1 Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) Primary Mission: TO LEAD NATIONAL EFFORTS TO REDUCE ILLICIT DRUG USE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES

1

Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP)

Primary Mission:

TO LEAD NATIONAL EFFORTS

TO REDUCE ILLICIT DRUG USE

AND ITS CONSEQUENCES.

ONDCP/FEB02

ONDCP Created by the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1988, as amended

Develops National Drug Control Strategies and Coordinates and Oversees Implementation

Develops Federal National Drug Control Budgets

Recommends improvements in management andorganization of drug control efforts

Conducts evaluations and performance measurementto improve program effectiveness

ONDCP/FEB02

National Drug Control StrategyNational Priorities

Stopping Use Before It Starts: Education and Community Action

Healing America’s Drug Users: Getting Treatment Resources Where They Are Needed

Disrupting the Market: Attacking the Economic Basis of the Drug Trade

ONDCP/FEB02

Two and Five Year Goals

Two-Year Goals: A 10 percent reduction in current use of illegal drugs by the 12-

17 age group A 10 percent reduction in current use of illegal drugs by those

aged 18 and older

Five-Year Goals: A 25 percent reduction in current use of illegal drugs by the 12-

17 age group A 25 percent reduction in current use of illegal drugs by those

aged 18 and older

ONDCP/FEB02

These Goals translate into these declines in Past Month Drug Use

Source of 1999 and 2000 data: SAMHSA, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, 2000.

8.7

7.3

5.95.3

4.4

9.7

0

3

6

9

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

12 to 17

18 or older

ONDCP/FEB02

Budget Highlights:

Funding by Major Initiatives

ONDCP/FEB02

Stopping Use Before It Starts Education and Community Action

Safe and Drug-Free Schools Program: $644 million ($634.8 million drug-related)

National Youth Media Campaign: $180 million

Drug-Free Communities Program: $60 million

Parents Drug Corps Program: +$5 million

Drug-Free Workplace Programs: $3 million

ONDCP/FEB02

HHS Drug Abuse Treatment Programs:

Substance Abuse Mental Health Services Administration Targeted Capacity Expansion Program: +$109 million Substance Abuse Prevention and Treatment Block Grant:

+$60 million

HHS Drug Abuse Treatment Research: National Institute on Drug Abuse: +$57.5 million

Healing America’s Drug Users: Getting Treatment Resources Where They Are Needed:

ONDCP/FEB02

DOJ Drug Abuse Treatment Programs:

Promoting Drug Treatment in the Criminal Justice System

Residential Substance Abuse Treatment: +$7 million ($77 million total)

Drug Courts: +$2 million ($52 million total)

Healing America’s Drug Users: Getting Treatment Resources Where They Are Needed:

(continued)

ONDCP/FEB02

Andean Counterdrug Initiative: $731 million

Coast Guard’s Deepwater Project: +$500 million

Border Control and Enforcement: +$76.3 million

($11.4 million drug-related)

Southwest Border Prosecutor Initiative: $50 million

Disrupting the Market: Attacking the Economic Basis of the Drug Trade:

ONDCP/FEB02

0

5

10

15

20

The Federal Drug Control Budget has more than quadrupled since ONDCP was established in 1988.

Dollars, in Billions

FY 2003: President’s Request

FY 2002: Enacted Level

All Other Year: Actual Expenditures

ONDCP/FEB02

0

5

10

15

20

FY

86

FY

87

FY

88

FY

89

FY

90

FY

91

FY

92

FY

93

FY

94

FY

95

FY

96

FY

97

FY

98

FY

99

FY

00

FY

01

FY

02

FY

03

Interdiction

International

Domestic LawEnforcement

Demand Reduction

Demand Reduction and Domestic Law Enforcement account for the bulk of Federal Drug Control Spending

Fiscal Year 1986 -2003Dollars, in Billions

ONDCP/FEB02

$3,811.7

$2,473.4

$9,451.9

$2,289.7

$1,153.0

Fiscal Year 2003 President’s Request, by Area Total Resources: $19.2 Billion

(Dollars in Millions)

Domestic Law Enforcement

(49%)

Treatment w/Research

(20%)

Prevention w/Research

(13%)

Interdiction (12%)

International (6%)

ONDCP/FEB02

Restructuring the NationalDrug Control Budget

One of the key changes in the new National Drug Control Strategy is a restructuring of the Drug Control Budget. The budget has partly been based on imperfect estimation techniques that gauge the portion of a program related to drug control. Under the new approach, all drug programs will tie directly to actual line items in agency budgets – establishing clearer lines of authority and accountability for results.

Principles: All funding items displayed in the drug budget should be readily identifiable

line items in the Budget of the President or agency budget justifications; and

The budget presentation should be simplified by eliminating several supporting agencies from the drug tabulation. Only agencies with a primary demand reduction or supply reduction mission would be displayed in the drug budget

ONDCP/FEB02


Department of Defense

Department of Education Safe and Drug-Free Schools

Health and Human ServicesSAMHSANIDA

Department of JusticeDEAOCDETFINSOJP

ONDCP Department of State

Department of Transportation Coast Guard

Department of TreasuryCustoms ServiceOCDETF

Department of Veterans Affairs

Other Presidential Initiatives Drug-Free Workplace Programs Parents

Drug Corps Program SWB Prosecutor Initiative

Proposed Agencies Included Under Budget Restructuring:

ONDCP/FEB02


Modified Pro Forma Drug Control Budget

Federal Drug Control Funding by Function

($ in Millions)

FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 02-03 %Final BA Enacted Request Change Change

Function

Treatment (w/ Research) $2,858.2 $3,044.3 $3,226.5 $182.3 6.0%

Prevention (w/ Research) 1,900.0 2,048.0 1,985.2 (62.8) (3.1%)

Supply 5,066.4 5,847.7 6,177.4 329.7 5.6%

Total $9,824.6 $10,939.9 $11,389.3 $449.4 4.1%

(Detail may not add to totals due to rounding)

17

The Current Drug Situation

Including Prevention

and Treatment

ONDCP

ONDCP/FEB02

Summary of Current Situation:The National Household Survey

The main finding in the 2000 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) is that overall drug use remains level. The rate of current (past month) illicit drug use is unchanged from 1999, with 6.3 percent of the population 12 years and older reporting past month use of an illicit drug in both 1999 and 2000. This represents an estimated 14.0 million current users in 2000. None of the major drug categories registered any significant change in their rates of current use.

Marijuana is the most commonly used illicit drug--76 percent of current illicit drug users used marijuana, and approximately 59 percent consumed only marijuana. The remaining 41 percent of current illicit drug users, those who used illicit drugs other than marijuana, total about 5.7 million Americans. Of these, 3.8 million were using psychotherapeutics, non-medically. This includes pain relievers (2.8 million users), tranquilizers (1 million users), stimulants (800,000 users), and sedatives (200,000 users).

This Nation is clearly moving away from cocaine. Current use of cocaine in the household population is down from its peak of 5.7 million users in 1985 to 1.2 million in 2000. The estimated number of current crack users in 2000 was 265,000.

