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Paul Mortimer-Lee 8 August 2011

Desknote www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com 

10 Reasons the US Downgrade Matters

There are lots of reasons to expect a limited impact on Treasuries of the S&P downgrade of the US from AAA to

AA+ with a negative outlook, including the fact that it was widely anticipated (see ). But it clearly does matter (otherwise Treasury and the White House would not have spent so much effort commenting and criticising S&P).

1) We don’t need more bad news and uncertainty in current markets. The downgrade raises a whole slew of questions where market participants feel unsure of the answers. Uncertainty has risen. When summer marketsare thin and psychology is fragile, another uncertainty is not welcome.

2) There will be a range of follow-on downgrades, S&P said in its note on Friday: “On Monday, we will issueseparate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions,insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors.” For example, fifteen US states are currently AAAand it is fair to ask whether they can rank above the US.

3) US Treasuries play an important role in financial markets. While we do not expect a knee-jerk reaction inTreasury yields, longer-term we reckon the downgrade could add 25bp to 10-year Treasury yields which isbound to push up other rates. When the risk-free asset is no longer risk-free, it not only questions whateconomic participants had taken for granted but also raises many questions about other assets.

4) Ratings are in part relative. US Treasuries being downgraded will put the spotlight on other AAAs. In thisregard, markets and economic agents may ignore the fact that a lack of political will to implement fiscalconsolidation in the US was cited as the main reason for the downgrade, and may ignore this when pricingother debt.

5) Responses by China in particular illustrate that concern over the US debt trajectory is serious. China’s DagongGlobal Credit Rating. Co. last week cut the US from A+ to A with a negative outlook. China’s Xinhua newsagency said China has "every right now to demand the United States address its structural debt problems andensure the safety of China's dollar assets. International supervision over the issue of US dollars should beintroduced and a new, stable and secured global reserve currency may also be an option to avert a

catastrophe caused by any single country." Anything that increases Chinese concerns over holding Treasuriesshould be a concern to every other holder of Treasuries.

6) The USD is the world’s premier reserve currency. The downgrade is symbolic of the reducing importancegenerally of the West in the global economy and is a symptom of a wider malaise and relative decline. Worriesabout US fiscal sustainability and political willingness to take hard choices cannot be good for global currencyand financial market stability.

7) We’ve crossed the Rubicon. The next sovereign downgrade will be easier. S&P’s long-run outlook on the US isnegative. The upside scenario for S&P is “likely to slow the deterioration of the government's debt dynamics,the long-term rating could stabilize at 'AA+'.” That does not look like much of an upside.

8) The downgrade gives more brickbats for US politicians to throw at each other, without necessarily improvingthe chances of an agreed path towards sustainable public finances. We hope this focuses the minds of thepoliticians on the bipartisan Committee seeking to agree on the composition of USD 1.5trn of budget savings

over 10 years. But markets fear it may polarise views, not bring them together.9) The downgrade cannot be good for US growth. It will increase borrowing costs, for example for state and local

governments and for a whole range of private sector institutions. It increases uncertainty and therefore will actas a deterrent to investment and hiring. It will tend to slow an economy that is already slow. It will lower theprivate sector’s belief in the ability of the state to stabilise the economy and markets.

10) The downgrade reflects legitimate concerns. First, about the process of agreeing to budgetary savings in theUS and second about the massive adjustment the US faces in putting its primary deficit onto a sustainablefooting (see http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/01/pdf/fm1101.pdf .) While markets have concentratedon eurozone fiscal dynamics, for the eurozone as a whole the deficit position is far more favourable than in theUS (though there is a big problem about dispersion). The recently agreed package to secure an extension of the debt ceiling is too small to achieve a sustainable fiscal balance and US politicians likely will not take thefurther needed steps(on top of the too-small savings agreed in principle so far) to make the budget sustainableuntil 2013 at the earliest.

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