10/03/031. 2 An Overview of the Southern California Earthquake Center Thomas H. Jordan Director

10/03/03 1

Workshop on Implementation of SCEC Earthquake Hazard Research Results in Earthquake Engineering Research and Practice

8:00 Introductions

8:30 Discussion stimulated by brief plenary presentations on what are the key problems /issues/ needs/ opportunities at the interface between earthquake science and earthquake engineering, including information technology aspects: Speaker: Recorder: Geotechnical engineering, research and practice: Jon Bray Rob Wesson Structural engineering, research: Allin Cornell “ Structural engineering, practice: Craig Comartin “

10:30 Break

11:00 SCEC Presentations on existing joint research projects: Ongoing and Proposed Collaboration Paul Somerville “ OpenSHA (Open Seismic Hazard Analysis) Ned Field “

Noon: Lunch.

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1 pm: Issue 1: What are potential collaboration projects, including information technology; between SCEC

scientists and individuals involved primarily in: Moderators: Recorder: Room A: Ground motions and intensity measures Somerville / Whittaker Deier- lein Room B: Probabilistic seismic hazard Petersen / Elnashai Wesson

2:00 Break 2:30 Issue 2: What are potential interface strategies for organizing and funding collaboration? What

resources/mechanisms are needed? What opportunities exist for collaboration between SCEC scientists and individuals involved primarily in: Moderators: Recorder: Room A: Research Jordan / Roblee Nigbor Room B: Professional practice, public administration Savage / Rojahn Wesson

3:30 Break

4:00 Reporting on breakouts and discussion of next steps in plenary session.

5:00 Adjourn

An Overview of the Southern California Earthquake Center

Thomas H. JordanDirector

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Seismic Hazard in the United StatesU.S. Geological Survey

National Seismic Hazard Map

• Specifies maximum Specifies maximum intensity of shaking intensity of shaking expected at a site expected at a site during a fixed time during a fixed time intervalinterval

• High hazard is High hazard is concentrated along concentrated along the active plate the active plate boundary boundary

• Highest hazard is in Highest hazard is in Southern CaliforniaSouthern California

Peak ground acceleration with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 yearsPeak ground acceleration with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years

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Seismic Risk in the United States “HAZUS’99 Estimates of Annual Earthquake Losses for the

United States”, FEMA, September, 2000

• U.S. annualized U.S. annualized earthquake loss earthquake loss (AEL) is about (AEL) is about $4.4 billion/yr.$4.4 billion/yr.

• For 25 states, AEL For 25 states, AEL > $10 million/yr> $10 million/yr

• 49% of the total is 49% of the total is concentrated in concentrated in Southern CaliforniaSouthern California

• 25% is in Los 25% is in Los Angeles County Angeles County alonealone

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Structural fragility

Risk = Probable Loss (lives & dollars) =

Hazard Exposure Fragility

Extent & density of built environment

Faulting, shaking, landsliding, liquifaction

Risk Analysis: A System-Level Problem

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Southern California: a Natural Laboratory for Southern California: a Natural Laboratory for Understanding Seismic Hazard and Managing RiskUnderstanding Seismic Hazard and Managing Risk

• Tectonic diversityTectonic diversity

• Complex fault Complex fault networknetwork

• High seismic High seismic activityactivity

• Excellent geologicExcellent geologicexposureexposure

• Rich data sourcesRich data sources

• Large urban population Large urban population with densely built with densely built environment environment high risk high risk

• Extensive research program coordinated by Southern California Earthquake Center Extensive research program coordinated by Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) under NSF and USGS sponsorship(SCEC) under NSF and USGS sponsorship

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SCEC History• Founded in 1991 as NSF Science & Technology Center, jointly sponsored Founded in 1991 as NSF Science & Technology Center, jointly sponsored

by the USGSby the USGS– Motivation:Motivation: lack of effort on Southern California earthquake problem lack of effort on Southern California earthquake problem

– Goal:Goal: to develop a “master model” of earthquake hazards to develop a “master model” of earthquake hazards

• Organized through a series of focused studiesOrganized through a series of focused studies

– Phase IPhase I:: Future Seismic Hazards in Southern California, Implications of the Future Seismic Hazards in Southern California, Implications of the 1992 Landers Earthquake Sequence1992 Landers Earthquake Sequence

– Phase IIPhase II:: Seismic Hazards in Southern California: Probable Earthquakes, Seismic Hazards in Southern California: Probable Earthquakes, 1994 to 20241994 to 2024

