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Influence factors for scenario analysis for new environmental

technologies the case for biopolymer technology

Florentine Schwark*

Zurichbergstrasse 18, 8032 ETH Zurich, Switzerland

a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:

Available online 24 December 2008

Keywords:

Scenario analysis

Diffusion theory

Biopolymers

PLA blend technology

a b s t r a c t

New environmental technologies pose significant uncertainties because a clear prediction of their futuredevelopment and application possibilities cannot be made. In order to include different future prospects

in firms and policy-makers planning processes, scenario analysis constitutes a very suitable method.

The characterization of important influence factors is central for informative results of an analysis as they

define the nature and intensity of impacts of a technologys environment. This paper aims at specifying

a classification of influence factors for new technology scenario analysis by including major insights from

diffusion theory. Subsequently, an exemplary application for biopolymer technology is given.

2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

The introduction of new environmental technologies in

production poses significant uncertainties for firms regarding the

technologies future application possibilities [1,2]. Life cycle anal-ysis may lead to expectations of future developments of technol-

ogies. A definite statement about the future cannot, however, be

made in an early stage of the life cycle. Accordingly, a foresight of

the development of new technologies always includes an evalua-

tion of a range of development possibilities.

Scenario analysis is a very suitable foresight method that

comprises the opportunity to include diverse influence factors for

the description of multiple possible future development paths of

a new technology [3]. A clear definition of influence factors for

a scenario analysis is central to this. Yet such a compendium is still

absent from literature. The approach of this paper is to describe

a classification of key influence factors for a scenario analysis for

new technologies (technology scenario analysis) by the inclusion of

the main influence factors of diffusion theory and by the descrip-tion of their interdependencies. As diffusion theory describes the

impact of factors on the development of innovations in a detailed

manner, the results are eminently transferable to the method of

scenario analysis. Consequently, scenario analysis is enriched by

a clearly defined approach to the study of the development of

technologies, including the most important influence factors. This

renders a sound basis for a scenario analysis of technologies

applicable to specific problems.

The results are applied to an exemplary scenario analysis for

a new environmental technology. Technologies to produce

biopolymers, i.e. polymers which are produced from renewable

resources and biodegradable, might have a promising future

development. Forecasts, however, differ considerably[47].The first section of the paper introduces the detailed classifi-

cation of influence factors as to how elements of technology

diffusion can be integrated in this approach. The second section

gives a short example of an application of the new approach for

biopolymer technology. The paper ends with discussion and

conclusion.

2. Theory

Scenario analysis exemplifies a very suitable method of antici-

pating possible future developments of a new technology. Litera-

ture describes the procedure of scenario analysis comprehensively

but while the basis for scenario analysis is the definition of influ-

ence factors in the development of new technologies, it remainsmostly broad and lacks detailed description. Yet a clear determi-

nation of influence factors is crucial for such analysis. In this

context, diffusion theory offers a sound description of factors that

essentially influence the diffusion of a technology. The approach

towards these factors has so far been mainly in an ex post

(descriptive) manner. The key idea of this methodology to combine

scenario analysis and diffusion theory offers the possibility to

employ the factors in an ex ante way as well.

This section describes as a first step the general approach of

scenario analysis and as a second the diffusion theory. Both will be

combined in a third step in which the main influence factors for

scenario analysis for new technologies are described.* Tel.: 41 44 632 8798; fax: 41 44 632 1362.

E-mail address: [email protected]

Contents lists available atScienceDirect

Journal of Cleaner Production

j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / j c l e p r o

0959-6526/$ see front matter 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2008.11.017

Journal of Cleaner Production 17 (2009) 644652
mailto:[email protected]://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09596526http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcleprohttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcleprohttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09596526mailto:[email protected]

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2.1. Scenario analysis: general approach

