1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey ( ) : President Rotary Club of Norwich District 1080 Environment Officer District 1080 ComVoc Chair Rotary Club of Great Yarmouth May 31st 2011 The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: A Rotarians Guide - Hard Choices Ahead 2 Increasing Occurrence of Drought 3 Increasing Occurrence of Flood Climate Change: Arctic meltdown Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery Source: Nasa20% reduction in 24 years 20 24 Is Global Warming natural or man-made? Natural causes Earths Orbit Sunspot Activity Volcanic Eruptions Etc. Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement Winter: October March: Summer: April to September Compared to 1960 in 2010, 13.1% less heating needed And 106% more cooling. Temperature changes: Evidence in East Anglia Temperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal Data to end of Oct is on track to be 2 nd warmest year (GLOBALLY) Despite cold in UK December worldwide was 1 st /2 nd hottest ever Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport. 7 Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. FuelApprox emission factor Comments Coal900 1000g Depending on grade and efficiency of power station Gas400 430g Assuming CCGT lower value for Yarmouth as it is one of most efficient in Europe Nuclear5 10gDepending on reactor type Renewables~ 0For wind, PV, hydro Overall UK~530g Varies on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix Norfolk and Suffolk is a very low carbon electricity generation zone in UK But current accounting procedures do not allow regions to promote this. A firm in Norfolk / Suffolk would have only 16% of carbon emissions from electricity consumption Suffolk & Norfolk (2009) ~83g Sizewell B, Yarmouth and existing renewables Import Gap Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK On 7 th /8 th December 2010: UK Production was only 39%: 12% from storage and 49% from imports Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas. Gas Production and Demand in UK 8 UK becomes net importer of gas Completion of Langeled Gas Line to Norway Oil reaches $140 a barrel Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then 9 Options for Electricity Generation in Non-Renewable Methods Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Energy Review th May 2011 (*) Gas CCGT % (at present %) Available now (but gas is running out) ~2p + 8.0p [5 - 11] nuclear fission (long term) % (France 80%) - (currently 18% and falling) new inherently safe designs - some development needed p 7.75p [ ] nuclear fusionunavailable not available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for significant impact "Clean Coal" Coal currently ~40% but scheduled to fall Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration p [ ]p - unlikely before 2025 * Energy Review 2011 Climate Change Committee May 2009 Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after ? 10 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable Future prices from * Renewable Energy Review 9 th May 2011 Climate Change Committee 1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes On average has provided electricity for 700 850 homes depending on year ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p 11 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich Climate Change Committee (9 th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount Off Shore Wind % some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~ p 12.5p +/- 2.5 12 Options for Electricity Generation in Renewable ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 MW turbines] available now for commercial exploitation ~ 2+p Off Shore Wind % some technical development needed to reduce costs. ~ p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified Hydro (mini - micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential p 11p for kW Wind>500kW - 1.5MW Wind>1.5MW - 5MW Existing generators transferred from RO 99.4 to 2027 Export Tariff33.1 Feed in Tariffs Introduced 1 st April 2010 ***** for first installations Which can spread the message Engage with Schools Dispel myths Use simple messages that people understand - often monetary values mean more Think about our own actions. Tumble drying once a week amounts to 25 a year Can we car share when going to District Council? Four people travelled separately from North Norfolk to District 1080 Assembly. They would have emitted and extra 75kg CO 2 extra compared to travelling together at a cost of 30 extra in fuel. Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon reduction in the UK. Energy Security will increasingly affect us in next 10 years Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the planet in the developing world in the next 10 years Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also help with Global Warming Otherwise the Young will suffer during their life times. We in Rotary have the resources to work with the Young to combat the challenges facing us. Rotary is a Community billion people 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.03 billion people Products : 478 Mtonnes CO 2 increase in 3 years Aid & Education The Unbalanced Triangular Trade Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO 2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years Water issues are equally important. Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ tonnes of water Ethical Issues of International Trade Lao Tzu ( BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading. And Finally Engage with the Local Community / Schools? To promote awareness To Join together to get discounts on sustainable projects Share a remote reading meter around your club to help members/local community cut their energy consumption, improve energy security, cut carbon emissions and save money? Is there merit in organising a District Workshop on Environmental Issues? e.g. raising awareness where the individual can save money? Providing a sustainable and energy secure future for our children Engaging with the community to protect the environment. What could Rotary Do?