 0eaponi-ation of space the act of placin* .eapons in o-ter space has anintimate relationship to space eploration , in that the histor" of the formeris embedded in the latter, .hile the i!pet-s for space eploration, in t-rn, is e!&edded in

histories of !ilitar" deelop!ent Since the la-nch of Sp-tni), states that hae a&ilit" to access andhence to eploreo-ter space hae so-*ht .a"s in .hich that access co-ld i!proe their !ilitar"

capa&ilities +onse-entl", !ilitaries in *eneral and the U.S. military in particular ha4ehad a strong interest in the military uses of space forthe last half cent-r" Carl"on, the !ilitar" interest in space had t.o direct epressions: enhancin*s-reillance and deelopin*

roc)etr" technolo*ies that co-ld &e p-t to -se for earth%&ased .eapons, s-ch as !issiles (ilitaries alsohae a ested interest in the “d-al%-se” technolo*ies that are often deeloped in space eploration

!issions $hile N:S: goes to great lengths in its public relations tostress the benets to science and the !erican3 public of its spaceeplorations" it is note0orthy that many of the technologiesde4eloped for those missions also ha4e potential military use he

!-ltiple interests that tie to*ether space eploration andspace .eaponi4ation hae &een i*oro-sl"p-rs-ed and no. are &e*innin* to &e s-&stantiall" reali4ed &" a er" s!all n-!&er of !ilitaries, !ostnota&l" that of the Gnited States Nor ea!ple, since the 199$ Persian L-lf <ar, the GS !ilitar" hasincreasin*l" reliedon assets in space to increase its +#I +o!!and, +ontrol, +o!!-nication, andIntelli*ence3 f-nctions (ost of these f-nctions are no.ro-ted thro-*h satellites in or&it In addition, ne.precision .eapons, s-ch as 0( &o!&s, and -n!anned drones, s-ch as the Predator,rel" on Llo&alPositionin* S"ste! satellites to help direct the! to their tar*ets, and often these .eapons co!!-nicate.ith head-arters thro-*h satellite -plin)s

Space 0eaponi-ation 0ould cause the 0orst 0ar inhistory.Lordon Gitchell, !e!&er of +SIS <or)in* Lro-p on heater (issileefenses in the sia%PaciDc e*ion,

NEC+HC N@G( @6 <@E NNIS, <inter &==1, p 1% If 0e 0eaponi-e space" 0e 0ill face a er" dierent i!a*eMthe image of hundreds of 0eapons/laden satellites orbiting directly o4er ourhomes and our families & hours a day" ready to re 0ithin seconds If

Dred, the" .o-ld destro" tho-sands of *ro-nd, air, and space tar*ets .ithin !in-tes, &efore there is een

a chance of )no.in* .hat has happened, or .h" This 0ould be a dar future" a future

0e should a4oid at all costs &-ild-p of space .eapons .ith capa&ilit" to eec-te

oensie !issions !i*ht &e*in .ith no&le intentions of “peace thro-*h stren*th” deterrence, &-t thisrationale *losses oer the tendenc" that “\the presence of space 0eapons\ 0ill

result in the increased lielihood of their use ” (ilitar" co!!anders desirin* to

harness the precision stri)e capa&ilit" aorded &" space&ased “s!art” .eapons !i*ht order deli&erate

attac)s on ene!" *ro-nd tar*ets in a crisis The di--ying speed of space 0arfare0ould introduce intense use or lose pressure into strategiccalculations " 0ith the specter of splitsecond laser attac)s creatin* incenties to ri* or&itin* death

stars .ith automated hair trigger de4ices In theor", this a-to!ation .o-ld enhance



s-ria&ilit" of -lnera&le space .eapon platfor!s Ho.eer, by taing the decision tocommit 4iolence out of human hands and endo0ing computers 0ithauthority to mae 0ar" military planners could so0 insidious seeds of accidental con3ict ;ale sociolo*ist +harles Perro. has anal"4ed “co!plel" interactie, ti*htl"

co-pled” ind-strial s"ste!s, .hich hae !an" sophisticated co!ponents that all depend on each otherAsa.less perfor!ance ccordin* to Perro., this interloc)in* co!pleit" !a)es it i!possi&le to foresee allthe dierent .a"s s-ch s"ste!s co-ld fail He f-rther eplains, “[t'he odd ter! Xnor!al accidentA is !eantto si*nal that, *ien the s"ste! characteristics, !-ltiple and -nepected interactions of fail-res are

ineita&le” !eployment of space 0eapons .ith pre%dele*ated a-thorit" to Dre death ra"s

or -nleash )iller proJectiles 0ould liely mae 0ar itself ine4itable " gi4en the

susceptibility of such systems to normal accidents. It is chilling tocontemplate the possible eects of a space 0ar ccordin* to Bo.!an,

e4en a tiny pro5ectile reentering from space stries the earth 0ith

such high 4elocity that it can do enormous damagee4en more than

0ould be done by a nuclear 0eapon of the same si-e] In the sa!e laser

technolo*" to-ted &" President ea*an as the -intessential tool of peace, aid Ean*ford sees one of the

!ost .ic)ed oensie .eapons eer conceied: One imagines dead cities of micro0a4e/grilled people. Lien this -ni-e potential for destr-ction, it is not hard to

i!a*ine that an" nation s-&Jected to a space .eapon attac) .o-ld escalate &" retaliatin* .ith !ai!-!

force, incl-din* -se of n-clear, &iolo*ical, and/or che!ical .eapons :n accidental 0ar

spared by a computer glitch in space could plunge the 0orld into

the most destructi4e military con3ict e4er seen







TP:



Topshelf



1NC

TP: 0ill pass no0 0ith Obama pushing!onnan 1/&> [Sha.n, 1/2F/15, Ninancial i!es eporter, >GS trade chief sa"s PaciDc deal is

close>, Ninancial i!es, http://...ftco!/c!s/s/$/F7$$Fd2%a2f%11e8%a&e9%

$$188fea&Fdeht!la44#VL8i9I+U'

2epublicans no0 in control of Congress ha4e indicated they are0illing to gi4e 0hat is more commonly no0n as fast/trac authority to the president and senator @rrin Hatch, chair!an of the Senate Dnance

co!!ittee, reiterated that senti!ent on -esda" @ut it does face opposition fromsome !emocrats . Se4eral senators from the president#s partyepressed scepticism oer the ad!inistrationAs clai!s that trade a*ree!ents .o-ld help

create hi*her pa"in* Jo&s for !iddle class .or)ers he" also pressed (r Nro!an to do !ore to address theiss-e of c-rrenc" !anip-lation in trade ne*otiations, so!ethin* the ad!inistration has resisted B-siness

*ro-ps &eliee that resistance is unliely to pro4e enough to stop the pushfor t rade p romotion a uthority going through Congress in the coming0ees . (r Nro!an said the Obama administration#s trade push 0as part of

its eorts to help boost the US economy and create higher/paying 5obs at a time 0hen stagnant 0ages and rising ineAuality are top ofthe political agenda “hese eorts hae contri&-ted *reatl" to !ericaAs econo!ic co!e&ac),”

(r Nro!an said GS eports had *ro.n nearl" 5$ per cent since 2$$9, reachin* a record hi*h of ]2#tn in2$1# and s-pportin* 11#! Jo&s, he said

((Insert )in *ere++

PC is ey to TP: and trade dealsthat sol4es structuralimpediments that other0ise tan the economy$SH 1&/& [12/17/18, <all Street 0o-rnal, +harles Bo-stan" and o&ert B Uoellic), (r Bo-stan"

, Ea3 is a senior !e!&er of the Ho-se <a"s and (eans +o!!ittee, .here he seres on theS-&co!!ittee on rade (r Uoellic) sered as GS trade representatie, dep-t" secretar" of state, andpresident of the <orld Ban), > rade @pport-nit" for @&a!a and the 6e. +on*ress,>http://....sJco!/articles/charles%&o-stan"%and%ro&ert%&%4oellic)%a%trade%opport-nit"%for%o&a!a%and%the%ne.%con*ress%1819711#$7'

Prof ichard 6e-stadt eplained to President 0ohn N Kenned" that the presidency relied on

the po0er to persuade. It#s time for Gr. Obama to persuade on

trade. *e must mae use of the con4ening po0er of the eecuti4e to

bolster his ad4ocacy. *is administration must 0or closely 0ith

Congress to listen" eplain" address problems and cut deals . So .h"

does trade !atterR Nirst, :mericans are feeling sAuee-ed @n the ee of the election, Pe.

esearch reported that F9` of !ericans considered the econo!" to &e poor or at &est fair : boostin U.S. trade can increase 0ages and lo0er li4ing epenses for

familiesMoerin* hi*her earnin*s and c-ttin* taes on trade (an-fact-rin* .or)ers .ho prod-ce

eports earn, on aera*e, a&o-t 17` !ore, accordin* to the +o!!erce epart!ent heir pa" raise can

&e traced to the hi*her prod-ctiit" of co!petitie eportin* &-sinesses Since <orld <ar II, GS trade

polic" has foc-sed on lo.erin* &arriers to !an-fact-rin* and a*ric-lt-ral prod-cts B-t GS trade

ne*otiators also -se free%trade a*ree!ents Ns3 to pr" open serice sectors and epand e%co!!erce In

recent "ears, such business ser4ices as soft0are" nance" architecture

and engineering employed &<[ of :merican 0orers" more than



t0ice as many as 0ored in manufacturing B-siness serice e!plo"ees earned

oer 2$` !ore than the aera*e !an-fact-rin* Jo&, and the GS consistentl" r-ns a trade s-rpl-s in

&-siness serices @er the past De "ears, the <orld Ban) reports, a&o-t F5` of the .orldAs *ro.th has

&een in e!er*in* !ar)ets, .hich *enerall" hae hi*her &arriers to trade s !ericaAs hi*hl" prod-ctie

far!ers and ranchers hae seen, *ro.in* .orld !ar)ets are the driers of hi*her sales <ith the &oo! in

GS ener*" innoation and prod-ction, f-el eports co-ld sp-r !ore inest!ent and Jo&s in that sector,

too !erican fa!ilies, and &-sinesses, &eneDt fro! hi*her inco!es and lo.er%priced i!ports he <orld

rade @r*ani4ation reports that the 6orth !erican Nree rade *ree!ent and the Gr-*-a" o-nd, the last&i* *lo&al trade a*ree!ent, hae increased the p-rchasin* po.er of an aera*e !erican fa!il" of fo-r

&" ]1,#$$ to ]2,$$$ eer" "ear he Peterson Instit-te for International Ccono!ics esti!ates that the ne.

trade deals in the .or)s co-ld oer that fa!il" another ]#,$$$ or !ore a "ear Second, the U.S. and

0orld economies desperately need a shift from etraordinary

go4ernmental spending and -ero/interest/rate monetary policies to

gro0th led by the pri4ate sector. Sustained gro0th can only be

generated by pri4ate in4estment" inno4ation and purchases.

