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Laws of Laws of CyberspaceCyberspace
Jim GrayMicrosoft Research
with help from Gordon Bell, Nathan Myrvold
and laws by Bell, Moore, Gates, Joy, Gilder, Grove, Grosch, Metcalf, Mryvold,
Talk presented 10/9/98 at International University, Bruchsal Germany
http://research.Microsoft.com/~Gray/talks/Laws_of_Cyberspace.ppt
2
Computer Industry Laws Computer Industry Laws (rules of (rules of thumb)thumb)• Metcalf’s law
• Moore’s First Law• Bell’s Computer Classes (7 price tiers)• Bell’s Platform Evolution• Bell’s Platform Economics• Bill’s Law• Software Economics• Nathan’s 4 Laws of Software• Gilder’s Law of the Telcosom.• Grove’s law (1 and 2)• Moore’s second law• Is Info-Demand Infinite?• The Death of Grosch’s Law
3
1. We get more1. We get more
4
2. New overtakes old2. New overtakes old
5
3. Things get cheaper3. Things get cheaper
6
4. Newer & cheaper wins?4. Newer & cheaper wins?
Old
NewNew
Old
NewNew
7
Metcalf’s LawMetcalf’s LawNetwork Utility = UsersNetwork Utility = Users22
• How many connections can it make?• 1 user: no utility• 1K users: a few contacts• 1M users: many on net• 1B users: everyone on net
• That is why the Internet is so “hot”• Exponential benefit
8
Moore’s First LawMoore’s First Law
128KB
128MB
20008KB
1MB
8MB
1GB
1970 1980 1990
1M 16Mbits: 1K
4K 16K
64K
256K 4M 64M256M
1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB)
•XXX doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year–Micro Processor speeds–chip density–Magnetic disk density–Communications bandwidthWAN bandwidth approaching LANs
•Exponential Growth:
–The past does not matter
–10x here, 10x there, soon you're talking REAL change.
•PC costs decline faster than any other platform
–Volume & learning curves
–PCs will be the building bricks of all future systems
9
Bumps in the Moore’s Law RoadBumps in the Moore’s Law Road
• DRAM:•1988: US Anti-Dumping rules•1993-1995: ?? price flat
• Magnetic Disk•1965-1989: 10x/decade•1989-1996: 4x/3year!
100X/decade
1
100
10000
1000000
1970 1980 1990 2000
$/MB of DRAM$/MB of DRAM
.01
1
100
10,000
1970 1980 1990 2000
$/MB of DISK$/MB of DISK
10
National Semiconductor Technology National Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (size)Roadmap (size)
1
10
100
1000
10000
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Mem
ory
siz
e (M
bit
s/ch
ip)
& M
tran
sist
ors
/ ch
ip
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
Mem(MBytes)
Micros Mtr/chip
Line width
11
National Storage Technology (disks) Roadmap National Storage Technology (disks) Roadmap (size, density, speed)(size, density, speed)
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1995 2000 2005
3.5" Cap. (MBytes)1.3" Cap. (MBytes)
Data Rate (MBps)
Data Rate (MBps)
Density (Kbpsi)
Density (Kbpsi)
12
Gordon Bell’s 1975 VAX planning model... Gordon Bell’s 1975 VAX planning model... He didn’t believe it!He didn’t believe it!
System Price = 5 x 3 x .04 x memory size/ 1.26 (t-1972) K$
5x: Memory is 20% of cost 3x:DEC markup.04x: $ per byte
He didn’t believe:The projection500$ machine
He couldn’t comprehend implications
Costs declined > 20% Single user systems didn’t come down as fast, unless you consider PDAsVAX ran out of address bits!
0.01K$
0.1K$
1.K$
10.K$
100.K$
1,000.K$
10,000.K$
100,000.K$
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
16 KB 64 KB 256 KB 1 MB 8 MB
13
Gordon Bell’s Seven Price TiersGordon Bell’s Seven Price Tiers
• 10$: wrist watch computers• 100$: pocket/ palm computers• 1,000$: portable computers• 10,000$: personal computers (desktop)• 100,000$: departmental computers (closet)• 1,000,000$: site computers (glass house)• 10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle)
SuperServer: Costs more than 100,000 $“Mainframe” Costs more than 1M$Must be an array of processors,
disks, tapescomm ports
14
Bell’s Evolution of Computer ClassesBell’s Evolution of Computer ClassesTechnology enable two evolutionary paths:
1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance
??Time
Mainframes (central)
Minis (dep’t.)
PCs (personals)Lo
g P
rice
WSs
1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62
15
Region/Region/IntranetIntranet
CampusCampusHome…Home… buildingsbuildings
BodyBody
WorldWorld
ContinentContinent
Everything cyberizable will be in Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a Cyberspace and covered by a
hierarchy of computers!hierarchy of computers!
Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms
Cars… Cars… phys. nets phys. nets
16
Many little beat few bigMany little beat few big
Smoking, hairy golf ballSmoking, hairy golf ball How to connect the many little parts?How to connect the many little parts? How to program the many little parts?How to program the many little parts? Fault tolerance?Fault tolerance?
$1 $1 millionmillion $100 K$100 K $10 K$10 K
MainframeMainframe MiniMiniMicroMicro NanoNano
14"14"9"9"
5.25"5.25" 3.5"3.5" 2.5"2.5" 1.8"1.8"1 M SPEC marks, 1TFLOP1 M SPEC marks, 1TFLOP
101066 clocks to bulk ram clocks to bulk ram
Event-horizon on chipEvent-horizon on chip
VM reincarnatedVM reincarnated
Multi-program cache,Multi-program cache,On-Chip SMPOn-Chip SMP
10 microsecond ram
10 millisecond disc
10 second tape archive
10 nano-second ram
Pico Processor
10 pico-second ram
1 MM 3
100 TB
1 TB
10 GB
1 MB
100 MB
17
Gordon Bell’s Platform EconomicsGordon Bell’s Platform Economics
Computer type
$
units
Mainframe WS Browser0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Mainframe WS Browser
Price (K$)
Volume (K)
App price
• Traditional computers: Custom or Semi-Customhigh-tech and high-touch
• New computers: high-tech and no-touch
18
Software Economics: Bill’s LawSoftware Economics: Bill’s Law
•Bill Joy’s law (Sun): Don’t write software for less than 100,000 platforms.
@10M$ engineering expense, 1,000$ price
•Bill Gate’s law:Don’t write software for less than 1,000,000 platforms.
@10M$ engineering expense, 100$ price• Examples:
•UNIX vs NT: 3,500$ vs 500$•Oracle vs SQL-Server: 100,000$ vs 6,000$•No Spreadsheet or Presentation pack on UNIX/VMS/...
• Commoditization of base Software & Hardware
PriceFixed Cost
UnitsMarginal_Cost
_
19
Software EconomicsSoftware Economics
•An engineer costs about 150 k$/year
•R&D gets [5%…15%] of budget•Need [3M$…1M$] revenue
per engineer
Microsoft: 9 B$R&D16%
SG&A34%
Product&Service13%
Tax13%
Profit24%
Intel 16 B$R&D8%
SG&A11%
Product&Service47%
Tax
12%
Profit22%
R&D8%
SG&A22%
Product&Service59%
Tax5%
Profit6%
IBM: 72 B$R&D9%
SG&A43%
Tax7%
Profit15%
Product&Services
26%
Oracle: 3 B$
20
Grove's LawGrove's LawThe New Computer IndustryThe New Computer Industry
• Horizontal integrationis new structure
• Each layer picks best from lower layer.
• Desktop (C/S) market•1991: 50%•1995: 75%
Intel & SeagateSilicon & Oxide
SystemsBaseware
Middleware
Applications SAP
OracleMicrosoft
Compaq
Integration EDS
Operation AT&TFunction Example
21
Bytes/$ Bytes/$ DRAMDRAM
Byte
s/$
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
10000001970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Doubling time 964 daysDoubling time 964 days
Growth rate 30% per yearGrowth rate 30% per year
22
Nathan’s 1st Law of SoftwareNathan’s 1st Law of Software
It expands to fit the container it is in!It expands to fit the container it is in!
Software is a gas!Software is a gas!
23
Windows NT Lines of CodeWindows NT Lines of Code
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
7/92 2/93 8/93 3/94 10/94 4/95 11/95 6/96 12/96 6/97
Doubling time 866 daysDoubling time 866 days
Growth rate 33.9% per yearGrowth rate 33.9% per year
24
Browser Code Growth (MB vs time)Browser Code Growth (MB vs time)
1
10
100
2/95 5/95 8/95 11/95 3/96 6/96 9/96 12/96 3/97 6/97
Doubling time 216 daysDoubling time 216 days
Growth rate 221% per yearGrowth rate 221% per year
25
Nathan’s 2nd Law of SoftwareNathan’s 2nd Law of Software
• Initial growth is rapid - like gas expanding (like browser)
• Eventually, limited by hardware (like NT)•Bring any processor to its knees, just before the
new model is out
Software grows until it becomes Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Lawlimited by Moore’s Law
26
Nathan’s 3rd Law of SoftwareNathan’s 3rd Law of Software
•That’s why people buy new hardware - economic motivator
•That’s why chips get faster at same price, instead of cheaper
•Will continue as long as there is opportunity for new software
Software growth makes Moore’s Software growth makes Moore’s Law possibleLaw possible
27
Nathan’s 4th Law of SoftwareNathan’s 4th Law of Software
•It’s impossible to have enough•New algorithms•New applications and new users•New notions of what is cool
Software is only limited by Software is only limited by human ambition & expectationhuman ambition & expectation
28
The Software Crisis!The Software Crisis!