The uncertainty that concerns technological development and

the development of their business environment convinced many

firms to employ scenario analysis[1]. Ref.[8] defines scenarios as

plausible representations of the future based on sets of internally

consistent assumptions [.] about relationships and processes of

change [.]. This presents scenario planning as the institutional-

ized process of conducting one or more scenario analyses as a

disciplined method for imagining possible futures [9]. This

approach distinguishes scenario analysis from forecasting as the

latter is useful in the short term when predictability of develop-

ments is relatively high and uncertainty quite low owing to the low

probability of disturbing events. In the long term, however, many

developments are not clearly predictable and uncertainty can be

significant [10]. Scenario analysis therefore focuses on the

description of certain and uncertain trends, the underlying causal

processes, and crucial decision points [11]. Hence, scenarios are

more than just the technical output of simulation models, but

they try to interpret such output by identifying patterns and clus-

ters among the various outcomes. In addition, they often include

elements that cannot be formally modeled very easily, such as new

regulations, value shifts or innovations[3].1

There are two approaches to scenario analysis: the normative

and the exploratory approach. The normative approach aims at

characterizing the way to achieve one of a number of possible

future situations (scenarios). The exploratory approach takes past

trends and the status quo as a starting-point, develops different

future states, and analyzes the implications of these scenarios for

strategic decision-making today[8]. This latter approach is applied

in the analysis of future developments of biopolymers. Thus, it is

not the intention to describe explicit steps to attaining a desirable

future as it is in the normative approach. In practice, differing

scenario methods for the exploratory approach exist [12], mainly

varying in the number of steps. These steps can be classified in five

categories, as inFig. 1.

Literature about scenario analysis describes a rather broaddefinition of influence factors. They are usually derived from the

thematic fields of economy, politics, society, technology and

ecology. It lacks, however, especially in the case of new technolo-

gies, a clear description of influence factors that affect the future

development of the technologies.

2.2. Diffusion theory

Diffusion theory analyzes in which ways the use of an innova-

tion spreads throughout a social system[13]. Therefore it examines

the process of up-scaling innovations2 from small-scale to

widespread use [15]. The aim of diffusion theory is to provide

a framework of variables that influence the diffusion of innovations

and their importance to the process of adoption. Hence, theemphasis is not on an exhaustive description of every particularity

of a variables effects[16].

Rogerss early work in Ref. [14]stimulated an era of research in

the diffusion of technologies and is the basis for this analysis,

enriched by the research of additional authors. According to him,

the four main determinants of the diffusion process are those

described inFig. 2.

All four determinants play an important role in the diffusion of

an innovation.In order to identify technological influence factors ex

ante, however, the focus is on the description of the perceived

attributes of an innovation (see Fig. 2). The time factor as an

important linkage to scenario analysis will be reflected mainly in

the conduction of the scenario analysis.

In the matter of diffusion research the absolute newness of an

idea and the objective attributes are less important in comparison

with the perception of newness for an individual who gets hold ofthis idea and develops a subjective attitude towards this innova-

tion. The rationale behind this is that the adoptive behavior of

potential users is widely determined by this perceived newness

[14].3

The variance in the rate of innovation diffusion can be explained

from 49 to 87 per cent by the first five attributes in Fig. 2 [14].

Additionally, perceived risk is often mentioned as an important

innovation attribute [1719]. Assessing the positive or negative

effects of the attributes in general, relative advantage, compati-

bility, triability and observability have a promotional impact on the

diffusion while complexity and perceived risk impede potential

users in adopting an innovation.

Within this list of attributes, relative advantage takes an

outstanding position as it has the largest impact on the diffusion ofan innovation. Therefore the main focus of the analysis is on rela-

tive advantage. It is referred to as the degree to which an inno-

vation is perceived as being better than the idea that it supersedes

[21] and can be measured by the five factors presented in Fig. 2

[14].4

The higher is the satisfaction concerning these factors, the faster

is the adoption and diffusion of an innovation. The type of relative

advantage perceived as the most important for the adopter is

likewise affected by the characteristics of the potential adopters

and thus these characteristics indirectly contribute to the diffusion

possibilities of an innovation[14].

2.3. Scenario analysis for new technologies

Generally, the above-mentioned steps for a scenario analysis

remain valid for a technology scenario analysis. The first step in

a technology scenario is a definition of the technology that needs to

be more closely examined so the technology needs to be described

in terms of the system of technologies that surrounds it[9,25,26].

For the definition of influence factors (step 2 in Fig.1) two kinds,

derived from diffusion theory, are included in technology scenario

analysis, which constitutes the novelty of this approach: general

and technology-specific factors. This classification results from the

assumption that general influence factors have a universal impact

Definition of unit of analysis

Identification of influence factors including

a ranking by importance and uncertainty

Extrapolation of trends, analysis

of the actor roles and strategies etc.

Creation of plausible scenarios

Evaluation and interpretation

of the scenarios for following actions

Fig. 1. Steps in exploratory scenario analysis[8,9].

1 For a critical appreciation of the method of scenario analysis, see [3,10].2

The word innovation is often used synonymously with the word technology[14].

