1990 IMF

1990

IMF

EU EU

EU

2005 4 25

2007 1 1 EU 1 1989

12

GDP

2004 5 EU 8

IMF

EU EU

3

IMF EU

EU

EU

1 Treaty(2005) 4 2 Protocol(2005) 39

2007 1 1

2008 1 1

1

522

IMF EU 1990

1990 11 1 3

1989 1991

GDP 12.9 1993

2 1997

3 2

2

2 2000

2004 8.3

10

1 2004

2003 3.6 10.8

10.1 3

2000 7.9 2001 28.0 2002 32.4 2003 56.8 2004

40.5 4

1999

20.7 2003 63.9 2004 53.2

5

1

2004 42 2.2

2001 12.8 2004 23.7

2 1990 (2000)

3 NBR(2004), pp.28-29.

4 Duenwald(2005), p.8.

5 (2000) 93 (2004) 162

EU 3

181 2004

108 GDP 30.8

2005

2004 GDP 6.6 2005 4.9

11.2 GDP

2005 7.1

1995

6 70 Romtelecom

OTE EBRD

1999 2.7 2004 3.7 7 2001

1,342 2005 1,180 8

8

EBRD

IFC

BCR 2005 10 7

9

CEC Eximbank

CFR

1990

SOF APAPS

APAPS 2004 5 AVAS 10

AVAS 90 544

AVAS

6 (2000) 7

7 EBRD(2004), p.164.

8 EC(2003), p.39, EC(2005), p.26.

9 2005 10 27

10 OECD(2005)

524

11

ARIS

IMF

EU

30

Government 2005 3 EU

Acquis Communautaire EU

EU 1

2 EU

IMF 1990

12 IMF

2001 10

18 3 SDR SBA

2004 7 24 2.5 SDR SBA

2001 SBA 13

2002 GDP 0.5

GDP 0.5

11 1993 2004 10,748 1993 96 147 1997 2000

1,001 2001 03 185 2004 50 (OECD(2005), p.37)

12 (2000) 5

13 IMF Press Release No.01/43 (October 31, 2001).

EU 5

2004 SBA 14

2003 GDP

1.25 2004 GDP 3 2.1

35

2003 0.75 GDP 5.25

2004 2003 14.1 9

2004 SBA

Petrom

2007 EU

Letter of Intent IMF

waiver 2004 9 13 Letter of Intent 2004

waiver 9 12

15

IMF

IMF 2004 9 13 Letter of Intent

1

14 IMF Press Release No.01/43 (October 31, 2001).

15 Romania(2004).

526

1990 EU

1990 1993

EU

EU

Acquis Communautaire

EU

1994 1995

1997 2000

1998 5

2000

2004 2004 12 14

2005 4 25 2007 1

EU EC

2003

EC 2004

16

EC

16 EC(2003), p.35.

EU 7

2003

IMF SBA 17

IMF

EC 2003

SBA

EC 2004 EC 2003

2004 10

2005 7 1 4 2005

2005 7.5 1

18 EC 2003

18 2004

2004 8

EC 2004

EC 2003

18

70

ASPAS

AVAS 2004 7 Petrom

OMV 2 2004 6

17 EC(2003), p.38.

18 EC(2003), p.39.

528

19

20

EU

21

EU

EU

GDP 3 OECD

5.1 22 23.2

12.8 2002

2000 FDI

90

2

19 EC(2004), p.41.

20 EC(2003), p.39.

21 EC(2003), pp.41-44.

22 OECD/OECD OECD (2005 )

http://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/toukei/002/05091301/002.htm

EU 9

3

EU

2001 37.4 2002 36.2

19.9 21.2

EC 2004

EU

23

Petrom

2004

EU

2003 2004

EU 2007

EU

2004 11

37

12

4 Government 2005

Government 2005 27 1

23 EC(2004), p.44.

5210

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

4 12 13

4 9 1

25 16

16

2006 49.5 2008 39.5

16 24

24 2005 4 1 10

10 IMF 19

JCR 2004-55 2005 2

28

EU 11

2

3 4 25

3

5 6

EC 2005

Acquis Communautaire

EC 2005 EU

7

8

12

4

25 4 2 2

3

5212

16

2007

EU

4

13

EU

2005 2008 EU

4

1990

EU 13

IMF

IMF 1993

EU

1997 2000 2000

IMF

EU

2004 12 2005 4 2008 1

26 2007 1

EU

EU

IMF

EU EMU

A EU

A

26 EC(2005) 2006 4 5

EU 2008 1

2005 10 26

5214

Duenwald(2005): Christoph Duenwald, Nikolay Gueorguiev, and Andrea Schaechter, “Too Much of a Good

Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies: The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine,” IMF Working

Paper (WP/05/128), 2005.

