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Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or
unsustainable social behaviours?
Sustainable developmentA challenge for European research
Brussels, 26-28 May 2009
EnerdataChâteau, Bertrand
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Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or
unsustainable social behaviours?
Energy , life-styles and behaviours: a key Energy , life-styles and behaviours: a key issue for shaping sustainable societies, issue for shaping sustainable societies,
addressed in EU research projectsaddressed in EU research projects
VLEEM (Very Long Term Energy Environment Model; www.VLEEM.org) : sustainable energy systems up to 2100
WETO-H2 (World Energy Technology Outlook-Hydrogen) : reference European energy system up to 2050 and strategies to mitigate drastically GHG emissions
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Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or
unsustainable social behaviours?
Long term scenarios of VLEEM and WETO-H2 Long term scenarios of VLEEM and WETO-H2 give preliminary insights in behaviours and give preliminary insights in behaviours and
sustainabilitysustainability
Current life-styles in IC’s are not sustainable on a worldwide scale
Changes in the energy technology paradigm are unavoidable in
the next decades, and will impact life-styles
To be sustainable, life-styles have to turn towards low energy use
Renewables are more appealing with low energy life-styles
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Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or
unsustainable social behaviours?
Keys for understanding long term Keys for understanding long term behavioural changesbehavioural changes
Life-styles are rather stable within an age class, but change with generations. It is a slow process which starts at school
In most IC’s today and DC’s tomorrow, population is aging and retired people life-styles will be increasingly dominant
Another world trend: more singles and two persons households, with more energy intensive life styles
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Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or
unsustainable social behaviours?
BAU drives unsustainable behavioursBAU drives unsustainable behaviours
Economic growth and rising income increase the value of time
People substitute equipment and energy for their time – Less time used in the food function, but a fast increasing energy
cost– In the US, up to 23% of total energy demand for food function
People move faster and further, within a constant time budget– Higher the value of time, higher the speed necessary to maximize
the consumption utility within a constant time-budget, higher the km
– 35 km/h in Europe, 74 km/h in the US, 3 km/h in China– 0.9 toe/pers in Europe, 2.1 toe/pers in the US, 0.06 toe/pers in
China
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Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or
unsustainable social behaviours?
BAU drives unsustainable behavioursBAU drives unsustainable behaviours
Urban sprawl is often a consequence of economic development in BAU
People wish to move to houses in low density areas, and can do it thanks to cars
– Single family houses and cars are much more energy intensive – In Paris, energy ranges from 0.4 toe/cap (downtown) to 0.75
(2nd ring) Low density makes pubic transport and energy networks
very costly and inefficient
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Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or
unsustainable social behaviours?
Sustainability is feasible, it is a matter of Sustainability is feasible, it is a matter of social choicessocial choices
life-styles and energy: it is indeed a mater of technology, but it is also a mater of individual preferences and social choices
Similar technologies in ICs, but large spectrum in energy consumption pattern for similar GDP/cap: life styles are not just determined by wealth
Individual values, representations and preferences are strongly determined by the cultural heritage and the social context, mainly through school and education: life-styles can also be « oriented »
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Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or
unsustainable social behaviours?
Sustainability is feasible, it is a matter of social Sustainability is feasible, it is a matter of social choiceschoices
Social preferences may drive technology and related life-styles towards sustainability
Thanks to PV, passive solar and electric cars, urban sprawl may become sustainable
TGV shows that high speed does’nt mean necessarily plane China and others are experimenting new urban areas carbon
free
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Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention
www. enerdata.fr
Until when?Until when?
Long term scenarios – Towards sustainable or
unsustainable social behaviours?
