15 - Ethical Decision Making

7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making

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Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014

Engineering and Society:Ethical Decision Making

Dr. Gershon Weltman

Engineering 183EW, UC! SE!S

ect"re 1#


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2Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014

$he Decision En%ironment1

&ealWorld

Sit"ationModel

Co"rseo' !ction

1

!'ter: Cohen, M.S. ()m*ro%ing Critical $hinking,+ Cogniti%e $echnologies, )nc., --#

NaturalisticDecisionMaking

ercei%e/ 0"ild

Use he"ristics to select

!ct on thereal orld


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$he Decision En%ironment1

&ealWorld

Sit"ationModel

Co"rseo' !ction

Analysis Test2s some !elay accepta"le#2s the cost o$ an error high#2s the situation un$amiliar or pro"lematic#2s tracea"ility%accounta"ility !esira"le#

Decision !nalysis

1

!'ter: Cohen, M.S. ()m*ro%ing Critical $hinking,+ Cogniti%e $echnologies, )nc., --#

$ yes, procee! to

NaturalisticDecisionMaking

AnalyticalDecision

Making

!nalye

/ 0"ild a

4"antitati%elyselect o*timal

!ct on the

real orld

&e'ine /5"anti'y


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!nalytical Decision Making

A &ro$essional 'e(uirement

Working e%el

Management e%el

Strategic and olicy e%el

A Conscious &rocess

Cogniti%e er'ormance

Meta6Cogniti%e E%al"ation

A )earna"le *kill

Methodologies

E7*erience and ractice

eed0ack and !d9"stment

Dealing ith Stress Working Colla0orati%ely

)n the real orld, decisions are generally a com0ination o' nat"ralistic and analytical


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$o Main $y*es o' Decision !nalyses

(Certain+ "tcomes (ro0a0ilistic+ "tcomes


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M!U! 1: *tions and !ttri0"tes

1 Car &urchase +ptions

2 Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet Garnett

/ Cost 20 1 13 14 12 10 1

4 )i$etime 10 10 3 3

Car"on )o5 Me!ium )o5 Me!ium Me!ium 6igh 6igh

3

7 Cost8 Thousan!s o$ Dollars

)i$etime8 -stimate! 9ears

: Car"on8 /)e;el Test *ummary


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M!U! : Dominated *tion

1 Car &urchase +ptions

2 Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet Garnett

/ Cost 20 1 13 14 12 10 1

4 )i$etime 10 10 3 3

Car"on )o5 Me!ium )o5 Me!ium 6igh 6igh 6igh

3

7 Cost8 Thousan!s o$ Dollars

)i$etime8 -stimate! 9ears

: Car"on8 /)e;el Test *ummary

Garnett costs more than the Delta, has the same li'etime and has ahigher *oll"tion rating? it is th"s (dominated+ and can 0e eliminated


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M!U! 3: Monetary E5"i%alents

1 Car &urchase +ptions2 Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet

/ Cost 20 1 13 14 12 10

4 )i$etime 2 2 1 1 0 0

Car"on 3 4 3 4 0 0

3 Cost 12 12 : : 12 10

7

Cost Thousan!

: )i$etime 3 years < 0, each a!!itional year < =00

10 Car"on 6igh < 0, Me!ium < =4,000, )o5 < =3,000

We gi%e i'etime and oll"tion e(ui;alent negati;e costs indollars in order to make them directly com*ara0le to Cost.


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M!U! 3: Monetary E5"i%alents

Medi"m *rice, medi"m li'e and lo or medi"m *oll"tion make eitherthe Cr"iser or Delta the 0est choice on a least cost 0asis

1 Car &urchase Alternati;es2 Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet

/ Cost 20 1 13 14 12 10

4 )i$etime 2 2 1 1 0 0

Car"on 3 4 3 4 0 0

3 -(> Cost 12 12 : : 12 107

Cost Thousan!

: )i$etime 3 years < 0, each a!!itional year < =00

10 Car"on 6igh < 0, Me!ium < =4,000, )o5 < =3,000


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M!U! @: Utility Meas"re

Utility =- to 1>

Cost: U=A-> B 1, U=A-,---> B -.? linear i'etime: U=- years> B -, U=1- years> B 1? linear Car0on: U=igh> B -, U=Medi"m> B -.8, U=o> B 1?

1

00? 20?10?

Cost

@tility

1

0 0 10

)i$etime

@tility

)o5 6ighMe!

Car"on

$he Utility meas"re *"ts the %ario"s attri0"tes on an e(ui;alent ;alue0asis.

