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PAG EOP H, Vol. 119 (1980/81), Birkhiiuser Verlag, B as e l 0033-4553/81/03062 8-12501.50+0 .20/0

9 1981 Birkhiiuser Verlag, Basel

Some A spec t s of the Cold , Dis turbed C l imate of Rece nt Cen tur ies ,

the L i t tl e Ice Age , and S imi la r Occ ur rences

b y H U BE R T H . LAMB

T o r B e r g e r o n , b y w r i ti n g a s h o r t p a p e r o n t h e l eg e n d o f t h e

Fimbulv in ter

(1956) ,

r e v e a l ed t h a t a m o n g h i s m a n y - s i d e d i n t e re s ts w a s t h e p a s t b e h a v i o u r o f t h e c l i m a t e , a n d

i ts p o s s ib l e i m p a c t s o n h u m a n h i s t o ry . T h e c r i t ic a l a s p e c t s o f t h e l eg e n d w e r e q u o t e d

f r o m S n o r r e S t u r lu s o n i n G y l f a g i n n i n g i n th e E d d a "

. .. dd kom m er den v in ter som ka l las f irnbulvin tern . D d dr iver sn6n f rd n a lla

vdders treck , de te r s t rdng ky la och b i tande r ind . So len f6 rm dr intet . T re sddana

v in t rar f6 l j e r pd varandra och de t dr ingen so m ma r emel lan . . .

( ' . . . t h e n c o m e s t h e w i n t e r t h a t i s c a l l e d t h e F i m b u l w i n t e r . T h e n t h e s n o w d r i v e s

f r o m e v e r y q u a r t e r . T h e c o l d i s s e v e r e a n d t h e w i n d s b i t i n g . T h e s u n i s p o w e r l e s s

a g a i n s t i t. T h r e e w i n t e r s li k e t h i s f o l l o w o n e a f t e r t h e o t h e r a n d t h e r e i s n o s u m m e r

in b e t w e e n . . . ' )

T h e q u o t a t i o n g o e s o n t o d e s c r i b e t h e w a r s a n d i n d i v i d u a l s t r i f e t h a t e n s u e d .

B e r g e r o n a n d h i s c o - a u t h o r s s u g g e s t t h a t t h is l e g e n d mi g h t w e l l b e a l o n g - s u r v i v i n g

f o lk m e m o r y i n th e n o r t h e r n c o u n t r ie s a b o u t t h e o n s e t o f t h e c o l d e r c l im a t e , o f w h i c h

t h e r e i s m u c h ' f o s s il ' e v i d e n c e ( f r o m g l a c ia l a d v a n c e s t h a t l e ft o l d m o r a i n e s , f r o m p o l l e n

a n a l y s i s , e t c . ) , d u r i n g t h e l a s t mi l l e n n i u m b e f o r e C h r i s t . T h e r e c a n b e l i t t l e d o u b t t h a t i t

r e p o r t s - w i t h s o m e , d o u b t l e ss r o u g h , a p p r o a c h t o a c c u r a c y - a r e a l o c c u r r e n c e a t

s o m e t i m e i n t h e p a s t o f a n u n b r o k e n r u n o f a b o u t t h r e e b a d y e a r s w i t h s e v e r e w i n t e r s

a n d p o o r s u m m e r s , w h i c h h a d v e r y d i re e f fe c t s o n a n e a r l y p o p u l a t i o n i n S c a n d i n a v i a

a n d s e v e r e ly s h o c k e d t h e i m a g i n a t i o n o f th e p e o p l e , b e c a u s e t h e i r p r e v i o u s e x p e r i e n c e

h a d n o t s u g g e s t e d t h a t s u c h a s e q u e n c e w a s p o s s ib l e .

T h i s s e e m s to b e a n e a r l y e x a m p l e o f a p h e n o m e n o n w h i c h h a s b e g u n to a t t ra c t

s o m e a t t e n ti o n i n t h e i n v e s ti g a ti o n o f t h e c l im a t i c r e c o r d o f m o r e r e c e n t t i m e s . T h e

p h e n o m e n o n h a s b e e n c a l l e d ' c l u s te r i n g ' . I t r e f e rs t o t h e o c c u r r e n c e , i n r a t h e r c l o s e b u t

n o t n e c e s s a r i l y u n b r o k e n s u c c e ss i o n , o f g r o u p s o f y e a r s w i t h s o m e s p e c i fi c si m i l ar , b u t

o t h e r w i s e q u i t e u n u s u a l , c h a r a c t e r . A s h o r t l is t o f e x a m p l e s w il l s h o w w h a t i s m e a n t .

T h e l is t b e g i n s w i t h a c a s e t h a t i s sti ll w e ll r e m e m b e r e d b y m a n y p e o p l e n o w l iv i n g.

