1-s2.0-S0308016113001579-main

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 8/12/2019 1-s2.0-S0308016113001579-main

    1/10

    Review

    Fatigue analysis of corroded pipelines subjected to pressure andtemperature loadings

    Divino J.S. Cunha a,*, Adilson C. Benjamin a, Rita C.C. Silva b, Joo N.C. Guerreiro c,Patrcia R.C. Drach c

    a PETROBRAS Research and Development Center, Brazilb Federal University of Par e UFPA, Brazilc National Laboratory for Scientic Computation e LNCC, Brazil

    a r t i c l e i n f o

    Article history:

    Received 10 January 2011

    Received in revised form

    7 October 2013

    Accepted 17 October 2013

    Keywords:

    Multiaxial fatigue

    Biaxial fatigue

    Strain-life

    Out-of-phase cyclic loadingsHeated pipelines

    Corroded pipeline fatigue analysis

    Corrosion defect SCFs

    a b s t r a c t

    In this paper a methodology for the fatigue analysis of pipelines containing corrosion defects is proposed.This methodology is based on the nominal stresses from a Global Analysis using a one-dimensional Finite

    Element (FE) model of the pipeline together with the application of stress concentration factors (SCFs).As the stresses may exceed the yielding limit in the corrosion defects, the methodology also adopts a

    strain-life approach (eNmethod) which is capable of producing less conservative fatigue lives than thestress-based methods. In addition the proposed methodology is applied in the assessment of the fatiguelife of an onshore-hot pipeline containing corrosion pits and patches. Five corrosion pits and ve

    corrosion patches with different sizes are considered. The corrosion defects are situated on the externalsurface of the pipeline base material. The SCFs are calculated using solid FE models and the fatigue

    analyses are performed for an out-of-phase/non-proportional (NP) biaxial stresses related to the com-bined loading (internal pressure and temperature) variations caused by an intermittent operation with

    hot heavy oil (start-up and shut-down). The results show that for buried pipelines subjected to cycliccombined loadings of internal pressure and temperature fatigue may become an important failure mode

    when corroded pipeline segments are left in operation without being replaced.2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    1. Introduction

    Fatigue is not usually a failure mode that occurs in buriedpipelines subjected only to internal pressure. However, this is notalways the case if other types of loadings act on the pipeline, likethe cyclic combined loadings of internal pressure and temperature

    resulting from intermittent operation with hot heavy oil.Furthermore, fatigue may become an important failure mode,

    even in buried pipelines subjected only to internal pressure, if any

    type of defect (cracks, dents or corrosion) is found in periodicalinspections[1,2].

    In the case of hot pipelines designed under the traditional phi-losophy of preventing buckling by burying, fatigue becomes animportant failure mode when corroded pipeline segments are left

    in operation without being replaced. This is a worldwide trend

    where very conservative corrosion assessment methods have beenreplaced by more accurate methods which are capable of not only

    guaranteeing the pipeline structural integrity but also toleratinglarger corrosion defects for longer periods of time.

    This paper presents a methodology for the fatigue life assess-ment of hot pipelines with corrosion defects in the base material.

    The proposed methodology is based on nominal stresses and stressconcentration factors (SCFs) together with a BrowneMiller (BM)strain-life critical-plane method [3e5]. Although stress-life

    methods are more disseminated[6], strain-life methods are moreadequate for pipelines which undergo plastic deformation.

    The BM method handles plasticity, which may occur in thecorrosion defect, as well as the multiaxial stresses/strains and theout-of-phase/non-proportional (NP) characteristic of the applied

    loadings or the corresponding stresses[3e5,7].The proposed methodology was applied to an onshore corroded

    API-X60 pipeline with a 57.7 ratio of the diameter to the wall

    thickness. The pipeline operates 3 times a week alternating be-tween hot heavy oil and light products at ambient temperature. Themaximum operating pressure is 8.2 MPa and the maximum oper-ating temperature of the oil is 80 C.

    * Corresponding author. Av Horcio Macedo 950, Cidade Universitria, Ilha do

    Fundo, 21941-915 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. Tel.: 55 21 3865 4743; fax: 55 21

    3865 3764.

    E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected](D.J.

    S. Cunha), [email protected] (A.C. Benjamin), [email protected] (R.C.

    C. Silva),[email protected](J.N.C. Guerreiro),[email protected] (P.R.C. Drach).

    Contents lists available atScienceDirect

    International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping

    j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m/ l o c a t e / i j p v p

    0308-0161/$ e see front matter 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2013.10.013

    International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 113 (2014) 15e24

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03080161http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpvphttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2013.10.013http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2013.10.013http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2013.10.013http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2013.10.013http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2013.10.013http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2013.10.013http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpvphttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03080161http://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1016/j.ijpvp.2013.10.013&domain=pdfmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
  • 8/12/2019 1-s2.0-S0308016113001579-main

    2/10

    2. Methodology of analysis

    As shown in Fig. 1, the proposed methodology for the

    corroded pipeline fatigue life assessment has three main phases:(1) Stress Global Analysis, (2) Stress components amplication bythe corrosion defect SCFs, with the SCFs obtained from a (20)Local Analysis, and (3) Fatigue Analysis using a multiaxial strain-

    life method. The steps (20)e(2) and (3) must be repeated for eachcorrosion defect. These three phases will be described in moredetail later on.

    Using SCFs means that the stress analysis is carried out for the

    plain pipeline (uncorroded) and a one-dimensional model may be

    considered for the pipeline (Global Analysis). This approach differsfrom that[3,4,8,9]where the stress analysis is normally performedwith the structure containing the corrosion defect (Local Analysis).

    In such cases, the stresses which result from the analysis arealready amplied in the defect, but the nite element model, beinga solid model, is more complex.

    In other words, although the calculations of the SCFs require a

    solid model,neither this model northe stresses from it are employedin the fatigue analysis. Only the values of both SCFs are utilized.

