150703 Insights Impact of Reit Reforms in Singapore

7/21/2019 150703 Insights Impact of Reit Reforms in Singapore

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ed-TH / sa- JC

All systems go!

Modest changes to REIT regime

Higher development limits could spark more growth

M&A and internalisation a potential catalyst

BUY FCT, FCOT, MINT and MAGIC

Widely anticipated update from MAS. The Monetary

Authority of Singapore (MAS) has delivered a firm message in

their latest update to the REIT consultation paper thatcorporate governance and transparency remains high priorities

and in the meantime, ensures that interests betweenunitholders and REIT managers/sponsors are aligned. Ourthoughts on key topics of interest to market are:

No changes in fee structures. Highly anticipated feestructure tweaks did materialise as MAS has elected to “leave

it to market to decide”. The 1% and 0.5% fees payable to theREIT managers are also maintained, as the alternative proposalto peg on a “cost recovery” basis might be too hard to justify.

We would however prefer to have a reduced fee payable (asper some S-REITs) relating to related party transactions.

Gearing limits reduced to 45%. MAS has done away theneed for a credit rating and settle for a standardised lowergearing limit of 45%, which might be a little low. S-REITs have

on average maintained gearing at c.34%, but we have seen S-REITs acquiring assets overseas and as such, taken higher debtlevels as a form of tax shelter and currency hedges. The lower

limit could reduce financial flexibility and mean that S-REITs willbe more prudent and selective in overseas ventures. We

however believe that S-REITs will maintain their credit rating toretain pricing transparency and access to the debt capitalmarkets.

Higher development limits of 25% to spark moregrowth. Development limits are raised to 25% (vs 10%

currently) but this allowance is subject to specific approvals

from unitholders. We see this as a net positive for S-REITs,given limited acquisition growth prospects. This will enable S-REITs, especially ones with smaller portfolios to embark ondevelopment projects to optimise their portfolio returns.

M&A; internalisation of REITs. A revised stance that MASmight allow REIT managers to manage two REITs and the

internalisation of managers might aid the consolidation of theSingapore market, similar to the more mature US and

Australian markets.

Neutral impact on REITs.

We see limited impact on S-REITsfrom the conclusions of this consultation paper. We like S-

REITs with visible growth and ability to surprise through higher

earnings growth potential. Top picks are FCT, FCOT, MINT andMAGIC.

STI : 3,327.84

Analyst

Derek TAN +65 6682 3716 [email protected]

Mervin SONG CFA +65 6682 3715 [email protected]

Rachael TAN +65 6682 3713 [email protected]

STOCKS

Source: DBS Bank

DBS Group Research . Equity

3 Jul 2015

Singapore Industry Focus

Singapore REITs

Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Price Mkt Cap

Target

Price

Performance

(%)

S US m S

3 mth 12 mth

Rating

Frasers CentrepointTrust

2.08 1,409 2.20 3.0 9.5 BUY

Frasers CommercialTrust

1.54 778 1.79 2.7 12.8 BUY

Mapletree IndustrialTrust

1.56 2,023 1.68 (1.0) 9.1 BUY

Mapletree GreaterChina CommercialTrust

1.02 2,060 1.12 (3.3) 17.2 BUY



Industry Focus

Singapore REITs

Page 2

Key Highlights in MAS

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has responded to

feedback received on the proposed regulatory changes regime

governing REIT and REIT Managers.

To recap, the proposed changes were mainly aimed at (i)

improving corporate governance for the Singapore REIT sector,

(ii) addressing the perceived agency issue between interests of

unitholders and REIT managers.

While we note that proposals for improving corporate

governance were widely accepted and will be implemented

going forward, we saw limited changes to hot topics like fee

structures, gearing limits, etc.

Summary of key changes to REITs and our thoughts on these

“hot topics”:

1. Fee structure (no changes)

Proposed: New performance fee payable to REIT

manager to be based on a methodology/metrics to foster

better alignment of interest, e.g. pegged to NAV growth

or DPU growth

Response from MAS: Will not prescribe a list of

permissible fee computation methodology as long as it

meets the principle

DBS's thoughts

: The proposals were seen prescriptive in the

first place, in our view. The REIT market has progressed, in

recent listings, to tag performance to growth in DPU and while

different structures have their pros and cons, we believe a

market-based approach should be sufficient to compel REIT

managers to align their fee structure in the best interest of

unitholders.