1) Em eritus Professor, University of East Anglia and founder of the Climatic Research Un it, Norwich

UK.

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Vot. 1I9, 1980/81 Disturbed Climate of Recent Centuries 6 29

Table 1

ome examples of the clustering of similar climatic events and related atmospheric circulation patterns

1. The three 'war winters', 1939-40, 1940-41 and 1941-42, with mean temperatures (December,

January and February) in central Europe (mean of De Bilt, Potsdam, Basle and Vienna) respectively

4.2 ~ 2.2 ~ and 3.4~ below the 200-year average (BAurt, 1950), causing freezing of the rivers all over

central and western Europe and accompanied by great snowstorms. Only two comparable winters,

1916-17 (-1.0 ~ and 1928-29 (-4.2~ had occurred since a group fifty years earlier in the 1890's.

2. A very similar cluster of three successive severe winters had affected particularly western Europe

in I878-79, 1879-80 and 1880-81, giving temperatures in central England of 3.0~ 1.2~ and 1.4~

respectively, below the 250-year average of 1701-1950 (MANLEY, 1974).

3. On a somewhat different time scale, the sequence of three 'skating Christmasses' in England with

very severe frosts beginning on, or just before, Christmas Day with a north European anticyclone

and easterly winds over the European plain in 1961, 1962 and 1963. In a moderated degree, with

snowy weather and/or a dry frost sufficient for skating between about 25 and 28 December, the

sequence was continued in 1964 and 1965. This sequence must be viewed against a background of only

seven to ten Christmasses in southern England during the first fifty years of the century which could

in any way (i.e. on the grounds of either white frost or snow cover) be classed as a 'white Christmas'.

4. A quite similar cluster of years, lasting from 1965 to 1971, in which northerly winds predominated

over the British Isles (30 of the days, whereas 10 were westerly) in the first pentad (5 days) of

January was a very marked feature at the time. No other run of years for which weather maps are

available has shown this feature or any approach to it. Over the 119 years from 1861, when the

British Isles daily weather map classificationbegins (LAMB, 1972a), to 1979 the predominant character

of the wind pattern over the same pentad was westerly (32 ); northerly situations amounted to only

7 . In a very different cluster of years, from 1921 to 1932 inclusive, westerly situations accounted

for 73 of the days during the first pentad of January.

When we switch our attention to evidence of clustering on longer time scales, at

some point we find ourselves considering what is ordinarily thought of as climatic

change and exama inin g the stability and homogen eity of each regime while it lasts. This

question is illustrated in the long recorded history of disastrous N ort h Sea storm floods

over the coastal lowlands bor dering that sea. The over-all frequency seems to have been

highest in and around the thirteenth century, when the sea level may have been a few

decimetres higher after some hund reds of years of warmer climate in man y parts of the

world, and melting glaciers. The reports also strongly suggest that storminess was

increasing in the North Sea, as the warm regime broke down farther north. But on the

coasts of the southernmost North Sea, in Flanders and the Netherlands, the peak

frequency of disastrous floods was in and around the sixteenth and seventeenth

centurie s (GoTTSCHALK, 1971, 1975, 1977): that is to say, in the cold climate (so-c alled

Little Ice Age) period, when the general sea level cannot have been high, and the

phen omen on must indicate more frequent and more severe storms in the southern part

of the North Sea than before and probably more northerly winds. By contrast, in the

twelfth, thirteenth an d four teenth centuries - and in the fifteenth centur y apart from a

break aro und 1400 to 1420 and the period after 1470 - the severe flooding incidents

were largely concen trate d farther north, on the coasts of Friesland, north -west

Germany and Denmark.

The N ort h Sea floods on the coasts of Engl and seem on the whole to have been less

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630 Hubert H. Lamb PAGEOPH,

severe than on the cont inenta l side, though in Englan d also land has been perm anen tly

lost and sometimes many people have perished. The frequency on the English North

Sea coast seems to show two peaks, in and around the thirteenth century and between

about 1530 and 1740. In the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries nearly all the serious

floods and losses of land reported relate to the coasts around the Humber in northern

England. (It is not clear whether this resulted from some particularly vulnerable

formation of the spit of land about Spurn Head and of the coastal dunes about that t ime

or perhaps represented some strongly repetitive concentration of the paths of the

storms.)