– Phase IIIPhase III:: Accounting for Site Effects in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses Accounting for Site Effects in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses of Southern Californiaof Southern California

– Phase IVPhase IV:: Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models

• In 1998, unsuccessfully proposed to extend to California Earthquake In 1998, unsuccessfully proposed to extend to California Earthquake Research CenterResearch Center

• In 2002, “graduated” from STC Program and reconfigured at a free-In 2002, “graduated” from STC Program and reconfigured at a free-standing center under a 5-year NSF/USGS collaborative agreement standing center under a 5-year NSF/USGS collaborative agreement (SCEC2)(SCEC2)

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How Is SCEC2 Different?• Explicit mission to advance physics-based seismic hazard

analysis

• Broadened, more open collaboration

• Interdisciplinary focus groups for system-level integration and development of community models

• Emphasis on simulation and model-based inference

• Major effort to create a Community Modeling Environment (CME) based on advanced IT — the SCEC Collaboratory

• Enhanced Communication, Education, and Outreach (CEO) Program

• Explicit Implementation Interface for management of knowledge transfer and partnership efforts

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SCEC MissionSCEC Mission

• To gather all types of information about earthquakes To gather all types of information about earthquakes in Southern Californiain Southern California

• To integrate this information into a comprehensive, To integrate this information into a comprehensive, physics-based, predictive understanding of physics-based, predictive understanding of earthquake phenomenaearthquake phenomena

• To communicate this understanding to end-users To communicate this understanding to end-users and the people of Southern California as useful and the people of Southern California as useful knowledge for reducing earthquake risksknowledge for reducing earthquake risks

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The SCEC CollaborationThe SCEC Collaboration

• An open, but structured, collaboration An open, but structured, collaboration – Open to any individuals and institutions that seek to collaborate on the Open to any individuals and institutions that seek to collaborate on the

science of earthquakes in Southern Californiascience of earthquakes in Southern California– Structured to achieve specific objectives in Southern CaliforniaStructured to achieve specific objectives in Southern California– Resources are assigned based potential contributions to these Resources are assigned based potential contributions to these

objectivesobjectives

• An institution-based organizationAn institution-based organization– Core institutions provide major, sustained commitment to SCEC Core institutions provide major, sustained commitment to SCEC

objectivesobjectives– Participating institutions are nominated through participation of Participating institutions are nominated through participation of

individual scientistsindividual scientists

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SCEC InstitutionsSCEC InstitutionsCore Institutions (14)Core Institutions (14)

University of Southern California (lead)University of Southern California (lead) California Institute of TechnologyCalifornia Institute of TechnologyColumbia UniversityColumbia UniversityHarvard UniversityHarvard UniversityMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyMassachusetts Institute of TechnologySan Diego State UniversitySan Diego State UniversityStanford UniversityStanford UniversityU.S. Geological Survey, GoldenU.S. Geological Survey, GoldenU.S. Geological Survey, Menlo ParkU.S. Geological Survey, Menlo ParkU.S. Geological Survey, PasadenaU.S. Geological Survey, PasadenaUniversity of California, Los AngelesUniversity of California, Los AngelesUniversity of California, San DiegoUniversity of California, San DiegoUniversity of California, Santa BarbaraUniversity of California, Santa BarbaraUniversity of Nevada, RenoUniversity of Nevada, Reno

Participating Institutions (30)Participating Institutions (30)

Arizona State UniversityArizona State University; Boston University; Brown ; Boston University; Brown University; Cal-State, Fullerton; Cal-State, University; Cal-State, Fullerton; Cal-State, Northridge; Cal-State, San Bernardino; California Northridge; Cal-State, San Bernardino; California Geological Survey; Carnegie Mellon University; Geological Survey; Carnegie Mellon University; Central Washington University; CICESE; ETHZ; Jet Central Washington University; CICESE; ETHZ; Jet Propulsion Laboratory; Lawrence Livermore Propulsion Laboratory; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; Oregon State University; National Laboratory; Oregon State University; Pennsylvania State University; Rice University; Pennsylvania State University; Rice University; SUNY Stony Brook; Texas A&M University; SUNY Stony Brook; Texas A&M University; University of California, Berkeley; University of University of California, Berkeley; University of California, Davis; University of California, Irvine; California, Davis; University of California, Irvine; University of California, Riverside; University of University of California, Riverside; University of California, Santa Cruz; University of Colorado; California, Santa Cruz; University of Colorado; University of Massachusetts; University of New University of Massachusetts; University of New Mexico; University of Oregon; Utah State University; Mexico; University of Oregon; Utah State University; URS Corporation; Whittier College URS Corporation; Whittier College

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SCEC OrganizationChart

SCEC DirectorBoard of Directors

Science Planning Committee

ExternalAdvisory Council

CEO Planning Committee

FARMCommittee

GeologyCommittee

GeodesyCommittee

SeismologyCommittee

Fault SystemsFocus Group

SHAFocus Group

Ground MotionFocus Group

Eqk PhysicsFocus Group

Structural Rep.Focus Group

ImplementationInterface

Education

PublicOutreach

SCEC/ITR Project

SCIGNCoord. Com.

