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The WJP Rule of Law Index

Alejandro PonceThe World Justice Project

April, 2013

The WJP Rule of Law Index in a nutshell2

The ROL Index is a quantitative assessment tool designed to offer a comprehensive picture of the extent to which countries adhere to the rule of law in practice.Contribution:

1. Comprehensive definition of Rule of Law2. New data:

⁘Views and experiences of random ordinary people⁘Views and opinions of experts

3. Quantification of 48 rule of law outcomes in 97 countries obtained from more than 400 variables.

MotivationConsensus within the international community in support of the rule of law.

“Establishing respect for the rule of law is fundamental to achieving a durable peace in the aftermath of conflict, to the effective protection of human rights, and to sustained economic progress and development.” (United Nations)

Yet there is little agreement about what constitutes the rule of law and what its current status is

Challenges in defining the rule of law

1. Thin vs. thick

2. Ends vs. means

3. Western tradition

WJP Rule of Law Index

WJP Rule of Law Index

State DutiesChecks

Measurement Approach8

1. Perspective of the ordinary person:

2. Two sources of entirely new data:⁘ A general population poll (GPP): Probability sample -

1,000 respondents per country (three largest cities).⁘ Qualified respondent’s questionnaires (QRQ):

Completed by in-country experts in civil and commercial law; criminal justice; labor law; and public health.

Botero J. and Ponce A., Measuring the Rule of Law. WJP Working Paper # 1 (2011). Available on-line at: www.worldjusticeproject.org

Examples of questions

In the last 3 years, have you or someone in your household, been subjected to physical abuse by the police or the military? [If yes] Did you or anyone else report the crime to the police or other authority? (GPP)

Assume that a poor person is arrested on suspicion of aggravated robbery. Assume that the suspect is taken into custody and detained at a local police station in the city where you live. How likely is it that the police interrogators inflict minor physical harm on the detained suspect to admit the crime? (QRQ)

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Measurement Approach

Building the scores11

400 variables

48 sub-factors and 9 factors

8. Effective criminal justice

Building the scores8.1 Criminal investigation is effective.

8.2 Criminal adjudication system is timely and effective

8.7 Due process of law and the rights of the accused.- Presumption of innocence - Arrest and pre-trial detention - Torture and abusive treatment to suspects- Legal representation- Access to translators- Evidence- Rights of prisoners

30 questions

Validity checks14 1. Face validity

2. Rely on several variables

3. Include the assessments of experts in different disciplines and the general public

4. Check our results against qualitative and quantitative third party sources.

5. Sensitivity analysis to assess how variation in the assumptions (including missing data, weighting, normalization, or aggregation) and the samples can alter our estimates

15 1) Definition: ⁘Different definitions and value structures (Uwa

community in Colombia).⁘Different legal architectures (Parliamentary democracy,

presidential democracy, kingdom).⁘Different goals (e.g. Criminal system: Retribution and

deterrence in USA; rehabilitation and social harmony in Japan).

2) Measurement:⁘Cross-cultural differences.⁘Sensitive questions.⁘Measurement error.

3) Sampling: Rural vs. urban.

Acknowledging limitations

Rule of law in the world

Aggregate rule of law score

Rule of law and GDP per capita

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,0000.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Ghana

Cameroon

GDP per capita (current US$)

WJP

Rul

e of

Law

Inde

x (A

vera

ge sc

ore)

Civil justice in the U.S.

Civil justice in the U.S.

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Estonia: Ranks in the top 20 in 7 dimensions

Russia: Deficiencies in checks and balances (92/97)

Turkey: 39th out of 97 in regulatory enforcement, 76th in fundamental rights

Aggregate rule of law score

Bribery in Sub-Saharan AfricaDid you (or the person living in your household) have to pay a bribe in order to receive medical attention at any Public hospital or clinic?

Sierra Leone

Zim-babwe

Malawi Tanzania Cameroon

Zambia Uganda Senegal Cote d'Ivoire

Burkina Faso

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

AccountabilityEgypt Iran Jordan Lebanon Morocco Tunisia UAE

In practice, the government's power is not concentrated in one person, but is distributed among different independent branches, for instance the President or Prime Minister, the Congress or Legislative body, and the judges.

