140113 - ANZ Job Ads Dec12

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    ANZ RESEARCH

    MEDI A RELEASE

    Embargoed until 11:30am, Monday 14 January 2013

    JOB ADVERTI SI NG CONTI NUED TO W EAKEN I N DECEMBER

    High l i gh t s

    The number of job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers declined 3.8% m/m in December,

    following a fall of 2.8% m/m in November. This was the tenth consecutive monthly decline and thenumber of job advertisements in December was the lowest since January 2010. The number of jobadvertisements declined by 16% over the year. In trend terms, job advertisements declined 2.8% m/m inDecember.

    The number of job advertisements in newspapers is estimated to have declined 0.4% m/m in December.ANZ received only partial data for December newspaper job advertising in NSW and Victoria so estimateshave been used for the missing data. Any effect on the estimate of aggregate newspaper and internet jobadvertisements, however, is likely to be small given that newspaper job advertisements account for just4% of the total number of job advertisements. Newspaper job advertising increased in Queensland andWestern Australia during December, was broadly stable in Victoria and declined in the other states andterritories. We caution, however, that job advertising can be particularly volatile around the end of theyear, even after adjusting for typical seasonal patterns. In trend terms, newspaper job advertisingdeclined in all states, the exceptions being the Northern Territory and Tasmania.

    The number of internet job advertisements fell 3.9% m/m in December after falling 2.8% m/m inNovember. Internet job advertisements were 15.3% lower over the year.

    ANZ Head o f Aust ra l ian Econom ics , Corpo ra te and Com m erc ia l Jus t in Fabo sa id :

    Job advertising continued to weaken at the end of 2012. The number of job advertisements in Decemberwas 20% below the most recent peak in February 2012 and has fallen to almost half the level reachedbefore the global financial crisis.

    Job advertising is a key barometer of economic activity and business confidence. Its ongoing weaknesssuggests that conditions for a large share of Australian businesses remain challenging and the outlookuncertain. In addition, job advertising trends in the resources states of Western Australia and Queenslanddeteriorated significantly over 2012 as commodity prices fell sharply. ANZs view is that the recent sharp

    rise in iron ore prices will not see a commensurate rebound in job advertising in Western Australia asmining firms are expected to maintain a keen focus on cost reduction.

    Without a solid pick-up in the non-mining sectors as the contribution to overall growth from mininginvestment shrinks through 2013, ANZs view is that Australias unemployment rate is set to drift higher toaround 5% from 5.2% currently by mid to late this year. The degree of spare capacity in the labourmarket, however, is already greater than the current jobless rate suggests, with labour force participationamong some key working age groups falling noticeably over the past couple of years. In part, this hasbeen because rising job losses have seen a higher share of jobseekers give up looking for work.

    The ABS releases December labour force data this Thursday, 17 January. Trends in job advertising pointto a rise in the unemployment rate in the month after it declined surprisingly in November. ANZ expectsthe unemployment rate to have risen to 5.4% in December and for employment to have risen onlymodestly. Labour market conditions are expected to remain relatively soft in at least the near term, with

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    ANZ RESEARCH

    falling job advertising consistent with employment growth not keeping up with growth in the working agepopulation.

    We expect growth in the Australian economy to be noticeably below trend this year as the economytransitions towards a lower dependence on mining investment growth. The Australian dollar is expected toremain elevated and not provide support to the economy while government finances will continue to be adrag on growth. Further monetary easing is therefore necessary to generate sufficient expansion ininterest-rate sensitive sectors to support overall growth and limit the rise in the unemployment rate. ANZexpects the RBA to lower the cash rate by a further 25bps in coming months and for modest growth tonecessitate further policy easing over the remainder of this year.

