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some consequences for individual and social life qualities in Ethiopia

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an ethical quandary for donors

DSA Conference, London, November 2010

Philippa BevanMokoro Ltd and Visiting Research Fellow, University of Bath

Inter-acting, competing and evolving models of ‘wellbeing’ in development policy in Ethiopia 2003-10:

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Outline of the presentation

1. Development aid to Ethiopia 1990 - 2010

2. Social and individual life quality in Ethiopia in 2003

3. The politics of development policy design in Ethiopia 2003-10

4. Some changes in social and individual life quality in Ethiopia between 2003 and 2010

5. Government and donor understandings of ‘wellbeing’ in the design of Ethiopia’s development policies 2003-10

6. Longer-term impacts of aid to Ethiopia 2003-10 and the donors’ ethical quandary

7. The bigger picture – donors have other hats: the ‘war on terror’, a changing global economy, fiscal stringency and aid, international human rights advocacy

8. The ethical quandary and what should development studies academics advise donors to do now?

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Development aid to Ethiopia 1990 - 2010

Source: OECD DAC database (ODA is expressed in millions, constant 2007 USD), reference is made to actual disbursement. MOFED 2010 p44

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The situation in 2003(ish):

macro traces of social and individual life quality

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Social and individual life quality in Ethiopia in 2003(ish): a few macro traces (1)

• Socio-economic security– 42.2% of households living on less than $0.5 per day– 20-25% of Ethiopians in chronic poverty– 12.6 million in need of food aid (2003 was a bad drought year)– Multi-Poverty Index (OPHI) poverty – 90% (2005)

• Human development– Gross primary school enrolment (2004) – 79.8%– Literacy rate – 29.2 (2000)– Under-5 mortality (2005) – 167 per 1000; (infant mortality 2005) – 77 per

1000 births– Maternal mortality (2005) – 673 per 100,000 live births

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Social and individual life quality in Ethiopia in 2003(ish): a few macro traces

• Social inclusivity

– Gini coefficient = 0.30 (cf 61 for Botswana)

– Regional inequalities in household poverty

• e.g. 66% Gambella; 32% Oromia (2005)

– Spatial differences in chronic poverty• bigger towns • highly populated drought-prone areas with especially low landholdings• pastoralist areas

– Social differences in chronic poverty:• landless• female-headed households • elderly • disabled • chronically ill • urban squatters

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Social individual life quality traces in Ethiopia in 2003 (continued)

• Social cohesion– Many ethnic groups – some crossing national boundaries with Eritrea, Somalia,

Kenya and Sudan

– All ‘emerging Regions’ had ethnic conflicts/ tensions in 2003

– Ethnic federalism and decentralisation beginning to offer incentives to mobilise around ethnic identity

– Mix of religions: Orthodox Christian, Sufi Muslim, Protestant, Catholics, Islamist, customary

– Many rural communities have ethnic mixes and most have religious mixes; mostly different groups lived relatively peacefully

• Social empowerment– 1995 Constitution and some practices

• ethnic federalism • human rights • women’s rights• elections – 2000 ‘neither free nor fair’

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The politics of development policy design in Ethiopia

N.B. This section relies heavily on a paper written by Catherine Dom – Macro Level Policies, Programmes and Models Entering Rural Communities 2003-9

http://www.wed-ethiopia.org/wide3.htm

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The politics of development policy design in Ethiopia since 1998:the aid relationship

• 1998-2000: Donor-government disagreements over the war with Eritrea

• 2000 election – government won decisively – ‘neither free nor fair’

• 2001-2: Re-design of the aid relationship – the I-PRSP

• 2002/3: extreme drought – emergency food aid

• 2002-5: The establishment of aid and debt relief relationships based on PRSPs and the MDGs – the SDPRP

• 2005 election – government may have lost

• 2008 and 2009: extreme droughts in different parts of the country – emergency food aid

• 2006-10: An aid-supported 'Big Push' to meet the MDGs - the PASDEP

• 2010 election – government won all but 2 Parliamentary seats

• 2011 and beyond: donor influence in decline – the GTP

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The politics of development policy design in Ethiopia since 2003: main donor activities 1

• Donor programmes– Budget support + policy dialogue (GBS replaced with PBS in 2006)

– Food aid/social protection (PSNP1 launched in 2005 and regular emergency food aid)

– Bilateral programmes/projects (notably USAID, Germany, EU, UK)

• Economy/livelihoods– Aid for infrastructure

– Policy dialogue – enabling framework for private sector, migration = economic opportunity, move from top-down control to adaptation, responsiveness, diversity and strong accountability, strengthen independent credit markets

– Productive Safety Net Programme for households in selected drought-prone areas; policy dialogue – risk management, long term social protection strategy,