3 Cf. therefore the dictum of the Chicago School of Society [20].4

The amount and degree of detail of innovation characteristics differ in studies.See therefore also[2224].

F. Schwark / Journal of Cleaner Production 17 (2009) 644652 645

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on the analyzed technology as they do on other subjects, while

technology-specific factors, derived from diffusion theory, influ-

ence the analyzed technology in a specific manner. Furthermore,

general influence factors mayalso have an influence on technology-

specific influence factors, such as the possibility that economic

development may influence the perceived economic risk that

a potential adopter faces in the adoption of a technology. The better

the economic development, the more prepared the potential

adopter might be to take the risk, and thus the lower the perceived

risk.

Additional to the external influences, technologies have an

autonomous, evolutionary development, which is not included indiffusion theory. The technology evolves further as a result of

research and development or learning curves, and at some point in

time the technology, or possibly the setof technologies, can be used

for a new application[25,27].

InFig. 3,a composition of the above-described influence areas,

including all main determinants of diffusion as described by[14], is

proposed: in the figure there are two circles around the unit of

analysis which describe the kinds of influence factors in orderof the

degree of generality of influence. In the outer circle general influ-

ence factors describe general evolutions as described in literature

about scenario analysis. These also include society and thereby the

social system in Rogerss diffusion theory. In the inner circle

perceived attributes as technology-specific factors have a specific

influence on the unit of scenario analysis. Additional to the attri-butes, the communication channel is also integrated in this circle as

it is regarded as technology-specific and as being of subjective

nature concerning the perception of the innovation. Time is

included in the internal, autonomous development of the tech-

nology itself.

The element time also dominates the further steps 3 and 4 (cf.

Fig. 1) as the development of the influence factors (depicted in

Fig. 3) is evaluated in the course of the scenario analysis.

To recapitulate, a detailed definition of influence factors for

a scenario analysis for new technologies can be drawn from diffusion

theory. This approachimproves the opportunity to describeforces that

are crucial for the future development of a new technology and to

extrapolate them in order to describe future states of an innovation.

Following this theoretical approach, a scenario analysis for thecase of biopolymers is made in the next chapter.

3. PLA blends and production technology

In general, the demand for plastics has increased during the last

years and this development is likely to continue [4]. The current

level of world consumption is at 180 million tons and is expected to

rise to 258 million tons in 2010. This corresponds to a per capita

consumption of 24.5 kg today and 37 kg by 2010 [28].

Polymers are used for many applications like packaging and

electronics as they have advantageous attributes compared with

other materials, such as low weight, little energy requirement for

production and processing as well as the option for an imme-

diate reuse of production waste [29]. Indeed, the applicationpossibilities of plastics, such as automotive parts that were

formerly made from other materials, have increased during the

last few years.

Most plastics today are made from oil and are non-biodegrad-

able. This poses environmental problems owing to the foreseeable

drop in extraction of fossil fuels and to rising landfills [3032]. In

order to alleviate this problem, recent research and development

efforts succeeded in producing polymers from renewable resources

and polymers that are biodegradable. Some plastics even combine

both characteristics.

3.1. Biopolymers

Biopolymers mainly differ from traditional polymers bya change in the life cycle. The new focus on polymers based on

renewable resources as well as on biodegradable polymers gener-

ates a new tendency of sustainability in the polymer industry[33].

The definition of biopolymers is, however, not uniform in literature

[34].5 Biopolymers can be defined from the input point of view as

polymers that have monomers, which are totally or mainly con-

tained in the biomass, or which can be made from biomass using

bio-technological processes [36]. Also, they can be defined as

biodegradable polymers. The most common definition is the

combination of renewable resources and biodegradability [7,30,37].

In this thesis the latter definition of biopolymers is mostly referred

to unless otherwise described.

Time

The perceived attributes

of innovation

The communication channels

by which the innovation

is distributed

The social system

(influences from the

environment)

Relative advantage

Compatibility

Complexity

Triability

Economic factors

Status aspects of innovations

Decrease in discomfort

Saving of time and efforts

Observability

Perceived risk

Immediacy of reward

Determinants Attributes Elements of relative advantage

Fig. 2. Overview of the main determinants and the most influential attributes [14,1719].

