International Webinar

"Russia – wind power – business opportunities for the companies of Great Britain".

 

September, 04, 2014 г., Embassy of Great Britain

Report

«Russian Wind Resources and Prospects of Russian Wind Power Market Development»

Dr. Vladimir Nikolaev,

Research & Information Center «ATMOGRAPH»Moscow, Russia

Tel. / Fax: 8-499-744-41-63, E-mail: atmograph@gmail.com

"ATMOGRAPH" has grown from and is the successor of TsAGI in the field of atmospheric research for aviation and aeronautics, as well as for wind power industry and works in the following fields of renewables

• Propaganda and popularization of renewables, consulting service and provision the users with data and models for determination of wind and solar resources;• Determination of power efficiency of wind turbines, solar and hybrid cells in the territory of Russia, CIS and Baltic countries; determination of their competitiveness with traditional power sources; • Selection of optimum variants of power supply on the basis of renewables;• Execution of pre-feasible study and business plans for the WPP, solar and hybrid power stations;• International cooperation in the field of renewables; promotion of best WT and solar cells of native and foreign manufacturers;• Working out and edition of wind and solar resources Atlases, Catalogues and Manuals of renewable energy equipment and it’s practical use;• Participation in development of Russian legal and normative basis for renewables. The main users, customers and partners of "ATMOGRAPH" are:Russian Ministry on Industry, Ministry on Power Generation, Russian Power Agency, IFC, Joint Stock Companies “RAO ES of Russia”, “Inter RAO”, “RAO ES of Russian East”, “Rus Gidro”, “Lukoil”, research Institutes, power engineering companies, ets.The cooperation with Denmark since 1990-s: working out (with RISO) and issue of Russian Wind Atlas and the development some wind projects with Russian-Denmark Institute of Power Efficiency.

Report subjects

► Historical information

► Wind power resources of Russia

► Possible scenarios of wind power development in Russia

► Prospects of development of Russian wind power

► Problems and necessary conditions of the Russian wind power large-scale development

Historical information

► Wind energy in the former USSR in 1950-s:

Total installed capacity of WPP: ≈ 150 MW Wind industry with production ≈ 10 000 WT/year

with the WT single capacity up to 100 kW and with WT total capacity > 150 MW)

► In 1960 State Plan was developed and accepted (targets ≈ 7 GW by 1980)

But, the accelerated development of nuclear power and large hydropower and shortage of financing prevented the implementation of the 7 GW plan

► Next active period of wind power development in Russia – 1988 - 1995

The WT of average (100 – 300 kW) and large (1 MW) size were created and first experimental samples of the WPP were let out and build (Vorkuta – first-ever polar station of 2.5 MW; Kalmykia – WT of 1 MW, etc…)

1992 – the State plan was developed and accepted with the targets ≈ 1 GW by 2000

But, the destructive consequences of the “Perestroyka” and shortage of finances prevented the implementation of the plan

1994 – 1996 – the Law of RES development in Russia was prepared, approved by all levels of legislature, but was not signed by the President of RF

Modern status of wind power in Russia

Modern period began in 2006 – 2007 began generally with the: ● development of legislative base of RES (which isn't finished to the present) and ● studying at the modern level of Russian wind resources

Wind energy in Russia in 2014:Total installed capacity of working WPP: ≈ 10 - 12 MW Production : small series of WT (up to 30 kW) and absence of industry and production of middle and large class WT

Wind projects under design (majority of them with “ATMOGRAPH” participation): ● Krasnodar region (up to 700 – 1000 МW), ● Volgograd & Astrakhan regions, Kalmykia (up to 1200 МW), ● Kaliningrad region (up to 200 МW), ● Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Leningrad regions, Komi, Karelia (≈ 1000 MW), ● Siberia (up to 300 – 500 МW), Far East (up to 600 МW), ● Region with decentralized electricity supply (wind-diesel PP up to 150 МW)

State Government Decree on 28.05.2013 (implying < 3.6 GW WPP in 2020) + + absence of any strategic plans for the Russian wind power after 2020

Wind power resources of Russia

is quite authentically studied

► High-precision methods of calculation of wind power potential and of power and economic indicators of WT and WPP in the territory of Russia, NIS-countries and Baltic Countries USSR are developed

