10th Russian Petroleum and Gas Congress Plenary Session 2

World Petroleum CouncilThe Global Forum for Oil and Gas

Science, Technology, Economics and Management

10th Russian Petroleum and Gas CongressPlenary Session 2

Global Energy Trends and Opportunities for Natural Gas

10th Russian Petroleum and Gas CongressPlenary Session 2

Global Energy Trends and Opportunities for Natural Gas

Renato T Bertani

June 2012

Renato T Bertani

June 2012



AlgeriaAngolaArgentinaAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBahrainBelgiumBrazilCanadaChinaColombiaCroatiaCubaCzechDenmarkEgyptFinlandFranceGabonGermanyHungaryIndia

IndonesiaIranIsraelJapanKazakhstan

KenyaKoreaKuwaitLibyaMacedonia

MexicoMoroccoMozambiqueNetherlandsNigeria

NorwayOmanPakistanPanamaPeru

PolandPortugalQatarRomaniaRussiaSaudi ArabiaSerbiaSierra LeoneSlovakiaSloveniaSouth AfricaSpainSurinameSwedenThailandTrinidad & TobagoTurkeyUKUruguayUSAVenezuelaVietnamMISSION

The mission of the World Petroleum Council is to promote the sustainable development, production and consumption of oil, gas and other energy resources for the benefit of mankind

Member CountriesMember Countries

WPC Member Countries


Science, Technology, Economics and ManagementOur ValuesOur Values

VALUESThe World Petroleum Council firmly believes that the activities of the petroleum industry must be predicated in certain fundamental values:

• Respect for the individuals and communities• Reliance on the highest technological solutions;• Highest business ethical and governance standards• Creation of value to all stakeholders.



The Challenge:Sustainable supply of the ever growing energy demand

The Challenge:Sustainable supply of the ever growing energy demand


Science, Technology, Economics and ManagementKey Drivers to Energy ConsumptionKey Drivers to Energy Consumption

Population GrowthPopulation Growth

HighMed

Low

19603 bn people

20509 bn people?



Current Energy Scenario

Total Energy Consumption

Current Energy Scenario

Total Energy Consumption

Canad

a

S Arab

ia US

S Korea

Russia

Japan

German

y

France UK

Spain Ira

nIta

lyChina

Mexico

Brazil

Indonesia

India0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Energy Consumption and PopulationSelected Countries (2010)

Ener

gy C

onsu

ption

(boe

/cap

)

Popu

latio

n (M

illio

n Pe

ople

)

World Average: 13.46 boe/cap/yrIncrease to bring CMBII to Spain level: 126 mmboe/day

Energy InclusionEnergy Inclusion



7

World Energy Demand GrowthWorld Energy Demand Growth

• Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) will continue to be the main sources of energy• Supply of renewable sources of energy will grow significantly, but still remain a complementary source of energy

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

0

30

60

90

120

World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type MMboe/day

LiquidsNatural GasCoalNuclearRenewables

Liquids: Conventional (oil, condensate, natural gas plant liquids, refinery gains) Non-Conventional (oil sands, extra heavy oil, biofuels, GTL, CTL)

Source: EIA OutlookIssue: October 2011



2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Natural Gas Consumptiontcf/year

Non OECDOECD AsiaOECD EuropeOECD Americas

Source: EIA , International Energy OutlookIssue: October 2011

World Gas ConsumptionWorld Gas Consumption



RussiaIran

QatarTurkmenistan

Saudi Arabia

US UAEVenezuela

Nigeria

Algeria

IraqIndonesia

Australia

ChinaMalaysia

EgyptNorway

Kazakhstan

Kuwait

Canada

Uzbekistan

LibyaIndia

RoW0

400

800

1200

1600

1581

1046

894

284283

273213

193187

159112

108103 99 85 78 72 65 63 61 55 55 51

489

World Gas Reserves (2010) -TCFSource: BP Statistical Review, 2011

• World Reserves: 6,608 tcf• R/P = 58.6 yrs• USA gas shale resources: 6,600 tcf

World Gas ReservesWorld Gas Reserves

• World resource base is expanding in view of new technologies and price deck




World Natural Gas SupplyWorld Natural Gas Supply

• Natural gas production grow will be mainly from the Middle East, Asia and Eurasia, with increasing contribution of non conventional sources

2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Natural Gas Productiontcf/year

RoW

Russia

OECD Non Conventional

OECD Conventional

0 5 10 15 20

Natural Gas Production Change2008-2035 tcf/year

• New production from unconventional, stranded gas, remote areas• Tendency to gas commoditization (LNG, GTL)• Regional pipelines constrained by costs, geopolitical uncertainty



11

Resource Base Shales• Source Rock is the same as the Reservoir• No secondary migration• Gas generation window• Fracturing and microfacturing

The promise of the unconventional natural gas resources

The promise of the unconventional natural gas resources



12

Investment decisions: challenges and pitfallsInvestment decisions: challenges and pitfalls

124,168 Wells


487,627 Wells

Global LNG Trade



13

MONEY$20 trillion until 2030IEA Energy Outlook

MONEY$20 trillion until 2030IEA Energy Outlook

MILLSIncreasing demand for

steel, rigs, supplies

MILLSIncreasing demand for

steel, rigs, supplies

MINDSRapidly aging HR base,

MINDSRapidly aging HR base,

Ingredients for SuccessIngredients for Success

The success of our industry as whole more than ever will require: • Investment in people and technology• Increasing cooperation and dialogue between stakeholders• Highest standards of Health, Safety and Environment• Social Responsibility and Ethics as part of the Business Model

Documents

10th Russian Petroleum and Gas Congress Plenary Session 2