0>


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M!U! @: Utility and Weight

Utility =- to 1>

Cost: U=A-> B 1, U=A-,---> B -.? linear i'etime: U= years> B -, U=1- years> B 1? linear

Car0on: U=igh> B -, U=Medi"m> B -.8, U=o> B 1? non6linear

Weight =- to 1> Cost B -.#- i'etime B -.1#

Car0on B -.3#

S"m B 1.-- =!lays>

@tilitymeas"res the amount of satisfactionassociated ith each attri0"te.Weightmeas"res the relative importanceo' each attri0"te 'or total satis'action.


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M!U! #: Weighted M"lti6!ttri0"te Utility

1 Car &urchase Alternati;es

2 Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet

/ Cost 0>20 0>/0 0>/: 0>42 0> 0>30

4 )i$etime 1>00 1>00 0>0 0>0 0>30 0>30

Car"on 1>00 0>0 1>00 0>0 0>00 0>00

3 Weighte! MA@ 0>30 0> 0>37 0>31 0>/7 0>/:

7 Weighte! MA@ @CarB < 5Cost@Cost= 5)i$e@)i$e= 5&oll@&oll

Weights 51= 52= 5/< 1

Weighted M!U takes into acco"nt 0oth the %al"e and im*ortance o' decisionattri0"tes. Using this criterion, the Cr"iser emerges as the o*tim"m choice.


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M!U! : Sensiti%ity

Ne5 Weights

Cost B -.8- =%. -.#-> i'etime B -.1- =%. -.1#> Car0on B -.1- =%. -.3#>

Ne5 'esult

igh relati%e eight makes Cost dominate the analysis. Sensiti%ity tests canhel* determine on hich s*eci'ic attri0"tes an analysis sho"ld 'oc"s

Car &urchase Alternati;es

Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet

Cost 0>20 0>/0 0>/: 0>42 0> 0>30

)i$etime 1>00 1>00 0>0 0>0 0>30 0>30

Car"on 1>00 0>0 1>00 0>0 0>00 0>00

*umme! @tility 2>20 2>10 2>1: 2>02 1>1 1>20

Weighte! @tility 0>/3 0>42 0>4: 0>0 0>0 0>4


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Decisions With ro0a0ilistic "tcomes

Conditions Se%eral !lternati%es ro0a0ilistic "tcomes and Conse5"ences

*timal Choice !mong !lternati%es

$y*ical Decision Criterion Minim"m Expected Cost

Ma7im"m Expected


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Con%entional Decision $ree1

1

rom .smartdra.com, --3

This Decision Tree has no82 'elati;e Ealues2 Negati;e +utcomes or Costs2 @ncertainties

an! as a result it is useless $ormeaning$ul !ecision making
http://www.smartdraw.com/http://www.smartdraw.com/


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$o* e%el Decision Making: resident ;"sh


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$o* e%el Decision Making: resident 0ama

Obama personally reenergized the hunt (for Osama binLaden)He began pushing his national security team to come upwith creative, new approaches to the manhunt, and once theintelligence community received its first big brea, Obama andhis team pursued a data!driven review of their options that

would have made "omney proud# $he final decision to launchthe assault was not a cavalier roll of the dice, it was acalculated ris baced up by one of the most elaborate andmeticulous intelligence operations in %merican history#&

Daniel laidman, $he ort"nate neHeseek, Ho%em0er 1I, -1


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Decision $ree 1: )nitial *tions

Ne5 &ro!uctDe;elopment

mpro;e

usiness

mpro;ement in-Fisting usiness

Decision

@ncertainty


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Decision $ree : Secondary *tions

Ne5 &ro!uct

usinessmpro;ement

.ull De;elopment

.ast De;elopment

More A!;ertising

etter *er;ice

mpro;e

usiness


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Decision $ree 3: Uncertain Conse5"ences

Ne5 &ro!uct

.ull De;elopment

.ast De;elopment

More A!;ertising

etter *er;ice

*uccess

.ailure

*uccess

.ailure

*uccess

.ailure

*uccess

.ailure

usinessmpro;ement

mpro;e

usiness


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Decision $ree @: Estimated "tcomes =A>

Ne5 &ro!uct

.ull De;elopment

.ast De;elopment

More A!;ertising

etter *er;ice

*uccess

.ailure

*uccess

.ailure

*uccess

.ailure

*uccess

.ailure

ene$it Cost

40? 200?B

0? 200?B

40? 100?B

0? 100?B

20? 7?B

2? 7?B

/00? 7?B

20? 0?B

usinessmpro;ement

We estimate the ;ene'it and Cost o' each *ossi0le o"tcome

mpro;e

usiness


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Decision $ree #: Estimated ro0a0ilities =>