► Calculations were carried out and data on wind potential in Administrative Subjects of the Russian Federation and Russia in general are obtained

►  Maps of distribution across the territory of Russia of characteristics of wind power potential and efficiency of WT are constructed

Development of ideas on Russian wind resourcesWASP (2000 ) data from 220 МS of USSR АТМOGRAPH (2009) data from 2200 МS + 147 АS

→

↑

TsAGI (1992 г.) data from 3600 МS in USSR МGU (2010 г.) Data from satellites а

Russian wind resources

► According to our investigations WASP model systematically decreases mean wind speeds at 50 m up to 25–30%, essentially restricting the scales of WPP use in Russia ► Thus the most advanced international theoretical methodic WASP, based on meteo dates as well as Russian Wind Atlas published in 2000 is not sufficiently reliable for practical use in Russia

АТМОGRAPH’s methodic for modeling of wind potential and WPP capacity РWT

in the local point or region in Russian territory

The achieved level (13 – 16 % for the plain territories, 18 – 25 % for difficult terrain)

The most reliable method of determining the of wind farm’s capacity on the territory of Russia is based on a mathematical model

VБУР N

РWPP = КAVA(n) · ∫ ( Кмlosses · ( ρ/ρо ) · ∫ р(V) · G(V) dV ) dS = КТГ(n) · Км

losses · К(V)NID · Σ р (Vi )· G(Vi.)

Sвк Vo i =1

где КAVA(n) – model of WPP’s availability (n – № of the year) – the function of technical iddles

Кмlosses – the function of losses ; К(V)NID – the function of non ideal wind conditions and density

variations ρ и ρо ; р(V) – power curve

ω (ΔVi.) и f(V) at the heigh of rotor axis HROTOR is defined by rising of the bims boundaries ΔVi using different models of V(h) with conservation of frequency ω(Vi.) in bims

Dispersion РWPP due to ω (Vi.) и f(V) increases with HROTOR up to 100% at HROTOR > 80 m and

depends on selection of the meteo station and accuracy of V(h) modelling. The required by banks accuracy of РWPP 10% may be achieved with the mast measurements

Theoretical highly reliable method for wind potential and WT capacity

in the territory of Russia and NIS-countries (RIC “ATMOGRAPH”)

Cardinal increase of reliability of a technique of modeling of wind potential and WT capacity in Russia (with a statistical error < 14 – 16 % for plain territories and < 20 – 25 % – for a complex relief) is provided with new methodical approaches

1. Leaving from nonlinear model ∫ р(V)·f(V) dV In the calculating of РWT, using statistically established quasilinear relations РWT и VAVR

∫ р(V)· f(V) dV = Σn АnРЕГ · V n

СР + В n iРЕГ + О (пр.)

2. Instead the extrapolation of wind speeds from meteorological heights hметео (8 – 16 m) on heights HROTOR WT (up to 200 m) more exact interpolation is used based on the meteorological and aerologic data, depending on the accuracy of models V (hметео) and V at heights 100 – 600 m

3. Instead modeling in WAsP method on the data of one nearest meteostation, wind poten-tial at heights hmetео и hаero is statistically modeling on the “cleared” data of all (up to 50) meteostations located in the circular territory with radius of up to 300 km and all (up to 10) aerologic stations in the circle of radius of up to 500 – 600 km around the studied point

4. The distribution functions G(Vi ) are defined statistically based on the data of aerologic and meteorological stations located in the circular territory with radius of up to 600 km

МОДЕЛЬ “СЭНДВИЧ”

DATABASE of long-term aerologic measurements at heights 100, 200, 300 и 600 m on the network of

aerologic stations of Russia

DATABASE of long-term meteorological measurements and data on data on wind closeness of meteorological stations on Milevsky classification

Statistical modeling of the one-parametrical tabulated functions GAERО (VAVR ) for 2 < VAVR < 12 m/s with the step ΔVAVR = (0,5 + δ) m/s for δ ≈ 0,05 ∙ VAVR according to measurements on aerologic stations in a circle of the radius of RAЕRО ≈ 500 – 700 km RАЭРО ≈ 500 – 700 км

Statistical modeling of the one-parametrical tabulated functions GМЕТЕО (VAVR ) for 2 < VAVR < 12 m/s with the step ΔVAVR = (0,5 + δ) m/s for δ ≈ 0,05 ∙ VAVR according to measurements on meteostations in a circle of the radius of RМЕТЕО ≈ 200 –

