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Mission Goal 3: Weather and Water

Research Plan FY 06 – FY 10

Louis W. Uccellini

February 24, 2004

Overview

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Key Factors

• Research is Mission Driven: Goals Provided by “Service” Components

• Consistent with FY06 Weather and Water Program Plan/Baseline Assessments

• Linked Explicitly with NWS Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP)

• Emphasize the Need to Leverage Other Agencies

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National Needs

National Needs Have Been Prioritized

• Extreme Weather

• Drought and Fresh Water Availability

• Air Quality

• Coastal Zones

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Where Are We Headed:Long Term Service Delivery Goals

2000 Future

Tornadoes (Lead Time) 12 Minutes 1 Hour

Severe Thunderstorms (Lead Time) 18 Minutes 2 Hours

Flash Floods (Lead Time) 43 Minutes 1 Hour

Water Resources Information Limited On Demand

Hurricanes (Lead Time) 24 Hours 3 Days

Winter Storm Warnings (Lead Time) 9 Hours Several Days

Air Quality (Lead Time) N/A Several Days

Space Weather (Lead Time) Hours Geomagnetic Storm – 5 Days

Solar Radiation Storm – 2 Days

Coastal Winds and Waves (Lead Time)

Minutes Convective Storms – 5 Hours

Gales & Storms – 3 Days

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Research Plan Strategy

• Focus on Four Key Improvement Thrusts Improve Weather Forecasts, Warnings, Information, and

Services (Including Severe Wx, Hurricanes, Winter Storms, Quantitative Precipitation, Floods, Fire Wx, Space Wx, etc.)

Integrate NOAA Assets to Deliver Water Resource Predictions

Establish National Air Quality Capability in Partnership with EPA

Integrate and Improve NOAA’s Environmental Information Products and Services for Nation’s Coastal Zones

• Advance Two Enabling Capabilities Integrated Observations Environmental Modeling

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Enabling CapabilitiesImprovements Must Occur Here

• Monitor & Observe: Surface, ocean, and atmosphere observations – Needed for forecasts and warnings, models, verification, and

validation– Includes NEXRAD, ASOS, radiosondes, buoys, and other networks

• Assess & Predict: Models, IT, infrastructure, and forecasters/hydrologists – Needed to produce warnings, forecasts, and information. – Includes Labor (WFOs, RFCs, National Centers, Regional

and National Headquarters), AWIPS, telecommunications

• Engage, Advise & Inform: Product dissemination and customer outreach– Needed to deliver critical warnings, forecasts, and

information and to train and educate customers – Includes NOAA Weather Radio, Family of Services, Storm Ready

• Understand & Describe: Research and Development – Needed for product, information, and service improvement– Includes Laboratories (labor, infrastructure, joint institutes),

grant programs

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Observational Issues

• “Observations Are NOAA’s Legacy” (Kelly Redmond)

• Bringing New Technological Advances to Radar (NEXRAD Dual Polarization, Phased Array) and Satellites (Research Satellites, NPOESS Preparatory Mission, GOES-R)

• How to Combine with Insitu Measurements

• How to Extract Information; Maximize Diagnostic and Predictive Capabilities (e.g., ASOS)

• Observations and Modeling Issues are Linked

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5-Order Magnitude Increase in Satellite Data Over 10 Years

Year

Count

(Mill

ions)

Daily Upper Air Observation Count

Year

Satellite Instruments by Platform

Count

NPOESSMETEOPNOAA

WindsatGOESDMSP

1990 201020001990 2010 2010-250chYear

2002

2003

Insert Date

Providing Global Measurements

Aqua

Terra

TRMM

SORCE

SeaWiFS

Aura

Meteor/SAGE

GRACE

ICESat

Cloudsat

Jason

CALIPSO

GIFTSTOPEX

Landsat

NOAA/POES

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Modeling Issues

• Data Assimilation Linked to Observing Program; Determine the “Optimal Mix” of Insitu and Remotely Sensed Observations (Especially Radar and Satellite)

• Ensemble Approach– Number of Members? (Will Likely Rely on International

Partners to Increase “Final” Set of Model Runs)

– Model Diversity?

– Initial State Perturbation?

• Interdisciplinary Approach Model Flexibility (Especially Climate/Wx)

• Research to Operations – Can Each Community Use the Same Modeling System?

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Fundamental Strategy

• Unified Earth System Modeling System

– Links Climate, Weather, Ocean, Land, Space Wx

– Applied to Multidisciplinary Problem (e.g. Hydrometeorological, Air Quality, Coastal Zone)

– Spans the Scales from Climate to Short-Term Mesoscale Prediction

• Based on a Community Model Approach

– Interoperable (Within NOAA; Among Other Agencies)

– Extensible

– Applied to Research to Operations Transition

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The Challenges of Operational “Goals” Driving Research “Needs”

• Scheduling Research Advances

• Protecting the Serendipity of the Research Process

• Ensuring Research Results Can Accelerate Service Advancements

• Taking Advantage of Test Beds (Bridge that Links Research Needs to Operational Service Goals)

– JHT, JCSDA, HWTB, DTC, Proposed Hydromet and Climate Test Beds

• Major Premise for Advancement: Research Community Can do “Research” with Operational Observations and Modeling Systems

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Supporting ProgramsThe Need to Leverage!

• Ongoing Programs that Require NOAA Support for Mission Goal 3 Advancements:

– USWRP

– THORPex

– Hydrology: Rivers, Lakes and Floods Program

– Coasts, Estuaries and Oceans Program

– Science and Technology Infusion Program (STIP)

• Linkage to Other Goal Programs

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Summary

• Service Goals Are in Place

• Priorities Have Been Established

• Research to Operational Transition (The Bridge) Remains the Challenge for Successful NOAA

• Must be Accomplished with Recognition for Importance of Both the Science “Needs” and the Service “Goals” that Support “Transition from Research to Operations”

• Must Work in Partnership with Programs that Include Other Agencies

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National Needs

• Severe Weather (Atmosphere & Space) Continues to Have Major Impacts on the Nation– Cause $11B in damage/year – 523 Casualties

• Drought and Fresh Water Availability are Growing National Concerns– $6B-$8B in losses/year

• Poor Air Quality has Significant Effect on the Nation’s Health and Economy– Pollution causes up to 40,000 deaths and $150B in costs/year

• Rising Costs of Weather and Water Damage Along Nation’s Coasts – Damages from coastal storms can reach $50B/year

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