Clustering of years with exceptional blocking , and repla cement of the normally

prevailing westerlies by meridional situations (in slightly different positions in different

years) over Eur ope, can be detected in the occu rrence of the ten to fifteen mildest and

severest winters and warmest and coldest summers shown by the 300-year record of

temperatures observed in central England (MANLEY, 1974). The details are given in

Tables 2 and 3. Notice the cases of opposite extremes occurring within a few years of

Table 2

Mean temperatures over December, January and February o f the seven coldest and seven mildest winters

in central England between 1659 and 1979. Average winter 1850-1950:4.0 ~ C)

Winter 1683-84 1739-40 1962-63 1813-14 1794-95 1694-95 1878-79

~ -1 .2 -0 .4 -0.3 +0.4 +0.5 +0.7 +0.7

Winter 1868-69 1833-34 1974-75 1685-68 1795-96 1733-34 1934-35

~ 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1

The severest individual months are closely comparable: mean temperature (January in each case)

1684 and 1795 -3 .0 or -3.1 ~ 1814 -2 .9 ~ 1740 -2 .8 ~ 1963 -2 .1 ~ 1716 -2 .0 ~ Differences in the

effects of the winters concerned seem therefore to have had more to do with the length of the frost

period than with the temperature of the coldest month. Differences in the amounts of snow covering the

ground must also have been important.

Table 3

Mean temperatures over June, July and August o f the fourteen hottest and fifteen coldest

central England between 1659 and 1979. Average summer 1850-1950:15.2 ~C)

summers in

Summer 1826 1976 1846 1781 1911 1933 1947

~ 17.6 17.5 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0

Summer 1868 1899 1676 1975 1666 1719 1762

~ 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.7

Summer 1725 1695 1816 1860 1823 1674 1675

~ 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7

Summer 1694 1888 1922 1812 1862 1698 1890 1920

~ 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.0

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Vol. 119, 1980/81 Disturbed Climate of Recent Centuries 63 1

e a c h o t h e r , p a r t i c u l a r l y r e m a r k a b l e in t h e s u c c e s s iv e w i n t e r s 1 7 9 4 - 9 5 a n d 1 7 9 5 - 9 6

a n d t h e s u c c e s s iv e s u m m e r s o f 1 6 7 4 , 1 6 75 a n d 1 6 7 6.

A r e l a t e d a s p e c t is se e n b y c o m p a r i n g t h e lo n g r e c o r d s o f sn o w - c o v e r i n th e a r e a o f

Z t i r ic h a n d B e r n i n S w i t z e r l a n d ( P FI ST E R, 1 9 7 8 ) w i th t h e t e m p e r a t u r e s i n E n g l a n d . F o r

i n s t a n c e , t h o u g h t h e s e v e r e s t w i n t e r in th e 3 2 0 - y e a r t e m p e r a t u r e r e c o r d f o r c e n t r a l

E n g l a n d w a s 1 6 8 3 - 8 4 ( D J F M e a n - 1 . 2 ~ o r 4 .9 ~ b e l o w t h e 1 7 0 1 - 1 9 5 0 a v e ra g e ) ,

w h e n i ce b e lt s s e v e r al k i l o m e t r e s w i d e f o r m e d a l o n g b o t h s id e s o f th e N o r t h S e a a n d

E n g l i s h C h a n n e l , i n S w i t z e r l a n d th e n e x t w i n t e r, 1 6 8 4 - 8 5 , w h e n t h e s n o w l a y f o r 1 12

d a y s i n Z t ir i c h ( c o m p a r e 1 9 6 3 w i t h 8 6 d a y s , t h e lo n g e s t d u r a t i o n i n t h e la s t h u n d r e d

y e a r s ) w a s t h e m o r e o u t s t a n d i n g o n e o f t h e p a ir . T e n t a t i v e ' i s o b a r i c ' m a p s f o r th e

J a n u a r y s o f th e s e tw o w i n t e r s a r e s h o w n i n F i g s . 1 a n d 2 . (T h e a n a l y s e s o f t h e m o n t h l y

m a p s r e c o n s t r u c t e d f o r t h e J a n u a r y s a n d J u l y s o f t h e 1 6 8 0 's w e r e t e s te d b y o p e n i n g

p e r f o r m i n g a n a n a l y s i s o f t h e s a m e m o n t h s i n t h e 1 8 8 0 ' s f ir s t u s i n g o n l y t h e s a m e

a m o u r t a n d t y p e s o f i n f o r m a t io n a s in t h e 1 6 8 0 ' s , a n d t h e n c o m p a r i n g m a p s d r a w n

Figure 1

Tentative reconstruction of the circulation m ap (suggested sea level isobars) for the winter 1 683-84. N ote:

additional da ta used: monthly mean temperature for Janua ry in Central England - 3 ~ (7 ~ below the

modern average) and for the three winter months (December, Janu ary and Fe brua ry) --1.2 ~C (5.4 o below

the modern average). W ind direct ions observed in London during Janu ary 1684: E: 39 , NE : 26 , N:

3 , SE: 3 W : 29 . Fros t 29 days during Janu ary in London. Belts of ice some kilometres wide fringed

the Channel co asts of England and Fran ce and the coast of Holland. Traffic crossed the Zuyd er Zee on the

ice and also the sound between Copenhagen and M alta6 in S weden. Dublin, Ireland reported 'a m ost severe

frost '. N ote: The d ates on Figs. 1, 2 an d 4 have been corrected to the new style (modern) calendar.