500 km

100 м

hМЕТЕО

h? v,? v

VСР

Semi-empirical model VAVR(h) = (U*/k) ∙ln(h/zo)

Empirical model: VСР (h) = A∙h3+B∙h2+C∙h+D Spline approximation: VAVR (h) = A∙h3+B∙h2+C∙h+D

Statistical modeling of regional wind speed VMETEO with cleaning

data with using classification of

Milevsky do7b across Milevsky

RАERO

RМЕТЕО

V (

hВROTOR

)

ωАЭРО ( VСР )

Statistical compilation GМЕТЕО(VAVR)

и GAERО(VAVR) для V (hROTOR) using method of maximum likelihood G(V),%

V, m/s

G(VhВК) W (W/m2) in the set region:

W = ½ ∙ ρ ∙ ∫ V 3

∙ G(V)∙ dV и РWT (кВт)

РWT = ∫ Р(V)∙ G(V)∙ dV

+ погрешности его определения

Рис. : The scheme of the R&IC “ATMOGRAPH” technique of the wind specific capacity W (W/m2) and VPP capacity РWT (kW) in the set place or region of Russia

R – radius of similarity of climatic conditions; ω – repeatability of wind speed on gradation

Development and application of methods of reliable determination of V (h)

The most accurate approximation of V (h) gives a three-layer model of the author's "sandwich" ● described above 100 meters by the cubic approximation of average seasonal upper air data at heights of 100, 200, 300, 600 m; ● in the layer 0-hmeteo V (h) is modeled by a logarithmic profile with the parameter zo and Uo

modeled according to the procedure WASP ● In the layer hmeteo < h <100 m V (h) is approximated by a cubic spline with coefficients determined by the condition of smooth matching with the logarithmic profile V(h) and the cubic polynomial - at the upper limit (100 m) For the 28 upper air stations with additional data at heights 40 – 80 m model "sandwich“ provides the V(h) modeling up to 100 m with an accuracy of < 6.7% with the maximum of errors - at altitudes of 35 - 50 m “Sandwich" has allowed us to estimate the height of the applicability of the logarithmic V(h) profile hlog. The data from intermediate levels 40 – 80 m used as a criterion for the accuracy of V(h) modeling, and the required height hlog determined by minimizing the error calculations V(h) at an intermediate levels by parametric changing hlog. According to our study the use of of the logarithmic V(h) profile is correct for h log <20 - 25 m

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

height, m

V(h

), m

/s

annualwinterspringsummerautumn

Statistical modeling of the frequency function G(V) on the basis of empirical wind speed repeatvness calculated from the meteorological and aerologic data

    © RIC "ATMOGRAPH" Data Base "FLUGER XXI"                        

  R, km 400.0Altitude,

° N H 46.70Longitude, ° E H 38.30      

Specific  

  Annual frequency f(Vi) of meteorological wind speeds Vi by gradations       power dencity  

  Vi, m/s 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19.5 23.5 27 32.5 37.5   V   N   J, W/m2 σJ, %  

  3.5 36.2 30.6 18.3 8.3 3.4 1.1 1.1 0.37 0.45 0.17 0.01 0 0 0   3.52   59   109.3 27.0  

  4 31.0 28.0 20.5 11.0 4.8 1.8 1.5 0.51 0.67 0.2 0.02 0.01 0 0.01   4.01   96   146.5 27.6  

  4.5 24.5 27.3 22.6 13.0 6.2 2.5 2.0 0.65 0.93 0.25 0.02 0.01 0.01 0   4.51   103   183.0 22.7  

  5 20.7 25.0 23.7 14.4 7.3 3.6 2.6 0.99 1.22 0.36 0.02 0.01 0 0   4.99   95   230.1 22.5  

  5.5 17.6 23.5 23.0 15.3 8.3 5.3 3.2 1.46 1.64 0.64 0.05 0.02 0.01 0   5.49   83   298.3 23.7  

  6 13.8 20.7 23.6 17.0 10.7 5.6 4.2 1.8 1.85 0.74 0.04 0.02 0.01 0   5.97   75   345.8 22.7  