0.58 0.26 0.65 0.90 0.68 0.64 0.38

Government officials are sanctioned for misconduct

0.49 0.35 0.55 0.39 0.48 0.48 0.71

Source: The World Justice Project Rule of Law Index 2012-2013

A tool for discussing country-specific findings

Colombia, November 15, 2010:

“(...) Another important organization that promotes justice around the world, the World

Justice Project, just released its report entitled Rule of Law Index, and it includes Colombia… If we review the area of access to justice, we find that we get a score very close to zero on the effectiveness of the criminal investigation system… these reports, that are known on a global scale, must make us turn on our alarms. You—the judiciary—and us—the government—together with Congress, must put all our effort to achieving a more efficient and effective criminal justice system.”

Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia

Colombia: Argument for reform

Mexico: Delivery of Justice26

0

⁘For more information and data, please visit our website: www.worldjusticeproject.org

Thank you

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WJP Rule of Law Index

Definitions: Rachel Kleinfeld "Competing definitions of the Rule of Law"

1. Government bound by law2. Equality before the law3. Law and order4. Predictable, efficient justice5. Lack of state violation of human rights

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Statistical Tests on the WJP Rule of Law Index

• In summary, “the JRC analysis suggests that the conceptualized multi-level structure of the WJP Rule of Law Index is statistically coherent and no dimension is dominated by any of its underlying components. Country ranks across the eight dimensions are also fairly robust to methodological changes related to the estimation of missing data, weight, or aggregation rule (less than ± 1 position shift in 90% of all cases).”

Saisana, M., and Saltelli, A., ‘Statistical Tests on the WJP Rule of Law Index 2011’. http://worldjusticeproject.org/sites/default/files/jrcaudit_wjpindex2011.pdf

Saisana, M., and Saltelli, A., ‘Rankings and Ratings: Instructions for Use’, Hague Journal on the Rule of Law, 2011, Volume 3, Issue 2. http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayIssue?decade=2010&jid=ROL&volumeId=3&issueId=02&iid=8394462#

Statistical tests of the WJP Rule of Law Index

Middle East and North Africa

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%Mena Upper Middle Income

Discrimination against women and religions minorities remains an area of concern Imagine that the local police detain two persons equally suspected of committing a crime. In your opinion, which of the following characteristics would place one of them at a disadvantage?

Latin America & the Caribbean

Global Ranking

Limited government powers 56 / 97

Corruption 57 / 97

Order and Security 72 / 97

Fundamental rights 49 / 97

Open government 52 / 97

Regulatory enforcement 54 / 97

Civil Justice 63 / 97

Criminal justice 68 / 97

Sanctions for misconduct in LAC

Example: Assume that a high-ranking government officer is taking government money for personal benefit and one of his employees witnesses this conduct, reports it to the relevant authority, and provides sufficient evidence to prove it. Assume that the press obtains the information and publishes the story. Which one of the following outcomes is most likely? (data for Mexico)

The accusation is completely ignored by the authorities

An investigation is opened, but it never reaches any conclusions

The high-ranking government officer is prosecuted and punished (through fines, or time in prison)

0 20 40 60 80 100

21

59

20

% of respondents

Latin America, as a region, achieves the second lowest score in factor 1.5 “Government officials are sanctioned for misconduct”

Factor 7: Civil Justice

55% of Chinese respondents answered that judges decide most cases according to “What the government tells them to do”.

www.worldjusticeproject.org

What the law says

What powerful private interests tell them to do

What the government tells them to do

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

39%

6%

55%

Judicial independence in China% of respondents answering that most judges decide cases

according to:

Middle East and North Africa

Global Ranking

Limited government powers 53 / 97

Corruption 46 / 97

Order and Security 48 / 97

Fundamental rights 76 / 97

Open government 57 / 97

Regulatory enforcement 49 / 97

Civil Justice 46 / 97

Criminal justice 54 / 97

Latin America & the Caribbean

Chile and Uruguay rank in the top 25 in five dimensions

Brazil: Best performer among BRIC countries, but crime is high

Mexico: Weak in corruption, security, and criminal justice

Venezuela is the weakest performer in the region

Aggregate rule of law score

Sub-Saharan Africa

Ghana ranks first among low-income countries in four dimensions

Zimbabwe: Deficiencies in checks and balances (96/97)

Botswana ranks first in the region in seven dimensions and top 25 globally in six.

Corruption is a problem throughout the region

Aggregate rule of law score

South Asia

Global Ranking

Limited government powers 60/ 97

Corruption 75 / 97

Order and Security 82 / 97

Fundamental rights 69 / 97

Open government 71 / 97

Regulatory enforcement 75 / 97

Civil Justice 81 / 97

Criminal justice 59 / 97