1 „New supply chains for seafood and their impacts on price formation – The case of frozen pangasius fillets and the German fish market 01.June 2010 Helsinki

„New supply chains for seafood and their impacts on price formation – The case of frozen pangasius fillets and the

German fish market

01.June 2010 Helsinki

EAFE-Workshop

“Optimising Value Chains in Fisheries”

Michael W. Ebeling, vTI / Dr. Markus Keller, AIPCE/CEP

New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price formation!

Does the import of frozen pangasius fillets have an impact on the price formation of EU producers?

For example: Germany!

Why?

Market of relevant size, Fisherman are threatened, Price sensitive consumers, Data are publicly available.


Development of landing prices and volumes for fresh, whole cod and plaice from January 2004 until December 2009

Comparison of landing prices of cod in Germany and Denmark

Calculation of the strength of statistical connection between landing and import prices for cod and plaice

A descriptive method to analyse impacts was chosen and in-cludes:

- Part I -


Development of import prices and volumes of frozen fillets of pan-gasius in Germany from January 2004 until December 2009

Development of import prices and volumes of Alaska-pollock and cod from January 2004 until December 2009

Comparison of price formation of pangasius frozen fillets vs different species

Calculation of the strength of statistical connnection for price formation of pangasius vs different species


- Part II -


Results, if time is available!


- Part III -

Graph. 1: COD landing volumes in Germany

y = -1,3712x + 866,64

R2 = 0,0077

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

month

Tons

Cod landing volume Linear (Cod landing volume)

Graph. 2: COD landing prices in Germany

y = 0,0003x + 2,4421

R2 = 3E-05

month

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

€/Kg

Cod landing volume Cod landing price Linear (Cod landing price)

Graph. 3: COD landing volumes and prices in Germany

y = -1,3712x + 866,64

R2 = 0,0077

y = 0,0003x + 2,4421

R2 = 3E-05

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

month

Tons

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

€/Kg

Cod landing volume Cod landing priceLinear (Cod landing volume) Linear (Cod landing price)

Graph. 4: PLAICE landing volumes and prices in Germany

y = -0,9931x + 303,7

R2 = 0,0309y = -0,005x + 2,0078

R2 = 0,1148

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

month

Tons

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

€/Kg

Plaice landing volume Plaice landing priceLinear (Plaice landing volume) Linear (Plaice landing price)

Graph. 5: FRESH COD import volumes and prices in Germany

y = -0,6965x + 148,43

R2 = 0,0631

y = 0,0057x + 4,0321

R2 = 0,0316

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

month

Tons

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

€/Kg

Fresh Cod import volume Fresh Cod import priceLinear (Fresh Cod import volume) Linear (Fresh Cod import price)

Graph. 6: FRESH PLAICE import volumes and prices in Germany

y = -0,6786x + 154,31

R2 = 0,031

y = 0,0031x + 3,5775

R2 = 0,0303

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

month

Tons

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

€/Kg

Fresh Plaice import volume Fresh Plaice import priceLinear (Fresh Plaice import volume) Linear (Fresh Plaice import price)

Graph. 7: Comparison of landing prices for COD in D and DK

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

month

Kr.

/Kg

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

€/kg

Cod landing price DK Cod landing price Germany

Graph. 8: Import of frozen COD-FILLETS into Germany

y = 0,0208x + 3,9451

R2 = 0,5037

y = -4,1092x + 1228,1

R2 = 0,043

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

month

Tons

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

€/Kg

Frozen Cod-fillets import volume Frozen Cod-fillets import priceLinear (Frozen Cod-fillets import price) Linear (Frozen Cod-fillets import volume)

Graph. 9: Import of frozen AP-FILLETS into Germany

y = 0,0127x + 1,5983

R2 = 0,6199

y = 50,371x + 10925

R2 = 0,1527

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

month

Tons

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

€/Kg

Frozen AP-fillets import volume Frozen AP-fillets import priceLinear (Frozen AP-fillets import price) Linear (Frozen AP-fillets import volume)Linear (Frozen AP-fillets import volume)