5 For reasons for the long-lasting discussions about a definition, cf. [35].

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Degradable biopolymers in general are an interesting alterna-tive to traditional plastics, especially for applications where recy-

cling is impractical or uneconomical or when the environmental

impact has to be minimized [7,38]. Bioplastics from renewable

origin, either biodegradable or non-biodegradable, were in 2001

still a niche market as they required high efforts for material and

application development [7]. In any case, the biopolymer sector

grows continuously. The European consumption in 2003 was

40,000 tons, which shows a doubling from 2001 [39]. Generally, the

future of bioplastics is controversial and subject to many discus-

sions and studies [7,40]. Owing to this high development uncer-

tainty, the subject of biopolymers and the corresponding

production technology are an interesting topic for scenario

analysis.

For a technology scenario analysis, it is necessary to choosea specific technology. Polylactic acid (PLA) blend technology was

selected as a unit of analysis. PLA is a biopolymer that includes both

characteristics of a biopolymer (renewable raw material and

biodegradability). Blending refines PLA (cf. the next section), and

the blending technology may have considerable development

possibilities.

3.2. PLA and PLA blends

Polylactic acid (PLA) is a degradable aliphatic polyester which

can be completely produced from natural resources [41]. It was

first produced in 1845 [42], and increased R&D efforts have been

made from the 1980s on. Since the start of the production by

NatureWorks6 in 2002, PLA has become the second type ofbiopolymer (on the basis of renewable raw materials) that has been

commercialized and produced on a large scale[43].

3.2.1. Characteristics and applications of PLA today

The production of PLA is effected mostly by fermentation of

plant sugars (starch) into lactic acid, which is then polymerized to

polylactic acid (such as PLA from NatureWorks) [7,32].

PLA and its copolymers7 have excellent properties concerning

their applications in ecological, biomedical and pharmaceutical

applications. The reasons therefore are[42,45]:

- The production from renewable resources (e.g. from maize,wheat, sugar beet)8 and thus less dependency on oil.

- The mechanical properties that are comparable with those of

some traditional polymers (like polyethylene, polypropylene

and polystyrene). Additional unique combinations of other

excellent properties, such as strength, hardness, stiffness,

elasticity, as well as good processability for injection moulding,

extrusion equipment and film-blowing increases the applica-

tion possibilities[49]. The high clarity, the high odor and flavor

barrier, the high moisture barrier and the high resistance to

grease and oil find many applications in packaging [42].

- The degradability in the human body and in the natural

environment.

- The very low toxicity of their degradation products (lactid acid

and its oligomers) in the human body and in naturalenvironments.

The combination of these advantages fosters the diffusion of

PLA. The major disadvantage is its brittleness and its low plastic

elongation.

The physical attributes, hydrolysis and biodegradation behavior

of PLA depend on the alternation of their molecular characteristics

and their ordered structures. The latter can be varied by different

methods, for instance, polymer blending[42]. The word blending

refers to an activity where different polymers are mixed in order to

combine the characteristics of them all [44,50]. Blends still show

many research possibilities for optimizing the combination of

components with the goal of customized materials with optimal

and complex attributes[42,51].Products made of PLA on the market today are prototypes and

pioneers. An overview of the main applications of PLA is given in

Table 1:

Theglobal market for PLAblends grows continuously. The global

market for PLA was in 2001 farlower than 4000 t.p.a. In 2003/2004,

the PLA market for films and non-woven/fibre products was about

122,000 t.p.a.[43].

Generally, application possibilities of PLA blends are strongly

influenced by their production costs, which have been very high

owing to their complex chemical composition but tend to

converge to those of petro-based polymers, partly because of the

high oil price[37,38,42,43,54]. Recent developments in producing

Relative advantage

Complexity Compatibility

Triability

Observa-

bility

Perceived

risk

Natural environment

General technologyEconomy

Politics

Society

Technology

in the future

Technology

today

Internal development by

R&D, learning curve etc.

Communication

channel

Fig. 3. Schematic illustration of the influence factors on a new technology including autonomous development (own illustration).

6 NatureWorks was at that time still called Cargil Dow.7

Copolymers are polymers whose molecular chains consist of different mono-mers (molecules)[44]. 8 Cf. therefore also[4648].


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PLA at lower costs have been successful (US$ 12 per kg) and will

thus accelerate their use as commodity plastics[38,42]. Therefore

successful commercialization of PLA blends faces a major chal-

lenge in efficient processing and resulting cost reductions

[4,37,40].

3.3. PLA blend technology

Technology to produce PLA blends includes for this scenario

analysis the production process (machinery) itself as well as the

type of production sites where the machinery is located. The

approach therefore comprises also the size and nature of theproducing company.