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63 2 Hubert H. Lamb PAG EO PH,

Figure 2

Tentative reconstruction o f the circulation map (suggested sea level isobars) for the w inter 16 84-85. Note:

additional data u sed: monthly mean temperature for Jan uary in Central England +0.5 ~ (3.5 ~ below the

mod ern av erage) and for the w inter + 2.7 ~C (1.5 o below the m odern average). Wind directions observed in

London during January 16 85: W : 55 , NW : 16 , N: 13 NE ; 3 , E: 13 . Frost 23 days during

January in L ondon. The month of January in England was described as 'a t t imes as cold as any period in

the previous winter' with thick ice on the rivers in south an d n orth, but the s am e mon th also at times

brought rain an d storms o f wind.

f r o m a c t u a l p r e s s u r e d a t a .) T h e s e w i n t er s w e r e p r o b a b l y e q u a l le d o r e x c e e d ed , b y o n e

o t h e r c a s e e a rl ie r in t h e s a m e c e n t u r y : th is w a s i n 1 6 0 7 - 0 8 i n E n g l a n d a n d n o r t h - w e s t

E u r o p e , b u t 1 6 1 3 - 1 4 i n S w i t z e r la n d , w h e n t h e s n o w o n th e S w i ss p l a t e a u a b o u t B e r n

l a s t e d f o r m o r e t h a n 1 5 0 d a y s . T h e t h i r d o f t h e s n o w i e s t w i n t e r s i d e n t if ie d b y P F IS T E R i n

t h e S w i ss r e c o r d s w a s 1 7 8 4 - 8 5 , w i t h a g a in o v e r 1 5 0 d a y s o f s n o w - c o v e r n e a r B e r n ; b u t

i n E n g l a n d a n d n o r t h - w e s t E u r o p e t h i s w i n t e r , a l t h o u g h s e v e r e , w a s s u r p a s s e d b y

1 7 8 3 - 8 4 .

T h e s e c a s e s c a n b e e x p l a i n e d b y t h e d o m i n a n c e o f b l o c k i n g p a t t e r n s i n w h i c h t h e

p e r s i s t e n t c o l d a i r s u p p l y f r o m t h e n o r t h e n t e r e d E u r o p e i n a s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t l o n g i t u d e

i n n e i g h b o u r i n g , o r n e a r l y n e i g h b o u r i n g , y e a r s . A s l ig h t l y g r e a t e r s h if t o f a si m i l a r

m e r i d i o n a l w i n d f l o w p a t t e r n m i g h t b r i n g p r e d o m i n a n t l y s o u t h e r l y w i n d s i n s t e ad o f

n o r t h e r l y o r e a s t e rl y w i n d s i n a n y p a r t i c u l a r l o n g i t u d e i n n e i g h b o u r i n g y e a r s .

T h i s i s p r e s u m a b l y t h e e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e o c c u r r e n c e s , n o t i c e a b l e in T a b l e s 2 a n d 3 ,

o f o p p o s i t e e x t r e m e s w i t h in a fe w y e a r s o f e a c h o t h e r . O t h e r e x a m p l e s o f th i s a r e f o u n d

i n t h e 4 0 0 - y e a r l is t o f d a t e s o f o p e n i n g o f t h e B a l t i c p o r t o f R i g a s i n c e 1 5 3 5 (B ET IN a n d

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Vol. 119, 1980/81 Disturbed Climate of Recent Centuries 633

P RE OB AZ EN SK Y , 1 9 5 9 ) . T h e y ea r s w i th l eas t ice an d w i th m o s t i ce (1 6 5 2 an d 1 6 5 3 ,

o p e n i n g d a t e s 2 n d a n d 3 r d F e b r u a r y r e s p e c t i v e l y ; 1 6 5 9 , o p e n i n g d a t e 2 n d M a y ) a l l

o c c u r r e d w i t h in t h e s a m e d e c a d e . T h i s e x p e r i e n c e w a s p r e s u m a b l y p a r a l le l e d in r e c e n t

y e a r s b y t h e c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n t h e s e v e r e i c e - w i n t e r i n t h e B a l t i c i n 1 9 6 5 - 6 6 a n d

1 9 7 4 - 7 5 , w h e n t h e r e w a s a l m o s t n o ic e .

