11

2

Recall from the Lecture on Epidemics and Substance

AbuseThe importance of road traffic collisions

determining the index of disabilty adjusted life years = years lost of life + years lived with disability

3Michaud CM, Murray CJL, Bloom BR. JAMA 2001; 285(5):535-539.

**

***

*

*

*

*

**

Estimated Leading Causes of Disability-Estimated Leading Causes of Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYS) in the U.S., Adjusted Life-Years (DALYS) in the U.S.,

19961996

4

Estimated Leading Causes of Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYS) in the U.S., 1996

Michaud CM, Murray CJL, Bloom BR. JAMA 2001; 285(5):535-539.

****

*

*

5

IssuesPrivate optima & social optima

Government Regulation Versus Market Solutions

Collision Statistics and Risk

Local Traffic: Volume, Collisions, and Congestion

Control of Driving Under the Influence, DUI

5

6

Part I: Private Optima Vs. Social Optima

The Value of Time and Speeding

6

7

Value of Time & Speeding

7

8

Distance = Rate*TimeD =100 miles Rate (speed) Time to travel

100 25 mph 4 hours

100 40 mph 2.5 hours

100 50 mph 2.0 hours

100 75 mph 1 hour 20 minutes

100 80 mph 1 hour 15 minutes

100 85 mph 1 hour 11 minutes

8

99

10

Time saved

Time for travel

10

1111

1212

13

Vehicle CostsVictoria Transport Policy

Institute

Fixed costs: $ 2884/360 = $8 per day

13

14

Fixed costs

14

15

Variable costs $0.14mile* 100 =

$14, corrected for inefficiency

15

1616

1717

18

Risk of fatality: 1.27 per 100 million miles traveled, or

1.27*10-6 *$1.4 Million or about $2, but U-shaped with speed

18

1919

20

Part II. Government Regulation

Versus the Private Marketself – insurance against risk of accidents

Civil Law-suit for damages

Government Requires Insurance of all Drivers Uninsured driver Moral hazard?

20

21

Part III: Risk of an Accident

Collision Statistics Number of collisions involving fatalities Number of Collisions Involving Injuries Number of Collisions Involving Only Property

Damage

Region US California Santa Barbara County Oxnard-Ventura

21

2222

2323

24

Why Did the Number of Fatal Crashes Start

Declining?Safer cars?

Seat belts Air bags

Safer Roads?

Safer Drivers?

24

2525

26

Risk Measures: Per Capita, Per VMT

26

27

Passenger car involvement down, light trucks &

motorcycles up

27

2828

29

California Trends

29

3030

31

32

33

Oxnard-Ventura 2010 Fatalities

33

34

Local Traffic & Traffic Measures

Traffic Volume or Counts

Traffic Collisions: Fatal, Injury, Property Damage Only

Traffic Congestion

34

35

Not Much Change in Traffic Volume

35

36

Traffic CollisionsSanta Barbara County , Total

36

37

Traffic CollisionsVentura County, Total

37

38

Traffic CollisionsSan Luis Obispo County,

Total

38

39

What is Going On In Ventura?

Traffic Congestion

39

40

Ventura CountyVehicle Miles Travelled,

VMT

40

41

Traffic Collisions Involving Injuries,

Traffic Congestion & Public Transportation

41

Positive?

42

Spurious Correlation? Difference

42

43

Traffic Collisions Involving Injuries,Traffic Congestion & Public

Transportation

43

Still +

44

Actual, Fitted & Residual

44

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

Residual Actual Fitted

45

Control Of DUI

History: Sweden Guiding Force: Temperance Movement in

Parliament

History: Great Britain Guiding Force: Physicians

History: US Guiding Force: MADD, SADD

History: CA

45

46

NHTSA

46

47

NHTSA

47

48

Holidays & DUI

48

49

Motor Vehicle Drivers in Fatal Collisions By Age, Under the Influence,

2009 CA

49

5050

60

80

100

120

140

160

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

ALCINVFATCOLL

Alcohol Involved Fatal Collisions, Jan 2005-Dec 2009

July Aug Aug

5151

5252

53

Intervention Analysis

If you know the date a law became effective then you can see if behavior changed after that date

Example: per se legislation setting a blood alcohol content, bac, of 0.08 was passed in the United Kingdom in October 1967

Monthly Data on the number of road fatalities and number seriously injured is available from January 1960 to December 1975

54

Road Fatalities and Seriously Injured

200

400

600

800

1,000

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974

KILL

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974

INJ

0

1

2

1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974

STEP

Road fatalities

Seriously Injured

Step Function

55

Regress Road Fatalities On seasonal Dummies and Step

Function

-46/608 = 7.6%

56

Regress SDKill = -87*sdstep + error

-200

-100

0

100

200

-400

-200

0

200

400

61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75

Residual Actual Fitted

-87/608 = -14%

57

5858

59

60

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

150 200 250 300 350 400 450

FATALCOLLISIONS

AL

CF

ATA

LC

OL

L

Alcohol Involved Crashes with Fatalities VS. Crashes Involving

Fatalities

61

The End