  6.5 8.4 20.9 23.7 18.4 12.0 7.7 3.9 2.09 1.2 1.17 0.29 0.14 0.06 0.01   6.49   25   403.2 23.2  

  7 4.3 19.6 22.2 19.7 14.6 9.9 5.3 2.4 0.97 0.79 0.28 0.06 0.07 0.01   7.00   31   465.4 21.1  

  7.5 4.0 14.4 20.9 21.0 17.0 11.5 5.8 2.88 1.21 0.94 0.24 0.12 0.07 0.01   7.48   69   538.0 13.5  

  8 3.8 12.6 18.6 19.6 17.1 13.1 7.5 3.91 1.79 1.24 0.35 0.17 0.05 0.01   7.97   74   609.6 13.8  

  8.5 2.7 10.7 17.9 19.4 17.4 14.2 8.4 4.71 2.36 1.47 0.46 0.2 0.1 0.02   8.43   68   714.0 9.9  

  9 2.1 9.5 16.6 18.5 17.4 14.4 9.5 5.69 3.14 1.9 0.81 0.28 0.1 0.02   8.90   74   830.5 11.0  

  9.5 1.6 8.1 14.1 17.3 17.5 15.8 11.4 7.14 3.6 2.3 0.83 0.23 0.1 0.03   9.41   53   913.0 6.5  

  10 1.4 7.5 12.9 16.1 16.8 15.7 12.2 8.17 4.62 3.13 1.15 0.27 0.09 0.02   9.85   62   1038.7 16.0                                                 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Raising of V и ωn(ΔVn), defind on the meteorological data to the heights of rotor exis HRotor using extrapolation from 10–15 m often gives significant errors when HRotor > 35–40 m and depends on the choice of meteorological stations and approximation of vertical wind speed profile V(h). But worst of all in this procedure is the absence of true criteria. The available aerologic data gives such criteria. The ways – to measure at heights with the help of meterological masts or to use the long-term aerologic data !!! Our approach : to use both of them

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

высота, м

V,

м/с

модель ATMOГРАФаWASP по Zo = 0.1 и 100 м СалехардWASP по Zo = 0.1 и 200 м СалехардWASP по Zo = 0.1 и 300 м Салехардпо данным измерений на ВИК

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22

градации скорости, м/спо

вто

ря

ем

ост

ь, %

по данным ВИК (метеомачты)по многолетним метеоданнымпо многолетним аэроданныммаксимально вероятное

Высотные профили среднегодовой скорости ветра в г. Брест по данным аэрологических наблюдений (эксперимент) и моделям: ФлюгерХХI,

Флюгер 3.0, ГГО, ВИЭН, WASP .

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 10,0 11,0

V, м/с

Н, м

Эксперимент

ФЛЮГЕР XXI

Флюгер 3.0

ГГО 1989

ВИЭН 2002

WASP, Дания

Слайд 13 а

► New regularities and

features of territorial

and vertical distribution

of average seasonal and

annual wind speed (m/s)

in the territory of Russia

were investigated and

determined.

► Regularities and features of territorial and vertical distribution of average seasonal and annual wind speed mean square deviations (m/s) in the territory of Russia were investigated and determined.

It is established that they are distributed according to normal (Gaussian) law.

► Regularities of vertical profile of average seasonal and annual wind speed in different points of Russian territory

It is established that they are essentially differ from logarithmic profiles

Слайд 13 б

► Regularities and

features of territorial

and vertical distribution

of average seasonal and

annual specific wind

capacity (W/m2)

in the territory of Russia

► Regularities and

features of territorial

and vertical distribution

of average seasonal

and annual probability

of wind calms

(time % when wind speed

is less than 4 m/s)

in the territory of Russia

► Regularities and

features of territorial

and vertical distribution

in the territory of Russia

of average seasonal

and annual power

coefficient ( % )

Estimation of WPP economical efficiency in the territory of Russia (electricity cost price for WT V 90 with Capex 1500 €/kW O&M = 18 €/MWh )

Technical wind potential of Russia Determined on me the hypothesis on 10% land rent for the ”typical” WT V90 с HВК = 100 м and optimal placing of WT in the knots of regular triangl net with density WT N∆=1,155·(1000/n·D)2

for 1 km2. WT life time (20 year) mean coefficients accepted equal Кnid = 0,81 and Кava = 0,94. ► Mean calculated for Russia power coefficient for V 90 with tower 100 m is equal КИУМ ≈19,6% (counting the error of statistical modeling annual mean WT power РWT = 588 ± 87 kWh). ► Up to 30 regions of Russia have wind potential, sufficient for the effective use due to international criteria (КИУМ > 28%).