:merican companies need greater condence in free/enterprise

policies before in4esting their big cash reser4es. Trade policy oers

an international partnership to o4ercome structural impediments to

gro0th . he ne*otiations for the PP, for ea!ple, ai! to create an open trade and inest!ent

net.or) a!on* the GS, si c-rrent N partners, and De ne. ones he &i**est additional !ar)et is

0apan, a piotal PaciDc all" 0apanese Pri!e (inister Shin4o &e .ants to -se the PP to press his o.n

econo!" to.ard !ore co!petition, .itho-t .hich his *oal of reiin* 0apan .ill falter =ietna! and

(ala"sia .o-ld also ta)e part the" &eliee the" can -se the r-les and disciplines of the PP to &oost

*ro.th, i!proe ind-stries and serices, epand *lo&al lin)a*es, and aoid the so%called “!iddle inco!e”

trap, .here co-ntriesA lac) of prod-ctiit" *ro.th slo.s the rise to hi*her inco!es

Nuclear 0ar*arris and @urro0s" '[(athe. 0 B-rro.s is a co-nselor in the 6ational Intelli*ence +o-ncil 6I+3, the principal drafter of Llo&al

rends 2$25: ransfor!ed <orld, 0ennifer Harris is a !e!&er of the 6I+As Eon* an*e nal"sis Gnit,“eisitin* the N-t-re: Leopolitical Cects of the Ninancial +risis”, he <ashin*ton V-arterl", pril,http://...ciaonetor*/Jo-rnals/t./#2i2/fZ$$11F7Z1#952pdf'Increased Potential for Llo&al +onict @f co-rse, the report enco!passes !ore than econo!ics and indeed &eliees thef-t-re is li)el" to &e the res-lt of a n-!&er of intersectin* and interloc)in* forces <ith so !an" possi&le per!-tations ofo-tco!es, each .ith a!ple opport-nit" for -nintended conse-ences, there is a *ro.in* sense of insec-rit" Cen so,

histor" !a" &e !ore instr-ctie than eer <hile .e contin-e to &eliee that the Ereat !epression is not

li)el" to &e repeated, the lessons to be dra0n from that period include theharmful eects on 3edgling democracies and multiethnic societiesJthin Central 7urope in 1'&=s and 1';=sK and on the sustainabilityof multilateral institutions Jthin )eague of Nations in the sameperiodK. here is no reason to thin) that this .o-ld not &e tr-e in the t.ent"%Drst as !-ch as in the t.entieth

cent-r" Nor that reason, the .a"s in .hich the potential for greater con3ict could gro0

.o-ld see! to &e een !ore apt in a constantly 4olatile economic en4ironment as

the" .o-ld &e if chan*e .o-ld &e steadier In s-re"in* those ris)s, the report stressed the li)elihood that terroris! and

nonproliferation .ill re!ain priorities een as reso-rce iss-es !oe -p on the international a*enda Terrorism#sappeal 0ill decline if economic gro0th continues in the Giddle 7ast

and youth unemployment is reduced Nor those terrorist *ro-ps that re!ain actie in 2$25,

ho.eer, the diusion of technologies and scientic no0ledge 0ill placesome of the 0orld#s most dangerous capabilities 0ithin their reach.

errorist *ro-ps in 2$25 .ill li)el" &e a co!&ination of descendants of lon* esta&lished *ro-ps inheritin* or*ani4ationalstr-ct-res, co!!and and control processes, and trainin* proced-res necessar" to cond-ct sophisticated attac) and

ne0ly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised thatbecome self/radicali-ed " particularly in the absence of economic



outlets that 0ould become narro0er in an economic do0nturn. Themost dangerous casualty of any economically/induced dra0do0n ofU.S. military presence 0ould almost certainly be the Giddle 7ast.

ltho-*h IranAs ac-isition of n-clear .eapons is not ineita&le, 0orries about a nuclear/armedIran could lead states in the region to de4elop ne0 securityarrangements 0ith eternal po0ers" acAuire additional 0eapons"

and consider pursuing their o0n nuclear ambitions . It is not clear

that the type of stable deterrent relationship that eisted &et.een the *reat po.ers

for !ost of the +old <ar 0ould emerge nat-rall" in the (iddle Cast .ith a n-clear Iran 7pisodes of

lo0 intensity con3ict and terrorism taing place under a nuclear

umbrella could lead to an unintended escalation and &roader conict if clear red

lines &et.een those states inoled are not .ell esta&lished he close proi!it" of potential n-clear rials co!&ined .ith-nderdeeloped s-reillance capa&ilities and !o&ile d-al%capa&le Iranian !issile s"ste!s also .ill prod-ce inherent

diQc-lties in achiein* relia&le indications and .arnin* of an i!pendin* n-clear attac). The lac of

strategic depth in neighboring states lie Israel" short 0arning and

missile 3ight times" and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place

more focus on preemption rather than defense" potentially leading

to escalating crises. Types of con3ict that the 0orld continues toeperience" such as o4er resources" could reemerge " particularly ifprotectionism gro0s and there is a resort to neo/mercantilist

practices. Perceptions of rene0ed energy scarcity 0ill dri4e

countries to tae actions to assure their future access to energysupplies. In the 0orst case" this could result in interstate con3icts ifgo4ernment leaders deem assured access to energy resources" for

ea!ple, to be essential for maintaining domestic stability and thesur4i4al of their regime. 74en actions short of 0ar" ho0e4er" 0illha4e important geopolitical implications. Garitime security concernsare pro4iding a rationale for na4al buildups and moderni-ation

eorts" such as China#s and India#s deelop!ent of &l-e .ater naal capa&ilities If the Dscalsti!-l-s foc-s for these co-ntries indeed t-rns in.ard, one of the !ost o&io-s f-ndin* tar*ets !a" &e !ilitar"

@uildup of regional na4al capabilities could lead to increasedtensions " ri4alries" and counterbalancing mo4es , &-t it also .ill create opport-nities

for !-ltinational cooperation in protectin* critical sea lanes $ith 0ater also becoming scarcerin :sia and the Giddle 7ast" cooperation to manage changing 0aterresources is liely to be increasingly diXcult &oth .ithin and &et.een states in amore dog/eat/dog 0orld. <hat Kind of <orld .ill 2$25 BeR Perhaps !ore than lessons, histor" loes

patterns espite .idespread chan*es in the .orld toda", there is little to s-**est that the f-t-re .ill not rese!&le the

past in seeral respects he report asserts that, -nder !ost scenarios, the trend to0ard greaterdiusion of authority and po0er that has been ongoing for a coupleof decades is liely to accelerate because of the emergence of ne0global players" the 0orsening institutional decit" potential gro0thin regional blocs" and enhanced stren*th of non%state actors and net.or)s he !-ltiplicit" of actors on the

international scene co-ld either stren*then the international s"ste!, &" Dllin* *aps left &" a*in* post%<orld <ar IIinstit-tions, or co-ld f-rther fra*!ent it and incapacitate international cooperation he diersit" in &oth t"pe and )ind ofactor raises the li)elihood of fra*!entation occ-rrin* oer the net t.o decades, partic-larl" *ien the .ide arra" oftransnational challen*es facin* the international co!!-nit" Beca-se of their *ro.in* *eopolitical and econo!ic clo-t,the risin* po.ers .ill enJo" a hi*h de*ree of freedo! to c-sto!i4e their political and econo!ic policies rather than f-ll"adoptin* <estern nor!s he" are also li)el" to cherish their polic" freedo! to !ane-er, allo.in* others to carr" thepri!ar" &-rden for dealin* .ith terroris!, cli!ate chan*e, proliferation, ener*" sec-rit", and other s"ste! !aintenanceiss-es Cistin* !-ltilateral instit-tions, desi*ned for a dierent *eopolitical order, appear too ri*id and c-!&erso!e to-nderta)e ne. !issions, acco!!odate chan*in* !e!&erships, and a-*!ent their reso-rces 6on*oern!entalor*ani4ations and philanthropic fo-ndations, concentratin* on speciDc iss-es, increasin*l" .ill pop-late the landscape &-tare -nli)el" to aect chan*e in the a&sence of concerted eorts &" !-ltilateral instit-tions or *oern!ents Corts at



*reater incl-sieness, to reect the e!er*ence of the ne.er po.ers, !a" !a)e it harder for international or*ani4ations totac)le transnational challen*es espect for the dissentin* ie.s of !e!&er nations .ill contin-e to shape the a*enda of

or*ani4ations and li!it the )inds of sol-tions that can &e atte!pted :n ongoing nancial crisisand prolonged recession 0ould tilt the scales e4en further in thedirection of a fragmented and dysfunctional international system

0ith a heightened ris of con3ict. The report concluded that the

rising @2IC po0ers J@ra-il" 2ussia" India" and ChinaK seem a4erse tochallenging the international system" as Eermany and Hapan did inthe nineteenth and t0entieth centuries" but this of course couldchange if their 0idespread hopes for greater prosperity becomefrustrated and the current benets they deri4e from a globali-ing0orld turn negati4e.



&NC O,TP: 0ill pass in the status Auo because Obama is pushingfor it. *o0e4er the plan costs Obama too much PC andmaes the TP: collapse. $ithout the agreement"

structural impediments to the economy such as -erointerest rate monetary policies mae economic collapseine4itable. That leads to nuclear 0ar terrorism" Iraniannues" and energy scarcity.

That out0eighs and turns the case61/ *arris and @urro0s are both descripti4e and predicti4eeconomic collapse 0ill trigger nuclear 0ar that#s abo4e"and means you should prefer our impact on probability.Timeframe is fast" the economy is still reco4ering" and

this agreement is critical to get the economy bac ontrac. Gagnitude is etinction" *arris and @urro0sisolate se4eral dierent 0arrants for con3ict andetinction6 Iran" energy scarcity" terrorism" and increasedris of miscalc should all be treated as independentimpacts



&NC U8 $all

It has @oehner#s 4ote of good faithPolitico" 1%&' [=ictoria L-ida, 1%29%2$15, >Nincher p-lls tri**er on C%I!

&ill>, P@EII+@,http://...politicoco!/!ornin*trade/$115/!ornin*trade1915ht!l'B@CH6C: P “+CI6E; EIKCE;”: Ho-se Spea)er 0ohn @oehner doesnAt see !an" areas ofcooperation .ith President Barac) @&a!a, &-t in an interie. .ith No 6e.s on <ednesda" he

included trade promotion authority on a short list of legislation thatcould get signed into la0. I thin getting the t rade p romotion

a uthority for the president that he?s ased for is certainly liely ,”

Boehner said hree other ite!s that co-ld !oe .ith help fro! the <hite Ho-se are an a-thori4ation ofthe -se of !ilitar" force to deal .ith ISIS and other threats aro-nd the .orld, a lon*%ter! infrastr-ct-re &illand c"&ersec-rit" le*islation, he said

@eef lobbying gets some dems on board

Politico" 1%&> [=ictoria L-ida, 1/2F/15, >Nro!an faces con*ressional*rillin* M PP sho. .ill *o on M * *ro-ps lo&&"in* for P>, P@EII+@,http://...politicoco!/!ornin*trade/$115/!ornin*trade17F1ht!l'6+B C; @ @G6 GP P =@CS: The National Cattlemen#s @eef :ssociation "another group 0ith a strong interest in tapping the full potential ofthe Hapanese maret through TPP" came out (onda" in fa4or of TP:

le*islation “$e#4e got some friends on the !emocratic side 0e can talto I thin that may help us,” said 6+B President Bo& (c+an, a so-th eas cattle rancher

“+ertainl", 0e#4e got a tremendous amount of ne0 people that 0ehelped actually a lot of them get elected through our P:C anddierent things 0e do.

@ipartisan support for TP: no0" but it#ll reAuiresubstantial bargaining!aschle and )ott" 1%1W [1/1/15, Nor!er Sens o! aschle %S3and rent Eott %(iss3, > chance to proe &ipartisanship is possi&le>, heHill, http://thehillco!/opinion/op%ed/229F$$%a%chance%to%proe%&ipartisanship%is%possi&le'Part of the pro&le! is that despite all the calls for bipartisanship" there ha4ebeen fe0 legislati4e opportunities that could ser4e as a catalyst forsustained cooperation across party lines tr-e catal"st for &ipartisanship needs to

&e !ore than an eas", hollo. endorse!ent It needs to be the product of toughcompromises" a substanti4e 4ictory of the broader national interesto4er narro0 parochial interests. In fact" 0e ha4e one suchopportunity 0ithin our reach that has all the marings of a potentialbipartisanship re starter6 trade. Qey leaders in the 2epublicanParty" including Ho-se Spea)er 0ohn @oehner @hio3 and Senate (aJorit" Eeader (itch

GcConnell K"3, hae alread" !ade clear that the" support ma5or pillars ofPresident Obama#s trade agenda. )eaders of the committees thato4ersee trade in Congress ha4e also 0ored together in a bipartisanmanner as recently as last year on )e" portions of the presidentAs a*enda, an opport-nit"

that eists once a*ain in the "ear ahead 7conomically" there is no Auestion that



epanding trade 0ould benet the national interest o4er parochialinterests ccordin* to Professor (atthe. Sla-*hter of the -c) B-siness School, trade li&erali4ation

has raised !ericaAs LP &" 1$ percent In toda"As ter!s, thatAs !ore than ]1#,$$ for eer" fa!il" in!erica, eer" "ear

There#s a narro0 0indo0 for passage

Hiang" 1%;= SiJia, 1/#$/2$15, >Proposed sia%PaciDc free trade area si*nalsstart of ne. era of trade cooperation>, So-th +hina (ornin* Post,http://...sc!pco!/&-siness/econo!"/article/1951F#/proposed%asia%paciDc%free%trade%area%si*nals%start%ne.%era%trade'Negotiations for TPP started in &==< but ha4e dragged on becauseof the diXculties of getting all the members to agree on the thornyissues of intellectual property, la&o-r and eniron!ental standards, and also &eca-se of

dierences .ithin the !erican political dispensation ><e are hearin* there is a US political

0indo0 of opportunity o4er the net couple of months" 0here there

might be an agreement bet0een Congress and the president on fast/trac authority,> Bollard said President Barac) Obama" 0ho is seeing tradepromotion authority from his o0n !emocratic Party as 0ell as the

2epublicans" last 0ee said in his State of the Union address toCongress that the US" not China" should be 0riting 0orld trade rules.>I thin) he?s J-st sa"in* to his co-ntr"!en that the"?e *ot a chance to set the standard .ith PP that.o-ld &e a ne. standard for re*ional and international trade a*ree!ents hat?s a isionar" state!ent,[&-t' "et to &e seen .hether achiea&le,> Bollard said