    The SCFs also imply that the Global Analysis only needs to beperformed once irrespective of the type or the geometry of the

    corrosion defects.

    Nomenclature

    a straight portion of the corrosion defect depth

    b Basquins fatigue strength exponent

    c CofneManson fatigue ductility exponent

    BM BrowneMiller

    CM Cof ne

    MansonCP critical plane (highest damage plane)C/P Ang FE-SAFE nomenclature for the CP anglefCWP cylindrical wide pitCycle-Ampl FE-SAFE nomenclature for the fatigue parameter

    amplitude (e/2)

    d corrosion defect depth

    dsi(i 1, 2, 3) stressdatasets(FE-SAFE data line with the stresstensor components)

    e BM parameter or strain (e h gmax n)e BM-parameter range (ee2e1 DehDgmax Dn)

    eL elongation

    D total damage (D SDi)

    De pipe external diameter

    Di damage of a single loading cycle (Di 1/N)DFF design fatigue factor

    E elastic (Youngs) modulusEFF environmental fatigue factor

    h hardening exponent

    H hardening coefcient

    hc cyclic hardening exponent

    Hc cyclic hardening coefcient

    hs soil cover

    L corrosion defect length (longitudinal dimension)LP longitudinal patch

    n number of loading repeats

    N number of strain cycles to failure (obtained from eNcurve)

    N loading history life (N 1/D), FE-SAFE output fatiguelife

    NP non-proportional

    p internal pressure

    pd design pressure

    poper maximum operating pressure

    r pit radius or patch-bottom llet radius

    R patch-top llet radiusSCF stress concentration factorSMTS minimum specied ultimate tensile stress

    SMYS minimum specied yielding stresst time

    t pipe wall thickness

    T temperature

    Tinst pipeline installation temperature

    Toper maximum operating temperaturew pipe weight

    w corrosion defect width (circumferential dimension)

    x, y, z local cylindrical co-ordinates

    X, Y, Z global cylindrical co-ordinatesz distance between the soil surface and the trench

    bottom

    afat fatigue usage factor

    g shear strain (gij i jon the shear planeiej,i,j 1,2, 3,i s j)

    i(i1,2,3) principal strains: in-plane (1, 2), out-of-plane/out-

    of-surface (3 h z)n normal strain

    ijn i j=2 on the shear plane iej,i,

    j 1, 2, 3, i s j)

    0f

    fatigue ductility coefcient

    true uniaxial true strain

    n Poissons ratio

    strue uniaxial true stress

    s

    0

    f Basquin

    s fatigue strength coef

    cientsh hoop stress (sh pDi/(2t))

    si(i 1, 2, 3) principal stresses: in-plane (s1,s2), out-of-plane/out-of-surface (s3 h sz)

    sL longitudinal stress

    su engineering ultimate tensile stress

    sy engineering yield stress

    s* reference sample (stress-tensor/dataset, within the

    stress history, taken by FE-SAFE to dene theorientation of stress principals and principal/shearplanes)

    s*i (i 1, 2, 3) reference principal stresses related todatasets*

    f rotating angle of the principal/shear planes round theout-of-surface axis 3 h z(0 f 180), measuredbetween the plane normal nand the stress principals*1, and identied in FE-SAFE output le as C/P Ang

    fx angle between the CP normal nand the x-axis(positive from x-axis towards y-axis), identied inFE-SAFE output le as CP/X/Ang

    q1 angle betweens1and s*

    1 (q1 0 for constant direction

    principals)

    DT temperature loading (DT T Tinst)(,)h hoop (circumferential)(,)L longitudinal

    (,)max maximum(,)nom nominal

    D.J.S. Cunha et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 113 (2014) 15e2416

  • 8/12/2019 1-s2.0-S0308016113001579-main

    3/10

    3. Pipeline characteristics

    This study was carried out on a buried API-X60 steel pipeline(seeFig. 2) designed according to the ASME B31.4 code [10]. It

    was assumed that the pipeline curvature is negligibly small andthat the soil cover is large enough to prevent the pipeline globalbuckling. In this case, as the nominal stresses are uniform in bothlongitudinal and circumferential directions, the fatigue loading of

    the pipeline containing one corrosion defect reduces to only onestress history.

    The pipeline operates 3 times a week alternating betweenhot heavy oil and light products at ambient temperature. The

    maximum operating pressure is 8.2 MPa and the maximum oper-ating temperature of the oil is 80 C.

    The main characteristics of the pipeline are shown in Table 1. As

    the operating temperature is below 120

    C, no derating is appliedon the steel properties[10].

    4. Geometry of the corrosion defects

    It is supposed that the pipeline has been operating for severalyears and during this time corrosion has occurred on its externalsurface.

    Two types of corrosion defects are considered in this study:cylindrical wide pit (CWP) and longitudinal patch (LP). In bothcases ve corrosion defect sizes are evaluated.

    The geometry of each pit is described by three key parameters:

    the pit depthd, the radius of the pit root rand the length a of thecylindrical portion of the pit. Other geometric parameters are: the

    pit length L, which is the pit longitudinal dimension and the pitwidthw, which is its circumferential dimension.

    A corrosion pit is sketched inFig. 3. The length a of the cylin-drical part of the pit is equal tor, the pit depthd is equal to 2r, thepit length L is equal to2rand the pitwidth w is approximately equalto 2r. Consequently, the pit length L and the pitwidth w are equal to

    the pit depth d. Table 2 presents the dimensions of each pitconsidered.

    The corrosion patch geometry is described by the following

    parameters: the depth d, the length L, the width w, the llet radius rand R and the straight lengtha of the rectangular part. The shape ofthe corrosion patch is shown inFig. 4and the patch dimensions areinTable 3.

    5. Local Analysis

    5.1. Solidnite element model

    The corrosion defects (pits and patches) inTables 2 and 3weremodeled using solid (3D) Finite Elements (FE) and their corre-sponding SCFs were calculated using these models. Each model wasrepresented by a 2.6 m straight pipe with a single corrosion defect.