► Total Russian technical wind potential is 11,5 times as much as the consumption of electricity in modern Russia. It’share in Central, North-West, Volzhsky and South Federal Districts with 73% of Russian population is equal ≈ 30% (≈ 3450 TWh).

Thus, Russian wind resources have promising distribution across the territory for their industrial mastering. The required territory for WPP with power coefficient КИУМ

> 30% and total annual energy yield up to 80–85 TWh is about 0,7% of total territory of Russia.

Technical wind potencial in Federal District s of Russian Federation (GWh/year) in 2010

Federal District Technical

WWP Total annual

electricity Средняя

мощность ЭСpotencial yield, GWh в 2010 г. (ГВт) capacity (GW) energy yield, GWh capacity (GW) energy yield, GWh

Central 588 236.5 27.0 5.40 14.2 4.82 12.7

Northwest 1428 101.3 11.6 9.49 25.0 3.71 9.7

Southern 564 75.2 8.6 7.59 19.9 2.73 7.2

Volga 873.6 109.5 12.5 9.48 24.9 3.78 9.9

Ural 1 577 250.1 28.6 26.30 69.1 10.36 27.2

Siberian 2 754 209.6 23.9 2.18 5.7 1.06 2.8

Far East 3 689 42.7 4.9 2.50 6.6 1.01 2.7

Russia TOTAL 2010

11 473 1 004 117 70.4 165.4 27.5 72.2

The share of VPP use with power coefficient > 30 % in Russia, admissible on technology and resource, in 2010 could make 7%

Technologically admissible for WWP (20 % from total capacity)

Economically admissible for WWP (with capacity factor > 30 %)

№

Administrative Regions of Russian

Federation

Installed capacity of all electric plants in

2009, MW

Total annual electricity

yield, GWh

Technologically admissible WPP’s total capacity in 2030, MW

Expected WPP’s power

coefficient, %

Expected WPP’s electricity production in 2030, GWh/Year

Share of WPP’s electricity produc-

tion in 2030, %

Central Federal District  1 Bryansk region 38 0,048 8,2 29,0 20,9 5,82 Voronezh region 2107 14,1 5780 29,7 1508 5,93 Kaluga region 115 0,2 8,2 33,6 24,2 6,74 Kursk region 4300 24,1 990 29,2 2533 5,85 Lipetsk region 900 4,5 185 29,5 478 5,96 Oryol region 400 1,5 62 28,8 156 5,87 Ryazan region 3500 13,5 555 27,9 1356 5,68 Smolensk region 4000 25,3 1040 30,3 2760 6,19 Tambov region 400 1,3 53 29,4 138 5,9

10 Tver region 5800 32,5 1336 30,2 3533 6,0TOTAL 21670 117 4817 12507 5,8

Northwest Federal District 1 Arkhangelsk region 2200 7,9 325 28,6 813,4 5,72 Vologda region 1500 7,8 321 32,4 909,8 6,53 Kaliningrad region 700 2,9 119 31,2 325,7 6,24 Komi Republic 2500 9,5 390 29,6 1012 5,95 Leningrad region 7900 41,5 1706 28,1 4198 5,65 Murmansk region 3700 17,9 736 30,3 1953 6,16 Pskov region 400 1,9 78 28,0 191,5 5,6

Nenets autonomous region 400 0,8 31,5

TOTAL 17400 90 3707 9494 5,8

Southern Federal District 1 Astrakhan region 600 3 123 32,4 350 6,52 Volgograd region 4200 16,5 678 32,6 1936 6,53 Krasnodar krai 1400 6,7 275 32,5 784 6,54 Republic Kalmykia 10 0,001 0,0 30,7 0,1 6,15 Rostov region 4100 22,1 908 33,4 2657 6,76 Stavropol krai 4000 18,1 744 28,5 1857 5,7