T h e a p p a r e n t i n c r e a s e , s i n c e a b o u t t h e 1 9 6 0 's i n th e v a r i a b il i ty f r o m y e a r t o y e a r

a n d f r o m o n e g r o u p o f a f e w y e a r s t o t h e n e x t , a n d i n t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f m a n y k i nd s o f

c l i m a t i c e x t r e m e s , h a s a t t r a c t e d n o t i c e in m o s t p a r t s o f th e w o r l d . T h i s i s i l lu s t r a te d h e r e

( F ig . 3 ) b y t h e d i s t r ib u t i o n b y d e c a d e s o v e r t h e l a s t h u n d r e d y e a r s o f m o n t h l y r a i n fa l l

O B S E R V A T I O N S O F M O N T H L Y R A I N F A L L S IN T H E E X T R E M E

T O P A N D B O T T O M ) Q U I N T I L E S

+

3 6 0 0 - - - - ~

3500

3 4 0 0

I

Z 3300

+ 8 5 + + |

r

I

N Hemisphere

Figure 3

Distribution by decades from 1880 to 1977 of the numbers of reports of 'extreme' monthly precipitation

totals, i.e. months falling within either the driest or the wettest 20 of all occasions. The network of 73

stations used was well scattered over the northern hemisphere.

m e a s u r e m e n t s i n t h e e x t r e m e q ui n ti le s ( h ig h e s t a n d l o w e s t 2 0 o f a ll o c c u r r e n c e s ) a t a

n e t w o r k o f o v e r s e v e n t y s t a t i o n s w e l l s c a t t e r e d o v e r t h e n o r t h e r n h e m i s p h e r e . T h e

f r e q u e n c y o f v e r y w e t a n d v e r y d r y m o n t h s h a s b e e n h i g h e s t i n t h e l a t e r n i n e t e e n t h

c e n t u r y a n d s i n ce 1 9 60 . I t w a s p r o b a b l y W A L L ~N w h o f i rs t p o i n t e d o u t ( 1 9 5 3 ) t h a t t h e

s t a n d a r d d e v i at io n s o f t h e s e a s o n a l m e a n s s h o w n b y t h e l on g r e c o r d s o f te m p e r a t u r e i n

E u r o p e h a d v a r i e d . I n p a r t i c u l a r, t h e v a r i a n c e o f s u m m e r t e m p e r a t u r e s i n t h e

o v e r - 2 0 0 - y e a r - l o n g r e c o r d f o r S t o c k h o l m h a d b e e n g r e a t e s t i n p e r i o d s w i t h f r e q u e n t

o c c u r r e n c e o f m e r i d i o n a l c i r c u l a t i o n p a t te r n s : t h e f i gu r e s w e r e 1 .2 5 o C f o r 1 7 7 0 - 8 9 a n d

1 . 2 3 ~ f o r 1 9 2 8 - 4 7 ( th e l a t e s t y e a r s c o v e r e d ) a g a i n s t 0 . 9 4 ~ f o r 1 9 0 6 - 2 5 .

C o r r e s p o n d i n g c h a n g e s a r e n o w k n o w n t o h a v e a f f ec t e d t h e w i n te r t e m p e r a tu r e s . F o r

e x a m p l e , t h e s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n o f w i n t e r t e m p e r a t u r e in c e n t r a l E n g l a n d f r o m y e a r t o

y e a r w a s 2 . 2 6 ~ f r o m 1 7 9 5 - 1 8 2 4 ( a p e a k pe r io d ) a n d a g a i n f r o m 1 8 7 9 - 9 8 , a n d h a s

re tu rn ed to a s im i la r lev e l f ro m 1 9 3 8 , w h e reas f r o m 1 9 0 6 to 1 9 3 5 i t w as o n ly 1 .4 5 ~

I t i s a r g u a b l e , i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h d i ff e r e n t i m p a c t s o f c l im a t e o n t h e b i o s p h e r e a n d

o n t h e h u m a n e c o n o m y , h o w f a r c h a n g e s o f c li m a te , s u c h a s t h a t w h i c h m a r k e d o u t t h e

s o - c a ll e d L i t tl e I c e A g e b e t w e e n a b o u t A . D . 1 5 5 0 a n d 1 8 5 0 a s d i f f e r e n t f r o m e a r l i e r a n d

l a t e r ti m e s , a r e b e s t c o n s i d e r e d i n t e r m s o f c h a n g e s o f th e m e a n v a l u e s o f t e m p e r a t u r e

a n d r a i nf a l l e t c . o r c h a n g e s i n th e f r e q u e n c y o f e x t r e m e s a n d c h a n g e s i n o t h e r m e a s u r e s

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o f v a r ia b i l it y f r o m y e a r t o y e a r . S o m e m e t e o r o l o g i s ts h a v e e v e n s u g g e s t e d t h a t t h e l a t te r

w a s t h e t r u e n a t u r e o f th e L i tt le I c e A g e r e g im e , s i nc e a s k e w n e s s o f t h e t e m p e r a t u r e

d i s tr i b ut i o n i n t h e c o l d e r m o n t h s o f t h e y e a r i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h g r e a t e r d e v ia t i o n s f r o m

t h e l o n g - t e r m m e a n i n t h e c a s e o f t h e c o l d e x tr e m e s .