BorderlandsWorking Group

Special Projects& Operations

DisciplinaryCommittees Focus Groups

CEOActivities

DiversityTask Force

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Advisory CouncilSCEC Director

Board of Directors




FARMCommittee

GeologyCommittee

GeodesyCommittee

SeismologyCommittee


SHAFocus Group





Education

PublicOutreach

SCEC/ITR Project

SCIGNCoord. Com.


DiversityTask Force

Robert Smith (Chair/ U. Utah)Robert Smith (Chair/ U. Utah)

Jeff Freymueller (U. Alaska)Jeff Freymueller (U. Alaska)

Raul Madariaga (Ecole Normale Raul Madariaga (Ecole Normale Superieure)Superieure)

Jack Moehle (PEER)Jack Moehle (PEER)

Farzad Naeim (John A. Martin & Farzad Naeim (John A. Martin & Associates) Associates)

Garry Rogers (Geological Survey of Garry Rogers (Geological Survey of Canada)Canada)

Chris Rojahn (Applied Technology Chris Rojahn (Applied Technology Council)Council)

Haresh Shah (RMS, Inc.)Haresh Shah (RMS, Inc.)

Sean Solomon (Carnegie Institution Sean Solomon (Carnegie Institution of Washington)of Washington)

Ellis Stanley (LA Emergency Ellis Stanley (LA Emergency Preparedness Department)Preparedness Department)

Susan Tubbesing (EERI)Susan Tubbesing (EERI)

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Planning CommitteeSCEC Director

Board of Directors




FARMCommittee

GeologyCommittee

GeodesyCommittee

SeismologyCommittee


SHAFocus Group




Education

PublicOutreach

SCEC/ITR Project

SCIGNCoord. Com.


DiversityTask Force


• Chaired by Deputy Director

• Develops SCEC science plans– Advised by BoD and AC– coordinates with USGS

• Reviews project proposals and formulates coherent science program consistent with short-term objectives and long-term goals

• Makes recommendations to Board of Directors regarding project funding

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Disciplinary Committees





FARMCommittee

SeismologyCommittee

GeodesyCommittee

Geology Committee


SHAFocus Group





Education

PublicOutreach

SCEC/ITR Project

SCIGNCoord. Com.


DiversityTask Force

• Seismology– Broadband, high dynamic range sensors– Seismic information systems– Seismic imaging systems

• Tectonic Geodesy– Strainmeters– GPS– InSAR

• Earthquake Geology– Neotectonics– Paleoseismology

• Fault and Rock Mechanics– Laboratory studies– Field studies

10/03/03 17

Geodesy Disciplinary Disciplinary Committee

Crustal Motion Map, V3.0

• 833 crustal velocity estimates at 762 points833 crustal velocity estimates at 762 points• Co-seismic offsets for the Landers, Northridge & Hector Co-seismic offsets for the Landers, Northridge & Hector

Mine earthquakes Mine earthquakes • Data from SCIGNData from SCIGN

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Geology Disciplinary CommitteeGeology Disciplinary Committee

Puente Hills Blind ThrustPuente Hills Blind Thrust • Four large earthquakes have

occurred on the Puente Hills blind thrust in the last 11,000 years.

• This fault is capable of producing an earthquake of M > 7 beneath downtown Los Angeles

• The ground motions from such an event might severely damage even the best-designed buildings

Fold scarp onTrojan Way, Bellflower

Dolan et al. [2003]

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Simulation by Hall, Heaton, Wald, and Halling

Displacement Pulse from a M Displacement Pulse from a M 7.0 Blind-Thrust Earthquake 7.0 Blind-Thrust Earthquake Beneath Los AngelesBeneath Los Angeles

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Focus GroupsSCEC Director

Board of Directors




FARMCommittee

GeologyCommittee

GeodesyCommittee

SeismologyCommittee


SHAFocus Group





Education

PublicOutreach

SCEC/ITR Project

SCIGNCoord. Com.


