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Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Sep 11-13, 2013
Dublin, Ireland
Maintenance Cost Estimates for Leasing - A new approach for the next generation airplanes!
Khwaja M. (KM) Ali
Director, Maintenance Economics
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Background on maintenance reserves
Outdated Maintenance Reserves Report and deficiencies
New technology airplanes and new era requirements
New Maintenance Cost Estimates for Leasing
Maintenance Cost Estimates for Leasing Overview
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Protects the maintenance asset value for a lessor
Collected on high value components with long intervals between events
Reserves plus the residual condition of select high cost maintenance events keep the economic condition of the
aircraft in equilibrium
Most contentious item in lease negotiations
When maintenance reserves are not collected some collateral, like Letter of Credit, is usually required to cover the
value of the asset
Why collect Maintenance Reserves?
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Airplanes on Operating Lease
50% 38%
2013
Current Fleet 2032
20 year
Forecast
20,310 41,240
Current Fleet: 20,310 38% or 7,700 on Operating Lease Estimated 25% or 2,000 airplanes have maintenance reserve transactions
Leased airplanes market share increases to 50% and fleet doubles in 20 years
Maintenance Reserve transactions will triple in 20 years
% on Operating Lease
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Maintenance Reserves collected on high value items
Typical Reserved High Value &.. Major Events . Long Intervals
Not Reserved
Stage Length: 2 Fhrs/Trip
Utilization: 3,400 Fhrs/Year
Labor Rate: $55/Mhr, all Contract
Engine: CFM56-7B27E
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Maintenance Costs Airframe
Event costs modeled directly and presented explicitly
Utilizes discrete event cost data from industry sources
Engine
Based on OEM shop visit costs
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
ICAS data better reflects market realities Data Sources:
Operator Reported Data
Maintenance Planning
Documents (Intervals)
Industry Publications
Boeings Vendor Costs
Boeings TOPIC$
Conferences
MRO Quotes
Boeings In-Service Data
Program (ISDP)
US DOT Form 41
Data
IATA Maintenance
Cost Task Force (MCTF)
Data
Boeings Reliability
Department (RM&T)
ICAS: Integrated Cost Analysis System Industry leading operating cost tool
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
737NG modeling based on industry data
Maintenance
Event
# of Airlines
Reported # of Data Points
A-Check 19 1,780
C-Check 25 655
D-Check 11 77
APU 23 40
Landing Gear 18 28
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Outdated Maintenance Reserves Report - Sample MAINTENANCE RESERVE REPORT
ESTIMATED MATURE MAINTENANCE COSTS 2012 US DOLLARS PER FLIGHT HOURAirplane Type: 777-300ER Engine: GE90-115 Flight Time: 8.00
Max TOGW(lbs): 775,000 Thrust(lb): 115,300
Engine Derate (%): 11.87 MSVR: 0.051
Annual Utilization: 4,012
MAINTENANCE RESERVES
BREAKDOWN LABOR MATERIAL TOTAL
C or 1C-3C Check 47.46 15.74 63.21
D/SI or 4C/SI Check 36.29 13.64 49.94
Checks (Sub-Total) 83.76 29.39 113.14
Landing Gear Overhaul & Repair 13.10 3.77 16.87
APU Shop 10.72 22.59 33.32
Shop (Sub-Total) 23.83 26.36 50.19
AIRFRAME (Sub-Total) 107.58 55.75 163.34
QEC Shop 11.97 41.77 53.74
Engine Shop 33.47 826.50 859.97
Life Limited Parts - 150.07 150.07
ENGINE (Sub-Total) 45.43 1018.34 1063.77
TOTAL DIRECT 153.02 1074.09 1227.11
OVERHEAD - - -
TOTAL MAINTENANCE 153.02 1074.09 1227.11
Note 1: Engine maintenance cost estimates utilize baselines prov ided by the manufacturer in accordance w ith EMCWG Specifications, Version 4.2. Each engine in this
study has been subjected to a credibility assessment by Boeing and has been placed in an EMCWG defined "credibility category " (see accompany ing Ground Rules).
Note 2: Material Costs include equally distributed shipping and handling costs.
29-M ar-12 1:34 PM
Study: 1 Wide Body Code: 26841680
Maintenance Reserves
20 year old and very popular, but,
outdated Maintenance Reserve Report needs changes
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Are the constituents OK all high value assets addressed?
Is the format user friendly?
What Changes are needed?
Other OEMs or Lessor samples
Industry Standard needed
Maintenance Reserves Report changes needed
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Maintenance Reserves are collected on monthly basis not just on Flight Hour basis
Event Cost (Labor & Material) provided
Interval between events noted
Lessors and airlines can calculate independently for variable utilization
Mature cost not suitable for older leased airplanes
25 year Life Cycle Cost (LCC) method introduced for new airplanes
Age and study duration for older airplanes is used for accurate cost forecast
Maintenance Reserves on QEC (Powerplant) Components not collected
Deleted from listing
New technology, high cost components of new generation airplanes to be considered
Thrust Reversers
Nitrogen Inerting System Osmosis filter
Variable Frequency Starter Generators
No new components found suitable for reserves collection
Deficiencies in Outdated Maintenance Reserves Report
Changes needed !