    A cylindrical coordinate system was used with the followingconvention: X-axis (radial), Y-axis (circumferential) and Z-axis(longitudinal).

    The local analyses of all the corroded pipeline models were

    performed with the ANSYS program [11]. To take advantage of

    Fig. 1. Methodology owchart.

    soil

    hs

    +

    Fig. 2. Pipeline burial parameters.

    Table 1

    Design and operating parameters of the pipeline.

    Parameter e

    Pipe material API 5L X60

    SMYS 413 MPa

    SMTS 517 MPa

    Elongation eL 0.22

    Youngs modulusE 206 GPa

    Poissons ration 0.3

    Thermal expansion coefcienta 1.17 105 mm/mm/C

    Pipe external diameter De 457.2 mm (18 in)Pipe wall thicknesst 7.92 mm (0.312 in)

    Soil coverhs 1.0 m

    Pipe weightw 2.18 N/mm

    Design pressurepd 10.30 MPa

    Maximum operating pressurepoper 8.2 MPa

    Pipeline installation temperatureTinst 20 C

    Pipeline operating temperatureToper 80 C

    Design life 40 years

    Number of operations per week 3

    Number of operations during design life 6240Design fatigue factor DFF 5

    Environment fatigue factor EFF 2

    Fig. 3. Cylindrical wide pit (CWP): (a) top view, (b) longitudinal view.

    D.J.S. Cunha et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 113 (2014) 15e24 17

  • 8/12/2019 1-s2.0-S0308016113001579-main

    4/10

    symmetry only a quarter of each model was analyzed. The solid FE

    models were constructed using the non-conforming 8-node brickelement SOLID45 available in the ANSYS FE library. Appropriateboundary conditions were applied to the symmetry planes (seeFig. 5). The FE models were extended far enough beyond the

    corroded region to prevent the end conditions from affecting theresults.

    In the corroded region, 8 elements were used through itsthickness and at some distance outside the corroded region this

    number was reduced to 4 elements through the thickness (seeFig. 6). This mesh density was selected after a convergence study inwhich linear analyses were performed using an increasing degreeof mesh renement.

    The analysis of the plain pipe (uncorroded) was performed using

    a uniform mesh solid FE model with 4 elements through thethickness.

    In total, eleven solid FE models were constructed: one for theplain pipe and ten for the pipe with each type of corrosion pits and

    patches presented in Tables 2 and 3. For each solid FEmodela linearanalysis was performed. In these analyses, the pipeline was sub-

    jected to an internal pressure and a longitudinal tension. In fact, thelongitudinal tension simulates the temperature loading effect.

    5.2. Stress concentration factors (SCFs)

    For each applied loading (internal pressure and longitudinaltension) and each direction (longitudinal and circumferential orhoop) the SCFs were determined as the ratio between the

    maximum stress component in the corroded region and the cor-responding stress in the uncorroded pipeline (nominal stress):

    SCFik

    sk

    i

    max

    ski

    nom

    i L; h and k p; DT (1)

    In order to simplify the SCFs application, the SCF for longitudinal

    stress was taken as the mean value between the two longitudinalSCFs related to the internal pressure and the temperature loading.Therefore, as the temperature (or longitudinal loading) has no in-

    uence in the circumferential (hoop) direction, in this work theSCFs are given as:

    SCFL SCFL

    p SCFLDT

    2 ; SCFh SCFh

    p (2)

    The SCFs curves are shown in Fig. 7 as a function of thenormalized defect depth (d/t). Their numerical values are presentedinTables 4 and 5. The SCFs unitary values corresponding to the

    plain pipe (design condition) were included in the rst line of bothtables as new corrosion defects named CWP0 and LP0 respectively.

    Table 2

    Dimensions of the cylindrical wide pits (CWPs).

    Defect d(mm) r(mm) a(mm) L(mm) w(mm) d/t

    CWP1 0.792 0.396 0.396 0.792 0.792 0.10

    CWP2 1.584 0.792 0.792 1.584 1.584 0.20

    CWP3 2.376 1.188 1.188 2.376 2.376 0.30

    CWP4 3.168 1.584 1.584 3.168 3.168 0.40

    CWP5 3.960 1.980 1.980 3.960 3.960 0.50

    Fig. 4. Longitudinal patch (LP): (a) top view, (b) longitudinal view, (c) cross-section.

    Table 3

    Dimensions of the longitudinal patches (LPs).

    Defect d(mm) r(mm) a(mm) L(mm) w(mm) R(mm) d/t

    LP1 0.792 0.634 0.158 60 20 1.268 0.10

    LP2 1.584 1.267 0.317 90 30 2.534 0.20

    LP3 2.376 1.901 0.475 120 40 3.802 0.30

    LP4 3.168 2.534 0.634 150 50 5.068 0.40

    LP5 3.960 3.168 0.792 180 60 6.336 0.50

    Fig. 5. Boundary conditions of the solid FE models.

    D.J.S. Cunha et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 113 (2014) 15e2418

  • 8/12/2019 1-s2.0-S0308016113001579-main

    5/10

    6. Global Analysis

    6.1. Pipe model

    The Global Analysis was carried out using ABAQUS [12] andPATRAN[13]programs. The pipeline was represented by a 1.0 m-long pipe segment. The stress and strain components are refer-

    enced to a local coordinate system with the following convention:x-axis (longitudinal), y-axis (circumferential) and z-axis (radial).

    A single PIPE21 available in ABAQUS FE library was used tomodel the 1.0 m long pipe segment. This element has two nodes

    with 3-d.o.f. per node.

    Both extreme nodes were considered clamped. Due to this re-striction on the pipeline movement, and also the pipeline straight

    geometry, the soil has no inuence on the stress analysis.As the Global Analysis is elastic, the material behavior is char-

    acterized only by the Youngs modulus and Poissons ratio.Furthermore, the analysis is considered to be nonlinear geo-

    metric (NLGEOM optional parameter).

