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Michael FeroliChief US EconomistJPMorgan March 2011
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The US economic outlook: Surprising pessimists, disappointing optimists
2
Economic outlook
Look for growth to be somewhat better in 2011 than in 2010
Fiscal policy remains supportive
Low inflation allows monetary policy to remain friendly
Financial, credit conditions turning more supportive
Spending still coming off depressed levels
Negatives: fiscal drag coming, falling house prices
For inflation, high unemployment will swamp high commodity prices
Low inflation to keep Fed on the sidelines
3
The recovery in pictures: firming growth to contribute to slow improvement in jobs picture
-10
-5
0
5
10
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
%ch at annual rate over 1 quarter
Real GDP
Forecast
-10
-5
0
5
10
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
%ch at annual rate over 1 quarter
Real GDP
Forecast
2
4
6
8
10
12
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
percent, sa
Unemployment rate
Forecast
2
4
6
8
10
12
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
percent, sa
Unemployment rate
Forecast
4
Bank credit turning slightly less restrictive
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
net % tightening
Lending standards, C&I loans
Large firm
Small firm
90 95 00 05 10
5
Household balance sheets under repair
10
11
12
13
14
percent of disposable personal income, sa
Household debt service ratio
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
10
11
12
13
14
percent of disposable personal income, sa
Household debt service ratio
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
%
Household debt to income ratio
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Forecast
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
%
Household debt to income ratio
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Forecast
6
QE2 is having beneficial effects
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Jan 1 Apr 1 Jun30
Sep 28 Dec27
Mar27
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
%, both scalesInflation breakeven (Fed measure 5yr-
5yr forward)
Real yield (10-year)
J ackson Hole
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
Jan 1 Apr 1 Jun30
Sep28
Dec27
Mar27
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
index, both scales
S&P 500 index
nominal broad effective
exchange rate
Jackson Hole
7
Fiscal lift bought at a steep price
-15
-10
-5
0
5
% of GDP
Federal deficit
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
% of GDP
Federal deficit
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2009 2010 2011 2012
Percentage point contribution to annualized GDP growth
Fiscal impact
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2009 2010 2011 2012
Percentage point contribution to annualized GDP growth
Fiscal impact
8
Consumers: near-term hit from higher gas prices
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120Index
Consumer sentiment by income
Family income less than 75k/yr
Family income more than 75k/yr
05 07 09 11
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120Index
Consumer sentiment by income
Family income less than 75k/yr
Family income more than 75k/yr
05 07 09 11
9
Adjustment to higher saving probably behind us
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
percent, sa
Saving rate
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
ratio
Household wealth to annual income
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
10
Consumers have benefited from removal of fear factor
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Index, %less-%more
Employment expectations and real consumer spending % ch, oya
U Mich survey, expected unemployment over next year
Real durables spending
78 83 88 93 98 03 08
11
…and from support from D.C.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
as % of income
Household sector: taxes paid - gov't payments received
59 64 69 74 79 84 89 94 99 04 09
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
as % of income
Household sector: taxes paid - gov't payments received
59 64 69 74 79 84 89 94 99 04 09
12
Consumers’ pent-up demands should continue giving some lift
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Millions of vehicles, annual rate
Vehicle sales and scrappage
Light vehicles scrapped
Light vehicle sales
76 81 86 91 96 01 06 11
13
Businesses: capital spending has been solid
90
100
110
120
130Sa, level at trough of recession=100
Real spending on equipment and software during expansions
-2 qtrs
0 +2 qtrs
+4 qtrs
+6 qtrs
2001
1975
1991
1982
2009
90
100
110
120
130Sa, level at trough of recession=100
Real spending on equipment and software during expansions
-2 qtrs
0 +2 qtrs
+4 qtrs
+6 qtrs
2001
1975
1991
1982
2009
500
550
600
650
700
485
510
535
560
585
610$2005 bn, saar
Business spending on information processing equipment, software
$ bn, saar
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Real spending
Nominal spending
500
550
600
650
700
485
510
535
560
585
610$2005 bn, saar
Business spending on information processing equipment, software
$ bn, saar
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Real spending
Nominal spending
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25Index, 1Q05=1.00
Real business spending on business equipment ex high tech
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Transportation equipment
Industrial equipment
Other equipment
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25Index, 1Q05=1.00