2. Acquisition fees/Divestment fees (no changes)

Proposed to be pegged on a cost recovery basis

Response from MAS: Will not change current calculation(typically fee of 1% of acquisition value; 0.5% of

divestment value), given that cost recovery is hard to

justify

DBS's thoughts: No issues, though we would prefer REIT

managers to pay a slightly lower acquisition fee of 0.75% for

sponsor-related acquisitions (as per some REITs which have this

provision)

3. Gearing limits (lowered to 45%)

Proposed a single-tier 45% gearing limit to all REITs,regardless of credit rating

Response from MAS: To change limit to 45% (vs 35%

for unrated REITs and 60% for REITs with credit rating

DBS's thoughts:

The lower gearing limit of 45% would limit

REITs from over-gearing themselves and result in better

financial prudence. However, given that REITs have been

acquiring overseas assets to diversify and grow their portfolios,

higher debt levels are taken usually as a form of tax shelter and

currency hedges. As such, going forward, higher-geared REITs

like (K-REIT- 41% gearing, OUEHT - 42% gearing, MAGIC –

41% gearing) may need to relook at their capital structures as

the market may be more comfortable that REIT managers stay

below 40%. In addition, the reduced financial flexibility may

limit the growth of the overall S-REIT market by creating an

additional hurdle to the establishment of REITs whose assets

are mainly located overseas.

4. Increased development limits (from 10% of

property value to 45% of property value)

Proposed to increase to 25% from 10% of property

value currently. The additional 15% allowance is only for

assets held by the REIT for at least three years and to

hold on to the property for a further three years. Response from MAS: To implement but the use of the

additional 15% allowance has to undergo specific

unitholder approval

DBS's thoughts:

While the additional development limits will

change the risk profile for REITs, we think the additional

headroom will aid the REITs in growing income, given

limited opportunities to grow through acquisitions in the

current climate. We may see more REITs looking at

optimising value/returns of their portfolios by

rejuvenating them via active redevelopment. Additionally,

REITs with larger portfolios may take on more greenfieldprojects on top of ongoing redevelopment activities.

While most REITs will benefit from this rule, we see the

smaller industrial REITs benefitting the most, given the

bite-size quantum for individual portfolios.

5. Clarification that enables potential consolidation

Following investor feedback, MAS has also clarified that

1.

It is now prepared to consider applications from

REIT managers to manage more than one REIT

2.

REITs can be both internally and externally

managed





Industry Focus

Singapore REITs

Page 4

Summary of REIT gearing levels and potential upside from changes in development limits

Source: REIT Managers, DBS Bank

REIT

Market

Cap (S b) Gearing Rat ing

Deposited

Properties @

31Mar15

(S m)

Estimated value

of dev elopment

at 10% limit

(S m)

Estimated value

of dev elopment

at 25% limit

(S m) Sponsor

Off ice

CapitaCommercial Trust 4.6 29.9 A3 4,886 489 1,222 CapitaLand

Frasers Commercial Trust 1.1 37.2 BB 1,787 179 447 FCL

Keppel REIT 3.6 42.4 Baa2 3,589 359 897 Keppel Corp

Retail

CapitaRetail China Trust 1.4 28.6 n/a 2,251 225 563 CapitaLand

CapitaMall Trust 7.3 33.8 A2 7,516 752 1,879 CapitaLand

Croesus Retail Trust 0.5 50.4 n/a 941 94 235 Croesus Group

Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1.9 28.6 Baa1 2,400 240 600 FCLSPH REIT 2.7 26.0 n/a 3,164 316 791 SPH

Commercial

Mapletree Commercial Trust 3.1 36.4 Baa1 4,199 420 1,050 Mapletree Investments

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust 2.8 36.2 Baa1 5,349 535 1,337 Mapletree Investments

Starhill Global Reit 1.9 28.7 BBB+ 2,847 285 712 YTL Corporation

Suntec REIT 4.3 34.8 Baa2 5,974 597 1,493 ARA

Industrial

Ascendas India Trust 0.8 25.0 n/a 1,012 101 253 Ascendas

Ascendas REIT 5.8 33.5 A3 7,868 787 1,967 Ascendas

Cache Logistics Trust 0.9 36.6 Baa3 1,221 122 305 CWT, ARA

Cambridge Industrial Trust 0.9 36.4 BBB- 1,391 139 348 NAB

Mapletree Industrial Trust 2.7 30.6 BBB+ 3,267 327 817 Mapletree Investments

Mapletree Logistics Trust 2.8 34.3 Baa1 4,631 463 1,158 Mapletree Investments

Soilbuild Business Space REIT 0.8 38.5 BBB- 1,088 109 272 Soilbuild Group

Hospitality

Ascendas Hospitality Trust 0.8 37.2 n/a 618 62 155 Ascendas

Ascott Residence Trust 2.0 38.7 Baa3 3,751 375 938 CapitaLand

CDL Hospitality Trusts 1.6 32.3 BBB- 2,298 230 575 M&C, City Developments

Far East Hospitality Trust 1.4 31.5 BBB- 2,479 248 620 Far East Organisation

Frasers Hospitality Trust 1.0 38.4 n/a 1,661 166 415 FCL

OUE Hospitality Trust 1.2 42.1 n/a 2,049 205 512 OUE

Healthcare

Parkway Life REIT 1.5 34.4 BBB 1,616 162 404 IHH

Religare Health Trust 0.8 13.6 n/a 824 82 206 Religare

Others

Keppel DC REIT 0.9 26.7 n/a 1,020 102 255 Keppel Corp

REITS not covered by DBS

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT 0.0 31.4 BBB- 1,233 123 308 AIMS and AMP

