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Page 1: 102)3$547698;:(

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Figure 2: SI versus S factors

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Figure 3: Seasonal Factors

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75 80 85 90 95 year40

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a) X12A: SA series

75 80 85 90 95 year40

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b) Seats: SA series

75 80 85 90 95 year40

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c) X12A: Trend−cycle

Figure 6: X12 ARIMA and TRAMO−SEATS

75 80 85 90 95 year40

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d) Seats: Trend−cycle

75 80 85 90 95 year80

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140e) X12A: Seasonal factors

75 80 85 90 95 year80

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140f) Seats: Seasonal factors

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105g) X12A: Irregular factors

75 80 85 90 95 year95

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105h) Seats: Irregular factors

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Series Model 2 trend−cycleX12 trend−cycle

Figure 7: Trend−Cycle comparison

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 year80

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75 80 85 90 95 year−2

0

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4a) TRAMO−SEATS (Modified HP filter)

Figure 8: Cycle Estimator

75 80 85 90 95 year−4

−2

0

2

4

6b) HP filter on X11−SA series

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Page 17: 102)3$547698;:(

Figure 9: Cycle Estimator for Last Years (with 6 Forecasts)

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 year−1.5

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Figure 11: Out−of−sample forecasts

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Figure 12: Routine procedure; parameter estimates

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