Real business spending on business equipment ex high tech
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Transportation equipment
Industrial equipment
Other equipment
14
Investment spending coming off low levels
-2
0
2
4
6
8
% of GDP
Business capital spending, net of depreciation
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
% of GDP
Business capital spending, net of depreciation
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
15
Housing: pent-up demand but still oversupply
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
thousands, saar
Construction and demographics
New housing units started
Household growth (10-yr average)
69 74 79 84 89 94 99 04 09
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
thousands, saar
Construction and demographics
New housing units started
Household growth (10-yr average)
69 74 79 84 89 94 99 04 09
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
thousands, sa
Vacant, for-sale housing units
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
thousands, sa
Vacant, for-sale housing units
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
16
Home prices are cheap by some metrics, but downside momentum continues
10
15
20
25
30
35
40percent, nsa
Average monthly home payment as a percent of median income
81 86 91 96 01 06 11
10
15
20
25
30
35
40percent, nsa
Average monthly home payment as a percent of median income
81 86 91 96 01 06 11
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
index, 1976=1
Real house prices
76 81 86 91 96 01 06
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
index, 1976=1
Real house prices
76 81 86 91 96 01 06
17
State and local: improvement in finances partly dependent on federal support
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
% of GDP
Combined state and local deficits
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
-20
-10
0
10
20% ch, saar
State and local tax receipts
97 99 01 03 05 07 09
-20
-10
0
10
20% ch, saar
State and local tax receipts
97 99 01 03 05 07 09
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0% of GDP
Fedeeral aid to state and local gov'ts
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0% of GDP
Fedeeral aid to state and local gov'ts
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
18
Labor market: Business caution toward hiring is a hallmark of modern recoveries
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
-8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20Months from trough
Private payrolls around recessionsTrough employment = 100
1982
1975
1991
2001
2009
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
Percent of workforce, sa
Hires and separation rates
Hires rate
Quits + layoffs
01 03 05 07 09 11
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
Percent of workforce, sa
Hires and separation rates
Hires rate
Quits + layoffs
01 03 05 07 09 11
19
Increases in workweek, productivity should give way to more full-time hiring
0
1
2
3
4
5
%ch at annual rate over 8 quarters
Productivity
90 95 00 05 10
0
1
2
3
4
5
%ch at annual rate over 8 quarters
Productivity
90 95 00 05 10
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.5
35.0
90 95 00 05 10
hours
Average workweek
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.5
35.0
90 95 00 05 10
hours
Average workweek
20
Participation rate has undershot trend
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
73
74
75
76
77
78%, both scales
Labor force participation rates, age 25-54
90 95 00 05 10
Male Female
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
73
74
75
76
77
78%, both scales
Labor force participation rates, age 25-54
90 95 00 05 10
Male Female
50
55
60
65
70
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42%, both scales
Labor force participation rates
90 95 00 05 10
16-24 55 and over
50
55
60
65
70
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42%, both scales
Labor force participation rates
90 95 00 05 10
16-24 55 and over
64.0
64.5
65.0
65.5
66.0
66.5
67.0
67.5
%, annual average
Labor force participation rate
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
Actual
February
*
J .P. Morgan
Social Security Admin.
CBO
21
Unemployment mostly cyclical, not structural
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6000s
J ob-related moving%ch, oya
98 00 02 04 06 08
Nonfarm employment
Job-related internal migration
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6000s
J ob-related moving%ch, oya
98 00 02 04 06 08
Nonfarm employment
Job-related internal migration
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Ratio: unskilled/skilled unemp. rate
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
u-rate, less than high school / u-rate, college degree
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Ratio: unskilled/skilled unemp. rate
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
u-rate, less than high school / u-rate, college degree
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
000s, sa, unemployed 27 weeks or more
Long-term unemployed
Manufacturing
Health and education
Trade
Construction
05 07 09 11
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
000s, sa, unemployed 27 weeks or more
Long-term unemployed
Manufacturing
Health and education
Trade
Construction
05 07 09 11
22
Inflation: underlying inflation has been lowInflation: underlying inflation has been low
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
% ch, oya
CPI
Median
Core
90 95 00 05 10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
% ch, oya
CPI
Median
Core
90 95 00 05 10
23