•Von Neumann had trouble •Software is always in “crisis”• Is there some limit to complexity?•Will software ever grow up? •Will the crisis ever end?
Of course Of course not!not!
29
The Perpetual CrisisThe Perpetual Crisis
•Panacea solutions•High level languages•Object oriented programming•Component software, ...
•Benefits absorbed by rising expectations
•Software will never be easy•Somebody will push the boundary
30
The Ultimate ComputerThe Ultimate Computer•Nathan’s Prognosis
•Learning more about the brain every day
•AI will happen•Computers with
same power in 20 to 30 years
•Brain has no Moore’s Law
31
Gilder’s Telecosom Law: Gilder’s Telecosom Law: 3x bandwidth/year for 25 more years3x bandwidth/year for 25 more years
• Today: •10 Gbps per channel•4 channels per fiber: 40 Gbps•32 fibers/bundle = 1.2 Tbps/bundle
• In lab 3 Tbps/fiber (400 x WDM)• In theory 25 Tbps per fiber• 1 Tbps = USA 1996 WAN bisection bandwidth
1 fiber = 25 Tbps
32
So
lari
sU
NIX
Inte
rnat
ion
al
OSFDCE
Op
en s
oft
war
e F
ou
nd
atio
n (
OS
F)
NT
ODBCXA / TX
Ob
ject
M
anag
emen
t G
rou
p (
OM
G)
CORBAOpenGroup
God Loves Standards: God Loves Standards: That’s why he made so many of them.That’s why he made so many of them.
1985
1990
1995
X/O
pen
DCE
RPC
GUIDs
IDL
DNS
Kerber
os
COM
Microsoft DCOM based on OSF-DCE TechnologyDCOM and ActiveX extend it
COM
33
Moore’s Second LawMoore’s Second Law
•The Cost of Fab Lines Doubles Every Generation (3 years)
• Money Limit:hard to imagine
10 B$ line20 B$ line40 B$ line
• Physical limit:• Quantum Effects
at 0.25 micron now0.05 micron seems hard12 years, 3 generations
• Lithograph:need Xray below 0.13 micron
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
M$
/ F
ab L
ine
34
Constant Dollars vs Constant WorkConstant Dollars vs Constant Work
•Constant Work:
•One SuperServer can do all the world’s computations.
•Constant Dollars:•The world spends 10% on information processing•Computers are moving from 5% penetration to 50%
• 300 B$ to 3T$• We have the patent on the byte and algorithm
35
Computer Industry Laws Computer Industry Laws (rules of (rules of thumb)thumb)• Metcalf’s law
• Moore’s First Law• Bell’s Computer Classes (7 price tiers)• Bell’s Platform Evolution• Bell’s Platform Economics• Bill’s Law• Software Economics• Nathan’s 4 Laws of Software• Gilder’s Law of the Telcosom.• Grove’s law (1 and 2)• Moore’s second law• Is Info-Demand Infinite?• The Death of Grosch’s Law
36
““
””
Vannevar Bush c1945Vannevar Bush c1945
There will always be plenty of things to There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing compute ... With millions of people doing complicated things.complicated things.
memex … stores all his books, records, and memex … stores all his books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibilityspeed and flexibility
Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopediaMatchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia
Speech to textSpeech to text
Head mounted camera, dry photographyHead mounted camera, dry photography
”” ““
““ ““ ““
”” ””
””
37
Kinds Of Information ProcessingKinds Of Information Processing
Point-to-Point Broadcast
Immediate
TimeShifted
conversationmoney
lectureconcert
mail booknewspaper
NetNetworkwork
DataDataBaseBase
Its ALL going electronicImmediate is being stored for analysis (so ALL database)Analysis & Automatic Processing are being added
38
Why Put Everything in Cyberspace?Why Put Everything in Cyberspace?
Low rentmin $/byte
Shrinks timenow or later
Shrinks spacehere or there
Automate processingknowbots
Point-to-Point OR Broadcast
Imm
edia
te O
R T
ime
Del
ayed
Network
DataBase
LocateProcessAnalyzeSummarize
39
Databases: Databases: Information At Your Fingertips™ Information At Your Fingertips™
Information Network™ Information Network™Knowledge Navigator™Knowledge Navigator™
• All information will be in an online database (somewhere)• You might record everything you
• read: 10MB/day, 400 GB/lifetime (8 tapes today)• hear: 400MB/day, 16 TB/lifetime (3 tapes/year today)• see: 1MB/s, 40GB/day, 1.6 PB/lifetime (maybe someday)
• Data storage, organization, and analysis is a challenge.• That is what databases are about• DBs do a good job on “records”• Now working on text, spatial, image, and sound.• This needs lots of PROCESSING too.