• Human development policy - human re/pro/duction– Aid mainly for primary education; policy dialogue – quality of education, government shift to

post-primary detrimental to primary; dropout problems related to Technical and Vocational Education and Training Programme

– Aid for health sector plans; policy dialogue – exaggerated expectations (e.g. maternal health) and lack of attention to support systems

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The politics of development policy design in Ethiopia since 2003: main donor activities 2

• Society – social re/pro/duction– Policy dialogue related to de-centralisation – role for NGOs in education and

democratisation and concerns about proclamation (bill) to control externally-funded NGO advocacy

– Multi-donor Civil Society Support Programme designed in 2010

• Governance – community management– Macro-level – Democratic Institutions Programme designed– Public Sector Capacity Building– From 2005 a social accountability component in the Protection of Basic Services

programme: – Policy dialogue – need to address the ‘demand’ side of governance; 2010 election-

related concerns about political uses of aid and human rights abuses

• Culture – ideas – Aid for infrastructure improves access to information– Policy dialogue – government decentralisation and empowerment programme without a

policy for access to information

• Inequality– Women – include specific gender-focused affirmative action (mainstreaming +)

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The politics of development policy design in Ethiopia since 2003: main government activities 1

• Economy/livelihoods– Poverty reduction and growth (change in emphasis from first to second)

– Agricultural Development Led Industrialisation; more emphasis on commercialisation after 2005

– Roles for extension services, co-operatives (marketing, financial services), and model farmers

– Address chronic nature of food insecurity: productive safety net plus household asset building (area-specific packages + government subsidised credit) = graduation; resettlement

• Human development policy - human re/pro/duction– Education - from 2000 start the shift to post-primary; later TVET and new universities

– Health - new focus on Health Extension Programme (preventive health delivered by trained female HEWs through sixteen packages)

• Society– Eradicate ‘Harmful Traditional Practices’

– Latterly - use community-initiated organisations to implement development programmes

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The politics of development policy design in Ethiopia since 2003: main government activities 2

• Governance – government and party (EPRDF) activities– De-centralisation – new wereda and kebele structures – councils, cabinets, multi-level sub-

kebele structures, kebele manager, extension workers, teachers– After 2005 party recruitment drive and cell structure– Campaign approach; targets for government employees and postholders– ‘Civil society’ = mass organisations (women’s and youth associations) and women’s and youth

leagues (party members)– Good governance package following 2005 election – in Amhara Region people no longer to be

forced (fines/imprisonment) to attend meetings/participate in community work– Gimgema system – regular public criticism by self and others

• Culture - ideas– Clamp-down on media 2008; jamming of Voice of America 2010– Persuasion through meetings – (1) called by the kebele and more recently (2) party

propaganda meetings (twice a month)– Party training for key workers (teachers, health workers, kebele officials, some farmers)

• Inequality– National Action Plan on Gender Equality 2006; Youth development plan– Twenty-year women and children sector development plan 2008

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Some changes in life quality in Ethiopia: 2003-10

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Some changes in life quality in Ethiopia: 2003-10 (1)

• To what extent can we trust the data?

• Socio-economic security

• Human development

2003% living on less

than $0.5 per day

2006% below the

poverty line

2010% below the poverty line

42.2% 34.6% 29.2% (estimated)

Date 2010 (estimates)

Gross primary enrolment 79.8% (2004) 95.6%

Literacy rate 29.2% (2000) 36%

Under-5 mortality rate 167 per 1000 101 per 1000

Under-1 mortality rate 77 per 1000 45 per 1000

Maternal mortality rate 673 per 100,000 (2005) 600 per 100,000

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Some changes in life quality in Ethiopia: 2003-10 (2)

• Social inclusivity– Overall Gini coefficient – a slight increase from 0.28 to 0.304– Rural inequality – no change in Gini (0.26)– Urban inequality – from 0.38 to 0.44– No comparison possible - only data on regional or social differences in

poverty from 2005– Primary education – Gender Parity Index change from 0.87 in 2005 to

0.93 in 2010

• Social cohesion– No noticeable evidence of improvements or deterioration in social

cohesion

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Some changes in life quality in Ethiopia: 2003-10 (3)

• Social empowerment– Ethnic federalism still in place

– Election 2010 – only 1 opposition party seat out of 547 – and 1 Independent

– Human rights • increasing recognition of some economic and social rights for some including

rural women

• clamp down on political rights leading up to the election

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Comparison of conceptions of ‘wellbeing’ in government and development discourses

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Comparison of conceptions of ‘wellbeing’ in government and donor development discourses (1)

• Wellbeing related to livelihoods

– Similar big economic wellbeing goals – move people out of poverty; economic growth; increased economic activity by women and youth

– Profound disagreements about means

Government Donors

Government-designed extension packagesUse of Model Farmers, Model Households and Model CommunitiesCampaignsService and producer co-operativesRuling Party-related private sector