Blending in general has the goal of cost-efficiently developing

new types of polymers that combine the positive characteristics of

the components and eliminate the less positive ones [55]. As

described above, the physical properties of PLA depend mainly on

chemical and phase structures which can be adjusted through

changes in polymerization and processing conditions. One possi-

bility of achieving this is by blending. Blending is more rapid and

cost-efficient than other methods (e.g. chemical modification). One

possibility to improve the mechanical properties of PLA is the usage

of plasticizers to enhance processability, flexibility and ductility

[41]. For biodegradable applications, the second component also

needs to be biodegradable, which makes the process in some cases

less economically attractive[49].There are different types of blending technology. As a scenario

analysis for a particular kind is too detailed for an outline of future

development possibilities, the technologies were subsumed by

a technology group referred to as PLA blend technology.

Thus, as PLA is used as input for PLA blends and as the output

goes to further processing of the blends, the technology as a unit of

analysis for the scenario analysis can be defined as in Fig. 4.

Currently, PLA blend technology is mainly used by small

companies. As a consequence, blends are either developed and

tailored for specific customers (e.g. spin-offs of research insti-

tutes) or developed for a general type of application in small

firms. In both cases, PLA blends are still produced on a small

scale. This is in strong contrast to the production of PLA which is

mainly in the hands of NatureWorks, who deliver to most PLA-processing firms.

4. Method

The theory described above as a basis for the scenario analysis,

which can be classifiedas single-case study [56], was adapted tothe

case of PLA blend production technology. An extensive literature

review led to a list of main influence factors, which were verified by

several interviews with experts from industry and research. The

scope of the scenario analysis was limited to the development of

technologies for the production of PLA blends in the European

Union (EU). The reason for limiting it to the EU is a conjoint regu-

latory framework of the member states. This framework is never-

theless not all-dominant but allows national regulations some

degree of freedom.

Accounting for the opportunity of different development

possibilities, one to three values were attached to every influence

factor, depending on the categorization in a probable or in an

uncertain future (cf. therefore also Section 5.1). As the development

possibilities of an influence factor cannot be exhaustively

enumerated, they were chosen in a manner that covers a wide

range of developments. These values were then connected to

consistent combinations by means of a decision tree, taking into

consideration three types of consistency: trend consistency

(compatibility of trends within the chosen time), stakeholderconsistency (requires that the major stakeholders are not placed in

positions they dislike and can change), and outcome consistency

[3]. The outcome of 49 combinations was further clustered to seven

aggregated scenarios. Owing to the lack of an appropriate computer

program for a sufficient cluster analysis, the aggregation was con-

ducted according to the importance of an influence factor for the

combination. When an influence factor was regarded as less

important than the other factors for a scenario, it was canceled

from the combination. All resulting combinations with an analo-

gous mix of influence factor values were combined into a bundle

that was considered as an aggregated scenario.

For a detailed description of scenarios, three aggregated

scenarios were chosen according to the criterion whereby future

opportunities were supposed to cover a wide range of develop-ment possibilities of PLA blend technology. Scenario 1 offers

a closed view on the problem of political and economic depen-

dency on oil and the possible resulting political actions. Scenario 2

focuses on social influence and on a differentiated development of

ecological awareness. Scenario 3 covers the economic view of PLA

blend technology with limited development possibilities. There-

fore all three scenarios are archetypical with different theoretical

foci on influence factors [9]: scenario 1 focuses on politics,

scenario 2 on compatibility with needs and scenario 3 on relative

advantage.

5. Results

5.1. Choice of influence factors

Thechoice of influence factors for the scenario analysis depends

in the first stepon the time horizon which itself is influenced by the

goal of the analysis. A time frame of roughly three decades is

chosen.

In this framework, all influence factors contain three dimen-

sions of characteristics as can be seen in Fig. 5: they can be internal/

external, general/technology-specific, and critical/uncritical. The

latter characteristic refers to the range of possible or probable

developments of influence factors which are referred to as values.

Critical influence factors have multiple values, whereas uncritical

factors have only one value[57]. As the multiple values of critical

factors cannot completely be narrowed down, a scenario analysis

can only contain a certain number of these values. Thereforea range of 1 (uncritical factor) to 3 (critical factor) values has been

Table 1

Applications of PLA[34,42,52,53].