T h e s e v er e st s h o c k s t o t h e h u m a n e c o n o m y c o m e , o f c o u r se , w h e n t w o , th r e e o r

m o r e y e a r s t e n d i n g t o t h e s a m e e x t r e m e o c c u r i n s u c c e s s i o n . A p r i m e e x a m p l e i s

p r o v i d e d b y t h e h i s t o r y o f th e 1 6 9 0 s i n S c o t l a n d w h e n t h e g r a i n h a r v e s t f a il e d i n t h e

u p l a n d p a r i s h e s i n a ll p a r t s o f t h e c o u n t r y i n s e v e n y e a r s o u t o f e i g h t f r o m 1 6 9 3 - 1 7 0 0 .

T h e c r o p s , w e a r e t o l d , w e r e b l ig h t e d b y e a s t e r l y h a a r s , o r s e a m i s ts ; b y c o l d , su n l es s ,

d r e nc h in g s u m m e r s ; b y s t o r m s ; a n d b y e a r ly fr o s ts a n d d e e p s n o w i n a u t u m n

( GR AHAM, 1 8 9 9 ) ; a n d t h e d e a t h s f r o m f a mi n e e x c e e d e d t h o s e i n t h e g r e a t p l a g u e ( t h e

B l a c k D e a t h ) i n th e m i d d l e a g es . S u c h s e q u e n c e s o f y e a r s m u s t a l s o b e i m p o r t a n t i n

c o n n e c t i o n w i t h g l a c ie r a d v a n c e s . I t h a s b e e n n o t i c e d t h a t a v a i l a b l e a c c o u n t s f r o m t h e

p e r i o d o f t h e L i tt le I c e A g e s e e m t o i m p l y t h a t m o s t o f t h e a d v a n c e s o f g l a c ie r s n o u ts

t o o k p l a c e i n j u s t t w o , o r t h r e e o r f o u r , d i s a s t r o u s p e r i o d s o f 1 0 t o 1 5 y e a r s . A n d B R AY

( 1 9 7 1 ) s i m i l a r l y f i n d s f r o m f o s s i l e v i d e n c e i n n o r t h - w e s t e r n N o r t h A m e r i c a t h a t o v e r

h a l f t h e g l ac i e r a d v a n c e s b e t w e e n 1 5 8 0 a n d 1 9 0 0 w e r e c o n c e n t r a t e d i n t h e y e a r s

1 7 1 1 - 2 4 a n d 1 8 3 5 - 4 9 .

D r O . L i e s to l o f t h e N o r w e g i a n P o l a r I n s t it u t e h a s s u g g e s t e d t o m e t h a t s u c h

s e q u e n c e s o f j u s t a f e w y e a r s o f c o l d s u m m e r s a n d s e v e r e w i n t e rs m a y h a v e b e e n

s u f f i c i e n t t o e s t a b l i s h a l o n g - l a s t i n g i c e - c o v e r o n s o me s ma l l , h i g h - l e v e l l a k e s , o r t a r n s ,

i n t h e S c o t t i s h H i g h l a n d s w h e r e s u c h w a s o b s e r v e d b u t t h e w a t e r t e m p e r a t u r e

n o w a d a y s i s a s h i g h a s 8 - 1 0 ~ e v e n i n a c o l d e r t h a n a v e r a g e s u m m e r ( a s i n 1 9 78 ). T h e

p r o c e s s p r o p o s e d d e p e n d s o n a b n o r m a l l y g r e at a m o u n t s o f s n o w b e i n g bl o w n i n to t h e

w a t e r i n a c o l d s p r i n g a n d f a i l in g t o me l t d u r i n g a n e n s u i n g c o o l , c l o u d y s u m m e r . I f t h e

f o ll o w i ng w i n te r w e r e s e v e r e , a th i c k n e s s o f ic e m i g h t b e f o r m e d w h i c h c o u l d n o t b e

e n t ir e ly m e l t e d u n ti l o n e o r m o r e w a r m e r t h a n a v e r a g e s u m m e r s r e tu r n e d . ( T h is p r o c e s s

h a s b e e n o b s e r v e d in w a t e r s o n t h e H a r d a n g e r v i d d a ( p l a te a u ) i n N o r w a y . )