Almost 3 million persons (2.8 million) reported having tried heroin in their lifetime (1.4 percent), but only 130,000 (0.1% of the household population) reported heroin use in the past month.

Lifetime use of methamphetamine was reported by 8.8 million persons (4.0 percent), but only 387,000 (0.2%) reported use in the past month.

Lifetime inhalant use was reported by 16.7 million persons (7.5 percent), with 622,000 reporting use in the past month (0.3 percent). Among youth, 8.9 percent reported having tried inhalants, while 1.0 percent reported current use. As noted above, a significant decline was noted among those aged 12-13.

Lifetime use of MDMA in 2000 is estimated at 6.4 million persons, compared to 5.1 million in 1999. The 2000 NHSDA was not designed to report past month or past year use of MDMA.

ONDCP/FEB02

Summary of Current Situation:Continued

There were 2 million new marijuana users in 1999 – 18 percent fewer than the 2.5 million new users in 1998. This continues the gradual decline that begun in 1995, when there were 2.6 million new users. The average age at first use was 17.0 years.

Youths aged 12 to 17 have constituted about two-thirds of the new users of marijuana in recent years, with young adults aged 18 to 25 constituting most of the remaining third. Rates of use for both youth and young adults decreased between 1998 and 1999.

New cocaine users in 1999 numbered about 768,000, down 13 percent from 1998 (882,000). However, average age at first dropped from 19.9 years in 1998 to 19.5 years in 1999.

Initiates to heroin use were estimated at 104,000 in 1991, 26 percent less than in 1998 with 140,000 new users. Average age at first use was 19.8 years, younger than the 23.5 and 21.9 years estimated for 1997 and 1998, respectively.

Initiates to hallucinogen use (incl.. LSD and PCP) were estimated at 1.2 million, the highest estimate since 1965.

Estimates of substance abuse incidence, or initiation (I.e., number of new users during a given year) provide a valuable measure of the Nation’s drug use problem. They can suggest emerging patterns of use, particularly among young people. The initiation estimates in the 2000 NHSDA are based on combined 1999 and 2000 data, so direct comparison to older data is problematic. The key findings on initiation for 2000 follow:

ONDCP/FEB02


Among youth (ages 12-17), the rate of any illicit drug use in the past month is statistically unchanged, from 9.8 percent in 1999 to 9.7 percent in 2000. Heroin use in the past month declined significantly from 0.2 percent in 1999 to 0.1 percent in 2000, while rates of current use for other major drugs did not change significantly from the previous year.

The youngest subset of youth (ages 12-13) reported a significantly lower rate of current use of any illicit drug, from 3.9 percent in 1999 to 3.0 percent in 2000. Inhalant use in the past month decreased significantly from 1.3 percent in 1999 to 0.7 percent in 2000. Rates of use for other specific drugs did not change significantly over the same period.

However, for the oldest subset of youth (ages 16-17), some significant increases in current use were noted. There was a significant increase in past month nonmedical use of psychotherapeutic drugs, from 3.4 percent in 1999 to 4.3 percent in 2000. Within the psychotherapeutics category, past month nonmedical use of pain relievers increased significantly from 2.6 percent in 1999 to 3.3 percent in 2000. Current use of stimulants also increased significantly, from 0.8 percent to 1.2 percent. Methamphetamines, a category of stimulants, also showed a significant increase in this age subgroup, doubling from 0.3 percent in 1999 to 0.6 percent in 2000.

Youth attitudes are unchanged from last year. Perceptions of risk of drug use among youth show no statistically significant increases or decreases from 1999 to 2000. While perceptions of risk of marijuana, cocaine, heroin, and LSD use are stable, the percentage of youth reporting great risk in smoking one or more packs of cigarettes per day increased significantly from 60.7 percent in 1999 to 64.1 percent in 2000. Also showing improvement is the percentage of youth reporting great risk in drinking five or more drinks once or twice a week, from 42.0 percent to 43.2 percent.

Youth perception of the availability of drugs declined for each drug class. Significant declines in the percentage of youth reporting that marijuana was fairly or very easy to obtain declined from 56.5 percent in 1999 to 54.1 percent in 2000. Significant declines also were reported for cocaine (27.5 percent to 25.2 percent), crack (28.4 percent to 26.8 percent), heroin (18.1 to 17.0), and LSD (24.9 to 23.0).

ONDCP/FEB02


Among young adults, the subgroup that has the highest rate of drug use, 15.9 percent reported current use in 2000 compared to 16.4 in 1999 (this change is not statistically significant). A significant reduction was found for current stimulant use, from 1.1 percent in 1999 to 0.8 percent in 2000. Rates of current use for the other major drugs are statistically unchanged from 1999.

For the subset of young adults aged 18-20, no significant changes were noted over the two-year period, except for a decrease in past year use of cocaine, from 5.7 percent in 1999 to 4.8 percent in 2000.

For the older young adults (ages 21-25), a significant decline in past year use of any illicit drug was noted, from 25.8 percent in 1999 to 24.1 percent in 2000. Cocaine and nonmedical use of psychotherapeutics may account for this decline. In 1999, 1.6 percent reported past month use of cocaine, declining to 1.1 percent in 2000. Current crack use also declined from 0.2 percent to 0.1 percent. Stimulant use in the past month declined significantly from 0.8 to 0.5 percent.

In the age group 26 to 34, current crack use declined significantly, from 0.4 percent in 1999 to 0.1 percent in 2000. However, nonmedical use of psychotherapeutics increased significantly for lifetime and past month use (current use increasing from 1.5 percent to 2.1 percent). Current nonmedical use of pain relievers* (a subset of psychotherapeutics) rose significantly from 0.9 percent to 1.6 percent.

The nonmedical use of this category includes drugs used when they were not prescribed for you or that you took only for the experience or feeling they caused and excludes use of over-the-counter pain relievers. It does include, among others, prescription pain relievers such as Codeine, Demerol, Hydrocodone, OxyContin, Percocet, Percodan, and Vicodin.

No statistically significant changes were noted for the age group 35 and older in any drug class.

Drug use among young adults (age 18-25):

ONDCP/FEB02

For the total population ages 12 or older, there were no significant changes in recent years.

Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Any Illicit Drug

0

5

10

15

1985 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Source: SAMHSA, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

*The survey methodology was changed in 1999. Estimates based on the new survey series are not comparable to previous years.

New surveyseries*

ONDCP/FEB02

This flattening is true for all major classes of drugs.

Percentage of Population Reporting Past Month Use

0

5

10

15

85

88

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

1999

2000

Any Illicit Drug

Marijuana

Cocaine

NOTE: Changes made to the design and execution of the NHSDA in 1999 make long term comparisons of trend data impossible. The second set of data provided below for 1999 and 2000 are comparable, but the data labeled “99” is the last year for long term trend data. The “99” and 1999 data differ slightly, because of the changes in the survey.

Data break

Source: 2000 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

ONDCP/FEB02

14 million were current (past month) users of an illicit drug in 2000.

