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1
Survey Flow Processes: Econstats
Example: Using Quarterly Financial Statistics Survey (QFS) :
Private Sector
Kriss Govinden
Seminar on Developing a programme for the implementation of the
2008 SNA and supporting statistics17-19 October 2012
Pretoria, South Africa
2
The focus of this presentation will be on the Quarterly Financial Statistics survey.
Similar processes / procedures are followed for other surveys within Economics Statistics.
3
Contentsa. Background
b. Work flow chart / value chain
c. Sampling Process
d. Users
e. Data Processing
f. Statistical Release
g. Estimates
h. Key findings
i. Data confrontation
j. Revisions
k. Improvements
l. Limitations
4
1. Selected Financial Information requested:
Income and expenditure Inventories Capital expenditure
Background 1/4
2. Sample Size about 5000, majority large enterprises
3. Measures overall economic activity of enterprises operating in the SA economy
5
Background 2/4
1. Published with a quarter lag * March in June * June in September * September in December * December on March
2. Less detail than the Annual Financial Statistics (AFS) survey
3. Sample changes annually (Size group 1 has highest level of overlap)
4. Turnover is used as the measure of size
6
AgricultureAgriculture
Government statisticsGovernment statistics
Financial intermediation,and insurance
Financial intermediation,and insurance
Background 3/4
7
SIC Industry Levels
2 Mining & quarrying 4 digits
3 Manufacturing 3 digits
4 Electricity, gas and water 2 digits (41 & 42)
5 Construction 1 digit
61 Wholesale trade 2 digits: 61
62 Retail trade 2 digits: 62
63 Motor trade 2 digits: 63
64 Accommodation trade 2 digits: 64
7 Transport 2 digits
8 Business services 2 digits: 83, 84, 85, 86, 87 and 88
9 Community, social & personal services 2 digits: 93, 94, 95, 96 and 99
Background 4/4
Scope and Coverage
8
Input Quarterly Financial Statistics survey process Output
Quarterly Financial Statistics (QFS) value chain
Plan the survey
Design& Development
Data Collection
SIC
Outcome
Processing Analysis
Operating manual
Plan
Stats SA’s strategic plan (themes and objectives)
Human resources
Government priorities &
legal framework
Compile Publication
and products
Determine data collection
methods and instruments
Systems design and
documentation
Completing questionnaires from financial statements
Implement analysis systems
on raw data
Compile final tables and
graphs
Determine data items to be collected
Sample design
Questionnaire printing, dispatch
and follow ups
Quality checking
Evaluate and validate
Compile key findings
Staff training
Collect and follow up
System implementing
Quality checking: Data
confrontation with other survey
areas:-Manufacturing, wholesale and retail,local gvnt
Notes and glossaryCapturing and
editing
Compile CDs
Resources
Checking and editing completed
questionnaires
Questionnaire design
Determine Stakeholder
needs
Determine Sampling Frame,
sample size
Mark-off on the SMS
SampleSDI
FinanceProgramme Office & MIS
National Accounts
HCDProgramme Office & MIS
Systems of Registers
ADAPT
Trade and Industry Executive
managers
Stats SA
Government
Stats SA users
Staff
HRMIT
Marketing
Trade and Industry
M & EM & E
ITHRM
National Accounts
Regional and provincial
offices
IT
SIS (Printing & Distribution)
International Community
IT
M & E
Employment Stats
Provincial Government component
M & E and external
consultants
Financial Stats managers
DDGSIS
IT resources
Financial resources
SDLC
Check list
Determine data collection and
processing systems
Design, develop and test analysis
systems
Progress reports and monitor progress
Tabulation Plan
SARB
Quality checking
Approval by managers and
Q&M
Run the estimates and
imputationsStaff recruitment
Documentation
DocumentationDocumentation
Documentation
Business register
Estimation Programs
from M & E
National Accounts
Government
Users & Researchers
M & E
SARB
Questionnaire Impact on:
Statistical Release
containing private sector
statistics by industry
Documents
Analysis systems
Updated SMS system
Capturing systems
Planning
Policy Makers
Decision Making
Governance
Economic Growth
Stats SA Credibility
Empower Staff
Electronic products
Work flow chart / value chain 1/2
9
Input Quarterly Financial Statistics survey process Output
Quarterly Financial Statistics (QFS) value chain
Evaluate & review
Impact on:
Outcome
Budget
Plan
Stats SA’s strategic
themes and objectives
Human resources
Government priorities &
legal framework
Statistical Release
containing private sector