TP: Qey to Trade

TP: is ey to trade deals$SH" 1%1; <illia! Lalston, 1/1#/15, > Ni*ht @&a!a 6eeds to Hae

<ith e!ocrats>, <S0, http://....sJco!/articles/.illia!%*alston%a%D*ht%o&a!a%needs%to%hae%.ith%de!ocrats%1821192852'Gnited States rade epresentatie (ichael Nro!an is -nda-nted He has cond-cted the PP ne*otiations,he insists to !e in an interie., .ith the lessons of the past, incl-din* the 1998 6orth !erican Nree rade*ree!ent, Dr!l" in !ind In fact, he sa"s, “his is the rene*otiation of 6afta that @&a!a tal)ed a&o-t asa candidate in 2$$7,” a process that .ill prod-ce &rea)thro-*hs in areas of concern s-ch as la&or ri*hts

and eniron!ental protection He predicts that TPP 0ill be the most progressi4etrade agreement in histor y. <hether this .ill &e eno-*h to !ollif" his e!ocratic criticsre!ains to &e seen (r Nro!an also epresses conDdence that he co-ld concl-de a draft PP treat" .ith

o-r trade partners he reason: “74eryone is moti4ated to get it done.7plaining their shared determination" he underscored thesignicance of Hapan#s decision to participate in the negotiatingprocess6 “B" openin* 0apanAs !ar)et, eer"one .ill &eneDt” Trade eperts and4eterans of past negotiations belie4e that attaining this goal

reAuires trade/ promotion authorityMthe sooner the &etter $ithout TP:, the"

sa", our negotiating partners 0ould be reluctant to put their best andnal oers on the table @ne for!er *oern!ent oQcial told !e that 0apanese Pri!e (inister

Shin4 &e had !ade this lin) clear in a priate conersation draft PP that failed to crac) open 0apanAsa*ric-lt-ral !ar)et .o-ld disappoint !an" GS la.!a)ers and .ea)en s-pport for the a*ree!ent

74eryone 0ith 0hom I ha4e taled stresses ho0 4ital TP: is to amanageable legislati4e process. $ithout a closed rule that prohibitsamendments in the *ouse and its functional eAui4alent in theSenate" 0hich is 0hat TP: amounts to" the draft 0ould be eposedto hundreds of special/interest amendments. It is hard to &eliee that the Ho-se

and Senate .o-ld &e as li)el" to endorse an -p%or%do.n ote after the draft PP is -neiled than the" areri*ht no. !end!ents .o-ld force GS representaties &ac) to the &ar*ainin* ta&le



PC Qey

!ems are on the fenceonly a strong Obama push can getTP: passed

Needham" 1%& =ic)i, 1/27/15, >6e. e!ocrats .ant ass-rances onpart" s-pport on trade>, heHill, http://thehillco!/polic"/Dnance/2#1$72%ne.%de!ocrats%.ant%ass-rances%on%part"%s-pport%on%trade': group of *ouse !emocrats 0ho stand ready to support President

Obama#s trade agenda are asing Senate !emocrats and the $hite

*ouse to tae the lead on a historically diXcult issue for their

party. The W/member Ne0 !emocrat Coalition is liely ey to theObama administration#s eorts to round up enough 4otes soCongress can pass a trade promotion authority bill. So they 0antreassurances that they do not stand alone” on the pric)l" iss-e that ispittin* so!e li&eral e!ocrats a*ainst @&a!a, a Ho-se e!ocratic aide told

he Hill o that end, 6e. e!ocrats .ant the Senate to &e the Drst toconsider a trade pro!otion a-thorit" &ill, also )no.n as fast%trac), .hich.o-ld *ie +on*ress -p%or%do.n otes on an" trade a*ree!ents, s-ch as the

rans%PaciDc Partnership PP3, that reach +apitol Hill ote in s-pport is!-ch easier .hen their senators also are &ac)in* trade, the aide said hatpolitical coer co-ld co!e, for a start, fro! e!ocrats on the Senate Ninance+o!!ittee .here +hair!an @rrin Hatch %Gtah3 is ea*er to p-sh a &illthro-*h his co!!ittee &" the end of Ne&r-ar" Nor his part, GS radeepresentatie (ichael Froman reiterated during hearings Tuesday onCapitol *ill the Obama administration#s commitment to con4incing!emocrats to bac fast/trac and the trade deals. *e referred to the0hole/go4ernment approach of building support" 0hich includes a

full/court press from the president#s Cabinet. In fact" the Obamaadministration#s t0o/year long campaign to get trade/friendly!emocrats on board is 0oring " a *ouse !emocratic aide said. 2ep.2on Qind of $isconsin" chairman of the Ne0 !emocrats" has beenoutspoen in ad4ocating for a ne0 0ay to negotiate tradeagreements 0hile urging other members of his party to loo hard ata 0orld 0ithout the United States leading on trade. >I also thin) .eneed a proactie, a**ressie trade a*enda thatAs *oin* to .or) for !erican.or)ers and o-r &-sinesses,> Kind said <ednesda" on +%SP6As <ashin*ton

0o-rnal Qind?s group is maing its case to their o0n party on t0opoints the trade deals 0ill raise global labor and en4ironmentalstandards a ma5or issue for them and those 0ho might oppose

the deals are settling for a status Auo that#s 0orse for :merican0orers, an aide said >hatAs .h" the ad!inistration is tr"in* to *et corela&or and eniron!ental standards in the &od" of the a*ree!ent, so that .ecan p-sh standards -p fro! .here the" are, rather than tr"in* to co!pete.ith +hina in a race to the &otto!,” Kind said t a Ho-se <a"s and (eans+o!!ittee hearin* on -esda" .ith Nro!an, Kind said it doesnAt !a)e sensefor la.!a)ers to .holl" oppose the trade deals &efore seein* the! So he is-r*in* the !ost ocal fast%trac) opponents s-ch as ep osa eEa-ro %+onn3 to &e “en*a*ed in trade ne*otiations> “ItAs -p to each (e!&er of



+on*ress to &e personall" en*a*ed in that eort> Kind also p-shed &ac) as)the assertion !ade &" !an" opposed e!ocrats that Nro!an and his tea!arenAt proidin* eno-*h infor!ation on the trade deals “he GS tea!thatAs ne*otiatin* these a*ree!ents are on +apitol Hill all the ti!e,” Kindsaid on +%SP6 >he" .al) thro-*h tet, and the" sho. (e!&ers dierentchapters of .hatAs &ein* disc-ssed so that +on*ress can *-ide the! on .hat

the ne*otiatin* o&Jecties need to &e,” he said Ho-se (inorit" Eeader 6anc"Pelosi %+alif3 told he Hill in a recent interie. that .hile her !e!&ershae !an" concerns on trade she .on?t decide .hether she .ill s-pport fast%trac) -ntil she has seen .hat?s incl-ded in the PP (ean.hile, Ho-se andSenate ep-&licans hae epressed s-pport for fast%trac) and !oin*for.ard .ith trade a*ree!ents li)e the PP Spea)er 0ohn Boehner %@hio3said “I thin getting the trade promotion authority for the presidentthat he?s ased for is certainly liely,” on No 6e.s?s “Special eport.ith Bret Baier” on <ednesda" ni*ht B-t !emocrats ha4e been morecautious " 0ith many opposing the ambitious trade agenda o4erconcerns that the deals 0ill ship U.S. 5obs o4erseas and damage theeconomy. Ho-se (inorit" <hip Sten" Ho"er %(d3 said on -esda" that

the administration Bis maing an eort " in my 4ie0" to 0or 0ithmembers on both sides of the aisle to mae sure that this process istransparent. Still" he 0ants to allay !emocratic concerns beforelending support. BSteps are being taen to raise that condence" andif that occurs I thin that it?s possible for a signicant number ofmembers to support both TP: and TPP. @ut I thin those concernsneed to be met .B

Obama can get TP: if it remains his priorityNeedham" 1%&> =ic)i, 1/2F/15, >rade chief pitches Xfast%trac)A to+on*ress>, he Hill, https://thehillco!/&-siness%a%lo&&"in*/&-siness%a%lo&&"in*/2#$989%trade%chief%pitches%fast%trac)%to%con*ress'Froman called the push a 0hole go4ernment eort" mobli-ing thepresident and the Cabinet fully to get Congress to appro4e the TP: and the rans%PaciDc Partnership Ho-se <a"s and (eans +o!!ittee+hair!an Pa-l "an %<is3 pressed Nro!an to ratchet -p eorts to conincee!ocrats to *et on &oard .ith fast%trac) a-thorit" as .ell as the &roadertrade a*enda In response, Froman highlighted the 1 months that heand his trade team ha4e spent can4assing Capitol *ill taling to

la0maers from both parties about trade. *e said the Cabinet#s

fresh eorts should bolster support . ep-&licans on the Senate Ninance

+o!!ittee oiced s-pport for passa*e of a fast%trac) &ill and so-*htconDr!ation fro! Nro!an that the president .o-ld ta)e the lead Nro!an told

ep-&lican Sen an +oats Ind3 that the president has made hissupport clear" re3ected in his mo4e to employ his entire Cabinet inthe eort. I ha4e a great deal of support from the president ondo0n " it#s a priority for him" Nro!an said +oats said that the presidentAscall d-rin* his State of the Gnion address a .ee) a*o for e!ocrats andep-&licans to &ac) hi! on trade &ro-*ht the L@P to its feet faster than an"other iss-e “To get this done it has to be all/in " it has to be abo4epartisan politics" it#s got to be done in a bipartisan 0ay,” +oats said



Sen +h-c) Lrassle" %Io.a3 s-**ested the president 0ould ha4e to0or the phone 0ith senators to guarantee the W= 4otes neededto mo4e a TP: bill.

Obama#s lobbying 0ith dems is ey to TP:

@erman" 1%&& -ssell, 1/22/15, associate editor at he tlantic, .here hecoers political ne.s He .as preio-sl" a con*ressional reporter for he Hilland a <ashin*ton correspondent for he 6e. ;or) S-n, ><ill e!ocratsSpoil @&a!a?s rade InitiatiesR>, tlantic,http://...theatlanticco!/politics/archie/2$15/$1/.ill%de!ocrats%spoil%o&a!as%trade%initiatie/#78F1/'The Auestion no0 is" can !emocrats stop the Obama/EOP allianceR

he" co-ldn?t in 2$11, .hen the ep-&lican%led Ho-se and a e!ocratic Senateapproed lon*%stalled

deals .ith So-th Korea, +olo!&ia, and Pana!a This time around" the mobili-ationhas started early" 0ith !emocrats in both the *ouse and Senatetrying to blunt any momentum from Obama?s State of the Union call. ><e .ill do .hat .e can in the Senate to defeat this -nfort-nate proposal,> declared Bernie Sanders, the

=er!ont li&eral .ho is considerin* a lon*%shot &id for the presidenc" !erican .or)ers, he said, sho-ldnot >hae to co!pete a*ainst people in =ietna! .ho hae a !ini!-! .a*e of 5 cents an ho-r> $hile2epublicans are generally" as 2yan put it" a Bpro/trade party"B thereis di4ision 0ithin their rans as 0ell. Speaer Hohn @oehner has saidhe?ll need !emocratic 4otes to pass the fast/trac legislation in the*ouse" and the Obama administration is no0 maing lobbying callsto !emocrats. It?s an a.).ard con-ndr-! for the la!e%d-c) president @ig ne0 tradedeals may be one of the fe0 legacy/building items Obama canetract from the 2epublican Congress in his nal t0o years" but he?llha4e to ght 0ith his friends to get them.