Main application areas Examples

Industrial applications Agriculture, forestry

Fisheries

Civil engineering and

construction industry

Medical applications Bonding

ClosureSeparation

Scaffold

Capsulation

Packaging and daily

use applications

Bags

Food packaging

Packaging of consumer goods

Food tableware

Bottles

Containers

Decorative parts

Films

Kitchenware

Labels

Laminates

Non-wovens

Toiletries

Carpet


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applied. Thedifferentvalues were chosen in a wayto include a large

range of development possibilities for the influence factor.

The outcome of the analysis is depicted inTable 2.

The interrelation of the above-described influence factors can

also be depicted analogously to Section2, as inFig. 6.

5.2. Scenarios for PLA blend technology

5.2.1. Scenario 1: independence of oil

The continuously growing demand for oil and gas as feedstock

for industrial production, transportation and heating causes a tight

supply situation in the European Union. Owing to the increased

worldwide demand, oil prices rise rapidly. Additionally, as the

reserves in the North Sea decrease, the EUs import dependency on

politically instable countries, where state-owned oil and gasproducers control resources, grows dramatically. This development

motivates politicians at EU and national member state level to

increase subsidies for research and development that aims to

replace fossil raw materials for various applications. The European

industry is highly affected by the intended change in supply and

implements adaptations for production as well as for products in

order to use fewer fossil resources in the product life cycle. In

particular, the plastics sector, whose principal feedstock is still oil,

benefits widely from the financial support targeted at stronger

efforts in R&D for alternatives to petro-based polymers. The polit-

ical subsidies, the fast rise of the oil price, as well as the rising

demand in plastics, encourage plastic producers to develop new

types of polymers, e.g. by using new mixtures for blending, in order

to reduce the fraction of petro-based input.The increased interest in non-petro-based polymers also fosters

R&D in PLA blend technology. The intense R&D results in an

expansion of possible properties of PLAblends which areapplicable

for an extended range of products. The improved characteristics of

PLAblends like strength, heat resistance, durability, and high clarity

make PLA blends attractive for different products. Mechanical and

thermal properties, which enable the processing of PLA blends on

traditional machines, further contribute to the strong attention that

they attract. These excellent characteristics and the high oil price

give rise to substitutions of petro-based polymers by PLA blends in

many products. Examples of these are short-term applications like

pharmaceutical products and goods in the food service sectors as

well as long-term products in electronics, construction and leather

substitutions in the clothing industry.As a result of the increasing market share of products made of

PLA, the number of PLA-producing companies grows. The produc-

tion of PLA blends on a large scale in all European countries causes

a strong decrease of production costs owing to learning curves and

economies of scale. The enhanced demand for agricultural

commodities as feedstock rearranges the supply chain of the

polymer sector. Opportunities of synergy effects (e.g. economies of

scope) of both the agricultural and the plastics sector arise and

strenuous efforts are made to reorganize industrial processes of

transportation and processing. Cooperation between both sectors is

intensified, mainly focusing on logistics. Furthermore, the success

of the efficient synergy projects in the agricultural sector, thus on

the input side of PLA producers, makes the PLA producers consider

other synergies and reorganizations. Finally, they integrate PLA

blend technology in their production.

PLAblend technology in theplantsof large PLAproducersis adapted

to ensure a continuing downstream process of blend production after

PLA production. Geographical transfers complement an adjustment of

the size of the machines for large-scale production. The enlarged

variety of different blends premises a parallel use of different blendingtechnologies in one plant. On the other hand, technology for special

applications adapted to customers needs remains in small firms that

serve niche markets with small quantities.

5.2.2. Scenario 2: transient eco-markets

Environmental awareness undergoes a strong hype in the EU

population and follows thus a worldwide trend in consumer

sensitization towards health-related and environmental issues.

Lifestyle changes, particularly in large cities in respect of human

health and ecology, which causes a rethinking in topics of pollution,

waste and security in order to reduce the negative impact on

humans and nature. The trend that started in the beginning of the

21st century continues and buying patterns change to a fashionable

attitude towards ecologically friendly products (so-called eco-products). The whole life cycle is taken into consideration, and

labels of ecologically friendly products represent a considerable

marketing advantage for firms. Only some market segments can

substantially benefit from eco-products, however, such as the food,

packaging, and health care sectors. Others, like the automotive and

the electronics sectors, do not experience an analogous demand for

an environmentally friendly product life cycle. Thus, buying

behaviors fundamentally differ between lifestyle-products and

products requiring a large investment.

