1560391-US-Air-Force-dm-crisis-sm-unit3[1]

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UNIT 3: CRISIS DECISION MAKING

3. CRISIS DECISION MAKING

Visual 3.1

Unit Objectives

3 List the steps in a decision-making model.

3 Apply the steps to making decisions duringan emergency.

Decision Making in a Crisis: Student Manual Page 3-1


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DECISION MAKING

Decisions can be as simple as delegating a routine task or as complex as responding to a major crisis.

Decision making in a crisis is made more difficult because of stress.

Visual 3.2

Impediments

3 Time pressure

3 Political pressures

3 High or low blood sugar

3 Caffeine

3 Fatigue

3 Lack of information

3 Conflicting information

3 Uncertainty

Impediments to making good decisions under stress include:

3 Perceived or real time pressure.

3 Possible political pressures.

3 High- or low-blood sugar levels as a result of erratic eating patterns.

3Caffeine.

3 Sleep deprivation and resulting fatigue.

3 Lack of information.

3 Conflicting information.

3 Uncertainty.

Page 3-2 Decision Making in a Crisis: Student Manual


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DECISION MAKING

Visual 3.3

Decision Makers under Stress

3 Experience conflict with others

3 Perceive selectively

3 Have poor judgment

Under stress, decision makers are more likely to:

3 Experience conflict with other key players.

3 Perceive selectively because of sensory overload, and thus perhaps miss important information.

3 Experience perception distortion and poor judgment.



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DECISION MAKING

Visual 3.4


3 Less tolerant of ambiguity

3 Decreased ability to handle tasks and think

3 Tendency toward aggression and escape

3 Be less tolerant of ambiguity and thus perhaps make premature decisions.

3 Experience a decreased ability to handle difficult tasks and work productively.

3 Experience a greater tendency toward aggression and escape behaviors.



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DECISION MAKING

Visual 3.5


3 Consider only immediate situation.

3 Choose a risky alternative.

3 Have tunnel vision.

3 Succumb to group think.

3 Consider only immediate survival goals, sacrificing long-range considerations.

3 Choose a risky alternative.

3 Get tunnel vision.

3 Succumb to group think.

An important key to effective decision making in a crisis is being systematic. A good way to be

systematic is to use a problem-solving model.

The next section will present a problem-solving model that has proven effective in emergency situations.



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PROBLEM-SOLVING MODEL

There are different decision-making/problem-solving models. Each step in this model may be completed

quickly, but every step must be considered. It is not necessary to document each step, but it is important

to think through every step.

Step 1: Size up the situation.

Visual 3.6

Problem-Solving Model

Step 1: Size up the situation.

3 What is happening?

3 Who is involved?

3 What are the stakes?



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Step 2: Identify contingencies.

Visual 3.7


Step 2: Identify contingencies.

Murphys Laws:

3 Nothing is as easy as it looks.

3 Everything takes longer than you think itwill.

3 If anything can go wrong, it will.



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Step 3: Determine objectives.

Visual 3.8


Step 3: Determine objectives.

Objectives are:

3 Measurable targets.

3 Used to monitor progress and establishpriorities.

3 Based on the sizeup and contingencies.



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Step 4: Identify needed resources.

Visual 3.9


Step 4: Identify needed resources.

3 What resources are needed?

3 Where will I get them?

3 How long will it take?

3 What can others offer?

3 Are there any special requirements?



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Step 5: Build a plan.

Visual 3.10


Step 5: Build a plan.

Your plan should state:

3 Who . . .

3 Will do what . . . (and with whom)

3 By when.

3 Where.

3 How.



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Step 6: Take action and evaluate results.

Visual 3.11


Step 6: Take action and evaluate results.

1. Size upsituation

4. Identifyresources

5. Builda plan

6. Act and

evaluate

3. Determine

objectives

2. Identifycontingencies



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offering or requiring time-sensitive medical care. The complaints and requests for road work are morethan can be accommodated. In addition, several major campaign contributors have demanded that roads

be opened to their neighborhoods.

The problem is:

Contingency/ies:

Objective/s:

Resources needed:

Plan:

Action/s:

Scenario #3: Response Personnel

After an ice storm hit the town of Barlow, the power went out in many parts of the community, including

the senior citizen complex. With the temperatures dropping and evening approaching, the Emergency

Management Director has been faced with the dilemma of evacuating the population of elderly through

the ice and cold or finding a temporary means of providing a warm and safe environment in their own

building until power can be restored and normalcy returned to the complex.

The problem is:

Contingency/ies:

Objective/s:



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Resources needed:

Plan:

Action/s:

Scenario #4: Incident Commander

You were the Incident Commander at a recently concluded hostage situation at a school. There were three

deaths and 21 injuries during the standoff. The suspects are now in custody. You appointed anInformation Officer to handle all media inquiries. You hear over the scanner that the media is reporting

all the names and the details of the situation.

The problem is:

Contingency/ies:

Objective/s:

Resources needed:

Plan:

Action/s:



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Scenario #5: ICS Staff

Flooding has inundated the downtown area. A three-block area must be evacuated. As the Operations

Section Chief, you assign units to help with the evacuation. As officers are going door to door with the

evacuation order, they encounter an elderly woman with several pets who will not leave unless she cantake the pets with her.

The problem is:

Contingency/ies:

Objective/s:

Resources needed:

Plan:

Action/s:


Documents

1560391-US-Air-Force-dm-crisis-sm-unit3[1]