EBRD(2004): European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 2004.

EC(2003): Commission of the European Union, 2003 Regular Report on Romania’s Progress towards Accession,

2003.

EC(2004): Commission of the European Union, 2004 Regular Report on Romania’s Progress towards Accession,

2004.

EC(2005): European Commission, Romania 2005 Comprehensive Monitoring Report, 2005.

Government(2005): Government of Romania, Government Program 2005-2008.

Hunya(2005): Gabor Hunya, “Romania: decelerating economic growth, widening deficits,” the Vienna Institute

for International Economic Studies, Monthly Report, 10/2005, pp.19-20.

NBR(2004): National Bank of Romania, Annual Report 2004.

OECD(2005): Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD Investment Policy Reviews

Romania, 2005.

Protocol(2005): Protocol concerning the Conditions and Arrangements for Admission of the Republic Bulgaria

and Romania to the European Union (http://europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/negotiations/ treaty_of_

accession_2005/pdf/treaty/protocol/aa03_r3_protocol_en5.pdf).

Romania(2004): Letter of Intent, Supplementary Memorandum on Economic and Financial Policies, and

Technical Memorandum of Understanding, September 13, 2004.

Treaty(2005): Treaty concerning the Accession of the Republic of Bulgaria and Romania to the European Union

http://europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/negotiations/treaty_of_accession_2005/pdf/treaty/aa02-r3-

Treaty.en5.pdf .

(2004):

2004 10

143 165

(2000): 90 ? 2000 7

EU 15

GD

P10

%1

GD

P(U

SD1

GD

P(U

SD a

t PPP

)

%

%%

%10

00%

LFS

% % %

10

GD

P

100

USD

GD

P%

FOB

100

USD

%C

IF10

0U

SD

%10

0U

SD /USD

/EU

R

857.

9-5

.616

4853

80

-19.

0-2

.9-3

5.5

-1.0 . . .

5.1

26.9

307.

131

0.9

-3.8

-0.4

-333

7-8

.757

75.4

-44.

992

02.5 9.1

-342

7.1

22.4

31.1

1990

2203

.9-1

2.9

1244

4810

-22.

80.

8-3

1.6

-0.5

337.

43.

0 .

170.

222

0.1

496.

853

7.9

-41.

1-1

.9

-101

2-3

.542

65.7

-26.

157

93.4

-41.

6-1

527.

7

76.4

94.8

1991

6029

.2-8

.885

945

60

-21.

9-1

3.3

11.0

-3.0

929.

08.

2 .

210.

418

4.8

1363

.916

26.9

-263

.0-4

.4

-156

4-8

.043

63.4 2.3

6259

.6 8.0

-189

6.2

308.

0

399.

4

1992

2003

5.7

1.5

1158

4740 1.3

10.2 8.3

-3.8

1164

.710

.4 .

256.

116

5.0

3792

.441

28.8

-336

.4-1

.7

-117

4-4

.548

92.2

12.1

6521

.7 4.2

-162

9.5

760.

1

884.

6

1993

4977

3.2

3.9

1323

5040 3.3

0.2

20.7

-0.5

1223

.910

.9 8.2

136.

814

0.5

8860

.110

930.

3-2

070.

2-4

.2

-428

-1.4

6151

.3

25.7

7109

.0 9.0

-957

.7

1655

.1

1967

.6

1994

7213

5.5

7.1

1564

5520 9.4

4.5

6.9

-5.2

998.

49.

58.

0

32.3

35.1

1288

8.3

1585

8.0

-296

9.7

-4.1

-177

4-5

.079

10.0

28.6

1027

7.9

44.6

-236

7.9

2033

.3

2629

.5

1995

1089

19.6 3.9

1563

5870 6.3

1.3

5.7

-1.2

657.

66.

66.

7

38.8

49.9

1837

2.8

2373

2.0

-535

9.2

-4.9

-257

1-7

.380

84.5 2.2

1143

5.3

11.3

-335

0.8

3082

.6

3862

.9

1996

2529

25.7

-6.1

1565

5620

-7.2 3.4

1.7

-3.8

881.

48.

96.

0

154.