TOTAL 14310 66,4 2730 7585 6,3

90,7 6,37 33

№

Administrative Regions of Russian

Federation

Installed capacity of all electric plants in

2009, MW

Total annual electricity

yield, GWh

Technologically admissible WPP’s installed capacity in 2030, MW

Expected WPP’s power

coefficient, %

Expected WPP’s annual

electricity production in 2030, GWh

Share of WPP’s electricity

production in 2030, %

Volga Federal District 1 Orenburg region 3700 16,8 690 26,9 1627 5,42 Perm region 6200 32,2 1323 30,7 3559 6,13 Saratov region 6900 42,8 1759 27,2 4191 5,4

TOTAL 16800 91 3780 9483 5,1

Ural Federal District 1 Kurgan region 500 2 82 30,7 221,0 6,12 Sverdlovsk region 9400 52,6 2162 30,4 5757 6,13 Tyumen region 14600 90,5 3719 29,7 9676 5,94 Chelyabinsk region 5100 28,5 1171 26,7 2739 5,3

Khanty-Mansi autonomous region Yamal-Nenets autonomous region

TOTAL 42500 252 10364 26295 5,8

Siberian Federal  District 1 Altai Krai region 3100 13,5 200 28,2 494 5,92 Novosibirsk region 3100 13,5 555 29,3 1424 5,93 Omsk region 1700 7,3 300 28,6 752 5,7

TOTAL 4800 21 1055 2176 5,8

Far East Federal District 1 Kamchatka region 600 1,7 70 28,1 172 5,62 Magadan region 1300 2,2 90 27,1 215 5,43 Primorsky krai 2500 9,5 390 28,6 978 5,74 Sakhalin region 900 2,8 115 30,4 306 6,15 Khabarovsky krai 2500 7,8 321 27,2 764 5,4

Chukotka autonomous region

TOTAL 8200 25 1011 2497 5,6

41 Russia TOTAL 122980 652 27010  29,5 70430 5,9

28,762,0 5,76

400 0,625

5,6

61700 2,5

10328,7

258 5,7

511200 76,1

312727,9

7644

Perspective regions of profitable WPP use in Russia up to 2020

(to the General Plan of WPP location in Russia, but our opponents insist on confirmation of our results).

Possible scenarios of wind power development in Russia

Prospective General Plan of the WPP location in the territory of Russia according to the opinion of Russian Ministry of Power is necessary condition for the technical and economic grounding of wind power use in Russia.

It defines possible rate of installation and total capacity of WPP, technical and economic effects and the main fields and shares of their use in different branches of industry, in different regions and in Russia as a hole, possible investors, etc.

All these points are key conditions for the development of effective legal basis for Renewables in Russia. Methodology of General Plan’s working out was developed on new :

► information basis (long term aerologic data jointly with traditional meteorologic data)

► technologies of analysis (PC, Data Bases, computer data processing)

► approaches to research (statistical analysis, modeling and forecast)

► ideas and established relations between objects of investigation (wind in pre-surface boundary layers, WT power indexes, economic conditions in Russia, WT economic indexes, ets.)

Слайд 14

Suggested main principles of WPP General Plan working out

1) To install WPP in places of electricity consumption and electricity deficit (the most of Russian regions)

2) To install WPP in technologically admitted amounts (20% from the total capacity of region concerned)

3) The rates of installation are planning on the basis of world experience

4) To install WPP in places, where they are economically more effective than traditional PP (the lowest boundary in Russia give PP on natural gas which are considered to be the cheapest) Criteria of economical effectiveness : cost price of WT’s electricity (CEl) must be 18 – 20% less then these for PP on natural gas or on disel fuel by

Formula for the prime cost of electricity estimation : N N

СEl = [ Capex + ∑ Opex (n) ] / [ КИУМ · Pном · 8760 · ∑ КAva (n) ] n=1 n=1

5) To install WPP in places with good infrastructure (road and electrical net)

Basic – agricultural lands of Russia in 2008 (≈ 700 000 km2 ) The most promising for WT installation are considered to be forest belts being as a rool in State property

6) To install WPP in regions with sufficient wind resources guarantee WT’s power coefficient not less than 30 %