:T UniAueness O4er0helms the )in

TP: can still go either 0ay!ems are strong and only apush by the $hite *ouse 0ill get it passed

Politico" 1%&1 o-* Pal!er and da! Behs-di, 1/21/2$15, >(ichaelNro!an, li&eral e!ocrats clash on trade a-thorit">, P@EII+@,http://...politicoco!/stor"/2$15/$1/!ichael%fro!an%li&eral%de!ocrats%trade%a-thorit"%1188F#ht!l'B-t !emocrats said they 0ere condent they could muster the 4otesnecessary to defeat the legislation" 0hich has the bacing of EOPleadership in both chambers Sen @ernie Sanders I%=t3 signaled his0illingness to lead the anti/fast/trac ght in the Senate" 0here <2epublicans 0ould only need si !emocrats to pre4ent a libuster

“<e .ill do .hat .e can in the Senate to defeat this -nfort-nate proposal,” he said at the +apitol Hill press

conference The opposition in both chambers 0ill be countered by an all/out push by the $hite *ouse to get fello0 !emocrats to pledge their

support . eEa-ro cited letters and state!ents fro! the last +on*ress, in .hich a &ipartisan *ro-p of

19$ !e!&ers in total oiced so!e leel of opposition to the le*islation, as a startin* point for D*htin* the

&ill : broad ma5ority of the 1 !emocrats in the *ouse are epectedto oppose the legislation" if past 4otes are any indication. @ut 0iththe EOP no0 holding a &W/seat ma5ority" those opposed to the bill0ill ha4e to rely on 2epublican defections to reach the &1/4otethreshold needed to defeat the bill. ep e&&ie in*ell %(ich3 said she to-red the

etroit a-to sho. last .ee) .ith her stateAs fello. fresh!an la.!a)ers and said the ep-&licans a!on*

the! !ade no co!!it!ent to the le*islation .hen as)ed a&o-t it “$e#re in that educationprocess " but people are not running to sign up for it either"” she said at

the press conference, addin* that separate letters opposin* fast trac) le*islation and de!andin* r-les inthe trade deals to *-ard a*ainst c-rrenc" !anip-lation are &ein* circ-lated a!on* Ho-se fresh!en

@ipartisan support for TP: no0" but it#ll reAuiresubstantial bargaining!aschle and )ott" 1%1W [Nor!er Sens o! aschle %S3 and rentEott %(iss3, 1/1/2$15, > chance to proe &ipartisanship is possi&le>,

heHill, http://thehillco!/opinion/op%ed/229F$$%a%chance%to%proe%&ipartisanship%is%possi&le'Part of the pro&le! is that despite all the calls for bipartisanship" there ha4ebeen fe0 legislati4e opportunities that could ser4e as a catalyst forsustained cooperation across party lines tr-e catal"st for &ipartisanship needs to

&e !ore than an eas", hollo. endorse!ent It needs to be the product of toughcompromises" a substanti4e 4ictory of the broader national interesto4er narro0 parochial interests. In fact" 0e ha4e one such

opportunity 0ithin our reach that has all the marings of a potentialbipartisanship re starter6 trade. Qey leaders in the 2epublicanParty" including Ho-se Spea)er 0ohn @oehner @hio3 and Senate (aJorit" Eeader (itch

GcConnell K"3, hae alread" !ade clear that the" support ma5or pillars ofPresident Obama#s trade agenda. )eaders of the committees thato4ersee trade in Congress ha4e also 0ored together in a bipartisanmanner as recently as last year on )e" portions of the presidentAs a*enda, an opport-nit"

that eists once a*ain in the "ear ahead 7conomically" there is no Auestion thatepanding trade 0ould benet the national interest o4er parochial



interests ccordin* to Professor (atthe. Sla-*hter of the -c) B-siness School, trade li&erali4ation

has raised !ericaAs LP &" 1$ percent In toda"As ter!s, thatAs !ore than ]1#,$$ for eer" fa!il" in!erica, eer" "ear



:T No TPP

TPP is closeObama 5ust needs Trade Promotion :uthorityto 0rap it up

!onnan 1%&> Sha.n, Ninancial i!es eporter, 1/2F/15, >GS trade chiefsa"s PaciDc deal is close>, Ninancial i!es,http://...ftco!/c!s/s/$/F7$$Fd2%a2f%11e8%a&e9%$$188fea&Fdeht!la44#VL8i9I+U'

:n ambitious Pacic 2im trade pact bet0een the US" Hapan and 1=other economies is nearing completion " the top US trade oXcial saidon Tuesday as the Obama administration stepped up its campaign tosecure congressional authority to conclude a deal. The commentsfrom Gie Froman" the US trade representati4e" are another signthat the proposed Trans/Pacic Partnership, .hich .o-ld coer 8$ percent of *lo&al econo!ic o-tp-t, is coming closer to fruition after !ore

than De "ears of ne*otiations Chief negotiators from the 1& TPPcountries are meeting in Ne0 Ror this 0ee 0hile oXcials from theUS and Hapan are due to meet separately in $ashington to try toconclude their o0n bilateral discussions o4er agricultural productsand cars. The contours of a nal TPPD agreement are coming intofocus" (r Nro!an told co!!ittees in the Senate and Ho-se ofepresentaties on -esda" “$e thin e4eryone is focused on gettingthis TPPD done . . . in a small number of months. (r Nro!an hasref-sed repeatedl" to set a tar*et for concl-din* the PP ne*otiations,insistin* that the content of a deal .o-ld deter!ine ti!in* B-t people closeto the tal)s sa" the US is determined to 0rap them up in the rst halfof &=1< so as to put an agreement before Congress for a 4ote before

the campaign for the &=1W US presidential election heats up HohnQey" Ne0 9ealand#s prime minister" said his discussions 0ith GrFroman and other TPP leaders at the $orld 7conomic Forum in!a4os last 0ee led him to belie4e a deal 0as at hand . There seemsto be strong feeling that a successful TPP could be negotiated in therst half of this year,” (r Ke" said “here .as !ore conDdence the PP.ill &e concl-ded than the GS%C-rope [trade a*ree!ent' and the ie.epressed to !e &" (i)e Nro!an .as that the" reall" felt the" .ere *ettin*-ite close” In his testi!on" to +on*ress on -esda" (r Nro!an said“important progress# had been made in the TPP negotiations o4ermaret access and in addressing issues such as intellectual property"digital trade and the treatment of state/o0ned enterprises . *e also

reiterated President @arac Obama#s call in his State of the Unionaddress last 0ee for the administration to be gi4en 0hat is formallyno0n as Trade Promotion :uthority . he GS +onstit-tion *ies +on*ressdo!ain oer international co!!erce B-t eer since ichard 6ion thele*islat-re has dele*ated the a-thorit" to ne*otiate trade a*ree!ents topresidents, settin* &road *oals and pro!isin* to hold si!ple -p%or%do.notes .ithin 9$ da"s on an" pact &ro-*ht &efore it That authority lastepired in &==> and Gr Obama needs it again in order to conclude

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d8a564aa-9d85-11e4-9b22-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3PwXmgJ1l

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8c253c5c-2056-11e3-b8c6-00144feab7de.html#axzz3PwXmgJ1l

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tpp-talks-could-be-wrapped-first-half-2015-key-bd-167825

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d8a564aa-9d85-11e4-9b22-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3PwXmgJ1l

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8c253c5c-2056-11e3-b8c6-00144feab7de.html#axzz3PwXmgJ1l

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tpp-talks-could-be-wrapped-first-half-2015-key-bd-167825



both the TPP and a slo0er/mo4ing negotiation 0ith the 7uropeanUnion o4er an e4en bigger potential agreement.



:T Obama Not Pushing

Of course Obama#s pushingThe *ill" 1%&1 =ic)i 6eedha!, 1/2$/15, >@&a!a !a)es trade case to

&oth parties>, heHill, http://thehillco!/polic"/Dnance/2#$18#%o&a!a%!a)es%the%case%to%&oth%parties%for%trade'President Obama urged both political parties on Tuesday night to gi4ehim the po0ers he needs to negotiate global trade deals. In hisState of the Union address on Tuesday night" the president arguedthat trade promotion authority 0ill help Congress pass high/standard agreements that 0ill put the United States in the forefrontof the global trading arena. BThat#s 0hy I?m asing both parties togi4e me trade promotion authority to protect !erican .or)ers, .ith stron* ne. tradedeals fro! sia to C-rope that aren?t J-st free, &-t fair,> he said in his Drst address &efore a ep-&lican%controlled +on*ress



MM:MM



No TPP%TP:

TPP and TP: support is d0indling Hacobi 1%&> Stephen, 1/2F/15, eec-tie director of the 6U%GS +o-ncil,

>Stephen 0aco&i: +loc) tic)s on trade tal)s as detractors *ro.>, 6e. UealandHerald, http://...n4heraldcon4/&-siness/ne.s/articlecf!RcZid^#a!po&Jectid^11#92$95'Nirst, the United States President and Congress ha4e yet to agree onthe o4er/riding ob5ecti4es of US trade policy. he +on*ressional election and the

ne. GS +on*ress, .hich has no. ta)en oQce, !a" assist the passa*e of rade Pro!otion -thorit"clarif"in* a .a" for.ard, proided President Barac) @&a!a and the !aJorit" ep-&licans can oerco!e

dierences on other iss-es Second, the Hapanese Eo4ernment 0ishes to continueto protect so/called Bsensiti4eB agricultural products . The !ietelection may ha4e strengthened the hand of Prime Ginister :be" buthe still faces opposition from 0ithin his o0n party %% in that respect &e and

@&a!a are in the sa!e position hird, there are substanti4e issues 0hichnegotiators ha4e not been able to resol4e . Guch has been agreed

but this does not apply to maret access" largely because of thestand/o bet0een the US and Hapan" or to other issues // intellectualproperty" in4estment" state/o0ned enterprises and en4ironment //on 0hich other participants" including Ne0 9ealand" are unliely to0ant to conclude until the maret access issue is settled. Thecon4entional thining is that if Trade Promotion :uthority is secured"it 0ill strengthen the hand of the US in seeing a conclusion to TPP.

0apan co-ld then &e coninced to sho. *reater ei&ilit" in a*ric-lt-re in anticipation of an a*ree!ent,

.hich .o-ld &oost its prod-ctiit" in other areas This scenario is not impossible" butpolitical 0ill" especially in the US Congress" is hard to predict. TPPhas a gro0ing number of detractors and business is becoming 0earyof the time that has been taen. To0ards the middle of this year the

early 5oceying for net year?s US Presidential election 0ill get under0ay . The political en4ironment could 0ell change once again for TPPand negotiators may need to loo to other a4enues to achie4e itsmuch/needed ob5ecti4es.



PC Not Qey

PC is irrele4ant to TP:it boils do0n to election calculusEuida" 1&%;= =ictoria, 12/1#/18, Politico rade eporter, >he L@P?s

diisie trade pla">, P@EII+@,http://...politicoco!/stor"/2$18/12/rep-&licans%trade%deal%11#F9$ht!l'“The !emocrats in the *ouse generally represent really safe!emocrat seats" so if I#m a !emocrat" I#m not 0orried about2epublicans coming in and nocing me out,” one con*ressional staer said in

descri&in* the in-ence of la&or I#m 0orried about someone challenging mefrom the left . This dynamic has become e4en more pronounced asmoderate !emocrats ha4e lost their seats, the aide said Lalston said e!ocratic

support for trade 0ill boil do0n to an intense local calculus.

“[!emocratic members of CongressD are going to as" LIs this onbalance benecial or not to my districtZA” Lalston said “If the ans.er is no, that

doesnAt !ean so!e of the! .onAt ote in faor of it an".a", &-t the"All s-re thin) t.ice : more

open trading regime is not eAually friendly to all sectors of theeconomy and certainly not to all congressional districts . (ean.hile,

ep-&licans co-ld p-sh to alienate e!ocrats on trade to sec-re !ore f-ndin* fro! &i* &-siness *ro-ps.ith deep poc)ets, s-ch as the GS +ha!&er of +o!!erce and 6ational ssociation of (an-fact-rers,.hich are &i* s-pporters of free trade deals



:T Trade

Trade is irrele4ant for 0ar@arbieri" 1; [Katherine, ssociate Professor of Political Science at the Gniersit" of So-th

+arolina, Ph in Political Science fro! Bin*ha!ton Gniersit", “Ccono!ic Interdependence: Path to

Peace or So-rce of Interstate +onictR” +hapter 1$ in “+onict, <ar, and Peace: n Introd-ction toScientiDc esearch”'

*o0 does interdependence aect 0ar , the !ost intense for! of conictR a&le 2 *ies the

empirical results he rarit" of .ars !a)es an" anal"sis of their ca-ses -ite diQc-lt, for ariations in interdependence .ill seldo! res-lt in the

occ-rrence of .ar s in the case of (Is, the lo*%li)elihood ratio tests for each !odel s-**est that the incl-sion of the ario-s !eas-res of interdependence and thecontrol aria&les i!proes o-r -nderstandin* of the factors aectin* the occ-rrence of .ar oer that o&tained fro! the n-ll !odel Ho.eer, the indiid-alinterdependence aria&les, alone, are not statisticall" si*niDcant his is not the case .ith conti*-it" and relatie capa&ilities, .hich are &oth statisticall" si*niDcant *ain,.e see that conti*-o-s d"ads are !ore conict%prone and that d"ads co!posed of states .ith -ne-al po.er are !ore paciDc than those .ith hi*hl" e-al po.er