DiversityTask Force

Objective:Objective: a unified 3-D representation of active faults and a unified 3-D representation of active faults and anelastic structure in Southern Californiaanelastic structure in Southern California

Magistrale et al., (2001)

Community Velocity Model (CVM)Community Velocity Model (CVM)Community Fault Model (CFM)Community Fault Model (CFM)

Plesch & Shaw (2003)

Structural Representation Focus GroupStructural Representation Focus Group

USRUSR

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From Fault Models to Block ModelsFrom Fault Models to Block ModelsFault representation on FEM Fault representation on FEM

meshmeshblock model of LAblock model of LA

Carl Gable, LANL

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Communication, Education & Outreach





FARMCommittee

GeologyCommittee

GeodesyCommittee

SeismologyCommittee


SHAFocus Group





Education

PublicOutreach

SCEC/ITR Project

SCIGNCoord. Com.


DiversityTask Force

• SCEC Community Development and Resources– SCEC scientists and students

• Implementation Interface– Scientists, engineers, practicing professionals, public

officials, risk managers, business & industry

• Public Outreach– News media, civic groups and the general public

• Education– Students and educators at K-12 and College levels

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E-Cube CollaborationE-Cube Collaboration

Partners:Partners:• Consortium of Universities for Research Consortium of Universities for Research

in Earthquake Engineering (CUREE)in Earthquake Engineering (CUREE)• Incorporated Research Institutions for Incorporated Research Institutions for

Seismology (IRIS)Seismology (IRIS)

Goal:Goal: To develop a web-basedTo develop a web-based Electronic Electronic Encyclopedia of EarthquakesEncyclopedia of Earthquakes (E-Cube) (E-Cube)

Funding:Funding: $650K grant over 2 yrs from $650K grant over 2 yrs from NSF/NSDL program (EHR Directorate)NSF/NSDL program (EHR Directorate)

10/03/03 25

Implementation Interface





FARMCommittee

GeologyCommittee

GeodesyCommittee

SeismologyCommittee


SHAFocus Group





Education

PublicOutreach

SCEC/ITR Project

SCIGNCoord. Com.


DiversityTask Force

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Current Implementation ActivitiesTHEME PROJECT INVESTIGATORS SPONSORSGround-Motion Predictionusing Rupture Dynamics

Pseudo-Dynamic Modeling Project Beroza, Guatteri PEER-Lifelines,SCEC

3D Basin Code Validation Project Day, Bielak, Dreger,Graves, Larsen, Olsen,Pitarka

PEER-Lifelines,SCEC

Ground-MotionSimulation CodeValidation

Foamquake Data Interp. Project:Phase 1: Modeling of directivityPhase 2: Validation of source inversionprocedures

Day, Graves, Pitarka,Silva, Zeng

PEER-Lifelines,admin through SCEC

Object Oriented PSHA FrameworkProject (Open-PSHA)

Field SCEC

PSHA Code Validation Project Wong et al., Field to useresults to validate Open-PSHA

PEER-Lifelines

Surface Faulting Hazard Schwartz, Petersen;Wills; Rockwell

PEER-Lifelines

Probabilistic SeismicHazard Analysis

Vector-Valued Hazard Project Somerville, Cornell SCEC, PEER

Ground-Motion TimeHistories

Time Histories for PEER Performance-Based Earthquake EngineeringTestbeds

Somerville PEER, SCEC

Ground-Motion PredictionModel

Next Generation Attenuation Project Power, Chiou,Abrahamson, Anderson,Beroza, Day, Graves,Olsen, Somerville, Zeng

PEER-Lifelines,SCEC

Interface Workshop on the interface betweenSCEC and earthquake engineeringresearch and practice

Somerville SCEC

Loss Estimation Loss Estimation Methodology forEvaluating Societal Impacts ofAlternative Seismic Hazard Models

Campbell SCEC

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Special ProjectsSCEC Director

Board of Directors




FARMCommittee

GeologyCommittee

GeodesyCommittee

SeismologyCommittee


SHAFocus Group





Education

PublicOutreach

SCEC/ITR Project

SCIGNCoord. Com.


