1 The Carbon Reduction Project Hard Choices Ahead Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind? United Reform Church Synod: 15 th March 2008 Keith Tovey

1

The Carbon Reduction ProjectHard Choices Ahead

Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind?

United Reform Church Synod: 15th March 2008

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 Н.К.Тови )

M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv

Lay Chairman: Norwich East Deanery, Energy Science Director HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation at UEA

CRed

22

Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)

Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

33Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation

Source: Tim

Osborne, C

RU

Change in precipitation 1961-2001Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood

4

(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)

Norwich

Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise

Norwich City would be playing water polo!

5Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

actual

predicted

Is Global Warming man made?

Prediction: Anthropogenic only

Not a good match between 1920 and 1970

Predictions include:

• Greenhouse Gas emissions

• Sulphates and ozone

• Solar and volcanic activity5

6


Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

Prediction: Natural only

good match until 1960




• Solar and volcanic activity

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atur

e R

ise

(o C)

actual

predicted

6

7

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

actualpredicted

Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic

Generally a good match




• Solar and volcanic activity


7

8

19792003

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region

• NASA satellite imagery

• الجليد الصيفالقطب في

تغطية الشماليالقطبيه المنطقة

• الصور ناساالفضاءيه

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

في ٪ 20• سنوات 24تخفيض

المناختغير كاب القطبيه الجليديه على 2003 - 1979 اثار

8

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

Baseload Wholesale Electricity Prices

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

pen

ce /

kW

h

Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020

UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004

Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed

9

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could

supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect

this

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

potential contribution to Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Inst

all

ed C

ap

aci

ty (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently

35% )

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higherNuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed

each year after 2018.

10

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

1111


~ 2p


Cost in2020


Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

12


~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW

13

Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km

But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

14


10+ p

Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

50% + available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

15


10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately

techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%

4 - 8p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


16


10+ p


2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p

17

Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p


10+ p


2.5 - 4

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Output (MWh)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

01/0

1/20

02

15/0

1/20

02

29/0

1/20

02

12/0

2/20

02

26/0

2/20

02

12/0

3/20

02

26/0

3/20

02

09/0

4/20

02

23/0

4/20

02

07/0

5/20

02

21/0

5/20

02

04/0

6/20

02

18/0

6/20

02

02/0

7/20

02

16/0

7/20

02

30/0

7/20

02

13/0

8/20

02

27/0

8/20

02

10/0

9/20

02

24/0

9/20

02

08/1

0/20

02

22/1

0/20

02

05/1

1/2

002

19/1

1/2

002

03/1

2/20

02

17/1

2/20

02

31/1

2/20

02

Out

put

(MW

h pe

r da

y)

Output 78 000 GWh per annum

Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney

Save 40000 tonnes of CO2

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10+ p


2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


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Actual Nuclear

Projected Nuclear

Actual Coal with FGD

Opted Out Coal

Renewables

New Nuclear?

New Coal ???

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MW

• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018

Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy SecurityThere is a

looming capacity shortfall

Even with a full deployment of

renewables.

A 10% reduction in demand per

house will see a steady level in total demand

- Increased population decreased

household size

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our power stations NOW - Apart from small schemes it is not available at present.

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power

• Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS

• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal?

-the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

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How carbon friendly is the Energy we use?

23

How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

Around 4 million over Norfolk.

In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person

Is this Fair?

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

2424

Raising Awareness• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.

Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances 60+ kWh a year - 3000 balloons at a cost of over £6 per year

• Filling up with petrol (~£41 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

2525

The Behavioural Dimension

Electricity Consumption

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7No. people

Ave

rage

kW

h/m

onth

• Household size has little impact on electricity consumption.

• Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size.

• Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more.

• Education/Awareness is important

26Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

Responding to the Challenge: Technical SolutionsSolar Thermal Energy

27

Solar Gain (kWh/day)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10 20 30 9 19 29 8 18 28 10 20 30 9 19 29 9 19 29 8 18 28 8 18 28 7 17 27 6 16 26 6 16 26 5 15 25 5 15 1 11 21 31 10

Day of Month

Solar

Gain

(kW

h)

December JanuaryFebruary MarchApril MayJune JulyAugust SeptemberOctober NovemberDecember

Solar Hot Water

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

kWh

/ d

ay

2006 - 07

2007 - 08

Responding to the Challenge: Technical SolutionsSolar Thermal Energy

28

House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels

- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February

29

Micro CHP

Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions

29

Micro CHP plant for homes are being trialled.They replace the normal boilerBut there is a problem in summer as there is limited demand for heat.Backup generation is still needed unless integrated with solar photovoltaic?

30

Throttle Valve

Condenser

Heat supplied to house

Evaporator

Heat extracted from outside

Low TemperatureLow Pressure

High TemperatureHigh Pressure

Responding to the Challenge: Technical SolutionsThe Heat Pump

Any low grade source of heat may be used• Typically coils buried in garden• Bore holes• Example of roof solar panel (Look East: Tuesday)

Compressor

A heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in. We are working with thermodynamics not against it.

3131

Involve the local Community

• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.

• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.

• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.

• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

3232

Involve the local CommunityEven better things are happening on the Island of Westray.

The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines

Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm

and other vehicles.

Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea

weed

3333

Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint: Micro Wind

While these device are now available, and at least one manufacturer claims (or at least did claim) you could get “cash back” of up to £50, in 2007, none of the devices in UK appear to have generated sufficient to even trigger the basic threshold.

34

Transport: Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour

• Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris

• Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph.

• Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10%%

New Vehicles:

A Hybrid Vehicle

35

Historic Trends: Freight

• Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by:– 223% since 1960– 20% since 1990

• Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?

36

Social Issues: Lift SharingOur congested roads are full of empty seats

The UK leader in lift sharing, Liftshare.comis based in Norfolk; Aim: CO2, Car Occupancy 2

52 million km shared each year.

Car travel (2006 statistics):• 679 billion passenger kilometres• 398 billion vehicle kilometres

Average occupancy 1.71.Raising this to an average of 2 would save

9.9 Mtonnes CO2.

Lift sharing/car pooling is very cost effective, can help combat social exclusion, and enhance the effectiveness of public transport.

Increasing average car occupancy is a very cheap way of saving CO2 and reducing car use.

A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future未来的低碳之路

1. 不要浪费能源 Awareness

3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable Energy

4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting

2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Solutions

38

WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links

• We have difficult choices to make

• Reduce Energy we use

• Integrated approach to renewables

• Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room

Conclusions

Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

40

Act of Commitment

• As we celebrate the goodness, diversity and wonder of God’s creation, we admit our collective guilt in allowing species to become so swiftly extinct, in depleting finite energy and raw materials, and in polluting the earth’s soil, water and atmosphere. Let us be ready to change the way we think and live.

• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.

• Let us commit ourselves, as individuals and within our churches, to do all we can to heal and restore the damage people have caused to God’s earth, and to develop sustainable lifestyles, both for ourselves and to inspire others.


• Let us commit ourselves to do all in our power to support church communities planning a better way of living in their localities.


41

Act of Commitment

• Let each of us commit ourselves to play our part and take what action we can to cherish God’s creation.


• We pledge to pray and work for an environmentally sustainable and socially just world, in the interest of all earth’s Inhabitants, both present and future generations, and for the well-being and flourishing of the whole earth.

Amen

43Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington

Documents

1 The Carbon Reduction Project Hard Choices Ahead Climate Change: The Greatest Threat to Mankind? United Reform Church Synod: 15 th March 2008 Keith Tovey