Graph. 10: Import of frozen PANGA-FILLETS into Germany

y = 38,874x - 19,724

R2 = 0,8836

y = -0,0054x + 2,4085

R2 = 0,2096

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

5.000

month

Tons

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

€/Kg

Froz. Panga-fillets import volume Froz. Panga-fillets import priceLinear (Froz. Panga-fillets import volume) Linear (Froz. Panga-fillets import price)

Results of correlation-calculationr = …

(-1 to +1)Pangasius

fr. fillet price

Pangasius fr. fillet volume

r = …(-1 to +1)

Pangasius fr. fillet price


Cod land.volume 0,01 - 0,05 Cod fillet volume 0,02 - 0,23

Cod land. price - 0,03 - 0,07 Cod fillet price - 0,32 0,60

Plaice land. vol. 0,07 - 0,11 AP fillet volume - 0,06 0,29

Plaice land. price 0,18 - 0,41 AP fillet price - 0,21 0,79

Cod import vol. 0,07 - 0,17 DK Cod lan.price 0,10 0,17

Cod import price 0,16 0,09

Plaice import vol. 0,02 - 0,13

Plaice imp. price 0,24 0,13


(-1 to +1)Pangasius

fr. fillet price


r = …(-1 to +1)



Cod land.volume -0,09 - 0,06 Cod fillet volume 0,28

Cod land. price 0,01 -0,11 Cod fillet price 0,40

Plaice land. vol. 0,07 - 0,03 AP fillet volume 0,16

Plaice land. price - 0,52 AP fillet price 0,78

Cod import vol. - 0,01 DK Cod lan.price 0,17

Cod import price -0,01 Saithe land. vol. 0,16

Plaice import vol. - 0,03 Saithe land. price

0,35

Plaice imp. price 0,05


(-1 to +1)Pangasius

fr. fillet price


r = …(-1 to +1)



Cod land.volume -0,09 - 0,11 Cod fillet volume 0,02 - 0,23

Cod land. price 0,01 0,01 Cod fillet price - 0,32 0,60

Plaice land. vol. - 0,02 AP fillet volume - 0,06 0,29

Plaice land. price - 0,36 AP fillet price - 0,21 0,79

Cod import vol. 0,07 - 0,04 DK Cod lan.price 0,10 0,17

Cod import price 0,16 0,19 Saithe land. vol. 0,16

Plaice import vol. 0,02 - 0,13 Saithe land. price

0,40

Plaice imp. price 0,24 0,13

Graph. 11: Has Panga influenced prices of...?

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09month

Tons

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

€/Kg

Frozen Panga-fillets import volume Cod landing volumesCod landing price Panga price frozen fillets


0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09month

Tons

0

1

2

3

€/Kg

Frozen Panga-fillets import volume Plaice landingPlaice landing-price Panga price frozen fillets


0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09month

Tons

0

1

2

3

€/Kg

Frozen Panga-fillets import volumeAP price frozen fillets Panga price frozen fillets


Results:

1. At least for the price formation in Germany, there is no statistical connection between increasing volumes of frozen pangasius fillets and landing prices for cod. But landing prices and volumes for cod are correlated by -0,58.

2. Regarding landing prices of plaice a statistical connection with in-creasing volumes of imported frozen pangasius fillets can be stated.


Results:

3. A strong statistical relation between imported pangasius fillets, cod fillets and Alaska-pollock fillets can be observed.

4. Landing prices of cod and plaice show a significant higher vola-tility and seasonal dependence than import prices for the ana-lysed species.

5. The level of import prices for cod has reached an all-time high in late 2008 – even when pangasius was imported at increased prices.


Outlook:

Price formation on first sales prices have to be proven against:

- Development of quota (availability in general)

- Market share of the species

- General fish consumption trend in the country/countries of

final destination

- Price elasticity of the final fish product on consumer level

- NGOs fish shopping guides

Thank you for your attention !

Documents

1 „New supply chains for seafood and their impacts on price formation – The case of frozen pangasius fillets and the German fish market 01.June 2010 Helsinki