Comparison of the prime cost price of electricity produced by wind power plant and

gas (GasPP) and coal (GasPP)

power plants

● With the increase of gas prices

the prime cost of electricity

of GasPP increased from 40 €/MWh

in 2007 to 57 – 65 €/МWh in 2015,

but for WPP it remaines constant

at the level < 60 – 65 €/МWh for the

power coefficient КИУМ > 35 – 30%

● WPP are more profitable than GasPP when power coefficient > 30%

● Replacing GаsPP by WPP – the way of decreasing of the electricity prime

cost price in Russia and => the way of decreasing (or at list remaining) tariffs

● The effect of decreasing of the electricity prime cost in Russia increases

with the WT’s share in total capacity of all electric PP

Position of «АТМОGRAPH», grounded since 2008: Russia has all the possibilities (resources, infrastructure, ets.) for Wind Project of total installed capacity up to 7 GW in 2023 – 2024 and 35 GW in 2033 – 2035. The main reasons for the fulfilling of such Project are presented bellow

Total capacity, GW Energy yield, TWh

Not less because loosing possibilities of : Not more because of lack of:

► Decree р-1 98.01.09 fullfilment ► legal and economic basis of WPP► increasing of cheap electricity production ► finances ► bounding of electricity tariffs reduction ► time for realization► decreasing of СО2 emission ► specialists

► economy of carbon fuel ► capacities of WT production► increasing of profit from fuel export ► reliability of electric lines (20% limit)

► innovative development of Russia ► wind resources

World experience of wind power gross (2011 г. – 235 GW)

With the State support the share of WT in total production of electricity ≈ 3–5% и 10–13% can be reached in 6 – 7 и 10 – 12 years and this times due to the increase of production capacities are shortening _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Country Year of legacy Result in Native WTbasis acceptance 2011 год production

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

France 2004 г. ≈ 7 ГВт 10 %Turkey 2007 г. ≈ 1,8 ГВт 0 %Poland 2005 г. ≈ 1,6 ГВт 0 % Romania 2009 г. ≈ 1,0 ГВт 0 % Chine 2006 г. ≈ 62 ГВт 80 %________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The rate of wind power development in the country define the existence and effectiveness of legacy and economical support

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

год развития ВЭуста

новл

енная м

ощ

ность

ВЭ

С,

ГВ

т

ИталияАнглияКанадаПортугалияГрецияТурцияРумынияПольшаБразилияАвстралияКитайИспанияИндия

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

годы развития ВЭ

уста

новленная м

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ность

ВЭ

С, ГВ

т

Китай

США

Испания

Германия

Индия

Слайд 19

Accumulative values of incomes, expenditures and their balances during for the 40 year (up to 2050) period of WPP 30 GW Project (with WT КИУМ > 30%) and GasPP of equal to WPP energy output 18 GW (КИУМ = 50%) with gas internal tariffs growth

in Russia following inflation or up to equal in the return to export ones” WT balance with WT ElEn saling cost = export cost of replaced gasWT balance reaches minimum (≈ – 12 bln €)in 2025 and then growing up to 0 in 2032(”long money” ! ) and up to ≈ 40 bln € in 2050

WT balance with WT ElEn saling cost = internal cost of replaced gasWT negative balance reaches minimum ≈ 16 млрд € in 2030 and then growing up to 0 in 2036 ( ”more long money” ! ) and up to ≈ 17 bln € in 2050 ► The source of covering of negative balance for GasPP – growth of the tariffs on ElEn

► The source of covering of negative balance for WPP – profit from gas export► The main investors of WPP Project might be State + large gas and oil exporting Russian

companies (GasProm, Lucoil, TransNeft. etc.)

Energetic, ecological, economic and other effects of the WT 30 GW Project 2020 2030 2020 2030

Total WPP capacity 7 GW 30 GW Russian cost of replacing gas 800 mln € 3,6 bln €КИУМ ВЭУ 30% 28% Export cost of replacing gas 1,5 bln € 6,8 bln €Annual ElEn production 17,5 80 ТWh СО2 emission preventing 9,6 mln tons 43,5 mln tonsWPP share in total ElEn v 1,3% 5–7% Cost of СО2 decreasing (20 €/т) 192 mln € 870 mln € Gas replacing 6 bln m3 27 bln m3

Possible ecological effect of large-scale use (30 GW) of VPP in Russia

At implementation of the scenario VPP of 30 GW in Russia total reduction of emissions of CO2 by 2050 due to replacement of part of power plants on gas or coal can make, according to calculations, 1,09 or 2,36 bln tons respectively, having reduced emissions of CO2 in energy industry of Russia to 8 – 10 %. .