S-rprisin*l", no eidence is proided to s-pport the co!!onl" held proposition that de!ocratic states are less li)el" to en*a*e in .ars .ith other de!ocratic statesW he

e4idence from the pre/$$II period pro4ides support for those

arguing that economic factors ha4e little" if any" in3uence on aectin*

leaders# decisions to engage in 0ar, &-t !an" of the control aria&les are also statisticall" insi*niDcant hese res-lts

sho-ld &e interpreted .ith ca-tion, since the sa!ple does not contain a s-Qcient n-!&er .ars to allo. -s to capt-re *reat ariations across dierent t"pes ofrelationships (an" o&serations of .ar are ecl-ded fro! the sa!ple &" irt-e of not hain* the correspondin* eplanator" !eas-res aria&le .o-ld hae to hae an

etre!el" stron* in-ence on conictMas does conti*-it"Mto Dnd si*niDcant res-lts W F +oncl-sions This study pro4ides little

empirical support for the liberal proposition that trade pro4ides a

path to interstate peace 74en after controlling for the in3uence of

contiguity " 5oint democracy" alliance ties" and relati4e capabilities , the

e4idence suggests that in most instances trade fails to deter

con3ict Instead, etensie economic interdependence increases the li)elihood that d"ads en*a*e in

!ilitari4ed disp-te ho.eer, it appears to ha4e little in3uence on the incidence of 0ar

he *reatest hope for peace appears to arise fro! s"!!etrical tradin* relationships Ho.eer, the da!penin* eect of s"!!etr" is oset &" the epansion of interstatelin)a*es hat is, etensie econo!ic lin)a*es, &e the" s"!!etrical or as"!!etrical, appear to pose the *reatest hindrance to peace thro-*h trade

No impact to tradethey mi up correlation and causationQesh" 1= [@!ar, senior lect-rer in the Political Science epart!ent at, and Ph in Political

Science fro!, @hio State Gniersit" afael e-en", prof of international political econo!" and ecolo*icalecono!ics at and Ph fro! Indiana Gniersit" and Brian ( Pollins, e!erit-s ssociate Prof of PoliticalScience at @hio State “rade and +onict: Proi!it", +o-ntr" Si4e, and (eas-res,” +onict (ana*e!entand Peace Science 2$1$ 2F: #, SLC Jo-rnals'

In all, any signal that trade brings peace remains 0ea and

inconsistent ,regardless of the .a" proi!it" is modeled in the conict e-ation The signal that

con3ict reduces trade, in contrast" is strong and consistent h-s, international

politics are clearly aecting dyadic trade" 0hile it is far less ob4ious

0hether trade s"ste!aticall" aects d"adic politics, and if it does, .hether that eect is con3ict dampening or conict a!plif"in* his is

.hat .e hae ter!ed in KP 2$$83 “he Pri!ac" of Politics” W F +oncl-sionW his st-d" reisited the si!-ltaneo-s e-ations !odel .e presented in KP 2$$83 and s-&Jected it to fo-r i!portant challen*es .o

of these challen*es concerned he speciDcation of the conict e-ation in o-r !odel re*ardin* the role of inter% capital distance and the si4es of &oth sides in a d"ad one -estioned the &ilateral trade data

ass-!ptions -sed in the treat!ent of 4ero and !issin* al-es, and one challen*e s-**ested a foc-s on fatal (Is as a n alternatie indicator to the .idel" -sed all%(I !eas-re W he theoretical and e!piricalanal"ses -sed to eplore proposed alternaties to o-r ori*inal .or) .ere instr-ctie and the e!pirical res-lts .ere infor!atie, &-t there are certainl" other le*iti!ate iss-es that the trade and conict researchco!!-nit" !a" contin-e to ponder Nor ea!ple, researchers !a" contin-e to .or) on -estions of !issin* &ilateral trade data, atte!pt to !oe &e"ond the near% ecl-sie -se of the (Is data as .e

conte!plate the !eanin* of “!ilitar" conict,” and -se, and etend the scope of, the Hare" Starr LIS%&ased &order data as one .a" to treat conti*-it" .ith !ore sophistication than the t"pical &inar" aria&le

W

he sin*le *reatest lesson of this st-d" is that f-t-re .or) st-d"in* the eect of international trade on international !ilitar" conict needs to e!plo" a si!-ltaneo-s speciDcation of the relationship &et.een the t.o

forcesThe results 0e obtained -nder all the # SC( a lternaties .e esti!ated yielded an important"

measurable eect of con3ict on trade Henceforth, .e .o-ld sa" .ith hi*h conDdence that any study of

the eect of trade on con3ict that ignores this re4erse fact is

practically guaranteed to produce estimates that contain

simultaneity bias. Such studies 0ill claim that trade brings peace"

0hen 0e no0 no0 that in a much broader range of circumstances"



it is peace that brings trade . W @-r !essa*e to those .ho .o-ld -se conict as one factor in a sin*le%e-ation !odel of trade is onl" sli*htl" l ess

ca-tionar" he" too face dan*ers in i*norin* the other side of the coin In one half of the # per!-tations .e eplored, the li)elihood of d"adic !ilitar" conict .as in-enced &" trade o.s In !ost tests .herethis eect s-rfaced, it .as positie, that is, trade !ade conict !ore li)el" B-t the direction of this eect is of no conse-ence for the lar*er lesson: trade !odelers i*nore the si!-ltaneit" &et.een international

co!!erce and political en!it" at their peril he" too r-n no s!all ris) of Dndin* the!seles deceied &" si!-ltaneit" &iasW @-r e!pirical Dndin*s sho. clearl" that international politics p-shes co!!erce in a

!-ch &roader ran*e of circ-!stances than the reerse In fact, .e co-ld Dnd no co!&ination of !odel choices, indicators, or data ass-!ptions that failed to "ield the res-lt that d"adic conict red-ces d"adic trade

)iberal claims regarding the eect of dyadic trade on dyadic con3ict

simply 0ere not robust in our ndings he" s-ried in onl" 7 of the # tests .e ran, and failed to hold -p .hen certain data

ass-!ptions .ere altered, and .ere serio-sl" -lnera&le to indicator choices re*ardin* inter%capital distance, conict, and national si4e







Qeystone



Topshelf



1NC

Qeystone 0ill pass but is 5ust short of enough 4otes to be4eto/proof push from the eecuti4e branch is ey to

pre4ent passage$alsh" &%; [eirdre, 2/#/15, Senior +on*ressional Prod-cer for +66,“Settin* -p Drst eto, Ho-se to ote on Ke"stone &ill net .ee),”http://...cnnco!/2$15/$2/$#/politics/)e"stone%pipeline%ho-se%ote/'<ashin*ton +663MSettin* -p the Drst presidential eto, the Ho-se ofepresentaties .ill ote net .ee) on the Senate%passed &ill to approe theKe"stone E pipeline , .hich .o-ld transport oil fro! +anada to the L-lf of(eico Ho-se (aJorit" Eeader Kein (c+arth", %+alifornia, told reporters

-esda" that the !eas-re .o-ld pass and .o-ld &e sent to the President?sdes) he Ho-se alread" passed a si!ilar ersion of the le*islation last!onth, &-t rather than reconcilin* the !inor dierences on the t.o &ills in aconference co!!ittee, Ho-se ep-&lican leaders decided to *o the -ic)est

ro-te and ta)e -p the Senate &ill fter ta)in* control of &oth cha!&ers of+on*ress this "ear &oth Ho-se and Senate L@P leaders !ade the D*ht oerKe"stone their Drst le*islatie priorit" East .ee) nine Senate e!ocrats

Joined ep-&licans to &ac) the le*islation, &-t proponents of the pipeline fellshort of sec-rin* eno-*h otes to oerride a eto President Barac) @&a!ahas said the decision on .hether or not to !oe for.ard .ith the pipelinesho-ld reside .ith the eec-tie &ranch and o.ed he .o-ld not si*n an"le*islation to approe Ke"stone

((Insert )in *ere++

Qeystone causes rampant 0arming

Eoldenberg" &%; [S-4anne, 2/#/15, GS eniron!ental correspondent to the L-ardian in

<ashin*ton +, “Ke"stone Pipeline: @&a!a Lien Boost Nro! CP eport eisin* +li!ate I!pact,”http://...the*-ardianco!/eniron!ent/2$15/fe&/$#/)e"stone%l%pipeline%cli!ate%i!pact%oil%prices'

Nallin* oil prices hae chan*ed the econo!ic ia&ilit" of the Ke"stone Epipeline O and that !eans the proJect .o-ld res-lt in !-ch hi*her car&onpoll-tion, the Cniron!ental Protection *enc" CP3 said on -esda" he Dndin*

*ies Barac) @&a!a ne. *ro-nds on .hich to reJect the pipeline, onl" da"s after the Senate oted to force approal of the proJect and as theHo-se ep-&lican leadership !oed to a Dnal ote that co-ld send a pipeline &ill to.ard the presidentAs des) as soon as net .ee)W In a

letter to the State epart!ent, the 7P: said the recent drop in oil prices meant thatKe"stone .o-ld indeed pro!ote f-rther epansion of the :lberta tarsands" unleashing more *reenho-se *as e!issions and .orsenin* cli!ate

chan*e. “ Until ongoing eorts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

associated 0ith the production of oil sands are more successful and0idespread de4elopment of oil sands crude represents a signicant

increase in greenhouse gas emissions" ” the CPAs assistant

ad!inistrator, +"nthia Liles, .rote in a letter posted on the a*enc"As

.e&siteW The agency said building the pipeline could increase

emissions by as much as &>.m metric tonnes a year V almost as

much as building eight ne0 coal/red po0er plants W +a!pai*ners said the Dndin*



*ae @&a!a all the infor!ation he needed to reJect the pipeline @&a!a had earlier said he .o-ld ta)e cli!ate chan*e into acco-nt .henrenderin* his Dnal decision on the proJectW “s of toda" the president has all the nails that he needs to close the lid on this partic-lar&oondo**le of a coQn,” Bill (cKi&&en, the fo-nder of #5$or*, .hich led eniron!ental opposition to the pipeline, told a conference call .ithreportersW he president has Dnal a-thorit" oer the pipeline O !-ch to the fr-stration of rans+anada, the pipeline co!pan", .hich has &eentr"in* to &-ild the proJect for !ore than si "earsW rans+anada reiterated that prod-ction in the l&erta tar sands .as epandin* an".a",s-**estin* that Ke"stone .o-ld hae no eect on cli!ate chan*e “he oil that Ke"stone E .ill delier is *ettin* to !ar)et toda" O that is afact,” Sha.n Ho.ard, a spo)es!an for the co!pan", .rote in an e!ailW he State epart!ent had earlier concl-ded that Ke"stone .o-ldhae little i!pact on deelopin* the tar sands O and that the oil .o-ld &e etracted an".a"W Ho.eer, one "ear later, the ass-!ptions in theState epart!ent reie. no lon*er held, the CP said Nallin* oil prices !ade it less li)el" prod-cers .o-ld pa" the hi*h costs of shippin* &"rail, the a*enc" fo-ndW “Lien the recent aria&ilit" in oil prices, it is i!portant to reisit these concl-sions,” the CP saidW <ith oil tradin*

&elo. ]5$ a &arrel, the a*enc" .ent on: “ Construction of the pipeline is pro5ected tochange the economics of oil sands de4elopment and result in

increased oil sands production" and the accompanying greenhouse

gas emissions" o4er 0hat 0ould other0ise occur ”W he CP also raised -estions a&o-t

the State epart!entAs reie. of alternatie ro-tes to the Ke"stone E he pipeline crosses three states, and has enco-ntered le*alopposition fro! lando.ners in 6e&ras)aW he latest Dndin* fro! the CP oers @&a!a !ore solid *ro-nds on .hich to reJect Ke"stoneWep-&licans in +on*ress hae also J-!ped on the pipeline, !a)in* it one of their top le*islatie priorities and otin* to ta)e the decision oerthe pipeline o-t of @&a!aAs handsW @n -esda", Ho-se !aJorit" leader Kein (c+arth" said he .o-ld !oe to &rin* the Senate &ill -p forde&ate net .ee), settin* -p the lon*%a.aited sho.do.n .ith the presidentAs eto penW he <hite Ho-se said @&a!a .o-ld eto an" la.see)in* to force approal of the proJect @&a!a has said that cli!ate chan*e .ill factor into that decisionW +a!pai*ners said the CP Dndin*left @&a!a .ill little option &-t to t-rn it do.nW “he Cniron!ental Protection *enc" has J-st aQr!ed .hat has &een clear all alon*: the

Ke"stone E tar sands pipeline fails the presidentAs cli!ate test,” said (ichael Br-ne, president of the Sierra +l-&W “ These

comments re/conrm that this dirty and dangerous pro5ect 0ould

signicantly increase carbon pollution. hatAs the standard thepresident has set for reJectin* Ke"stone E, so .e f-ll" epect hi! to do J-stthat”

