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Session: Adaptation, Stakeholders, and Linking to Decision Making Second AIACC Regional Workshop for Latin America and the Caribbean

Regente Palace Hotel, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 24-27 August 2004

Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in

Mexico and Argentina AIACC LA-29

“Stakeholder interaction on issues of climate vulnerability: illustrations from

Cordoba Province, Argentina and Coatepec, Veracruz.” Hallie Eakin – Monica Wehbe

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Stakeholder Interaction FrameworkAssessment of Social Vulnerability to Climate V&C

Why Involve Stakeholders?

Social Vulnerability

is about

Social Actors

Integrated Assessment

requires actors’ own

Perceptions

and engagement

[Climate Risks ; Adaptive Capacity]

Climate Conditions System Attributes

Risk Perception Adaptations

Decision Making

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“Perception of climate signal is first step in adaptation process” (Risbey, 1999)

Ambition of research to be relevant to decision-making at farm & policy-level

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AIACC LA-29 Project Objectives

• What climate events and threats are most critical for the production units in each region of study?

• How is climate perceived and impacts experienced?

• How are farmers’ responses and adaptation opportunities affected by the political-economic context?

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Map of stakeholders: ArgentinaSocial Actors Description

Project Presentation

FacilitatorInstitutional Analysis

Primary Information

Project Devolution

Local Government Represent. X Meetings/Survey In-depth Int.

X

Prov. Min .of Agriculture Represent. X Policies AEL

CRInsurance

Nat. Inst. of Agric Tech. Local Represent. X c/r activities Sol.Insu.

Nat. Animal Health Min. Local Represent. X

Arg. Agrarian Federation Local Represent. X In-depth Int. c/r activities X

Argentine Rural Society Local Represent. X X

Road Consortium Local X c/r activities X

Agriculture Cooperatives Local X Surv./ In-depth Int.

Tech. Schools on Agric. Local X Survey

Emergency response X

FARMERS X Surv./ In-d. Int X

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Main objectives from different ways of interaction

• Project Presentation Meetings: to make first contact with Stk, to inform about the Project and goals, to know about concerns and expectations, to provoke their interest and to encourage them to participate.

• Survey: to gather primary information on farmers’ sensitivity to climate & resources for adaptation.

• In-depth Interviews: To get insight on farmers’ climate risk perceptions & on their process of decision making.

• Group Discussions: To deepen knowledge on diff. social actors concerns related to climate.

• First Devolution Meetings: To get a feed back from diff. social actors on Project’s preliminary results

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Results of Project Presentation Meetings

• These meetings were highly useful as an introduction with social actors in each of the locations and,

• They enabled to create strong ties for a shared responsibility towards the Project

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First Presentation Meeting at Oncativo City

October 2002

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Results of Group Discussions

• History of each locality• How climate problems are

perceived by farmers and local officials

• What have been past responses to climate and development concerns

• Indirect implications of climate on local economy and production

• Expectations of the project

•

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Figure 1

29,1

45,1

52,2

54,918,7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Insured Not insured

%

Cattle

Mixed

Crops

In-depth interviews w/farmers

Perceptions of climate risk

?

Interview with

public officialsINTA

No insurance

Problems in public programs

Some insurance

Conclusion: Objective analysis must leave a margin for more subjective aspects to be incorporated at the moment of defining policies or presenting alternatives

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Survey

Results of Integration of different sources of information

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What we learned

• How farmers feel in relation to their sensitivity to climate• Which are the factors (resources, adaptations...) they

count on to cope with climate• What are farmers’ perceptions of climate risks and the

process of decision making towards reducing impacts• How local governments & organizations perceive climate

is affecting in their areas• To what extent higher governmental levels perceive

current policies to be appropriate to enhance AC of farmers

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Stakeholders in the Coffee StudySTAKEHOLDERS Interviews Workshops Surveys

INIFAP (Ag. Research) X X

SAGARPA (Ag. Programs) X

SEDESOL (Social Service) X

CONAFOR (Forestry) X

SEMARNAT (Environment) X

Exporters (Coffee Market) X

Large commercial farmers X X

Coffee associations X X

Politicians (Mayor) X

Community leaders X X X

Academics X X

Farmers X X XAIACC LA-29

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Stakeholder Activities, Coffee Study

• Maps, calendars, surveys:

– Defining present risks

– Defining existing strategies as foundation for adaptation

• Climate histories, timelines

– Past shocks and stresses

• Focus groups:

– Use of local knowledge to orient and focus climate analysis

– Perceptions of future climate and responsibilities for action

• Presentation of ResultsAIACC LA-29

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Perceptions of Climate Risk

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Climate Events of Most Concern, Ursulo Galván and Vaquería, Veracruz