3.8

0.13

0.4

0.62

0.97

0.265

1.2

10.7

14

0 5 10 15

Nonmedical Use

Heroin

LSD

Inhalants

Hallucinogens

Crack

Cocaine

Marijuana

Any Illicit Drug

(incl. crack)

Past Month Users (in Millions)

(any psychotherapeutic)


ONDCP/FEB02

Among youth (ages 12 to 17), current use of any illicit drugs is unchanged in the last two years.


0

5

10

15

1985 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000


New surveyseries*

*The survey methodology was changed in 1999. Estimates based on the new survey series are not

comparable to previous years.

ONDCP/FEB02

Among young adults (ages 18 to 25), current use of any illicit drugs is unchanged from 1999 to 2000.


0

5

10

15

20

25

1985 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000


New surveyseries*

*The survey methodology was changed in 1999. Estimates based on the new survey series are not

comparable to previous years.

ONDCP/FEB02

17%59%

24%

Marijuana only

Marijuana and some

other drug

Only a drug other than marijuana

Among Current Drug Users, Marijuana is Still the Most Abused Illicit Drug.

Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Illicit Drugs, 2000


ONDCP/FEB02

Among youth (aged 12 to 17), current use of any illicit drug in 2000 also is unchanged from 1999, except for heroin use, which

is significantly lower.

Percent Reporting Past Month Use

9.8

7.2

0.51.1

0.2 0.2

9.8

7.2

0.61.2

0.1 0.20

2

4

6

8

10

1999

2000


ONDCP/FEB02

9.7

15.9

4.2

0

5

10

15

20

12-17 18-25 26 or older


Young adults have the highest drug use rates.


ONDCP/FEB02

3

9.8

16.4

19.6

13.2

7.8

3.3

0

5

10

15

20

12-13 14-15 16-17 18-20 21-25 26-34 35 andolder


Drug use rates among young adults peak at age 18-20.


ONDCP/FEB02

9.8

19

5.4

9.5

12.7

3.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

12-17 18-25 26 or older

Male

Female

Males consistently have higher rates of any illicit drug use.

Percent Using in Past Month


ONDCP/FEB02

6.4 6.4 6.25.3

2.7

12.6

14.8

0

3

6

9

12

15

White Black Nat.Hawaiian/Pac

Islnd

Hispanic Asian Amer. Ind./AlaskaNative

MultipleRace

Persons of multiple race and American Indian/Native Alaskans have the highest rate of current use of any illicit drug.



ONDCP/FEB02

6.5 6.8

3.9

0

2

4

6

8

Large Metro Non-Metro Urbanized Non-Metro Rural

Current use of any illicit drug is lowest in rural areas.



ONDCP/FEB02

Marijuana accounts for the largest proportion of drug use, both in the general population and among youth.

11

6.3

34.2

8.34.8

38.9

0

10

20

30

40

Lifetime Past Year Current

Percent Reporting Use

18.6

9.7

18.3

13.4

7.2

26.9

0

10

20

30

40

Lifetime Past Year Current

Any Illicit Drug

Marijuana

Age 12 or OlderYouth (12 -17)


ONDCP/FEB02

Percent Reporting Past Month Use of an Illicit Drug

3

9.8

16.4

19.6

13.2

7.8 75.3

6.54.8

2.40.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

12-13Yearsof age

14-15 16-17 18-20 21-25 26-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-64 65+

Current Drug Use Varies Widely, by Age, but the Cohort Effect Lasts a Lifetime.

Prime example of an aging cohort of drug users -- this group began use in 1970s.


ONDCP/FEB02

Past Month Drug Use Varies by by Race/Ethnic Group: those reporting Puerto Rican and American Indian as Race/Ethnic

Group show highest rates of use.

. 0 3 6 9 12

White

Black

Amer. Ind/Alaskan Nat.

Chinese

Filipino

Japanese

Asian Indian

Korean

Vietnamese

Mexican

Puerto Rican

Central/South American

Cuban

Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Any Drug, Age 12 and Older, 1999


ONDCP/FEB02

Adults on parole or supervised release and those on probation have substantially higher rates of current drug use compared to

those not on parole or probation.


21.6

5.8

24.2

5.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

On Parole/Supervised

Release

Not on Parole/Supervised

Release

On Probation Not onProbation


ONDCP/FEB02

Heroin Use is a growing concern.

The ONDCP Pulse Check and the Community Epidemiology Working Group Report indicate heroin use nationwide is low, but on the rise.

High purity heroin and lower prices contribute to increased use.

Increased heroin abuse in the U.S. in the 1990s may be attributable in large part to growing polydrug use. Many heroin users also use other illegal drugs, most often cocaine or methamphetamine.

Majority of users are in their 30s and injecting; younger users beginning to inhale or smoke heroin.

ONDCP/FEB02

DUF/ADAM data and the 1999 NHSDA State-level data both indicate that methamphetamine use is primarily a problem in Western and Southwestern states, especially in certain key cities.

There are valid concerns about the potential impact and spread of methamphetamine use, especially into the Midwest.

Using treatment admission rates as a proxy for the spread of methamphetamine use shows a dramatic shift over the last five years.

The following four slides illustrate clearly the pattern of the spread and the full extent of the problem.

While methamphetamine use is low, it continues to be a major concern due to the potential for rapid spread.

ONDCP/FEB02

MAINE

SOURCE: SAMHSA, OAS, TEDS

Methamphetamine Admission Rates (per 100,000)

In 1994, five states had serious methamphetamine problems -- Hawaii and four others, all in the far west.

> 55

< 3

No data

3-27

28-54

ONDCP/FEB02

MAINE



In 1996, ten states had serious methamphetamine problems, and the problem had spread into the midwest.

> 55

< 3

No data

3-27

28-54

ONDCP/FEB02

MAINE



In 1998, 13 states had serious problems, including four midwestern states -- the problem was worse all over the midwest.

> 55

< 3

No data

3-27

28-54

ONDCP/FEB02

MAINE



In 1999, the same 13 states still had serious problems, but two midwestern states showed improvement.

> 55

< 3

No data

3-27

28-54

ONDCP/FEB02

CURRENT DRUG USETRENDS AMONG YOUTH

BASED ON TWO NATIONAL SURVEYS FROM THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

MONITORING THE FUTURE STUDY (MTF) AND

NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ON DRUG ABUSE (NHSDA)

ONDCP/FEB02

Summary of Current Situation:The Monitoring the Future Survey

The MTF is a school-based survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th graders, conducted by the University ofMichigan’s Institute for Social Research. Data is collected in the spring, and is reflective of the nationalschool population. Selected finding from the 2001 Survey follow:

11.7% of 8th graders, 22.7% of 10th graders, and 25.7% of 12th graders were current users of an illicitdrug – that is they had used within 30 days prior to being surveyed.

26.8% of 8th graders has used an illicit drug in their lifetime, and about half of 10th graders (45.6%)and 12th grades (53.9%) had done so.

Marijuana is the most commonly used illicit drug among all three grades, 9.2% of 8th graders, 19.8%of 10th graders, and 22.4% of 12th graders were current users.

MDMA (ecstasy) use among all three grades appears to have leveled in 2000 – 5.2% of 8th graders,8% of 10th graders, and 11.7% of 12th graders have used MDMA in their lifetime.

