Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
100 Years Ago
There were only 8,000 cars in the U.S., and only 144
miles of paved roads.
The maximum speed limit in most cities was 10 mph.
Road Maintenance and the Changing Climate
Don MacIver, Heather Auld, Joan Klaassen,Neil Comer
MEETING TAXPAYERS EXPECTATIONS: KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY
• Increasing population and demographics
• More affluence and property value• Increasing urbanization and 24/7
Impacts and Adaptation Science Impacts and Adaptation Science
Solutions:Solutions: providing providing assistance by making assistance by making ……
Impacts and Adaptation Science Impacts and Adaptation Science
Solutions:Solutions: providing providing assistance by making assistance by making ……
• • An An adjustmentadjustment in response to in response toactual or expected stimuliactual or expected stimuli
• Building our adaptive capacity by improving our adaptation
science and partnerships
Making decisions and acting sustainably in a complex
and changing world
Canada Customs
Red River
Emerson
Red River Valley FloodRADARSAT Satellite Image
Floodway
Winnipeg
Brunkild Dyke
Floodway Inlet
St. Agathe
Rosenort
Morris
Adaptation Deficit Adaptation Deficit is increasingis increasing
Global Costs of Great Natural Disasters (1950-2000) in US$ Billions, including economic and insured losses
(Great natural disasters defined as > 100 deaths and/or US$ 100M in claims)
ADAPTATION DEFICIT
Source: ICLR, based on data from IBC and Emergency Preparedness Canada
Increasing Natural Disaster LossesIs Vulnerability of Communities Increasing??
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
economic loss
insured loss
billions of 1999 $
Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options
Bear the loss (eg. liability)Prevent the effects (eg. ice removal)Modify the events (eg. salt/sand)Change Behaviour (eg. warnings)Research – (eg. science & technology)Education & outreach
Invest in disaster resilienceInvest in disaster resilience
The Changing Climate
Changes in temperature are unevenly distributed
Degrees C
Trends for 1950-98
Trends in extremes
X. Zhang. B. Bonsal, É. Mekis, A. Shabbarand L. Vincent
Less intense cold
Trend in 5th percentile of daily Tmin (Winters, 1900-1998)
Ontario
• GETTING WARMER
• NON-LINEAR
WARMER
WARMER
LITTLE CHANGE
Canada is becoming wetter Percent change in precipitation 1950-98
Ontario
• GETTING WETTER
• NON-LINEAR
WETTER
WETTER
Wiarton A Annual Temperature
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995
Year
Tem
per
atu
re (
°C
)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Minimum
Mean
Maximum
2003
Beatrice Annual Precipitation1895-2003
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995
Year
An
n P
reci
pit
ati
on
(m
m)
Has the Climate Been Changing in the Georgian Bay Area?
Since 1895…
Annual Temps warmed ~ 0.5-1.0 C
(Min Temps up to 2 C)
Annual Precip increased Up to 20%
Long term Climate Stations
Has the Climate Been Changing in the Long Point Area?
Since 1935…
Annual Temps warmed ~ 0.3C
(Min Temps up to 0.8C)
Annual Precip increased ~ 5-10%
Delhi CDA/CS Annual Temperature
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
Tem
per
atu
re (
°C
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Minimum
Mean
Maximum
Delhi CDA Annual Precipitation1935-2003
500
650
800
950
1100
1250
1400
1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Year
An
n P
reci
pit
atio
n (
mm
)
Lake Erie
Source: Dianne MacIver, based on daily newspaper archives from the Dufferin County Museum and Archives
Small Increases = Escalating Infrastructure Damages
“small increases in weather and climate extremes have the potential to bring large increases in damages to existing infrastructure”
DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE: Energy, Moisture, Momentum
RCTO Surface Weather Maps
EC Radar Imagery/Derived Products
Satellite Imagery
July 9/1800 GMTApril 21/0000 GMT
Britt CAPPIAug 1/ 0025Z
Visible impacts Visible impacts with extremes…with extremes…
Saguenay flooding (1996), 26 millions m3 of water and 9 millions tons of debris
The Great Ice Storm (1998),1,5 millions customers without electricity for up to 30 days
Waves and storms
floods
forest fires
droughts, heat spells
Toronto August 19, 2005Toronto August 19, 2005
Finch Avenue During and After
the Storm
Impacts of Atmospheric Hazards on Impacts of Atmospheric Hazards on Wind Energy GenerationWind Energy Generation
What’s Happening, and What’s Happening, and What Can We ExpectWhat Can We Expect
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGEGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
We are not the first to worry about climate change
“The picture’s pretty bleak, gentlemen…The world’s climates are changing, the mammals are taking over,and we all have a brain aboutthe size of a walnut.”