    6.2. Basic cyclic loadings

    The basic loadings are made up of the internal pressure p andtemperature loading DT variations related to the pipeline inter-mittent operation with hot heavy oil.

    In the numeric Global Analysis with ABAQUS, the basic loadings

    were applied throughout 4 cycles as depicted in Fig. 8. Each cycle

    was composed of 4 load-steps[14]in such a way as to representboth thestart-upoperation (internal pressure application followedby the temperature loading application) and the shut-downoper-

    ation (internal pressure removal or depressurization of the pipelinefollowed by the temperature loading removal or pipeline cooling).

    Within each step, the loading was incremented using an auto-matic time stepping algorithm, (only the initial/nal values and

    minimum/maximum increment limits were provided).The internal pressure was applied considering the pipeline in-

    ternal diameter as a reference.

    Fig. 6. Solid FE models used to calculate the SCFs: (a) plain pipe, (b) pit CWP3, and (c) patch LP2.

    1,00

    2,00

    3,00

    4,00

    0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5

    d/ t

    SCF

    Patch - (SCF)L

    Patch - (SCF)h

    Pit - (SCF)L

    Pit - (SCF)h

    Fig. 7. Stress concentration factors of the corrosion defects.

    D.J.S. Cunha et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 113 (2014) 15e24 19

  • 8/12/2019 1-s2.0-S0308016113001579-main

    6/10

    6.3. Nominal stresses

    In a pressurized, sufciently buried pipeline, the longitudinal

    strain is nil because of the soil imposed restriction. Under theseboundary conditions, a hot pipeline develops only membranestresses: one circumferentialsh and other longitudinalsL, the latterresulting from the sum of the longitudinal stresses (sL)

    P and (sL)DT

    caused by the longitudinal displacement restraint.The pipeline nominal stresses during the rst three cycles are

    shown inFigs. 9 and 10. Similarly to the basic loadings, the longi-tudinal and circumferential stress components are out-of-phase

    and have constant amplitudes.The pointsB and D in Fig. 10correspond to the operating pres-

    sure application (p poper) and removal (p 0) respectively. Thepoints Cand A correspond to the temperature loading application

    (DT DTmax Toper Tinst) and removal (DT 0) respectively.Some typical nominal stress values acting on the pipeline during

    a cycle are shown inTable 6. They correspond to the vertices of thelozenge in Fig. 10 and/or to the times 1, 2 and 3. Due to thesimplicity of the model, these values could also be obtained

    analytically (seeTable 7).As the stresses are elastic and the soil has no effect on their

    variations with time, the rst cycle is simply repeated throughoutthe analysis.

    7. Fatigue analysis

    The fatigue analysis was carried out using FE-SAFE program[8].The fatigue analysis phase is characterized by the following steps:(a) fatigue loading (nominal stresses) reading; (b) stress ampli-

    cation by the SCFs; (c) plasticity correction (Neubers rule) using thestatic and cyclic true stressestrain curves and nally (d) the fatiguelife/damage calculation using a multiaxial strain-life methodtogether with a uniaxial eN curve. These steps are described

    below.

    7.1. Fatigue loading and application of SCFs

    In this analysis, the fatigue loading is given by the nominallongitudinal and circumferential stress histories. As the rst stress

    cycle repeats itself on all subsequent cycles (seeFig. 9), only onecycle needs to be analyzed, naturally, the rst one (seeFig. 11).

    It should be mentioned that the calculated fatigue life is thesame irrespective of whether the complete stress history is input

    (as inFig. 11) or only their inection points (stresses at times 0, 1, 2,3 and 4) are provided.

    For a corrosion defect, the nominal/elastic stresses are amplied

    by the SCFs according to the following expression:

    si SCFi,sinom; i L; h (3)

    The SCFs of a corrosion defect may be applied either before thefatigue analysis, with the manual calculation of the Eq. (3), or whileentering the fatigue loading (nominal stresses) to the fatigue soft-ware[8]. The second form was adopted in this study due to the

    simplicity of considering only one corrosion defect at a time andbecause it allows the application of a different SCF to each stresscomponent. Moreover, by taking different corrosion defects in the

    same pipeline, as the nominal stresses are the same, only the SCFsvalues need to be changed in the load denition le (*.ldf) for eachdefect fatigue analysis.

    In this way, following the nomenclature shown in Fig. 12, the

    nominal stress history is given as two signals, and the corre-sponding stress tensor/datasets dsih [sxx syy szz syz szx], i L,h, are

    dened as unit tensor/datasets whose components are nil, exceptthat related to each signal, which is assumed to be equal to 1. Both

    signals and unit tensor are provided in two different ASCII les(*.txt).

    7.2. Stressestrain curves

    7.2.1. Elastic behaviorBefore the plasticity correction, using the multiaxial versions

    of the stressestrain relationship for elastic behavior [3,7,15]and

    Table 4

    Stress concentration factors of the corrosion pits CWPs.

    Defect d/t (SCFL)p (SCFL)

    DT SCFLa SCFh

    CWP0 0.00 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

    CWP1 0.10 1.707 1.568 1.638 1.601

    CWP2 0.20 2.099 1.867 1.983 1.901

    CWP3 0.30 2.214 2.094 2.154 2.005

    CWP4 0.40 2.284 2.258 2.271 2.086

    CWP5 0.50 2.370 2.398 2.384 2.162a TheSCFLmean value (see Eq.(2)) was applied to the longitudinal stresses due to

    both basic loadings (internal pressure and temperature loading).

    Table 5

    Stress concentration factors of the corrosion patches LPs.

    Defect d/t (SCFL)p (SCFL)

    DT SCFLa SCFh

    LP0 0.00 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

    LP1 0.10 1.719 1.577 1.648 1.769

    LP2 0.20 2.152 1.847 2.000 2.445

    LP3 0.30 2.520 2.104 2.312 2.902

    LP4 0.40 2.988 2.316 2.652 3.465

    LP5 0.50 3.484 2.527 3.006 4.046

    a TheSCFLmean value (see Eq.(2)) was applied to the longitudinal stresses due to

    both basic loadings (internal pressure and temperature loading).

