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Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Networking in 5-50 Years – applications and
requirements
Henning SchulzrinneColumbia University
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Overview Infrastructure, once established, tends to
change very slowly Hypothesis:
all major communications modes have been explored
replacement dedicated IP largely complete Networking lacks obvious drivers of other
technologies: energy costs, pollution fuel cells higher speed jet engine
New applications not necessarily bandwidth-driven, but cost-driven
Reliability is the real QoS
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Networking is getting into middle years
idea current
IP 1969, 1980?
1981
TCP 1974 1981
telnet 1969 1983
ftp 1980 1985
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Standardization Really two facets of standardization:
1. public, interoperable description of protocol, but possibly many (Tanenbaum)
2. reduction to 1-3 common technologies LAN: Arcnet, tokenring, ATM, FDDI, DQDB, …
Ethernet WAN: IP, X.25, OSI IP
Have reached phase 2 in most cases, with RPC (SOAP) and presentation layer (XML) most recent 'conversions'
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Technologies at ~30 years
Other technologies at similar maturity level: air planes: 1903 – 1938 (Stratoliner) cars: 1876 – 1908 (Model T) analog telephones: 1876 – 1915
(transcontinental telephone) railroad: 1800s -- ?
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Observations on progress 1960s: military professional consumer
now, often reversed Oscillate: convergence divergence
continued convergence clearly at physical layer niches larger support separate networks
Communications technologies rarely disappear (as long as operational cost is low): exceptions:
telex, telegram, semaphores fax, email X.25 + OSI, X.400 IP, SMTP
analog cell phones
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
History of networking
History of networking = non-network applications migrate postal & intracompany mail, fax
email, IM broadcast: TV, radio interactive voice/video communication
VoIP information access web, P2P disk access iSCSI, Fiberchannel-over-
IP
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Network evolution Only three modes, now thoroughly explored:
packet/cell-based message-based (application data units) session-based (circuits)
Replace specialized networks left to do: embedded systems
need cost(CPU + network) < $10 cars industrial (manufacturing) control commercial buildings (lighting, HVAC, security; now
LONworks) remote controls, light switches keys replaced by biometrics
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
New applications
New bandwidth-intensive applications Reality-based networking (security) cameras
Distributed games often require only low-bandwidth control information current game traffic ~ VoIP
Computation vs. storage vs. communications communications cost has decreased less
rapidly than storage costs
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Commercial access cost (T1)
1996 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003
T1
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$/month
Year
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Transit cost (OC-3, NY – London)
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
9-Feb-99 28-Aug-99 15-Mar-00 1-Oct-00 19-Apr-01 5-Nov-01 24-May-02 10-Dec-02
Date
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Disk storage cost (IDE)Cost
$1.00
$10.00
$100.00
$1,000.00
$10,000.00
$100,000.00
May-79 Feb-82 Nov-84 Aug-87 May-90 Jan-93 Oct-95 Jul-98 Apr-01 Jan-04
Date
$/GB
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Transition of networking
Maturity cost dominates can get any number of bits anywhere,
but at considerable cost and complexity casually usable bit density still very low
Specialized commodity OPEX (= people) dominates installed and run by 'amateurs' need low complexity, high reliability
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Security challenges
DOS, security attacks permissions-based communications only allow modest rates without asking effectively, back to circuit-switched
Higher-level security services more application-layer access via gateways, proxies, …
User identity problem is not availability, but rather over-
abundance
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Scaling
Scaling is only backbone problem Depends on network evolution:
continuing addition of AS to flat space deep trouble
additional hierarchy
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
QoS
QoS is meaningless to users care about service availability
reliability as more and more value depends
on network services, can't afford random downtimes
Apr 19, 2023 Future of Networking
Wildcards
Quantum computing Teleportation
