Upload
reynold-pearson
View
215
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
Tackling systemic questionsBELS, London 2009.10.12
Simon Roberts Associate Director, Foresight Group
QuickTime™ and aYUV420 codec decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and aMotion JPEG OpenDML decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
2
can quickly could our carbon-based economy become a low- then zero-carbon economy?
3
4
how does our economy need to adjust to persistently high oil prices?
5
if we reduce demand for carbon-intensive goods, can we still have a healthy growing economy?
6
can we afford to radically scale up renewable energy?
7
desirable objectives are low carbon emissions, energy security, economic growth and low unemployment; can they all be achieved together?
8
smooth
transition
9
beehive
financial account
income
current account transfers
financial account
reproduction (queen)fertilization (drones)cleaning the hivefeeding the larvaereceiving nectar and pollenguarding the hiveforaging
10
which bee owns which cell?
11
flow ofstuff
/y
services£/y
concepts
energyPJ/y
stocks ofstuff
trade in goods
trade in fuel
financial account
income
current account transfers
trade in services
workingpopulation
capitafinancial account
transportkm/y
12
all physical assets
AgricultureBasic metalsChemicals, chemical products & man-made fibresCoke, petroleum products & nuclear fuelConstructionConventional power plantsEducationElectrical & optical equipmentElectricity distribution
Fabricated metal productsFinancial intermediationFood, beverages & tobaccoHealth & social workHotels & restaurantsHousingLeather & leather productsMineral productsMiningNuclear power plantsPublic admin. & defencePublishing & printing
Pulp, paper & paper productsReal estateRenewable power plantsRubber & plastic productsSocial & personal servicesTextile & textile productsTransport equipmentTransport, storage and communicationWaterWholesale & retail tradeWood & wood products
13
INDUSTRYTransport equipmentElectrical & optical equipmentChemicals, chemical products & man-made fibresRubber & plastic productsWood & wood productsFood, beverages & tobaccoConstructionPulp, paper & paper productsPublishing & printingBasic metalsFabricated metal productsMineral productsCoke, petroleum products & nuclear fuelLeather & leather productsTextile & textile products
SERVICESReal estateHealth & social workTransport, storage and communicationEducationPublic admin. & defenceFinancial intermediationSocial & personal servicesWholesale & retail tradeHotels & restaurants
DWELLINGS
OTHER SECTORSAgricultureMiningConventional power plantsRenewable power plantsNuclearElectricity distributionWater
sectorsdwellings
services
industrynucl.
RE, etc
VPJ @ 2009
14
QuickTime™ and aMotion JPEG OpenDML decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
£ or $?
quantifying stuff: satellite view
15
numbers of houses?
£ or $?
quantifying stuff: satellite view
16
£ or $?
numbers of houses?
m²?
quantifying stuff: satellite view
17
embodied energy?
£ or $?
numbers of houses?
m²?
quantifying stuff: satellite view
18
flow ofstuff
VPJ/y
services£/y
embodied energy
energyPJ/y
stocks ofstuffVPJ
trade in goods
financial account
workingpopulation
capita
transportkm/y
19
data sources
• Blue Book (Office of National Statistics)• Pink Book (Office of National Statistics)• DUKES (BERR)
20
21
employment
22
sector sizes
23
jobs ÷ sector size = employability
24
direct energy use
25
energy efficiency
26
direct energy use
27
output of goods
28
sector investment
29
service demand
30
service demand indices
31
transport
32
primary fuel
33
household consumption
34
GDP
35
CO2
36
balance of payments
37
win-win on the BoP!
38
International Investment Position
39
city trader: fixed interest dealing
“They’re mad!”
40
flow ofstuff
VPJ/y
services£/y
add trade etc.
energyPJ/y
stocks ofstuffVPJ
trade in goods
trade in fuel
financial account
income
BoP£/y
current account transfers
trade in services
workingpopulation
capita
domesticliabilities
£
foreignassets
£
financial account
transportkm/y
income
41
news items
Royal Mail disputeJinjao: CO2
intensity ofenergy
OFGEMconsumer
bills
UK & USAprotect bankers’
bonus
Jinjao: energyintensity of
industry
OFGEMrising gasimports
42
scenarios: hierarchy of drivers
1. employment
2. service provision responds to demand
3. industry investment
4. house building
5. North Sea production
43
scenarios: indices
jobs
energy
service demand
÷
44
services indices
45
reactive: sector investments
46
employability
47
unemployment
48
reactive: GDP
49
reactive: energy efficiency
50
reactive: transport volume
51
reactive: primary fuel
52
fuel prices
53
reactive: balance of payments
54
proactive scenario!
• Energy efficiency: more investment• Renewables: more investment• Transport: aggressive volume reduction
55
proactive: sector investments
56
proactive: energy efficiency
57
proactive: energy types
58
proactive: transport volume
59
proactive: primary fuel
60
proactive: balance of payments
61
scenario observations
• Reactive:• unemployment 4%• growth 1%/y• sterling 1%/y devaluation• CO2 no change
• Proactive:• unemployment 4%• growth 1%/y• sterling holds value• CO2 40% reduction
62
time to zero-carbon?-40% by 2025 possible
tackling systemic questions
increasing oil prices?can "afford" but just reduce km!
demand reduction with growth?allow services to expand
afford more renewables?just reduce consumption a little