    Fig. 8. Basic cyclic loadings (out-of-phase/NP constant-amplitude pressure and tem-

    perature variations due to the start-up and shut-down operations).

    -200

    0

    200

    400

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    Time

    Stress(MPa

    )

    Mises

    (L)nom

    (h)nom

    Fig. 9. Nominal stress history in the

    rst three cycles.

    D.J.S. Cunha et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 113 (2014) 15e2420

  • 8/12/2019 1-s2.0-S0308016113001579-main

    7/10

    the amplied nominal principal stresses (seeFigs. 11 and 12), the

    corresponding nominal principal strains are calculated (seeFig. 13). Note that the strains are triaxial (3 [v/(1 v)](1 2)) while the stresses are biaxial (s3 sz 0). Both

    principal stresses and principal strains in the FE-SAFE output le(*.log) are elastic.

    7.2.2. Plasticity correction

    In the absence of experimental data, the static stressestraincurve (uniaxial curve) was estimated from the SMYS and SMTSstresses using the RambergeOsgood equation (seeFig. 14):

    true strue

    E

    strueH

    1=h(4)

    and assuming the engineering ultimate strain to be half of theelongation. According to API Spec 5L[16], for X60 steel, the elon-

    gation is 22%. As mentioned inFig. 14, the following values wereobtained for the hardening parameters:H690 MPa andh0.08.

    Similarly, the cyclic stressestrain curve was dened as:

    true strue

    E

    strue

    Hc

    1=hc(5)

    Due to the lack of experimental data, in this study, the cycliccurve was taken to be the same as the static material curve, i.e.,

    Hc Hand hc h(seeFig. 14). That is, neither a hardening benetnor a detrimental softening was taken into account.

    The amplied nominal stress/strain plasticity correction, whichis an integral part of FE-SAFE, is based on a multiaxial approachusing Neubers rule[3e5,8,17,18]. In this process, the cyclic stresse

    strain curves are modied to allow for the effect of biaxial stresses[3,15].

    7.3. Strain-life method

    The uniaxial eNcurve is dened by the CofneManson (CM)

    equation:

    D

    2

    s0fE

    2Nb 0f2Nc (6)

    The fatigue life for a multiaxial strain parameter can be calcu-

    lated by modifying the right-hand side of Eq.(6)appropriately[8],

    i.e., keeping the same general format and the same material con-stants (E,s0f;

    0f,b,c). In this study, the fatigue lives of the corrosion

    defects were obtained using the multiaxial BrowneMiller (BM)

    algorithm[3e5,8]:

    Dgmax2

    Dn

    2 1:65

    s0fE

    2Nb 1:750f2Nc (7)

    Its worth noting that, under uniaxial conditions (3 2 v1),

    the multiaxial BM equation (Eq.(7)) produces the same fatigue lifeas does the uniaxial CM equation (Eq.(6)) itself[8].

    The BrowneMiller equation proposes that the maximum fatiguedamage occurs on the plane which experiences the maximum

    shear strain amplitude, and the damage is a function of both thisshear straingmaxand the strain nnormal to this plane (seeFig.15).

    According to Refs. [3,4], this is an attractive fatigue criterionbecause it uses standard uniaxial material properties and also gives

    the most realistic life estimates for ductile metals [3,4].When the principal stresses/strains are out-of-phase/non-

    proportional (NP), a critical plane (CP) technique is used. In thebiaxial case, the maximum shear planes are rotated round the 3-

    axis, which is normal to the surface, through an angle f(0 f 180) varying typically in 10 increments (see Fig. 15). Theplane with the highest calculated damage is the critical plane, and

    0

    100

    200

    300

    -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100

    Longitudinal stress (MPa)

    Hoopstress(MPa)

    1st cycle

    2nd cycle

    A (t = 0)

    B (t = 1)

    D (t = 3)

    C (t = 2) B'

    Fig. 10. Nominal stresses according to the start-up and shut-downloading sequence.

    Table 6

    Typical FE nominal stress values acting on the pipeline during a loading cycle (see

    Figs. 10 and 11).

    Point Time Stress (MPa)

    B,B0,C 1-2 Circumferential stressshdue to

    the pressurepoper

    228.48

    B 1 Long itudinal stress (sL)p due to

    the pressurepoper

    68.54

    D 3 Long itudinal stress (sL)DT due to

    the temperature loading DT Toper Tinst

    144.61

    C 2 Total longitudinal stresssL 76.07

    C 2 Von Mises equivalent stressseq 274.54

    Table 7

    Equations of some typical nominal-stress values during a loading cycle in a buried

    pipeline (seeFigs. 10 and 11,andTable 6).

    Point Longitudinal stress (sL) Hoop stress Von Mises equivalent stress (seq)

    A 0 0 0

    B vsh sh vsha

    B0 0 sh shC EaDT vsh sh EaDT

    2 vsh1=2 b

    D EaDT 0 EaDTa

    v ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi

    1 v v2p

    y0:889< 1/seqB0> seqB.b

    v EaDT1 2v v2sh > 0/seqC>seqD.

    -200

    0

    200

    400

    0 1 2 3 4

    Time

    Stress(MPa

    )

    (L)nom

    (h)nom

    Fig. 11. Basic fatigue loading history (nominal stress components of the rst cycle, also

    identied in FE-SAFE [8] as the in-plane principal stresses (s1)nom h (sh)nom and

    (s

    2)nomh

    (s

    L)nom).

    D.J.S. Cunha et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 113 (2014) 15e24 21

  • 8/12/2019 1-s2.0-S0308016113001579-main

    8/10

    the calculated damage on this plane determines the fatigue life ofthe structure being analyzed.