    AN Z JOB ADVERTI SEMENTS SERI ES RELEASE DATES FOR 2 01 3

    FOR DATA COVERI NG: AN Z RELEASE DATES:

    December 2012 14 January 2013

    January 2013 4 February 2013

    February 2013 4 March 2013

    March 2013 8 April 2013

    April 2013 6 May 2013

    May 2013 3 June 2013

    June 2013 8 July 2013July 2013 6 August 2013

    August 2013 9 September 2013

    September 2013 7 October 2013

    October 2013 4 November 2013

    November 2013 9 December 2013

    For further comment contact: For data enquiries contact: For media and distributionenquiries contact:

    Just in Fabo Sav i ta S ingh V ic to r ia Kanevsky

    Head of Australian Economics,Corporate & Commercial

    Economic Analyst Media Relations Advisor

    Tel: (02) 9227 1646 Tel: (02) 9227 1500 Tel: (03) 8654 4469Email:[email protected]

    Email:[email protected]

    Email:[email protected]

    Next re lease: January 2012 Expected re lease da te : Monday 4 February 2013

    N ote fo r ed i to r s :

    For some of the newspapers surveyed, the ANZ Job Advertisements series counts the number of advertisement bookings.Each booking may contain multiple advertisements. In addition, the ANZ series counts classified advertisements only, anddoes not include display advertisements. For these reasons, it would be incorrect to draw any inference or correlation from theANZ series regarding advertising volumes or revenues from employment advertising in the newspapers surveyed. The ANZseries is not intended to, and should not, be used to assess the financial performance of any of the newspapers included in it.

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    ANZ RESEARCH

    ANZ JOB ADVERTI SEMENTS SERI ES

    T o t a l j ob ads (new spape r & i n t e rne t )

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

    '000perweek

    Seasona l ly Ad ju s ted

    Trend

    Change i n new spape r , i n t e rne t & t o t a l j ob adve r t i sem en t s

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

    y/y%c

    hange,seasonallyadjusted

    Newspaper Internet Total

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    Gr o w t h i n t o t a l j o b a d v er t i s em e n t s & e m p l o y m e n t

    -60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

    y/y%c

    hange

    ,seasonallyadjusted

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    y/y%change,sea

    sonallyadjusted

    Newspaper job ads 6 months forward (lhs) Employment (rhs) Jo b a d v e r t i se m e n t s & u n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e

    3.5

    4.0

    4.5

    5.0

    5.5

    6.0

    6.5

    03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

    Percent

    0.3

    0.7

    1.1

    1.5

    1.9

    2.3

    2.7

    Percentoflabourforce,inv

    erted

    Unemployment rate (LHS) ANZ job ads (RHS)

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    Sta te & t e r r i t o r y new spape r da ta

    N ew Sou t h W a les

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

    '000,

    jobadsperweek

    Seasona l ly Ad ju s ted

    Trend

    Vic to r ia

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

    '000,

    jobadsperweek

    Seasona l ly Ad ju s ted

    Trend

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    Queens land

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

    '000,

    job

    adsperweek

    Seasona l ly Ad j us ted

    Trend

    W es t e r n Aus t r a l i a

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    4.5

    98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

    '000,

    jobadsperweek

    Seasona l ly Ad ju s ted

    Trend

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    South Aus t ra l ia

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    1.8

    2.0

    98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

    '000,jobadsperweek

    Seasona l ly Ad ju s ted

    Trend

    Tasmania

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    550

    600

    650

    700

    98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

    Jobadsperweek

    Seasona l ly Ad j us ted

    Trend

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    ACT

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1,000

    98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

    Joba

    dsperweek

    Seasona l ly Ad ju s ted Trend

    N or t he r n Te r r i t o r y

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

    Jobadsperweek

    Seasona l ly Ad ju s ted

    Trend

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    T ab le 2 : Ave rage num ber o f new spaper j ob adve r t i semen t s pe r w eek Aus t ra l i a

    Or i gi n al Se as on a ll y a d j us t ed ( a ) T re nd e st i m a t e ( b )