Larson, 1985
Cautious
Increasing Confidence
International science has provided International science has provided sound advice for policy discussionssound advice for policy discussions
1990
1992
1995
1997
2001
First ReportFirst Report
Second ReportSecond Report
Third ReportThird Report
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Scientists have studied the relationship Scientists have studied the relationship between greenhouse gas concentrations and between greenhouse gas concentrations and climate for more than a centuryclimate for more than a century
Highest concentration in last 400,000 yearsHighest concentration in last 400,000 years
900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000260
280
300
320
340
360
380
CO
2 C
once
ntra
tion
(ppm
v)
Because humans are changing the Because humans are changing the composition of the atmospherecomposition of the atmosphere
Climate Forcing Factor
0
1
2
3
-1
-2
Glo
bal M
ean R
ad
iat i
ve F
or c
i ng
(W
/ m2
)
Wellmixed GHGs
Trop. Ozone
Strat.Ozone Sulphate
Soot
BiomassBurning
Aerosol- indirect
Solar
Aerosols - direct
A number of human factors may have affected our climate
Modelled response to all forcings agrees best with observations
THE CHANGING CLIMATE
Mitigation will slow down the rate and magnitude of change, but the need to adapt is unavoidable
December-January-February Mean Temperature Changes 2020
December-January-February Mean Temperature Changes 2080
December-January-February % Change in Precipitation 2020
December – January – February % Change in Precipitation 2080
Global Climate Model Projections for the 2050s for the Georgian Bay Area
Annual Mean Temps Warming
2.2 – 4.0 C
Annual Mean Precip Increasing2.5 – 12%
Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline ClimateScenario data from CGCM2 and HadCM3
Global and Regional Simulations of Global and Regional Simulations of SnowpackSnowpack
NCAR
Climate Change: Climate Change: Managing HazardsManaging Hazards
Increased frequency, severity of drought Increases in tropical storms/hurricane wind and precipitation intensity
More extreme maximum temperatures (less extreme mins) More intense, more frequent, longer lasting heat waves More intense, more frequent precipitation events
CLIMATE CHANGEChanges in Extremes
Very Likely
Likely
Increased risk extreme events such as tornadoes, hail, lightning, ice storms
Projections of changes in average Canadian extreme 24-hour rainfall events that can be expected to recur once every 10, 20, 40, or 80 years. (Canadian Model, CGCM1, with Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases)
Projected Changes in Canadian Extreme Precipitation
10 20 40 80
Recurrence time (years)
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Siz
e o
f Eve
nt (
mm
)
1985
2050
2090
2090 2050 1985
~ 75 mm
Risk of more severeRisk of more severestormsstorms
Involves assessment of risks to weather hazards:Fog Lightning Heavy Rain Heavy Snow
Hurricanes Wind StormsExtreme Heat/Cold Ice Storms
Drought TornadoesExtreme Air Quality Events
Ontario Emergency Management Act
Weather Hazard Risk AssessmentWeather Hazard Risk Assessment(Vulnerability Assessment)
Hazards Website: Hazards Website: http://www.hazards.ca
Source:EMO, 2003
Hazard and Impact Risk Assessment (HIRA)Hazard and Impact Risk Assessment (HIRA)Community Risk Assessment GridCommunity Risk Assessment Grid
HELPING MUNICIPALITIES ADAPT
Ontario MOE, 2004Ozone & Hot Days
Cold Nights1-Day Rainfall
Hot Days >30C
Trends in Climatic IndicatorsTemperature, Precipitation, Air Quality
Trends now included… soon, climate change projections
Atmospheric Hazards - Selection ResultsMap: .Ontario South Boreal(2300)Selected 586 places on this map
Parameters:Parameters: Hail Frequency in Ontario (Etkin) between 0.50 and 2.00 # Hail Frequency in Ontario (Etkin) between 0.50 and 2.00 # Days/Year and Tornado Frequency in Ontario (Newark) between Days/Year and Tornado Frequency in Ontario (Newark) between 0.80 and 2.40 # Events/Year0.80 and 2.40 # Events/Year
Moderate-High Hail FrequenciesAND
Moderate-High Tornado Frequencies
Ice Storm ‘98
Canada’s most costly ($) weather disaster ever
Up to 95 mm of freezing rain accumulation in 3 separate “storms” over 1st week January
Impacted 4 provinces; 7 states
1 million households without power at peak
Collapsed communication towers, electrical transmission/distribution systems, phone lines
Deaths: 28 in Canada; 19 in U.S.
