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100 years of living science
Andy PurvisEcology & Evolution sectionDivision of Biology
Phylogeny and biodiversity in a changing world
1101
Entangled banks and the Tree of Life
DNA barcoding
DNA barcoding
Lahaye et al. 2008 PNAS 105: 2023-2028
Null hypothesis: single species
Tree should match a single coalescent process
Gives expectation for waiting times
Statistical approach to delimiting species
Pons et al. 2006 Systematic Biology 55: 595-609
Statistical approach to delimiting species
Alternate hypothesis: genetic clusters separated by longer branches
Coalescent within species,Yule process among species
Optimise switch point and tune parameters
Test for significance
Between-species branching Within
Pons et al. 2006 Systematic Biology 55: 595-609
Thorough sampling fromAustralian salt lakes
468 individuals
48 (46 to 52) genetic clusters
Coherent geographic ranges
Coherent morphology
Species delimitation: Australian tiger beetles
Pons et al. 2006 Systematic Biology 55: 595-609
Bird phylogenies show density-dependence
Phylloscopus and Seicercus
My before present
Line
age
no.
(log
scal
e)
Phillimore & Price 2008 PLoS Biology 6: 483-489
A species-level phylogeny of mammals
Bininda-Emonds et al. 2007 Nature 446: 507-512
All mammalsPlacentalsMarsupials
K-T
bou
ndar
y
P E O M P
Bininda-Emonds et al. 2007 Nature 446: 507-512
No diversification in response to K-T event
Did beetles get big & strong by eating their greens?
The most comprehensive phylogeny of beetles (1900 tips, ~ 80% of families represented)
Hunt et al. 2007 Science 318: 1913-1916
K-T
Hunt et al. 2007 Science 318: 1913-1916
Beetles have not diversified very rapidly
They are older than angiosperms
Hundreds of lineages made it through K-T
And they have kept on diversifying
Did beetles get big & strong by eating their greens?
Global pattern of species-richness
Mammalian species per 100km x 100km grid cellLat. gradient
Birds: Orme et al. 2005 Nature 436: 1016-1019Mammals & Amphibians: Grenyer et al. 2006 Nature 444: 93-96
‘Old’ vs ‘young’ diversity
Red = old diversity; blue = young diversity
‘Hotspots’ of history aren’t always the hotspots of richness
Mammals: Davies et al. in press PNASPlants: Forest, Grenyer et al. 2007 Nature 445: 757-760
Disparity: variance in log(body mass)
Hotspots of character diversity are not always in same place either
Mammals: Davies et al. in press PNASPlants: Forest, Grenyer et al. 2007 Nature 445: 757-760
Measuring extinction risk - the IUCN Red List
EW
CR
EN
VULRcd
LRnt
LR lcDD?
EX!!!
EW
EX!!!CR
EN
VULRcd
LRnt
LR lcDD?
Mace & Lande 1991 Cons. Biol.
Extinction risk is not random: mammals
Extinction risk shows both phylogenetic and geographic pattern - it is not random
Patterns differ among major groups too
mean
Small and large mammals have different rules
Predictor Small (<3kg) Large (>3kg)
Geog. range size -14.03*** -3.90***
Latitude 5.49***
Human density -2.10*
Human density2 3.48***
Ext. threat index 3.71*** 2.99**
Neonate size 2.09*
Litters/year -2.04*
Pop. density -2.27**
Cardillo et al. 2005 Science 309: 1239-1241
Model biotic decline as function of human actions
Use spatial variation in drivers in lieu of a time series
Drivers: • % urban or cropland • Human population density
Plot marginal effect of drivers of threat • blue=low, purple=hot • controls for biology differences
Davies et al. in press PNAS
Logit
(Land c
onvers
ion)
Log(Human density)
The goal - predictions under relevant scenarios
Adapting Mosaic
Order from Strength
Davies et al. in press PNAS
de Mazancourt et al. 2008 Ecol. Letts 11: 380-388
Phe
noty
pic
tra
it va
lue
Phe
noty
pic
tra
it va
lue
Number of generations Number of generations Number of generations
Number of generations Number of generations
a – species #11 b – species #11
a – species #2 b – species #2 c
Diversity, global change, and evolutionary rates
Genes Individuals Populations Species Interactions
iiiiiiivvvi
12
123
ABCDEF
GCGCGTACCTAG
A B C D E F- + + + + ++ - + + ++ + -+ - + -+ -
Local populations Global biodiversity
Biological networks
GenBank
TangledBank?
Interactomics
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Integrated biodiversity analysis
Entangled banks and the Tree of Life