MDMA use has been rising rapidly among youth in recent years – lifetime use among 12th gradersdoubled from 1998 to 2001 (from 5.8% to 11.7%). This follows a 28% increase the year before –MDMA also shows the largest increases in perceived availability of any drug in the 27-year history ofthe MTF. This year’s leveling in use is particularly encouraging since students’ (12th graders)perception of ecstasy’s availability continued to rise in 2000, from 51.4% in 2000 to 61.5% in 2001 –a 20% increase.

Unlike other drugs, inhalants are used more frequently by the youngest students, 4.0% percent of 8 th

graders are current users of inhalants, compared with 2.4% of 10th graders and 1.7% of 12th graders.

ONDCP/FEB02

Summary of Current Situation:The Monitoring the Future Survey (continued)

OPBRE/Dec. 2001

ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO USE

The most commonly used substance among all three grades is alcohol. More thanone-fifth (21.5) of 8th graders are current users of alcohol, increasing to 39.0% for10th graders, and 49.8% for 12th graders. And almost 30% of 12th graders reportedthey had consumed five or more drinks in a row in the last two weeks (prior to thesurvey).

In 2001, the declining trend observed for teen smoking over the past several yearscontinued. 12.2% of 8th graders, 21.3% of 10th graders, and 29.5% of 12th graderswere current smokers – down between 19% and 42% from their 11-year peaks inthe mid-1990s.

ONDCP/FEB02

Summary of Current Situation:The Monitoring the Future Survey (continued)

ATTITUDES AND BELIEFS REGARDING ILLICIT DRUG USE

Attitudes toward substance use, often seen as harbingers of changes in prevalence of use,showed few changes from 2000 to 2001.

Among 12th graders*, perceived harm from trying MDMA once or twice increased notably. Perceived harmfulness of regular marijuana use decreased among 8th graders. Perceived harm from trying inhalants once or twice increased among 8th and 10th graders. Perceived risk of harm from using LSD regularly declined among 8th and 10th graders. The proportion of seniors disapproving of heroin use without a needle decreased. Disapproval of steroid use decreased among seniors*. Perceived availability of MDMA increased sharply among seniors, as stated above*. Perceived availability of crack and of cocaine powder decreased among 10th graders Perceived availability of heroin declined among 10th graders. Perceived availability of tranquilizers increased among 8th graders. Perceived availability of steroids decreased among 10th graders.

ONDCP/FEB02

Summary of Current Situation:2000 National Household Survey

Among youth (ages 12-17), the rate of any illicit drug use in the past month is statistically unchanged, from 9.8 percent in 1999 to 9.7 percent in 2000. Heroin use in the past month declined significantly from 0.2 percent in 1999 to 0.1 percent in 2000, while rates of current use for other major drugs did not change significantly from the previous year.

The youngest subset of youth (ages 12-13) reported a significantly lower rate of current use of any illicit drug, from 3.9 percent in 1999 to 3.0 percent in 2000. Inhalant use in the past month decreased significantly from 1.3 percent in 1999 to 0.7 percent in 2000. Rates of use for other specific drugs did not change significantly over the same period.

However, for the oldest subset of youth (ages 16-17), some significant increases in current use were noted. There was a significant increase in past month nonmedical use of psychotherapeutic drugs, from 3.4 percent in 1999 to 4.3 percent in 2000. Within the psychotherapeutics category, past month nonmedical use of pain relievers increased significantly from 2.6 percent in 1999 to 3.3 percent in 2000. Current use of stimulants also increased significantly, from 0.8 percent to 1.2 percent. Methamphetamines, a category of stimulants, also showed a significant increase in this age subgroup, doubling from 0.3 percent in 1999 to 0.6 percent in 2000.

Youth attitudes are unchanged from last year. Perceptions of risk of drug use among youth show no statistically significant increases or decreases from 1999 to 2000. While perceptions of risk of marijuana, cocaine, heroin, and LSD use are stable, the percentage of youth reporting great risk in smoking one or more packs of cigarettes per day increased significantly from 60.7 percent in 1999 to 64.1 percent in 2000. Also showing improvement is the percentage of youth reporting great risk in drinking five or more drinks once or twice a week, from 42.0 percent to 43.2 percent.

Youth perception of the availability of drugs declined for each drug class. Significant declines in the percentage of youth reporting that marijuana was fairly or very easy to obtain declined from 56.5 percent in 1999 to 54.1 percent in 2000. Significant declines also were reported for cocaine (27.5 percent to 25.2 percent), crack (28.4 percent to 26.8 percent), heroin (18.1 to 17.0), and LSD (24.9 to 23.0).

ONDCP/FEB02

Drug use remains highest among 12th graders. More than 50 percent of them have tried an illicit drug, and

more than one in four are current users.

Percent Reporting Use of “Any Illicit Drug”

Source: Monitoring the Future Study

26.8

45.6

53.9

19.5

37.2

41.4

11.7

22.7

25.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

8th

10th

12th

30-Day

Annual

Lifetime

ONDCP/FEB02

By the time they are seniors, almost a quarter of youth are current marijuana users

and more than 1 in 20 use every day.

MarijuanaPercent Reporting Use


20.4

40.1

49

15.4

32.7

37

9.2

19.8

22.4

1.3

4.5

5.8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

8th

10th

12th

Daily

30 Day

Annual

Lifetime

ONDCP/FEB02

5.2

8

11.7

3.5

6.2

9.2

1.8

2.6

2.8

0 5 10 15

8th

10th

12th

30-Day

Annual

Lifetime

MDMA/ecstasy use is found in all grades.


MDMA/ecstasyPercent Reporting Use

ONDCP/FEB02

Cocaine use is less prevalent, but almost 9 percent of seniors have used cocaine during their lifetime.

Cocaine Percent Reporting Use


4.3

5.7

8.2

2.5

3.6

4.8

1.2

1.3

2.1

0 2 4 6 8 10

8th

10th

12th

30 Day

Annual

Lifetime

ONDCP/FEB02

1.7

1.7

1.8

1

0.9

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.4

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

8th

10th

12th

30 Day

Annual

Lifetime

Heroin use among students is low, but any use among students is a cause for great concern.


Heroin Percent Reporting Use

ONDCP/FEB02

50.5

70.1

79.7

41.9

63.5

73.3

21.5

39

49.8

13.2

24.9

29.7

0 20 40 60 80 100

8th

10th

12th

Lifetime Annual 30 Day 5+ Drinks/Past 2 Weeks

Alcohol is a serious problem among youth -- 30 percent of high school seniors and 25 percent

of 10th graders are heavy, binge drinkers.


Alcohol Percent Reporting Use

ONDCP/FEB02

36.6

52.8

61

12.2

21.3

29.5

5.5

12.2

19

0 20 40 60 80

8th

10th

12th

Daily

30-Day

Lifetime

More than one in five high school seniors are daily smokers.