815

2.7

4383

4.5

5289

6.6

-906

2.1

-3.6

-210

4-6

.084

31.1 4.3

1127

9.7

-1.4

-284

8.6

7167

.9

8090

.9

1997

3711

93.8

-4.8

1859

5380

-13.

8-7

.5-5

.7

-2.3

1025

.110

.4 6.3

59.1

33.2

6721

5.5

7761

6.6

-104

01.0

-2.8

-291

7-7

.083

02.0

-1.5

1183

7.8

4.9

-353

5.8

8875

.6

9989

.3

1998

5457

30.2

-1.2

1585

5440

-2.4 4.0

-4.8

-4.5

1130

.311

.8 6.8

45.8

44.5

9323

9.8

1068

86.7

-136

46.9

-2.5

-143

7-4

.084

87.0 2.2

1055

7.0

-10.

8-2

070.

0

1533

2.9

1629

5.6

1999

8007

73.1 2.1

1652

5640 7.1

-14.

85.

5

2.5

1007

.110

.5 7.1

45.7

53.4

1203

42.2

1491

67.8

-288

25.6

-3.6

-135

5-3

.710

366.

5

22.1

1305

4.5

23.7

-268

8.0

2169

2.7

1995

5.8

2000

1167

687.

05.

717

9361

80 8.3

22.7

10.2

-0.8

826.

98.

86.

6

34.5

38.1

1482

03.1

1840

12.2

-358

09.1

-3.1

-222

3-5

.511

385.

0

9.8

1555

1.6

19.1

-416

6.6

2906

0.9

2602

6.9

2001

1512

616.

85.

021

0068

20 4.3

-3.5 8.2

-2.7

760.

68.

48.

4

22.5

23.0

1792

05.5

2268

23.6

-476

18.1

-3.2

-152

5-3

.313

875.

7

21.9

1786

1.7

14.9

-398

6.0

3305

5.5

3125

5.3

2002

1890

778.

3 4.9

2620

7340 3.1

3.6

9.2 -

658.

97.

27.

0

15.3

19.5

2524

47.3

2814

50.7

-290

03.4

-1.5

-325

4-5

.717

618.

0

27.0

24

003.

1

34.4

-638

5.1

3320

0.1

3755

5.9

2003

8.3

5.3

557.

96.

2

11.9

3219

53.6

3407

34.7

-187

81.0

1893

5(m

il.E

UR

)21

.324

257.

6(m

il.E

UR

)24

.0

-532

2.6

(mil.

EU

R)

2906

7.0

()

3966

3.0

()

2004

119

90-2

004

WII

W, C

ount

ries

in T

rans

ition

200

4, R

oman

ian

Nat

iona

l Ins

tiute

of

Stat

istic

s, M

onth

ly S

tatis

tical

Bul

letin

, 12/

2004

and

its

web

site

.

5216

ROMANIAN POLICY MIX AND ACCESSION TO THE EU

MASAHIKO YOSHII

Although economic policies in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) were

conducted in line with the shock therapy of the IMF in the beginning of the 1990s, the economic

recoveries and the CEECs’ aspirations to be members of the European Union (EU) have made them to

go out from the surveillance of the IMF and to change their policy mix orientation towards the EU

guidelines.

Romania’s diplomatic relations with the EU date from 1990, and a Trade and Co-operation

Agreement was signed in 199l. The Europe Agreement was concluded in 1993, and Romania

submitted its application for EU membership in 1995. Following the Helsinki European Council’s

decision, accession negotiations started on 15 February 2000. In December 2004, closure of the

negotiations was announced, and the Accession was subsequently signed in Luxembourg on 25 April

2005, which would invite Romania to be a member of the EU on 1 January 2007. During this period,

the European Commission monitored all aspects of Romanian policies, and directed them towards the

framework of Copenhagen criteria and the Acquis Communautaire.

This paper examines how the Romanian economic policies have been shaped by the European

commission and the IMF. It will show that the IMF is still a mentor in the sphere of macroeconomic

stabilization, and that other aspects of the Romanian economic policies have been guided by various

indications from the European Commission. Also which indications the Government of Romania has

not adopted will be shown.

The Treaty ofAccession may enter into force on 1 January 2008, if Romania does not mak enough

efforts. And even if Romaniaas well as Bulgaria can be member states of the EU, anothe process to be

members of the European Monetary Union to adopt the EURO will commence. Romania will have to

continue further along a long and arduous road.