The increased environmental awareness fades after some years,

and the ecological compatibility of products becomes less impor-

tant. Other attributes of products come to the fore, and firms pay

less attention to the use of environmentally friendly materials. The

significance of environmental compatibility reaches a level wheregeneral concerns about pollution are theoretically accepted, but the

buying behavior is in all sectors primarily influenced by conve-

nience considerations.

The greater environmental awareness lowers the price elasticity

for eco-products during this time. As a consequence, firms start

Group of technologies for

the production of PLA blends

Issue of analysis

Technologies for the production

of PLA

Technologies for further

processing of PLA blends

Preliminary technologies Downstream technologies

Fig. 4. Technology for the production of PLA blends in the surrounding technology system (own illustration).

General / Technology specific Internal / External Critical / Uncritical

Influence factor

Fig. 5. Dimensions of influence factors[5759].


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actively marketing the ecological friendliness of their products. The

polymer sector reacts to this development by an expansion of the

utilization of biopolymers. As both biodegradability and renewable

feedstock of the materials are important issues for marketing,

biopolymers with both attributes are particularly used. PLA blends

meet both conditions and are thus subject to increased R&D that

enhances properties and increases application possibilities for

lifestyle products. PLA blend technology cannot, however, be

sufficiently ameliorated and PLA blends show a lower applicationrange in comparison with other biopolymers (such as starch-based

plastics). Furthermore, some required characteristics could only be

obtained by blending with petro-based and/or non-biodegradable

polymers, which in turn diminishes firms marketing effects and

sales. Thus, PLA blends remain a niche material that cannot keep up

with other biopolymers and PLA blend technology continues to

serve a limited market.

The temporary increase of PLA blend production causes a small

reduction of production costs because of learning curves and better

production lines. Nevertheless, as environmental awareness levels

off, the demand for PLA blends diminishes. The variety of PLA

blends still remains an important source for specialized products

that require characteristics where PLA blends have shown consid-

erably better attributes than other plastics. PLA blend technologythus remains at the level of medium-sized firms. R&D in those firms

is mostly concentrated on a specific group of applications as

demand becomes more sophisticated and production requires

more specialization in types of blends. The machines for PLA blend

production itself increase their throughput, but no fundamental

changes occur.

5.2.3. Scenario 3: domination of petro-based polymers

Although the oil price remains at a high level and even

increases, renewable resources do not compete with oil as feed-

stock. Production costs for plastics with renewable feedstock stay

too high, and petro-based polymers persist in covering the bulk of

the polymer market. Despite continued R&D in PLA blends, their

production costs remain uncompetitive, and the range of applica-

tion possibilities stays very small.

Additionally, the inconsistent legal framework of the EU in

terms of environmental issues, as for example landfills, hampers an

advancement of R&D for biopolymers. The overall aim to tighten

regulatory framework concerning biodegradability of products or

renewability of feedstock remains inconsistent. National interestsdominate discussions and the resulting uncertainty about future

regulations lets firms postpone costly R&D in biopolymers. Industry

faces the challenge to respond to all regulations while maintaining

economic production. Therefore the polymers sector uses PLA

blends only for applications where their advantages outweigh the

additional costs, such as agriculture, packaging, or when cost

savings can take place in other areas like the amount of labor

needed.

PLA blend producing firms specialize in particular types of PLA

blends that cover characteristics suitable for a large number of

applications. Firms remain specialized and concentrate research on

a limited amount of PLA blends. They maintain either small and

entrepreneurial structured firms or are spin-offs of research insti-

tutes. Large scale PLA blend production does not take place and thecustomization of PLA production technology to the specific users

requirement remains. This customization is, however, mostly

a minor adaptation of the technology. PLA blend technology

continues to serve niche markets and is thus specialized in the

production of customized blends.

6. Discussion

The approach to combining scenario analysis with diffusion

theory offers the major advantage of a joint consideration of

diffusion research and of the inclusion of uncertainty and different

Table 2

Main influence factors and their characteristics (own illustration).

Influence factors Degree of impact

PLA-technology

General/technology-specific Internal/external Critical/uncritical

Application possibilities of PLA-blends 3 Technology-specific Internal Critical

Policy & regulation 2 General External Critical

Price of PLA 2 Technology-specific External Critical

Oil price 2 General External Critical

Environment awareness andmarket for eco-products

2 Technology-specific External Critical

Demand for plastics 1 General External Uncritical

Degree of impact: 1 (low) to 3 (high): all influence factors are considered as important. Therefore the degree of impact is to be regarded as relative compared with the other 5

factors.