    Nu m b er N um b er Mo nt h Year ( c) Nu m be r Mo nt h Yea r

    2 0 0 7 - 0 8 19,283 -3.7

    2 0 0 8 - 0 9 11,187 -42.6

    2 0 0 9 - 1 0 9,117 -17.3

    2 0 1 0 - 1 1 9,203 0.4

    2 0 1 1 - 1 2 7,724 -16.1

    Dec 201 0 5,855 8,962 -5.5 -9.1 9,298 -0.5 -0.7

    Jan 201 1 7,830 9,066 1.2 5.8 9,262 -0.4 -2.2

    Feb 201 1 10,620 9,427 4.0 -3.8 9,211 -0.6 -3.2

    M ar 2011 9,807 9,362 -0.7 -4.6 9,113 -1.1 -4.2

    A p r 2 0 1 1 7,922 8,960 -4.3 -6.8 8,957 -1.7 -5.6

    M ay 2011 8,780 8,691 -3.0 -4.0 8,750 -2.3 -7.5

    Jun 201 1 7,887 8,424 -3.1 -10.7 8,514 -2.7 -10.0

    Ju l 201 1 8,318 8,297 -1.5 -12.8 8,299 -2.5 -12.3

    Aug 2011 8,763 8,075 -2.7 -15.7 8,163 -1.6 -13.6

    Sep 20 11 9,329 8,125 0.6 -12.8 8,099 -0.8 -14.3

    O ct 20 11 9,037 7,991 -1.7 -16.6 8,055 -0.5 -14.4

    N ov 2011 8,661 7,979 -0.1 -15.8 7,991 -0.8 -14.5

    Dec 201 1 4,853 8,096 1.5 -9.7 7,892 -1.2 -15.1Jan 201 2 7,547 7,936 -2.0 -12.5 7,758 -1.7 -16.2

    Feb 201 2 8,256 7,319 -7.8 -22.4 7,602 -2.0 -17.5

    M ar 2012 7,646 7,304 -0.2 -22.0 7,432 -2.2 -18.5

    A p r 2 0 1 2 6,525 7,358 0.7 -17.9 7,265 -2.2 -18.9

    M ay 2012 7,240 7,178 -2.4 -17.4 7,085 -2.5 -19.0

    Jun 201 2 6,510 6,944 -3.3 -17.6 6,885 -2.8 -19.1

    Ju l 201 2 6,718 6,687 -3.7 -19.4 6,642 -3.5 -20.0

    Aug 2012 6,810 6,281 -6.1 -22.2 6,368 -4.1 -22.0

    Sep 20 12 6,949 6,075 -3.3 -25.2 6,094 -4.3 -24.8

    O ct 20 12 6,600 5,845 -3.8 -26.8 5,862 -3.8 -27.2

    N ov 2012 6,069 5,578 -4.6 -30.1 5,663 -3.4 -29.1

    Dec 201 2 3,384 5,553 -0.4 -31.4 5,511 -2.7 -30.2

    Per cen t change Per cen t change

    (a) Concurrent seasonal adjustment method (see Technical Appendix for further details).

    (b) The trend estimates have been derived by applying a 13-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjustedseries. While this smoothing technique enables estimates to be produced for the latest month, it does result in revisions to themost recent six months as additional observations become available.(c) Annual changes are on a year average basis.

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    T ab le 3 : Ave rage number o f new spaper j ob adve r t i semen t s pe r w eek - S t a t es and T e r r i t o r i es

    Or i gi n al Se aso n al ly a dj u st e d Tr en d e st i m a t e

    N um ber N um ber M on t h Yea r N um ber M on t h Yea r

    N ew Sou t h W a l es

    Ju l 201 2 2,121 2,036 -3.4 -15.4 2,015 -2.5 -15.8

    Aug 2012 2,092 1,916 -5.9 -17.5 1,924 -4.5 -17.7

    Sep 201 2 2,107 1,815 -5.3 -21.0 1,813 -5.8 -20.8

    Oct 201 2 1,974 1,718 -5.4 -23.2 1,709 -5.7 -23.8N ov 2012 1,686 1,550 -9.8 -30.1 1,613 -5.6 -26.4