40
Database Store ALL Data Database Store ALL Data TypesTypes
• The New World:•Billions of objects•Big objects (1MB)•Objects have behavior
(methods)
• The Old World:
– Millions of objects
– 100-byte objects
People
Name Address Papers Picture Voice
Mike
Won
David NY
Berk
Austin
People
Name Address
Mike
Won
David NY
Berk
Austin Paperless officeLibrary of congress onlineAll information online entertainment publishing businessWWW & InternetInformation Network, Knowledge Navigator, Information at your fingertips
41
Magnetic Storage Cheaper than Magnetic Storage Cheaper than PaperPaper
• File Cabinet: cabinet (4 drawer) 250$paper (24,000 sheets) 250$space (2x3 @ 10$/ft2) 180$total 700$3 ¢/sheet
•Disk: disk (4 GB =) 800$ASCII: 2 m pages 0.04 ¢/sheet (80x cheaper)
• Image: 200 k pages0.4 ¢/sheet (8x cheaper)
• Store everything on disk
42
Crossing the Crossing the ChasmChasm
OldMarket
OldTechnology
NewTechnology
VeryVeryHard
Hard
hardhardBoringBoring
CompetitveCompetitveSlow GrowthSlow Growth
No ProductNo ProductNo CustomersNo Customers
product findsproduct finds customerscustomers
CustomersCustomersfind productfind product
hardhard
New Market
43
Billions of Clients Billions of Clients
• Every device will be “intelligent”•Doors, rooms, cars, ...
•Computing will be ubiquitous
44
Billions of Clients Need Billions of Clients Need Millions of ServersMillions of Servers
mobileclients
fixed clients
server
superserver
Clients
Servers
Super ServersLarge DatabasesHigh Traffic shared data
All clients are networked to serversmay be nomadic or on-demand
Fast clients want faster servers
Servers provide
data,
control,
coordination
communication
45
The Parallel Law of ComputingThe Parallel Law of Computing
Grosch's Law:
Parallel Law: Needs
Linear Speedup and Linear ScaleupNot always possible
1 MIPS1 $
1,000 $
1,000 MIPS
2x $ is 2x performance
1 MIPS1 $
1,000 MIPS 32 $.03$/MIPS
2x $ is 4x performance
46
““The mainframe is dead!The mainframe is dead!… and for sure this time!”… and for sure this time!”
PRICE
MainframeMainframe
ServerServer
PCPC
47
Useful Useful AphorismsAphorisms• There are no silver bullets.
Fred Brooks
• There is no such thing as a heterogeneous system. Butler Lampson
• You know you have a distributed system when a computer you have never heard of prevents yours from working.
Leslie Lamport
• Hubris: the Greek word for “second system.” Bob Stewart
• Software is like entropy, it weighs nothing, it is hard to understand, andit always increases.
Norman Augustine
48
Scaleable SystemsScaleable SystemsBOTH SMP and ClusterBOTH SMP and Cluster
SMPSuper Server
DepartmentalServer
PersonalSystem
Grow Up with SMPGrow Up with SMP4xP6 is now standard4xP6 is now standard
Grow Out with ClusterGrow Out with Cluster
Cluster has inexpensive partsCluster has inexpensive parts
Clusterof PCs
49
SMPs Have SMPs Have AdvantagesAdvantages
• Single system imageeasier to manageeasier to programthreads in shared
memory, disk, net
• 4x SMP is commodity• Software capable of 16x• Problems:
•> 4 not commodity•scale-down problem
(starter systems expensive)
SMPSuper Server
DepartmentalServer
PersonalSystem
50
Clusters Have Clusters Have AdvantagesAdvantages
• Clients and Servers made from the same stuff.
• Inexpensive: •Built with commodity components
• Fault tolerance: •Spare modules mask failures
• Modular growth•grow by adding small modules
51
Future Future SuperServerSuperServer
4T4T Machine MachineArray of 1,000 4B machines1 bips processors,1 BB DRAM 10 BB disks, 1 tapes1 Bbps comm lines
A few MegaBucksChallenge:
ManageabilityProgrammabilitySecurityAvailabilityScaleabilityAffordability
As easy as a single system
1,000 discs = 10 Terrorbytes
100 Tape Transports
= 1,000 tapes = 1 PetaByte
100 Nodes1 Tips
Hig
h S
pe
ed N
etw
ork
( 10
G
b/s
)