CigarettesPercent Reporting Use

56

LONG TERM DRUG USE TRENDS

AMONG YOUTH

AND

SPECIAL DATA ABOUT

MARIJUANA USE

ONDCP

ONDCP/FEB02

While drug use is still unacceptably high, 2001 is the fifth year without significant changes in the current use of "Any Illicit Drug. ”

Current (past month) Use of Any Illicit Drug


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

8th 5.7 6.8 8.4 10.9 12.4 14.6 12.9 12.1 12.2 11.9 11.7

10th 11.6 11 14 18.5 20.2 23.2 23 21.5 22.1 22.5 22.7

12th 16.4 14.4 18.3 21.9 23.8 24.6 26.2 25.6 25.9 24.9 25.7

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

ONDCP/FEB02

Marijuana continues to predominate youth drug use.

Current (past month) Marijuana Use.


0

5

10

15

20

25

8th 3.2 3.7 5.1 7.8 9.1 11.3 10.2 9.7 9.7 9.1 9.2

10th 8.7 8.1 10.9 15.8 17.2 20.4 20.5 18.7 19.4 19.7 19.8

12th 13.8 11.9 15.5 19 21.2 21.9 23.7 22.8 23.1 21.6 22.4

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

ONDCP/FEB02

MDMA/ecstasy use has increased notably among students in each grade, but there is some limited good news for 2001.

Current (past month) MDMA/ecstasy Use.


0

1

2

3

4

8th 1 1 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.8

10th 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.6 2.6

12th 2 1.6 1.5 2.5 3.6 2.8

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

ONDCP/FEB02

Trends in 30-day use of alcoholare generally stable.

Current (past month) Alcohol Use


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

8th 25.1 26.1 26.2 25.5 24.6 26.2 24.5 23 24 22.4 21.5

10th 42.8 39.9 41.5 39.2 38.8 40.4 40.1 38.8 40 41 39

12th 54 51.3 51 50.1 51.3 50.8 52.7 52 51 50 49.8

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

ONDCP/FEB02

Trends in current Cigarette use show declines for all grade, with significant declines since 1998 for all grades.

Current (past month) Cigarette Use.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

8th 14.3 15.5 16.7 18.6 19.1 21 19.4 19.1 17.5 14.6 12.2

10th 20.8 21.5 24.7 25.4 27.9 30.4 29.8 27.6 25.7 23.9 21.3

12th 28.3 27.8 29.9 31.2 33.5 34 36.5 35.1 34.6 31.4 29.5

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

ONDCP/FEB02

For those age 12 to 17, there is a clear relationship between the amount of alcohol consumed and current use of an

illicit drug other than alcohol.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Perc

en

t w

ho

rep

ort

past

mo

nth

dru

g u

se

Heavy drinker Binge drinker Other drinker non-drinker

Past Month Illicit Drug Use by Intensity of Alcohol Use


ONDCP/FEB02

For those age 12 to 17, there is also a clear relationship between smoking cigarettes and current illicit drug use.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Percen

t w

ho r

ep

ort

past

mon

th d

ru

g u

se

Current-smoker Non-smoker

Past Month Illicit Drug Use by Whether or not They Smoke Cigarettes


ONDCP/FEB02

Percentage of those ages 12 to 17 who reported aggressive behavior in past 6 months, by number of days marijuana was used in the past year

Aggressive Anti-Social Behavior Among Youth is Clearly Linked to Frequency of

Marijuana Use

Source: NHSDA Household Survey Data, 1994-1996

Destroyed Other's PropertyPhysically Attacked People

Per

cen

tag

e o

f ti

mes

ac

tivi

ty w

as

en

gag

ed

in

.

Frequency of Marijuana Use

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

No Use 1 to 11 12 to 51 52 Plus

0

5

10

15

20

25

No Use 1 to 11 12 to 51 52 Plus

ONDCP/FEB02

Percentage of those ages 12 to 17 who reported delinquent behavior in past 6 months, by number of days marijuana was used in the past year

Marijuana use is also related to other delinquent behaviors

Source: NHSDA Household Survey Data, 1994-1996

Cutting Classes Stealing

Per

cen

tag

e o

f ti

mes

act

ivit

y w

as e

ng

aged

in.

Frequency of Marijuana Use

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

No Use 1 to 11 12 to 51 52 plus

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

No Use 1 to 11 12 to 51 52 plus

ONDCP/FEB02

Percent Dependent on or who Abuse Illicit Drugs Among Adults, by Age Marijuana First Used (Dependence Based on DSM-4 Diagnostic Criteria)

10.5

4.4

2

0

3

6

9

12

Age 14 or Younger Age 15-17 Age 18 and Older

Drug Dependence as an Adult is Clearly Related to the Age at which a Person Starts Using Marijuana. The Younger the Age

at First Use, the Higher the Rate of Adult Drug Dependency.


ONDCP/FEB02

Role and Objectives of Drug Prevention

Deter new use and encourage existing users to stop using

Take steps to deter progression into more serious use

Break intergenerational cycle

Reduce risk factors and increase protective factors

Improve knowledge and attitudes

Reduce drug and alcohol problem behaviors

ONDCP/FEB02

0

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Marijuana Cocaine Inhalants Hallucinogens

Initiates (1000s)

Marijuana and cocaine initiation show a downturn, but hallucinogen and inhalant initiates are trending upwards.

Source: SAMHSA, 2000 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

ONDCP/FEB02

0

50

100

150

200

250

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Heroin initiation rates are lower than for any other major drug. Movement over the past few years illustrates how rapidly the heroin

situation can change.

Heroin Initiates (1000s)


Data not available for 1982

ONDCP/FEB02

What hypotheses seem most promising to account for the observed changes [in drug use] ?

Possible factors thought to have an affect on Risk Perception

Source: ONDCP Report on the Meeting of the Ann Arbor Group, June 1994.

Rates of delinquent behaviors and risk takingUse of gateway drugs (cigarettes)Changes in perceived harmfulness of drug useImpacts of mass culture (e.g., media)Changes in informal learning about risks of drug useChanges in Executive Leadership (Federal, State, local, civic)Changes in illicit drug availability and lower price/higher purity

(e.g., Marijuana, Heroin)

ONDCP/FEB02

Consequences of Drug Use

Drug Use

Consequencesof Drug Use

CrimeViolence Health

Economic

Family Community

ONDCP/FEB02

Consequences of Drug Use•The Social Costs of illicit drug abuse reached $143 billion in 1998 •U.S. drug users spend substantially more than $60 billion annually to purchase drugs •Cocaine and heroin problems seriously impact our Hospital Emergency Departments: cocaine continues to be the most frequently mentioned illicit drug, followed by heroin and marijuana. For the most recent year (2000), heroin visits rose, cocaine visits were statistically unchanged, and marijuana rose, but the change was not statistically significant •There are more than 1.5 million drug arrests each year -- half of all arrestees test positive for illicit drug use

•There is a high correlation between drug use and gang behavior, violence, threats, and carrying a gun to school •There is a high incidence of property crime among drug users

•Violence is common to drug trafficking

ONDCP/FEB02

The money spent on drugs saps our economic power

U.S. Users Spend $63.2 Billion Annually

Billions of Dollars (Projections for 1999)

2.31.6

10.411.9

37.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

Cocaine Heroin Marijuana Meth Other

Source: ONDCP Paper, What America’s Users Spend on

Illegal Drugs

ONDCP/FEB02

The Economic Costs relating to drug abuse are increasing, reaching $143.4 billion in 1998.