W e k n o w f r o m t h e a c t u a l th e r m o m e t e r r e c o rd s i n E n g l a n d th a t f r o m s p r in g 1 6 90 t o

a u t u m n 1 6 95 i n c lu s iv e t h e r e w a s a n u n b r o k e n s e q u e n c e in w h i c h e v e r y s e a s o n o f e v e r y

y e a r w a s c o l d e r t h a n t h e 1 7 0 1 - 1 9 5 0 a v e r a g e . I n d e e d , t h e s e q u e n c e la s t e d w i t h o n l y f e w

b r e a k s f r o m a b o u t 1 6 8 0 - 1 7 0 0 . D e s c r i p t i v e a c c o u n t s o f t h e s e a s o n s s u g g e st t h a t th e r e

w e r e s o m e p a r t l y s i m i la r e x p e ri e n c e s in th e 1 6 5 0 s a n d i n t h e e a r l y y e a r s o f t h e c e n t u r y

b e f o r e 1 6 2 0 ; t h e p e r i o d p r o b a b l y e x t e n d e d b a c k i n t o t h e p r e v i o u s c e n t u r y . M o r e o v e r ,

t h e r e a r e s t r o n g i n d ic a t i o n s f r o m t h e r e p o r t s o f s e a ic e a b o u t I c e l a n d ( K o c H , 1 9 4 5 ) a n d

o f t h e c o d f is h er ie s in t h e n o r t h e r n s e a s th a t p o l a r w a t e r f r o m t h e E a s t G r e e n l a n d

c u r r e n t h a d b e e n s p r e a d i n g s o u t h a n d e a s t o v e r t h e o c e a n s u r f a c e f o r a l o n g t i m e , u n ti l

f r o m 1 6 7 5 - 1 7 0 4 t hi s w a t e r m a s s d o m i n a t e d th e o c e a n a s f a r so u t h a s t h e F a e r o e

I s l a n d s ( LAMn , 1 9 7 7 , 1 9 7 9 ). I n th e e x t r e m e y e a r , 1 6 9 5 , t h e wa r m , s a li n e N o r t h A t l a n t i c

D r i f t w a t e r ( a n d i t s f i s h s t o c k s ) s e e m s t o h a v e d i s a p p e a r e d f r o m t h e s e a s u r f a c e a s f a r

e a s t a s t h e e n ti r e c o a s t o f N o r w a y a n d a l m o s t a s f a r s o u t h a s S h e t la n d . W i t h a n o c e a n

s u r f a c e b e t w e e n I c e l a n d a n d 6 0 - 6 2 ~ t h e r e f o r e a s m u c h a s 5 ~ c o l d e r t h a n i n t h e

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Vol. 119, 1980/8l Disturbed Climate of Recen t Centuries 63 5

t w e n t i e t h c e n t u r y , p r e v a i l i n g a i r t e m p e r a t u r e s i n n o r t h e r n S c o t l a n d a n d m u c h o f

N o r w a y m u s t h a v e b e e n l o w e r e d s i g n if i c an t ly m o r e t h a n i n E n g l a n d , w h e r e t h e a v e r a g e

f o r t h e 1 6 9 0 s w a s 0 . 8 - 1 . 0 ~ l o w e r t h a n t h e t w e n ti e th c e n t u r y m e a n .

T h e r e e x is t m a n y r e p o r t s o f p e r m a n e n t s n o w o n t h e t op s o f t h e h ig h e st m o u n t a i n s i n

S c o t l a n d i n t h o s e t i m e s a n d o n e o r t w o o f s m a ll , h ig h - le v e l l a k e s o n w h i c h t h e r e w a s

a lw a y s i ce , ev e n in th e h o t t e s t su m m er ( e .g . MA C K EN Z V , 1 6 7 5 ) . T h e se seem to r eq u i re

m e a n t e m p e r a t u r e s a s m u c h a s 2 . 5 ~ b e l o w m o d e r n e x p e r ie n c e . T h i s f i gu r e s e e m s w e l l

p o s s i b l e g i v e n t h e a n o m a l y d e s c r i b e d i n t h e o c e a n o n l y 5 0 0 - 8 0 0 k m f a r t h e r n o r t h .

L ies to l s su g g e s t io n in d ica t es th a t i n su ch a c l ima te , o r o n e ap p ro ac h in g i t, j u s t a f ew

c o l d e r y e a r s i n u n b r o k e n s u c c e s s i o n c o u l d e s ta b l i sh a c a k e o f i c e , p e r h a p s 5 0 c m o r

m o r e i n t h i c k n e s s , o n t h e s u r f a c e o f s o m e s m a l l w a t e r b o d i e s a b o v e a b o u t 7 0 0 m a b o v e

s e a l e v e l w h i c h , p r o t e c t e d b y i t s o w n h i g h a l b e d o , c o u l d p e r s i s t f o r s e v e r a l y e a r s a n d

p e r h a p s f o r m a n y y e a r s .