Ice Storm ’98 was Ontario Ice Storm of:
Greatest Duration
Areal Extent
Ice Accumulation
Impacts (and hydro downtime)
Source: Klaassen et al., 2003
Ice Storm ‘98Ice Storm ‘98 24 Ice Storms24 Ice Storms (Ontario: 1844-(Ontario: 1844-
2002)2002)
DurationDuration 6 days6 days
(3 “events”)(3 “events”)12 hrs – 4 days12 hrs – 4 days
Areal ExtentAreal Extent 110,000 km110,000 km22 4,000 - 90,000 km4,000 - 90,000 km22
Ice Ice AccumulationAccumulation
95 mm95 mm 30 to 70-80 mm30 to 70-80 mm
Maximum Maximum Hydro Hydro DowntimeDowntime
3 ½ weeks3 ½ weeks <1 day to 2 weeks<1 day to 2 weeks
12 hour storm m otion
C entre of the storm
P ERS IST ENTARCT IC H IGH
Tracks of the m ajor ice storm s w hich im pacted Southern O ntario
during the period 1948-2002
1948 Jan 11948 Jan 1
1953 Jan 9-101953 Jan 9-10
1953 Jan 8-91953 Jan 8-9
1
2
1967 Jan 26-27
1968 Jan 161968 Jan 16
1971 Feb 4-51971 Feb 4-5
1976 Mar 1-51976 Mar 1-5
1986 Dec 24-251986 Dec 24-25
1990 Feb 15-161990 Feb 15-16
1997 Mar 141997 Mar 14
1998 Jan 4-9 1998 Jan 4-9 see separate graphic
Tracks of Major Ice Storms
which impactedSouthern/Eastern Ontario
During the period 1948-2002
1 st episode
2nd episode
3rd episode
Ice Storm 98Tracks of the January 4-9 /1998
storm system s
P ERS IST ENTA RCT IC H IGH
12 hour s to rm m otion
C en tre o f the sto rm
C om m unica tions Tow er C o llapse
Com m unicationtower collapse Jan 10,1998
4
Ice Storm ‘98
Ice Storm Conclusions….
Southern Ontario has been on “snow end” of major North American ice storms in PAST…
Great Lakes likely moderate risks near shorelines
Projected increases in freezing rain events with climate change – especially eastern and northern Ontario
Societal vulnerability ( ie. adaptation deficit) to ice storms has already increased, and likely will continue to increase in future
City of Ottawa By-Law … Winter Road and Sidewalk Maintenance
Ottawa Trends … Observations
Snow decreasing
Rain increasing
Total Annual Freezing Rain Hours (Days) for Ontario Stations (1953-2001)
6 (3)
5 (2)
6 (2)
22 (7)
12 (4)
8 (3)
24 (8)
10 (4)
14 (5)
24 (7)14 (5)
22 (7)
OTTAWA MAX
37 (10)
17 (5)
MIN
Ottawa
0
20
40
60
80
100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
b=0.174 P=0.34395
ZR hours
98
Ottawa
0
20
40
60
80
100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
b=0.174 P=0.34395
ZR hours
Trends in Occurrence of Freezing Rain??
14 Ontario stations, Montreal(1953-2001)
12 U.S. Great Lakes region sites (1973-2000)
Risk same or slight decrease in S Ont and Central Ont along shorelines
Increasing trends in E Ont and N Ont
Great Lakes influence on freezing rain occurrence?
DECREASED frequency shores Lk Ontario, Lake Erie
98
Power Line Climatological Design CriteriaPower Line Climatological Design Criteria
CSA/CEA design radial ice amounts (mm on 1 inch conductor)CSA/CEA design radial ice amounts (mm on 1 inch conductor)
Design criteria of 25-30 mm for much of southern Ontario – less in northern Ontario
Study showed risk of major power outages increases whenFreezing rain amounts > ~30 mm
Potential for long outages/”community disasters” and emergency shelters whenFreezing rain amounts > ~40 mm
Eastern Ontario most at risk for transmission line failures, communication tower collapses
Increased Vulnerability to Ice Storms with Climate Change?
Based on: CGCM2 A2
Changes in Frequency of Freezing Rain Weather Patterns by 2050 for Toronto and Ottawa
9%7%
20%
34%
30%
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
% C
han
ge
(195
8-01
to
204
1-60
)
Toronto
Ottawa
Changes in Frequency of Freezing Rain Weather Patterns by 2050 for Toronto and Ottawa
9%7%
20%
30%
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Toronto
Ottawa
Based on: CGCM2 A2
>= 6 Hrs Frzg Rain>= 4 Hrs Frzg Rain
(preliminary)Observed Increases in Freeze-Thaw Cycles?
Changes in Climate & Spring Weight Restrictions (SWRs)
(lower weight required in thaw periods)
Earlier spring weight restrictions
• Our climate is already changing – community specific
• Particularly vulnerable to Climate extremes and Creeping Changes
• CLIMATE CHANGE will have significant impacts on all aspects of life:
Greater expectations along with aging population and property
• We will need to:
ADAPT to reduce adaptation deficit, and strengthen human health and safetyby improving our prediction, prevention, design and operational capacities
Reduce our GHG emissions to slow the rate of CC
In Conclusion....