7tinction!eibel &==> err", >Norei*n airs Strate*": Eo*ic of !ericanStatecraft,> +oncl-sion: !erican Norei*n airs Strate*" oda"3Ninall", there is one ma5or eistential threat to !erican sec-rit" as .ell as

prosperit"3 of a noniolent nat-re, .hich, tho-*h far in the f-t-re, de!ands -r*ent action It is thethreat of global 0arming to the stability of the climate upon 0hichall earthly life depends. Scientists 0orld0ide ha4e been obser4ingthe gathering of this threat for three decades no0" and 0hat 0as

once a mere possibility has passed through probability to nearcertainty . Indeed not one of more than '== articles on climatechange published in refereed scientic 5ournals from 1''; to &==;doubted that anthropogenic 0arming is occurring. “In le*iti!ate scientiDc

circles,” .rites Cli4a&eth Kol&ert, “it is 4irtually impossible to nd e4idence ofdisagreement o4er the fundamentals of global 0arming. 74idencefrom a 4ast international scientic monitoring eort accumulatesalmost 0eely" as this sample of ne0spaper reports sho0s6 aninternational panel predicts brutal droughts" 3oods and 4iolentstorms across the planet o4er the net cent-r"” cli!ate chan*e co-ld “literall" alter

ocean c-rrents, .ipe a.a" h-*e portions of lpine Sno.caps and aid the spread of cholera and !alaria”“*laciers in the ntarctic and in Lreenland are !eltin* !-ch faster than epected, and\.orld.ide, plantsare &loo!in* seeral da"s earlier than a decade a*o” “risin* sea te!perat-res hae &een acco!panied&" a si*niDcant *lo&al increase in the !ost destr-ctie h-rricanes” “6S scientists hae concl-ded fro!direct te!perat-re !eas-re!ents that 2$$5 .as the hottest "ear on record, .ith 1997 a close second”

“CarthAs 0arming climate is estimated to contribute to !ore than 15$,$$$ deaths

and 5 !illion illnesses each "ear” as disease spreads “.idespread &leachin* fro! eas to

rinidad\)illed &road s.aths of corals” d-e to a 2%de*ree rise in sea te!perat-res “he .orld is slo.l"disinte*ratin*,” concl-ded In-it h-nter 6oah (et-, .ho lies #$ !iles fro! the rctic +ircle “he" call itcli!ate chan*e\&-t .e J-st call it &rea)in* -p” Nro! the fo-ndin* of the Drst cities so!e ,$$$ "ears a*o-ntil the &e*innin* of the ind-strial reol-tion, car&on dioide leels in the at!osphere re!ained relatiel"constant at a&o-t 27$ parts per !illion pp!3 t present the" are acceleratin* to.ard 8$$ pp!, and &"2$5$ the" .ill reach 5$$ pp!, a&o-t do-&le pre%ind-strial leels Gnfort-natel", at!ospheric +@2 lasts



a&o-t a cent-r", so there is no .a" i!!ediatel" to red-ce leels, onl" to slo. their increase, 0e arethus in for signicant global 0arming the only debate is ho0 muchand ho0 serous the eects 0ill be . s the ne.spaper stories -oted a&oe sho., .e

are alread" eperiencin* the eects of 1%2 de*ree .ar!in* in !ore iolent stor!s, spread of disease,

!ass die os of plants and animals" species etinction" and threatenedinundation of lo0/lying countries li)e the PaciDc nation of Kiri&ati and the 6etherlands at

a .ar!in* of 5 de*rees or less the Lreenland and <est ntarctic ice sheets co-ld disinte*rate, leadingto a sea le4el of rise of &= feet that 0ould co4er North Carolina#souter bans" s0amp the southern third of Florida" and in-ndate (anhattan -p

to the !iddle of Lreen.ich =illa*e :nother catastrophic eect 0ould be thecollapse of the :tlantic thermohaline circulation that )eeps the .inter .eatherin C-rope far .ar!er than its latit-de .o-ld other.ise allo. Ccono!ist <illia! +line once esti!ated theda!a*e to the Gnited States alone fro! !oderate leels of .ar!in* at 1% percent of LP ann-all"

seere .ar!in* co-ld cost 1#%2 percent of LP B-t the most frightening scenario isruna0ay greenhouse 0arming" based on positi4e feedbac from thebuildup of 0ater 4apor in the atmosphere that is both caused by andcauses hotter surface temperatures. Past ice a*e transitions, associated .ith onl" 5%1$de*ree chan*es in aera*e *lo&al te!perat-res, too) place in J-st decades, een tho-*h no one .as thenpo-rin* eer%increasin* a!o-nts of car&on into the at!osphere Naced .ith this specter, the &est one can

concl-de is that “h-!an)indAs contin-in* enhance!ent of the nat-ral *reenho-se eect is a)in to pla"in*-ssian ro-lette .ith the earthAs cli!ate and h-!anit"As life s-pport s"ste! t .orst, sa"s ph"sics

professor (art" Hoert of 6e. ;or) Gniersit", “0e#re 5ust going to burn e4erythingup .eAre *oin* to het the at!osphere to the te!perat-re it .as in the +retaceo-s .hen there .ere

crocodiles at the poles, and then e4erything 0ill collapse . -rin* the +old <ar, astrono!er

+arl Sa*an pop-lari4ed a theor" of n-clear .inter to descri&e ho. a ther!on-clear .ar &et.een theGntied States and the Soiet Gnion .o-ld not onl" destro" &oth co-ntries &-t possi&le end life on this

planet Elobal 0arming is the post/Cold $ar era#s eAui4alent of nuclear0inter at least as serious and considerably better supportedscientically @er the long run it puts dangers form terrorism andtraditional military challenges to shame. It is a threat not only to thesecurity and prosperity to the United States" but potentially to thecontinued eistence of life on this planet.



&NC O,Qeystone 0ill pass but is still 4e 4otes short of being4eto/proof. Only Obama#s pressure and threat of a 4eto iseeping the remaining democrats in line. The plan

changes that and allo0s a 4eto/proof ma5ority. Qeystonecauses rampant increases in emissions 0hich ensuresruna0ay 0arming. That causes etinction.

Out0eighs and turns the case6 the !eibel e4idence is onre in this debate. $arming is the single most importantris of etinction. : preponderance of e4idence andscientic consensus indicates that 0arming is real andaccelerating. !eibel then goes on to do the impact calcfor me. The impact to 0arming is eAui4alent to that of

nuclear 0inter" 0ith the eception that the impact ofnuclear 0inter is less supported than 0arming. $armingis also a threat to security and prosperity. That meansimpacts lie con3ict and resource 0ars 0ill only beeacerbated by 0arming.



&NC U8 $all

Obama is sta4ing of Qeystone but 2epublicans are only afe0 4otes short

$ood" &% [0a!es, 2/8/15, political reporter for +al*ar" Herald, “s Prentice lo&&ies for Ke"stonepipeline, Sen (c+ain sa"s don?t epect a -ic) D,” http://cal*ar"heraldco!/ne.s/politics/as%prentice%lo&&ies%for%)e"stone%pipeline%sen%!ccain%sa"s%dont%epect%a%-ic)%D'

Pre!ier 0i! Prentice is opti!istic the Der" de&ate aro-nd the lon*%dela"edKe"stone E oil pipeline is Dnall" co!in* to a head, &-t one pro!inent GSsenator sa"s +anadians sho-ldnAt &e holdin* their &reath J-st "et Prentice,.ho is in <ashin*ton this .ee) as part of eorts to p-sh for.ard

rans+anada +orpAs ]7%&illion pipeline, said (onda" his sense is that theKe"stone sa*a is in its “closin* chapter” B-t ri4ona Sen 0ohn (c+ain said

-esda" he did not epect a -ic) resol-tion on Ke"stone, .hich has &eco!ethe s-&Ject of a ferocio-s political &attle that has pitted the e!ocratic <hiteHo-se a*ainst the ep-&lican%!aJorit" GS +on*ress “6o, I donAt,” the 2$$7ep-&lican presidential no!inee told the Herald “I hope the"Are ri*ht &-t

.eAre *oin* to see a presidential3 eto \ I donAt thin) ri*ht no. .e hae Fotes to oerride his eto” he GS Senate oted 2 to # last .ee) toapproe Ke"stone M a pipeline ai!ed at lin)in* l&ertaAs oilsands to L-lf+oast reDneries M &-t President Barac) @&a!a has pled*ed to )ill the &ill sfor attachin* pipeline approal to another piece of le*islation , as Prentice saidearlier this .ee) !i*ht occ-r, (c+ain replied: “@h, .eAll )eep tr"in*”Prentice said -esda" he fo-nd solid s-pport for Ke"stone as he spent !-chof his da" !eetin* .ith !erican +on*ressional leaders, &-t the oil pipelinereceied so!e &ad ne.s for its i!!ediate prospects

Qeystone is < 4otes short but any contro4ersy could alterthe balance!ystra" 1%&' [(att, 1/29/15, political correspondent for the S-n 6e.s, “KC;S@6C E PIPCEI6C

CBC C+HCS ?+E@SI6L +HPC?: PC6I+C”http://...s-nne.snet.or)ca/s-nne.s/politics/archies/2$15/$2/2$15$2$2%2$155$ht!l'

C(@6@6 % l&erta Pre!ier 0i! Prentice sa"s there?s >a sense that .e?re inthe closin* chapter> of the Ke"stone E pipeline de&ate in <ashin*ton, +,.here he !et .ith representaties fro! GS President Barac) @&a!a?s oQce(onda" Prentice?s fo-r%da" isit to <ashin*ton co!es as the ep-&lican%led+on*ress heads to.ards a sho.do.n .ith @&a!a oer the controersialpipeline East .ee), the GS Senate passed a &ipartisan &ill approin*

rans+anada?s ]7 &illion pipeline proJect, &-t fell De otes short of then-!&er needed to oerride a presidential eto Prentice said he still epects@&a!a to eto an" Ke"stone E &ill that co!es for.ard as the GS State

epart!ent contin-es a national interest reie. of the controersial pipeline>I?! not here to insert !"self in the political d"na!ic that?s ta)in* place&et.een the president and the GS +on*ress I?! J-st here to !a)e s-re thatthe facts are strai*ht,> said Prentice in a ne.s conference (onda" >I .o-ldsa", &ased on the sense that I?e had tal)in* to people and the co!!entsthat .ere !ade &" the Secretar" of State 0ohn3 Kerr" in Boston "esterda",there is a sense that .e?re in the closin* chapter of this .hole disc-ssion



aro-nd the Ke"stone pipeline, &-t I cannot tell "o- .hether that translatesinto da"s or .ee)s>

2epublicans are only < 4otes shy of ha4ing a 4eto/proofma5ority Redlin" 1%;1 [e&orah, 1/#1/15, &-siness col-!nist .ith the +al*ar" Herald, “;edlin: Ke"stone E

oers @&a!a opport-nit" to ens-re ener*" sec-rit",” http://cal*ar"heraldco!/&-siness/ener*"/"edlin%)e"stones%lon*%tro-&led%road%contin-es'

he stando &et.een President Barac) @&a!a and the GS Senate !oed astep closer to an all%o-t sho.do.n this .ee) as le*islation to approe theKe"stone E pipeline proJect passed &" a ote of 2 to #, De otes sh" ofthe !a*ic n-!&er needed to oerride a presidential eto h-rsda"As otefollo.ed the passa*e of si!ilar le*islation in the Ho-se earlier this !onth anda 6e&ras)a S-pre!e +o-rt r-lin* aQr!in* the constit-tionalit" of that stateAs*oernor to approe the pipelineAs ro-tin* Nor those )eepin* trac), itAs the1$th ti!e in seen "ears the Ho-se has &ac)ed Ke"stone E hese recentdeelop!ents point to @&a!a &ein* on increasin*l" sha)" *ro-nd in ter!s of credi&le reasons for not approin* the proJect



Qeystone $arming

Qeystone 0ill eacerbate global 0armingNeuhauser" &%; [lan, 2/#/15, ener*", eniron!ent, and SC( reporter for GS 6e.s, “CP:

Ke"stone E <ill I!pact Llo&al <ar!in*,” http://...-sne.sco!/ne.s/articles/2$15/$2/$#/epa%)e"stone%

l%pipeline%.ill%i!pact%*lo&al%.ar!in*'