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 1.0 31.6 Baa3 1,786 179 447 Lippo Group

Sabana Shari'ah Compliant REIT 0.6 38.0 BBB- 1,260 126 315 Vibrant Group

Saizen REIT 0.2 37.0 Ba3 480 48 120 Japan Regional Assets Manager

V iva Industrial REIT 0.6 43.4 n/a 853 85 213 Ho Lee Group and Kim Seng Holdings

FIRST Reit 1.0 32.6 n/a 1,172 117 293 Lippo Group

* Ascendas India Trust and Croesus Retail Trust are business trust which are not impacted by the REIT gearing limits




Industry Focus

Singapore REITs

Page 5

Peer Comparison

REIT FYE Price Rec

Target

Price Mkt Cap

Total

Return Yield P/NAV

(S ) (S ) S 'm (%) FY15/16F FY16/17F FY17/18F FY15/16F

Office

CCT Dec 1.55 Hold 1.81 4,555 23% 5.9% 6.5% 6.8% 0.89

FCOT Sep 1.54 Buy 1.79 1,052 23% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 0.93

KREIT Dec 1.15 Buy 1.32 3,649 21% 6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 0.81

Retail

CRCT Dec 1.72 Hold 1.64 1,445 2% 6.4% 6.9% 7.5% 1.08

CMT Dec 2.12 Hold 2.19 7,343 9% 5.4% 5.5% 5.6% 1.17

CRT Jun 0.94 Buy 1.00 486 15% 8.5% 8.0% 7.9% 1.21

FCT Sep 2.08 Buy 2.20 1,906 12% 5.7% 5.8% 5.9% 1.12

SPH REIT Aug 1.05 Hold 1.03 2,652 3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.4% 1.13

Commercial

MCT Mar 1.46 Hold 1.63 3,087 17% 5.8% 6.1% 6.3% 1.18

MAGIC Mar 1.02 Buy 1.12 2,787 17% 7.1% 7.4% 7.3% 0.86

SGREIT Dec 0.88 Buy 0.91 1,919 9% 5.9% 6.5% 6.7% 0.93

Suntec Dec 1.72 Hold 1.76 4,306 8% 5.6% 5.9% 6.2% 0.83

Industrial

a-itrust Mar 0.91 Buy 0.96 836 12% 6.1% 6.1% 6.7% 1.34

A-REIT Mar 2.41 Hold 2.65 5,803 16% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 1.16

Cache Dec 1.15 Buy 1.28 900 19% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 1.19

CREIT Dec 0.69 Hold 0.73 888 13% 7.2% 7.3% 7.4% 1.02

MINT Mar 1.56 Buy 1.68 2,738 15% 6.8% 6.9% 7.4% 1.18MLT Mar 1.13 Buy 1.31 2,798 23% 6.6% 6.9% 7.1% 1.10

SBREIT Dec 0.86 Buy 0.91 795 14% 7.4% 7.6% 7.7% 1.08

Hospitality

ASCHT Mar 0.71 Buy 0.76 792 15% 8.4% 8.5% - 0.99

ART Dec 1.30 Buy 1.38 2,002 13% 6.8% 7.1% 7.6% 0.97

CDREIT Dec 1.61 Hold 1.77 1,584 17% 6.9% 7.0% 7.2% 0.98

FEHT Dec 0.79 Hold 0.76 1,398 4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 0.81

FHT Sep 0.835 Buy 0.96 1,007 22% 7.4% 7.6% 7.7% 0.96

OUEHT Dec 0.935 Buy 0.98 1,243 12% 7.3% 7.4% 7.7% 1.04

Healthcare

P-Life Dec 2.40 Buy 2.66 1,452 16% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 1.40

RHT Mar 1.03 Hold 1.04 822 8% 7.1% 8.2% 9.0% 1.09

Others

KDCREIT Dec 1.06 Buy 1.12 936 12% 6.2% 6.7% 7.1% 1.19

Sector Average 62,226 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 1.07




Industry Focus

Singapore REITs

Page 6

DBS Bank recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)

Share price appreciation + dividends

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER

This report is prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd and DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) PteLtd, its respective connected and associated corporations and affiliates (collectively, the “DBS Vickers Group”) only and no part of this documentmay be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank Ltd.