statistics by industry
Electronic products
Policy Makers
Decision Making
Governance
Economic Growth
Revise documentation
Finalise MIS
Evaluate process
Staff performance evaluation
SDIResearchersFinance
Programme Office & MIS
HRMProgramme Office & MIS
Reserve Bank
Stats SA
Government
Stats SA users
Staff
IT
International Community
Stats SA Credibility
DDG
HRM
M & E
IT resources
Financial resources
National Accounts
Compile or review Operating
Manual
Dissemination
Press conference
Post to the Web
SIS (Printing & Distribution)
SG Support (Communication)
Print the release
Distribute hard copies to regular
users
Programme Office & MIS
Attending to queries
Work flow chart / value chain 2/2
10
Sampling Process
Business Sampling Frame
Snapshot
Snapshot analysis and inputs
Common Main Frame
Financial Frame
Annual Samples
Containing updated information
(monthly VAT updates)
According to specifications
Estimates on National Level
11
Internal users:
1. National accounts
2. Other internal users Quarterly employment statistics
Uses:
a. Compilation of supply use tablesb. Identify trendsc. QFS is the only source of quarterly financial datad. Information on capital formatione. Used to complement or
compensate for other data sources
a. Data confrontationb. Sectoral analysesc. Financial analyses
Users: Internal
12
External users:
1. SARB
2. Government
3. Researchers
4. Respondents
5. Other users
Uses:
a. Information on capital formation
a. Monitoringb. Policy makingc. National Treasury
a. Macro-economic forecastingb. Industry analysis e.g. SA German Chamber of
Commerce
a. Aveng Africa Ltd (formerly Grinaker LTA) – Evaluation of industry performance
b. Kellogg SA – Identify trends and performance of other industries
c. SA Breweries and Unilever SA – Evaluation of market share
a. Universities
Users: External
13
Data Processing
Quality Checks and
data validation
Quality Checks
Data validation
Data analysis
Data confrontation
Various
Data cleaning
+
Statistical Release
14
Statistical Release
1. Key findings
2. Data comparisons
3. Estimates on industry levels
4. Selected ratios
5. Explanatory and technical notes
6. Glossary
15
Estimates 1/31 . Estimates presented on one digit SIC levels
Item
Quarter ended
Change between quarters
ended
March 2012 and
June 2012
Year on year change
between
June 2011 and
June 2012
R million
June
2011
September 2011
December 2011
March
2012
June
2012
Income items
Turnover received 110 604 113 739 125 525 112 328 112 836 508 2 232
Interest received 1 666 1 484 1 868 1 333 2 709 1 376 1 043
Dividends received 328 833 391 389 792 403 464
Royalties, franchise fees, copyright, trade names and patent rights received 83 11 17 17 26 9 -57
Rental/leasing of land, buildings and other structures received 19 17 14 17 16 -1 -3
Hiring/leasing of plant, machinery, vehicles and other equipment received 218 632 337 167 131 -36 -87
Profit on assets/investment sold or revalued 2 199 4 648 3 922 3 982 3 489 -493 1 290
Other income 4 695 3 281 2 925 2 386 2 478 92 -2 217
Total income 119 812 124 645 134 999 120 619 122 477 1 858 2 665
16
Estimates 2/3
Item
All industries
Large Medium Small Total
Range for classification of small, medium and large enterprises based on Turnover. Source: National Small Business Amendment Bill - DTI 2003
Income items
Turnover 939 119 126 765 316 256 1 382 140
Interest 7 827 472 930 9 229
Dividends 4 799 46 40 4 885
Royalties, franchise fees, copyright, trade names and trade and patent rights 996 9 240 1 245
Rental/leasing of land, buildings and other structures received 1 478 93 1 170 2 741
Hiring/leasing of plant, machinery, vehicles and other equipment received 1 937 261 900 3 098
Profit on assets/investment sold or revalued 7 840 600 719 9 159
Other income 16 974 2 167 2 389 21 530
Total income 980 970 130 413 322 644 1 434 027
2 . Estimates presented on small, medium and large levels
17
Estimates 3/3
3 . Estimates available on lower SIC levels
Category Turnover Sales Services Interest
MINING OF COAL AND LIGNITE 29 351 28 044 1 307 403
EXTRACTION OF CRUDE PETROLEUM 2 846 2 841 5 163
MINING OF GOLD AND URANIUM ORE 15 111 14 982 129 113
2410 17 020 15 773 1 247 49
2421 3 181 2 934 247 50
2422 2 110 2 110 0 5
2423 2 418 2 418 0 288
2424 26 102 26 071 31 257
2429 1 358 1 260 98 41
2511 186 186 0 1
2512 258 243 15 1
2519 1 369 1 312 58 7
18
The total turnover of all industries for the second quarter of 2012 was estimated atR1 586 641 million (R1,59 trillion), an increase of 2,7% compared with the revised first quarter of 2012 (R1 545 094 million or R1,55 trillion).