DiversityTask Force

10/03/03 28

SCEC/ITR ProjectSCEC/ITR ProjectGoal: To develop a Community Modeling Environment that can support system-level earthquake science – the SCEC Collaboratory

Funding: $10M grant over 5 yrs from NSF/ITR program (CISE and Geoscience Directorates)

Start date: Oct 1, 2001

NSF

SCECInstitutions

IRIS

USGS

ISI

SDSC

InformationInformationScienceScience

EarthEarthScienceScience

SCEC/ITRProject

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Pathway Instantiations

SCEC Community Modeling EnvironmentSCEC Community Modeling EnvironmentAn information infrastructure for system-level earthquake scienceAn information infrastructure for system-level earthquake science

Knowledge Base

OntologiesCurated taxonomies,

Relations & constraints

Pathway ModelsPathway templates,

Models of simulation codes

Code Repositories

Data & SimulationProductsData Collections

FSM

RDM

AWM

SRM

Storage

GRIDPathway Execution

Policy, Data ingest, Repository access

Grid ServicesCompute & storage management, Security

DIGITALLIBRARIES

Navigation &Queries

Versioning,Topic maps

MediatedCollectionsFederated

access

KNOWLEDGEACQUISITION

Acquisition InterfacesDialog planning,

Pathway constructionstrategies

Pathway AssemblyTemplate instantiation,

Resource selection,Constraint checking

KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION & REASONINGKnowledge Server

Knowledge base access, InferenceTranslation Services

Syntactic & semantic translation

Computing

Users

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Computational PathwaysComputational Pathways

IntensityMeasures

Earthquake Forecast Model

AttenuationRelationship

1

Pathway 1: Standard Seismic Hazard Analysis

AWMGroundMotionsSRM

Unified Structural RepresentationFaults Motions Stresses Anelastic model

2

AWP = Anelastic Wave PropagationSRM = Site Response Model

Pathway 2: Ground motion simulation

RDM

FSM

3

FSM = Fault System ModelRDM = Rupture Dynamics Model

Pathway 3: Physics-based earthquake forecasting

Invert

Other DataGeologyGeodesy

4

Pathway 4: Ground motion inverse problem

10/03/03 31

IMIM RupRupn,in,i

Intensity-MeasureIntensity-MeasureRelationshipRelationship

Earthquake-Earthquake-RuptureRuptureForecastForecast

Prob(IMT IML) 1 1 Prob(IMT IML,Site | n,iRup ) * Prob( n,iRup ) n1

N ( i)

i1

I

Time SpanTime Span

Type, LevelType, Level

SourceSourceii

SiteSite

OpenSHAOpenSHAA Community Modeling Environment forA Community Modeling Environment for

Seismic Hazard AnalysisSeismic Hazard Analysis

Pathway 1: OpenSHAPathway 1: OpenSHA

Field, Jordan & Cornell, 2003

10/03/03 32

Pathway 4: Unified Approach to the Inverse of Regional Waveform Data for Source and Earth

Structure

• Seismology Disciplinary Committee– Waveform data from regional earthquakes

• Structural Representation and Fault System Focus Groups– Model parameterization using Community Block Model

• Ground Motion Focus Group– 3D waveform simulations

• SCEC/CME Project– Data and computational grids for inversion of large data

sets

10/03/03 33

SCEC/CME Undergraduate Intern Program

10/03/03 34

Questions About SCEC’s Future

• As we reach the midway point of SCEC2, how should we focus our research program to achieve our key 5-year objectives?

• What are the best strategies to increase the funding for the interdisciplinary research that fuels the SCEC collaboration?

• In particular, where we will find the resources to pursue major initiatives in exciting areas like fault and rock mechanics, investigations of the southern San Andreas fault and the California Borderland, and the NGA project?

• How can SCEC work colleagues in N. California and elsewhere to advance earthquake science?

• How can SCEC improve its interface with the NSF earthquake engineering research centers and the NEES program?

• How should SCEC activities be coordinated with EarthScope activities? What SCEC initiatives should be put forward under the banner of EarthScope?

10/03/03 35

Summary

SCEC provides Southern California withSCEC provides Southern California with– a focus on the serious problem of urban a focus on the serious problem of urban

vulnerability to earthquakesvulnerability to earthquakes– a framework for coordinating the activities of a framework for coordinating the activities of

many organizations representing different many organizations representing different approaches to earthquake risk reductionapproaches to earthquake risk reduction

– an engine for transforming raw earthquake an engine for transforming raw earthquake information into useful knowledge and practical information into useful knowledge and practical understandingunderstanding

– an organization effective in educating the public an organization effective in educating the public about earthquake hazards and risk reductionabout earthquake hazards and risk reduction

Documents

10/03/031. 2 An Overview of the Southern California Earthquake Center Thomas H. Jordan Director