    Moreover, under the condition of NP loadings the plasticitycorrection is carried out using an incremental Neuber s rule [3e5,8,18] in terms of deviatoric stressestrain combined with amultiaxial cyclic plasticity model, i.e., kinematic hardening model,

    together with multiaxial stressestrain relations.

    In the absence of experimental data, the uniaxial fatigue pa-rameters were estimated by adjusting the CM equation (Eq.(6)) to

    an adequate existing eNcurve. In particular, the fatigue strengthcoefcient was estimated as[19]:

    s0f 1:5su (8)

    The proposed methodology uses the ASME best-tcurve[20e22] which is, in fact, a strain-life (eN) uniaxial curve [21e23].For the API X-60 steel (su517 MPa) it can be estimated by Eq. (6)

    with the following constant values (seeFig. 16):

    s0f 775:5 MPa; b 0:14; 0f 0:31; c 0:48

    (9)

    The endurance limit was assumed to be 1 1015

    cycles or2 1015 reversals (half-cycles).

    7.4. Fatigue damage

    In general, the fatigue damageis supposed to be calculated using

    the PalmgreneMiner rule [3,5,8,15]. In this study, as the fatigueloading amplitudes are constant the damage was simply calculatedas:

    D nDi n

    Niafat (10)

    where the fatigue usage factor is given by:

    afat 1

    DFF,EFF (11)

    Alternatively, introducing D0 (afat)1D and N0 afatN with

    Nh Ni, the criterion given by Eq.(10)can be rewritten as:

    D0 DFF,EFFn

    N

    n

    N0 1 (12)

    8. Results

    The fatigue life of the pipeline was calculated under the condi-

    tions given in Table 1. The geometric characteristics and the SCFs of

    the corrosion defects considered in this analysis (ve pits and vepatches) are shown inTables 2e5. Although the metal loss due tocorrosion is a time dependent process, it was assumed that the

    corrosion defects exist since the start of the pipeline operation andtheir dimensions did not vary with time.

    Fatigue cracks usually initiate from the body surface. In the caseof a pipe, this can be on the outer or on the inner wall surfaces.

    However, assuming that the pipe is a thin shell submitted only topressure and temperature loadings, the stresses are the same at anypipe radial surface and so there is not this distinction in terms ofwhich surface cracks initiate.

    The absolute value of the elastoplastic BM-parameter amplitudee/2, identied as the left-hand side of Eq. (7), and the corre-sponding fatigue lifeNare shown inFigs. 17 and 18, respectively, as

    functions of the angle f related to rotation of principal/shear planesround the principal axis 3(3-axis h z-axis), mentioned in Section

    Fig. 12. Amplication of the stresses during the fatigue loading history reading. In

    order to apply different SCFs to the stress components, these were given as signals, and

    the datasets dsi h [sxx syy szz syz szx], i L , h , dened as unit datasets:

    dsL [1 0 0 0 0 0] and dsh [0 1 0 0 0 0].

    -2000

    -1000

    0

    1000

    2000

    0 1 2 3 4

    Time

    Principalstrain(-stra

    in)

    (1)nom

    (2)nom

    (3)nom

    Fig. 13. Principal strains of the rst cycle (triaxial strains) for the plain pipe (defect

    CWP0 or defect LP0). In this particular case, as the SCF i 1.0, i L, h, these strains

    coincide with the nominal principal strains related to the nominal stresses in Fig. 11.

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    0 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,1 0,12

    True strain (mm/mm )

    Truestress(MPa)

    Static (h=0.08, H=690 MPa)

    Cyclic (hc=0.08, Hc=690 MPa)

    Fig. 14. Estimated uniaxial stressestrain curves (see Eqs. (4) and (5)).

    Fig. 15. Browne

    Miller (BM) critical plane (CP) method.

    D.J.S. Cunha et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 113 (2014) 15e2422

  • 8/12/2019 1-s2.0-S0308016113001579-main

    9/10

    7.3. In fact, the elastic and elastoplastic values of the BM-parameter/strain are available at both extremes of the range/cycle (e1 and e2) infunction of the angle f, so that the user can calculate |e|/2 h je2 e1j/2. According to both these gures, the BM-parameter

    is maximum and/or the fatigue life is minimum at f 30 on theplane 1e2.

    These results mean that the likely cracks will originate at a plane(critical plane) normal to the pipe surface (case A shown in Fig. 15)

    and whose normal vector nmakes a 30 angle with the referenceprincipal axiss*1related to the stress tensors*taken as a reference[8]to dene the surface orientation. In general,s*is dened as thestress tensor, within the stress history, with the largest principal

    stress or, if the other two principals at this sample are negligiblysmall, the one with at least two signicant principals[8]. In thisstudy, the stress tensor of time t 1 (the end of the rst load stepwith the internal pressure totally applied), whose rst principal

    axis coincides with the pipe circumferential (hoop) direction, was

    chosen as a reference.Therefore, the critical plane itself makes a 30 angle with the

    pipe longitudinal axis (the reference second principal axis s*2) and/

    or, equivalently, its normal makes a 120 angle with the pipe lon-gitudinal axis (x-axis) in accordance with the angle fx.

    Moreover, the fatigue loading history (longitudinal andcircumferential stresses shown in Fig. 11) were all classied as

    Non-proportional (constant direction principals), that is, q1 0 atany time, and the circumferential stresses/strains were identiedas

    the rst principals. The only interval, where the fatigue loadings

    were proportional, was the rst load step related to the internal

    pressure application, whensL (sL)p

    nsh (see Table 7 and Fig.10).In a defect free pipe subjected to internal pressure and an axial

    loading or temperature, the stress/strain principal axes are alwaysin the pipe longitudinal (axial) and circumferential (hoop) di-rections regardless of the phase between these loadings[5]. In thisstudy, the fatigue loadings (biaxial stresses) are non-proportional

    due to the out-of-phase nature of the basic cyclic loadings.The fatiguelife and fatiguedamage for the corrosion pits and the

    corrosion patches are shown inTables 8 and 9, respectively. Thelargest elastoplastic values of the BM-parameter/strain amplitude

    e/2 were also included in these tables. For both types of corrosiondefects the larger the defect the higher the fatigue damage. Aspreviously mentioned, the corrosion defects named CWP0 andLP0 are in fact the defect free pipe (design condition).

