1950: 2.5 billion people

2000: 6 billion people

2050: 9.2 billion people

The top 8 commodities, such as corn, wheat, soy and rice, provide

more than 80% of human calories.

All commodities have followed the same basic pattern.

yields

prices

These patterns put more marginal land into production -- and increase the use of chemicals, fossil fuels, and water.

1950 2000

Global Fertilizer Use

Since 1945, severe or extreme soil degradation has affected an area larger than India and China.

Stark warning that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted:

Recommends radical changes in the way nature is treated at every level of decision-making.

Source: Living Beyond Our Means: Natural Assets and Human Well-Being. Statement from the Board of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. March 2005

THE UN MILENNIUM ASSESSMENT, 2005

“Resilience and abundance can no longer be confused with indestructibility and infinite supply.”

1

Limits To Growth Study, 1972 & 2004

Natural Resources

Industrial Output

Food

Population

Pollution

Source: Dennis Meadows, 2004

MODERN DAY MYTHS

The earth is a subsidiary of

our economies

The earth has infinite

resilience and productivity to

meet whatever

humans need

“Externalities” are real, but

because they are not on our

P&Ls or Balance Sheets, they don’t exist and no one is accountable.

USA WASTES MORE ENERGY THAT JAPAN USES …… WORLD’S 3RD LARGEST GDP

‘HUBBERT’S PEAK IS NEAR OR HERE’

COST OF OIL 1978 - 2008

Average Cost of Crude Oil

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Pri

ce p

er B

arre

l (U

SD)

STATE OF THE WORLD 2008: WAVES OF INNOVATION

RENEWABLE ENERGY COST TRENDSLevelized cost of energy in constant 2005$

Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. DRAFT November 2005

Cost of OilIn cents/kwh

MilkPackagingFinished

Product

Transport

Facility Energy

Use

Transport

to/from

Processors &

Copackers

Employee

Commute

Business

Travel

SugarFruit & Flavors,

Other

Waste Disposal

STONYFIELD FARM GHG EMISSIONSM

etric To

ns C

O2

RE-MOOABLE ENERGY

Wanner Dairy FarmNavron, Pennsylvania, USA

Anaerobic digester for manure from 600 cows feeds an electric generator

Environmental benefits:Avoids methane emissions from manureReplaces local coal-generated electricity Eliminates propane and oil use on the farmProvides watershed protection from reduced runoff

Economic benefits to the farm:Two new commodities for sale: electricity & carbon offsets Financial credits for reduced runoffReduced and predictable on-farm heat and power costsDigested and dried manure reduces animal bedding costs Positive PR value for the farm

Sustainable agricultural practices– Cane is green harvested, not burned

– Waste streams from production recycled for soil building or power generation

– Biological pest control program uses beneficial insects and natural predators

– Fields reconfigured to prevent soil erosion

Payoffs– Green harvesting saves 40K tonnes CO2/yr & 3.5 million liters water/hr at mill

– 90% reduction in pest damage

– Increased biodiversity (189 species of birds, reptiles, and mammals)

– Increasing groundwater quality and volume

BRAZIL SUGAR: A BIG ECOLOGICAL AND FINANCIAL SUCCESS STORY

10% increase in yields & 50%

reduction in cost premium in 5 years

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

$18.00

$20.00

$22.00

$24.00$22.87

$22.50$22.00

$14.00

$12.32

$11.88

$14.30 $14.43

$15.14

$15.56

$16.98

$17.35 $17.53$18.20

$20.00

$12.37

$11.06

$11.80 $11.83 $12.05

$12.71

$13.74

$12.07

$13.00

$14.20

$10.57 $10.97

$14.00

Comparing Organic vs Conventional Pay Price

Organic Milk Conventional Milk Org. Milk Budget. 07 Conv. Milk Budget 07