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Repowering the Power Industry: Market Dynamics & Emerging Technologies
Leslie PonderEmerging Technology Leader,
Distributed Energy
17 September 2019
2
B L A C K & V EA T CH ’ S POR T F L I O : POWER | WATER | T E L E COM | O I L & GA S |GOV ERNMENT
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Conventional Generation Renewable Energy
Distributed EnergyTransmissionCombined Cycle Power Plant, Thailand Solar Power Plant, Arizona
Overhead Transmission, Maryland
Black & Veatch: Developing and Executing Global Power Solutions
Multiple Buildouts, U.S.
• Full Services to EPC Offering
• Backed by Strategically Located Centers of Excellence
• Solutions for Developed and Expanding Markets
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Our Conversation Today
• State of the Power Industry
• The Energy Transformation Timeline is Accelerating
• Strategic Directions Report Key Findings
• Q&A
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The State of the Power Industry
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K E Y F A C T SThe Global Distribution Infrastructure Market by 2023 is expected to grow at an
C H A L L E N G E SUtility Asset Management Market by 2022 Net worth will be
$4.09B with 8.25% CAGR
Electric Power Distribution Automation Systems Market by 2025 Worth
$23.7B with a 6% CAGR
US utilities projected to invest
$110B in smart grid infrastructure over the next decade.
8% CAGR – Major Focus
Sluggish to declining sales growth and use per customer
Booming interest across all customer classes for energy‐reducing / energy management products and services
Codes and standards continue to threaten the viability of conventional/thermal generation
Distributed energy resources and grid‐edge energy management tools are quickly becoming cost‐effective
Our customers are changing…and customers are being disintermediated from the regulated utility by 3rd‐parties who offer more than a commoditized service
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Key Insights into Utility Focus AreasTop Concerns for the Electric Industry Ranked by Survey Respondents
Source: Black & Veatch 2019 Strategic Directions: Electric Report
43.6%28.8%27.8%27.1%25.8%24.2%
21.3%20.5%
17.4%15.2%
12.8%7.2%
3.3%3.1%
Aging infrastructure
Aging work force
Cyber security
Renewables
Environmental regulation
Economic regulation (i.e., rates)
Market structure
Energy storage
Distributed Energy Resources
Reliability
Long term investment
Natural gas prices
Physical security
Natural gas fuel supply reliability
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The Energy Transformation Timeline is Accelerating
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It Starts with an Integrated Infrastructure Mindset
• Generation, Transmission & Distribution Technologies
• Investments in Digitalization, Automation and Analytics
• A Balanced Energy Portfolio
Developing a Strategic Growth Strategy
A Roadmap to Guide you on this JourneyRMEL
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Grid Modernization Matters to Utilities• Having a cross‐departmental technology plan that
aligns with your strategic plan
• Grid modernization continues to be a leading issue at the state and federal level – utilities are being forced to develop strategy and plans
• Transformation and grid modernization pushes utilities past their traditional capabilities and comfort zone
• DER is causing a spiraling of new complex technology initiatives that are difficult to assess
• Utilities have discrete capabilities in technical, financial and regulatory departments, but need help pulling it all together to develop strategy and engage regulators
Technology & Innovation
Environmental Priorities
Customers & Choices
Broken Business Model
Wholesale Markets
Pressure to Transform
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Download our Strategic Directions Electric Industry Report: www.bv.com/reports
Key Findings to Help Guide Strategic Choices
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New Sources of Revenue are Being Considered or Already Deployed
59.8%
52.2%
43.8%
41.1%
35.6%
31.6%
Energy efficiency services
Electric vehicle charging network
Energy management services
Financing of energy efficiency orrenewables
Behind‐the‐meter resource provision(DERs)
Distribution level DERs
11RMEL
Energy as a Service Contracts are Already Being Offered by a Range of Providers
52.0%
41.3%
31.0% 30.5%
Traditional utilities Independent powerproducers
Energy tradingcompanies
Energy developers
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Distribution Markets for Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Owners are Being Introduced
39.8%
12.4%
47.7%
33.0%
16.1%
51.0%
35.6%
16.1%
48.3%43.0%
14.3%
42.6%
Yes No Don't know
Northeast Midwest South West
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Distributed Energy and Capacity Resources are Becoming Part of the Market
61.1%
59.0%
53.4%
43.6%
38.9%
38.0%
20.5%
Community solar + battery
Residential customer premise solar (i.e. rooftop solar)
Commercial customer premise solar
Virtual capacity resources (i.e. device‐enabled DR aggregationprograms, critical peak pricing, voluntary DR, etc.)
Commercial customer premise generator
Customer premise microgrids
Residential customer premise generator (load offset)
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In an Increasingly Competitive Solar and Wind Market, Utilities Can Employ Strategies to Stay Ahead of Competitors
61.6%
44.0% 41.6% 40.8%36.0%
24.8%
Innovation Strategic play atportfolio level
Value engineering Procurementefficiencies
Cost of financing Accepting lower rateof return
15RMEL
Utilities Need to Work with Independent Developers and Local Regulators to Promote and Install Utility‐Scale DER
38.2%
34.8%
32.6%
28.1%
16.9%
13.5%
23.6%
We are currently working with local regulatory bodies to changerules to promote renewable assets at utility scale
We are currently working with local regulatory bodies to changerules to promote DER renewable assets
We have created a specific team to manage these opportunities
We have engaged consultants to support the development of theseassets
We have increased our budget to incorporate these resources
We have reallocated existing budget funds to incorporate theseresources
We are NOT active in supporting these assets
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These are the Key Drivers for New Transmission Investment over the Next 5 Years
37.4%
28.4%
12.6% 11.1% 9.5%
1.1%
Renewables growth Resiliency andreliability
Congestion Fossil retirements Inter‐regionalcoordination
Other
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Consumer Demands are Influencing Generation Capacity Additions
Definitely yes28.8%
Probably yes35.6%
Might or might not19.9%
Probably not8.2%
Definitely not7.5%
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EV Fleet Conversions also Require Focus
34.3%
22.9%
22.9%
21.4%
18.9%
17.4%
23.9%
Planning for utility infrastructure upgrades
Doing trial projects with new fleet operators
Watching the EV market and waiting beforedeploying our limited resources
Developing (or enhancing) time‐of‐use ratestructure to encourage load shifting
Implementing utility infrastructure upgrades
Approaching fleet operators about possible EVconversions
We are not preparing
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As IOT becomes the norm for customer engagement and interaction, will your company have to make new investments to ensure the security of their data or your internal systems?
Yes92.1%
No7.9%
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How important are cybersecurity processes, procedure and overall threat management to your organization?
Extremely important63.7%
Very important26.6%
Moderately important
7.5%
Slightly important
1.1%
Not at all important…
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Asset Management Technologies and Processes Must also be Considered
26%
18%
26%
26%
18%
32%
26%
28%
24%
20%
30%
16%
1%
6%
2%
Asset investment andprioritizationtechnology
ISO 55001 standards
Asset performancemanagementtechnology
Considered andimplemented
Considered, planto implement
Underconsideration
Not yetconsidered
Considered, willnot implement
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Sensors
Opportunities Exist in a Re‐Powered Power Industry
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Thank YouRemember to Download a Copy of our Strategic Directions Reports at bv.com/reports
17 September 2019
Leslie Ponder(P) +1 913‐458‐8073(E) [email protected]