Ne5 &ro!uct

.ull De;elopment

.ast De;elopment

More A!;ertising

etter *er;ice

&*B < 0>:0

&.B < 0>10

&*B < 0>7

&.B < 0>2

&*B < 0>0

&.B < 0>20

&*B < 0>30

&.B < 0>40

ene$it Cost

40? 200?B

0? 200?B

40? 100?B

0? 100?B

20? 7?B

2? 7?B

/00? 0?B

20? 0?B

usinessmpro;ement

We estimate the *ro0a0ility or likelihood that each *ossi0le o"tcome ill occ"r

mpro;e

usiness


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Decision $ree : Het


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Decision $ree K: E7*ected


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Decision $ree K: Selected *tion

Ne5 &ro!uct

.ull De;elopment

.ast De;elopment

More A!;ertising

etter *er;ice

&*B < 0>:0

&.B < 0>10

&*B < 0>7

&.B < 0>2

&*B < 0>0

&.B < 0>20

&*B < 0>30

&.B < 0>40

Net Ealue

20?

10?B

/0?

100?B

17?

0?B

20?

/0?B

-Fpecte!Ealue

210?

2/?

1/0?

1/?

$he selected decision has tracea"ilityand accounta"ilityas (0ranch+ in tree

mpro;e

usiness

usinessmpro;ement


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Decision $ree 8: J =>=Utility o' ail"re>

M!U1

M!U8

M!UK

M!U

M!U#

M!U@

M!U3

M!U

EU"ll

EUast

EU!ds

EUSer%eusinessmpro;ement

mpro;e

usiness


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S"mmary

Chose Meaning'"l


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E7am*le o' ;iases: Estimating Deaths er Near

&are 0"t highly*"0licied e%entsare o%erestimated

Common 0"t lessindi%id"alied e%entsare "nderestimated

rom ;ar"ch ischho'' et al, (!cce*ta0le &isk,+ Cam0ridge Uni%ersity ress, 1I81

&esearchers ha%e st"died a %ariety o' other 0iases that can a''ect therationality o' decisions made on the 0asis o' commonly "sed he"ristics


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E7am*le o' !**lications

as"it Decision $ree !nalysis

Martha Steart Ethical !nalysis


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as"it Decision $ree !nalysisO

&ange o' "tcomes

Use !nalysis 'or oints to )n%estigate

PairL Settlement


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Martha Steart Decision oint

MarthaLs 0rokerLs assistant calls her hile she is on %acation in Me7icoand tells her that inside oners are ra*idly selling all their )mClone stock

Whatto !o#

6ol! My *tock

*a;e Money)ook *mart

)ose Money)ook *tupi!

*ell My *tock


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Martha Steart Makes )nt"iti%e Decision

6ol! My *tock

*a;e Money)ook *mart

)ose Money)ook *tupi!

*ell My *tock

Martha Steart decides to sell on 0asis o' *otential (inside in'ormation.+

SEC in%estigates, Martha lies to them and is *rosec"ted, inds "* in 9ail.

Whatto !o#

Image from http://tubegator.com/funpic/martha_jailbird.jpg


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Martha Steart Makes !nalytical Decision

*uccess &::

.ailure &01

*uccess &0

.ailure &< 0>0

ene$it Cost Net -E

0? 0?B 0?

0? 2B 2B

0? 0?B 0?B

20MB

0?B 6ol! My *tock

*ell My *tock

Whatto !o#

Martha Steart does a (0ack o' the en%elo*e+ analysis, sees the 0ig di''erence

in E7*ected


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Martha Steart Makes Ethical Decision

Martha Steart does an Pethical a"ditL and recognies that it is unethical'or her to sell on s"s*ected inside in'ormation, e%en i' it might 0e legal.

She holds her stock, loses momentarily, 0"t again li%es ha**ily e%er a'ter.

*ell My *tock

6ol! My *tock

Whatto !o#


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!n EthicistLsDilemma

;ad decisions, e%en 0ad ethicaldecisions, may not all ha%e 0adconse5"ences. Martha says:

() canLt e%en remem0er hat )as con%icted 'or.+

Did Martha and the !merican0"siness comm"nity learn

anything 'rom this case history$he recent 'inancial crisis ca"sed

0y ram*ant lying, cheating andstealing in the mortgage market

s"ggests that it didnLt.


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;"t $here May 0e Q"stice !'ter !ll

os !ngeles $imes, Decem0er #, -1-


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S"mmary: Ethics in Decision Making

$he (Controlling actor+

E.g. (Ethics tr"m*s economics+ (We donLt do thatR+ (We ha%e to do thisR+

!nother ;ene'it and Cost actor ersonal, rganiational or Societal


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Gro"* Decision Making

! Common rocess $oday

Decision Gro"*s !re: "ong #tandingorAd hoc

Generally $ulti%&isciplinary

"ocalor 'emote

Advisoryor (inal

$he Decision Making roced"re )s: )nstructured and )naided

Str"ct"red

!nalytical =M!U!, decision tree>

!nother Methodology Str"ct"red and !ided


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Unstr"ct"red Decision Gro"* roced"re

"rd"e Uni%ersity, ersonnel ;rie'ing, --#

E%ol%ing Sol"tion.May0e.