    As shown inTable 8andFig. 19, considering the fatigue damageacceptance criterion D 0.1 from Eqs.(10)and (11), all corrosionpits were accepted for more than 40 years, even the one which hasthe maximum depth (CWP5). However, the same doesnt apply in

    the case of patches. As shown in Table 9 and Fig. 19, only thecorrosion patches LP1 and LP2 were accepted for more than 40years. The corrosion patches LP3, LP4 and LP5 violate the fatiguedamage acceptance criterion slightly above 26 years, 13 years and 6years respectively.

    9. Conclusions

    A methodology for the fatigue life assessment of hot pipelinescontaining corrosion defects in the base material was presented in

    this paper. The general procedure includes three main phases:Global Analysis of the pipeline represented by a one-dimensional

    0,01

    0,1

    1

    10

    100

    1000

    1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06 1,E+07 1,E+08

    2N(half-cycles)

    Stra

    inamplitude(%)

    ASME best-fit curve [2022]

    CoffinManson adjusting (Sf'=775.5 MPa, b=0.14, ef'=0.31, c=0.48)

    Corresponding BrownMiller equation with parameter e/2 (Eq. (7))

    Fig. 16. Uniaxial strain-life curve adopted in the fatigue analysis (CofneManson

    adjusting of the ASME best-t curve). The multiaxial BM-curve (Eq.(7)) uses the same

    uniaxial constants.

    0,02

    0,04

    0,06

    0,08

    0,10

    0,12

    0,14

    0 30 60 90 120 150 180

    "C/P Ang" or angle (degree)

    |Cycle--Ampl|or|e|/2(%)

    plane 1-2

    plane 1-3

    plane 2-3

    Fig. 17. BM-parameter amplitude throughout the rotation of the three shear planes

    round the 3-axis for the plain pipe (defect CWP0 or defect LP0), after plasticity

    correction.

    0,E+00

    1,E+07

    2,E+07

    3,E+07

    4,E+07

    5,E+07

    0 30 60 90 120 150 180

    "C/P Ang" or angle (degree)

    LifeN

    (repeats)

    plane 1-2

    plane 1-3

    plane 2-3

    Fig. 18. Fatigue life of the loading history throughout the rotation of the three shear

    planes round the 3-axis for the plain pipe (defect CWP0 or defect LP0). Lives corre-

    spondent to the BM-parameters (|e|/2) shown in Fig. 17.

    Table 8

    Fatigue damage of the corrosion pits for the pipeline design life (40 years).

    Defect d/t e/2 (%)a N (repeats)b D n/Nb,c

    CWP0 0.00 0.1202 1.48E06 0.0042

    CWP1 0.10 0.1932 2.77E05 0.0225

    CWP2 0.20 0.2307 1.58E05 0.0395

    CWP3 0.30 0.2450 1.31E05 0.0476

    CWP4 0.40 0.2562 1.14E05 0.0547

    CWP5 0.50 0.2671 1.00E04 0.0624

    a Largest elastoplastic values, critical plane 1e2 withf 30 orfx 120.b N Nh 1/Didue to loading history be consisted of a single cycle.c

    n 3 cycles/week 52 weeks/year 40 years 6240 cycles.

    D.J.S. Cunha et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 113 (2014) 15e24 23

  • 8/12/2019 1-s2.0-S0308016113001579-main

    10/10

    plain pipe model; nominal stress amplication by SCFs obtainedwith solid FE models, and strain-life calculation.

    The amplied stresses are elastic and may exceed the yielding

    limit. Also, due to the out-of-phase/non-proportional (NP) nature ofthe applied loadings and the pipe cylindrical geometry, the stressesare out-of-phase/NP and their principal directions do not change.Under such conditions, the plasticity correction is performed by

    applying a multiaxial approach using Neubers rule, and the fatiguelife is calculated by using an eN method and the critical planetechnique.

    The multiaxial BrowneMiller algorithm and the uniaxial eNASMEbest-tcurve were chosen for the fatigue life calculations.

    The proposed methodology was applied to an onshore pipelinecontaining corrosion defects on its external surface. Five corrosionpits and ve corrosion patches, with different sizes, were consid-

    ered in this analysis. The fatigue results (life and/or damage of allcorrosion defects) showed that all pits and only the two smallerpatches could be accepted for more than 40 years (6240 cycles or

    start-up/shut-down operations). The other three corrosion patcheswould be approved up to just over 26, 13 and 6 years respectively.This means that fatigue becomes an important failure mode whencorroded pipeline segments are left in operation without beingreplaced.

    It should be noted that despite the complexity related to themultiaxial stress/strain and its out-of-phase/NP characteristics

    together with the plasticity, which may occur in the corrosiondefect, the fatigue loading was reduced to only one nominal stress

    history, and the fatigue analysis of the various corrosion defectsrequired only the changing of the SCFs values.

    Finally, its worth pointing out that this is a purely theoreticalstudy and testing is required to validate the approach.

    Acknowledgments

    The authors would like to thank PETROBRAS for the permissionto publish this paper.

    References

    [1] Eiden H, Mackeinstein P. Safe service life analysis for pipelines e an engi-neering method with various applications. In: Proc. of international confer-ence on pipeline inspection, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, CANMET CDD 62186720 631; 1983. p. 583e97.

    [2] Chuahan V, Swankie TD, Espiner R, Wood I. Developments in methods forassessing the remaining strength of corroded pipelines; 2009. NACE paper09115, NACE corrosion.

    [3] Fe-safe fatigue theory reference manualFE-SAFE user manual, vol. 2. UK: SafeTechnology Limited; 2006. version 5.2.

    [4] Draper J. Metal fatigue e failure and success, Journe Scientique, Les Mth-odes de Dimensionnement en Fatigue; 27 octobre, 2004.

    [5] Socie DF, Marquis GB. Multiaxial fatigue. Warrendale, PA, USA: Society ofAutomotive Engineers; 2000.

    [6] Palmer-Jones R, Turner TE. Pipeline buckling, corrosion and low cycle fatigue.In: OMAE98-0905, 17th international conference on offshore mechanics andarticle engineering, Lisbon, July 5e9, 1998.

    [7] Technical note e biaxial fatigue. UK: Safe Technology Limited; 2003.[8] Fe-safe user manual, vol. 1. UK: Safe Technology Limited; 2006. version 5.2.[9] Maksimovic S. Fatigue life analysis of aircraft structural components. Sci Tech

    Rev 2005;LV(1).[10] Anon. Pipeline transportation systems for liquid hydrocarbons and other

    liquids e a supplement to ASME B31 code for pressure piping. New York: TheAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineering; 2009.

    [11] Ansys engineering analysis system: users manual, version 8.1. ANSYS, Inc.;2004.

    [12] Hibbit HD, Karlson BI, Sorensen P. ABAQUS documentation, version 6.6-EF.

    Pawtucket, RI 02860-04847: Hibbit, Karlson and Sorensen Inc.; 2006.[13] MSC.Patran users guide, version 2005 r2. Santa Ana, CA 92707, USA:

    MSC.Software Corporation; 2005.[14] Klever FJ, Palmer AC, Kyriakides S. Limit-state design of high-temperature

    pipelines, OMAE 1994. Pipeline Technol 1984;V:77e92.[15] Dowling NE. Mechanical behavior of materials. 2nd ed. New Jersey: Prentice-

    Hall; 1999.[16] API specication 5Le specication for line pipe. 42nd ed. USA: American

    Petroleum Institute; January 2000. Effective Date July 2000.[17] Lemaitre J, Chaboche J-L. Mechanics of solid materials. Cambridge University

    Press; 1990.[18] Buczynski A, Glinka G. An analysis of elasto-plastic strains and stresses in

    notched bodies subjected to cyclic non-proportional loading paths. In:Carpinteri A, de Freitas M, Spagnoli A, editors. 6th International conference onbiaxial/multiaxial fatigue and fracture. Lisbon, Portugal: ESIS Publication 31,Elsevier; 2003. p. 265e83. 2001.

    [19] Meggiolaro MA, Castro JTP. Statistical evaluation of strain-life fatigue crackinitiation predictions. Int J Fatigue 2004;26:463e76.

    [20] ASME boiler and pressure vessel code, section VII, division II, appendix R:

    mandatory design based on fatigue analysis. American Society of MechanicalEngineers; 2004.

    [21] Langer BF. Design of pressure vessels for low-cycle fatigue. J Basic Eng TransASME September, 1962:389e402.

    [22] Rahka K. Review of strain state effects on low-cycle fatigue of notched com-ponents, vol. 263. PVP; 1993. p. 185e95. High pressure e codes, analysis, andapplications, ASME.

    [23] Branco CM, Fernandes AA, Castro PMST. Fatigue of welded structures. Lisbon:Fundao Calouste Gulbekian; 1987 [in Portuguese].

    Table 9

    Fatigue damage of the corrosion patches for the pipeline design life (40 years).

    Defect d/t e/2 (%)a N (repeats)b D n/Nb,c

    LP0 0.00 0.1202 1.48E06 0.0042

    LP1 0.10 0.2103 2.11E05 0.0296

    LP2 0.20 0.2905 7.86E04 0.0794

    LP3 0.30 0.3615 4.23E04 0.1475

    LP4 0.40 0.4702 2.08E04 0.3000

    LP5 0.50 0.6040 1.08E04 0.5778a Largest elastoplastic values, critical plane: 1e2 withf 30 orfx 120 .b N Nh 1/Didue to loading history be consisted of a single cycle.c n 3 cycles/week 52 weeks/year 40 years 6240 cycles.

    0,00

    0,10

    0,20

    0,30

    0,40

    0,50

    0,60

    0 1 2 3 4 5

    Corrosion defect

    Damage

    Pits

    Patches

    Fig. 19. Fatigue damage of the corrosion pits and patches for the pipeline design life:

    40 years (seeTables 8 and 9).

    D.J.S. Cunha et al. / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 113 (2014) 15e2424

    http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref2http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref2http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref2http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref3http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref3http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref4http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref4http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref4http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref4http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref4http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref5http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref5http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref6http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref6http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref6http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref7http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref8http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref8http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref9http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref9http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref9http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref9http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref10http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref10http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref10http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref10http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref11http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref11http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref12http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref12http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref12http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref12http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref12http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref13http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref13http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref13http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref14http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref14http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref15http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref15http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref15http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref15http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref15http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref15http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref15http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref16http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref16http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref18http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref18http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref18http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref18http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref19http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref19http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref19http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref20http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref20http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref20http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref21http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref21http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref21http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref21http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref21http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref21http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref22http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref22http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref22http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref22http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref21http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref21http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref21http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref21http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref21http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref20http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref20http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref20http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref19http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref19http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref19http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref18http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref18http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref18http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref17http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref16http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref16http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref15http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref15http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref15http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref14http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref14http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref13http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref13http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref13http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref12http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref12http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref11http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref11http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref10http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref10http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref9http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref9http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref9http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref9http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref8http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref8http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref7http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref6http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref6http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref5http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref5http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref4http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref4http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref4http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref3http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref3http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref2http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref2http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref2http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1http://refhub.elsevier.com/S0308-0161(13)00157-9/sref1