Dol

lars

, in

Bil

lion

s

$44.1$58.3 $66.9

$102.2 $109.8

$143.4

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

1985 1988 1990 1992 1995 1998

Source: Office of National Drug Control Policy, 2001.

ONDCP/FEB02

$98.5

$32.1$12.9

Health Care

Lost Earnings

Other Impacts

The bulk of the economic costs relate to lost earning potential.

(Billions of dollars)


ONDCP/FEB02

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Other Costs

Health Care

ProductivityLosses

Estimated cost (in millions)

All components of the costs of drug abuse to society are increasing at about the same rate.


ONDCP/FEB02

62%

38%


Total is $143 billion

Crime-Related $88.9B

Non-Crime-Related $54.5B

The costs of crime that can be attributed to drug abuse are substantial.

ONDCP/FEB02

$2,479

$548

$4,827

$12,688

$30,133

$24,627

$9,096

$4,489

$548

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000

Economic costs to victims

Private legal defense

Federal spending to reduce supply

Corrections

Incarceration productivity costs

Crime career productivity costs

Police protection

Legal adjudication

Private legal defense

Total: $89 billion(Millions of dollars)

Breakdown of crime-related costs, 1998


ONDCP/FEB02

Productivity Cost Components

Lost productivity from: Premature death due to drug abuse Drug abuse related illness Institutionalization/hospitalization Victims of crime Incarceration Crime careers

ONDCP/FEB02

Health Care Cost Components

Community-based specialty treatment Federally provided specialty treatment Support for drug abuse related services Medical consequences of drug abuse

hospital and ambulatory carespecial disease costscrime victim health care costshealth administration costs

ONDCP/FEB02

Other Cost Components Goods and services lost to crime

Criminal justice system and other public costs police protection legal adjudication state and federal corrections local corrections federal spending to reduce drug supply

Private costs private legal defense property damage for victims of crime

Social welfare

ONDCP/FEB02

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999* 2000*

Estimated cost (in millions)

The economic costs of drug abuse increased at an average annual rate of 5.9 percent from 1992 to 1998.


*1999 and 2000 are projections.

2000dollars

currentdollars

ONDCP/FEB02

Drug-related murders have declined substantially over the past 10 years.

Source: FBI, Uniform Crime Reports

Murders Related to Narcotic Drug Laws

Number of

Deaths

1,027

1,402 1,367 1,3531,302 1,295

1,239

1,031

843 802

682581 572

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

ONDCP/FEB02

In 2000, more than 600,000 drug-related ED episodes were reported in DAWN -- cocaine is the most often mentioned drug.

Number of Drug Emergency Episodes

4,511

4,969

13,513

174,896

601,776

96,446

97,287

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

MDMA

GHB

Meth

Marijuana

Heroin

Cocaine

All Episodes

Source: SAMHSA, Drug Abuse Warning Network, 1999.

ONDCP/FEB02

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Heroin Marijuana

Since 1990 marijuana ED mentions have been rising. In 2000 they were at about the same level as Heroin.

Source: HHS Drug Abuse Warning Network

Hospital Emergency Room Mentions, Heroin and Marijuana

ONDCP/FEB02

Since 1990, ED mentions of marijuana/hashish have increased by more than 500 percent.

16,25123,997

28,873

40,18345,271

53,789

64,744

76,870

87,15096,446

15,706

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Number of Marijuana/Hashish Mentions

Source: SAMHSA, Drug Abuse Warning Network.

ONDCP/FEB02

Among youth, ED mentions of marijuana/ hashish have shown a seven-fold increase since 1990.

2,1303,104

4,247

6,539

7,974

9,98211,056

13,135 12,734

15,683

2,170

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Number of Marijuana/Hashish Mentions (Ages 12-17)


ONDCP/FEB02

Mentions per 100,000 population for Marijuana

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

12-17 18-25 26-34 35+

Rates for ED mentions of marijuana are highest for young adults and are increasing.


ONDCP/FEB02

Drug-related criminal activity is still a serious problem

Source: NIDA, Drug Procurement Study.

NIDA study of drug users not in treatment found:

-- 46 percent report legal-only sources of income

-- 10 percent report illegal-only sources of income

-- 42 percent report both legal and illegal sources

-- 2 percent report no income

-- 30 percent of illegal income was generated from property crimes; 42 percent was from commercial sex

ONDCP/FEB02

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

Drug-related arrests continue at high levels

Source: Uniform Crime Reports, FBI.

Arrests for Drug Abuse Violations (in millions)

ONDCP/FEB02

Arrests for Drug Abuse Violations, 2000

9.3%

5.6%

4.1%

40.9%

24.2%

15.8%

Sale/ManufactureHeroin/CocaineSale/ManufactureMarijuanaSale/ManufactureOther DrugsPossession Marijuana

PossessionHeroin/CocainePossession otherDangerous Drugs

Reason For Drug Arrest

Source: Uniform Crime Reports, FBI.

ONDCP/FEB02

Less than 7 percent of drug trafficking convictions in State Courts are for marijuana

Breakdown of Drug Trafficking Convictions, by Drug

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

6.9%

60.2%

39.7%

27.4%

63%

ONDCP/FEB02

0

350

700

1,050

1,400

1,750

2,100

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000

The total number of people in State or Federal prisons or local jails reached more than two million in 2000. However the rate

of annual increase was the lowest since 1972.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2001

State Prisons1,236,476

Local Jails621,149

Federal Prisons145,416

Nu

mb

er o

f In

mat

es, i

n M

illi

ons

ONDCP/FEB02

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

The number of Prisoners Serving Time for Drug Offenses is Climbing- Up More Than 1000 Percent Since 1980

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics

251,200 Drug Offenders in State Prisons in 1999

68,360 Drug Offendersin Federal Prison in 1999

95

Drug Treatment

ONDCP

ONDCP/FEB02

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

19

80

19

82

19

87

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

Clients in Specialty Treatment for Drugs and Alcohol (one-day census of active clients)

More than 1 million personsare in treatment, every day

Source: Uniform Facility Data Set, DHHS/SAMHSA, 1995-98

ONDCP/FEB02

$2,051

$3,813$2,895

$4,160

$7,630

$13,902

$7,954

$5,259

$2,547$2,575

$0

$3,000

$6,000

$9,000

$12,000

$15,000

AmbulatoryOutpatient

Long-TermResidential

Short-TermResidential

OutpatientMethadone

Short-TermHospital

Cost

Benefit

On average, the benefits of drug treatment outweigh the costs by a margin of 3 to 1.