T h e c l u s te r i n g o f r e c u r r e n c e s o f s im i l a r w e a t h e r p a t t e r n s a n d s im i l ar t im i n g o f

s e a s o n a l a t m o s p h e r i c c i r c u l a t io n d e v e l o p m e n t s in s u c c e s s i ve , o r c l o s e l y f o ll o w i n g y e a r s ,

a s i n t h e e x a m p l e s m e n t i o n e d i n t h is a r ti c le , m u s t r e s u l t f r o m t h e p e r s i s t e n c e o f s o m e

e leme n t s o f t h e s i tu a t io n w h ich in m o s t ca ses h av e n o t so f a r b een id en t if i ed. I t s eems

o b v i o u s , h o w e v e r , t h a t t h e g r e a t e x t e n s i o n o f t h e p o l a r w a t e r o n t h e o c e a n s u r f a c e t o a

l a t it u d e n e a r 6 0 ~ c l o s e t o E u r o p e i n t h e l a t e s e v e n t e e n t h c e n t u r y m u s t h a v e p l a y e d a n

i m p o r t a n t p a r t i n t h e s e q u e n c e o f c o ld y e a r s i n a n d a r o u n d t h e 1 6 9 0 s . T h i s c a m e t o

l ig h t a s a r e s u l t o f a t te m p t s t o m a p t h e s e a s u r f a c e t e m p e r a t u r e s a s f a r b a c k i n t o t h e

L i t t l e I ce A g e as p o ss ib le . Ma p p in g o f t h e w in d s an d w ea th e r sy s t em s , a s w e l l a s

r e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e o c e a n c u r r e n t c o n d i t i o n s , m a y b e e x p e c t e d t o t h r o w f u r t h e r l ig h t

o n t h e p h e n o m e n a d i s c u s s e d h e r e.

B y a f o r t u n a t e c i r c u m s t a n c e i t h a s p r o v e d p o s si b le t o p r o d u c e a s e r ie s o f s y n o p t i c

w e a t h e r m a p s o f 6 0 in d i v id u a l d a y s b e t w e e n M a y a n d O c t o b e r 1 5 8 8 l a rg e l y f r o m t h e

w e a t h e r r e p o r t s o f sh i ps o f th e S p a n i s h A r m a d a , w h i c h s a i le d a g a i n st E n g l a n d i n t h a t

y e a r a n d w a s p a r t l y d r i v e n b y s t o r m s , a n d p a r t l y s a i l e d t o e s c a p e t h e m , o v e r c o u r s e s

r i g h t a r o u n d t h e B r i t i s h I s l e s a n d a t o n e s t a g e i n t o t h e n o r t h e r n A t l a n t i c t o w a r d s

I c e l a n d . A h i s t o ri a n , M r K . S . D o u g l a s o f B e l f a st , h a d c o l l e c te d t h e s h i ps w e a t h e r

r e p o r t s a n d s u p p l e m e n t e d t h e m b y s u c h r e p o r t s a s w e r e a v a i l a b l e o n l a n d f r o m t h e

d o c u m e n t e d h i s t o r y o f t h e o c c a s i o n . H e p r o c e e d e d , w i t h th e h e lp o f m e t e o r o l o g i s t s

w o r k i n g i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d , t o p r o d u c e a s e r i es o f w e a t h e r m a p s . L u c k i l y t h e

p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e w o r k u p t o t h is s t a g e d i d n o t k n o w t h a t t h e a s t r o n o m e r T y c h o B r a h e

w a s m a k i n g a n d r e c o r d i n g d a i l y w e a t h e r o b s e r v a t i o n s o n t h e t h e n D a n i s h i s l a n d o f

H v e n ( n o w V e n , 5 5 ~ 1 2 ~ i n 1 5 8 8. I t w a s t h e r e f o r e p o s s ib l e t o t e s t t h e

p r e l i m i n a r y i s o b a r i c a n a l y s is o f t h e d a i l y w e a t h e r m a p s b y t h e i r s u c c e s s o r l a c k o f

s u c c e s s i n a c c o u n t i n g f o r t h e w e a t h e r o b s e r v e d in t h e S o u n d be t w e e n D e n m a r k a n d

S w e d e n . ( T h i s w a s b e y o n d t h e e a s t e r n l im i t o f t h e a r e a w h i c h th e a n a l y s t s h a d i n t e n d e d

t o c o v e r , b u t t h e s u g g e s t e d i so b a r s c o m m o n l y d i d e x t e n d t o a b o u t t h a t p o i n t. T h e t e s t

w a s t h e r e f o r e a s e v e r e o n e .) T h e r e s u l t o f t h e t e s t w a s t h a t t h e w i n d d i r e c t io n a n d

w e a t h e r o b s e r v e d o v e r th e S o u n d w e r e u n q u e s t i o n a b l y in a g r e e m e n t w i th t h e m a p s o n

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