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Population Control

What is happening and what are the consequences?

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As can be see from the Demographic Transition Model change happens naturally as

countries develop• But in the 1970s, Population ExplosionPopulation Explosion was the BIG THING.

• It was firmly believed that improved health care and better agricultural techniques would mean more babies would grow into adults.

• There would be more and more people on the Earth

• They would go on having bigger and bigger families in those countries where they had large families and

• They would take up all the space and resources.

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• They had not put together the Demographic transition model that would have shown that as a country develops more, that families do get smaller, and that part of the problem would resolve itself.

• However there are still countries who are growing at more than 2.1% a year , which means they will double their size in 35 years or less!

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Thomas Malthus 1795• At the time, 30 years ago, the model for

population and resources that was most used was Thomas Malthus .

• In 1795, using the American figures for population and wheat production, he showed that population curved upwards while food production went in a straight line, which meant that eventually we would run out of food!

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• The consequence of these two principles is that eventually, population will exceed the capacity of agriculture to support the new population numbers.

• Population would rise until a limit to growth was reached.

• Further growth would be limited when: preventive checks - postponement of marriage (lowering of fertility rate), etc. and positive checks - famine, war, disease, would increase the death rate.

• So 30 years ago, the concentration was on lowering the birth-rate, as increasing resources were not seen as a long term possibility.

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Esther Boserup• In the 1975 Esther Boserup

came along with an alternative. • She believed that people are

naturally inventive and will always develop their way out of trouble.

• That the more people there were, the more work could be achieved and the more inventive they would be

• She called upon several technological advancements to back her theory.

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Ester’s argument• The Agricultural RevolutionAgricultural Revolution, which included breeding

cattle and sheep, which produced more milk, meat and wool.

• They also developed new technologies to evenly sow seeds, plough more efficiently and use their land more effectively.

• The Green RevolutionGreen Revolution: selective breeding in LICs in the 1960s, and the introduction of fertilizers and greater use of irrigation led to higher yields, faster growing plants and more crops grown on the same land. India has not had a famine since its introduction.

• Genetically ModifiedGenetically Modified crops could also prove to be one of these advancements, although they are in only the early stages of development at the moment.

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But the argument has not ended

• There are many that still think that there is a maximum population the world can feed, and look towards making sure this number is not breached.

• Many still see population control as the only way to ensure we can continue to feed the world.

• Some try persuasion and some take a more direct route!

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China 1979

• Their population was fast approaching 1 billion people.

• By 2025 it could reach 1.8 billion• There would not be enough food to go

round and many would starve• So they introduced a number of strict

rules.

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China 1979• China’s Communist leaders wanted to stop growth

altogether, so that the population was reduced to a sustainable size. In the 70’s there was Overpopulation.

• The ‘One Child’ Policy was introduced on 1st January 1979.

• The policy had a series of ‘carrot’ and ‘stick’ sections:

• Age limits and certificates reducing marriages• Free birth control / family planning advice• Cash bonuses, improved housing and free

education / medical care if couples limited themselves to 1 child

• Anyone having more than 1 child would lose all these benefits and also face financial penalties

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China 1979

• Advantages: 300 million children were not born in 1980s and 1990s

• The population would peak at 1.5 billion in 2050 before it started to fall– [remember they thought it would be 1.8

billion in 2025 if they had done nothing]

• The quality of life is better than it would have been

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China 1979

• Disadvantages: • Elderly parents have no-one to look

after them• Many girl babies were aborted or left

outside to die as every family wanted a boy

• Single children lacking siblings are often spoilt

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One child prosperous life

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Up agricultural production,

down population increase

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It's better to marry and

have children at a mature

age

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• National ad campaigns promoting "one child" link the policy to prosperity and good Communist citizenship.

• By showing happy single female children, many of the ads also seem to respond subtly to the traditional preference for boys.

• The figures do speak for themselves – up 120 live baby boys are born for every 100 girls – where have the girls gone – sex-selective abortion perhaps?

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The rules and updated regulations• The One child policy became law in 1979 • Women must be 25 before they can marry • Permission must be given before people can marry

and have children • Free health care, childcare, education and better

pensions provided for those who comply with new laws

• Fines for parents who have two or more children • Forced abortions and sterilization have been reported• Recent Changes - The law has now been

relaxed and:-• Families can apply to have a second child especially

if they have a girl first – why is that do you think?• A second child is permitted if the first one is

handicapped • Parents who are only children themselves are allowed

to have two children – why is that?

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But not every country is quite so drastic in its approach!

Let’s look at Kenya

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Kenya• Kenya was the first country in sub-Saharan

Africa, in the late 1960s, to begin developing a national family-planning campaign.

• The country's official population policy calls for matching population size with available resources, yet leaves decisions on family size up to individual families.

• While the Kenyan government formulates official strategies on family planning, promotion of the message and means of family planning falls mainly to local health-care offices and nongovernmental organizations.

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Kenya• By all accounts, the country's approach has

been successful. • The average number of children per woman

has dropped to around four from around eight in the 1980s, which constitutes one of the fastest-ever national declines in family size.

• Contraceptive use has grown from seven percent in 1978 to over 30 percent today.

• AIDS, which affects one in ten Kenyan adults, is a significant factor in both higher contraceptive use and the lower fertility rate.

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Some posters used in Kenya to encourage family

planning

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"That is not true.

The methods

we recommend for you

are safe."

"I stopped

using family

planning because

my friends

told me it is not

good for my

health."

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Kenya• As you saw in the posters, Kenya's

population ads target both men and women, • They point out the need for family planning

around the realities of population growth such as overuse of land and scarcity of jobs.

• The campaigns also explain contraceptive methods and provide assurance of their safety and usefulness, especially in rural areas, where suspicion and misunderstanding are common.

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Homework• Open• http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-

pacific/6346931.stm • This is an article about China’s One-

Child Policy.• This looks at one side of the problem.• Your task: to decide whether enforced

population control is a good thing or a bad thing.

• Use evidence to support your view