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Early Gro"* Decision !nalysis !id

Gro"* Decision !id, erce*tronics, 1I8-

Computer Ai!e!82&$ artici*ation2$ree Constr"ction

2


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!ided %s Unaided $eam !cti%ities

Acti;ity Ai!e! Groups @nai!e! Groups

+"Hecti;es De$inition I 3I

n$ormation -Fchange 14I /7I

Action Generation 23I 4I

Ealue -stimation 21I 4I

&ro"a"ility -stimation 7I 0>:I

Attri"ute! Weighting 10I 1>0I

Con$lict 'esolution 11I 0>0I

!ided gro"*s s*read their time more e%enly o%er analytical decision acti%ities.


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2COA Evaluation2COA Selection2Sensitivities

#. Ena0les e%al"ation andcom*arison o' C! o*tions

. ighlights decision6rele%ant in'ormation

K. ro%ides distinctdecision *rod"cts

@. romotes de%elo*mento' m"lti*le C! o*tions

State6o'6the6!rt Decision S"**ort System

Diagram co"rtesy erce*tronics Sol"tions, )nc.

Decision n$rastructure $or Colla"orati;e &lanning

. rganies rele%antsit"ational in'ormation

3. ighlights / resol%essit"ational data con'licts

1. ro%ides a commonanalytical 'rameork.

'


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)n'l"ence Diagram &e*resentation! sim*le )n'l"ence Diagram

art o' an )n'l"ence Diagram "sed 'or mission*lanning: $he o*tional tasks are on the le't, the

o"tcomes they in'l"ence and the sit"ation'actors a''ecting those o"tcomes are in themiddle, and the end state "tility is on the right

)n'l"ence Diagrams are an e''icient ay to re*resent large Decision $rees

D i i M ki U d St


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Decision Making Under Stress

$he ca"ses o' stress !ssessment that task demands may e7ceed *ersonal ca*acity &ealiation that serio"sly 0ad o"tcomes may occ"r

$he e''ects o' stress on decision making Harroed attention lea%es less ca*acity 'or *ro0lem sol%ing

Sim*li'ied strategies red"ce the set o' o*tions considered

Decisions are h"rried to relie%e the stress e''ects

Strategies 'or mitigating the e''ects o' stress &ecognie the stress le%el

E7*ect and "nderstand the *sycho6*hysiological e''ects

De*end more on str"ct"red, 'amiliar *roced"res earn to "se the stress reaction energy *rod"cti%ely

D ti th D i i


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Doc"menting the Decision rocess

E7ec"ti%e S"mmary State the ro0lem S"mmarie the Methodology Gi%e the Concl"sions

!**roach "tline 09ecti%es, Method / Meas"res Descri0e ;ene'its and imitations

&es"lts H"merical Data and ;ack"* &ecommendations and &easoning

!**ro*riate ormats &e*ort or Memorand"m ormal or )n'ormal ;rie'ing 1#63- Second (Ele%ator itch+

$he *"r*ose is recommendation, 9"sti'ication and acco"nta0ility.

$h D i i M t i


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$he Decision Matri7

Goo! +utcome a! +utcome

Goo! Decision-Fpecte! @nlucky

a! Decision )ucky -Fpecte!

$he right thing in Engineering Decision Making is: )ncl"de ! o' the rele%ant 'actors Make ;ES$ USE o' the in'ormation at hand

Do the right thing enough times and the results take care of themselves.

!marillo Slim, US oker Cham*ion

! D H t !d itti t ; d D i i


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! Danger: Hot !dmitting to ;ad Decisions

P&esol"tion o' Cogniti%e DissonanceL Hat"reLs (do"0lethink+ *re%ention Sel' 9"sti'ication makes alternati%es look

0etter aterthey are chosen

Good 'eat"res o' Cogniti%e Dissonance DonLt seat the small st"''

May hel* yo" learn a0o"t yo"rsel'

;ad 'eat"res o' Cogniti%e Dissonance olding on to 'alse *remises in the 'ace o'

later 'acts &ationaliing oneLs choices as the 0est

*ossi0le "nder the circ"mstance

Escalating rong co"rses o' action

!%oiding 0lame hen 0lame is d"e .ailing to learn $rom mistakesJ

i ' Mi t k i H t & ll H )d


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earning 'rom Mistakes is Hot &eally a He )dea

A great manWhen he makes a mistake, he realizes it.Having realized it, he admits it.Having admitted it, he corrects it.

He considers those who point out his faults as his most benevolent teachers.

Lao Tzuld !aster" of #hina $ather of Taoism,%th#entur& '.#.

Documents

15 - Ethical Decision Making