Increases1. Electricity, gas and water, +20.8%, (R6 165 million);2. Construction, +7.8%, (R4 813 million);3. Trade, +2.7%, (R14 701 million);4. Manufacturing, +2.3%, (R11 170 million);5. Transport, storage and communication, +2.2%, (R3 092 million);6. Real estate and other business services (excluding financial intermediation and
insurance), +1.5%, (R2 135 million); and 7. Mining and Quarrying, +0.5%, (R508 million).
Decreases1. Community, social and personal services (excluding government institutions), -2.4%, (R1 037 million).
Key findings 1/7
19
Key findings 2/7
Comparison of turnover by industry
20
Key findings 3/7Comparison of turnover by industry for the quarters ended March 2012 and June 2012
21
Key findings 4/7
Comparison of turnover by industry for the quarters ended June 2011 and June 2012
22
Quarterly turnover estimate for all industries
Key findings 5/7
23
Comparing ratios between March 2012 and June 2012
Industry
Interest coverage ratio (Net profit Before interest and income tax
Expenses/Interest expenses)
Inventory turnover ratio(Turnover/Closing stocks)
March 2012
June 2012
March 2011
June2012
Mining and Quarrying 7,46 8,54 2,14 1,96
Manufacturing 7,17 6,95 1,90 1,95
Electricity, gas and water 0,79 4,18 2,96 3,55
Construction 2,67 4,64 9,18 9,34
Trade 6,34 5,91 2,58 2,67
Transport, storage and communication 4,82 5,28 10,90 10,08
Real estate and other business services 2,90 3,73 15,08 15,28
Community, social and personal services 9,51 5,67 16,53 15,86
All industries 4,93 5,54 2,78 2,83
Key findings 6/7
24
• Improvement in the interest coverage between June and March 2012
reflects a positive signal that enterprises have generated more revenue
during the June 2012 to satisfy their interest obligation.
• The increase in turnover ratio indicates that inventory effectively
generated more turnover during the June 2012 quarter as compared to
the March 2012 quarter (inventory movement is starting to improve
between the June and March 2012 quarters).
Comparing ratios between March 2012 and June 2012
Key findings 7/7
25
Data confrontation
Data confrontation
The following sources were used to verify or confront data:
1. Monthly surveys – mining (including correspondence with Department of Minerals and Energy), manufacturing, electricity and trade industries
2. Previous published quarters of the QFS
3. GDP
4. Salaries and wages variable with QES data
5. Media reports
6. Financial statements
7. Internet
26
Revisions
Major reasons for revisions in previous quarter’s estimates
1. Late submission of the data.
2. Revised information received.
3. Changes in weights (design weights and non-response).
4. IFRS adjustments made to previously received data.
27
YEAR PUBLICATION IMPROVEMENTS PUBLISHED TIMEFRAME
2011
&
2012
Sample size: about 5000
More detailed SIC
1. Estimates of small, medium and large enterprises.
2. Extensive improvement to the clearance document and QFS processes.
3. On-going provision of flash estimates to National Accounts at 75% response rate.
4. Publication of employment cost.
5. Parallel Sample.
6. Flash estimates to national account and South African Reserve Bank at 65% response rate.
7. Collection, processing and publication of the new sample.
8. Interaction with SARB.
9. Interaction with the GDP Expenditure team.
10. Actual values to South African Reserve Bank on overlapping units.
Quarterly Quarter lag
Improvements
28
Limitations
1. Not covering the whole economy (excludes agriculture, hunting, fishing and forestry, financial intermediation, insurance and pension funding and government institutions).
2. Not activity based but industry based.
3. No regional estimates available.
4. Structure of enterprises can vary.
5. BSF challenges including: duplication; classification; weights.
29
Thank You
Questions?