In the long run, wage and price inflation are linked together
-5
0
5
10
15
% ch, oya
Business costs and prices
48 53 58 63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98 03 08
Unit labor costs
Prices, business output
-5
0
5
10
15
% ch, oya
Business costs and prices
48 53 58 63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98 03 08
Unit labor costs
Prices, business output
24
Labor market slack keeping a lid on wage inflation
1
3
5
7
9
11
%
Wages and unemployment
Unemployment rate
Average hourly earnings, change over year-ago
85 90 95 00 05 10
1
3
5
7
9
11
%
Wages and unemployment
Unemployment rate
Average hourly earnings, change over year-ago
85 90 95 00 05 10
25
Nobody is even hoping for a raise
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Percent
Median expected change in family income in the coming year
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Percent
Median expected change in family income in the coming year
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
26
A Fed on hold is not a Fed at ease
5
10
15
20
25
52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12
%, assuming QE2 completed
Fed Treasury holdings as % of outstanding UST, with passive run-off
Forecast
5
10
15
20
25
52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12
%, assuming QE2 completed
Fed Treasury holdings as % of outstanding UST, with passive run-off
Forecast
-10
-5
0
5
10
88 93 98 03 08 13
%
Taylor rules
Fed funds
Original Taylor rule
Rudebusch Taylor rule
-10
-5
0
5
10
88 93 98 03 08 13
%
Taylor rules
Fed funds
Original Taylor rule
Rudebusch Taylor rule
27
The US economic outlook in brief
First year and a half of recovery have been uneven
2011 should see somewhat better growth
Inflation trends remain soft
Monetary policy will be more growth-supportive than fiscal policy
28
The US economic forecast in detail
3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012Gross domestic productReal GDP 2.6 2.8 2.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 Final sales 0.9 6.7 1.0 3.6 3.6 2.9 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.0 1.4 2.9 2.9 Domestic 2.6 3.1 2.2 3.6 4.0 3.3 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.0 1.8 3.1 3.1 Consumer spending 2.4 4.1 2.1 3.5 4.0 3.0 1.5 2.6 3.1 2.6 1.8 3.1 2.7 Business investment 10.0 5.3 6.7 10.5 11.4 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.7 8.9 5.6 9.0 9.7 Equipment 15.4 5.5 8.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 16.3 10.5 8.5 15.1 10.8 9.6 Structures -3.5 4.5 2.0 5.0 9.0 10.0 10.0 -4.7 6.5 10.0 -13.8 3.5 9.6 Residential investment -27.3 2.7 10.0 15.0 15.0 10.0 10.0 -4.7 12.5 13.7 -3.0 5.5 12.8 Government 3.9 -1.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 -0.1 -0.4 1.2 -0.9 -0.5 1.0 -0.2 -0.6Net exports ($bn, chained $2005) -505 -395 -437 -440 -459 -479 -494 - - - - - -Exports (goods and services) 6.7 9.6 15.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 9.2 9.7 8.7 11.8 9.9 8.4Imports (goods and services) 16.8 -12.4 21.0 7.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 11.0 11.9 7.7 12.7 9.5 8.6Inventories (ch $bn, chained $2005) 121.4 7.1 57.8 55.8 53.9 59.2 62.2 - - - - - -Contribution to real GDP growth (% pts):Domestic final sales 2.7 3.2 2.2 3.6 4.0 3.3 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.0 1.9 3.1 3.1Net exports -1.7 3.4 -1.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2Inventories 1.6 -3.7 1.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.4 -0.1 0.1Income and profits (NIPA basis)Adjusted corp profits 6.6 10.0 6.0 10.0 8.0 7.0 3.0 18.4 7.7 5.5 29.2 8.3 5.9Real disposable personal income 1.0 1.4 1.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 0.0 2.3 2.6 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.4Saving rate1 6.0 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.5 - - - 5.8 5.0 4.6Prices and labor costConsumer price index 1.4 2.6 4.0 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.1 1.3 1.6 2.2 1.3
Core 1.1 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9Producer price index 1.1 7.2 6.0 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.3 3.9 2.2 1.4 4.2 3.3 1.3
Core 2.1 -0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.7 1.0GDP chain-type price index 2.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2Core PCE deflator 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.9S&P/C-S house price index (% oya) -1.4 -4.1 -2.5 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 -4.1 0.5 2.0 0.1 -0.8 1.9Productivity 2.3 2.6 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.6 3.8 2.0 1.7
Other indicatorsHousing starts (mn units, saar)1 0.588 0.534 0.600 0.650 0.675 0.700 0.725 - - - 0.585 0.656 0.781Industrial production, mfg. 4.3 4.0 4.5 5.0 4.5 3.5 3.5 6.0 4.4 3.5 6.0 4.7 3.7Capacity utilization, mfg. (% )1 72.4 73.0 73.7 74.4 75.0 75.5 75.8 - - - 71.8 74.6 76.2Light vehicle sales (mn units, saar)1 11.6 12.3 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.1 - - - 11.5 13.2 13.3Unemployment rate1 9.6 9.6 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 - - - 9.6 8.8 8.4Nominal GDP 4.6 3.2 3.5 4.5 4.5 4.1 3.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.1Current account balance ($bn)1 -127.2 -105.3 -107.8 -109.8 -113.6 -121.4 -124.7 - - - -464.9 -452.7 -513.3
% of GDP -3.5 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 -3.1 -3.2 - - - -3.2 -3.0 -3.2Federal budget balance ($bn)1 - - - - - - - - - - -1294.2 -1500.0 -1100.0
% of GDP - - - - - - - - - - -8.8 -9.8 -6.91. Entries are average level for the period. Federal balance figures are for fiscal years.