Analysis of perspective directions of large-scale use of VPP

for power supply in energy industry, oil and gas branch, on transport, in agriculture

Expedient scales of effective use of VPP make:

– in energy industry – to 30 GW (production of relatively cheap electricity),

– in oil and gas branch – to 21 GW (power supply of oil and gas transport and crafts, gas liquefaction),

– on transport – to 17 GW (electrification of rail ways and highways)

– in agrarian and industrial complex – to 2 GW (power supply of objects and technological processes)

Realistic and optimistic Russian wind energy draft scenario (for the time being is discussed in Russian Power Ministry)

Total wind power plants installed capacity (GW) and energy yield (TWh)

Realistic and optimistic Russian wind energy draft scenario (for the time being is discussed in Russian Power Ministry)

Possible scenario of Russian wind power market development

Realistic forecast Optimistic forecast

Year Installed capacity

Cop. Fact.

Electricity yeild

Installed capacity

Cop. Fact.

Electricity yeild

MW % GWh MW % GWh 2015 250 25 548 250 25 548 2016 250 25 548 250 25 548 2017 500 25 1095 500 30 1314 2018 750 25 1643 750 30 1971 2019 750 25 1643 750 30 1971 2020 1000 25 2190 1000 30 2628 2021 1000 25 2190 1000 30 3285 2022 1000 25 2190 1250 30 3942 2023 1000 25 2190 1250 30 3942 2024 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942 2025 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942 2026 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942 2027 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942 2028 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942 2029 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942 2030 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942 2031 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942 2032 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942 2033 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942 2034 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942 2035 1000 25 2190 1500 30 3942

Total 18500 40517 25000

67452

Problems and necessary conditions of the Russian wind power large-scale development

► Absence of positive State Government position – the main cause of Russian wind power poor development

What is necessary

► Development of effective legal and normative basis of Russian wind power

► Creation of Russian production industry of the VPP of megawatt class with the annual productivity since 2020 up to 500 WT of 2 – 3 MW

► Creation of Russian production industry of the VPP of middle size (300 – 600 kW) for a severe frigid climate (200 – 300 WT / year)

► Creation of Russian production industry of the wind-diesel systems of middle capacity 100 – 5000 kW (200 – 300 units / year)

► Development of effective technology of wind energy accumulation

► Creation of the WPP exploitation infrastructure

► Creation of several demonstration wind and wind-diesel power centers

► Training of professional staff for domestic wind power industry

Perspective regions of profitable WPP use in Russia up to 2020

(to the General Plan of WPP location in Russia, but our opponents insist on confirmation of our results).

Conclusions :

► Russia has al (except one) necessary conditions (resources, unsatisfied consumption, infrasructural, territorial, economical) for the large scale (up to 30 GW until 2035) and economically effective (with cost price of electricity < 50 €/MWh) use of WPP for industrial electricity production in essential scales (up to 75 – 85 TWh / year ≈ 6 – 7% )

►The volumes of WT use for different brunches of industry may be as follows:

in Power Generation – up to 30 GW, in transport – 17 GW, in oil and gas industry – 21 GW, in agriculture – up to 2 ГВт.

► Effect of WPP use in different brunches of industry and in Russia as a hole in case of realization of suggested project might be as follows:

energetic – production of electricity in 2030 – 2050 up to 5 – 6 % on total consumption of Russia ,

total production of electricity for the period 2013 – 2050 – 1400 TWh, fuel saving from 2030 – 27 bln м3

/ year and for the total period 2013 – 2050 гг. – > 450 bln m3

economical prise of gas for export (400 $/1000 м3) – > 180 bln $ while the cost of the project WPP 30 GW – ≈ 100 bln $ ecological decreasing of СО2 emision up to 800 mln т (≈ 16 bln $)

► The main barrier of wind energy development in Russia – the absence of effective basis of legal and economical support for WPP.

Research & Information Center “АТМОGRAPH”

has the necessary information, methodic and computer technology

for feasible study, working out, technical and economical ground,

practical realization of regional and state programs and WPP projects

of any size in Russian conditions and economical situation and actively

participates in creation of large scale wind power engineering

Thank you

very much

for attention

We are open for cooperation: Tel./fax: 8-499-744-41-63,

E-mail: atmograph@gmail.com