120329-Tedex Mexico Talk3

8/2/2019 120329-Tedex Mexico Talk3

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Why MexicoMatters

4 SimpleReasons to CareAbout HappensSouth of the

Border



Why We’re So Afraid of Mexico



Forecasts of State Failure2008 U.S. Joint Forces Command Report Places Mexico Alongside Pakistan

Mexico Sounds Like A Pretty ScaryPlace

“

In terms of worst-casescenarios for the Joint Force

and indeed the world, two largeand important states bear

consideration for a rapid andsudden collapse : Pakistanand Mexico

”

—U.S. JointForces Command

2008 Report



Fears of Insurgencydata show homicides per 100,000 inhabitants circa 2007-2008

How Bad Is Mexico’

s SecuritySituation?

Drug traffickingOrganizations

“

are morphinginto or making common cause

with what we would consider aninsurgency

”

. Mexico is“

lookingmore and more like Colombia

looked 20 years ago.”

—CFR, 9.9.10



FSI Ranks Mexico 94 th of 177 Countries in2011SCALE OF 1-120 USING 12 SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARYINDICATORS

Is Mexico A “Failed” State?

Mexico: 75.1

Chad:

113.4

USA: 34.8

Somalia:113.4

Sudan:108.7SOURCE: FUND FOR PEACE (CONFLICT ASSESMENT SYSTEM



By MiMundo.orgJames Rodríguez

The Chiapas Uprising (1994-present)

Mexico Has Had Some Notable ViolentUprisings

Is Mexico Having An Insurgency?

But Organized Crime Groups Are Fighting Each Other, Not Directly Targetingthe State

he Mexican Revolution (1910-1921)

The Wars for Independence (1810-1821)

The Spanish Conquest (1519-1521)



Official Tally: 16,414 Killings (Jan-Sept 2011)SINCE 2007 TBI HAS MONITORED DRUG RELATED KILLINGS USINGVARIOUS SOURCES

Mexico’s Drug Violence

0

2,000

4,000

6,0008,000

10,000

12,000

14,00016,000

18,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

D r u g - r e

l a t e

d h o m

i c i d e s

CNDH Reforma PGR

Projected Official Increase of 1,527 Killings for 2011

(Approximately 7%)



Mexico ’s Murder Rate: Average for theAmericasUNODC Data From 2010 Place Mexico 19

th

in the Americas & 41st

World Wide

Contextualizing Homicide Rates inMexico

0102030

4050607080

90

H o n d u r a s

E l S a l v a

d o r

V e n e z u e

l a

B e

l i z e

G u a

t e m a

l a

T r i n

i d a d -

T o

b .

C o l o m

b i a

B a

h a m a s

P u e r t o

R i c o

S a

i n t L

u c

i a

D o m

i n i c a n

R e p .

B

r a z

i l

D o m

i n i c a

S t . V i n c e n

t

P a n a m a

E q .

G u i n e a

E c u a

d o r

M e

x i c o

F r e n c

h G u i a n a

S u r i n a m e

N i c a r a g u a

C a y m a n

I s l a n

d s

P a r a g u a y

C o s

t a R i c a

B o

l i v i a

B e r m

u d a

G u a

d e l o u p e

H a

i t i

A n

t i g u a - B

a r b .

U r u g u a y

A r g e n

t i n a

P e r u

U S A

C

u b a

M a r t i n

i q u e

C h i l e

C a n a

d a

Mexico: 18.1 Homicides Per 100K in 201

USA: 5 Homicides Per 100K in 200

Honduras: 82.1 Homicides Per 100K in 2010

http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/homicide.html

Venezuela: 49 Homicides Per 100K in 2009Guatemala & Belize: 41+ Homicides Per 100K in 2010

El Salvador: 66 Homicides Per 100K in 2009



4 Reasons to Care

About What Happens inMexico



Places



Why Mexico Matters: PlacesMexico is the primary destination and country of residence for U.S. citizens abroad



Why Mexico Matters: PlacesMexico has rich geographical, climate, and resource diversity

MEXICO:32 States

89 Cities Over200K2,438

Municipalities112,336,538

People#1 U.S. TravelDestination1 Million Ex-Pats20 MillionTourists




http://mexicotoday.org/article/copper- canyon’s -beautiful-landscapes-mexico

The Original Land of Enchantmen




http://www.sipse.com/imagenes/15102010/15102010154615583.j

A Place of Exotic Wonder




The Cradle of North AmericanCivilization




A Diverse Land with aProud History



Products



Why Mexico Matters: ProductsMexico is the world’s 13 th largest economy and a top U.S. trading partner

Over $460 billion in U.S.-Mexico Trade in 2011

Mexico isour #2

destinationfor exports,and #3

source ofimports



Why Mexico Matters: ProductsMexico is world’s 7 th largest oil producer and the third largest source for the United States

0500

1000

150020002500

U.S. Imports of Crude Oil ByCountry

(By 1000s of Barrels Per Day)



Pesos



Why Mexico Matters: PesosMexico is home to the world’s richest man and a major source of investment in the United

States

Home to world’s richestman

[Over $540 million inMexican investments in

the United States in2009]



Why Mexico Matters: PesosProducts we consume every day are Mexican owned



People



Why Mexico Matters: PeopleMexico was home to the most advanced native civilizations in North America

Mexico’s Past

A Diverse People witha Proud History



Why Mexico Matters: PeopleMexico today is home to rich, colorful, and diverse cultures

Mexico’s Prese



Why Mexico Matters: PeopleMexico is the primary source country for both legal and undocumented

immi rants

Our Present



Why Mexico Matters: PeopleLargest growing heritage group in the United States

Our Future



David A. [email protected]

www sandiego edu/tbi

Documents

120329-Tedex Mexico Talk3