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBSBank Ltd., its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents

(collectively, the “DBS Group”)) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressedare subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document doesnot have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is forthe information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtainseparate independent legal or financial advice. The DBS Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss(including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given inrelation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBSGroup, along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned inthis document. The DBS Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seekto perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies.

Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and therecan be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or riskassessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete orcondensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report.

The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates andassumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates onwhich the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly fromactual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BERELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that:

(a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and(b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk

assessments stated therein.

Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies)mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating tothe commodity referred to in this report.

DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or researchdepartment, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companiesand their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/hercompensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of the date thereport is published,the analyst and his/her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in thesecurities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities).



Industry Focus

Singapore REITs

Page 7

COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

1. DBS Bank Ltd., DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates do not have aproprietary position in the securities recommended in this report as of 31 May 2015 except CapitaLand Commercial Trust, FrasersCommercial Trust, Keppel REIT, CapitaLand Retail China Trust, CapitaLand Mall Trust, Croesus Retail Trust, SPH REIT, Mapletree

Commercial Trust, Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, Starhill Global REIT, Suntec REIT, Ascendas India Trust, AscendasREIT, Cache Logistics Trust, Cambridge Industrial Trust, Mapletree Industrial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Soilbuild BusinessSpace Reit, Ascendas Hospitality Trust, Ascott Residence Trust, CDL Hospitality Trusts, Far East Hospitality Trust, Frasers HospitalityTrust, OUE Hospitality Trust, Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust, Religare Health Trust, Keppel DC REIT

2. DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of commonequity securities of Croesus Retail Trust, Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust, Starhill Global REIT, Soilbuild Business SpaceReit, Ascott Residence Trust, Far East Hospitality Trust, Frasers Hospitality Trust, Keppel DC REIT and 5% of Croesus Retail Trustmentioned as of 31 May 2015

3. Compensation for investment banking services:

DBS Bank Ltd., DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have received compensation, within the past 12months, and within the next 3 months may receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Croesus Retail Trust, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Ascendas REIT, Soilbuild Business Space Reit, Ascott Residence Trust, FrasersHospitality Trust, Keppel DC REIT

DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment bankingtransaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information,

including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this documentshould contact DBSVUSA exclusively.

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General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of orlocated in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would becontrary to law or regulation.

Australia This report is being distributed in Australia by DBS Bank Ltd. (“DBS”) or DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”),both of which are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the Corporation Act2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS and DBSVS are regulated by the MonetaryAuthority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, which differ from Australian laws. Distribution of this report is intendedonly for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.

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Malaysia This report is distributed in Malaysia by AllianceDBS Research Sdn Bhd ("ADBSR") (formerly known as HwangDBS VickersResearch Sdn Bhd). Recipients of this report, received from ADBSR are to contact the undersigned at 603-2604 3333 inrespect of any matters arising from or in connection with this report. In addition to the General Disclosure/Disclaimer foundat the preceding page, recipients of this report are advised that ADBSR (the preparer of this report), its holding companyAlliance Investment Bank Berhad, their respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers,employees, agents and parties related or associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions inthe securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisoryand other services for the subject companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensationfor broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies.

Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR

Singapore

This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) or DBSVS (Company Regn No.198600294G), both of which are Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by theMonetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBSVS, may distribute reports produced by its respective foreignentities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the FinancialAdvisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, ExpertInvestor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such personsonly to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 6327 2288 for matters arising from,or in connection with the report.

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This report is being distributed in Thailand by DBS Vickers Securities (Thailand) Co Ltd. Research reports distributed are onlyintended for institutional clients only and no other person may act upon it.



Industry Focus

Singapore REITs

Page 8

United

Kingdom

This report is being distributed in the UK by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, who is an authorised person in the meaning ofthe Financial Services and Markets Act and is regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Research distributed in the UK isintended only for institutional clients.

Dubai This research report is being distributed in The Dubai International Financial Centre (“DIFC”) by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch)having its office at PO Box 506538, 3

rd Floor, Building 3, East Wing, Gate Precinct, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC),

Dubai, United Arab Emirates. DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) is regulated by The Dubai Financial Services Authority. Thisresearch report is intended only for professional clients (as defined in the DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act uponit.

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Other

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DBS Bank Ltd.

12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3Singapore 018982Tel. 65-6878 8888

Company Regn. No. 196800306E

Documents

150703 Insights Impact of Reit Reforms in Singapore