Source: CSAT, National Evaluation Data Services Report

ONDCP/FEB02

More than half those in treatment are being treated in outpatient settings

Percentage of Clients in Treatment, by Facility Setting

Source: Uniform Facility Data Set, DHHS/SAMHSA, Dec 97

54.7

20.2

12.8

8.3

4.1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Percents

Community Settings

Correctional Settings

Physical Health

Mental Health

Free Standing

ONDCP/FEB02

44.5%

27.9%

27.6%

Alcohol OnlyDrugs OnlyDrugs & Alcohol

Presenting problems can include both alcohol and other drugs, but illicit drug use is present for 72 percent of

those in treatment

Source: Treatment Episode Data Set, DHHS/SAMHSA, Sept 2000

ONDCP/FEB02

Primary Substance of Abuse for Treatment Admissions

20.2%

14.9%

14.9%13.3%

4.5%

5.9%

26.3%

Alcohol only

Alcohol w/drug

Opiates

Cocaine

Marijuana

Stimulants

Other

SOURCE: TEDS, 1998

ONDCP/FEB02

Referral source for treatment admissions, by primary substance

38.7

65

3617.5

27.9

30.3

11.4

26.653.9

42

18.218.2

24.3 12.4 13.3

12.8 13.1 16.2 16.85.5

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Individual Criminal justice A/D or health care provider Other

SOURCE: TEDS, 1998

ONDCP/FEB02

A total of 15.3 million persons were drug or alcohol dependent or abusers in the past year.

Number of Dependents or Abusers (in 1000s)

15,275

12,830

4,465

2,020

0 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 18000

Alcohol or AnyIllicit Drug

Alcohol

Any Illicit Drug

Alcohol and AnyIllicit Drug

ONDCP/FEB02

4.5 million Americans reported substance dependence* or abuse* in 2000.

1,104

182

430

190

778

2,953

4,465

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Prescription

Inhalants

Hallucinogens

Heroin

Cocaine

Marijuana

Any Illicit Drug

(nonmedical use)

Abusers or Drug Dependents (in 1000s)

*Dependence or abuse is based on the definition found in the 4th Edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV)

ONDCP/FEB02

Only half of those in the household population 12 and older that were drug dependent actually received drug

treatment in the 12 months prior to the interview.

6.3

1.20.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Current DrugUser

DrugDependent

ReceivedTreatment

Percent of Population 12 or Older

.

ONDCP/FEB02

One year after treatment

Illicit drug use decreased 50 percent

Illegal activity decreased 60 percent

Drug selling fell by nearly 80 percent

Arrests by down more than 60 percent

Trading sex for money or drugs down by nearly 60 percent

Homelessness dropped by 43 percent and receipt of welfare by 11 percent

Employment increased 20 percent

Source: Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Study (DATOS) National Treatment Improvement Evaluation Study (NTIES)

THE EFFECTS OF DRUG TREATMENT LAST

ONDCP/FEB02

FIVE YEARS AFTER TREATMENT

Users of any illicit drugs reduced by 21 percent Cocaine users by 45 percent Marijuana users by 28 percent Crack users by 17 percent Heroin users by 14 percent

Numbers engaging in illegal activity significantly reduced 56 percent fewer stealing cars 38 percent fewer breaking and entering 30 percent fewer selling drugs

23 percent fewer victimizing others 38 percent fewer injecting drugs

34 percent fewer homeless

THE EFFECTS OF DRUG TREATMENT LAST

(continued)

Source: Services Research Outcome Study (SROS)

ONDCP/FEB02

In summary

Drug dependent people who participate in drug treatment

decrease their drug usedecrease their criminal activityincrease their employmentimprove their social and intrapersonal functioningimprove their physical health

Drug use and criminal activity decrease for virtually all who enter treatment, with increasingly better results the longer they stay in treatment.

108

Supply Reduction

ONDCP

ONDCP/FEB02

Interdiction must be included as a key element in a comprehensive approach

Interdiction alone cannot greatly impact the drug flow. It must be supported by other programs and approaches, if it is to have the desired impact.

Without production control at the source, with every interdiction the producers can simply increase production. We must focus attention on destroying the source of drugs in the prime source countries.

Targeted interdiction based on solid intelligence data will have the greatest longterm impact.

ONDCP/FEB02

The Source Country Focus Provides for better intelligence, so interdiction assets can be

strategically placed and efficiently used

Focuses attention close to where drugs are produced, increasing the leverage from each action

Limits production to maximize the impact from interdiction and eradication

Interdiction is most effective when it occurs closest to the source because alternative supplies of coca leaf and base are limited

Thus, stopping the flow before the drugs can be moved into the broader expanse of the transit zone is the most effective strategy

ONDCP/FEB02

Breaking Up the Delivery System

Our strategy also focuses on breaking up the delivery system, at all levels

The air bridge between Peru and Colombia has historically been seen as the weakest link, and, over the years, there has been some success there

Peru and Colombia end game participation is key to success

Successfully attacking the air bridge and other key supply routes can cause backups all the way back to the sources of coca leaf, depress the price, and impact profits

ONDCP/FEB02

An estimated 80% of the MDMA (Ecstasy) in the U.S. is thought to come from the Netherlands and Belgium

Global Drug Threat

Opium Production

Coca Production

MEXICO

COLOMBIA

PERU

BOLIVIA

GOLDEN

TRIANGLE

GOLDEN

CRESCENT

MDMA Production

• Cocaine fuels organized crime/violence; corruption; and addiction• Threatens regional stability• Social costs to U.S.: more than $ 140B/year • 52,000 drug related deaths/yr in U.S.

90% of all cocaineconsumed in U.S.comes from Colombia

About 200 MT

About 150 MT

About 278 MT

75% of theheroin seizedin the U.S.comes fromColombiaor Mexico

ONDCP/FEB02

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Bolivia

Peru

Colombia

Global Drug Production and Trafficking

Amphetamine Type Stimulants

Cocaine

MDMA

Pot

enti

al C

ocai

ne P

rodu

ctio

n (m

t)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Pot

enti

al O

pium

Pro

duct

ion

(mt)

Mexico

Colombia

SE Asia

SWAsia

Heroin

ONDCP/FEB02

The Worldwide Cocaine ThreatA Hemispheric Perspective

U.S. Portion of Worldwide Consumption

Declining 1990 = 400 MT 2000 = 300 MT

Worldwide Consumption Increasing

1990 = 500 MT 2000 = 600 MT

All coca grown in theAndean Region

Andean Region Coca & Poppy Cultivation1995-2000 Success and Displacement

BOLIVIA• Coca cultivation decreased 70% to 15K hectares• Alternative development and forced eradication• Sound economic policies but slow growth

PERU• Coca cultivation decreased 70% to 34K hectares• Air-bridge denial and abandonment• Alternative development and forced eradication• Democratic transition, economy slow

COLOMBIA• Coca cultivation increased 166% to 136K hectares• Cocaine yield per hectare increased 250%• Opium poppy cultivation reached 2500 hectares• Displaced cultivation from Peru and Bolivia• Violence increasing as peace process falters and economy lags

ONDCP/FEB02

ONDCP/FEB02

Nature of the Problemand the Interdiction Response

0

50

100

150

200

250

CO

CA

INE

SE

IZE

D (

MT

)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Source Zone Transit Zone Arrival Zone

1990 2000CHANGES IN THREAT

• World consumption dominated by US•Transit movement via aircraft•Cultivation primarily from Peru and Bolivia

• Increasing European consumption•Transit movement via maritime vessels•Cultivation primarily from Colombia

TRANSIT ZONE

SOURCEZONE

ARRIVAL ZONE

50%

3% direct

16%

21% 10%

SOURCE: Annual Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement, April 2001ONDCP/FEB02

ONDCP/FEB02

0

400

600

800

1,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

460

230

240

435

300

325

350

200

240

435

175

520

145

580

METRIC TONS HCl

215 150 70 43

200

930 950 875 825 765 768

ANDEAN POTENTIAL COCAINE PRODUCTION 1995 - 2000

PERU

COLOMBIA

BOLIVIA

TOTALS

ONDCP/FEB02

54 percent

Mexico/CentralAmerican Corridor

1999 Estimate of Cocaine Flowfrom South America

43 percentCaribbean Corridor

3 percentDirect to U.S.