    Dec 2012 906 1,518 -2.1 -27.9 1,534 -4.9 -28.2

    Vic to r ia

    Ju l 201 2 1,139 1,100 2.5 -28.5 1,058 -3.6 -33.0

    Aug 2012 1,079 1,008 -8.4 -33.7 1,021 -3.5 -32.6

    Sep 201 2 1,159 1,011 0.3 -31.2 984 -3.7 -32.9

    Oct 201 2 1,040 923 -8.7 -35.2 948 -3.6 -33.7

    N ov 2012 957 895 -3.0 -35.5 917 -3.4 -34.7

    Dec 2012 549 898 0.3 -35.4 890 -2.9 -35.2

    Queens land

    Ju l 201 2 687 688 -2.1 -4.4 673 -3.8 -7.7

    Aug 2012 701 637 -7.3 -9.7 649 -3.6 -11.7

    Sep 201 2 722 607 -4.8 -20.3 627 -3.3 -17.4

    Oct 201 2 711 608 0.2 -22.8 612 -2.4 -22.4

    N ov 2012 648 590 -2.9 -29.7 602 -1.7 -25.7

    Dec 2012 391 629 6.5 -24.7 598 -0.7 -26.9

    South Aus t ra l ia

    Ju l 201 2 579 593 -5.4 -18.2 594 -1.0 -17.3

    Aug 2012 609 578 -2.6 -18.0 579 -2.5 -17.8

    Sep 201 2 608 562 -2.7 -18.5 560 -3.4 -18.5

    Oct 201 2 590 530 -5.8 -21.4 540 -3.6 -18.7

    N ov 2012 611 530 0.1 -15.3 521 -3.5 -18.7Dec 2012 298 487 -8.2 -21.5 504 -3.3 -18.7

    Per cen t change Per cen t change

    The above data are based on information provided by the following newspapers: The Sydney Morning Herald andThe Daily Telegraph (NSW); The Age and The Herald-Sun (Victoria); The Courier-Mail (Queensland); and TheAdvertiser (South Australia).

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    Average numb er o f new spape r j ob adve r t i sem en t s pe r w eek - St a t es and Te r r i t o r i es Or i gi n al Se aso n al ly a d j ust e d Tr en d e st i m a t e

    N um ber N um ber M on t h Yea r N um ber M on t h Yea r

    Wes tern Aus t ra l ia

    Ju l 2012 1,289 1,359 -1.5 -20.3 1,339 -5.6 -20.5

    Aug 2012 1,396 1,300 -4.4 -19.1 1,263 -5.7 -25.5

    Sep 201 2 1,336 1,173 -9.8 -34.0 1,189 -5.8 -30.9

    Oct 2 012 1,232 1,091 -7.0 -36.4 1,129 -5.1 -35.6

    N ov 2012 1,109 1,014 -7.1 -42.3 1,080 -4.3 -39.2Dec 2012 686 1,123 10.8 -39.7 1,047 -3.0 -41.1

    Tasman ia

    Ju l 2012 291 298 -4.1 -20.7 290 -4.6 -23.6

    Aug 2012 272 257 -13.8 -31.4 278 -4.1 -25.0

    Sep 201 2 296 268 4.2 -19.7 270 -3.1 -26.8

    Oct 2 012 284 252 -6.0 -34.6 265 -1.6 -28.1

    N ov 2012 308 274 8.8 -28.3 264 -0.5 -28.6

    Dec 2012 202 281 2.7 -23.8 266 0.7 -27.5

    ACT

    Ju l 2012 346 347 -2.4 -29.9 354 -2.1 -25.4

    Aug 2012 396 362 4.4 -21.1 343 -3.3 -25.3

    Sep 201 2 407 344 -5.0 -22.1 328 -4.4 -26.2

    Oct 2 012 317 298 -13.3 -29.3 312 -4.7 -27.5

    N ov 2012 306 286 -4.2 -31.3 297 -4.8 -28.9

    Dec 2012 152 280 -1.9 -32.9 284 -4.4 -30.3

    N or t he r n T e r r i t o r y

    Ju l 2012 267 266 -31.3 -19.6 318 -5.8 -6.6

    Aug 2012 265 223 -16.2 -41.5 312 -1.8 -10.8

    Sep 201 2 315 296 32.7 -17.4 324 4.0 -10.6

    Oct 2 012 452 426 44.0 23.9 347 6.9 -7.4

    N ov 2012 446 439 3.0 23.4 370 6.7 -3.6

    Dec 2012 199 337 -23.1 -31.8 388 4.9 -1.0

    Per cen t change Per cen t change

    The above data are based on information provided by the following newspapers: The West Australian (WesternAustralia); The Mercury, The Examiner and The Advocate (Tasmania); The Canberra Times (Australian CapitalTerritory); and The NT News (Northern Territory).

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    T ab le 4 : Ave rage num ber o f i n t e rne t j ob adve r t i sem en t s pe r w eek Aus t ra l i a

    Or ig in al Se as on al ly a dj u st ed

    Nu m ber N um b er Mo nt h Year ( a) N um b er Mo nt h Yea r

    2 0 0 7 - 0 8 222,825 29.7

    2 0 0 8 - 0 9 168,016 -25.2

    2 0 0 9 - 1 0 130,086 -22.1

    2 0 1 0 - 1 1 165,216 27.2

    2 0 1 1 - 1 2 158,974 -4.0

    Dec 201 0 159,446 170,591 2.4 35.0 168,406 1.0 34.8

    Jan 201 1 136,440 169,599 -0.6 44.4 169,315 0.5 31.0

    Feb 201 1 167,873 166,927 -1.6 18.9 169,455 0.1 26.1

    M ar 2011 173,309 169,498 1.5 18.3 169,093 -0.2 21.0

    A p r 2 0 1 1 167,124 173,426 2.3 20.0 168,401 -0.4 16.2

    M ay 2011 163,541 160,790 -7.3 8.5 167,517 -0.5 12.2

    Jun 201 1 168,926 167,808 4.4 9.2 166,614 -0.5 8.9

    Ju l 201 1 169,538 167,088 -0.4 7.7 165,404 -0.7 6.1

    Aug 2011 172,466 164,144 -1.8 3.3 163,574 -1.1 3.0

    Sep 20 11 173,960 161,444 -1.6 -0.4 161,336 -1.4 -0.4

    O ct 20 11 169,921 159,816 -1.0 -2.3 159,169 -1.3 -3.3

    N ov 2011 164,337 158,360 -0.9 -4.9 157,534 -1.0 -5.5

    Dec 201 1 141,183 150,867 -4.7 -11.6 156,802 -0.5 -6.9

    Jan 201 2 125,955 156,668 3.8 -7.6 157,089 0.2 -7.2

    Feb 201 2 161,503 160,353 2.4 -3.9 157,737 0.4 -6.9

    M ar 2012 164,169 160,265 -0.1 -5.4 158,023 0.2 -6.5

    A p r 2 0 1 2 152,693 158,675 -1.0 -8.5 157,767 -0.2 -6.3

    M ay 2012 157,368 154,813 -2.4 -3.7 156,594 -0.7 -6.5

    Jun 201 2 154,592 153,586 -0.8 -8.5 154,321 -1.5 -7.4

    Ju l 201 2 154,720 152,608 -0.6 -8.7 151,179 -2.0 -8.6

    Aug 2012 156,646 149,010 -2.4 -9.2 147,221 -2.6 -10.0

    Sep 20 12 154,412 143,316 -3.8 -11.2 142,696 -3.1 -11.6

    O ct 20 12 145,165 136,754 -4.6 -14.4 138,186 -3.2 -13.2

    N ov 2012 138,171 132,991 -2.8 -16.0 133,895 -3.1 -15.0

    Dec 201 2 119,643 127,799 -3.9 -15.3 130,122 -2.8 -17.0

    Per cen t change Per cen t change

    T r end est im a t e

    (a) Annual changes are on a year average basis.

    The internet series counts the average number of advertisements carried by each of the sites contributing to the series on the same

    day of each week in the month indicated. The day (which is not necessarily the same for each site) is selected by the site operator as

    broadly representative of its activity levels. The above data are based on information provided by the operators of the following sites:

    seek.com.au; and the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR) Australian JobSearch site,

    jobsearch.gov.au.

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    TECHNI CAL APPENDI X

    The ANZ Job Advertisements Series now uses a concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology to derive theseasonal adjustment factors. This means that data from the current month are used in estimating seasonal

    factors for the current and previous months. Concurrent seasonal adjustment replaced the forward factor

    methodology from the June 2010 reference month.

    The concurrent adjustment methodology uses the most recent data every month whereas the forward factorapproach only used it once a year. Under concurrent adjustment, the seasonal factors will also be more

    responsive to underlying dynamic changes than forward factors.

    Concurrent adjustment can result in revisions to the seasonal factors each month to estimates for earlierperiods. However, in most instances, the only noticeable revisions will be to the seasonal adjustment factors

    for the current month, the previous month and the same month a year ago.

    The concurrent seasonal adjustment brings the ANZ Job Advertisements Series in line with the methodology

    used by the ABS for its monthly employment data.

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    ANZ RESEARCH

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