154$ÜJJimg3.gelonghui.com/pdf201602/pdf20160222105444566.pdfassets from September 2015, compared with our previous assumptions that contribution from the new assets would be limited

本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给方正富邦基金方正富邦基金管理有限公司([email protected]) 使用。1

Renewable Energy| Company Bringing China to the World

SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com

2016年 2月 18日

买入

维持

年报前瞻

中广核新能源 (1811:HK) Market Data: 17 Feb

Closing Price (HK$) 1.09

Price Target (HK$) 1.66

HSCEI 7928

HSCCI 3390

52-week High/Low (HK$) 3.6/0.98

Market Cap (USD Mn) 603

Market Cap (HK$ Mn) 4677

Shares Outstanding (Mn) 4,291

Exchange Rate (HK$-US$) 7.75

Price Performance Chart:

Source: Bloomberg

Analyst Vincent Yu, CFA A0230513070005 BAM599 [email protected] (+86) 21 2329 7301

Contact Mae Huang (8621)23297818×7317 [email protected]

Related Reports " CGN MEIYA POWER HOLDINGS (1811:HK)—Running out of puff " 11 December 2015

Financial summary and valuation 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

Revenue (US$m) 1,055 1,380 1,421 1,516 1,804

YoY (%) 11.2 30.8 3.0 6.7 19.0

Net income (US$m) 55.8 202.2 108.4 114.4 177.6

YoY (%) 176.9 262.3 (46.4) 5.6 55.3

EPS (US$) 0.018 0.060 0.025 0.027 0.033

Diluted EPS (US$) 0.018 0.060 0.025 0.027 0.033

ROE (%) 7.2 28.5 13.5 10.8 13.0

Debt/asset (%) 68.3 67.2 80.4 82.5 83.2

Dividend Yield (%) 7.6 - 2.4 2.9 3.6

PE (x) 7.8 2.4 5.5 5.2 4.2

PB (x) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5

EV/Ebitda (x) 11.3 6.9 11.5 12.8 10.9 Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible

debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised.

我们预计中广核新能源 15 年将实现 1.08 亿美元的盈利，与彭博预期一致。第一批资产的

利润从 2015 年 9 月开始计入，由于 2015 年对风能和太阳能业务的敞口较小，突发限电

恶化对中广核 15 年的收入没有太大影响。但限电将持续影响 2016 年，再加上美元升值

的压力，我们将公司 16 年预期利润从 1.31 亿美元调低至 1.14 亿美元，基于 2016 年底

第二批注入在年底完成的假设。

第二轮资产注入方式悬而未决。我们调研了解到中广核集团拥有大概 7.3GW 的在运营风

能，约 2.1GW 的在建风能，约 3.0GW 的获批准项目，600MW 左右的太阳能资产和多

达 1.4GW 的水电。充足的注入储备资产使中广核新能源未来 3-4 年不会受电价下调带来

的直接影响，但是公司目前的估值阻碍了它继续注入资产的战略。公司仍有许多选择，如

管理层对用韩国的资产交换 16 年的注入资产有所考虑，对通过继续贷款的方式或其他可

能途径也持开放态度。我们的模型中则假设公司在一年内待市场恢复其 1x PB 后进行增发

筹集 30%的资金来收购第二批资产。管理层计划今年注入更高质量及更多数量的资产。

我们维持 16 年注入 1.2GW 风能、250MW 氢能和 200MW 太阳能的预期不变。

外汇压力。16 年预计利润下调部分源于我们调整了汇率假设。申万研究宏观分析师预计

人民币对美元 16 年底将贬值到 6.8。公司现有约 50%的债务以美元计价，约 1/3 的债务

以韩元计价，暂时无对冲仓位。随着多轮降息继续，我们预计公司将增加更多人民币贷款

并减少美元债务来减缓外汇压力。管理层考虑赎回优先于对冲策略。

维持买入评级。我们将 15 年的预计每股收益由 0.024 美元调整为 0.025 美元（同比下降

58%），16 年 0.027 美元（同比上升 6%）的预测维持不变，17 年的则由 0.032 美元调

整为 0.033 美元（同比上升 25%）。我们的预测和评级包含了对第二轮注资资产的成功性，

但我们同时将目标价格从 2.12 港币调低至 1.66 港币，以反映该交易的暂时不确定性，和

可再生能源板块至少半年的低迷市场情绪以及公司短期内强劲催化剂的缺失。我们的目标

价格对应 15 年 15 倍的市盈率和 1.12 倍的市净率，16 年则分别是 16 倍和 0.8 倍。基于

52%的上涨幅度，我们维持买入评级。

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Renewable Energy| Company Bringing China to the World

SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com

Investment Highlights：

We raise our 15E net profit forecast for CGN New Energy from US$104.5m to US$108m (-46.4% YoY), to reflect earlier-than-expected contribution from renewable energy assets acquired from its parent CGN Group. Further injections of assets will boost the company’s outlook but overhangs from US dollar appreciation, curtailment issues and expectation of year-end injection may impact profitability in 2016.

Complicating factors. The company disclosed that it consolidated injected wind and solar assets from September 2015, compared with our previous assumptions that contribution from the new assets would be limited to 4Q15. Although the late-in-the-year inclusion of the assets limited CGN’s exposure to wind and solar curtailment in 15E, we expect curtailment problems to persist in 16E.

Pending ways for second-batch. According to our most recent checks, CGN Group operates c.7.3GW of wind power, with c.2.1GW under construction, and c.3.0GW in approved pipeline projects. Solar assets amounts to c.600MW and hydropower up to 1.4GW. The injection of existing assets will help insulate CGN New Energy from the risk of wind and solar tariff cuts for the next three to four years. However, the company’s current low valuation may impede its ability to finance further acquisitions, a key component of its growth strategy. Swap Korea assets for 16E injection is under consideration of the management. Company also open to further loans and other possible methods. We view the company to raise 30% of capital demand from the market when valuation likely to recover to over 1x book value within a year to avoid dilution. We maintain our assumption of 1.2GW of wind assets, 250MW hydro and 200MW solar assets to be injected in 2016.

Forex pressure. SWSs’ macro analysts forecast the renminbi may depreciate Rmb6.8:US$1 in 2016. CGN New Energy has c.50% of its debt denominated in US dollars, c.33% in Korean won, with no currency hedging in place. We expect the company to raise the proportion of borrowing denominated in renminbi and to reduce its US dollar debt, with management indicating that loan redemption is a higher priority than hedging.

Maintain BUY. To factor in the risk of curtailment as well as the strengthening US dollar we lower our 16E profit forecast from US$131m to US$114m, while our expectation of further asset injections at end-2016 leads us to raise our 17E forecast from Rmb168.1m to Rmb1.78m. We revise up our 15E EPS forecast from US$0.024 to US$0.025 in 15E (-58% YoY), maintain our forecast of US$0.027 in 16E (+6% YoY) and revise up our forecast from US$0.032 to US$0.033 in 17E (+25% YoY). However, with market sentiment weak and the lack of strong additional catalysts, we lower our target price from HK$2.12 to HK$1.66, representing 8.5x 15E PE, 1.12x 15E PB, or 8x 16E PE, 0.8x 16E PB. With 52% upside, we maintain our BUY rating.


October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research

Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 1

January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research

18 February, 2016 Renewable Energy | Company Research

Figure 1

Figure 1

Asset available for injection at CGN Group

Approx.

Wind

Projects in operation (GW) 7.3

Projects in construction (GW) 2.1

Projects approved but not started construction yet (GW) 3.0

Solar Projects in operation (MW) 600

Hydro Projects in operation (GW) 1.4

Source: Company, SWS Research

Figure 2

FDebt approx. structure by currency

Source: Company, SWS Research

Figure 3 Figure 4

PE band for CGN New Energy (1811 HK) PB band for CGN New Energy (1811 HK)

Source: SWS Research Source: SWS Research

USD-denominated

50%KRW-

denominated33%

RMB-denominated

17%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Historical PE Average PE

Average=7.9x

Average+1st.dev=14x

Average-1st.dev= 1.6x

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Historical PB Average PBAverage+std Average-std

Average+1st.dev=2.09x

Average-1st.dev=1.19x

Average=1.64x






Appendix Consolidated Income Statement

Consolidated Cash Flow Statement US$m 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