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Thrust Reversers
Nitrogen Inerting System Osmosis Filter
Starter Generators
787: High Value Components
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
VFSG (Variable Frequency Starter Generator)
ASG (Auxiliary Starter Generator)
Supplier: Hamilton-Sundstrand
787 Generator Overhaul Cost Estimates
x4
x2
List Price
(2012 USD)
MTBR
(FH)
Estimated
MTBF
(FH)
QPA Estimated
OH Cost $/FH
VFSG
(ATA 24) $451,000 15,000 16,500 4 $38,400 $2.33
ASG
(ATA 49) $287,000 20,000 22,000 2 $24,400 $1.11
Less complex than IDG
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Contains section on Maintenance Cost Estimates for Leasing
Lessors and Appraisers Aircraft Handbook New!
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Maintenance Cost Estimates for Leasing New!
Contains popular models maintenance cost estimates for leasing in new format
All airplane models cost estimates available on CD
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Maintenance Cost Estimates for Leasing the new report!
Airplane Type: 777-300ER GE90-115B 12.60
Max TOGW (LB): 775,000 115,300 5,033
10.00
Average
Labor
Hours*
Labor
Rate
Average
Event Labor
Cost*
Average
Event
Material
Cost*
Average
Estimated
Maintenance
Cost*
Days Months YearsFH
Limit
FC
Limit
A-Check 332 $55 $18,200 $27,000 $45,200 1,000
C or 1C-3C Check 4,349 $55 $239,200 $250,100 $489,300 37 6,000
D/SI or 4C/SI Check 21,201 $55 $1,166,100 $1,288,900 $2,455,000 8 16,000
Sub-Total 25,882 $55 $1,423,500 $1,566,000 $2,989,500
Landing Gear Overhaul** $55 $696,000 10 16,000
APU Overhaul** $55 $446,700 13,500
Engine Shop***
Engine LLP 15,000
Cost estimates are averages, actuals typically range between +/- 10% * includes SB/AD estimates
Interval Assumptions may vary with airline practices. ** Excludes fees / scrapage / exchange
*** includes labor, material, and Outside Shop Repair
Calendar Limit
Average Overhaul
(per engine)
$6,601,900
$6,480,300
Engine Derate (%): Starting Age: 0
Report Period: 25 years
First Maintenance Cycle Intervals
Maintenance Cost Estimates for Leasing
25 year average costs, 2012 USDEngine: Fleet Avg Flight Time:
Thrust (LB): Fleet Avg Utilization:
8.00
Excludes Exchange Fee and S&H
22,700
Engine
Hours
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Boeing acts as an unbiased 3rd party between airlines and lessors
Starting point for maintenance reserve discussions
Boeing estimates costs, reserves are negotiated
Maintenance Cost Estimates for Leasing
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Boeing can assist both airlines and lessors in Lease Transitions: Boeing Edge
Everything needed to rapidly redeploy your aircraft
Benefits & Value:
Aircraft Transition Service Globally-accepted OEM certification
One OEM point of contact for contracted services for lease returns / lease transitions / new lease requirements
Reduced transition times
Reliable records accuracy
Bridging maintenance
Preservation of asset values
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
New Maintenance Cost Estimate for Leasing
Displays Event Cost and Check Intervals
Life Cycle Cost considered, Mature term discarded
Older leased airplanes cost estimates are more accurate
New technology components considered of inclusion
Maintenance Cost Estimates for Leasing Summary:
Airplane Type: 777-300ER GE90-115B 12.60
Max TOGW (LB): 775,000 115,300 5,033
10.00
Average
Labor
Hours*
Labor
Rate
Average
Event Labor
Cost*
Average
Event
Material
Cost*
Average
Estimated
Maintenance
Cost*
Days Months YearsFH
Limit
FC
Limit
A-Check 332 $55 $18,200 $27,000 $45,200 1,000
C or 1C-3C Check 4,349 $55 $239,200 $250,100 $489,300 37 6,000
D/SI or 4C/SI Check 21,201 $55 $1,166,100 $1,288,900 $2,455,000 8 16,000
Sub-Total 25,882 $55 $1,423,500 $1,566,000 $2,989,500
Landing Gear Overhaul** $55 $696,000 10 16,000
APU Overhaul** $55 $446,700 13,500
Engine Shop***
Engine LLP 15,000
Cost estimates are averages, actuals typically range between +/- 10% * includes SB/AD estimates
Interval Assumptions may vary with airline practices. ** Excludes fees / scrapage / exchange
*** includes labor, material, and Outside Shop Repair
Calendar Limit
Average Overhaul
(per engine)
$6,601,900
$6,480,300
Engine Derate (%): Starting Age: 0
Report Period: 25 years
First Maintenance Cycle Intervals
Maintenance Cost Estimates for Leasing
25 year average costs, 2012 USDEngine: Fleet Avg Flight Time:
Thrust (LB): Fleet Avg Utilization:
Copyright 2012 Boeing. All rights reserved. Dublin, Sep 11-13, 2013
Thank you!
Questions?