PLA-Blend-

Technology

in the future

PLA-Blend-

Technology

today

Application possibilities

Politics and regulation

Env. awareness /

market for eco-products

Demand for plastics

Oil price

Price of PLA

Fig. 6. Influence factors on the development of the market and technology for PLA blends (own illustration).


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development possibilities in the anticipatory process. It offers the

opportunity to specify the influence factors that have a strong

impact on the diffusion of a technology for the purpose of scenario

analysis.

The differentiation of external influence factors and the

autonomous development of a technology enhance the approach

and it is beneficial for the understanding of broad patterns of

technological change that leads to specific strategic implications

for technology management[27]. Furthermore, the application of

the perception of attributes as ex ante predictors of diffusion,

which have been used in the inner circle ofFig. 3, is also suggested

by Ostlund[18].

Additionally, the exclusion of some critical assumptions of

diffusion theory represents an advantage of the approach. Ref.[60]

specifies three assumptions that are strongly improved by my

approach: he arguesthat in the diffusion model innovationsremain

unchanged and do not undergo further development (thus no

internal development is regarded) and that the process of adoption

is distinct from the process of innovation (the adoption of a tech-

nology occurs after the development: there is no overlap of these

two phases). He also states that the adoption of one innovation is

independent of the adoption of others (analyzing a technology

adoption, the surrounding technologies and possible applicationbarriers are not considered). As none of the three assumptions

corresponds to reality, my approach excludes them. Therefore the

model enhances the grade of reality and offers many application

possibilities for technology management.

Consequently, the advantage of this approach is the discovery of

development possibilities of a technology on the basis of knowl-

edge about technology adoption developed by diffusion theory.

This approach has, however, a number of limitations. Addressing

the perceived characteristics of an innovation, at least two

perceptions are generally included in the making of a scenario

analysis, the one of the scenario-maker and the one of possible

adopters imagined by the scenario-maker. A possible conflict of

interests might influence the outcome of the scenario analysis. The

gathering of perceptions concerning a technology prior to itsadoption is also usually difficult unless special cases such as prior

knowledge about the innovation occur[18].

The described approach has a strong theoretical background but

needs to be supported by practical implementation. It is also less

clear whether the approach covers all issues that concern the

interest of a technology manager or if a technology scenario

approach needs to be enlarged in an additional direction in order to

specify technology managers needs of the scenarios completely.

The application of the method to biopolymer technology poses

a very good possibility, as it offers a wide range of development

possibilities that cannot be covered by a single forecast method. Yet,

as with every scenario analysis, this analysis is based on facts and

on subjective interpretations of them. Additionally, the large

number of influence factors and their possible developmentpossibilities cannot be fully included in the analysis. The fact that

information about PLA blend technology is rare also impedes

a complete presentation of the technology and its development

possibilities.

7. Conclusion

The approach to combining exploratory scenario analysis and

diffusion theory describes an advanced method of clearly defined

influence factors for technology scenarios and thereby using

diffusion theory in an ex ante manner. In this way technology

scenario analysis as a technique is greatly improved. The enhanced

method is very advantageous for policy-makers as well as for firms

in elaborating a new technologys current position in terms ofpossible future developments.

The future of PLA blend technology is strongly coupled with

political, economical and social developments and depends heavily

on its internal development expressed in production costs and

application possibilities of PLA blends. Geographical and firm-

related changes of the technology are possible in the courseof time.

In general, PLA blend technology has a good chance of capturing

a considerable share in the market, given advantageous techno-

logical, political and economic conditions. In order to attain

a desirable future state, normative scenario analysis for political

and economic actions can be applied by policy-makers to define

necessary steps. These may imply, for instance, increased R&D

subsidies for renewable resources and ecological minimal/maximal

requirements for production processes or products. A detailed cost-

benefit analysis might give important insights for the approach. To

date France and Germany have tangible measures for bioplastics

which can be used as basis for further evaluation.

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Florentine Schwark studied industrial engineering and management at the Uni-versitaet Karlsruhe (TH), Germany, and the Universitecatholique de Louvain, Belgium.She wrote her diploma thesis in 2006 at the Department of Management, Technologyand Economics (D-MTEC) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) in Zurichabout scenario analysis for new technologies and biopolymer technology. FlorentineSchwark has working experience in Germany, Japan and Switzerland. Currently she istaking a PhD in resource economics with the focus on energy and innovation at D-MTEC at ETH Zurich.

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