Mar 11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Interest rate forecast (end of period)Fed funds target 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.133-mo LIBOR 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month T-bill (bey) 0.08 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.21
2-yr Treasury 0.63 0.75 0.83 0.90 1.205-yr Treasury 2.04 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.8510-yr Treasury 3.39 3.60 3.65 3.70 3.9030-yr Treasury 4.54 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70
% q/q, saar % q4/q4 % y/y3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
Gross domestic productReal GDP 2.6 2.8 2.5 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 Final sales 0.9 6.7 1.0 3.6 3.6 2.9 1.9 2.4 2.7 3.0 1.4 2.9 2.9 Domestic 2.6 3.1 2.2 3.6 4.0 3.3 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.0 1.8 3.1 3.1 Consumer spending 2.4 4.1 2.1 3.5 4.0 3.0 1.5 2.6 3.1 2.6 1.8 3.1 2.7 Business investment 10.0 5.3 6.7 10.5 11.4 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.7 8.9 5.6 9.0 9.7 Equipment 15.4 5.5 8.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 16.3 10.5 8.5 15.1 10.8 9.6 Structures -3.5 4.5 2.0 5.0 9.0 10.0 10.0 -4.7 6.5 10.0 -13.8 3.5 9.6 Residential investment -27.3 2.7 10.0 15.0 15.0 10.0 10.0 -4.7 12.5 13.7 -3.0 5.5 12.8 Government 3.9 -1.5 -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 -0.1 -0.4 1.2 -0.9 -0.5 1.0 -0.2 -0.6Net exports ($bn, chained $2005) -505 -395 -437 -440 -459 -479 -494 - - - - - -Exports (goods and services) 6.7 9.6 15.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 9.2 9.7 8.7 11.8 9.9 8.4Imports (goods and services) 16.8 -12.4 21.0 7.0 10.0 10.0 9.0 11.0 11.9 7.7 12.7 9.5 8.6Inventories (ch $bn, chained $2005) 121.4 7.1 57.8 55.8 53.9 59.2 62.2 - - - - - -Contribution to real GDP growth (% pts):Domestic final sales 2.7 3.2 2.2 3.6 4.0 3.3 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.0 1.9 3.1 3.1Net exports -1.7 3.4 -1.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2Inventories 1.6 -3.7 1.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.4 -0.1 0.1Income and profits (NIPA basis)Adjusted corp profits 6.6 10.0 6.0 10.0 8.0 7.0 3.0 18.4 7.7 5.5 29.2 8.3 5.9Real disposable personal income 1.0 1.4 1.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 0.0 2.3 2.6 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.4Saving rate1 6.0 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.5 - - - 5.8 5.0 4.6Prices and labor costConsumer price index 1.4 2.6 4.0 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.1 1.3 1.6 2.2 1.3
Core 1.1 0.6 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9Producer price index 1.1 7.2 6.0 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.3 3.9 2.2 1.4 4.2 3.3 1.3
Core 2.1 -0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.7 1.0GDP chain-type price index 2.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2Core PCE deflator 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.9S&P/C-S house price index (% oya) -1.4 -4.1 -2.5 -1.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 -4.1 0.5 2.0 0.1 -0.8 1.9Productivity 2.3 2.6 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.6 3.8 2.0 1.7
Other indicatorsHousing starts (mn units, saar)1 0.588 0.534 0.600 0.650 0.675 0.700 0.725 - - - 0.585 0.656 0.781Industrial production, mfg. 4.3 4.0 4.5 5.0 4.5 3.5 3.5 6.0 4.4 3.5 6.0 4.7 3.7Capacity utilization, mfg. (% )1 72.4 73.0 73.7 74.4 75.0 75.5 75.8 - - - 71.8 74.6 76.2Light vehicle sales (mn units, saar)1 11.6 12.3 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.1 - - - 11.5 13.2 13.3Unemployment rate1 9.6 9.6 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 - - - 9.6 8.8 8.4Nominal GDP 4.6 3.2 3.5 4.5 4.5 4.1 3.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 3.8 4.0 4.1Current account balance ($bn)1 -127.2 -105.3 -107.8 -109.8 -113.6 -121.4 -124.7 - - - -464.9 -452.7 -513.3
% of GDP -3.5 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9 -3.0 -3.1 -3.2 - - - -3.2 -3.0 -3.2Federal budget balance ($bn)1 - - - - - - - - - - -1294.2 -1500.0 -1100.0
% of GDP - - - - - - - - - - -8.8 -9.8 -6.91. Entries are average level for the period. Federal balance figures are for fiscal years.
Mar 11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12
Interest rate forecast (end of period)Fed funds target 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.133-mo LIBOR 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month T-bill (bey) 0.08 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.21
2-yr Treasury 0.63 0.75 0.83 0.90 1.205-yr Treasury 2.04 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.8510-yr Treasury 3.39 3.60 3.65 3.70 3.9030-yr Treasury 4.54 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70
% q/q, saar % q4/q4 % y/y
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