Profit before taxation 117 257 166 170 250

Plus：Depr. and amortisation 71 95 106 149 244

Finance cost 52 63 105 184 277

Losses from investments -48 -70 -58 -53 -53

Change in working capital 24 -5 -18 -27 -52

Others -27 -38 -51 -50 -67

CF from operating activities 189 302 250 372 599

CAPEX -305 -100 -958 -939 -894

Other CF from investing activities 20 -205 -73 -136 -178

CF from investing activities -285 -305 -1,031 -1,075 -1,072

Equity financing 0 262 0 163 150

Net change in liabilities 316 23 872 572 658

Dividend and interest paid -117 -86 -120 -201 -303

Other CF from financing activities -3 -12 0 0 0

CF from financing activities 197 187 753 534 505

Net cash flow 101 184 -28 -169 32

Source：SWS Research

US$m 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

Revenue 1,055 1,380 1,421 1,516 1,804

Cost of Sales 743 997 969 925 915

Gross Profit 312 383 451 592 889

Other Income 13 13 13 13 13

Respair and maintenance expense 23 24 24 26 31

Staff costs 46 60 62 66 79

EBITDA 188 245 309 440 708

EBIT 117 150 203 291 465

Finance Costs 52 63 105 184 277

Profit before tax 117 257 166 170 250

Income tax expense 47 40 51 50 67

Minority interests 14 16 6 5 6

Profit for the year 56 202 108 114 178

Source: SWS Research






Consolidated Balance Sheet US$m 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

Current Assets 501 787 768 618 700

Bank balances and cash 209 285 256 88 120

Trade and other receivables 118 167 171 182 217

Inventories 29 31 36 43 59

Other current assets 146 305 305 305 305

Long-term investment 724 168 172 175 178

PP&E 1,681 1,483 3,520 5,787 7,854

Intangible and other assets 51 48 270 304 345

Total Assets 2,958 2,487 4,730 6,883 9,077

Current Liabilities 254 445 506 619 765

Borrowings 34 203 267 381 513

Trade and other payables 173 219 216 214 228

Other current liabilities 47 24 24 24 24

Long-term liabilities 1,766 1,225 3,299 5,060 6,787

Total Liabilities 2,020 1,671 3,805 5,679 7,552

Minority Interests 159 107 122 141 160

Shareholder Equity 779 709 803 1,064 1,365

Share Capital 0 0 0 163 314

Reserves 779 709 803 900 1,051

Equity attributable 779 709 803 1,064 1,365

Total Liabilities and equity 2,958 2,487 4,730 6,883 9,077


Key Financial Ratios

2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E

Ratios per share (US$)

Earnings per share 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.03

Diluted earnings per share 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.03

Operating CF per share 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.11

Dividend per share 0.01 special 0.00 0.00 0.01

Net assets per share 0.25 0.21 0.19 0.25 0.26

Key Operating Ratios (%)

ROIC 2.8 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.9

ROE 7.2 28.5 13.5 10.8 13.0

Gross profit margin 29.5 27.8 31.8 39.0 49.3

Ebitda margin 17.9 17.7 21.8 29.0 39.3

Ebit margin 11.1 10.9 14.3 19.2 25.8

Growth rate of Revenue(YoY) 11.2 30.8 3.0 6.7 19.0

Growth rate of Profit(YoY) 176.9 262.3 (46.4) 5.6 55.3

Debt-to-asset ratio 68.3 67.2 80.4 82.5 83.2

Turnover rate of net assets 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2

Turnover rate of total assets 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2

Effective tax rate (%) 40.5 15.4 30.9 29.8 26.7

Dividend yield (%) 7.6 - 2.4 2.9 3.6

Valuation Ratios (x)

P/E 7.8 2.4 5.5 5.2 4.2

P/B 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5

EV/Sale 2.0 1.2 2.5 3.7 4.3

EV/Ebitda 11.3 6.9 11.5 12.8 10.9







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Documents

154$ÜJJimg3.gelonghui.com/pdf201602/pdf20160222105444566.pdfassets from September 2015, compared with our previous assumptions that contribution from the new assets would be limited