Economy freed from top-down controls to allow entrepreneurs to respond to market conditionsGovernment role to enable and regulatePrivate sector should be independent of government and political parties

Rural residents = peasants/farmers or pastoralistsRegarded as 'lacking awareness' and needing to be persuaded and coerced into adopting modern techniques and practices (peasants) and settling (pastoralists)

Rural residents = rational economic agents who will respond to market incentives

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Comparison of conceptions of ‘wellbeing’ in government and donor development discourses (2)

• Wellbeing related to human re/pro/duction

– Agreement that improvements in human wellbeing require improvements in access to health, education and other basic services

– Both emphasise the contributions this will make to economic development

• Societal wellbeing

– Does not figure much in either discourse

– GTP 2010 refers to ‘building a national consensus to ensure one economic and political community’

– Donor comment – it is also necessary to accommodate diversity

– Donors – no interest in the social organisation of communities; support NGOs

– Government – community social cohesion vision has the party at its core; suspicious of NGOs

– Both are keen to reduce the economic and political exclusion of women

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Comparison of conceptions of ‘wellbeing’ in government and donor development discourse (3)

• Wellbeing related to governance– Agreement that mobilisation of the community to fight corruption would

improve wellbeing– Disagreement about the structures and processes to be put in place to

achieve this– Government – gimgema system which is institutionalised in the party-

infiltrated bureaucracy– Donors – improve accountability to citizens through empowerment and

improving ‘voice’ – budget-posting, citizen report cards and kebele councils– Government – importance of political stability and raising awareness and

mobilisation of community members to adopt government development programmes

– Government – need for leadership from a vanguard party– Donors – separation of bureaucracy and party; more ‘bottom-up’

approaches’; increased space for media and civil society (NGO sector)– Government – keen to advance civil society but membership-based

organisations rather than NGOs

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Comparison of conceptions of ‘wellbeing’ in government and donor development discourses (4)

• Cultural wellbeing– Government – change the mindsets and attitudes of ‘unaware’ peasants

which is the task of officials

– One aspect is the elimination of the beliefs that support ‘Harmful Traditional Practices’; some of these are economically inefficient while others are related to gender inequality

– Donors have not had much to say about cultural wellbeing apart from a concern that ‘access to information’ should be increased

• Whole-person wellbeing– Both government and donors favour increasing equality for women

– Government – ‘unleashing the potential of Ethiopia’s women’ will raise economic wellbeing

– Donors – concur in this but also see it as promoting human wellbeing which is a human rights issue

– The GTP refers to social welfare – including for elderly people

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Longer-term impacts of aid on wellbeing in Ethiopia 2003-10

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Ethiopia economic growth 2003 - 2011

-3.8

8.0

-1.0

-11.4

3.8

10.0

13.9

16.7

10.111.4

11.611.1

7.08.0

11.8

5.5

10.9

13.5

9.4

7.56.0

3.5

10.910.4

11.0

9.48.7

8.0 9.5

4.9

10.28.6

9.8

12.912.7

3.8

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Years

% r

eal c

hang

e

Real GDP growth Agriculture Industry Services

Longer-term impacts of aid on wellbeing in Ethiopia 2003-10

– Poverty reduction estimated (by government) from 42% to 29% between 2003 and 2010

• Economic wellbeing – contributions to– Economic growth

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Longer-term impacts of aid on wellbeing in Ethiopia 2003-10 (2)

• Human wellbeing – contributions to

– Improvements in health through investment in preventive and curative services

– Increased access to education

– Increased access to a wider world and new ideas

• Social wellbeing – contributions to– NGO and CBO formation

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Longer-term impacts of aid on wellbeing in Ethiopia 2003-10 (3)

• Political wellbeing – contributions to– The opening up of a political space for opposition parties, political debate

and voter choice before the elections of 2005

– The closing down of the political space before the elections of 2010

– Individual experiences of increasing political interference in economic and other activities

• Cultural wellbeing – contributions to

– Improvements in ‘access to information’

• Whole-person wellbeing – contribution to

– Mainstreaming of women’s issues across government activities– Improvements in mother and child health

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The donors’ ethical quandary

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The donors’ ethical quandary (1)

• Signs of economic development

• Improved and improving human development services

• Regular droughts do not lead to famine

BUT• Progression, particularly since 2005, towards a one-party state

– Inter-twining of party and civil service structures

– At least some opportunities for training and promotion of civil servants, extension workers and teachers linked to party membership

– Party penetration of rural communities

– Restrictions on press freedom – journalists jailed

– Restrictions on NGO activities

– Harassment of opposition party members

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The donors’ ethical quandary (2)

• Human Rights Watch

Except for a brief period during the 2005 general election, the government has severely restricted the rights to freedom of expression and association, arbitrarily detained political opponents, intimidated journalists, shuttered media outlets, and made independent human rights and elections monitoring practically impossible. Citizens are unable to speak freely, organize political activities, or challenge government policies without fear of reprisal. Key state institutions and representative bodies, such as parliament and woreda and kebele councils, have become politicized and fallen under the ruling party’s control.