ONDCP/FEB02

Estimated Cocaine Flow to the United States: Calendar Year 1999

512Metric Tons

DepartSouth

Americafor U.S.

Arrival Zone Seizures

Transit Zone Seizures

MEXICO /CENTRAL

AMERICANCORRIDOR

-60 MT -37 MT

3% 15 MT

43%220 MT

54%277 MT

75 METRIC TONS DETECTED

DEPARTING FOR NON-US MARKETS

-14 MT -7 MT

-12 MTDIRECT TO CONTINENTAL U.S.

CARIBBEANCORRIDOR

382 MTPotentially

Arrives in the U.S.

ONDCP/FEB02

EUROPE 92%

AFRICA < 1%

CANADA 7%

ASIA < 1%

1999 COCAINE FLOW DIRECT TO NON-U.S. MARKETS -- 75 MT TOTAL

ONDCP/FEB02

Colombia - Crisis in 1999

DRUGS• Colombia producing 74% of world coca leaf -- and 90% of all cocaine HCl shipped to U.S.• Cultivation exploding and concentrating in isolated, guerrilla-dominated areas east of Andes

GUERRILLAS• Especially FARC, moving heavily into Colombia’s expanding drug production• Becoming stronger and more capable of attacking government

PARAMILITARIES• Maintaining some links with COMIL, at least at local level• Challenging FARC in the south, and vying for access to drug revenue

ECONOMY• Going into deep recession, first in 50 years• Foreign investment drying up• Domestic capital fleeing• World bank seeking austerity budget

PEACE PROCESS• Began in 1998• DMZ established• Process moving slowly• FARC unwilling to make concessions

ONDCP/FEB02

GOC Response - Plan Colombia (July 1999)

Comprehensive Strategy - Peace, Counternarcotics, Economy - Justice Reform and Human Rights

Goals - 30% reduction in coca by end of 2002 - 50% reduction in coca by end of 2006 - Reduce insurgent drug profits - Increase pressure for real peace negotiations - Spur economic growth

Estimated Total Cost - $7.5B with $GOC paying $4.0B - First nationwide counternarcotics effort

ONDCP/FEB02

USG Response - FY 2000 Emergency Supplemental(July 2000)

• Amount ($1.319B) is in addition to regular appropriations • Augments existing $300M appropriated for annual regional programs (all sources)• Expands existing military and alternative development programs

Support to Colombia - $938M

Support to Region - $382M

TWO MAJOR COMPONENTS

ONDCP/FEB02

Widespread Effects of Narcotrafficking

• Adversely impacts democracy and social development

• Destabilizes governments

• Undermines rule of law

• Exacerbates corruption

• Distorts legitimate economies • Inhibits investment and economic growth

ONDCP/FEB02

• Colombia’s drug-fueled violence, exploding drug production, economic distortion and efforts to combat them have regional implications and require a regional approach

Implications for Andean Region

ONDCP/FEB02

• Promote and support democracy and democratic institutions

• Foster sustainable economic development and trade liberalization

• Significantly reduce the supply of illegal drugs to the U.S. at the source, while simultaneously reducing U.S. demand

Proposed Andean Regional Initiative supports seven countries and supports overarching United States goals in the Andes

SUMMARY

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ONDCP/FEB02

Overview of Successes Over Time

Development of expanded international cooperation and consensus, with aggressive international engagement.

Increased European cooperation. Hemispheric Strategy, Action Plan, and Multilateral Evaluation

Methodology. Reduction in potential cocaine production, with cultivation in Peru

down 66 percent, 1995 to 1999, and cultivation in Bolivia down 55 percent in the same time period.

Cali and Medillin Cartels dismantled. Improved interagency coordination of interdiction, C3I, and Force

Structure, with new Intelligence Architecture (GCIP). Improved budget and resource processes, performance targets and

measures, Intelligence Architecture.

ONDCP/FEB02

Meeting New Challenges

Concentration of cocaine industry in Colombia.

Adapting programs in Peru and Bolivia. Increasing regional coordination. Countering globalization of drug industries, with

internationalization of money laundering. Responding to increases/improvements in trafficker technology. Continue to improve interdiction performance. Arrival Zone planning and coordination (AZIC). More accurate flow modeling for cocaine, heroin, marijuana, and

methamphetamine.

ONDCP/FEB02

Positive News on Worldwide Opium/Heroin Production

For the U.S. heroin market, the predominate supplier is Colombia.

Mexico also supplies the U.S. market with black tar and brown heroin, but there are indications that higher purity Mexican heroin is entering the market, in competition with high purity Colombian heroin.

In recent years the UNDCP has reported that the world’s largest producer of opium/heroin was Afghanistan. Actions in the past year have radically reduced production.

This success shows what can be done when political will and alternative development are in place and working together. The lesson learned should not be lost, even given the current world situation and the impact of terrorism in Afghanistan.

The following slides illustrate the current heroin situation, both in Southwest Asia and worldwide.

Southwest Asia: Opium Poppy Cultivation, 1992-2001

A Success for Eradication and Alternative Development

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 2001

Pakistan

Afghanistan

Hectares

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Afghanistan: Potential Opium Production has dropped to near zero.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 2001

Hectares

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Afghanistan vs. the World Opium Production 1992-2001

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 2001

Rest of World

Afghanistan

Metric Tons

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World Potential Opium Production1991-2001

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01*

Colombia

Mexico

Pakistan

Thailand

Vietnam

Laos

Afghanistan

Burma

* Values for Latin America are projected

3,441 3,3893,671

3,302

4,068

5,106 5,000

4,452 4,263

5,082

1,264

Metric Tons

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ONDCP/FEB02

FEDERAL-WIDE DRUG SEIZURE SYSTEM

ANNUAL SEIZURES, BY FISCAL YEAR

Source: DEA's Federal Drug Seizure System

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Cocaine(MetricTons)

107 111.7 137.9 110.8 140.6 106.2 115.4 114.5 120.7 132.6 106.5

Cannabis(MetricTons)

227 304.3 357.2 362.5 472.9 607.6 663.1 699.2 806.5 1,052.7 1,187.8

Heroin(Kilos)

773 1,391.3 1,157.4 1,594.8 1,312.8 1,347.5 1,530 1,415.7 1,587.2 1,239.4 1,414.5

Documents

1 Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) Primary Mission: TO LEAD NATIONAL EFFORTS TO REDUCE ILLICIT DRUG USE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES