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Is there a global problem with respect to meeting energy demands?

If so why? If not why not?

If there is a problem what factors may contributeto the problems?

Where do we start to answer these questions?

Department of Chemistry

Energy and the Future

Prof. D. Venkataraman (DV)Department of Chemistry University of Massachusetts AmherstContact:dv@chem.umass.edu

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Is There a Energy Problem?

“Energy is the single most important challenge facing humanity today”

“The question of the possible exhaustion of the world’s oil supply deserves the gravest consideration. There isevery indication that we are face to face with this possibility”

Scientific American Editorial in 1913 Quoted in “ Current Thinking” by Heather RogersIn New York Times 2007

R. E. Smalley in 2004Testimony to the Senate Committee on Energy and NaturalResources, April 27, 2004

“Ours is going to be an administration that makes decisions on science, what's realistic, common-sense decisions. For example, circumstances have changed since the campaign. We're now in an energy crisis.”

President George W. Bush in 2001Answer to Helen Thomas’s Question in a WH press conference on Mar 29, 2001

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Is There a Energy Problem?

“A slim majority of Americans (53 percent) say the nation is in the midst of an energy crisis”

Newsweek Poll, 2001Reported in Newsweek, May 5, 2001

“In fact, there is no energy crisis and there is little reason to expect there will be”

Former Vice President Dick Cheney in 2001In a speech in Toronto, reported by Forbes Magazine

“Everything we think we know about ‘running out of energy’ isn’t just muddled and wrong;it’s exact opposite of truth”

The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, And Why We Will Never Run Out of EnergyPeter Huber and Mark Millis, Basic Books 2005

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Global Power Demand

Global Power Consumption (2004)14 Terawatts (TW) 14 x 1012 wattsEquivalent to each person leaving thirty 100W bulbs burning for a year

Source: United Nations, U.S Department of Energy

U.S. Energy Consumption, 3.3 TW (2001)Equivalent to each person leaving hundred 100W bulbs burning for a year

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Current Sources of Energy

Reconstructed using data from Prof. Nate Lewis’ Website at Caltech

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Known Knowns

Total Global Oil Reserves: 1293 Billion Barrels of Oil (1 Barrel = 42 gal. or ~159 L)

Current Global Demand : 90 million barrels of oil/day

How long will it last at the current rate? ~40 years

Expected Demand in 2015 : 98 million barrels/day

Expected Demand in 2030: 118 million barrels/day

Global Coal Reserves: Equiv. to 4800 billion barrels of Oil

Uranium Reserves: ~85 years

Thorium Reserves: 2500 years

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Known Unknowns

Would we find large oil/natural gas deposits?

Saudi Arabian Reserves = 264 billion barrels = 8 years of oil at current demand

Would increasing the efficiency through technology innovations lead to decrease in consumption of oil?

How rapidly would Africa and other under-developed nationscatch up with developing and developed nations?

Wood

HydroelectricPower

Coal

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Nuclear Electric Power

1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

10

20

30

40

0

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

U.S. Energy Consumption by SourceFrom US Department of Energy

Wood

HydroelectricPower

Coal

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Nuclear Electric Power

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Unknown Unknowns

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Energy Problem: Is there some truth or is it truthiness?

Total Global Oil Reserves: 1293 Billion Barrels of Oil (1 Barrel = 42 gal. or ~159 L)

Current Global Demand : 90 million barrels of oil/day

How long will it last at the current rate? ~40 years

Expected Demand in 2015 : 98 million barrels/day

Expected Demand in 2030: 118 million barrels/day

Global Coal Reserves: Equiv. to 4800 billion barrels of Oil

Uranium Reserves: ~85 years

Thorium Reserves: 2500 years

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Nature 1998, 395, (6705), 881-884.

10 TW power needs to be generated from non-carbon sources by 2050!

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Energy and Environment

Methane

CH4 (g) + H2O (g) CO2 (g) + 4 H2

Water- Gas Shift Reaction

CO + H2O CO2 + H2

C + H2O CO + H2

From Coal

C + 2 H2O CO2 + 2H2

Projected H2 Demand in 2040 150 Mtons

Current Production 10 Mtons

1 ton of H2 = 5 tons of CO2

“ We are facing a planetary emergency”Former Vice President Al Gore Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, Mar 21,2007

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Global Warming

“I am not sure that it is fair to say that it is a problem we must wrestle with”

Stephen Colbert On the Cobert Report, Jun 06, 2007

“If polar ice caps melt, then we will have more water to make Tang”

Michael Griffin Former NASA Administrator in an interview on NPRMay 30, 2007

Carbon-based fuels used to industrialize two nations with> 2 billion people?

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Energy and Economics

Reconstructed using data from Prof. Nate Lewis’ Website at Caltech

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Energy and Politics

Source: BBC NewsMarshall Ramsey, Jackson Mississippi, The Clarion Ledger,

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Oil, Energy and Politics

From Wikipedia Commons, Wiki entry on ‘Oil Reserves’

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EnergyDemand

The E3G Problem: Energy Demand, Economics, Environment and Geopolitics

Environment

Geopolitics

Economics

Climate ChangeNuclear Waste Containment

Non-uniform Distribution of Resources

Affordable Energy

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E3G Problem: Conventional Sources

Scenario 1:

Drill or ‘Explore’ more oil wellsUse Coal for PrimaryBuilt more nuclear plants

Less dependence on foreign oilMore energy security

More greenhouse gas emissionsGeneration of nuclear wasteGlobal nuclear proliferation

Need methods to sequester carbon dioxide!Source:http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/v33_2_00/research.htm

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E3G Problem:Scenario with Alternate Energy

Develop Renewable FuelsTap Wind EnergyTap Solar EnergyTap Geothermal Energy

Less dependence on foreign oilMore energy securityNo greenhouse gas emissionsEnvironmentally Friendly

Not affordableLow efficiencies

Scenario 2:

Need Efficient Affordable Renewable Energy Sources

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Emerging Problem: Availability of Fresh Water

Source: United Nations and International Water Management Institute

WE3G Problem: Water + Energy Demand + Economics + Geopolitics

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Need of the Hour

EnergyDemand

Environment

Geopolitics

Economics

Water

A well-thought long range policy based on facts and a political will to implement the policy

Public awareness of the emerging problems

Increase in workforce on renewable energy/water problems

Increased research funding for renewable energy/waterproblems

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E3G Problem: Renewable Energy Solutions at UMass Amherst

Solar Energy (MassCREST)

Solar Insolation = ~340 W/m2

Total Land Area = 150,000,000 sq. km

US Area = 9, 826,630 sq. km = 3341 TW

Source: Basic Research Energy Needs for Solar Energy Utilization, US Department of Energy

“I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. Whata source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

Thomas EdisonIn 1931 to Henry Ford and Harvey Firestone

From Current Thinking by Heather Rogers inNew York Times, June 3, 2007

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E3G Problem: Renewable Energy Solutions at UMass Amherst

Explore Other Fuels Like Hydrogen (MassCREST)

H2(g) + ½ O2 (g) H2O (l) + EnergyAvailable Energy at 298K = 237.15 kJ/mol

1 Joule = 1 Watt radiated in 1 sec237 kJ = 237 kW in 1 secIf I burn 2g of H2 for 1 sec, I can burn 2370 hundred watt bulbs for 1 sec

Hydrogen Production: How to break H-O-H bonds at lower temperatures?

Hydrogen Storage: How to reversibly convert H- to H2?

Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA