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Plug-In Cars: Enhancing Smart Grid Investment Returns

Steven E. Letendre, PhDAssociate Professor

Green Mountain CollegePoultney, VT

May 19, 2010REV DG Conference 2010

Manchester, VT

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Coming to a showroom near you…?

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What we know?• Plug-in cars dramatically improve fuel

economy

• Initial vehicle launch (GMC and Nissan) later this year with MSRP well north of $30K.

• Lithium Ion batteries (Leaf 24 kWh / Volt 16 kWh ).

• Agreement on plug (SAE J1772) 3-point 400V.

• There is sufficient off-peak capacity nation-wide to charge a large number of plug-in cars.

• Electricity is a less expensive fuel for cars than gasoline on a per mile basis.

• Federal incentives are key driver, up to $7,500 per car.

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What we don’t know?

• How robust will the battery packs be and will they require replacement at some point during the life of the vehicle?

• Consumer charging preferences?

• Which companies will dominate the smart charging and vehicle management IT space?

• How quickly will consumers adopt plug-in cars?

• What will the fleet of plug-in cars look like 5, 10, 20, 30 years out?

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Plug-In Cars in Vermont

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20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

Year

Total Number of AEVs

Base Case

Low Case

High Case

6

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Time of Day

MW Load

Summer Peak

50 k PHEVs

100 k PHEVs

200 k PHEVs

Plug-In Car Charging in Vermont

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Plug-In Car Charging in Vermont

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Time of Day

MW Load

Summer Peak

50 k PHEVs

100 k PHEV

200 k PHEVs

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Using Smart Grids to Unlock V2G Revenue Potential

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Low Hanging, Valuable Fruit—Grid Regulation

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It’s Happening Now($120 - $200 / month / vehicle)

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V2G Resource in Vermont: Projections

2015 2020 2025 2030Low 56 306 667 926Base 116 637 1,390 1,930High 195 1,070 2,335 3,242

Aggregate Energy Storage Potential of Plug-In Fleet(MWh)

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V2G Resource in Vermont: Projections

Aggregate Power Output Potential of Plug-In Fleet(MW)

2015 2020 2025 2030Slow Fast Slow Fast Slow Fast Slow Fast

Low 17 67 61 245 99 401 110 446Base 28 111 101 409 165 669 183 743High 39 156 141 572 231 936 257 1,040

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Smart Grids to Link RE Production with Plug-In Car Charging

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Concluding Thoughts

• Plug-in cars represent a large new load for households and the power system.

• Smart grid technology can serve to: manage vehicle charging, unlock V2G revenues, and link RE production with vehicle charging.

• It may take a decade to see large numbers of plug-in cars in Vermont, but meaningful demonstrations can happen (should happen) much sooner.

• Smart grid technologies can generate significant value creating a bridge between the electric system and the auto fleet.

LetendreS@greenmtn.edu

Thank You! Please ask questions…

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Acknowledgments

Vermont Department of Public Service