(survey data 2003)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

HeatDrought

Wind Frost Rain Cold Hail

percent of responses

Household survey, Vaquería and Ursulo Galván, 2003

Threats to Livelihood Security

82

6357

35

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Coffee Prices

Illness

UnemploymentCrop disease

Climate

% of households

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Urban area

Good coffeeValley area, less dryMore shade (banana)Less frost risk Poor soil, sloped

land, more native shade trees

river

waterfall

river

Coffee does not produce wellSoils are dry, land slopedshade is insufficient

Good coffeeNative shade

macadamia

Good coffee

banana

macadamia Affected by nortes

URSULO GALVÁN

CLIMATE RISK AND RESOURCE MAPPING

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ACTIVIDADES E F M A M J J A S O N D Semillero

Preparación de la tierra (limpia, abono) X

Riego de semilla para germinación X

Tapa de hoja de plátano (calentamiento para germinación) X

Germinación (soldadito) X

Pesetilla (dos hojitas) x X X

Naranjillo X X

Preparación de tierra para llenar los bolsas X

Actividades para preparación de vivero (posteo, alambre, techo de hoja de plátano)

X X X

Se arranca naranjillo y se pasa a la bolsa. Selecciona la planta. Se fertiliza (2-3 veces al año)

X X

Vivero: Un año en bolsa X YR1

Labores de la finca X Y2

Acarreo de la planta, hoyar x x X X

Sembrada (< 3 meses) *si hay lluvias buenos

x* X X

Fertilizada (+ 1 mes de siembra) x x X X

Limpias (2 x por año) X X X X

Cosecha (4 cortes max., 2 buenos, 2 regulares) X X x X

Clima

Lluvias ll LL Ll ll LL

Canícula C C

Lluvias intensas (una vez al mes, y 1st viernes de marzo) LI li li

Nortes n n

Granizadas g g g

Heladas

Secas s s T T

Floración f F f

Siniestros

Nortes y vientos ( un vez cada 10 años) N

Granizada G G

Lluvia (no afecta mucho) LL LL

CLIMATE EVENT AND AGRICULTURAL

ACTIVITY CALENDAR

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1970s 1980s 1990s 2003

Area Planted in Coffee

40% 90%Enter IMECAFE

100%IMECAFE

Closes

100%

Area in Other Crops

60%Sugar cane,

maize, orange

10% 0% 0%

Coffee Prices 1988: $89/quintal

(pre-devaluation)

1998: $5/kg 2000: $2.4/kg

2003: $1.2/kg

Other Land Uses

Avocado

Lemon

Citrus

Banana

Farmersbegin abandoning coffee

50% of coffee plantations abandoned

Land Use History and Prices

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Year Event Impact Action

1972 Hail

24 April

“Knocked off the flowers from the coffee trees, 70% of the harvest lost”

“Left to look for work, Government helped to repair roofs, women sold fruit”

1977/78 FrostJan-Feb

“Destroyed the harvest, 100% lost where there was no shade”

“Left to sell bananas, oranges, wood, quelites.”

1982-83 NortesJan-Feb

“Knocked down the coffee, about 30% affected”

“Left to sell bananas, lime. The women worked in agriculture”

1994-96 DroughtRains 3 months

late

“The plants dried up. The harvests was less 20%”

“Nothing….”

Climate History and Coping Strategies

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Farm unit

IMECAFE

UPEC

Market

Processors

Knowledgeinformation, resources

1980s

Farm unit

Union, Association,“SSS”

Processors

Market

Knowledge, information, resources

Today Today

Farm unit

Intermediary

Processors

Market

PublicSector

$/ha?

Interview and Focus Group Discussion Results

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10 – 20 hacoffee

Fine timber (Caoba, cedar)

Coffee, macadamiaLemon, lychee nuts

10 years

5 years

Coffee, fruit,decorative ferns

Strategies of Larger Coffee Farms

Land rental tosugar industry

Land sale forsuburban

developmentCoffee

processingand roasting

Packaging andretail sale or

export

Organic Production

Now

Interview data

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What we learned

• What climate impacts were most important to the farmers, and when they were most likely to occur

• Past climate impacts on coffee and farmers’ responses

• The importance of prices in livelihood vulnerability

• Effect of public sector intervention on coping strategies

• Obstacles to adaptation: lack of organization, lack of information, short time horizons

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General Lessons• Importance of physical presence of researchers in study

region• Key stakeholders should be incorporated into project

preparation and design before funding• Climate change is not an institutional priority for many

stakeholders, the issue must be framed according to their interests

• Local institutions are often limited in autonomy and by lack of funding, yet complexity of local vulnerability makes national-level programs less effective

• Difficulty for researchers to work with stakeholders at distinct scales of decision-making

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