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The donors’ ethical quandary (3)

• Government response to the HRW reports

Human Rights Watch has been involved in a vitriolic campaign to tarnish Ethiopia’s image for a long time now, concentrating on the electoral process, churning out report after report with a view to influencing the conduct and outcome of the voting. ….While it is regrettable that HRW’s allegations may dent Ethiopia’s image unnecessarily, HRW’s efforts to try to bring a halt to aid programmes that are successfully assisting millions of people must surely be seen as a despicable and unwarranted attack on Africa.

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The donors’ ethical quandary (4)

• A recent donor statement

– ‘…building institutions, public and private, that assure every citizen’s right to and effective delivery of public services takes a long time; indeed, it never ends, as we can see even in the most industrialized countries. Changes are incremental, and at times they may suffer serious setbacks. It is, therefore, crucial that development partners work with the long-term process of change, always in support of it, not in control of it (which is impossible in any case).’ Ken Ohashi, World Bank Country Director, Ethiopia

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The ethical quandary – what has development studies to offer?examples of distant thoughts about wellbeing, values and morality

• Competing values – Dying babies versus freedom of expression?

– What kind of wellbeing?

– Whose wellbeing? When?

• Whose judgment?

– Are there any moral universals?

– Is HRW behaving morally?

– Who's is to say?

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The bigger picture – ‘donors’ have other hats

the ‘war on terror’

a changing global economy

fiscal stringency and aid

international human rights advocacy

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The bigger picture – international politics

• ‘Al Qaeda’, Somalia and the US

– ‘USAID contributes directly to the achievement of U.S. Government objectives in Ethiopia as outlined in the State Department/USAID Joint Strategic Plan. U.S. national interests in Ethiopia include: counterterrorism; economic prosperity and security; democracy and human rights; and regional stability’ (USAID website, 2010).

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The bigger picture – the global economy

• China – investment and aid – and a congenial political system

– China has invested $2.5 billion in Ethiopia, mostly in infrastructure.

– trade between Ethiopia and China is increasingly what matters. It was worth $800m in the first six months of this year, up by 27% on last year. (Economist, 21 October 2010)

• Inward investment – aka ‘land-grabbing’

– Ethiopia will lease a land area about the size of Belgium to private investors for growing rice, cotton and other crops aimed at generating foreign-exchange, an Agriculture Ministry official said.

– The government is advising American, Canadian, Chinese, Ethiopian and Indian investors to grow “high value” crops including soya beans, palm oil and bio-fuels, rather than cereals, to help feed the approximately 13 million Ethiopians that require some form of food aid, Abera said.

– “If we get money we can buy food anywhere,” he said. “Then we can solve the food problem.” (Bloomberg, 26 October 2010)

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The bigger picture – fiscal stringency and aid and the human rights movement

• Human Rights Watch

– 'One Hundred Ways of Putting Pressure': Violations of Freedom of Expression and Association in Ethiopia, March 2010

– ‘Development without Freedom: How Aid Underwrites Repression in Ethiopia, October 2010

– Lobbying and publicisation in donor home territories

• Fiscal stringency and aid budgets

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The donors’ ethical quandary revisited

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The ethical quandary revisited-what has development studies to offer? empirical social science (1)

• Levels of personal suffering in Ethiopia are huge

• Consequences are more important than principles

• Ethiopia is a spatially (Horn of Africa) and historically (2010) located evolving complex social system

– With GDP per capita in 2003 equivalent to that of the UK in the late 1500s (Pritchett, 2010)

– In this context interacting people and human, economic, social, political, cultural processes generate a stream of human and social ‘outcomes’

• The context is one of internal, regional and global structured political and economic competition

• People are spatially- and historically- located culturally-embedded genderaged animals with short life spans

– With social roles

– With some goals which harm others

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The ethical quandary revisited-what has development studies to offer? empirical social science (2)

• Ethics for well-meaning donors working in such evolving complex social systems/countries should:

– Adopt a long-term perspective; consider ‘unintended consequences’

– Therefore establish an institutionalised memory about such countries

– In the long-run prioritise the wellbeing of the weakest members

– Base decisions on knowledge of how the system works and how its context works – from development social science

– Base decisions on knowledge of where the system has come from and scenarios of where it may be going – informed by similar scenarios about the past and future of the context – from development social science

– Focus on means/processes before goals/outcomes – using development social science

– Be smart – identify connections and entry and high leverage points – using development social science

– Be flexible – adapting to evolving and sudden changes as they occur – using development social science