<ith oil prices hittin* a De%"ear lo., &-ildin* the Ke"stone E pipelineetension co-ld ena&le oil co!panies to epand deelop!ent of +anadaAs tarsands, increasin* *reenho-se *as e!issions that contri&-te to cli!atechan*e, the Cniron!ental Protection *enc" said in a letter to the Stateepart!ent this .ee) “+onstr-ction of the pipeline is proJected to chan*ethe econo!ics of oil sands deelop!ent and res-lt in increased oil sandsprod-ction, and the acco!pan"in* *reenho-se *as e!issions, oer .hat.o-ld other.ise occ-r,” the CP said President Barac) @&a!a has said he.o-ld onl" approe the 1,1F9%!ile pipeline if it did “not si*niDcantl"eacer&ate the pro&le! of car&on poll-tion” he ]58 &illion proJect re-ireshis approal &eca-se it crosses an international &o-ndar" he State

epart!ent is cond-ctin* a reie. to deter!ine .hether the pipeline is inthe co-ntr"?s “national interest” In a 0an-ar" 2$18 eniron!ental i!pactstate!ent, the State epart!ent concl-ded that Ke"stone E .o-ld notaect car&on e!issions @il co!panies, it said, .o-ld deelop the tar sandsre*ardless of .hether the pipeline is &-ilt B-t, the CP ar*-ed in its letter(onda", “*ien the recent aria&ilit" in oil prices, it is i!portant to reisitthese concl-sions” Nro! 0an-ar" to 0-ne of last "ear, prices of &ench!ar)<est eas Inter!ediate and Brent cr-de oil acillated &et.een a&o-t ]9$and ]11$ per &arrel hen the" fell o a cli, droppin* to a&o-t ]5$ per &arrelas the GS ener*" &oo! inJected h-*e a!o-nts of oil into a !ar)et alread"crippled &" .ea) de!and fro! a sl-**ish *lo&al econo!" eelopin* the tarsands, !ean.hile, is a costl" endeaor: -rnin* a proDt on a ne. .ell

re-ires a !ar)et price of ]7 to ]1$ per &arrel, accordin* to a 0-l" report&" the +anadian Cner*" esearch Instit-te Hence, pipeline opponents ar*-e,tar sands co!panies si!pl" cannot aord an"!ore to ship cr-de &" rail ortr-c), .hich is !ore epensie than sendin* it &" pipeline o *et an".hereclose to !a)in* a proDt on ne. tar sands .ells , critics add, co!panies needKe"stone E nd that !eans approin* the pipeline .o-ld res-lt in far !ore*reenho-se *ases escapin* into the at!osphere , there&" ca-sin* the proJectto -n) @&a!aAs so%called cli!ate test



Qeystone Irrele4ant

No need for Qeystonemoots all their oenseClar et al" &% [2/8/15, aron +lar), E"nn oan, and an (-rta-*h, correspondents for

Bloo!&er*, “6o Ke"stone, no pro&le! for +anadian oil see)in* ports: Cner*",”

http://...ore*onlieco!/&-siness/indessf/2$15/$2/noZ)e"stoneZnoZpro&le!ZforZcanht!l'

<hile the de&ate intensiDes oer .hether rans+anada +orp?s Ke"stone Epipeline sho-ld &e approed, traders are -ietl" settin* -p alternatie ro-testo ship +anadian oil fro! GS ports t least De rail%to%!arine proJects hae&een proposed in the state of <ashin*ton that .o-ld allo. the eport ordo!estic ship!ent of !ore than 5$$,$$$ &arrels a da" of oil ter!inal in@re*on is operational alread" and is &ein* -p*raded to handle essels thatcarr" !ore than #$$,$$$ &arrels of cr-de he proposed depots haen?treceied the national attention of Ke"stone E &eca-se the" are in o&sc-replaces li)e Lra"s Har&or +o-nt", <ashin*ton, perhaps &est )no.n as the&irth place of the late 6irana lead sin*er K-rt +o&ain <hile GS de!and fori!ported li*ht oil has slo.ed a!id the shale &oo! %% leain* +anada

desperate to reach *lo&al !ar)ets %% the ter!inals !i*ht also &e -sed to shipdo!estic oil oerseas if a &an on GS eports is lifted >If the econo!ics .or)o-t, <ashin*ton state in partic-lar co-ld &eco!e a depot for lar*e scale+anadian cr-de eports,> said Cric de Place, a polic" director at Si*htlineInstit-te, a Seattle%&ased non%proDt >If the GS eport &an *ets lifted, then"o- co-ld see the 6orth.est &eco!e a !aJor thro-*hp-t ro-te for oil eportsto So-th Korea, 0apan and northeast +hina>



MM: :ns0ersMM



UniAueness

No 4eto proof ma5ority but it#ll pass as a rider on the TIbill

The *ill" 1%&1 [Ben Ka!isar, 1/21/15, >ep-&lican hints at Ke"stone&ac)-p plan>, heHill, http://thehillco!/polic"/ener*"%eniron!ent/2#$25#%rep-&lican%hints%at%)e"stone%&ac)-p%plan'2epublicans ha4e a bacup plan for approin* the Qeystone E oil pipeline if

President Obama 4etoes the bill no0 mo4ing through the Senate" atop *ouse 2epublican suggested $ednesday. Ho-se -les +o!!ittee +hair!an

Pete Sessions %eas3 str-c) a positie tone a&o-t the pipeline D*ht in a radio interie., s-**estin* theEOP could ha4e other 0ays to secure a 4eto/proof ma5ority for thepipeline. B*e may 4eto this thing and 0e may not ha4e the 4otes too4erturn it" but he is going to see it on a transportationinfrastructure bill and 0e?re going to gi4e it to him 0ith == 4otes ">

Sessions said on the allas%Nort <orth%area “(ar) ais adio Sho.” >$e are going to get

Qeystone pipeline because, (ar), it represents so many attributes that0e?4e been ghting about and that :mericans need> Senators are .or)in*

thro-*h a series of a!end!ents to a Ke"stone &ill that passed the Ho-se earlier this !onth, .ith .or)epected to stretch on for .ee)s -nder (aJorit" Eeader (itch (c+onnellAs %K"3 “open a!end!ent”process <hile the Ke"stone &ill is epected to pass, the <hite Ho-se has !ade clear that @&a!a .ill etoit, ar*-in* the State epart!entAs reie. of the +anada%to%eas pipeline sho-ld &e allo.ed to r-n its

co-rse 2epublicans appear short of the t0o/thirds ma5ority they 0ouldneed in the *ouse and Senate to o4erride a 4eto" but ha4e othertools for trying to re4i4e the ght in the months ahead. If they couldget a Qeystone pro4ision into a larger transportation bill that passesCongress, it .o-ld create a to-*h choice for @&a!a, .ho has repeatedl" stressed the need for

spendin* on infrastr-ct-re

No chance of a 4eto proof ma5oritydi4ided EOP" Obamapopularity" rallying democrats" and too many amendmentsPianin and Ear4er" 1%&' [1/29/15, Cric and o&, <ashin*ton Cditor and + B-rea-

+hief Cric Pianin is a eteran Jo-rnalist .ho has coered the federal *oern!ent, con*ressional &-d*et andta iss-es, and national politics He spent oer 25 "ears at he <ashin*ton Post, >@&a!aAs =eto Pen(i*htier han L@P S.ords>, Niscal i!es, http://...theDscalti!esco!/2$15/$1/29/@&a!as%=eto%Pen%(i*htier%L@P%S.ords'

There 0as a lot of bra4e tal among Senate !emocrats as 0ell as2epublicans of slapping ne0 economic sanctions on Iran een &efore the

@&a!a ad!inistration co!pleted its latest ro-nd of ne*otiations on restrainin* ehranAs n-clear pro*ra! B-t that0as before President Obama rene0ed his threat to 4eto thelegislation during his State of the Union address last .ee) “here are no *-arantees

ne*otiations .ill s-cceed, and I )eep all options on the ta&le to preent a n-clear Iran,” @&a!a said in the speech “B-tne. sanctions passed &" this +on*ress, at this !o!ent in ti!e, .ill all &-t *-arantee that diplo!ac" fails O alienatin*

!erica fro! its allies and ens-rin* that Iran starts -p its n-clear pro*ra! a*ain” @n -esda", Sen o&ert

Genende- 603, the raning !emocrat on the Senate Foreign 2elations

Committee" and nine other in3uential !emocrats baced do0n O tellin*

@&a!a the" .o-ld hold o -ntil after a late%(arch deadline for the GS and Iran to co!plete .or) on the a*ree!ent+on*ressional leaders li)e Senate Norei*n elations +o!!ittee +hair Bo& +or)er of ennessee !a" eent-all" co!e &ac)

.ith to-*h sanctions le*islation if @&a!aAs ne*otiatin* tea! falls short B-t for no., Obama has scored atactical 4ictory that buys State !epartment negotiators time.Obama#s 4eto strategy has been paying other di4idends in shapingthe legislati4e agenda in the earl" *oin* of the 118th +on*ress, !-ch to the cha*rin of !an"



conseraties 7mboldened by his rising appro4al rating and di4isions0ithin the EOP" the president 0ho 4etoed only t0o minor bills upuntil no0 is threatening to 4eto at least 4e others. Ho-se ep-&licans

threatened to -se the ept of Ho!eland Sec-rit" ann-al spendin* &ill to &loc) i!ple!entation of @&a!aAs eec-tieorder protectin* nearl" De !illion ille*al i!!i*rants fro! deportation he" still !a" !oe ahead on that plan to placatean*r" conseraties and ea Part" !e!&ers B-t after @&a!aAs eto threat, Spea)er 0ohn Boehner %@H3 and other L@P!e!&ers are eplorin* another .a" to ta)e the president to co-rt a*ain to challen*e the constit-tionalit" of his eec-tie

action nd prospects for passage of legislation to bypass Obama andforce the appro4al of the Qeystone _) Pipeline pro5ect are fadingfast: he Ho-se%passed le*islation has &een !ired in a t.o%.ee) de&ate on the Senate oor Senate (aJorit" Eeader

(itch (c+onnell %K;3 !a" eent-all" prod-ce a &ill that co-ld oerco!e a presidential eto in the Senate, so!e

o&serers sa" B-t the legislation has been loaded 0ith so manyamendments to placate 2epublican and !emocratic senators that@oehner may ha4e trouble achie4ing nal passage of the bill on the*ouse 3oor V much less amassing the &'= 4otes he#d need too4erride a 4eto ides to ep-&lican la.!a)ers ta)e stron* eception to an" s-**estion @&a!a is hain* his

.a" .ith his eto threat “<e are considerin* liti*ation in addition to le*islatie options li)e the HS &ill O not in place ofthe!,” said (ichael Steel, a spo)es!an for Boehner “I also donAt a*ree .ith "o-r assess!ent on the Ke"stone pipeline orIran” on Ste.art, a (c+onnell spo)es!an, noted, “<e had the sa!e n-!&er of s-pporters/co%sponsors on Ke"stone&efore the eto threat as after (enende4 has ipped on Iran nd the &attle lines on i!!i*ration .ere dra.n lon* a*o”

;et others see L@P reaction to @&a!aAs eto threats -ite dierentl" “The president is doing

eactly 0hat you#d epect him to do,” said an Holler, co!!-nications director for Herita*ection, an in-ential conseratie lo&&"in* *ro-p associated .ith the Herita*e No-ndation >HeAs .aitin* for ep-&licansto step -p and challen*e hi! on so!ethin* B-t if "o- loo) at the past fe. "ears, "o- are hard pressed to Dnd a ti!e

.hen the ep-&lican Part" !ade a hard challen*e to .hat the president is doin*” Holler added, “There is amystiAue around the presidency ... that if he dra0s a line in the sandthere is no 0ay of o4ercoming it. In !an" .a"s, Congress has played intothis notion that the eecuti4e branch is the superior branch" not a coe-al

&ranch If Senate 2epublicans .ere to dra. a line in the sand ri*ht no., the president .o-ld la-*h at

the!, &eca-se the" ha4en#t sho0n a 0illingness to defend their turf ” (oreoer,

.ith !an" insiders .arnin* of the dan*ers of the Ho-se L@P ta!perin* .ith HSAs operatin* &-d*et a!id *lo&al terrorist

threats, “:ll the signs point to them not being 0illing to tae on thisght right no0"” Holler said 0ohn Uo*&", a pro!inent pollster and political anal"st, said thepresident#s rising appro4al rating V approaching <= percent right

no0 V has gi4en him added le4erage “I canAt sa" it an" &etter than a !illennial pop sin*er

na!ed (e*han rainor,” said Uo*&" “XItAs all a&o-t the &aseA The president#s numbers are theonly ones going up and it#s because he is getting increased supportfrom liberals 0ho see he is acting decisi4ely and liberated by notha4ing to run again.” <illia! Lalston, a for!er polic" adiser to President Bill +linton, said,

“!emocrats" e4en dissenting !emocrats" are less eager to confrontthe president of their o0n party than the 2epublicans are” “Beca-se an"

!eanin*f-l confrontation &et.een +on*ress and the president has to inole a eto oerride, if e!ocrats .ho !a" &e

dissentin* are -n.illin* to Join the opposition at this point, then the president can bloc !ost

things he doesn#t 0ant from happening.



Qeystone Eood

Qeystone is gooden4ironment" energy security" 5obs"and 4alue to life. :nd" there#s plenty of other pipes" if

there#s an impact it#s ine4itableNP2" &% [2/8/15, transcript of an interie. &et.een aid Lreene, host of 6P, and l&erta

Pre!ier 0i! Prentice, “Ke"stone E Pipeline BeneDts GS nd +anada, l&erta Pre!ier Sa"s,”http://...npror*/2$15/$2/$8/#7#F28588/)e"stone%l%pipeline%&eneDts%-%s%and%canada%al&erta%pre!ier%sa"s'

PC6I+C: @n &oth sides of the &order, .e hae &eneDted fro! an inte*ratedener*" s"ste! that is the &i**est and the !ost s-ccessf-l in the .orld So.hen .e tal) a&o-t this pipeline, it?s not J-st a sin*le pipeline It is part of aninfrastr-ct-re that .e?e &-ilt oer the last 5$ "ears hat?s *ien -s thehi*hest standard of liin* in the .orld nd so .e sho-ldn?t lose si*ht of thefact that .hat .e?re &-ildin* to*ether as 6orth !ericans -nder the Nree

rade *ree!ent is an inte*rated ener*" s"ste! nd this is one pipeline here are !an" others that perfor! a si!ilar role he p-rpose of this

pipeline is not to carr" oil to ports to &e eported It act-all" carries +anadianoil to !erican reDneries that hae &een p-rpose%&-ilt to process the st-,.hich creates Jo&s in the Gnited States So it?s not J-st a&o-t the Jo&s ofconstr-ction I !ean, this is part of a per!anent ind-strial infrastr-ct-re thatcreates all )inds of Jo&s in the Gnited States % in reDnin*, in ports and so onLCC6C: B-t this proJect speciDcall" % I !ean, .e?re tal)in* a&o-t in ter!s ofper!anent Jo&s past constr-ction % !a"&e J-st a fe. do4en nd "o-!entioned there are other pipelines that are doin* sort of a si!ilar thin* @neof the! is )no.n as the l&erta +lipper, .hich .as approed .ith er" littlefanfare andPC6I+C: S-re I .as at the openin* of a pipeline in Nreeport, eas, 1$ da"sa*o % the Nlana*an So-th Sea.a" pipeline .hich &asicall" does the sa!e

thin* that the Ke"stone pipeline doesLCC6C: So .h" did this one &eco!e s-ch a s-&Ject of political !-dslin*in*RPC6I+C: <ell, I thin) it?s &eco!e a s"!&ol, I s-ppose, of the eercise ofa-thorit" &" the president ers-s the +on*ress here in the Gnited States

hat?s &e"ond !" J-risdiction B-t at the end of the da", I si!pl" !a)e thepoint that this is an i!portant part of .hat .e are doin* to*ether as 6orth!ericans @-r proince % proince of l&erta % proides 25 percent of the oili!ports to the Gnited States of !erica <e are the lar*est s-pplier of oil tothe Gnited States hat *ies -s ener*" sec-rit" as a continent , *ies -sprosperit" on &oth sides of the &order nd it?s so!ethin* that?s .orthcontin-in* to p-rs-e nd it *ies -s not onl" *eopolitical adanta*es.orld.ide, &-t it *ies -s the possi&ilit" to Dnd an eniron!ental adanta*eas 6orth !ericans that no&od" else in the .orld has







Political Capital



Res PC

Obama has PCappro4al ratings" decisi4e actions" andlame duc status

Pianin and Ear4er" 1%&' [Cric and o&, 1/29/15, <ashin*ton Cditor and+ B-rea- +hief Cric Pianin is a eteran Jo-rnalist .ho has coered thefederal *oern!ent, con*ressional &-d*et and ta iss-es, and nationalpolitics He spent oer 25 "ears at he <ashin*ton Post, >@&a!aAs =eto Pen(i*htier han L@P S.ords>, Niscal i!es,http://...theDscalti!esco!/2$15/$1/29/@&a!as%=eto%Pen%(i*htier%L@P%S.ords'

0ohn Uo*&", a pro!inent pollster and political anal"st, said the president#s rising appro4alrating V approaching <= percent right no0 V has gi4en him addedle4erage “I canAt sa" it an" &etter than a !illennial pop sin*er na!ed (e*han rainor,” said Uo*&" “XIt#s allabout the base .# The president#s numbers are the only ones going upand it#s because he is getting increased support from liberals 0ho

see he is acting decisi4ely and liberated by not ha4ing to run again ”

<illia! Lalston, a for!er polic" adiser to President Bill +linton, said, “!emocrats" e4en dissenting!emocrats" are less eager to confront the president of their o0nparty than the 2epublicans are.

Obama still has PC /// better positioned at this stage thanpre4ious presidents2ossino0" 1 [o-*, 1$/15/18, professor of histor" at (etropolitan StateGniersit", “Perhaps the erdict on @&a!a is not "et in,”http://...startri&-neco!/opinion/co!!entaries/2F9#5772ht!l'Perceptions not0ithstanding" he may be better positioned than

others 0ere at this stage in their presidencies. Gore than one/fourthof Barac) Obama#s presidency is yet to come B-t the erdicts on his re*i!e alread"t-!&le forth <hile so!e *ie hi! hi*h !ar)s, others la!ent his disappointed a!&itions, .hich trac) hisdroopin* Jo&%approal ratin*s @&a!aAs s-pposed lac) of 4est for retail politic)in* and his isolation fro!the allies he needs in <ashin*ton M in short, his dis!al introersion M D*-re lar*e in these criti-es Sodoes @&a!aAs alle*ed fail-re to *rasp “*reatness” thro-*h the force of so!e el-sie -alit" called historic

“character” ;et much of 0hat 0e hear is untrue @&a!aAs tattered approal ratin*s ared-e to the intensiDed partisanship of o-r era His forthco!in* li)el"3 political set&ac) in +on*ress .ill &e

consistent .ith historic tendencies *is presidency in some 0ays is in bettershape than those of his predecessors at similar points in theirregimes. His !aJor failin* is not a lac) of *re*ario-sness or a deDcit of character Consider ho0pre4ious t0o/term presidents 0ere doing at similar points in theirtenures. In 2$$, Leor*e < B-shAs pop-larit" .as craterin*, as discontent oer the Ira .ar crested

In 1997, Bill +linton .as nearin* i!peach!ent &" the GS Ho-se In @cto&er 197, onald ea*anAspresidenc" started to -nrael, as a do.ned plane in 6icara*-a spar)ed the Iran%contra reelations thatco-ld hae led to ea*anAs i!peach!ent <ith the eception of +linton M .hose con*ressional p-rs-ersrep-lsed !-ch of the p-&lic M these and other t.o%ter!ers sa. the opposition reali4e !aJor *ains in the

elections si "ears into their presidencies In short, these other guys 0ere in someserious trouble B-sh, +linton and ea*an, each in a dierent .a", .ere *rael" co!pro!ised &"

either scandal or polic" disaster @&a!a has co!!itted no co!para&le !isdeed .hich is not the sa!e assa"in* he has !ade no serio-s errors3 he onl" reason the ep-&lican%controlled Ho-se has not startedi!peach!ent proceedin*s is pro&a&l" that there is nothin* on .hich the L@P can to-ch hi! @&a!aAs lo.approal ratin*s are d-e to historicall" -n!atched hostilit" fro! the opposition his far into their o.npresidencies, B-sh enJo"ed Jo& approal fro! a&o-t 15 percent of e!ocrats and ea*an had it fro!



aro-nd 25 percent of e!ocrats +linton M despite his loo!in* i!peach!ent M had it fro! 25 percent ofep-&licansb B-t @&a!a has the s-pport of 1$ percent or less of ep-&licans <hether "o- thin) thisres-lts fro! @&a!aAs o.n partisanship depends on ho. "o- deDne partisanship His policies hae &eenrather !oderate His adoption of (itt o!ne"As (assach-setts health care plan as his national !odel andhis e!&race of drone stri)es in n-!ero-s co-ntries, as .ell as the escalatin* .ar a*ainst the Isla!ic Statein Ira and the Eeant, are pri!e cases in point @n the other hand, @&a!a has not !ade the rep-diationof his o.n part"As core constit-encies a pillar of his presidenc", as did his e!ocratic predecessor, +lintonecall +lintonAs repeal of id to Na!ilies <ith ependent +hildren and his rhetorical attac)s on la&or -nions

d-rin* the D*ht oer 6N +linton *ained ep-&lican s-pport .ith s-ch !oes @&a!a has refrainedfro! thro.in* -lnera&le se*!ents of his part"As &ase -nder the &-s for political *ain @&a!a does haecharacter traits that hae ha!pered his leadership His lac) of socia&ilit" see!s irreleant fe. recentpresidents hae !in*led .ith the + social set3 @&a!a has sho.n an -n.aerin* faith in thes-pposedl"3 !eritocratic elite of <ashin*ton and <all Street he has failed to conert the co-ntr"Asdis*-st .ith these po.erf-l fe. into political capital In short, @&a!a lac)s the instinct of the de!a*o*-eHis hard%earned self%restraint, as a &lac) !an in !erica, no do-&t pla"s a role in his te!pera!entalcoldness to.ard crass political eploitation If he had .anted to !a)e !ore of his historic !o!ent, he!i*ht hae needed a less%cool approach 6onetheless, as @&a!a nears the three%-arters !ar) of his

presidenc", and 0hile he may soon be saddled 0ith a EOP Senate and

*ouse both" his caution has ept him from disabling himself

politically 0ith self/in3icted 0ounds . *e may be freer to pursue his

4ision than many pre4ious presidents ha4e been during theirse4enth and eighth years.

!ems ha4en#t abandoned him/ he#s got capital left$aldman" 1 [Pa-l, 1$/29/18, <ashin*ton Post, “he Xe!ocrats r-nnin*fro! @&a!aA stor" is &ein* .a" oerpla"ed”,http://....ashin*tonpostco!/&lo*s/pl-!%line/.p/2$18/1$/29/the%de!ocrats%r-nnin*%fro!%o&a!a%stor"%is%&ein*%.a"%oerpla"ed/'One of the primary themes in the co4erage of the midterm electionsis the 0ay that !emocrats are running a0ay from President Obama

he" donAt .ant to &e seen .ith hi!b he" .onAt sa" .hether the" oted for hi!b nd this has reportedl"

&eco!e a so-rce of friction &et.een e!ocrats and the <hite Ho-se This is all being taenas e4idence of a deep failure of Obama#s presidency. @ut in order tobelie4e that" you need both a short memory and a 0illingness toignore the basic geographical dynamics of :merican politics. s a !atter

of political strate*", IA! not *oin* to defend the candidates .ho are distancin* the!seles fro! @&a!a he one .ho *ot the !ost attention .as lison E-nder*an Lri!es, .ho *ot inDnitel" !ore &ad press forref-sin* to sa" .hether she had oted for hi! in 2$$7 and 2$12 than she .o-ld hae if she had J-st said,“S-re I did, and let !e tell "o- .h" IA! a e!ocrat\” Senate candidates hae *ien -p opport-nities toto-t policies that hae s-pport a!on* oters, and r-nnin* a.a" fro! "o-r part"As leader not onl"

de!orali4es "o-r o.n &ase partic-larl" frican%!ericans3, it J-st !a)es "o- loo) li)e a .i!p @ut all

this isn#t happening this year because there#s something unusually

toic about @arac Obama. Res" his appro4al ratings are in the =s"

and if they 0ere ten points higher a candidate here or there mightfeel a little less uneasy about campaigning 0ith him . $hat this isreally about is simple geography. <hatAs distinct a&o-t this "ear is that there are so

!an" close races not J-st in “p-rple” states, &-t in states that are deepl" red Sho-ld .e &e s-rprised thata candidate li)e Lri!es doesnAt .ant to &e associated .ith @&a!aR SheAs r-nnin* in Kent-c)" state@&a!a lost in 2$12 &" 2# points (ar) Pr"or in r)ansas isnAt as)in*

Obama has not bottomed out /// no party re4olt yetSin" 1 [0-stin, 9/1/18, citin* 0-lian Ueli4er% Princeton Gniersit" politicalhistorian “Ei&eral &ase so-rs on @&a!a,”http://thehillco!/ho!ene.s/ad!inistration/2179F#%li&eral%&ase%so-rs%on%o&a!a'



Political eperts say that" although Obama#s d0indling appro4alratings are restricting his po0er" he#s not yet at ris of a 0holesaleintraparty re4olt lie the one eperienced by President Leor*e < @ush

!emocrats ar e still relati4ely happy 0ith the president#s policies,

een if the" *ro. disenchanted .ith hi! as an indiid-al, Ueli4er said Obama go4ernsthrough pragmatism and" 0hile the crisis/by/crisis approach causes

some problems" it#s harder to ha4e a sharp turn a0ay from it lie2epublicans 0ith the IraA $ar" he said

Documents

1_February Politics Update